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Elections in Maryland |
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Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maryland. The Democratic and Republican primary elections will be held on May 14, 2024. [1]
Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, he announced that he would not be seeking reelection to a fourth term in office. [2]
At the federal and state level, Maryland is a deeply blue state and one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation, with Joe Biden carrying it by 33 points in the 2020 presidential election. Elections in Maryland are dominated by the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs. [3] Democrats currently occupy both Senate seats, 7 out of 8 House seats, supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and all statewide offices.
Republicans have not won Maryland's Class 1 seat since 1970. [4] Although the entry of former Maryland governor Larry Hogan is expected to make the race more competitive, the winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win in the general election given that Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state of Maryland since 1980. [5] [6] [7] Hogan has led in most polls as of April 2024, however. [8]
In the early months of 2023, Cardin's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that he would retire. [9] [10] Several potential candidates, including Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone, began hiring campaign advisers in anticipation of Cardin's possible retirement, [11] which he announced on May 1, 2023, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years. [12]
The following day, at-large Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando announced that he would run for Senate. [13] He was joined by Trone [14] and Alsobrooks [15] later in the week. Upon Trone's entry into the race, the Democratic primary quickly developed into a contest between money and endorsements, [16] with Alsobrooks receiving major endorsements from the Maryland Democratic establishment [17] [18] and Trone self-financing his campaign with $23.3 million in personal loans, [19] which he claims protects him from political influence and would allow the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to focus its resources on more competitive races, [20] [21] and suggesting that he could spend as much as $50 million on the race. [22] Despite Trone's ad blitz, independent polling has portrayed him as only the slight favorite in the Democratic primary. [23] [24]
During the Democratic primary, Jawando and Trone have sought to present themselves as progressives and political outsiders, pointing to their careers and political records, [25] [26] despite Trone's record in Congress being more aligned with its moderate members. [27] Alsobrooks, meanwhile, has emphasized "kitchen-table" issues such as community safety and health care in her campaign while also focusing on her political career. [28] [29] Candidates are expected to campaign heavily in the Baltimore metropolitan area, which is seen as a key battleground in the Democratic primary. [30] [31] Alsobrooks and Trone, who have been viewed by media outlets as the frontrunners in the race, [32] [33] have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Alsobrooks' record as a prosecutor has been scrutinized by progressive-media outlet The Intercept, [34] while Trone has faced criticism for his campaign contributions toward Republican politicians through Total Wine & More [35] [36] and for his accidental use of a racial slur during a congressional hearing. [37] On the campaign trail, Alsobrooks has criticized Trone for these contributions and for spending heavily in the race, while Trone has characterized Alsobrooks as a "career politician" with an insufficient record on reproductive rights, criticized her for not including any Latinos in her cabinet, [38] and suggested she would be influenced by the corporations that had donated to her campaign. [39]
Jawando dropped out of the race on October 20, 2023, and later endorsed Alsobrooks, [40] leaving a contest between Alsobrooks and Trone in the Democratic primary. [41] [4] Alsobrooks was seen as the early frontrunner of the Democratic primary, but momentum quickly built up behind Trone's campaign as he self-funded his campaign and its nonstop media blitz, which has increased his name recognition and approval ratings in polling and overwhelmed the Alsobrooks campaign's resources. [42] The Democratic primary has been compared to the primary in Maryland's 2016 U.S. Senate election, in which Chris Van Hollen defeated Donna Edwards. [21] Upon former governor Larry Hogan's entry into the race, the Democratic primary largely transformed into a contest to determine which candidate had the best chance of defeating him, with candidates shifting from talking about their experience and leadership styles to talking about national issues—such as abortion, the U.S. Supreme Court, and Donald Trump—and criticizing Hogan's legislative record as governor. [43]
