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Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 |
I've reverted this section (again), and I want to specify my reasoning:
— Arthur Rubin (talk) 13:15, 6 August 2011 (UTC)
Finally, the report does not show a clear bias; they are merely reporting tax data...as am I. In what way is this biased? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 99.16.91.116 ( talk) 17:32, 6 August 2011 (UTC)
It seems that in matters concerning death or taxes, opinions count more than facts to many people. Wikipedia strives to be scholarly and based on reliable sources. Opinions may be quoted, if attributed and if it is stated that they are opinions, subject to WP:UNDUE. But many opinions about death and taxes are clothed as "fact" by the authors. Morpph's deleted commentary was particularly insightful in this regard.
WP requires that a source be reliable, and preferable a secondary source. Published scholarly research is given high priority in the reliability pecking order. Newspapers are given high priority when reporting events, and no priority when expressing an editorial comment. We as editors are to decide what is WP:RS and what is not. How do we tell the difference?
Scholarship traditionally requires that research details must be documented, available, verifiable, and replicable. Failure of any of these generally results in the research being considered unreliable, no matter how sound it may seem. For example, Jean-Baptiste_Lamarck proposed, researched, published, and made available extensive research on genetics. Others verified his data. Much of his work is the foundation of modern genetics. However, no one was ever able to replicate his work on one theory, because they could not get the type of lizard he used to breed. His Inheritance of acquired characteristics theory was discarded in favor of another theory. Neither has been proven, but the other theory met the four standards. Lamarck now warrants only 2 sentences in Genetics.
What, then, should we make of work by Urban Institute, Tax Foundation, and others who openly espouse particular views on tax? They publish extensive papers purporting to be research. They often do not make any details of their research available to anyone; they state openly that they have modified key measures of key items; we are asked to just trust them. Is their work scholarly? Who knows. Are details available, verifiable or replicable? Clearly not. I therefore posit that they should not be considered reliable sources. They are just opinions.
I have opinions, too. After 35+ years advising clients on detailed tax matters, I think mine are pretty good. However, I refrain from expressing them. They are, after all, just opinions.
As a final note, we should be discussing what is, not what could, might, or should be or have been. Respectfully, Oldtaxguy ( talk) 03:03, 8 August 2011 (UTC)
More Firms Enjoy Tax-Free Status by John D. McKinnon 10.January.2012 Wall Street Journal; excerpt ...
StoneMor Partners LP, the publicly traded firm that specializes in running cemeteries, expects to see handsome profits in coming years as baby boomers age and die. But unlike its largest rivals, its corporate tax bill from the federal government will be zero. StoneMor is among the many businesses organized so they don't pay a penny in federal corporate income tax. And yet such firms don't employ an army of accountants to shield profits in complex tax shelters. Their enviable tax position is perfectly legal and has been encouraged by Congress and state governments. Known as pass-throughs, these firms pass along ...
97.87.29.188 ( talk) 00:10, 11 January 2012 (UTC)
I've started a centralised discussion here regarding File:Employment growth by top tax rate.jpg, which is used in this article. Gabbe ( talk) 09:59, 6 November 2012 (UTC)
The recent report " A Brief Overview of Business Types and Their Tax Treatment" looks like a promising source for the article. II | ( t - c) 00:17, 17 June 2013 (UTC)
If you look at the creation history of this chart (by clicking on it) you can see that it was created by VictorD7 and is sourced to an unreliable right-wing organization known as the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. If the material is reliable and worth mentioning, it needs to be directly sourced to a weighted organization, which includes scholarship coming out of academia. VictorD7 has been insistent on pushing his right-wing agenda, which is harmful to creating a neutral presentation of data.
The reason for not being able to find a reliable source presenting this chart is because there isn't one that exists. The Tax Policy Center created no chart; the Peter G. Peterson Foundation did. By leaving out the dollar figures from Footnote #1 there is no context in relation to the tax rates, which creates a highly biased presentation. -- Somedifferentstuff ( talk) 11:08, 5 November 2013 (UTC)
I am confused about two things shown on this chart:
Cheers! bd2412 T 02:31, 22 December 2013 (UTC)
Summary - It looks like EllenCT is objecting to the corporate tax in this graph, suggesting it is not peer reviewed or that the ITEP graph model is better. The TPC uses the same method as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis (OTA). Their model is peer reviewed in many publications. Their figures are considered neutral and used to fact check other tax assertions. Here is what the TPC actually does with Corporate income taxes:
we estimate that 60 percent is borne by shareholders, 20 percent by all capital owners, and 20 percent by labor. Based on our review of research on the issue, we do not assign any of the burden to consumers. Previously, we assumed that the entire burden fell on all owners of capital. Our current assumptions are similar to those now made by CBO and Treasury. [3]
In addition, it looks like the ITEP, based on their FAQ, places all of the burden on capital holders (the reverse of what it seems EllenCT is arguing):
It is generally agreed that corporate income taxes, at both the state and federal level, fall primarily on owners of capital. In accordance with this theory, ITEP’s incidence analyses of state corporate income taxes typically distribute the incidence of the tax according to nationwide ownership of capital assets such as stocks and bonds.
