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The following sentence and the mobillized sources are worth discussing: "The scientific consensus is that it is a zoonotic virus that arose from bats in a natural setting". This sentence is based on Andersen et al. using RaTG13, the closest known virus to SARS-CoV-2, but which has been exclusively studied by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. There is therefore no possibility for the rest of the scientific community to verify the information transmitted about it. Second, for Latinne et al. this is a paper that was primarily written by members of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the EcoHealth Alliance, which has funded research on bat coronaviruses in that lab. But most importantly, RaTG13, again unverifiable to the rest of the scientific community, is used. So there is a problem in the diversity of sources cited here, but more generally, in the verifiability of the scientific information itself. Hence the calls in the press and Science to be able to verify this information. CyberDiderot ( talk) 17:44, 24 May 2021 (UTC)
A statement that all or most scientists or scholars hold a certain view requires reliable sourcing that directly says that all or most scientists or scholars hold that view.... Stated simply, any statement in Wikipedia that academic consensus exists on a topic must be sourced rather than being based on the opinion or assessment of editors.Could you point to where the cited sources make any direct claims about zoonotic origin being the scientific consensus? I have not been able to find that claim supported anywhere in the sources. Stonkaments ( talk) 00:04, 25 May 2021 (UTC)
deliberate release or deliberate bioengineering of SARS-CoV-2 for release, the latter has been ruled out by other scientists following analyses of the genome, as per the WHO-China report. By extension, there appears to be consensus that the virus descends from a natural virus, with the exact pathway for the evolutionary gap and precise point of zoonosis being up for debate. Given this, I'd suggest it's only the "arose from bats in a natural setting" that's not yet fully settled (as growth in lab culture is not a "natural setting"). I suspect we can find a clear, concise way to explain this. For reference, here's the current language in the Investigations section:
There are multiple proposed explanations for how SARS-CoV-2 was introduced into, and evolved adaptations suited to, the human population. There is significant evidence and agreement that the most likely original viral reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 is horseshoe bats, with the closest known viral relative being RaTG13. The evolutionary distance between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 is estimated to be between 20 and 90 years, [1] which each origin hypothesis attempts to explain in a different way. These scenarios continue to be investigated in order to identify the definitive origin of the virus.Better synchronizing these two paragraphs should be done. Bakkster Man ( talk) 13:47, 25 May 2021 (UTC)
Physiologically, there can no longer be a consensus since the pillars of zoonotic theory have fallen:
1) After 15 months and 80,000 animals tested, no intermediate host was found, SARS1 requested 4 months, MERS 9; 2) Ralph Baric admitted that himself could manipulate a virus with seamless technologies, not allowing anyone to verify if it is artificial; 3) With the last 3 doctoral theses of WIV students coming to light that demonstrate the presence in their archives of various unpublished sars-related backbones and their pioneering works with seamless technologies the same signatories of the letter for Science have revealed that they're no longer able to support natural theory with greater conviction; 4) The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other.
Francesco espo ( talk) 00:51, 26 May 2021 (UTC)
several signatories of that letter have come out and said they do not believe equal weight should be given to the two possibilitiesand
the authors do not believe what you've said they believe.. You should also reread the Science letter [5], as it clearly crititizes the WHO report in how
the two theories were not given balanced consideration, concluding that
We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data. As the authors of the New York Times article say, the Science letter
did not come down in favor of one scenario or another, and several of the signatories
think it is more likely than not that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from an animal reservoir rather than a lab, which they correctly attribute as opinion, rather than fact. These scientists, regardless of their expert opinions, are making a stand for the scientific process, so I agree with CyberDiderot, that regardless of our WP:OPINIONs, we should adhere to WP:V and not proclaim a consensus where there isn’t one.
pioneering work with seamless technologies?" I don't see anything of the kind in that article. Just typical run of the mill virological techniques that everyone was using in 2016. I see basic restriction enzyme cloning, introduction of mutations to avoid early termination, etc. They literally had to insert mutations to make it work in a unidirectional coding, how can that be described as "seamless?" They had to mutate it to insert cloning sites at the point where ligation occurs to make it work. That's a seam. That is something we would notice in the SARS-2 genome if anyone had tried to engineer SARS-2. We would notice unusual cloning sites in places they shouldn't be. And as far as I know, no one has found any such sites in the SARS-2 genome. This method could not have been used. As an aside, Golden Gate cloning is not pioneering. It was invented in 2008 and truly "perfected" in 2012, but it was "pioneered" in 1996. [11] [12] [13] It also is not truly "seamless" (it has certain requirements that make it noticeable in these genomes). It is "quasi seamless" because it still has to be put in between two known restriction sites that are preserved in the process, and it incorporates the overhang sequences of the other plasmids used in the process. This would not work for SARS-CoV-2, and it is not a viable explanation for SARS-2's genome, because the areas that people point to as "engineered" (AKA the furin cleavage site) do not have the restriction sites in the proper locations necessary for such a technique to be used. It also does not have any of the "recognition sequences" we would see if such a technique was used. See this quick check I just did on the earliest known sequence of SARS-2. It only has two of the known Golden Gate enzymes anywhere near where they need to be, and they are in the wrong places. [14] If you tried to use Golden Gate cloning on this, it would do two things that make this extremely difficult: A) chop up the genome into little bits, and B) not insert the intended gene fragment in the proper location. In fact, when a group of scientists used this technique to rebuild SARS-Cov-2 infectious clones from scratch, they had to use specific other plasmids which contained those sites. [15] And it did not create the virus genome, it created pieces of the genome across many different plasmids. That's what you'd have to do. And it's why this technique could not be used to engineer SARS-2 in any way. As an aside, I also don't even see any gain of function work there (unless you consider inserting GFP a GOF worth mentioning, which would be kind of missing the point). Basically, in order for your suppositions here to be correct, you have to believe WIV was inventing whole new methods of genomic engineering, hid it from everyone, and used it to make really dangerous viruses without any oversight, whistleblowers, leakers, etc. That is a conspiracy theory. You're literally alleging that a conspiracy was conducted to perform dangerous research in secret.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 17:37, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
can you explain the context of your comment? Where did I conflate "balanced consideration" with "equal weight"?I can. This is the chain of conversation I saw, with emphasis.
4) The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other.
Thirdly, several signatories of that letter have come out and said they do not believe equal weight should be given to the two possibilities, that they still believe the zoonotic theory is the most likely, but that they do think further investigation is warranted. I blame shoddy wording in that letter. But the authors do not believe what you've said they believe.
You made a few good points worth discussing but before that, but please first reread the New York Times article you cited and strike your comments saying several signatories of that letter have come out and said they do not believe equal weight should be given to the two possibilities and the authors do not believe what you've said they believe.. You should also reread the Science letter, as it clearly crititizes the WHO report in how the two theories were not given balanced consideration, concluding that We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data.