A straw poll was held during the Maryland Democratic Party's forum on the Eastern Shore, which was won by Alsobrooks, who received 125 votes to Trone's 98 votes and Dominguez's 15 votes. [138]
A televised debate between Alsobrooks and Trone hosted by WBAL-TV and WRC-TV was set to be held on April 23, 2024, but was cancelled after Trone refused to commit to the debate. [139] Both campaigns agreed to attend a different televised debate hosted by WBFF and WJLA-TV a few days later, which was held on April 19. [140] [141]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Angela Alsobrooks | Michael Cobb | Marcellus Crews | Juan Dominguez | Brian Frydenborg | Robert Houton | Steven Seuferer | David Trone | Andrew Wildman | |||||
1 [142] | Oct 24, 2023 | Maryland Federation of NARFE | Barbara Cuffee | N/A | A | N | N | A | N | N | N | P | N |
2 [138] | Nov 3, 2023 | Maryland Democratic Party | Sam Shoge | N/A | P | N | N | P | N | N | N | P | N |
3 [38] | Dec 3, 2023 | Latino Democrats of Prince George's County |
Patricia Villone William Ford |
Website | P | N | N | P | N | N | N | P | N |
4 [143] | Mar 2, 2024 | Montgomery County Women's Democratic Club |
Jennifer Rubin | N/A | P | N | P | W | P | P | P | P | P |
5 [144] | Mar 8, 2024 | Prince George's County NAACP |
Ebony McMorris Jordan Howlette |
YouTube | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
6 [145] | Mar 11, 2024 | Frederick County Conservative Club |
Jonathan Jenkins Matthew Foldi |
A | P | N | W | A | A | A | A | A | |
7 [146] | Mar 16, 2024 | Baltimore City Democratic State Central Committee |
Karenthia Barber |
Facebook I Facebook II |
P | P | N | W | P | N | A | A | P |
8 [147] | Mar 21, 2024 |
League of Women Voters of Maryland |
TBD | TBD | P | P | P | W | P | A | P | A | P |
9 [148] | Mar 28, 2024 | Democratic Club of Leisure World |
Louis Peck Erin Cox |
TBD | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
10 [126] | Apr 2, 2024 |
Maryland Matters Maryland League of Conservation Voters |
Josh Kurtz Staci Hartwell Linda Kohn Sydney Nwuli |
YouTube | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
11 [149] | Apr 6, 2024 | Frederick County Democratic Party |
TBD | P | A | P | W | P | A | A | A | A | |
12 [150] | Apr 7, 2024 | Baltimore County Democratic State Central Committee |
Jayne Miller |
Facebook X (Twitter) |
P | N | N | W | N | N | N | A | N |
13 | Apr 19, 2024 |
WBFF The Baltimore Sun |
Kai Jackson | YouTube | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Angela Alsobrooks (D) | $7,162,819 | $3,965,393 | $3,197,425 |
David Trone (D) | $42,416,906 [i] | $41,621,102 | $998,909 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [151] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
Angela Alsobrooks |
David Trone |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | – | 12% |
29% | 48% | 10% [k] | 12% | ||||
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group [B] | April 8−10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | – | 17% |
Goucher College [C] | March 19−24, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 42% | >1% | 24% |
SurveyUSA | March 13−18, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 28% | 40% | 11% [l] | 21% |
Braun Research [D] | March 5−12, 2024 | 525 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 27% | 34% | – | 39% |
Hickman Analytics [E] | February 13−18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 49% | 1% | 18% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 543 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 17% | 32% | 14% [m] | 37% |
Hickman Analytics [E] | January 18−24, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 34% | 45% | 1% | 21% |
Hickman Analytics [E] | November 27–30, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 41% | 1% | 25% |
RMG Research [G] | November 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 25% | 45% | 5% [n] | 25% |
Victoria Research [H] | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 31% | 36% | – | 18% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Angela Alsobrooks | |||
Democratic | Marcellus Crews | |||
Democratic | Michael Cobb | |||
Democratic | Brian Frydenborg | |||
Democratic | Scottie Griffin | |||
Democratic | Robert Houton | |||
Democratic | Joseph Perez | |||
Democratic | Steve Seuferer | |||
Democratic | David Trone | |||
Democratic | Andrew Wildman | |||
Total votes |