So it's not even clear that the publication that EllenCT is using as a secondary source for the ITEP, which suggest a high burden attributed to labor, is the methodology the ITEP uses. See the section below for additional reasons why the ITEP graph is not suitable for inclusion. In conclusion, this graph is supported by TPC data, which is considered a non-partisan source. They use standard models that have been peer reviewed and are generally accepted. Morphh (talk) 17:59, 22 December 2013 (UTC)
Ellen said: "The meta analysis says corporations pass about half to three fourths of their taxes to consumers". False. I challenge Ellen to quote where anything she's linked to says that.
Ellen said: "...as VictorD7 has said, corporations do not pass 0% of their taxes on to their consumer customers, but closer to 50%". False. I never said any such thing, which is why she hasn't directly quoted me either.
Ellen said: "which means the ITEP graph is correct and the Peterson graph is intentionally misleading in this case". False on both counts. The ITEP graph attributes corp. taxes to capital, even approvingly citing the CBO position and railing against the notion of attributing it to consumers. The "Peterson graph" is simply a faithful and visually informative representation of Tax Policy Center data. Presumably Ellen actually has a beef with the TPC, though she has yet to offer a coherent, rational critique of it or even start a Talk Page section for the purpose of ostensibly doing so.
The TPC analysis of analyses Ellen linked to (which doesn't even mention the word "consumers" on page 17, contrary to her claims) cites several attempts to empirically study the issue that reach wildly divergent conclusions, along with criticisms of some of the studies by other studies. TPC adopted the various results as assumptions, tested them each, and reached this conclusion: "Most economic studies of corporate tax incidence acknowledge that capital will bear the bulk of the burden in the short run, but there is little consensus about the long-run incidence of the tax....This paper reaches three related conclusions. First, because wage and capital income are highly correlated, higher-income taxpayers will pay a relatively larger share of the tax, regardless of whether the corporate income tax falls on labor or capital. Second, even if capital income is broadly defined to include income accrued to tax-preferred retirement accounts, this conclusion is little-changed. Third, the incidence of the corporate tax has only a modest effect on overall progressivity simply because the tax collects only a small fraction of federal revenues....The paper uses the Tax Policy Center microsimulation model to estimate the progressivity of the corporate tax—and the tax code in general—under the alternative assumptions that capital bears 20 percent, 50 percent, or 80 percent of the corporate tax burden. Under all three assumptions, average corporate tax rates generally rise with income, indicating progressivity... Furthermore, because the corporate income tax is small relative to other tax sources, assumptions about corporate tax incidence have little effect on the overall progressivity of the tax code. This paper illustrates this point by estimating average corporate tax rates under the assumption of doubled corporate tax revenue relative to the baseline. This scenario only modestly changes the tax code’s overall progressivity. These conclusions form a single lesson about corporate tax incidence and progressivity: while corporate tax incidence may affect the allocation of resources across sectors and borders, it has little impact on the corporate tax’s progressivity. Even under drastically differing assumptions, the corporate tax is a progressive aspect of the tax code."
That's from Ellen's own source. Here's a reminder of what her primary source, ITEP, has to say: "How does ITEP estimate the incidence of corporate income taxes? It is generally agreed that corporate income taxes, at both the state and federal level, fall primarily on owners of capital. In accordance with this theory, ITEP’s incidence analyses of state corporate income taxes typically distribute the incidence of the tax according to nationwide ownership of capital assets such as stocks and bonds.....The incidence of the tax in ITEP’s analyses is generally quite progressive, because the vast majority of capital income nationwide is held by the very best-off Americans." And ITEP's lobbying arm, CTJ (Ellen's actual graph source): "The Corporate Income Tax Is Borne by Shareholders and Thus Very Progressive....Corporate leaders sometimes assert that corporate income taxes are really borne by workers or consumers. But virtually all tax experts, including those at the Congressional Budget Office, the Congressional Research Service and the Treasury Department, have concluded that the owners of stock and other capital ultimately pay most corporate taxes.[5] Further, corporate leaders would not lobby Congress to lower these taxes if they did not believe their shareholders (the owners of corporations) ultimately paid them. (In contrast, corporations do not lobby for lower payroll taxes, which are borne by workers)."