We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriouslyis not the same as
equal weight must be given to both hypotheses, nor is
until we have sufficient datathe same as
there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other. Bakkster Man ( talk) 16:35, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
equal weight, and
balanced consideration, in the context of the subject of this page. If this page was named simply Origins of COVID-19, then I’d understand why you want to draw the distinction between them, but this page is called Investigations into the origins of COVI-19, and we shouldn’t be describing things the way we are. My comments are in line with other editors in this conversation and others, and we should neither be calling accidental natural origins "zoonotic theory", nor should we be proclaiming a consensus where there isn’t one. Genetically modified crops also have natural origins, and we know better than to confuse them with Heirloom plants. We need to improve the level of dialogue here with proper scientific terms. CutePeach ( talk) 18:04, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
what most scientists think" it means (B) "
what is most commonly referenced and written in the consensus of the relevant scientific literature." What most scientists in a relevant discipline think can help us determine B, but it is not a replacement for B. WP:NOLABLEAK has a metric ton of WP:MEDRS that show most virologists, when publishing in peer reviewed journals, write that the zoonotic theory is most likely. It's also supported by several society statements (from WHO, etc) and other consensus-gathering sources. Secondary sources like this recent nature article are clear, the lab leak is a minority view. [16] And, also worth saying, that wp:SCICON is very clear about minority views. They should not be given equal weight, only proportional weight.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 18:11, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
Signatories saying they believe the "zoonotic theory" to be the most likely does not support Shibbolethink’s prior claim that they do not believe equal weight should be given to both origin theories in an investigation.This seems to be the root of the misunderstanding/miscommunication. I did not read Francesco espo's comment as referring to the investigations being given equal weight, he appeared to be suggesting the Science letter suggested the hypotheses themselves and their likelihood should be given equal weight (the "no evidence" comment notwithstanding). And those are two very different things, which Shibbolethink was trying to clarify: the Science letter's calls for a balanced, open, and thorough investigation are not the same as suggesting the lab origin hypothesis was equally likely. I'm certain the authors differ in their estimates of likelihood, hence why we shouldn't make assumptions.
Furthermore, the two theories were not given balanced consideration. Only 4 of the 313 pages of the report and its annexes addressed the possibility of a laboratory accident.This seems to best sum up the intended meaning of 'balanced consideration', a more equal number of pages spent on the topic in the report. Maybe you read the original comment of "The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other" differently than I did, but I agree with Shibbolethink that these two statements are different enough so as to be misleading. Bakkster Man ( talk) 18:53, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
That consensus is not dubious. - Darouet ( talk) 04:59, 26 May 2021 (UTC)This letter in the Lancet is more explicit, saying "Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1 and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 as have so many other emerging pathogens.11,12"
The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other.This is not what the letter says. There's a significant difference between
there were no findings in clear support of either a natural spillover or a lab accidentand "there's no evidence", and between
balanced considerationand "equal weight". Particularly the latter, weight in investigation (including access to raw data) is different from wikipedia WP:DUE weight. The Science letter is calling for what we all want, more conclusive data on the topic. But that letter alone doesn't really change the way we can write about the topic given WP:V. Bakkster Man ( talk) 13:08, 26 May 2021 (UTC)
Bakkster Man, sorry if my paraphrasing is wrong, but i have to disagree with your reading of the Science letter. The letter says two theories were not given balanced consideration
, which i have paraphrased to mean that both theories must be given equal weight in an investigation. The main point of the letter is to say that the WHO investigation is not credible if it cannot get an access to the data, and the WHO Mission chief said it was
not even an investigation, yet this page is titled investigations. How do you propose that we cover the WHO investigation-not-an-investigation in Wikipedia? Is Wikipedia’ definition of DUE different to the standard English definition?
Francesco espo (
talk) 22:14, 1 June 2021 (UTC)
There is no "scientific consensus" that the virus has zoonotic origin. This notion is patently false. The closest one could argue is that "preliminary conjecture has favored a zoonotic origin".
Most of what needs to be said in this discussion was all covered in CutePeach's first comment above. To add, beyond seamless techniques it's no secret whatsoever that Z Shi, Baric and their collaborators were well-versed in serial passaging. This is discussed in this article in Nature [16] in the methods section, the protocol being described here [17]. And yes these are primary sources, as is to be expected considering the circumstances. So indeed it's not at all difficult to imagine a scenario where human epithelial cell lines could have been used 'in vitro' to get a human-adapted SARS-like CoV to bind to ACE-2, be cleaved by human furin etc. This would have been in line with the other research being done by this group. It may be the less likely, but recognition of this possibility is certainly not "misinformation". KristinaLu ( talk) 10:49, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
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it says: "A final scenario is the introduction of the virus to humans through a laboratory incident. "A" final scenario? gain of function is one incident/scenario which needs its own clear discussion, and lab-leak is another incident/scenario which needs its own clear discussion, and both may have occurred, and that's not to mention considering military research or intentional release which should be discussed; saying "ruled out" should get a {by whom?} style critique. ... Deliberate bioengineering of the virus for release has been ruled out, with remaining investigations considering the possibility of a collected natural virus what happened to gain of function NOT for release? inadvertently infecting laboratory staff during the course of study." 2603:8001:9500:9E98:0:0:0:9A7 ( talk) 07:17, 9 June 2021 (UTC)
I am un-linking the WHO report from this section, since it is a primary source. It will remain in the citations. KristinaLu ( talk) 11:56, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
Our entry on the Chinese government here is mostly about false or misleading statements by Chinese officials. However, in China there have been multiple investigations into the virus, starting with the Chinese CDCs early investigation identifying the market as the source of the first major detected outbreak. More recently the Chinese government and Chinese scientists have been working with the WHO.
We should mention false statements etc. by Chinese officials, but our section on this topic should actually educate readers about what investigations the Chinese government has either launched or facilitated. Right now our article gives us little information on its ostensible topic. - Darouet ( talk) 21:52, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
As covered by NBC news, Biden said that we haven't had access to the Wuhan lab to conduct an investigation and we still don't know if COVID is a natural development or a lab leak. Shouldn't this be included in the article? [18] 73.120.83.182 ( talk) 14:51, 13 June 2021 (UTC)
I think our SA section needs a little work here. Right now it only has World Health Organization's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. There's definitely more than just that one article that is relevant enough for See also. The relevant guideline is MOS:SEEALSO.
I propose adding the following:
Thoughts? It's an accurate representation of the content of this article to include both, even if I personally think one is less likely than the other.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 21:00, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
I also think adding COVID-19 misinformation would be appropriate, although I understand that may be more contentious. I say this because even if you believe the Lab leak theory is not misinformation, you'd be hard pressed to say that NO misinformation related to the origin has been circulating (videos of people eating bats, conspiracy theories about bioweapons, etc.)-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 21:04, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
@ Ali mjr: Please note WP:BRD. The addition may violate BLP policies and certainly has NPOV issues. You don't seem to understand what WP:Consensus is either. User:力 (power~enwiki, π, ν) 00:57, 3 July 2021 (UTC)
I check pages listed in Category:Pages with incorrect ref formatting to try to fix reference errors. One of the things I do is look for content for orphaned references in wikilinked articles. I have found content for some of Investigations into the origin of COVID-19's orphans, the problem is that I found more than one version. I can't determine which (if any) is correct for this article, so I am asking for a sentient editor to look it over and copy the correct ref content into this article.
