This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 |
Thanks for adding some actual science to this article, William!
I'm so tired of ignorant hacks (like me ;-) just pasting in poorly-reworded summaries of popular articles or propagandistic advocacy pieces!! -- Uncle Ed 14:29, 10 Aug 2004 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 21:40, 10 Aug 2004 (UTC)) Hey, you said it :-) Anyway: re Spencer Weart: firstly I don't think this belongs here, at the front (I would move it but can't at the moment). Connection to sfc T is the only reason you (or I, to be fair) care about solar var, but its not its primary characteristic. Secondly, what you quote is *history* from 1975! Wiki should be presenting the present-day opinion. Oh, and I changed the quote style at bit.
I don't understand what's going on with the recent spate of reversions - surely references at end using templates are better than inline refs? Enochlau 10:52, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
I don't know the status of the footnoting debate, but the edit I just reverted did not make a footnote - just put the URL inline rather than as #1. I see the edit comment rv WMC's destructive wiki edit as inflamatory and uncalled for. If SEW wants to use an as yet poorly defined footnote style, then make the ref in question #1 in the footnote list. I feel inline references (with a list of refs at the end) preferable as well as much easier to use and manage by future editors to the page. I have experimented with the style SEW wants to use here in other articles and found it cumbersome. Let's keep the edit comments civil, please. Vsmith 20:57, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
We're not talking about books. These are inline refs to web pages. Introducing a cumbrous system that makes it impossible to add new refs without re-numbering all the exising ones is unmaintainable. Your point about FA is bizarre: if true, its a huge hole in the FA system, but I suspect you're simply wrong. FA need good refs, not to use the broken fn3 system. William M. Connolley 15:11, 3 October 2005 (UTC).
Wikipedia:Verifiability policy prefer more detailed source references over less detailed. William M. Connolley has been destroying more detailed source entries due to being "icky". Which policy covers "icky"? ( SEWilco 02:32, 16 October 2005 (UTC))
The table of events is currently:
Solar activity events and approximate dates Event Start End Oort minimum 1040 1080 Medieval maximum (see Medieval Warm Period) 1100 1250 Wolf minimum 1280 1350 Spörer Minimum 1450 1550 Maunder Minimum 1645 1715 Dalton Minimum 1790 1820
I'm curious about the first two (and perhaps the third). They can't be read from the graphs on the page and I can't see any other source. Where is the info from? The Oort min is smack in the middle of the MWP period, incidentally. William M. Connolley 16:06, 31 October 2005 (UTC).
What should be in the global warming / climate change section is a link to Axial_tilt. That and the related Arctic_Circle and Antarctic_circle need a bit of numbers disambiguation on the variation in how much Earth's axial tilt changes.
Climate change is driven by BOTH variations in solar output and the continously varying tilt of Earth's axis, which at present is decreasing. Think about the effect that has on the amount of surface area that's in constant darkness from 24 hours to six months per year, and how that affects the net heat loss.
The entire GW section is poor, presenting marginal research with far too much priority. The Mainstream view isn't presented at all!
I cut out all the S+V stuff. It looks like it wsa put in by people who hadn't even read the papers. So I cu:
Firstly, most of this has little to do with GW. Secondly its all marginal. Thirdly Also, by looking at the temperature changes not ascribed to cosmic rays, they estimated that the climate response to doubling CO2 is only about 0.75 °C doesn't seem to be supported by the paper: what it *does* say is In summary, we find that with none of the CO2 reconstructions can the doubling effect of CO2 on low-latitude sea temperatures be larger than ~1.9 °C... which is somewhat different, no? And since global ch is larger than tropical, what they find is entirely *con*sistent with IPCC. Fourth its not clear than such far-past stuff (different continents etc) is terribly relevant.
I also took out:
This is a bit better, but still misrepresents the paper. William M. Connolley 17:38, 4 February 2006 (UTC).