Here's a survey of peer reviewed literature by a CBO employee, which is far more credible and authoritative than Ellen's shaky personal opinions: "For years following the publication of Harberger’s seminal paper in 1962, his conclusion—that the burden of the corporate tax tends to fall entirely on capital—has largely withstood modifications to his model’s underlying assumptions...Perhaps because of the early uncertainty about how to estimate corporate tax incidence, research initially turned to new methods of empirical analysis. Krzyzaniak and Musgrave (1963) used emerging regression techniques to explain rates of return on capital as a function of tax rates. They found that more than 100 percent of the tax was shifted to consumers in the short run. This result was inconsistent with theoretical models of profit maximization in competitive markets. In several studies, economists tested Krzyzaniak and Musgrave’s results, some finding contradictory results and some confirming the analysis. Cragg, Harberger, and Mieszkowski (1967) cautioned that one should be skeptical of a framework generating fragile and volatile outcomes. Around the same time that Krzyzaniak and Musgrave were conducting their empirical analysis, Harberger (1962) was developing his general equilibrium model of corporate tax incidence. Ultimately, because of the non-robust results the empirical studies offered, the research community appeared to have abandoned the empirical line of research in favor of Harberger’s model. Harberger’s model employed a drastically different approach to the direct empirical analysis by constructing a theoretical two-sector general equilibrium model to trace the effects of a tax on capital income in one sector. A primary contribution of his model to the early analysis of corporate tax incidence was that the burden of the tax is borne by factor income—capital and labor—and is not shifted forward to consumers....Based on his model specifications and his estimates for the values of the relevant elasticities, Harberger concluded that the majority of the tax burden fell on capital. Following the introduction of Harberger’s model, numerous studies made further refinements and adjustments to the original model. Although those studies sometimes yielded different results, none of the studies ruled out the possibility that, under largely reasonable assumptions, capital would bear a large share of the corporate tax burden." (after analyzing four more recent studies with divergent results...) "Taken together, these results, albeit imperfect, suggest that an assumption that 40 percent of the corporate tax burden falls on labor and 60 percent falls on capital is consistent with open-economy models and with the current empirical evidence regarding the appropriate parameter values for those models"...(after reviewing further studies and approaches...) "This review suggests that the assumption of an open economy is not sufficient to conclude that much of the burden of the corporate tax is shifted to labor. Indeed, assumptions of highly mobile capital and highly substitutable products, internationally, are needed to ensure that the majority of the tax is borne by labor. Relaxing the assumptions of perfect mobility changes the burden allocation to indicate that, even in an open economy, a majority of the corporate tax burden, perhaps 60 percent, is still borne by capital. In addition, concerns arise over the reliance on these empirically-based general equilibrium models, extensively developed as they are, because they cannot fully reflect important aspects of the U.S. corporate tax or the nature of global interactions with other countries. Existing evidence of the linkage between U.S. tax policy and that of other countries suggests, at least with regard to the burden of the corporate income tax, that the United States operates in more of a closed economy than these models assume, even with the imperfect international mobility assumptions, suggesting capital would bear the bulk of the corporate tax. The nature of these models is to measure changes in the corporate tax and may not be appropriate for allocating the full amount of an existing tax. Given that the worldwide corporate tax should fall on worldwide capital, an alternative approach to determining the incidence of the current corporate tax may be to allocate the worldwide average to capital and to allocate country deviations from that average as changes in the corporate tax, using the open-economy model’s estimates. Under this approach, more than 90 percent of the burden of the corporate tax should be allocated to capital. Even when using the standard open-economy models, it is clear that minor additions of rigidity through immobile capital or imperfect product substitution can result in capital bearing a major portion of the tax. The open economy assumption should not be synonymous with the conclusion that labor bears more of the burden of the corporate tax than capital does."
Ellen's Altshuler paper also starts by acknowledging the 1962 Harberger study that found "the corporate tax is likely borne by all owners of capital" and that has held sway for decades, calling it "seminal". The paper goes on to analyze some recent studies finding that labor bears a large portion of corporate taxes, but cites some other recent studies that disagree. The word "consumers" doesn't appear in the Altshuler piece. It also features industry specific wage burden impacts. Obviously people don't just shop at the company they work for.
So we've got the experts agreeing that the model showing capital bearing most or all of the corporate tax burden has held sway in scholarly research for decades. In recent years there's been an increase in studies exploring the possibility that under different assumptions labor might bear at least a significant minority of the burden (though the ranges differ sharply), at least in the long term, though those studies have been criticized by other studies and the long term empirical situation lacks a clear consensus.
