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This article is quite bad, the first two links are totally broken and don't even define the term! — Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.83.254.115 ( talk) 03:02, 21 June 2022 (UTC)
This article is such BS and countenances media-government propaganda. As the late Murray Rothbard and Walter Williams, economist at George Mason Univ., says GDP stats in the U.S. are overestimated, especially real (non-inflationary) economic growth. Understandably this miscalculation is more pronounced in an economic downturn. Similarly, the stock market keeps pace with inflation, so the notion that the stock market is the barometer of economic vitality is meaningless. There's no such thing as a jobless recovery. At the present pace of job creation, recovery would take 80+ years!
Though the article is in some places unsubstantiated, the original author does provide a good framework as far as breadth. I like all the different consequences of a jobless recovery. ~~ —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.109.156.229 ( talk) 11:03, 23 November 2009 (UTC)
This is probably the worst article I've ever laid eyes on. It's not even about jobless recovery but unemployment in general and belongs in a 9th grade dissertation. - 80.169.161.162 ( talk) 13:18, 10 December 2009 (UTC)
This is a political diatribe and deserves to be killed - I'd VfD it, except it's such a hassle to list things on VfD these days! - DavidWBrooks 17:15, 11 Oct 2004 (UTC)
WOAH. I just came across this article today, over five years since DavidWBrooks wrote the comment above, and it saddens me that it's still accurate. This incredibly long diatribe has been living here unmolested for FIVE YEARS? Mtiffany ( talk) 17:00, 25 March 2010 (UTC)
Image:Pyat rublei 1997.jpg is being used on this article. I notice the image page specifies that the image is being used under fair use but there is no explanation or rationale as to why its use in this Wikipedia article constitutes fair use. In addition to the boilerplate fair use template, you must also write out on the image description page a specific explanation or rationale for why using this image in each article is consistent with fair use.
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BetacommandBot 11:29, 6 July 2007 (UTC)
How do the Analysis figures illustrate a jobless recovery? -- Beland ( talk) 06:52, 2 November 2009 (UTC)
Added more to the Analysis section to explain why those figures are of interest, as they demonstrate a problem with the conventional wisdom that economic growth and employment growth usually happen in parallel. -- Freevolution ( talk) 04:39, 17 November 2009 (UTC)
This is among the worst written articles on Wikipedia and is clearly written to support a political stance. The person who keeps editing it is named "Freevolution", go figure. —Preceding unsigned comment added by TheRedVest ( talk • contribs) 20:13, 19 November 2009 (UTC) I agree, this does not sound like an expert in the field wrote this nor any scientific background. It doesn't sound credible. ~Anonymous
The article should begin with an explicit distinction between a high unemployment as a lagging indicator of recovery (indicating a normal economic cycle)and high unemployment as a jobless recovery (indicating a major shift in employment patterns). On the whole a worthy article, but there are one too many science fiction references in certain sections of this article and consequently those sections look dubious. N.B. There is a difference between economic solutions that are practical suggestions of economists or social theorists / political scientists, and the economic solutions that are speculations dreamed up by sci-fi authors. Reading a section that recomends Star Trek-like-replicators as a solution to a jobless recovery is unnerving. I would like the editors of this page to enter into an editing contract to limmit the proposed solutions to jobless recoveries to those practical for the current jobless recovery, and not offer the solutions to the jobless recoveries of the twenty third century.