Reference named "who":
I apologize if any of the above are effectively identical; I am just a simple computer program, so I can't determine whether minor differences are significant or not. AnomieBOT ⚡ 10:15, 24 June 2021 (UTC)
@ Forich: I left a warning on your talk page. This edit was WP:POINTY, and that's not appropriate. I'd expect you're aware of this, given your comments on Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Enforcement#Normchou. Bakkster Man ( talk) 21:24, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
See Wikipedia:Miscellany_for_deletion#Draft:China_COVID-19_cover-up Adoring nanny ( talk) 22:27, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
Our entry is growing in size. I suggest we delete the two sections transcluded from the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 entry, integrating the few paragraphs related to the origin of the virus: 1. Reservoir and origin 2. Phylogenetics and taxonomy Terjen ( talk) 22:39, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
The scientists have spoken, the pandemic was not a lab accident, an accident made possible by scientists (gain of function is the scientific jargon for such research), because if that was the case how could then the ignorant populations rely on science to get over the pandemic? unsigned comment by 141.255.1.145
@ Shibbolethink just because it is mentioned earlier do you think it does not belong in the section about the lab leak theory? The "why?" section of your profile shows you hold strong personal beliefs against this theory. Can we trust you to be WP:NPOV in your editing? As a virologist defending other virologists of wrong-doing, you have a possible WP:COI. Wqwt ( talk) 21:34, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
A few papers I've come across. I want to help improve the article. Let me know if the below is usable. I'll post some notes.
Here's what I found:
2019 (notably, before first COVID-19 cases were reported): "Human-animal interactions and bat coronavirus spillover potential among rural residents in Southern China"
They surveyed many residents in rural China, and found that nine (0.6%) of them tested positive for bat coronaviruses (among other signs of apparent spillover such as SARS-like symptoms). They also examined how frequently residents were coming into contact with various animals, including bats. 8 out of 9 of those who tested positive for such viruses were working in crop production, i.e. farming. This background information may be helpful to understand what sort of environment that SARS-CoV-2 probably crossed over from, or at least other novel viruses related to it.
A 2020 paper cited the above. It included two of the same researchers.
2020: "A strategy to prevent future epidemics similar to the 2019-nCoV outbreak"
2021: Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
For that I'll just leave a choice quote:
Our results highlight the unpredictable dynamics that characterized the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The successful establishment of SARS-CoV-2 postzoonosis was far from certain, as more than two-thirds of simulated epidemics quickly went extinct. It is highly probable that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in Hubei province at low levels in November 2019 and possibly as early as October 2019, but not earlier. Nonetheless, the inferred prevalence of this virus was too low to permit its discovery and characterization for weeks or months. By the time that COVID-19 was first identified, the virus had firmly established itself in Wuhan. This delay highlights the difficulty in surveillance for novel zoonotic pathogens with high transmissibility and moderate mortality rates.
The high extinction rates we inferred suggest that spillover of SARS-CoV-2like viruses may be frequent, even if pandemics are rare. Furthermore, the same dynamics that characterized the establishment of SARS-CoV-2 in Hubei province may have played out all over the world, as the virus was repeatedly introduced but only occasionally took hold. The reports of cases in December 2019 and January 2020 in France and California that did not establish sustained transmission fit this pattern.
If none of the above is suitable to improve the page, I hope I've at least introduced editors to some interesting information concerning the origins, or maybe invited somebody to point me somewhere better for it... good day. -- Chillabit ( talk) 21:16, 11 June 2021 (UTC)
Pretty much the above subtitle. This WP article does exactly what WP articles shouldn't do. As it stands, this article deserves an Outdated template until it has been cleaned up. EyeTruth ( talk) 00:34, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
Guys don't bother fighting wikiactivists here. Giving them primary scientific sources are not enough for them to bother updating this article from the conflict-of-interest driven narrative. You aren't going to change anybody's of these activists opinions if they can't even be bothered to read Nature articles directly on this subject. 2601:602:9200:1310:60E1:7F9E:14BC:FB2B ( talk) 11:26, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
The current label is not correct, because the article is not about the origin of the disease (COVID-19), but about the origin of the virus SAR-CoV-2. It is also not about the etiology of COVID-19, but about the genesis of SARS-CoV-2. The article should sail under the correct flag. What are the opinions here ?-- Empiricus ( talk) 19:54, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
FWIW - seems recent news (06/06/2021) [1] may be worth considering - and may help improve the article by better supporting (or otherwise) some of the current content in the main article - iac - Stay Safe and Healthy !! - Drbogdan ( talk) 22:59, 6 June 2021 (UTC)
@ Bakkster Man: (and others) - Thank you for your comment - and suggestion - seems the article supports text in the main article concerning gain of function studies (ie, "intentionally supercharging viruses to increase lethality", in the words of the WSJ article) conducted by virologists at the Wuhan Virology Laboratories - apparently - a consequence of this genetic manipulation is a unique genetic sequence (ie, a "rare double CGG" segment that is not known to occur naturally) - according to the WSJ article, this genetic sequence appears in the February 2020 research papers published by virologists from the Wuhan Laboratory, detailing the genome of the coronavirus, but not clearly noted - afterwards - this genetic sequence was discovered in the published research of the Wuhan virologists by other virologists who have published their observations [2] - seems this news information supports the "lab-leak" notion - whether this information can be used in the main article may be another matter - after all - the WSJ is behind a paywall, and is not WP:MEDRS - hope this helps in some way - Stay Safe and Healthy !! - Drbogdan ( talk) 02:26, 7 June 2021 (UTC)
Thank you *very much* for all the comments, including the cited reference [3] (new to me, and very interesting of course) - they're *greatly* appreciated - no problem whatsoever - Thanks again - and - Stay Safe and Healthy !! - Drbogdan ( talk) 11:25, 7 June 2021 (UTC)
References
@ Bakkster Man: See my edit summary and also the related subsection at Talk:Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2#Nucleotide_skewness_of_SARS-CoV-2. As I've also said, I'm not convinced the "lab leak via GOFR" is included in the "accidental lab leak" (I've added a short description, based on the given source, here, for what appears to be the lab leak scenario that "hasn't been ruled out") - the language in other sources isn't quite precise enough (since it doesn't mention GoFR directly), but they seem to agree that deliberate manipulation has been ruled out, and GOFR appears to me to be clearly "deliberate manipulation". RandomCanadian ( talk / contribs) 17:49, 8 June 2021 (UTC)
The US government surprised many researchers on 17 October when it announced that it will temporarily stop funding new research that makes certain viruses more deadly or transmissible. The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is also asking researchers who conduct such ‘gain-of-function’ experiments on influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) to stop their work until a risk assessment is completed — leaving many unsure of how to proceed.But there seems to be a question around whether virus studies incidentally or intentionally result in a gain-of-function:
Some researchers are confused by the moratorium’s wording. Viruses are always mutating, and Casadevall says that it is difficult to determine how much mutation deliberately created by scientists might be “reasonably anticipated” to make a virus more dangerous — the point at which the White House states research must stop. The government says that this point will be determined for individual grants in discussions between funding officers and researchers.This makes it harder for us, because it means many sources avoid the term altogether (WHO-China report, most notably), and when they do it's hard to discern which use they meant: research with the intentional result being gain-of-function, or research where an inadvertent gain-of-function may occur. I usually prefer to avoid the term if possible, and might reword the content differently if that's the only remaining concern.