Meanwhile all three tax incidence sources have traditionally attributed all corporate taxes to capital, though very recently the CBO and Tax Policy Center have modified their methodologies to attribute most to capital and a minority to labor, including in the TPC chart being discussed. ITEP apparently still attributes corporate taxes solely to capital. Ellen's own link points out that corporate taxes are still progressive under even drastically differing capital/labor incidence assumptions (by contrast, consumption taxes are generally considered considered to be regressive), and are too small a component of federal revenue to significantly impact overall progressivity anyway. Even then the TPC/PGPF chart helpfully color codes the component breakdown so readers can see the corporate tax and set it aside if they want to. This entire corporate incidence tangent by Ellen is a red herring, and her statements have proved false on multiple levels. VictorD7 ( talk) 01:31, 26 December 2013 (UTC)
Does the ITEP use over 50%? Based on their FAQ, they're the one at 0%. In any case, of the four articles published in the 2013 NTJ, only one suggested labor was a major factor (the one you referenced). None of them suggested consumers. While they may be the most recent, that works against them as they've not had any impact yet on mainstream economics - they fall into a tiny minority - newly published theories and models. What makes them relevant is practical use by organizations like the CBO, Treasury, and tax policy institutes after they review all the latest research. As for most reliable, that's pure speculation - they can't all be the most reliable. We're not here to cherry pick what you think is the most reliable. We'll use the industry consensus, which the TPC does. Morphh (talk) 04:30, 29 December 2013 (UTC)
[7] is cited as the source yet the graph [8] does not appear in the paper. also, the graph cites the 2000 tax year, the paper was written in 1999. i will remove the graph without objection in 24-48 hours. Darkstar1st ( talk) 18:43, 1 January 2014 (UTC)
I noticed these two graphs in the article. The seem POV and I don't see how they're helpful to the average reader. Morphh (talk) 20:23, 31 December 2013 (UTC)
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![]() | This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 |
I've reverted this section (again), and I want to specify my reasoning:
— Arthur Rubin (talk) 13:15, 6 August 2011 (UTC)
Finally, the report does not show a clear bias; they are merely reporting tax data...as am I. In what way is this biased? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 99.16.91.116 ( talk) 17:32, 6 August 2011 (UTC)
It seems that in matters concerning death or taxes, opinions count more than facts to many people. Wikipedia strives to be scholarly and based on reliable sources. Opinions may be quoted, if attributed and if it is stated that they are opinions, subject to WP:UNDUE. But many opinions about death and taxes are clothed as "fact" by the authors. Morpph's deleted commentary was particularly insightful in this regard.
WP requires that a source be reliable, and preferable a secondary source. Published scholarly research is given high priority in the reliability pecking order. Newspapers are given high priority when reporting events, and no priority when expressing an editorial comment. We as editors are to decide what is WP:RS and what is not. How do we tell the difference?
Scholarship traditionally requires that research details must be documented, available, verifiable, and replicable. Failure of any of these generally results in the research being considered unreliable, no matter how sound it may seem. For example, Jean-Baptiste_Lamarck proposed, researched, published, and made available extensive research on genetics. Others verified his data. Much of his work is the foundation of modern genetics. However, no one was ever able to replicate his work on one theory, because they could not get the type of lizard he used to breed. His Inheritance of acquired characteristics theory was discarded in favor of another theory. Neither has been proven, but the other theory met the four standards. Lamarck now warrants only 2 sentences in Genetics.
What, then, should we make of work by Urban Institute, Tax Foundation, and others who openly espouse particular views on tax? They publish extensive papers purporting to be research. They often do not make any details of their research available to anyone; they state openly that they have modified key measures of key items; we are asked to just trust them. Is their work scholarly? Who knows. Are details available, verifiable or replicable? Clearly not. I therefore posit that they should not be considered reliable sources. They are just opinions.
I have opinions, too. After 35+ years advising clients on detailed tax matters, I think mine are pretty good. However, I refrain from expressing them. They are, after all, just opinions.
As a final note, we should be discussing what is, not what could, might, or should be or have been. Respectfully, Oldtaxguy ( talk) 03:03, 8 August 2011 (UTC)
More Firms Enjoy Tax-Free Status by John D. McKinnon 10.January.2012 Wall Street Journal; excerpt ...