There were some poor quality charts, often reszed screenshots from PDFs. I've tried to, where possible, collect the relevant raw data from publically available sources and reproduce the graphs. Please feel free to revert if they aren't of appropriate quality. I do have some issues with the Hallstadtzeit cycle chart - once I detrended the data I still didn't get anything much akin to the claimed 2000 year cycle - there are some general periodic trends but they are far from clear as the caption (which I didn't change significantly) states. I also have some issues with the Carbon/Sunspot graph. There simply doesn't appear to be any really significant correlation even with the claimed 20 to 60 year delay. What am I missing? Leland McInnes 03:52, 7 February 2006 (UTC)
AFAIK the 1470 year cycle (Braun?) is only proposed, not an observed cycle. And why was the 2.3kyr cycle removed? Also the periodicity of D-O events is not by any means certain: controversial would be better William M. Connolley 13:08, 19 March 2006 (UTC)
OK, well first off lets quote from your quote: Moreover, the 1,470-year climate response in the simulation is restricted to glacial climate and cannot be excited for substantially different (such as Holocene) boundary conditions; for these, the model response shows the frequencies of the applied forcing (,86.5 and 210 years), as also documented in various climate archives22,23,30. See how that effectively rubbishes Singers 1500 y stuff?
Now, we also have from the paper: But whereas pronounced solar cycles of ,87 and ,210 years are well known8–12, a ,1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected8. This means that whatever the virtues of this stuff, we *should not* be listing a 1470y solar cycle in "solar variation" - because even this paper admits its not there.
And lastly, I see you've totally ignored my And please stop talking about D-O "periodicity" as if it were settled fact: it isn't, which is irritating. Its Rahmstorfs theory mostly. He's a good chap (of course) but that doesn't mean we take his word as gospel (as you would no doubt say were I to paste in some of his opinions on GW as fact).
William M. Connolley 12:45, 20 March 2006 (UTC).
Ah. Well, that makes one particular decision rather easy William M. Connolley 10:08, 21 March 2006 (UTC)
I've been trying to figure out how to comment on this. Let me start by saying that I think Rahmstorf's 1500 year clock with some skipped beats does appear to be a statistically robust and surprising feature of the data. Enough so, that it may require some sort of explanation. What that explanation may be, I'm not prepared to speculate, except to note that a variety of astronomical and terrestrial possibilities exist for which there is very little evidence. [Though Bond's cosmogenic isotopes are probably the most interesting of what limited evidence does exist.]
On the more specific issue of Braun et al.'s explanation. Their work depends sensitively on assumptions about the stability and amplitude of solar cyclicity, and the dynamical characteristics of DO events. I consider several of their assumptions to be highly implausible and therefore, in my professional opinion, I regard the work as a whole to be very unlikely to be correct. I note that the paper is only a few months old, and at least this far there hasn't been a published criticism of it (as far as I am aware), but I would encourage people to treat it with a healthy dose of caution and scepticism. Dragons flight 19:38, 22 March 2006 (UTC)
Cut passage:
This argument is unsourced, and ignores the work of scientists Joanna D. Haigh and Sallie Baliunas. The intensity of sunlight reaching the earth correlates with sunspots. -- Uncle Ed 18:46, 26 January 2007 (UTC)
The solar periodic activity is described by the Hale cycle and can be represented by a formula
Y = 100[Cos(2π/3 + 2π(t-1941)/(2х11.862) + Cos 2π(t-1941)/19.859 ] File:Hale-cycle.gif
Or in a somewhat modified form:
Y = 100 abs [Cos(2π/3 + 2π(t-1941)/(2х11.862) + Cos 2π(t-1941)/19.859 ]
The absolute value is plotted against the numeric values of the existing sunspot records for the period 1750-2006.
