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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on July 30, 2024. [1]
Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023. [2] However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term. [3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are running for the Republican nomination.
The race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Gallego to be the favorite to win. [4] [5]Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a swing state. [6] [7] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, [8] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020. [9]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kyrsten Sinema | $17,047,387 | $7,065,565 | $10,153,343 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. [14] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. [15] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. [16] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election. [17]
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent. [2]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Ruben Gallego | $20,818,369 | $12,446,226 | $9,648,718 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego |
Alexander Keller |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 571 (LV) | – | 48% | 6% | 6% [b] | 40% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Kate Gallego |
Ruben Gallego |
Kathy Hoffman |
Regina Romero |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Greg Stanton |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
– | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% | ||||
OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
– | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||
Data for Progress (D) [A] | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||
– | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ruben Gallego | |||
Total votes |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kari Lake | $5,704,973 | $3,185,568 | $2,519,405 |
Mark Lamb | $1,589,090 | $1,335,475 | $253,615 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
George Nicholson |
Brian Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R) [B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 26% | – | – | 7% | 12% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 21% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Abe Hamadeh |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Brian Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 40% | 14% | – | 10% | – | 4% | – | 33% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 42% | 11% | 2% | 7% | – | 2% | – | 28% |
J.L. Partners | April 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kari Lake | |||
Republican | Mark Lamb | |||
Republican | Elizabeth Jean Reye | |||
Total votes |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Michael Norton | $37,501 | $509 | $36,991 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Arturo Hernandez | |||
Green | Michael Norton | |||
Total votes |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [5] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [4] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [101] | Lean D (flip) | April 17, 2024 |
Elections Daily [102] | Tossup | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [103] | Tossup | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RABA Research | April 9, 2024 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 28% | 36% [c] |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports (R) [B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Emerson College [C] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
J.L. Partners (R) [D] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [E] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [F] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 24% |
Normington Petts (D) [H] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R) [B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 37% | 21% | 2% [d] | 7% |
Emerson College [C] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 21% | – | 13% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 31% | 23% | – | 12% |
J.L. Partners (R) [D] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 13% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [E] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 35% | 17% | – | 12% |
VCreek/AMG (R) [I] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 1% [e] | 7% |
Tulchin Research (D) [J] | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 34% | 17% | 6% [f] | 4% |
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 33% | 29% | – | – |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 15% | – | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [F] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 41% | 37% | 17% | – | 5% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 37% | 19% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 36% | 15% | – | 8% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 25% | 26% | – | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | – | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 26% | 19% | – | 21% |
Normington Petts (D) [H] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | – | – |
Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | – | 19% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | December 21, 2022 | 678 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | – | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Generic independent (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bullfinch Group | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 10% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
32% | 27% | 17% | 23% | ||||
Normington Petts (D) [H] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 17% | 11% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 36% | – | 20% |
32% | 24% | 28% | 16% | ||||
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% |
31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Mark Lamb (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 0% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 31% | 16% | 13% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
36% | 29% | 21% | 15% | ||||
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
33% | 25% | 24% | 18% | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 27% | 16% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Brian Wright (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
37% | 25% | 26% | 12% |
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Despite speculation, Phoenix Mayor (and Gallego's ex-wife) Kate Gallego told Axios she does not intend to run for the Arizona Senate seat or for Ruben's House seat.
Ciscomani told The Republic recently that he was still learning his way around the U.S. Capitol as a freshman in the House and denied an interest in running for the Senate next year.
Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run.
One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told POLITICO she was not looking at another Senate bid
Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle.
"Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington."
President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her.
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on July 30, 2024. [1]
Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023. [2] However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term. [3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are running for the Republican nomination.
The race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Gallego to be the favorite to win. [4] [5]Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a swing state. [6] [7] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, [8] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020. [9]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kyrsten Sinema | $17,047,387 | $7,065,565 | $10,153,343 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. [14] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. [15] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. [16] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election. [17]
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent. [2]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Ruben Gallego | $20,818,369 | $12,446,226 | $9,648,718 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego |
Alexander Keller |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 571 (LV) | – | 48% | 6% | 6% [b] | 40% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Kate Gallego |
Ruben Gallego |
Kathy Hoffman |
Regina Romero |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Greg Stanton |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
– | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% | ||||
OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
– | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||
Data for Progress (D) [A] | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||
– | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ruben Gallego | |||
Total votes |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kari Lake | $5,704,973 | $3,185,568 | $2,519,405 |
Mark Lamb | $1,589,090 | $1,335,475 | $253,615 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
George Nicholson |
Brian Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R) [B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 26% | – | – | 7% | 12% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 21% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Abe Hamadeh |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Brian Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 40% | 14% | – | 10% | – | 4% | – | 33% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 42% | 11% | 2% | 7% | – | 2% | – | 28% |
J.L. Partners | April 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kari Lake | |||
Republican | Mark Lamb | |||
Republican | Elizabeth Jean Reye | |||
Total votes |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Michael Norton | $37,501 | $509 | $36,991 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [13] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Arturo Hernandez | |||
Green | Michael Norton | |||
Total votes |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [5] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [4] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [101] | Lean D (flip) | April 17, 2024 |
Elections Daily [102] | Tossup | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [103] | Tossup | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RABA Research | April 9, 2024 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 28% | 36% [c] |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports (R) [B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Emerson College [C] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
J.L. Partners (R) [D] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [E] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [F] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 24% |
Normington Petts (D) [H] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R) [B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 37% | 21% | 2% [d] | 7% |
Emerson College [C] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 21% | – | 13% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 31% | 23% | – | 12% |
J.L. Partners (R) [D] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 13% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [E] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 35% | 17% | – | 12% |
VCreek/AMG (R) [I] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 1% [e] | 7% |
Tulchin Research (D) [J] | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 34% | 17% | 6% [f] | 4% |
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 33% | 29% | – | – |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 15% | – | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [F] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 41% | 37% | 17% | – | 5% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 37% | 19% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 36% | 15% | – | 8% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 25% | 26% | – | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | – | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 26% | 19% | – | 21% |
Normington Petts (D) [H] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | – | – |
Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | – | 19% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | December 21, 2022 | 678 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | – | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Generic independent (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bullfinch Group | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 10% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
32% | 27% | 17% | 23% | ||||
Normington Petts (D) [H] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 17% | 11% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 36% | – | 20% |
32% | 24% | 28% | 16% | ||||
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% |
31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Mark Lamb (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 0% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 31% | 16% | 13% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
36% | 29% | 21% | 15% | ||||
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
33% | 25% | 24% | 18% | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [G] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 27% | 16% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Brian Wright (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
37% | 25% | 26% | 12% |
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Despite speculation, Phoenix Mayor (and Gallego's ex-wife) Kate Gallego told Axios she does not intend to run for the Arizona Senate seat or for Ruben's House seat.
Ciscomani told The Republic recently that he was still learning his way around the U.S. Capitol as a freshman in the House and denied an interest in running for the Senate next year.
Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run.
One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told POLITICO she was not looking at another Senate bid
Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle.
"Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington."
President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her.