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Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 32.2% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. [2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House. [3]
The election was the first held after voters in 2020 approved Alaska Measure 2, which replaced traditional plurality voting with instant-runoff voting (IRV). Under the new system, the winners of a blanket top-four primary advanced to an instant-runoff election. However, only three candidates competed in the instant runoff election, as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola after finishing third in the primary. The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted, and Peltola was declared the winner that day. [4] [5] [6] The blanket primary's turnout of 32.2% was higher than in the last three primary elections. [7]
The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset because Alaska voters have long favored Republicans. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich won a US Senate seat in 2008. [8] Peltola was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [9]
The results of the new voting system were praised by many pundits and activists. FairVote, a pro- RCV lobbying group, argued the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system. [7] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing more moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation. [10]
By contrast, the election generated criticism from social choice and election scientists over several pathologies. [11] [12] The election produced a majoritarian failure, [13] with Peltola winning despite 52% of voters indicating no support for her on their ballots. [14] [15] Furthermore, the majority-preferred candidate (the candidate who would beat all others in a head-to-head matchup) was eliminated in the first round. The election was spoiled by Palin; if she had not been a candidate, Begich would have defeated Peltola by a margin of over 8000 votes. [14] [15] [16] Begich's elimination was an example of center squeeze, a scenario in which the candidate closest to the center of public opinion is eliminated after failing to receive a plurality of first choice votes. [17] [18] [19]
The election was also notable as a negative vote weight event, where increasing support for a candidate causes them to lose. If Peltola had received an additional 5,000 votes from Palin supporters, Peltola would have lost. [20] [21] [22] Had fewer Palin-then-Begich supporters voted, Palin would have lost in the first round, enabling Begich to win in the second. [23] [24] Similarly, a fall in turnout among right-wing voters who ranked Palin first and Begich second (but did not indicate any support for Peltola) would have resulted in Peltola losing the race to Begich. [20] [21] [22]
Election scientists were careful to note that although Alaska's RCV system had not delivered a substantial improvement on plurality in this election, these flaws would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system regardless. In the previous system, winners of each party primary run against each other in the general election, and Begich would have been eliminated in the primary. Several suggested alternative systems that could replace either of these systems. [25]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
1 [60] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council |
N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
John Coghill (R) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Andrew Halcro (I) |
Jeff Lowenfels (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Adam Wool (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
Republican | Nick Begich | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
Independent | Al Gross [b] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 |
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision. [45]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [62] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
Inside Elections [63] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [64] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
3* [d] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
3 | 55% | 45% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Lora Reinbold (R) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 51.5% | ||
Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 48.5% | ||
Republican | Nick Begich | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
First round results by state house district
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Final round results by state house district
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{{
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Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred by a majority of voters to each of the more extreme candidates. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
AK-Elections2
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Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 32.2% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. [2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House. [3]
The election was the first held after voters in 2020 approved Alaska Measure 2, which replaced traditional plurality voting with instant-runoff voting (IRV). Under the new system, the winners of a blanket top-four primary advanced to an instant-runoff election. However, only three candidates competed in the instant runoff election, as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola after finishing third in the primary. The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted, and Peltola was declared the winner that day. [4] [5] [6] The blanket primary's turnout of 32.2% was higher than in the last three primary elections. [7]
The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset because Alaska voters have long favored Republicans. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich won a US Senate seat in 2008. [8] Peltola was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [9]
The results of the new voting system were praised by many pundits and activists. FairVote, a pro- RCV lobbying group, argued the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system. [7] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing more moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation. [10]
By contrast, the election generated criticism from social choice and election scientists over several pathologies. [11] [12] The election produced a majoritarian failure, [13] with Peltola winning despite 52% of voters indicating no support for her on their ballots. [14] [15] Furthermore, the majority-preferred candidate (the candidate who would beat all others in a head-to-head matchup) was eliminated in the first round. The election was spoiled by Palin; if she had not been a candidate, Begich would have defeated Peltola by a margin of over 8000 votes. [14] [15] [16] Begich's elimination was an example of center squeeze, a scenario in which the candidate closest to the center of public opinion is eliminated after failing to receive a plurality of first choice votes. [17] [18] [19]
The election was also notable as a negative vote weight event, where increasing support for a candidate causes them to lose. If Peltola had received an additional 5,000 votes from Palin supporters, Peltola would have lost. [20] [21] [22] Had fewer Palin-then-Begich supporters voted, Palin would have lost in the first round, enabling Begich to win in the second. [23] [24] Similarly, a fall in turnout among right-wing voters who ranked Palin first and Begich second (but did not indicate any support for Peltola) would have resulted in Peltola losing the race to Begich. [20] [21] [22]
Election scientists were careful to note that although Alaska's RCV system had not delivered a substantial improvement on plurality in this election, these flaws would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system regardless. In the previous system, winners of each party primary run against each other in the general election, and Begich would have been eliminated in the primary. Several suggested alternative systems that could replace either of these systems. [25]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
1 [60] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council |
N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
John Coghill (R) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Andrew Halcro (I) |
Jeff Lowenfels (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Adam Wool (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
Republican | Nick Begich | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
Independent | Al Gross [b] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 |
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision. [45]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [62] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
Inside Elections [63] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [64] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
3* [d] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
3 | 55% | 45% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Lora Reinbold (R) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 51.5% | ||
Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 48.5% | ||
Republican | Nick Begich | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
First round results by state house district
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Final round results by state house district
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Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred by a majority of voters to each of the more extreme candidates. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
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