I am not against some of the arguments presented here about nano technology, total transformations of our scientific capasities, or post scarsity economics. But consider it this way: if we did develop Replicator-like technology, would that realy be the end of a jobless recovery or would it infact spell the end of economics all together? If the solution to an economic problem is for economic to cease to exist, as we understand it; then i would argue that that diserves a page of its own. Something that is more universal than economics cannot rationally be included in the same category as a particular of economics. One page for describing the economic solutions to the economic problem of a jobless recovery, and another seprate page for descibing the scientific/techonological advances that may bring an end to economics all together. The singularity should not be on this page because it would only bring an end to jobless recoveries indirectly as a result of something else that was not actualy connected to jobless recoveries. If the singularity belongs on this page then why not also list 'an asteroid strike wiping out the human race' as a solution to jobless recoveries: after all the extermination of the human race would prevent any more jobless recoveries, but only indirectly -- as indirectly as the singularity. So please give these things their own page, which they diserve, but they are not conceptualy connected to this discussion; they are distinct issues.-- Nikopolyos ( talk) 10:52, 5 December 2009 (UTC)
Thank you for the reply. I read Kurzweil's book The Singularity Is Near when it was first released (i didn't like it - people have been using exponential growth of information to predict the singularity in a decade, every decade since 1870's, after all how can progress cannot be quantifed in a way that is ameniable to statistics? - but that's another matter). Perhaps reading his name lead me to over-interpret your refrences to him as avocating a economic recovery by way of a total change to life on this planet. But i do know his work and about 3d printing machines; i've seen them and their products: Impressive for solid tools, but not yet for fine machinery. Marshall Brain i do not know. Nevertheless the distinction i was trying to bring out was about categories. Say if we did develop nano techonology in the next twenty years, would that not be a change on a level more far reaching than economics? If we had nano techology would we even have economics any more, would we even worry / care about joblessness? I vaguely recall Kurzweil mentioning nano technology as a paradigm shift in our society. I think that's probably correct. Now, if we draw an analogy between this paradigm shift and historical paradigm shifts; we might get a clearer picture of how to classify this problem. Take the traditional shift from astrology to astronomy, or alchemy to chemistry. If we where wikipedians of the 15th centuary; editing a partchment on astrology would we include recient changes in astronomy? Or would we say that the change between the two was so revolutionary that they have decoupled, and that the changes in astronomy are no longer mentioned in astrology, but that in astrology we mention how astrology is being superseeded by astronomy, and leave it to the astronomy section to explain what changes astronomy will bring. The truth is, i dont actually know what we would do; as Kuhn said the boundaries only become clear with a few centuries hindsight; so it is just a subjective intuition i have, but i feel that radical technological changes may be touching on issues more general and steping off topic. But as i said it's subjective, so if i'm not convincing anyone then the article should stay as it is. (Oh, and I meant the asteroid example to be a reduction to absurdity; i wasn't expecting you to take me litteraly)
I do not have any suggestions of what specifically to do to alter the page / sections of the page. Except perhaps to suggest a section on 'affect of technological progress on employment' with three parts; one on how technology that actually exists today has been observed to change unemployment (industrialisation), two on how new technological change may affect unemployment in the future (self employment of programmers / improved robots in factories / working from home, etc), three how theoretical technologies may alter the very nature of employment in the future (3d, nano technology, singularity, etc). But i would not like to make such a major edit, without consulting readers to see if they would prefer it that way.
There is another twist to this; do we even need nano technology to bring about an end to scarsity. In the 30's Thorstein Veblen and technocrats argued that we already had a post scarsity economy and that scarsity was being artifically maintained to preserve power relations. I have seen Robert Reich mention something similar on his blog reciently. So do we even need any more technology to get beyond scarsity, and if we got the technlogy would we be alowed to use it to go put an end to scarsity?-- Nikopolyos ( talk) 14:08, 19 December 2009 (UTC)
I'll be blunt; to me, this article looks like a meandering economically-illiterate rant. It does at least use some references in places, although at the fringes of economics it's usually possible to find a source who agrees with any claim at all, including one generated by the roll of a dice. This article seems to be a big unstructured pile of what can best be described as non-mainstream economic arguments. Is it fixable? Going through it line by line is likely to be very time-consuming. bobrayner ( talk) 11:12, 17 May 2010 (UTC)
It seems right there you are taking a position by removing the alternative points of view. Those are precisely the issues one needs to know to understand why mainstream economics get so much about the Jobless Recovery wrong.Stagnant or declining real wages and decreasing employment in the USA for the past thirty years for many jobs supports one theory; rising wages and increasing employment in places like India and China over a similar time period supports the other. ... This clash is reflected in conflicted notions of what to do about this situation, given that many innovations succeed in the market because they are labor saving, yet paradoxically new jobs are often claimed to come primarily from innovation. (with a ref) ... But since new innovations can reduce the need for paid human labor, others argue innovation can be bad for jobs (even as it might be good for humanity as a whole). Who is right as regards job creation may ultimately depend on what exact innovations are being discussed or what timescale one is looking at. ... Many issues of economics remain contentious because many assumptions underlying economic theories are essentially statements on human nature, embody political values, or entail speculating about the potential of future technology. ... New areas of economic research have been emerging to consolidate ideas about ecological economics and the economics of technological change, emphasizing natural capital and intellectual capital. Many economists have contributed to these movements in different ways. For example, Robert Costanza suggested in 1997 that the global ecosystem could be valued at around US$33 trillion at the time, a breakthrough idea at the time, to recognize the dependence of the human-made economy on natural processes. ...