SARS-CoV-2 is introduced through a laboratory incident, reflecting an accidental infection of staff from laboratory activities involving the relevant viruses. We did not consider the hypothesis of deliberate release or deliberate bioengineering of SARS-CoV-2 for release, the latter has been ruled out by other scientists following analyses of the genome.Distinctly lacking much detail ("laboratory activities involving the relevant viruses" can be construed narrowly or broadly very differently), only explicitly ruling out intentional development of a bioweapon. Their Figure 5 on page 119 (Schema for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 through a laboratory incident) and includes the icon for "Evolution" in the laboratory, but not "Adaptation, transmissibility increase". My read is that the WHO didn't explicitly rule out recombination and evolution in the lab, though the diagram makes things a bit more confusing. Did they intend to communicate that they ruled out and/or didn't consider any adaptation in the lab environment as a possibility, or did they leave it out so as not to give an unintended impression that such gains were intended in WIV research? It would be helpful if we had another source confirming the WHO study's intentions, rather than just another researcher's impression. I'm hesitant to jump straight to firm conclusions without that.
The second hurdle may be even more daunting. The United States, in particular but not exclusively, is experiencing a resurgence in conspiracy theories and extremist behavior in the context of COVID-19. [...] Some may verge on the unbelievable, such as the conspiracy theory that gain-of-function research conducted on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronaviruses in 2015 is connected to the emergence of COVID-19 that made it to British tabloids (17),
In recent months, the argument was raised that SARS-CoV-2 may have accidentally escaped from a high-containment laboratory in Wuhan, China (10). At this time, the scientific consensus is that the virus emerged as a zoonosis whereby it jumped from an animal host, possibly bats or pangolins, to humans (11), and arguments about a laboratory origin for SARS-CoV-2 are more akin to a conspiracy theory than to a scientifically credible hypothesis. In the very unlikely event that SARS-Cov-2 had emerged by accidental escape from a lab, however, that would be a great cause for concern because the Wuhan facility was state of the art and presumably operating with a high degree of care.
Hi (@ Bakkster Man: @ RandomCanadian:) yes completely agree GoFR is mutually exclusive with "Accidental lab leak." And more specifically, that gain of function research must be intentional. Could phrase it as "Accidental leak after deliberate manipulation" but all of those theories (as espoused by Yuri Deign and Nicholas Wade et al) involve arguments about making the virus more human-tropic or transmissible. That's why it's become a moving goalposts game full of no-true-scotsman. One conspiracy theorist will say the manipulation was to create a bioweapon, another will say it was just scientists "playing god." But they both mean the same thing: deliberate genetic engineering.
And that, specifically, is what has been so thoroughly debunked by publications by Rasmussen, Andersen, and others as detailed in WP:NOLABLEAK. Suffice it to say, you cannot, as a virologist, "accidentally" cause gain of function in the course of an experiment. You control the variables, so how would that happen? Either you are introducing random mutagenesis (via radiation or chemicals or just passaging) to alter the viral genome, hoping to see a change in function (gain or loss), or you are deliberately mutating it in specific areas to cause same. Either way there is a deliberate act, and specifically a deliberate "selection" of which mutants will be allowed to survive from that mutagenesis. The selection and the mutagenesis both require deliberate intervention that alters the course of nature. If it were happening without any scientific intervention (or intention) whatsoever, then it is more apt to call it a natural mutation that would have occurred without any experimentation involved, and therefore it isn't GoF, because it's a natural change. Does that make sense? This is based on the National Research Council and NIH definition, which is what is important re: scientific funding: [1]
any selection process involving an alteration of genotypes and their resulting phenotypes is considered a type of Gain-of-Function (GoF) research, even if the U.S. policy is intended to apply to only a small subset of such work.
More specifically, if we are including any deliberate alteration of the virus, then we are absolutely beholden to the consensus among scientists that it is extremely extremely unlikely if not close to impossible. Because of the viral genome, its' synonymous/non-synonymous ratio, molecular clock findings, codon usage, poor quality protease site usage, etc. As detailed in the article above. If we are talking about accidental leak of a wild natural virus, then the argument becomes about probabilities: who is more likely to contract the virus, a group of scientists with PPE who visit a cave once a year, or the guano harvesters, farmers, etc. who interact with the zoonotic reservoir without any protection every day of their lives? And if it is the former, then how is the coverup possible, without any notable leak? And so on with the dual sequencing, etc etc. There are a lot of holes in this theory anyway, but they are all inductive reasoning. Especially given the fact that the virus is just as, if not more, likely to have emerged outside of Wuhan rather than within the city. Those arguments are what are convincing to virologists, but not convincing enough to make an investigation unnecessary. As I said, they are "inductive" rather than "deductive."
And to be clear, the only people who are saying "the virus was engineered" are the fringe sources who, per my reading of MEDRS and UNDUE and FRINGE, should not be included outside of the Misinformation article. Whereas "it is possible (though unlikely) the virus was a natural virus that leaked accidentally" is a more mainstream minority view, in my reading of the situation. I believe that is also what RSes are saying from what you've linked and what our articles currently say. I have yet to find a MEDRS of high quality that has any sort of notable virology consensus or plurality saying the virus was engineered. Just old nobel winners who've always been contrarians, and modern day contrarians who are not virologists.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 22:51, 8 June 2021 (UTC)
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The WSJ is a reliable source regarding scientific matters only insofar as you can rely on this: if the WSJ holds a position on a scientific question, that position being held by many people is good for the Dow-Jones in the short term. It does not matter to them at all if the position is supported by evidence or accepted by scientists. Climate change is a case in point. The WSJ should never be used as a source for scientific matters. -- Hob Gadling ( talk) 06:22, 22 June 2021 (UTC)
What source describes the situation among virologists as a "consensus"? Adoring nanny ( talk) 15:38, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
Here are 4 discussions on this very talk page about that:
Why not re-engage in any of those instead of making this new section? We want to avoid WP:BADGER, it becomes very time consuming.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 16:55, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
unlikely" and that the natural zoonosis theory is "
likely." We never say that one or the other is "true." The 'consensus' is the same, it's an agreement of probabilities. Not an agreement on what is "true" and what is "false." If you can find a place where we do say that, I would love to change it as well, because I agree that would be wrong.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 14:32, 21 June 2021 (UTC)
Both forms of the lab leak hypothesis share one element, namely constant finger pointing at the Chinese for being less than enthusiastic and cooperative about letting investigators into the Wuhan Institute of Virology to try to determine if a lab leak happened. This is, of course, not surprising and not in and of itself evidence for a lab leak. China is an authoritarian regime, and such regimes tend to be secretive.As for the fact it "started" in a city, that's dubious: see sources cited here under the "Wuhan was likely not the origin" bulletpoint). RandomCanadian ( talk / contribs) 00:55, 24 June 2021 (UTC)
Consensus generally implies agreement of the supermajority, though not necessarily unanimity.. This means that in a survey of 100 scientists, if 51 agree on A and 49 agree on B, the phrase "most scientist agree on A" is TRUE but the phrase "there is consensus on A" is FALSE. Forich ( talk) 19:40, 21 June 2021 (UTC)
This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | ← | Archive 3 | Archive 4 | Archive 5 | Archive 6 | Archive 7 | → | Archive 10 |
