This billion pool is for predicting the date at which the number of articles (as defined by the official article count presented on the
Special:Statistics) in the
EnglishWikipedia reaches 1,000,000,000 (one billion). The person who comes closest to the actual date is the winner (of eternal fame). The current number of articles in the English Wikipedia is 6,843,641.
This pool will be closed for entries when the English Wikipedia article count reaches 800,000,000 (80%), so be sure to place your guess before then.
15 January 2029 - mass Wikipedia and Wikidata integration lead to automatic creation and translation of articles. Wikipedia and Wikidata become less distinguishable and accept edits in a shared interface. Projects including university and medical school collaborations, cultural partnerships with museums,
OpenStreetMap, and
Internet Archive contribute greatly to Wikipedia, generating articles on places, publications, people, the collections of museums, and various topics in scientific fields including molecular biology and astronomy.
Blue Rasberry (talk)19:43, 2 April 2020 (UTC)reply
it would either be original research or not notable and so would be deleted
July 22, 2040 Wikipedia will be a website that exists beyond
Earth. I predict that we'll see rules declaring fame equality. With this, anyone will have a mainspace biography.
Imdill3 (
talk)
07:59, 16 August 2018 (UTC)reply
December 4, 2046 - Because robots will take over wikipedia and make an article about everything, including every stone, tree and atom in the universe. IWI (chat)
20:52, 9 July 2018 (UTC)reply
March 10,2032. Bots will become so common that people are swamped in approving all of them and eventually they start making useless edits.
3OpenEyes (
talk)
20:17, 31 March 2024 (UTC)reply
January 1, 5200. What a concept. I don't expect to get notified of the result! But since it took almost 15 years to get 5 million (0.5% of the way), I'd naively extrapolate 3000 years to get a billion. But the topics may peter out, so I'm going to give it 200 extra years.
Double sharp (
talk)
16:21, 1 November 2015 (UTC)reply
Well, at the rate Wikipedia is expanding, I'd say between 2027 and 2031.
Reason: Wikipedians will invent Twinkle++, the ultimate tool, as well as thousands of bots that generate articles en masse. If one bot generates a thousand articles each day, and there are over a thousand bots, there would be over a million articles generated per day, resulting in around 3 years of work only. With human editors, that would go down to about 2 years and 11 months (give or take), if we don't care about existing articles and vandalism. Even if we do, it'll still be 3 years at least.
The "oldid" field of the
first edit is 908,493,298 (nine hundred and eight million, four hundred and ninty-three thousand, and two hundred ninty-eight). Consequently, Wikipedia can be expected to break once an edit is made past the 908,493,297th edit. So, Wikipedia will never reach the billionth edit. --
TypicalWikimedian (
talk •
contribs)
17:57, 28 June 2021 (UTC)reply
This Name Isn't Available So I did the math, and if there's 6 million articles (as of typing this) and wikipedia is over 8500 days old, that equates to around 800 articles made a day. If this constant rate is kept up, then we should reach the 1-billionth edit in the year 5446. And I'm fairly certain that nobody reading this article (yes, including you) will ever live to see that year. So while it might not be possible in our lifetime, it probably will be in future generations.
This billion pool is for predicting the date at which the number of articles (as defined by the official article count presented on the
Special:Statistics) in the
EnglishWikipedia reaches 1,000,000,000 (one billion). The person who comes closest to the actual date is the winner (of eternal fame). The current number of articles in the English Wikipedia is 6,843,641.
This pool will be closed for entries when the English Wikipedia article count reaches 800,000,000 (80%), so be sure to place your guess before then.
15 January 2029 - mass Wikipedia and Wikidata integration lead to automatic creation and translation of articles. Wikipedia and Wikidata become less distinguishable and accept edits in a shared interface. Projects including university and medical school collaborations, cultural partnerships with museums,
OpenStreetMap, and
Internet Archive contribute greatly to Wikipedia, generating articles on places, publications, people, the collections of museums, and various topics in scientific fields including molecular biology and astronomy.
Blue Rasberry (talk)19:43, 2 April 2020 (UTC)reply
it would either be original research or not notable and so would be deleted
July 22, 2040 Wikipedia will be a website that exists beyond
Earth. I predict that we'll see rules declaring fame equality. With this, anyone will have a mainspace biography.
Imdill3 (
talk)
07:59, 16 August 2018 (UTC)reply
December 4, 2046 - Because robots will take over wikipedia and make an article about everything, including every stone, tree and atom in the universe. IWI (chat)
20:52, 9 July 2018 (UTC)reply
March 10,2032. Bots will become so common that people are swamped in approving all of them and eventually they start making useless edits.
3OpenEyes (
talk)
20:17, 31 March 2024 (UTC)reply
January 1, 5200. What a concept. I don't expect to get notified of the result! But since it took almost 15 years to get 5 million (0.5% of the way), I'd naively extrapolate 3000 years to get a billion. But the topics may peter out, so I'm going to give it 200 extra years.
Double sharp (
talk)
16:21, 1 November 2015 (UTC)reply
Well, at the rate Wikipedia is expanding, I'd say between 2027 and 2031.
Reason: Wikipedians will invent Twinkle++, the ultimate tool, as well as thousands of bots that generate articles en masse. If one bot generates a thousand articles each day, and there are over a thousand bots, there would be over a million articles generated per day, resulting in around 3 years of work only. With human editors, that would go down to about 2 years and 11 months (give or take), if we don't care about existing articles and vandalism. Even if we do, it'll still be 3 years at least.
The "oldid" field of the
first edit is 908,493,298 (nine hundred and eight million, four hundred and ninty-three thousand, and two hundred ninty-eight). Consequently, Wikipedia can be expected to break once an edit is made past the 908,493,297th edit. So, Wikipedia will never reach the billionth edit. --
TypicalWikimedian (
talk •
contribs)
17:57, 28 June 2021 (UTC)reply
This Name Isn't Available So I did the math, and if there's 6 million articles (as of typing this) and wikipedia is over 8500 days old, that equates to around 800 articles made a day. If this constant rate is kept up, then we should reach the 1-billionth edit in the year 5446. And I'm fairly certain that nobody reading this article (yes, including you) will ever live to see that year. So while it might not be possible in our lifetime, it probably will be in future generations.