Several Republican candidates have filed to enter the race, with the most notable being former Maryland governor Larry Hogan. [152] Retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general John Teichert was long viewed as the frontrunner [153] until Hogan's surprise entry into the race hours before the candidate filing deadline, [5] [154] which prompted Teichert to withdraw from the race on February 16 and endorse Hogan, leaving him with only token opposition remaining in the primary. [155] Hogan's candidacy could transform the general election into a test of his popularity, especially among Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans 2-to-1 and were key to Hogan's successes in past elections. [156] The Republican primary results could provide an image of the allegiances of the Maryland Republican Party, whose base has grown frustrated with Hogan for opposing former President Donald Trump. [157] [158]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||||||
Moe Baraket | Chris Chaffee | Robin Ficker | Lorie Friend | Larry Hogan | John Myrick | Laban Seyoum | ||||||
1 [145] | Mar 11, 2024 | Frederick County Conservative Club |
Jonathan Jenkins Matthew Foldi |
P | A | P | P | A | P | P | ||
2 [147] | Mar 21, 2024 |
League of Women Voters of Maryland |
TBD | TBD | A | A | P | A | A | P | A |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Mohammed Barakat (R) | $1,117 | $45 | $1,072 |
Robin Ficker (R) | $4,211,831 [o] | $3,981,612 | $228,372 |
Lorie Friend (R) | $727 [p] | $3,224 | $0 |
Larry Hogan (R) | $1,905,363 | $391,173 | $1,514,190 |
John Myrick (R) | $5,163 [q] | $4,613 | $550 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [151] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
Moe Barakat |
Chris Chaffee |
Robin Ficker |
Larry Hogan |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 451 (LV) | ± 4.6% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 69% | 7% [r] | 12% |
SurveyUSA | March 13−18, 2024 | 300 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 55% | 3% [s] | 22% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 246 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 43% | 6% [t] | 43% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Moe Barakat | |||
Republican | Chris Chaffee | |||
Republican | Robin Ficker | |||
Republican | Lorie Friend | |||
Republican | Larry Hogan | |||
Republican | John A. Myrick | |||
Republican | Laban Seyoum | |||
Total votes |
Osuchukwu attended the NARFE Maryland Federation forum on October 24, 2023. [142]
The issue of abortion is expected to be a major issue in the general election, with Maryland voters set to vote on enshrining reproductive rights into the state constitution alongside the Senate election. If Hogan wins the Republican nomination, Democrats are expected to scrutinize Hogan's legislative record—including his vetoes on legislation to require background checks on firearm sales, increase the minimum wage, provide paid family and medical leave, and expand abortion care—and seek to associate him with generic Republicans. [171] [172] [173] [174] Maryland Governor Wes Moore is also expected to play a role in campaigning against Hogan. [175]
In April 2024, a coalition of the state's largest community activist groups and labor unions announced a campaign to dissuade voters from supporting Hogan in the general election. [8]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [176] | Likely D | February 9, 2024 |
Inside Elections [177] | Likely D | February 9, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [178] | Likely D | February 9, 2024 |
Elections Daily [179] | Solid D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [180] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
Angela Alsobrooks (D) |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 1,292 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 54% | 10% |
Goucher College [C] | March 19−24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 11% |
Braun Research [D] | March 5−12, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 50% | 15% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 44% | 19% |
Ragnar Research Partners (R) [I] | January 30−February 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 52% | 19% |
Victoria Research [H] | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 36% | 42% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
David Trone (D) |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 1,292 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 53% | 7% |
Goucher College [C] | March 19−24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 10% |
Braun Research [D] | March 5−12, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
Ragnar Research Partners (R) [I] | January 30−February 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 49% | 18% |
Victoria Research [H] | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 49% | 34% | – |
either Democrat would lose to Hogan if the election was held now
'I'm confident that in the 119th Congress, there'll be a Black woman representing California and she'll be joined by Lisa Blunt Rochester from Delaware and Angela Alsobrooks from Maryland,' McClellan said. 'So excited that we finally will have representation again.'