And you replaced it with:However, many mainstream economists might simply reply that the above is an example of the " lump of labor fallacy", and that limited demand is a not possible based on their views of human nature and so demand for human labor is indeed infinite. Professional economists are, for the most part, mathematicians of a sort. It might seem to make more sense to listen to psychologists, anthropologists, and sociologists than mathematicians about human nature, assuming human nature can be defined at all. Still, even if demand was potentially infinite like most economists suppose, and thus always growing faster than capacity, that lump of labor fallacy has nothing to say about robotics and automation once they exceed human abilities in the workplace at a lower cost. How to reconcile these two opposite positions remains contentious. But for mainstream economic predictions to be valid, two things have to be true: demand has to be effectively infinite, and robots and artificial intelligence must never equal the ability of most human workers for workplace tasks at a similar overall cost. We seem to already see evidence of both these assumptions by mainstream economists being wrong in restricted areas (like demand for housing has fallen off, and robots can paint cars better than people), but even then, the implications are not yet fully clear if these trends will generalize or how quickly they would do so. Almost all mainstream economists failed to predict the current economic downturn; many people, including some professional economists, are now questioning in general the value of mainstream economic models for dealing with unusual situations past the boundaries of those models' assumptions. With two refs: Confessions of a Recovering Economist by Jim Stanford The Black Swan Theory by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
without any citation for that last sentence.Mainstream economists consider that the above is an example of the " lump of labor fallacy", and that limited demand is a not possible based on their views of human nature and so demand for human labor is indeed infinite. Professional economists found their studies on observations of human economic behaviour.
"Harvard Professor of Divinity Harvey Cox writes in "The Market as God" ( The Atlantic, March 1999) [1] that the "Do Nothing" philosophy is connected to a rising tide of theological thinking in economics; he suggests the new "economist-theologians" have created an economic theology "comparable in scope if not in profundity to that of Thomas Aquinas or Karl Barth" which suggests that human interventions in the economy are ineffectual since the free market takes on the divine properties of omniscience, omnipotence, omnipresence, and omnibenevolence; he cites Alan Greenspan's testimony to the US Congress in 1998 against regulation of financial markets after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis as an example of a true believer increasing in faith after adversity. Alan Greenspan's comments a decade later show a shift in his faith somewhat, referenced above as "Alan Greenspan Destroys Deregulation in 16 Seconds".(two refs)".
"Many academics recently received a petition signed by 111 University of Chicago faculty members, explaining that “without any announcement to its own community, [the University] has commissioned Ann Beha Architects, a Boston firm, to remake the Chicago Theological Seminary building into a home for the Milton Friedman Institute for Research in Economics (MFIRE) and has renewed aggressive fund-raising activity for the controversial Institute.” It would be hard to find a more fitting metaphor than what the press release characterizes as “conversion of the Seminary building into a temple of neoliberal economics.” Even the acronym MFIRE seems symbolically appropriate. The M might well stand for Money in Prof. Friedman’s MV = PT (Money x Velocity = Price x Transactions). And the FIRE sector comprises finance, insurance and real estate – the “free lunch” sector whose wealth the Chicago monetarists celebrate."
There's too much going on above and in the article for me to comment on all of it intelligently. Freevolution, while there's plenty in mainstream economics (itself a pretty big tent) to be criticized, I'm afraid you're looking to this article to do too much of that, and it risks becoming a WP:COATRACK for general criticisms of mainstream economics, certain policies, and so forth. I'd recommend keeping this article on track by only referring to material/references which specifically talk about jobless recoveries in general, or a specific jobless recovery. CRETOG8( t/ c) 02:43, 26 May 2010 (UTC) It looks to me lik
I have requested third opinions, or any other comments/criticism, over at WikiProject Economics. [5]
bobrayner ( talk) 12:27, 18 May 2010 (UTC)
There are a number of issues with this article, but most obvious is its size - at 196KB, it's well over the recommended maximum length for articles. (See WP:Article size.) The normal solution is that parts of this article should be split off into separate articles to make it smaller and easier to edit. However, I note this article also has a more serious problem - much of it appears to be original research by the author, with no references whatsoever. If references cannot be provided for the claims and arguments in this article, then they should be removed; doing this would also cut down the size of the article drastically. Robofish ( talk) 22:24, 27 May 2010 (UTC)
Many dismiss this rather pessimistic view by pointing to the fact that, while technology eliminates jobs, it also creates new industries and employment sectors. This argument glosses over the fact that new technology-based industries tend to be capital intensive: they do not employ large numbers of people. Compare McDonalds with Google: In 2008 McDonalds employed 400,000 people with revenue of $59,000 per worker. Google had just 20,000 employees--each of which brought in, on average, over a million dollars in revenue. The question we have to ask is: What happens when McDonald's begins to look more like Google? ... The economy of 2020 may well be characterized by substantial, broad-based and ever increasing structural unemployment, as well as by stagnant or plunging consumer spending and confidence. Mainstream economists, content to rely on quantitative models built in the last century, are largely oblivious to and ill-equipped for the reality of the next decade.