Further reading:Evidence of a multi resonant system within solar periodic activity
LANL - Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA [10]
Solar forcing redirects to this page. Everywhere that this page uses the phrase solar forcing it is with the clear idea that the reader understands the term, but it is never defined. 71.112.17.22 23:51, 1 February 2007 (UTC)
What challenges? What does this mean... could it be rephrased slightly for the hard of understanding, regards
sbandrews 22:13, 25 February 2007 (UTC) ty
sbandrews 19:51, 1 March 2007 (UTC)
Do any of the scientists contributing to this page have access to the scientific papers exploring the relationship between solar cycle length and terrestial average temperature? -- Uncle Ed 19:38, 13 March 2007 (UTC)
Stott's rejoinder was cut from the article:
I didn't understand the horribly unbalanced part of the edit summary. [12] Isn't Journal of Climate a peer-reviewed scientific journal? -- Uncle Ed 11:37, 14 March 2007 (UTC)
It sounds like you're saying that we should give our readers an understand of the overall view, rather than suggesting that new ideas challenging the mainstream "are" mainstream. Am I getting you correctly? -- Uncle Ed 11:58, 14 March 2007 (UTC)
The page currently doesn't discuss that the satellite record is patched together from different satallites and there is no overall agreement on how to do this William M. Connolley 20:11, 15 March 2007 (UTC)
I have removed Image:Solar_variation_and_global_warming.gif since it misinterprets, and consequently misrepresents, the data. The data presented as "Solar Data" in the graph is a solar proxy in the form of 14C. More importantly the timescale used for "Solar Data" is the time-scale of 14C which lags 60 behind changes in solar activity (that is, if solar activity increases in 1900, we can expect to see corresponding changes in 14C around 1960), thus misrepresenting solar activity changes as occuring 60 years later than they actually do. Furthermore, by using proxy data rather than actual raw solar data (e.g sunspot number, for which there are very detailed records this century) more errors are introduced: 14C records are unreliable after 1950 due to nuclear testing, and post-1950 provide a poor proxy for solar data (which means solar data from 1890 onward is no longer well recorded in 14C). -- Leland McInnes 16:10, 26 March 2007 (UTC)
Cosmic Rays and Global Warming
It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity' are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance, which, of course, correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause.
Comments: Submitted to ICRC 2007
Count Iblis 00:56, 29 June 2007 (UTC)
There are a number of definite statements in this article which refer to controversial studies or simply studies that are preliminary, giving a misleading impression of the uncertainty surrounding many aspects of the science. It would good to start going through the items and putting in better qualifiers, but since this can sometimes be seen as partisan, would it be better to test the changes here first? 69.200.236.114 14:33, 8 July 2007 (UTC)
Is it true what this article says, that Neptune and Mars are also warming up? This article is being linked to on the Neptune article so it shouldn't be misleading, and if it is then it should be removed. -- Nathanael Bar-Aur L. 22:04, 2 December 2007 (UTC)
This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 |
Thanks for adding some actual science to this article, William!
I'm so tired of ignorant hacks (like me ;-) just pasting in poorly-reworded summaries of popular articles or propagandistic advocacy pieces!! -- Uncle Ed 14:29, 10 Aug 2004 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 21:40, 10 Aug 2004 (UTC)) Hey, you said it :-) Anyway: re Spencer Weart: firstly I don't think this belongs here, at the front (I would move it but can't at the moment). Connection to sfc T is the only reason you (or I, to be fair) care about solar var, but its not its primary characteristic. Secondly, what you quote is *history* from 1975! Wiki should be presenting the present-day opinion. Oh, and I changed the quote style at bit.
I don't understand what's going on with the recent spate of reversions - surely references at end using templates are better than inline refs? Enochlau 10:52, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
I don't know the status of the footnoting debate, but the edit I just reverted did not make a footnote - just put the URL inline rather than as #1. I see the edit comment rv WMC's destructive wiki edit as inflamatory and uncalled for. If SEW wants to use an as yet poorly defined footnote style, then make the ref in question #1 in the footnote list. I feel inline references (with a list of refs at the end) preferable as well as much easier to use and manage by future editors to the page. I have experimented with the style SEW wants to use here in other articles and found it cumbersome. Let's keep the edit comments civil, please. Vsmith 20:57, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
We're not talking about books. These are inline refs to web pages. Introducing a cumbrous system that makes it impossible to add new refs without re-numbering all the exising ones is unmaintainable. Your point about FA is bizarre: if true, its a huge hole in the FA system, but I suspect you're simply wrong. FA need good refs, not to use the broken fn3 system. William M. Connolley 15:11, 3 October 2005 (UTC).
Wikipedia:Verifiability policy prefer more detailed source references over less detailed. William M. Connolley has been destroying more detailed source entries due to being "icky". Which policy covers "icky"? ( SEWilco 02:32, 16 October 2005 (UTC))
The table of events is currently:
Solar activity events and approximate dates Event Start End Oort minimum 1040 1080 Medieval maximum (see Medieval Warm Period) 1100 1250 Wolf minimum 1280 1350 Spörer Minimum 1450 1550 Maunder Minimum 1645 1715 Dalton Minimum 1790 1820
I'm curious about the first two (and perhaps the third). They can't be read from the graphs on the page and I can't see any other source. Where is the info from? The Oort min is smack in the middle of the MWP period, incidentally. William M. Connolley 16:06, 31 October 2005 (UTC).