The following sentence and the mobillized sources are worth discussing: "The scientific consensus is that it is a zoonotic virus that arose from bats in a natural setting". This sentence is based on Andersen et al. using RaTG13, the closest known virus to SARS-CoV-2, but which has been exclusively studied by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. There is therefore no possibility for the rest of the scientific community to verify the information transmitted about it. Second, for Latinne et al. this is a paper that was primarily written by members of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the EcoHealth Alliance, which has funded research on bat coronaviruses in that lab. But most importantly, RaTG13, again unverifiable to the rest of the scientific community, is used. So there is a problem in the diversity of sources cited here, but more generally, in the verifiability of the scientific information itself. Hence the calls in the press and Science to be able to verify this information. CyberDiderot ( talk) 17:44, 24 May 2021 (UTC)
A statement that all or most scientists or scholars hold a certain view requires reliable sourcing that directly says that all or most scientists or scholars hold that view.... Stated simply, any statement in Wikipedia that academic consensus exists on a topic must be sourced rather than being based on the opinion or assessment of editors.Could you point to where the cited sources make any direct claims about zoonotic origin being the scientific consensus? I have not been able to find that claim supported anywhere in the sources. Stonkaments ( talk) 00:04, 25 May 2021 (UTC)
deliberate release or deliberate bioengineering of SARS-CoV-2 for release, the latter has been ruled out by other scientists following analyses of the genome, as per the WHO-China report. By extension, there appears to be consensus that the virus descends from a natural virus, with the exact pathway for the evolutionary gap and precise point of zoonosis being up for debate. Given this, I'd suggest it's only the "arose from bats in a natural setting" that's not yet fully settled (as growth in lab culture is not a "natural setting"). I suspect we can find a clear, concise way to explain this. For reference, here's the current language in the Investigations section:
There are multiple proposed explanations for how SARS-CoV-2 was introduced into, and evolved adaptations suited to, the human population. There is significant evidence and agreement that the most likely original viral reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 is horseshoe bats, with the closest known viral relative being RaTG13. The evolutionary distance between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 is estimated to be between 20 and 90 years, [1] which each origin hypothesis attempts to explain in a different way. These scenarios continue to be investigated in order to identify the definitive origin of the virus.Better synchronizing these two paragraphs should be done. Bakkster Man ( talk) 13:47, 25 May 2021 (UTC)
Physiologically, there can no longer be a consensus since the pillars of zoonotic theory have fallen:
1) After 15 months and 80,000 animals tested, no intermediate host was found, SARS1 requested 4 months, MERS 9; 2) Ralph Baric admitted that himself could manipulate a virus with seamless technologies, not allowing anyone to verify if it is artificial; 3) With the last 3 doctoral theses of WIV students coming to light that demonstrate the presence in their archives of various unpublished sars-related backbones and their pioneering works with seamless technologies the same signatories of the letter for Science have revealed that they're no longer able to support natural theory with greater conviction; 4) The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other.
Francesco espo ( talk) 00:51, 26 May 2021 (UTC)
several signatories of that letter have come out and said they do not believe equal weight should be given to the two possibilitiesand
the authors do not believe what you've said they believe.. You should also reread the Science letter [5], as it clearly crititizes the WHO report in how
the two theories were not given balanced consideration, concluding that
We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data. As the authors of the New York Times article say, the Science letter
did not come down in favor of one scenario or another, and several of the signatories
think it is more likely than not that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from an animal reservoir rather than a lab, which they correctly attribute as opinion, rather than fact. These scientists, regardless of their expert opinions, are making a stand for the scientific process, so I agree with CyberDiderot, that regardless of our WP:OPINIONs, we should adhere to WP:V and not proclaim a consensus where there isn’t one.
pioneering work with seamless technologies?" I don't see anything of the kind in that article. Just typical run of the mill virological techniques that everyone was using in 2016. I see basic restriction enzyme cloning, introduction of mutations to avoid early termination, etc. They literally had to insert mutations to make it work in a unidirectional coding, how can that be described as "seamless?" They had to mutate it to insert cloning sites at the point where ligation occurs to make it work. That's a seam. That is something we would notice in the SARS-2 genome if anyone had tried to engineer SARS-2. We would notice unusual cloning sites in places they shouldn't be. And as far as I know, no one has found any such sites in the SARS-2 genome. This method could not have been used. As an aside, Golden Gate cloning is not pioneering. It was invented in 2008 and truly "perfected" in 2012, but it was "pioneered" in 1996. [11] [12] [13] It also is not truly "seamless" (it has certain requirements that make it noticeable in these genomes). It is "quasi seamless" because it still has to be put in between two known restriction sites that are preserved in the process, and it incorporates the overhang sequences of the other plasmids used in the process. This would not work for SARS-CoV-2, and it is not a viable explanation for SARS-2's genome, because the areas that people point to as "engineered" (AKA the furin cleavage site) do not have the restriction sites in the proper locations necessary for such a technique to be used. It also does not have any of the "recognition sequences" we would see if such a technique was used. See this quick check I just did on the earliest known sequence of SARS-2. It only has two of the known Golden Gate enzymes anywhere near where they need to be, and they are in the wrong places. [14] If you tried to use Golden Gate cloning on this, it would do two things that make this extremely difficult: A) chop up the genome into little bits, and B) not insert the intended gene fragment in the proper location. In fact, when a group of scientists used this technique to rebuild SARS-Cov-2 infectious clones from scratch, they had to use specific other plasmids which contained those sites. [15] And it did not create the virus genome, it created pieces of the genome across many different plasmids. That's what you'd have to do. And it's why this technique could not be used to engineer SARS-2 in any way. As an aside, I also don't even see any gain of function work there (unless you consider inserting GFP a GOF worth mentioning, which would be kind of missing the point). Basically, in order for your suppositions here to be correct, you have to believe WIV was inventing whole new methods of genomic engineering, hid it from everyone, and used it to make really dangerous viruses without any oversight, whistleblowers, leakers, etc. That is a conspiracy theory. You're literally alleging that a conspiracy was conducted to perform dangerous research in secret.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 17:37, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
can you explain the context of your comment? Where did I conflate "balanced consideration" with "equal weight"?I can. This is the chain of conversation I saw, with emphasis.
4) The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other.
Thirdly, several signatories of that letter have come out and said they do not believe equal weight should be given to the two possibilities, that they still believe the zoonotic theory is the most likely, but that they do think further investigation is warranted. I blame shoddy wording in that letter. But the authors do not believe what you've said they believe.
You made a few good points worth discussing but before that, but please first reread the New York Times article you cited and strike your comments saying several signatories of that letter have come out and said they do not believe equal weight should be given to the two possibilities and the authors do not believe what you've said they believe.. You should also reread the Science letter, as it clearly crititizes the WHO report in how the two theories were not given balanced consideration, concluding that We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data.