This is the worst entry on this site. Almost all information on this page is peripheral, a normal reader would come away with no basic knowledge of Jobless Recovery. Wikipedia articles should be concise, direct and to the point of ONE IDEA. There is no room for socio-political posturing or advocacy in an encyclopedia article. It should be SCRAPPED COMPLETELY and written over by someone with more restraint and knowledge of Jobless Recovery. Please Freevolution, give this article up! Its truly a disgrace StevIstKrieg ( talk) 14:21, 10 June 2010 (UTC)StevIstKrieg
I think the article is well beyond the point where even moderate tweaks can bring it up to any thing half-decent. Basically everything that is unsourced and everything that is only barely relevant to the topic should be mercilessly removed per 'be bold!'.
Couple quick random observations:
Ok that's just for starters. radek ( talk) 22:10, 12 June 2010 (UTC)
Can we just delete the whole section under "Four long-term heterodox alternatives"? It is mostly irrelevant to the topic and is more or less a rant (though with some cites thrown in). Of course "heterodox" solutions and policies aimed at dealing with a 'jobless recovery' (not ones aimed at dealing with a 'recession' or 'unemployment' in general) should be mentioned - though even among "heterodox" theories there is a big difference between some theories which are simply held by a minority of economists/policy makers but have some arguments behind them, and outright nuttery. In that spirit the mention of 'heterodox' solutions should probably focus on old style Keynesian policy of government sponsored work programs and such and perhaps some Post-Keynesian ideas about changing the income distribution to alleviate unemployment. radek ( talk) 22:23, 12 June 2010 (UTC)
I've reverted a section deletion of Population growth vs. employment growth
The editor claims, WP:SYNTHESIS, yet there is no conclusion made here, just the notation that the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not offer the data in the age-ranges depicted, some grade-school addition and subtraction is explained and outlined in the accompanying text.
WP:SYNTHESIS states: "Do not combine material from multiple sources to reach or imply a conclusion not explicitly stated by any of the sources. If one reliable source says A, and another reliable source says B, do not join A and B together to imply a conclusion C that is not mentioned by either of the sources."
The section is entirely sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (thus no multiple sources) and there is no conclusion or implication because the table displayed is WP:CALC. The section quite relevant to the Jobless Recovery topic as employment creation, retirements and labor availability are primary components of the Jobless Recovery phenomena. 009o9 ( talk) 19:22, 25 February 2014 (UTC)
I'm adding a reference to the section, from the BLS which is focused on jobless recoveries. As for neologism, are you referring to the term "Jobless Recovery" or the suggestion that we should be allowed to look past last month's U-3 for explanations and solutions. Okay, I see, sou were quoting the MOS without providing a link. If you would have read the next section "Jobless Recovery" is WP:WORDISSUBJECT and the term is quite well documented in economic journals so also fail on WP:NEO. Could I get you to stop censoring this information if I collapse the table? 009o9 ( talk) 13:28, 1 March 2014 (UTC)
I'm willing to take on a cleanup of this article and I'm writing to see how many other editors are still interested in this topic. (When I added my section, this discussion was very dated.)
I believe that the section Recent employment trends in the USA should be removed from the Causes section, and "Recent..." appears to now be 3 years old. Some of that section looks okay, but it seems to be suffering from what I call drive-by edits -- a few un-sourced sentences pasted in around the content.
There is a ton of credible reference material out there, and for the United States, the Jobless recovery publications generally start with early 1990's, however some do note the Great Depression having a jobless recovery. I'm thinking that maybe an upper level section Recessions that exhibited jobless recoveries with subsections for each. Perhaps something from the Recent employment trends in the USA lecture can be salvaged for a Great recession section.
Perhaps an outline like this:
Lede
Additionally, I want to move the existing reverences to a Reflist | refs = section. I feel that it is a better format and makes it easier reading when the references tags are not commingled with the text. (It's still okay to add inline just easier to read) If there are no objections, I will work on the article directly as I find time -- probably mostly just quotes from notable economists 009o9 ( talk) 19:27, 2 March 2014 (UTC)
The table of employment and population statistics at the end of the article is several years out of date. Could someone update it? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.74.105.124 ( talk) 00:35, 20 April 2017 (UTC)
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This article is quite bad, the first two links are totally broken and don't even define the term! — Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.83.254.115 ( talk) 03:02, 21 June 2022 (UTC)
This article is such BS and countenances media-government propaganda. As the late Murray Rothbard and Walter Williams, economist at George Mason Univ., says GDP stats in the U.S. are overestimated, especially real (non-inflationary) economic growth. Understandably this miscalculation is more pronounced in an economic downturn. Similarly, the stock market keeps pace with inflation, so the notion that the stock market is the barometer of economic vitality is meaningless. There's no such thing as a jobless recovery. At the present pace of job creation, recovery would take 80+ years!