What should be in the global warming / climate change section is a link to Axial_tilt. That and the related Arctic_Circle and Antarctic_circle need a bit of numbers disambiguation on the variation in how much Earth's axial tilt changes.
Climate change is driven by BOTH variations in solar output and the continously varying tilt of Earth's axis, which at present is decreasing. Think about the effect that has on the amount of surface area that's in constant darkness from 24 hours to six months per year, and how that affects the net heat loss.
The entire GW section is poor, presenting marginal research with far too much priority. The Mainstream view isn't presented at all!
I cut out all the S+V stuff. It looks like it wsa put in by people who hadn't even read the papers. So I cu:
Firstly, most of this has little to do with GW. Secondly its all marginal. Thirdly Also, by looking at the temperature changes not ascribed to cosmic rays, they estimated that the climate response to doubling CO2 is only about 0.75 °C doesn't seem to be supported by the paper: what it *does* say is In summary, we find that with none of the CO2 reconstructions can the doubling effect of CO2 on low-latitude sea temperatures be larger than ~1.9 °C... which is somewhat different, no? And since global ch is larger than tropical, what they find is entirely *con*sistent with IPCC. Fourth its not clear than such far-past stuff (different continents etc) is terribly relevant.
I also took out:
This is a bit better, but still misrepresents the paper. William M. Connolley 17:38, 4 February 2006 (UTC).
There were some poor quality charts, often reszed screenshots from PDFs. I've tried to, where possible, collect the relevant raw data from publically available sources and reproduce the graphs. Please feel free to revert if they aren't of appropriate quality. I do have some issues with the Hallstadtzeit cycle chart - once I detrended the data I still didn't get anything much akin to the claimed 2000 year cycle - there are some general periodic trends but they are far from clear as the caption (which I didn't change significantly) states. I also have some issues with the Carbon/Sunspot graph. There simply doesn't appear to be any really significant correlation even with the claimed 20 to 60 year delay. What am I missing? Leland McInnes 03:52, 7 February 2006 (UTC)
AFAIK the 1470 year cycle (Braun?) is only proposed, not an observed cycle. And why was the 2.3kyr cycle removed? Also the periodicity of D-O events is not by any means certain: controversial would be better William M. Connolley 13:08, 19 March 2006 (UTC)
OK, well first off lets quote from your quote: Moreover, the 1,470-year climate response in the simulation is restricted to glacial climate and cannot be excited for substantially different (such as Holocene) boundary conditions; for these, the model response shows the frequencies of the applied forcing (,86.5 and 210 years), as also documented in various climate archives22,23,30. See how that effectively rubbishes Singers 1500 y stuff?
Now, we also have from the paper: But whereas pronounced solar cycles of ,87 and ,210 years are well known8–12, a ,1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected8. This means that whatever the virtues of this stuff, we *should not* be listing a 1470y solar cycle in "solar variation" - because even this paper admits its not there.
And lastly, I see you've totally ignored my And please stop talking about D-O "periodicity" as if it were settled fact: it isn't, which is irritating. Its Rahmstorfs theory mostly. He's a good chap (of course) but that doesn't mean we take his word as gospel (as you would no doubt say were I to paste in some of his opinions on GW as fact).
William M. Connolley 12:45, 20 March 2006 (UTC).
Ah. Well, that makes one particular decision rather easy William M. Connolley 10:08, 21 March 2006 (UTC)
I've been trying to figure out how to comment on this. Let me start by saying that I think Rahmstorf's 1500 year clock with some skipped beats does appear to be a statistically robust and surprising feature of the data. Enough so, that it may require some sort of explanation. What that explanation may be, I'm not prepared to speculate, except to note that a variety of astronomical and terrestrial possibilities exist for which there is very little evidence. [Though Bond's cosmogenic isotopes are probably the most interesting of what limited evidence does exist.]