We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriouslyis not the same as
equal weight must be given to both hypotheses, nor is
until we have sufficient datathe same as
there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other. Bakkster Man ( talk) 16:35, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
equal weight, and
balanced consideration, in the context of the subject of this page. If this page was named simply Origins of COVID-19, then I’d understand why you want to draw the distinction between them, but this page is called Investigations into the origins of COVI-19, and we shouldn’t be describing things the way we are. My comments are in line with other editors in this conversation and others, and we should neither be calling accidental natural origins "zoonotic theory", nor should we be proclaiming a consensus where there isn’t one. Genetically modified crops also have natural origins, and we know better than to confuse them with Heirloom plants. We need to improve the level of dialogue here with proper scientific terms. CutePeach ( talk) 18:04, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
what most scientists think" it means (B) "
what is most commonly referenced and written in the consensus of the relevant scientific literature." What most scientists in a relevant discipline think can help us determine B, but it is not a replacement for B. WP:NOLABLEAK has a metric ton of WP:MEDRS that show most virologists, when publishing in peer reviewed journals, write that the zoonotic theory is most likely. It's also supported by several society statements (from WHO, etc) and other consensus-gathering sources. Secondary sources like this recent nature article are clear, the lab leak is a minority view. [16] And, also worth saying, that wp:SCICON is very clear about minority views. They should not be given equal weight, only proportional weight.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 18:11, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
Signatories saying they believe the "zoonotic theory" to be the most likely does not support Shibbolethink’s prior claim that they do not believe equal weight should be given to both origin theories in an investigation.This seems to be the root of the misunderstanding/miscommunication. I did not read Francesco espo's comment as referring to the investigations being given equal weight, he appeared to be suggesting the Science letter suggested the hypotheses themselves and their likelihood should be given equal weight (the "no evidence" comment notwithstanding). And those are two very different things, which Shibbolethink was trying to clarify: the Science letter's calls for a balanced, open, and thorough investigation are not the same as suggesting the lab origin hypothesis was equally likely. I'm certain the authors differ in their estimates of likelihood, hence why we shouldn't make assumptions.
Furthermore, the two theories were not given balanced consideration. Only 4 of the 313 pages of the report and its annexes addressed the possibility of a laboratory accident.This seems to best sum up the intended meaning of 'balanced consideration', a more equal number of pages spent on the topic in the report. Maybe you read the original comment of "The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other" differently than I did, but I agree with Shibbolethink that these two statements are different enough so as to be misleading. Bakkster Man ( talk) 18:53, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
That consensus is not dubious. - Darouet ( talk) 04:59, 26 May 2021 (UTC)This letter in the Lancet is more explicit, saying "Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1 and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 as have so many other emerging pathogens.11,12"
The Science letter specifies that equal weight must be given to both hypotheses as long as there is no evidence to lean towards one or the other.This is not what the letter says. There's a significant difference between
there were no findings in clear support of either a natural spillover or a lab accidentand "there's no evidence", and between
balanced considerationand "equal weight". Particularly the latter, weight in investigation (including access to raw data) is different from wikipedia WP:DUE weight. The Science letter is calling for what we all want, more conclusive data on the topic. But that letter alone doesn't really change the way we can write about the topic given WP:V. Bakkster Man ( talk) 13:08, 26 May 2021 (UTC)
Bakkster Man, sorry if my paraphrasing is wrong, but i have to disagree with your reading of the Science letter. The letter says two theories were not given balanced consideration
, which i have paraphrased to mean that both theories must be given equal weight in an investigation. The main point of the letter is to say that the WHO investigation is not credible if it cannot get an access to the data, and the WHO Mission chief said it was
not even an investigation, yet this page is titled investigations. How do you propose that we cover the WHO investigation-not-an-investigation in Wikipedia? Is Wikipedia’ definition of DUE different to the standard English definition?
Francesco espo (
talk) 22:14, 1 June 2021 (UTC)
There is no "scientific consensus" that the virus has zoonotic origin. This notion is patently false. The closest one could argue is that "preliminary conjecture has favored a zoonotic origin".
Most of what needs to be said in this discussion was all covered in CutePeach's first comment above. To add, beyond seamless techniques it's no secret whatsoever that Z Shi, Baric and their collaborators were well-versed in serial passaging. This is discussed in this article in Nature [16] in the methods section, the protocol being described here [17]. And yes these are primary sources, as is to be expected considering the circumstances. So indeed it's not at all difficult to imagine a scenario where human epithelial cell lines could have been used 'in vitro' to get a human-adapted SARS-like CoV to bind to ACE-2, be cleaved by human furin etc. This would have been in line with the other research being done by this group. It may be the less likely, but recognition of this possibility is certainly not "misinformation". KristinaLu ( talk) 10:49, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
References
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it says: "A final scenario is the introduction of the virus to humans through a laboratory incident. "A" final scenario? gain of function is one incident/scenario which needs its own clear discussion, and lab-leak is another incident/scenario which needs its own clear discussion, and both may have occurred, and that's not to mention considering military research or intentional release which should be discussed; saying "ruled out" should get a {by whom?} style critique. ... Deliberate bioengineering of the virus for release has been ruled out, with remaining investigations considering the possibility of a collected natural virus what happened to gain of function NOT for release? inadvertently infecting laboratory staff during the course of study." 2603:8001:9500:9E98:0:0:0:9A7 ( talk) 07:17, 9 June 2021 (UTC)
I am un-linking the WHO report from this section, since it is a primary source. It will remain in the citations. KristinaLu ( talk) 11:56, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
Our entry on the Chinese government here is mostly about false or misleading statements by Chinese officials. However, in China there have been multiple investigations into the virus, starting with the Chinese CDCs early investigation identifying the market as the source of the first major detected outbreak. More recently the Chinese government and Chinese scientists have been working with the WHO.
We should mention false statements etc. by Chinese officials, but our section on this topic should actually educate readers about what investigations the Chinese government has either launched or facilitated. Right now our article gives us little information on its ostensible topic. - Darouet ( talk) 21:52, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
As covered by NBC news, Biden said that we haven't had access to the Wuhan lab to conduct an investigation and we still don't know if COVID is a natural development or a lab leak. Shouldn't this be included in the article? [18] 73.120.83.182 ( talk) 14:51, 13 June 2021 (UTC)
I think our SA section needs a little work here. Right now it only has World Health Organization's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. There's definitely more than just that one article that is relevant enough for See also. The relevant guideline is MOS:SEEALSO.
I propose adding the following:
Thoughts? It's an accurate representation of the content of this article to include both, even if I personally think one is less likely than the other.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 21:00, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
I also think adding COVID-19 misinformation would be appropriate, although I understand that may be more contentious. I say this because even if you believe the Lab leak theory is not misinformation, you'd be hard pressed to say that NO misinformation related to the origin has been circulating (videos of people eating bats, conspiracy theories about bioweapons, etc.)-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 21:04, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
@ Ali mjr: Please note WP:BRD. The addition may violate BLP policies and certainly has NPOV issues. You don't seem to understand what WP:Consensus is either. User:力 (power~enwiki, π, ν) 00:57, 3 July 2021 (UTC)
I check pages listed in Category:Pages with incorrect ref formatting to try to fix reference errors. One of the things I do is look for content for orphaned references in wikilinked articles. I have found content for some of Investigations into the origin of COVID-19's orphans, the problem is that I found more than one version. I can't determine which (if any) is correct for this article, so I am asking for a sentient editor to look it over and copy the correct ref content into this article.