Though the article is in some places unsubstantiated, the original author does provide a good framework as far as breadth. I like all the different consequences of a jobless recovery. ~~ —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.109.156.229 ( talk) 11:03, 23 November 2009 (UTC)
This is probably the worst article I've ever laid eyes on. It's not even about jobless recovery but unemployment in general and belongs in a 9th grade dissertation. - 80.169.161.162 ( talk) 13:18, 10 December 2009 (UTC)
This is a political diatribe and deserves to be killed - I'd VfD it, except it's such a hassle to list things on VfD these days! - DavidWBrooks 17:15, 11 Oct 2004 (UTC)
WOAH. I just came across this article today, over five years since DavidWBrooks wrote the comment above, and it saddens me that it's still accurate. This incredibly long diatribe has been living here unmolested for FIVE YEARS? Mtiffany ( talk) 17:00, 25 March 2010 (UTC)
Image:Pyat rublei 1997.jpg is being used on this article. I notice the image page specifies that the image is being used under fair use but there is no explanation or rationale as to why its use in this Wikipedia article constitutes fair use. In addition to the boilerplate fair use template, you must also write out on the image description page a specific explanation or rationale for why using this image in each article is consistent with fair use.
Please go to the image description page and edit it to include a fair use rationale. Using one of the templates at Wikipedia:Fair use rationale guideline is an easy way to insure that your image is in compliance with Wikipedia policy, but remember that you must complete the template. Do not simply insert a blank template on an image page.
If there is other fair use media, consider checking that you have specified the fair use rationale on the other images used on this page. Note that any fair use images uploaded after 4 May, 2006, and lacking such an explanation will be deleted one week after they have been uploaded, as described on criteria for speedy deletion. If you have any questions please ask them at the Media copyright questions page. Thank you.
BetacommandBot 11:29, 6 July 2007 (UTC)
How do the Analysis figures illustrate a jobless recovery? -- Beland ( talk) 06:52, 2 November 2009 (UTC)
Added more to the Analysis section to explain why those figures are of interest, as they demonstrate a problem with the conventional wisdom that economic growth and employment growth usually happen in parallel. -- Freevolution ( talk) 04:39, 17 November 2009 (UTC)
This is among the worst written articles on Wikipedia and is clearly written to support a political stance. The person who keeps editing it is named "Freevolution", go figure. —Preceding unsigned comment added by TheRedVest ( talk • contribs) 20:13, 19 November 2009 (UTC) I agree, this does not sound like an expert in the field wrote this nor any scientific background. It doesn't sound credible. ~Anonymous
The article should begin with an explicit distinction between a high unemployment as a lagging indicator of recovery (indicating a normal economic cycle)and high unemployment as a jobless recovery (indicating a major shift in employment patterns). On the whole a worthy article, but there are one too many science fiction references in certain sections of this article and consequently those sections look dubious. N.B. There is a difference between economic solutions that are practical suggestions of economists or social theorists / political scientists, and the economic solutions that are speculations dreamed up by sci-fi authors. Reading a section that recomends Star Trek-like-replicators as a solution to a jobless recovery is unnerving. I would like the editors of this page to enter into an editing contract to limmit the proposed solutions to jobless recoveries to those practical for the current jobless recovery, and not offer the solutions to the jobless recoveries of the twenty third century.