On the more specific issue of Braun et al.'s explanation. Their work depends sensitively on assumptions about the stability and amplitude of solar cyclicity, and the dynamical characteristics of DO events. I consider several of their assumptions to be highly implausible and therefore, in my professional opinion, I regard the work as a whole to be very unlikely to be correct. I note that the paper is only a few months old, and at least this far there hasn't been a published criticism of it (as far as I am aware), but I would encourage people to treat it with a healthy dose of caution and scepticism. Dragons flight 19:38, 22 March 2006 (UTC)
Cut passage:
This argument is unsourced, and ignores the work of scientists Joanna D. Haigh and Sallie Baliunas. The intensity of sunlight reaching the earth correlates with sunspots. -- Uncle Ed 18:46, 26 January 2007 (UTC)
The solar periodic activity is described by the Hale cycle and can be represented by a formula
Y = 100[Cos(2π/3 + 2π(t-1941)/(2х11.862) + Cos 2π(t-1941)/19.859 ] File:Hale-cycle.gif
Or in a somewhat modified form:
Y = 100 abs [Cos(2π/3 + 2π(t-1941)/(2х11.862) + Cos 2π(t-1941)/19.859 ]
The absolute value is plotted against the numeric values of the existing sunspot records for the period 1750-2006.
Further reading:Evidence of a multi resonant system within solar periodic activity
LANL - Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA [10]
Solar forcing redirects to this page. Everywhere that this page uses the phrase solar forcing it is with the clear idea that the reader understands the term, but it is never defined. 71.112.17.22 23:51, 1 February 2007 (UTC)
What challenges? What does this mean... could it be rephrased slightly for the hard of understanding, regards
sbandrews 22:13, 25 February 2007 (UTC) ty
sbandrews 19:51, 1 March 2007 (UTC)
Do any of the scientists contributing to this page have access to the scientific papers exploring the relationship between solar cycle length and terrestial average temperature? -- Uncle Ed 19:38, 13 March 2007 (UTC)
Stott's rejoinder was cut from the article:
I didn't understand the horribly unbalanced part of the edit summary. [12] Isn't Journal of Climate a peer-reviewed scientific journal? -- Uncle Ed 11:37, 14 March 2007 (UTC)
It sounds like you're saying that we should give our readers an understand of the overall view, rather than suggesting that new ideas challenging the mainstream "are" mainstream. Am I getting you correctly? -- Uncle Ed 11:58, 14 March 2007 (UTC)
The page currently doesn't discuss that the satellite record is patched together from different satallites and there is no overall agreement on how to do this William M. Connolley 20:11, 15 March 2007 (UTC)
I have removed Image:Solar_variation_and_global_warming.gif since it misinterprets, and consequently misrepresents, the data. The data presented as "Solar Data" in the graph is a solar proxy in the form of 14C. More importantly the timescale used for "Solar Data" is the time-scale of 14C which lags 60 behind changes in solar activity (that is, if solar activity increases in 1900, we can expect to see corresponding changes in 14C around 1960), thus misrepresenting solar activity changes as occuring 60 years later than they actually do. Furthermore, by using proxy data rather than actual raw solar data (e.g sunspot number, for which there are very detailed records this century) more errors are introduced: 14C records are unreliable after 1950 due to nuclear testing, and post-1950 provide a poor proxy for solar data (which means solar data from 1890 onward is no longer well recorded in 14C). -- Leland McInnes 16:10, 26 March 2007 (UTC)
Cosmic Rays and Global Warming
It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity' are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance, which, of course, correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause.
Comments: Submitted to ICRC 2007
Count Iblis 00:56, 29 June 2007 (UTC)
There are a number of definite statements in this article which refer to controversial studies or simply studies that are preliminary, giving a misleading impression of the uncertainty surrounding many aspects of the science. It would good to start going through the items and putting in better qualifiers, but since this can sometimes be seen as partisan, would it be better to test the changes here first? 69.200.236.114 14:33, 8 July 2007 (UTC)
Is it true what this article says, that Neptune and Mars are also warming up? This article is being linked to on the Neptune article so it shouldn't be misleading, and if it is then it should be removed. -- Nathanael Bar-Aur L. 22:04, 2 December 2007 (UTC)