{{
cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (
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Elections in Maryland |
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Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maryland. The Democratic and Republican primary elections will be held on May 14, 2024. [1]
Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, he announced that he would not be seeking reelection to a fourth term in office. [2]
At the federal and state level, Maryland is a deeply blue state and one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation, with Joe Biden carrying it by 33 points in the 2020 presidential election. Elections in Maryland are dominated by the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs. [3] Democrats currently occupy both Senate seats, 7 out of 8 House seats, supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and all statewide offices.
Republicans have not won Maryland's Class 1 seat since 1970. [4] Although the entry of former Maryland governor Larry Hogan is expected to make the race more competitive, the winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win in the general election given that Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state of Maryland since 1980. [5] [6] [7] Hogan has led in most polls as of April 2024, however. [8]
In the early months of 2023, Cardin's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that he would retire. [9] [10] Several potential candidates, including Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone, began hiring campaign advisers in anticipation of Cardin's possible retirement, [11] which he announced on May 1, 2023, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years. [12]
The following day, at-large Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando announced that he would run for Senate. [13] He was joined by Trone [14] and Alsobrooks [15] later in the week. Upon Trone's entry into the race, the Democratic primary quickly developed into a contest between money and endorsements, [16] with Alsobrooks receiving major endorsements from the Maryland Democratic establishment [17] [18] and Trone self-financing his campaign with $23.3 million in personal loans, [19] which he claims protects him from political influence and would allow the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to focus its resources on more competitive races, [20] [21] and suggesting that he could spend as much as $50 million on the race. [22] Despite Trone's ad blitz, independent polling has portrayed him as only the slight favorite in the Democratic primary. [23] [24]
During the Democratic primary, Jawando and Trone have sought to present themselves as progressives and political outsiders, pointing to their careers and political records, [25] [26] despite Trone's record in Congress being more aligned with its moderate members. [27] Alsobrooks, meanwhile, has emphasized "kitchen-table" issues such as community safety and health care in her campaign while also focusing on her political career. [28] [29] Candidates are expected to campaign heavily in the Baltimore metropolitan area, which is seen as a key battleground in the Democratic primary. [30] [31] Alsobrooks and Trone, who have been viewed by media outlets as the frontrunners in the race, [32] [33] have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Alsobrooks' record as a prosecutor has been scrutinized by progressive-media outlet The Intercept, [34] while Trone has faced criticism for his campaign contributions toward Republican politicians through Total Wine & More [35] [36] and for his accidental use of a racial slur during a congressional hearing. [37] On the campaign trail, Alsobrooks has criticized Trone for these contributions and for spending heavily in the race, while Trone has characterized Alsobrooks as a "career politician" with an insufficient record on reproductive rights, criticized her for not including any Latinos in her cabinet, [38] and suggested she would be influenced by the corporations that had donated to her campaign. [39]
Jawando dropped out of the race on October 20, 2023, and later endorsed Alsobrooks, [40] leaving a contest between Alsobrooks and Trone in the Democratic primary. [41] [4] Alsobrooks was seen as the early frontrunner of the Democratic primary, but momentum quickly built up behind Trone's campaign as he self-funded his campaign and its nonstop media blitz, which has increased his name recognition and approval ratings in polling and overwhelmed the Alsobrooks campaign's resources. [42] The Democratic primary has been compared to the primary in Maryland's 2016 U.S. Senate election, in which Chris Van Hollen defeated Donna Edwards. [21] Upon former governor Larry Hogan's entry into the race, the Democratic primary largely transformed into a contest to determine which candidate had the best chance of defeating him, with candidates shifting from talking about their experience and leadership styles to talking about national issues—such as abortion, the U.S. Supreme Court, and Donald Trump—and criticizing Hogan's legislative record as governor. [43]