I am not against some of the arguments presented here about nano technology, total transformations of our scientific capasities, or post scarsity economics. But consider it this way: if we did develop Replicator-like technology, would that realy be the end of a jobless recovery or would it infact spell the end of economics all together? If the solution to an economic problem is for economic to cease to exist, as we understand it; then i would argue that that diserves a page of its own. Something that is more universal than economics cannot rationally be included in the same category as a particular of economics. One page for describing the economic solutions to the economic problem of a jobless recovery, and another seprate page for descibing the scientific/techonological advances that may bring an end to economics all together. The singularity should not be on this page because it would only bring an end to jobless recoveries indirectly as a result of something else that was not actualy connected to jobless recoveries. If the singularity belongs on this page then why not also list 'an asteroid strike wiping out the human race' as a solution to jobless recoveries: after all the extermination of the human race would prevent any more jobless recoveries, but only indirectly -- as indirectly as the singularity. So please give these things their own page, which they diserve, but they are not conceptualy connected to this discussion; they are distinct issues.-- Nikopolyos ( talk) 10:52, 5 December 2009 (UTC)
Thank you for the reply. I read Kurzweil's book The Singularity Is Near when it was first released (i didn't like it - people have been using exponential growth of information to predict the singularity in a decade, every decade since 1870's, after all how can progress cannot be quantifed in a way that is ameniable to statistics? - but that's another matter). Perhaps reading his name lead me to over-interpret your refrences to him as avocating a economic recovery by way of a total change to life on this planet. But i do know his work and about 3d printing machines; i've seen them and their products: Impressive for solid tools, but not yet for fine machinery. Marshall Brain i do not know. Nevertheless the distinction i was trying to bring out was about categories. Say if we did develop nano techonology in the next twenty years, would that not be a change on a level more far reaching than economics? If we had nano techology would we even have economics any more, would we even worry / care about joblessness? I vaguely recall Kurzweil mentioning nano technology as a paradigm shift in our society. I think that's probably correct. Now, if we draw an analogy between this paradigm shift and historical paradigm shifts; we might get a clearer picture of how to classify this problem. Take the traditional shift from astrology to astronomy, or alchemy to chemistry. If we where wikipedians of the 15th centuary; editing a partchment on astrology would we include recient changes in astronomy? Or would we say that the change between the two was so revolutionary that they have decoupled, and that the changes in astronomy are no longer mentioned in astrology, but that in astrology we mention how astrology is being superseeded by astronomy, and leave it to the astronomy section to explain what changes astronomy will bring. The truth is, i dont actually know what we would do; as Kuhn said the boundaries only become clear with a few centuries hindsight; so it is just a subjective intuition i have, but i feel that radical technological changes may be touching on issues more general and steping off topic. But as i said it's subjective, so if i'm not convincing anyone then the article should stay as it is. (Oh, and I meant the asteroid example to be a reduction to absurdity; i wasn't expecting you to take me litteraly)
I do not have any suggestions of what specifically to do to alter the page / sections of the page. Except perhaps to suggest a section on 'affect of technological progress on employment' with three parts; one on how technology that actually exists today has been observed to change unemployment (industrialisation), two on how new technological change may affect unemployment in the future (self employment of programmers / improved robots in factories / working from home, etc), three how theoretical technologies may alter the very nature of employment in the future (3d, nano technology, singularity, etc). But i would not like to make such a major edit, without consulting readers to see if they would prefer it that way.
There is another twist to this; do we even need nano technology to bring about an end to scarsity. In the 30's Thorstein Veblen and technocrats argued that we already had a post scarsity economy and that scarsity was being artifically maintained to preserve power relations. I have seen Robert Reich mention something similar on his blog reciently. So do we even need any more technology to get beyond scarsity, and if we got the technlogy would we be alowed to use it to go put an end to scarsity?-- Nikopolyos ( talk) 14:08, 19 December 2009 (UTC)
I'll be blunt; to me, this article looks like a meandering economically-illiterate rant. It does at least use some references in places, although at the fringes of economics it's usually possible to find a source who agrees with any claim at all, including one generated by the roll of a dice. This article seems to be a big unstructured pile of what can best be described as non-mainstream economic arguments. Is it fixable? Going through it line by line is likely to be very time-consuming. bobrayner ( talk) 11:12, 17 May 2010 (UTC)
It seems right there you are taking a position by removing the alternative points of view. Those are precisely the issues one needs to know to understand why mainstream economics get so much about the Jobless Recovery wrong.Stagnant or declining real wages and decreasing employment in the USA for the past thirty years for many jobs supports one theory; rising wages and increasing employment in places like India and China over a similar time period supports the other. ... This clash is reflected in conflicted notions of what to do about this situation, given that many innovations succeed in the market because they are labor saving, yet paradoxically new jobs are often claimed to come primarily from innovation. (with a ref) ... But since new innovations can reduce the need for paid human labor, others argue innovation can be bad for jobs (even as it might be good for humanity as a whole). Who is right as regards job creation may ultimately depend on what exact innovations are being discussed or what timescale one is looking at. ... Many issues of economics remain contentious because many assumptions underlying economic theories are essentially statements on human nature, embody political values, or entail speculating about the potential of future technology. ... New areas of economic research have been emerging to consolidate ideas about ecological economics and the economics of technological change, emphasizing natural capital and intellectual capital. Many economists have contributed to these movements in different ways. For example, Robert Costanza suggested in 1997 that the global ecosystem could be valued at around US$33 trillion at the time, a breakthrough idea at the time, to recognize the dependence of the human-made economy on natural processes. ...