Reference named "who":
I apologize if any of the above are effectively identical; I am just a simple computer program, so I can't determine whether minor differences are significant or not. AnomieBOT ⚡ 10:15, 24 June 2021 (UTC)
@ Forich: I left a warning on your talk page. This edit was WP:POINTY, and that's not appropriate. I'd expect you're aware of this, given your comments on Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Enforcement#Normchou. Bakkster Man ( talk) 21:24, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
See Wikipedia:Miscellany_for_deletion#Draft:China_COVID-19_cover-up Adoring nanny ( talk) 22:27, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
Our entry is growing in size. I suggest we delete the two sections transcluded from the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 entry, integrating the few paragraphs related to the origin of the virus: 1. Reservoir and origin 2. Phylogenetics and taxonomy Terjen ( talk) 22:39, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
The scientists have spoken, the pandemic was not a lab accident, an accident made possible by scientists (gain of function is the scientific jargon for such research), because if that was the case how could then the ignorant populations rely on science to get over the pandemic? unsigned comment by 141.255.1.145
@ Shibbolethink just because it is mentioned earlier do you think it does not belong in the section about the lab leak theory? The "why?" section of your profile shows you hold strong personal beliefs against this theory. Can we trust you to be WP:NPOV in your editing? As a virologist defending other virologists of wrong-doing, you have a possible WP:COI. Wqwt ( talk) 21:34, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
A few papers I've come across. I want to help improve the article. Let me know if the below is usable. I'll post some notes.
Here's what I found:
2019 (notably, before first COVID-19 cases were reported): "Human-animal interactions and bat coronavirus spillover potential among rural residents in Southern China"
They surveyed many residents in rural China, and found that nine (0.6%) of them tested positive for bat coronaviruses (among other signs of apparent spillover such as SARS-like symptoms). They also examined how frequently residents were coming into contact with various animals, including bats. 8 out of 9 of those who tested positive for such viruses were working in crop production, i.e. farming. This background information may be helpful to understand what sort of environment that SARS-CoV-2 probably crossed over from, or at least other novel viruses related to it.
A 2020 paper cited the above. It included two of the same researchers.
2020: "A strategy to prevent future epidemics similar to the 2019-nCoV outbreak"
2021: Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
For that I'll just leave a choice quote:
Our results highlight the unpredictable dynamics that characterized the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The successful establishment of SARS-CoV-2 postzoonosis was far from certain, as more than two-thirds of simulated epidemics quickly went extinct. It is highly probable that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in Hubei province at low levels in November 2019 and possibly as early as October 2019, but not earlier. Nonetheless, the inferred prevalence of this virus was too low to permit its discovery and characterization for weeks or months. By the time that COVID-19 was first identified, the virus had firmly established itself in Wuhan. This delay highlights the difficulty in surveillance for novel zoonotic pathogens with high transmissibility and moderate mortality rates.
The high extinction rates we inferred suggest that spillover of SARS-CoV-2like viruses may be frequent, even if pandemics are rare. Furthermore, the same dynamics that characterized the establishment of SARS-CoV-2 in Hubei province may have played out all over the world, as the virus was repeatedly introduced but only occasionally took hold. The reports of cases in December 2019 and January 2020 in France and California that did not establish sustained transmission fit this pattern.
If none of the above is suitable to improve the page, I hope I've at least introduced editors to some interesting information concerning the origins, or maybe invited somebody to point me somewhere better for it... good day. -- Chillabit ( talk) 21:16, 11 June 2021 (UTC)
Pretty much the above subtitle. This WP article does exactly what WP articles shouldn't do. As it stands, this article deserves an Outdated template until it has been cleaned up. EyeTruth ( talk) 00:34, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
Guys don't bother fighting wikiactivists here. Giving them primary scientific sources are not enough for them to bother updating this article from the conflict-of-interest driven narrative. You aren't going to change anybody's of these activists opinions if they can't even be bothered to read Nature articles directly on this subject. 2601:602:9200:1310:60E1:7F9E:14BC:FB2B ( talk) 11:26, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
The current label is not correct, because the article is not about the origin of the disease (COVID-19), but about the origin of the virus SAR-CoV-2. It is also not about the etiology of COVID-19, but about the genesis of SARS-CoV-2. The article should sail under the correct flag. What are the opinions here ?-- Empiricus ( talk) 19:54, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
FWIW - seems recent news (06/06/2021) [1] may be worth considering - and may help improve the article by better supporting (or otherwise) some of the current content in the main article - iac - Stay Safe and Healthy !! - Drbogdan ( talk) 22:59, 6 June 2021 (UTC)
@ Bakkster Man: (and others) - Thank you for your comment - and suggestion - seems the article supports text in the main article concerning gain of function studies (ie, "intentionally supercharging viruses to increase lethality", in the words of the WSJ article) conducted by virologists at the Wuhan Virology Laboratories - apparently - a consequence of this genetic manipulation is a unique genetic sequence (ie, a "rare double CGG" segment that is not known to occur naturally) - according to the WSJ article, this genetic sequence appears in the February 2020 research papers published by virologists from the Wuhan Laboratory, detailing the genome of the coronavirus, but not clearly noted - afterwards - this genetic sequence was discovered in the published research of the Wuhan virologists by other virologists who have published their observations [2] - seems this news information supports the "lab-leak" notion - whether this information can be used in the main article may be another matter - after all - the WSJ is behind a paywall, and is not WP:MEDRS - hope this helps in some way - Stay Safe and Healthy !! - Drbogdan ( talk) 02:26, 7 June 2021 (UTC)
Thank you *very much* for all the comments, including the cited reference [3] (new to me, and very interesting of course) - they're *greatly* appreciated - no problem whatsoever - Thanks again - and - Stay Safe and Healthy !! - Drbogdan ( talk) 11:25, 7 June 2021 (UTC)
References
@ Bakkster Man: See my edit summary and also the related subsection at Talk:Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2#Nucleotide_skewness_of_SARS-CoV-2. As I've also said, I'm not convinced the "lab leak via GOFR" is included in the "accidental lab leak" (I've added a short description, based on the given source, here, for what appears to be the lab leak scenario that "hasn't been ruled out") - the language in other sources isn't quite precise enough (since it doesn't mention GoFR directly), but they seem to agree that deliberate manipulation has been ruled out, and GOFR appears to me to be clearly "deliberate manipulation". RandomCanadian ( talk / contribs) 17:49, 8 June 2021 (UTC)
The US government surprised many researchers on 17 October when it announced that it will temporarily stop funding new research that makes certain viruses more deadly or transmissible. The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is also asking researchers who conduct such ‘gain-of-function’ experiments on influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) to stop their work until a risk assessment is completed — leaving many unsure of how to proceed.But there seems to be a question around whether virus studies incidentally or intentionally result in a gain-of-function:
Some researchers are confused by the moratorium’s wording. Viruses are always mutating, and Casadevall says that it is difficult to determine how much mutation deliberately created by scientists might be “reasonably anticipated” to make a virus more dangerous — the point at which the White House states research must stop. The government says that this point will be determined for individual grants in discussions between funding officers and researchers.This makes it harder for us, because it means many sources avoid the term altogether (WHO-China report, most notably), and when they do it's hard to discern which use they meant: research with the intentional result being gain-of-function, or research where an inadvertent gain-of-function may occur. I usually prefer to avoid the term if possible, and might reword the content differently if that's the only remaining concern.