A straw poll was held during the Maryland Democratic Party's forum on the Eastern Shore, which was won by Alsobrooks, who received 125 votes to Trone's 98 votes and Dominguez's 15 votes. [138]
A televised debate between Alsobrooks and Trone hosted by WBAL-TV and WRC-TV was set to be held on April 23, 2024, but was cancelled after Trone refused to commit to the debate. [139] Both campaigns agreed to attend a different televised debate hosted by WBFF and WJLA-TV a few days later, which was held on April 19. [140] [141]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Angela Alsobrooks | Michael Cobb | Marcellus Crews | Juan Dominguez | Brian Frydenborg | Robert Houton | Steven Seuferer | David Trone | Andrew Wildman | |||||
1 [142] | Oct 24, 2023 | Maryland Federation of NARFE | Barbara Cuffee | N/A | A | N | N | A | N | N | N | P | N |
2 [138] | Nov 3, 2023 | Maryland Democratic Party | Sam Shoge | N/A | P | N | N | P | N | N | N | P | N |
3 [38] | Dec 3, 2023 | Latino Democrats of Prince George's County |
Patricia Villone William Ford |
Website | P | N | N | P | N | N | N | P | N |
4 [143] | Mar 2, 2024 | Montgomery County Women's Democratic Club |
Jennifer Rubin | N/A | P | N | P | W | P | P | P | P | P |
5 [144] | Mar 8, 2024 | Prince George's County NAACP |
Ebony McMorris Jordan Howlette |
YouTube | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
6 [145] | Mar 11, 2024 | Frederick County Conservative Club |
Jonathan Jenkins Matthew Foldi |
A | P | N | W | A | A | A | A | A | |
7 [146] | Mar 16, 2024 | Baltimore City Democratic State Central Committee |
Karenthia Barber |
Facebook I Facebook II |
P | P | N | W | P | N | A | A | P |
8 [147] | Mar 21, 2024 |
League of Women Voters of Maryland |
TBD | TBD | P | P | P | W | P | A | P | A | P |
9 [148] | Mar 28, 2024 | Democratic Club of Leisure World |
Louis Peck Erin Cox |
TBD | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
10 [126] | Apr 2, 2024 |
Maryland Matters Maryland League of Conservation Voters |
Josh Kurtz Staci Hartwell Linda Kohn Sydney Nwuli |
YouTube | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
11 [149] | Apr 6, 2024 | Frederick County Democratic Party |
TBD | P | A | P | W | P | A | A | A | A | |
12 [150] | Apr 7, 2024 | Baltimore County Democratic State Central Committee |
Jayne Miller |
Facebook X (Twitter) |
P | N | N | W | N | N | N | A | N |
13 | Apr 19, 2024 |
WBFF The Baltimore Sun |
Kai Jackson | YouTube | P | N | N | W | N | N | N | P | N |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Angela Alsobrooks (D) | $7,162,819 | $3,965,393 | $3,197,425 |
David Trone (D) | $42,416,906 [i] | $41,621,102 | $998,909 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [151] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
Angela Alsobrooks |
David Trone |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | – | 12% |
29% | 48% | 10% [k] | 12% | ||||
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group [B] | April 8−10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | – | 17% |
Goucher College [C] | March 19−24, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 42% | >1% | 24% |
SurveyUSA | March 13−18, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 28% | 40% | 11% [l] | 21% |
Braun Research [D] | March 5−12, 2024 | 525 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 27% | 34% | – | 39% |
Hickman Analytics [E] | February 13−18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 49% | 1% | 18% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 543 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 17% | 32% | 14% [m] | 37% |
Hickman Analytics [E] | January 18−24, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 34% | 45% | 1% | 21% |
Hickman Analytics [E] | November 27–30, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 41% | 1% | 25% |
RMG Research [G] | November 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 25% | 45% | 5% [n] | 25% |
Victoria Research [H] | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 31% | 36% | – | 18% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Angela Alsobrooks | |||
Democratic | Marcellus Crews | |||
Democratic | Michael Cobb | |||
Democratic | Brian Frydenborg | |||
Democratic | Scottie Griffin | |||
Democratic | Robert Houton | |||
Democratic | Joseph Perez | |||
Democratic | Steve Seuferer | |||
Democratic | David Trone | |||
Democratic | Andrew Wildman | |||
Total votes |