And you replaced it with:However, many mainstream economists might simply reply that the above is an example of the " lump of labor fallacy", and that limited demand is a not possible based on their views of human nature and so demand for human labor is indeed infinite. Professional economists are, for the most part, mathematicians of a sort. It might seem to make more sense to listen to psychologists, anthropologists, and sociologists than mathematicians about human nature, assuming human nature can be defined at all. Still, even if demand was potentially infinite like most economists suppose, and thus always growing faster than capacity, that lump of labor fallacy has nothing to say about robotics and automation once they exceed human abilities in the workplace at a lower cost. How to reconcile these two opposite positions remains contentious. But for mainstream economic predictions to be valid, two things have to be true: demand has to be effectively infinite, and robots and artificial intelligence must never equal the ability of most human workers for workplace tasks at a similar overall cost. We seem to already see evidence of both these assumptions by mainstream economists being wrong in restricted areas (like demand for housing has fallen off, and robots can paint cars better than people), but even then, the implications are not yet fully clear if these trends will generalize or how quickly they would do so. Almost all mainstream economists failed to predict the current economic downturn; many people, including some professional economists, are now questioning in general the value of mainstream economic models for dealing with unusual situations past the boundaries of those models' assumptions. With two refs: Confessions of a Recovering Economist by Jim Stanford The Black Swan Theory by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
without any citation for that last sentence.Mainstream economists consider that the above is an example of the " lump of labor fallacy", and that limited demand is a not possible based on their views of human nature and so demand for human labor is indeed infinite. Professional economists found their studies on observations of human economic behaviour.
"Harvard Professor of Divinity Harvey Cox writes in "The Market as God" ( The Atlantic, March 1999) [1] that the "Do Nothing" philosophy is connected to a rising tide of theological thinking in economics; he suggests the new "economist-theologians" have created an economic theology "comparable in scope if not in profundity to that of Thomas Aquinas or Karl Barth" which suggests that human interventions in the economy are ineffectual since the free market takes on the divine properties of omniscience, omnipotence, omnipresence, and omnibenevolence; he cites Alan Greenspan's testimony to the US Congress in 1998 against regulation of financial markets after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis as an example of a true believer increasing in faith after adversity. Alan Greenspan's comments a decade later show a shift in his faith somewhat, referenced above as "Alan Greenspan Destroys Deregulation in 16 Seconds".(two refs)".
"Many academics recently received a petition signed by 111 University of Chicago faculty members, explaining that “without any announcement to its own community, [the University] has commissioned Ann Beha Architects, a Boston firm, to remake the Chicago Theological Seminary building into a home for the Milton Friedman Institute for Research in Economics (MFIRE) and has renewed aggressive fund-raising activity for the controversial Institute.” It would be hard to find a more fitting metaphor than what the press release characterizes as “conversion of the Seminary building into a temple of neoliberal economics.” Even the acronym MFIRE seems symbolically appropriate. The M might well stand for Money in Prof. Friedman’s MV = PT (Money x Velocity = Price x Transactions). And the FIRE sector comprises finance, insurance and real estate – the “free lunch” sector whose wealth the Chicago monetarists celebrate."
There's too much going on above and in the article for me to comment on all of it intelligently. Freevolution, while there's plenty in mainstream economics (itself a pretty big tent) to be criticized, I'm afraid you're looking to this article to do too much of that, and it risks becoming a WP:COATRACK for general criticisms of mainstream economics, certain policies, and so forth. I'd recommend keeping this article on track by only referring to material/references which specifically talk about jobless recoveries in general, or a specific jobless recovery. CRETOG8( t/ c) 02:43, 26 May 2010 (UTC) It looks to me lik
I have requested third opinions, or any other comments/criticism, over at WikiProject Economics. [5]
bobrayner ( talk) 12:27, 18 May 2010 (UTC)
There are a number of issues with this article, but most obvious is its size - at 196KB, it's well over the recommended maximum length for articles. (See WP:Article size.) The normal solution is that parts of this article should be split off into separate articles to make it smaller and easier to edit. However, I note this article also has a more serious problem - much of it appears to be original research by the author, with no references whatsoever. If references cannot be provided for the claims and arguments in this article, then they should be removed; doing this would also cut down the size of the article drastically. Robofish ( talk) 22:24, 27 May 2010 (UTC)
Many dismiss this rather pessimistic view by pointing to the fact that, while technology eliminates jobs, it also creates new industries and employment sectors. This argument glosses over the fact that new technology-based industries tend to be capital intensive: they do not employ large numbers of people. Compare McDonalds with Google: In 2008 McDonalds employed 400,000 people with revenue of $59,000 per worker. Google had just 20,000 employees--each of which brought in, on average, over a million dollars in revenue. The question we have to ask is: What happens when McDonald's begins to look more like Google? ... The economy of 2020 may well be characterized by substantial, broad-based and ever increasing structural unemployment, as well as by stagnant or plunging consumer spending and confidence. Mainstream economists, content to rely on quantitative models built in the last century, are largely oblivious to and ill-equipped for the reality of the next decade.
