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Elections in Pennsylvania |
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Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024. [1] Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023. [2]
Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat was in 2016. [3] [4] [5] [6]
Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points. [7] [8] [9]
The race is expected to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean, but most analysts consider Casey to be the narrow favorite. [10]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) | $23,790,263 | $12,391,802 | $11,886,480 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [41] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 1,015,525 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 1,015,525 | 100.0 |
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Dave McCormick (R) | $11,052,879 | $4,660,701 | $6,399,998 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [41] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Kathy Barnette |
Doug Mastriano |
David McCormick |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | March 9–10, 2023 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
– | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David McCormick | 875,247 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 875,247 | 100.0 |
The Pennsylvania Libertarian Party officially nominated John Thomas at the party's state convention on March 2, 2024. [71]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [73] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [74] | Tilt D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [75] | Likely D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [76] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [77] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
David McCormick (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Bullfinch Group [A] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
National Public Affairs | March 2024 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 28% | – | 40% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–31, 2024 | 431 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
The Bullfinch Group [B] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 30% | 8% | 15% |
Emerson College | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | – | 13% |
Chism Strategies | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [C] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 12% |
Franklin & Marshall College | January 17–28, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 43% | 1% [b] | 2% |
Common Ground (R) [D] | December 8–12, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 27% | 13% [c] | 20% |
Change Research (D) [E] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 0% | 15% |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 2% [d] | 4% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 0% | 13% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | David McCormick | ||||
Libertarian | John Thomas | ||||
Total votes |
{{
cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (
link)
Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
|
Elections in Pennsylvania |
---|
Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024. [1] Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023. [2]
Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat was in 2016. [3] [4] [5] [6]
Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points. [7] [8] [9]
The race is expected to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean, but most analysts consider Casey to be the narrow favorite. [10]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) | $23,790,263 | $12,391,802 | $11,886,480 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [41] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 1,015,525 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 1,015,525 | 100.0 |
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Dave McCormick (R) | $11,052,879 | $4,660,701 | $6,399,998 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [41] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Kathy Barnette |
Doug Mastriano |
David McCormick |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | March 9–10, 2023 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
– | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David McCormick | 875,247 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 875,247 | 100.0 |
The Pennsylvania Libertarian Party officially nominated John Thomas at the party's state convention on March 2, 2024. [71]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [73] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [74] | Tilt D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [75] | Likely D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [76] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [77] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
David McCormick (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Bullfinch Group [A] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
National Public Affairs | March 2024 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 28% | – | 40% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–31, 2024 | 431 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
The Bullfinch Group [B] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 30% | 8% | 15% |
Emerson College | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | – | 13% |
Chism Strategies | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [C] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 12% |
Franklin & Marshall College | January 17–28, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 43% | 1% [b] | 2% |
Common Ground (R) [D] | December 8–12, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 27% | 13% [c] | 20% |
Change Research (D) [E] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 0% | 15% |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 2% [d] | 4% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 0% | 13% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | David McCormick | ||||
Libertarian | John Thomas | ||||
Total votes |
{{
cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (
link)
Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.