Several Republican candidates have filed to enter the race, with the most notable being former Maryland governor Larry Hogan. [152] Retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general John Teichert was long viewed as the frontrunner [153] until Hogan's surprise entry into the race hours before the candidate filing deadline, [5] [154] which prompted Teichert to withdraw from the race on February 16 and endorse Hogan, leaving him with only token opposition remaining in the primary. [155] Hogan's candidacy could transform the general election into a test of his popularity, especially among Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans 2-to-1 and were key to Hogan's successes in past elections. [156] The Republican primary results could provide an image of the allegiances of the Maryland Republican Party, whose base has grown frustrated with Hogan for opposing former President Donald Trump. [157] [158]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||||||
Moe Baraket | Chris Chaffee | Robin Ficker | Lorie Friend | Larry Hogan | John Myrick | Laban Seyoum | ||||||
1 [145] | Mar 11, 2024 | Frederick County Conservative Club |
Jonathan Jenkins Matthew Foldi |
P | A | P | P | A | P | P | ||
2 [147] | Mar 21, 2024 |
League of Women Voters of Maryland |
TBD | TBD | A | A | P | A | A | P | A |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Mohammed Barakat (R) | $1,117 | $45 | $1,072 |
Robin Ficker (R) | $4,211,831 [o] | $3,981,612 | $228,372 |
Lorie Friend (R) | $727 [p] | $3,224 | $0 |
Larry Hogan (R) | $1,905,363 | $391,173 | $1,514,190 |
John Myrick (R) | $5,163 [q] | $4,613 | $550 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [151] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
Moe Barakat |
Chris Chaffee |
Robin Ficker |
Larry Hogan |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 451 (LV) | ± 4.6% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 69% | 7% [r] | 12% |
SurveyUSA | March 13−18, 2024 | 300 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 55% | 3% [s] | 22% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 246 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 43% | 6% [t] | 43% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Moe Barakat | |||
Republican | Chris Chaffee | |||
Republican | Robin Ficker | |||
Republican | Lorie Friend | |||
Republican | Larry Hogan | |||
Republican | John A. Myrick | |||
Republican | Laban Seyoum | |||
Total votes |
Osuchukwu attended the NARFE Maryland Federation forum on October 24, 2023. [142]
The issue of abortion is expected to be a major issue in the general election, with Maryland voters set to vote on enshrining reproductive rights into the state constitution alongside the Senate election. If Hogan wins the Republican nomination, Democrats are expected to scrutinize Hogan's legislative record—including his vetoes on legislation to require background checks on firearm sales, increase the minimum wage, provide paid family and medical leave, and expand abortion care—and seek to associate him with generic Republicans. [171] [172] [173] [174] Maryland Governor Wes Moore is also expected to play a role in campaigning against Hogan. [175]
In April 2024, a coalition of the state's largest community activist groups and labor unions announced a campaign to dissuade voters from supporting Hogan in the general election. [8]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [176] | Likely D | February 9, 2024 |
Inside Elections [177] | Likely D | February 9, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [178] | Likely D | February 9, 2024 |
Elections Daily [179] | Solid D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [180] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
Angela Alsobrooks (D) |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 1,292 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 54% | 10% |
Goucher College [C] | March 19−24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 11% |
Braun Research [D] | March 5−12, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 50% | 15% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 44% | 19% |
Ragnar Research Partners (R) [I] | January 30−February 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 52% | 19% |
Victoria Research [H] | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 36% | 42% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [j] |
Margin of error |
David Trone (D) |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpinionWorks [A] | April 7−10, 2024 | 1,292 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 53% | 7% |
Goucher College [C] | March 19−24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 10% |
Braun Research [D] | March 5−12, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
Emerson College [F] | February 12−13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
Ragnar Research Partners (R) [I] | January 30−February 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 49% | 18% |
Victoria Research [H] | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 49% | 34% | – |
either Democrat would lose to Hogan if the election was held now
'I'm confident that in the 119th Congress, there'll be a Black woman representing California and she'll be joined by Lisa Blunt Rochester from Delaware and Angela Alsobrooks from Maryland,' McClellan said. 'So excited that we finally will have representation again.'
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