This is the worst entry on this site. Almost all information on this page is peripheral, a normal reader would come away with no basic knowledge of Jobless Recovery. Wikipedia articles should be concise, direct and to the point of ONE IDEA. There is no room for socio-political posturing or advocacy in an encyclopedia article. It should be SCRAPPED COMPLETELY and written over by someone with more restraint and knowledge of Jobless Recovery. Please Freevolution, give this article up! Its truly a disgrace StevIstKrieg ( talk) 14:21, 10 June 2010 (UTC)StevIstKrieg
I think the article is well beyond the point where even moderate tweaks can bring it up to any thing half-decent. Basically everything that is unsourced and everything that is only barely relevant to the topic should be mercilessly removed per 'be bold!'.
Couple quick random observations:
Ok that's just for starters. radek ( talk) 22:10, 12 June 2010 (UTC)
Can we just delete the whole section under "Four long-term heterodox alternatives"? It is mostly irrelevant to the topic and is more or less a rant (though with some cites thrown in). Of course "heterodox" solutions and policies aimed at dealing with a 'jobless recovery' (not ones aimed at dealing with a 'recession' or 'unemployment' in general) should be mentioned - though even among "heterodox" theories there is a big difference between some theories which are simply held by a minority of economists/policy makers but have some arguments behind them, and outright nuttery. In that spirit the mention of 'heterodox' solutions should probably focus on old style Keynesian policy of government sponsored work programs and such and perhaps some Post-Keynesian ideas about changing the income distribution to alleviate unemployment. radek ( talk) 22:23, 12 June 2010 (UTC)
I've reverted a section deletion of Population growth vs. employment growth
The editor claims, WP:SYNTHESIS, yet there is no conclusion made here, just the notation that the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not offer the data in the age-ranges depicted, some grade-school addition and subtraction is explained and outlined in the accompanying text.
WP:SYNTHESIS states: "Do not combine material from multiple sources to reach or imply a conclusion not explicitly stated by any of the sources. If one reliable source says A, and another reliable source says B, do not join A and B together to imply a conclusion C that is not mentioned by either of the sources."
The section is entirely sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (thus no multiple sources) and there is no conclusion or implication because the table displayed is WP:CALC. The section quite relevant to the Jobless Recovery topic as employment creation, retirements and labor availability are primary components of the Jobless Recovery phenomena. 009o9 ( talk) 19:22, 25 February 2014 (UTC)
I'm adding a reference to the section, from the BLS which is focused on jobless recoveries. As for neologism, are you referring to the term "Jobless Recovery" or the suggestion that we should be allowed to look past last month's U-3 for explanations and solutions. Okay, I see, sou were quoting the MOS without providing a link. If you would have read the next section "Jobless Recovery" is WP:WORDISSUBJECT and the term is quite well documented in economic journals so also fail on WP:NEO. Could I get you to stop censoring this information if I collapse the table? 009o9 ( talk) 13:28, 1 March 2014 (UTC)
I'm willing to take on a cleanup of this article and I'm writing to see how many other editors are still interested in this topic. (When I added my section, this discussion was very dated.)
I believe that the section Recent employment trends in the USA should be removed from the Causes section, and "Recent..." appears to now be 3 years old. Some of that section looks okay, but it seems to be suffering from what I call drive-by edits -- a few un-sourced sentences pasted in around the content.
There is a ton of credible reference material out there, and for the United States, the Jobless recovery publications generally start with early 1990's, however some do note the Great Depression having a jobless recovery. I'm thinking that maybe an upper level section Recessions that exhibited jobless recoveries with subsections for each. Perhaps something from the Recent employment trends in the USA lecture can be salvaged for a Great recession section.
Perhaps an outline like this:
Lede
Additionally, I want to move the existing reverences to a Reflist | refs = section. I feel that it is a better format and makes it easier reading when the references tags are not commingled with the text. (It's still okay to add inline just easier to read) If there are no objections, I will work on the article directly as I find time -- probably mostly just quotes from notable economists 009o9 ( talk) 19:27, 2 March 2014 (UTC)
The table of employment and population statistics at the end of the article is several years out of date. Could someone update it? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.74.105.124 ( talk) 00:35, 20 April 2017 (UTC)
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