| |||||||||||||||||||||
Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnout | 32.2% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Alaska |
---|
The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. [2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House. [3]
The election was the first held after the passage of 2020 Alaska Measure 2, establishing a new procedure for elections. Under the new system, the top 4 candidates in a nonpartisan blanket primary advance to the general election. The general election is conducted using instant-runoff voting, a variant on traditional primaries where last-place candidates are repeatedly eliminated until only one candidate is left. Al Gross's withdrawal left only three names on the ballot in the general election.
The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted. [4] [5] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31. [6] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008. [7] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [8]
The election generated controversy as a result of several election pathologies. The instant-runoff election produced a winner opposed by a majority of voters, [9] with both polls and analyses of the cast ballots finding that most voters preferred Nick Begich over both opponents. [10] Republican Sarah Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking out Begich in the first round, despite being the weakest candidate in the race. [9] [10] [11]
The election was also notable for being a participation failure, a situation where a candidate is disqualified as a result of receiving too many votes. [11] In this race, Peltola won as a result of 3% of Alaska ballots that ranked her last (after Palin and Begich). [10]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
1 [44] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council |
N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
John Coghill (R) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Andrew Halcro (I) |
Jeff Lowenfels (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Adam Wool (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
Republican | Nick Begich | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
Independent | Al Gross [b] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 |
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision. [29]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [46] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
Inside Elections [47] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
3* [d] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
3 | 55% | 45% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Lora Reinbold (R) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 48.4% | ||
Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 45.6% | ||
Republican | Nick Begich | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
First round results by state house district
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Final round results by state house district
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|
Begich | Peltola | Palin | |
---|---|---|---|
Begich | - | 88,126 | 101,438 |
Peltola | 79,486 | - | 91,375 |
Palin | 63,666 | 86,197 | - |
The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner and Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler candidate: [58] [59] [60] [61]
{{
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Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
and yet with Palin included, Instant Runoff elected the Democrat in the race, making Palin a spoiler
Hence Begich was the Condorcet winner. … spoiler and Condorcet loser, Palin
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnout | 32.2% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Alaska |
---|
The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. [2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House. [3]
The election was the first held after the passage of 2020 Alaska Measure 2, establishing a new procedure for elections. Under the new system, the top 4 candidates in a nonpartisan blanket primary advance to the general election. The general election is conducted using instant-runoff voting, a variant on traditional primaries where last-place candidates are repeatedly eliminated until only one candidate is left. Al Gross's withdrawal left only three names on the ballot in the general election.
The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted. [4] [5] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31. [6] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008. [7] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [8]
The election generated controversy as a result of several election pathologies. The instant-runoff election produced a winner opposed by a majority of voters, [9] with both polls and analyses of the cast ballots finding that most voters preferred Nick Begich over both opponents. [10] Republican Sarah Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking out Begich in the first round, despite being the weakest candidate in the race. [9] [10] [11]
The election was also notable for being a participation failure, a situation where a candidate is disqualified as a result of receiving too many votes. [11] In this race, Peltola won as a result of 3% of Alaska ballots that ranked her last (after Palin and Begich). [10]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
1 [44] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council |
N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
John Coghill (R) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Andrew Halcro (I) |
Jeff Lowenfels (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Adam Wool (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
Republican | Nick Begich | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
Independent | Al Gross [b] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 |
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision. [29]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [46] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
Inside Elections [47] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
2* [c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
3* [d] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
3 | 55% | 45% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Lora Reinbold (R) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 48.4% | ||
Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 45.6% | ||
Republican | Nick Begich | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
First round results by state house district
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Final round results by state house district
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Begich | Peltola | Palin | |
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Begich | - | 88,126 | 101,438 |
Peltola | 79,486 | - | 91,375 |
Palin | 63,666 | 86,197 | - |
The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner and Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler candidate: [58] [59] [60] [61]
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Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
and yet with Palin included, Instant Runoff elected the Democrat in the race, making Palin a spoiler
Hence Begich was the Condorcet winner. … spoiler and Condorcet loser, Palin