SARS-CoV-2 is introduced through a laboratory incident, reflecting an accidental infection of staff from laboratory activities involving the relevant viruses. We did not consider the hypothesis of deliberate release or deliberate bioengineering of SARS-CoV-2 for release, the latter has been ruled out by other scientists following analyses of the genome.Distinctly lacking much detail ("laboratory activities involving the relevant viruses" can be construed narrowly or broadly very differently), only explicitly ruling out intentional development of a bioweapon. Their Figure 5 on page 119 (Schema for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 through a laboratory incident) and includes the icon for "Evolution" in the laboratory, but not "Adaptation, transmissibility increase". My read is that the WHO didn't explicitly rule out recombination and evolution in the lab, though the diagram makes things a bit more confusing. Did they intend to communicate that they ruled out and/or didn't consider any adaptation in the lab environment as a possibility, or did they leave it out so as not to give an unintended impression that such gains were intended in WIV research? It would be helpful if we had another source confirming the WHO study's intentions, rather than just another researcher's impression. I'm hesitant to jump straight to firm conclusions without that.
The second hurdle may be even more daunting. The United States, in particular but not exclusively, is experiencing a resurgence in conspiracy theories and extremist behavior in the context of COVID-19. [...] Some may verge on the unbelievable, such as the conspiracy theory that gain-of-function research conducted on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronaviruses in 2015 is connected to the emergence of COVID-19 that made it to British tabloids (17),
In recent months, the argument was raised that SARS-CoV-2 may have accidentally escaped from a high-containment laboratory in Wuhan, China (10). At this time, the scientific consensus is that the virus emerged as a zoonosis whereby it jumped from an animal host, possibly bats or pangolins, to humans (11), and arguments about a laboratory origin for SARS-CoV-2 are more akin to a conspiracy theory than to a scientifically credible hypothesis. In the very unlikely event that SARS-Cov-2 had emerged by accidental escape from a lab, however, that would be a great cause for concern because the Wuhan facility was state of the art and presumably operating with a high degree of care.
Hi (@ Bakkster Man: @ RandomCanadian:) yes completely agree GoFR is mutually exclusive with "Accidental lab leak." And more specifically, that gain of function research must be intentional. Could phrase it as "Accidental leak after deliberate manipulation" but all of those theories (as espoused by Yuri Deign and Nicholas Wade et al) involve arguments about making the virus more human-tropic or transmissible. That's why it's become a moving goalposts game full of no-true-scotsman. One conspiracy theorist will say the manipulation was to create a bioweapon, another will say it was just scientists "playing god." But they both mean the same thing: deliberate genetic engineering.
And that, specifically, is what has been so thoroughly debunked by publications by Rasmussen, Andersen, and others as detailed in WP:NOLABLEAK. Suffice it to say, you cannot, as a virologist, "accidentally" cause gain of function in the course of an experiment. You control the variables, so how would that happen? Either you are introducing random mutagenesis (via radiation or chemicals or just passaging) to alter the viral genome, hoping to see a change in function (gain or loss), or you are deliberately mutating it in specific areas to cause same. Either way there is a deliberate act, and specifically a deliberate "selection" of which mutants will be allowed to survive from that mutagenesis. The selection and the mutagenesis both require deliberate intervention that alters the course of nature. If it were happening without any scientific intervention (or intention) whatsoever, then it is more apt to call it a natural mutation that would have occurred without any experimentation involved, and therefore it isn't GoF, because it's a natural change. Does that make sense? This is based on the National Research Council and NIH definition, which is what is important re: scientific funding: [1]
any selection process involving an alteration of genotypes and their resulting phenotypes is considered a type of Gain-of-Function (GoF) research, even if the U.S. policy is intended to apply to only a small subset of such work.
More specifically, if we are including any deliberate alteration of the virus, then we are absolutely beholden to the consensus among scientists that it is extremely extremely unlikely if not close to impossible. Because of the viral genome, its' synonymous/non-synonymous ratio, molecular clock findings, codon usage, poor quality protease site usage, etc. As detailed in the article above. If we are talking about accidental leak of a wild natural virus, then the argument becomes about probabilities: who is more likely to contract the virus, a group of scientists with PPE who visit a cave once a year, or the guano harvesters, farmers, etc. who interact with the zoonotic reservoir without any protection every day of their lives? And if it is the former, then how is the coverup possible, without any notable leak? And so on with the dual sequencing, etc etc. There are a lot of holes in this theory anyway, but they are all inductive reasoning. Especially given the fact that the virus is just as, if not more, likely to have emerged outside of Wuhan rather than within the city. Those arguments are what are convincing to virologists, but not convincing enough to make an investigation unnecessary. As I said, they are "inductive" rather than "deductive."
And to be clear, the only people who are saying "the virus was engineered" are the fringe sources who, per my reading of MEDRS and UNDUE and FRINGE, should not be included outside of the Misinformation article. Whereas "it is possible (though unlikely) the virus was a natural virus that leaked accidentally" is a more mainstream minority view, in my reading of the situation. I believe that is also what RSes are saying from what you've linked and what our articles currently say. I have yet to find a MEDRS of high quality that has any sort of notable virology consensus or plurality saying the virus was engineered. Just old nobel winners who've always been contrarians, and modern day contrarians who are not virologists.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 22:51, 8 June 2021 (UTC)
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The WSJ is a reliable source regarding scientific matters only insofar as you can rely on this: if the WSJ holds a position on a scientific question, that position being held by many people is good for the Dow-Jones in the short term. It does not matter to them at all if the position is supported by evidence or accepted by scientists. Climate change is a case in point. The WSJ should never be used as a source for scientific matters. -- Hob Gadling ( talk) 06:22, 22 June 2021 (UTC)
What source describes the situation among virologists as a "consensus"? Adoring nanny ( talk) 15:38, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
Here are 4 discussions on this very talk page about that:
Why not re-engage in any of those instead of making this new section? We want to avoid WP:BADGER, it becomes very time consuming.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 16:55, 19 June 2021 (UTC)
unlikely" and that the natural zoonosis theory is "
likely." We never say that one or the other is "true." The 'consensus' is the same, it's an agreement of probabilities. Not an agreement on what is "true" and what is "false." If you can find a place where we do say that, I would love to change it as well, because I agree that would be wrong.-- Shibbolethink ( ♔ ♕) 14:32, 21 June 2021 (UTC)
Both forms of the lab leak hypothesis share one element, namely constant finger pointing at the Chinese for being less than enthusiastic and cooperative about letting investigators into the Wuhan Institute of Virology to try to determine if a lab leak happened. This is, of course, not surprising and not in and of itself evidence for a lab leak. China is an authoritarian regime, and such regimes tend to be secretive.As for the fact it "started" in a city, that's dubious: see sources cited here under the "Wuhan was likely not the origin" bulletpoint). RandomCanadian ( talk / contribs) 00:55, 24 June 2021 (UTC)
Consensus generally implies agreement of the supermajority, though not necessarily unanimity.. This means that in a survey of 100 scientists, if 51 agree on A and 49 agree on B, the phrase "most scientist agree on A" is TRUE but the phrase "there is consensus on A" is FALSE. Forich ( talk) 19:40, 21 June 2021 (UTC)