StoneMor Partners LP, the publicly traded firm that specializes in running cemeteries, expects to see handsome profits in coming years as baby boomers age and die. But unlike its largest rivals, its corporate tax bill from the federal government will be zero. StoneMor is among the many businesses organized so they don't pay a penny in federal corporate income tax. And yet such firms don't employ an army of accountants to shield profits in complex tax shelters. Their enviable tax position is perfectly legal and has been encouraged by Congress and state governments. Known as pass-throughs, these firms pass along ...
97.87.29.188 ( talk) 00:10, 11 January 2012 (UTC)
I've started a centralised discussion here regarding File:Employment growth by top tax rate.jpg, which is used in this article. Gabbe ( talk) 09:59, 6 November 2012 (UTC)
The recent report " A Brief Overview of Business Types and Their Tax Treatment" looks like a promising source for the article. II | ( t - c) 00:17, 17 June 2013 (UTC)
If you look at the creation history of this chart (by clicking on it) you can see that it was created by VictorD7 and is sourced to an unreliable right-wing organization known as the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. If the material is reliable and worth mentioning, it needs to be directly sourced to a weighted organization, which includes scholarship coming out of academia. VictorD7 has been insistent on pushing his right-wing agenda, which is harmful to creating a neutral presentation of data.
The reason for not being able to find a reliable source presenting this chart is because there isn't one that exists. The Tax Policy Center created no chart; the Peter G. Peterson Foundation did. By leaving out the dollar figures from Footnote #1 there is no context in relation to the tax rates, which creates a highly biased presentation. -- Somedifferentstuff ( talk) 11:08, 5 November 2013 (UTC)
I am confused about two things shown on this chart:
Cheers! bd2412 T 02:31, 22 December 2013 (UTC)
Summary - It looks like EllenCT is objecting to the corporate tax in this graph, suggesting it is not peer reviewed or that the ITEP graph model is better. The TPC uses the same method as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis (OTA). Their model is peer reviewed in many publications. Their figures are considered neutral and used to fact check other tax assertions. Here is what the TPC actually does with Corporate income taxes:
we estimate that 60 percent is borne by shareholders, 20 percent by all capital owners, and 20 percent by labor. Based on our review of research on the issue, we do not assign any of the burden to consumers. Previously, we assumed that the entire burden fell on all owners of capital. Our current assumptions are similar to those now made by CBO and Treasury. [3]
In addition, it looks like the ITEP, based on their FAQ, places all of the burden on capital holders (the reverse of what it seems EllenCT is arguing):
It is generally agreed that corporate income taxes, at both the state and federal level, fall primarily on owners of capital. In accordance with this theory, ITEP’s incidence analyses of state corporate income taxes typically distribute the incidence of the tax according to nationwide ownership of capital assets such as stocks and bonds.
So it's not even clear that the publication that EllenCT is using as a secondary source for the ITEP, which suggest a high burden attributed to labor, is the methodology the ITEP uses. See the section below for additional reasons why the ITEP graph is not suitable for inclusion. In conclusion, this graph is supported by TPC data, which is considered a non-partisan source. They use standard models that have been peer reviewed and are generally accepted. Morphh (talk) 17:59, 22 December 2013 (UTC)
Ellen said: "The meta analysis says corporations pass about half to three fourths of their taxes to consumers". False. I challenge Ellen to quote where anything she's linked to says that.
Ellen said: "...as VictorD7 has said, corporations do not pass 0% of their taxes on to their consumer customers, but closer to 50%". False. I never said any such thing, which is why she hasn't directly quoted me either.
Ellen said: "which means the ITEP graph is correct and the Peterson graph is intentionally misleading in this case". False on both counts. The ITEP graph attributes corp. taxes to capital, even approvingly citing the CBO position and railing against the notion of attributing it to consumers. The "Peterson graph" is simply a faithful and visually informative representation of Tax Policy Center data. Presumably Ellen actually has a beef with the TPC, though she has yet to offer a coherent, rational critique of it or even start a Talk Page section for the purpose of ostensibly doing so.
The TPC analysis of analyses Ellen linked to (which doesn't even mention the word "consumers" on page 17, contrary to her claims) cites several attempts to empirically study the issue that reach wildly divergent conclusions, along with criticisms of some of the studies by other studies. TPC adopted the various results as assumptions, tested them each, and reached this conclusion: "Most economic studies of corporate tax incidence acknowledge that capital will bear the bulk of the burden in the short run, but there is little consensus about the long-run incidence of the tax....This paper reaches three related conclusions. First, because wage and capital income are highly correlated, higher-income taxpayers will pay a relatively larger share of the tax, regardless of whether the corporate income tax falls on labor or capital. Second, even if capital income is broadly defined to include income accrued to tax-preferred retirement accounts, this conclusion is little-changed. Third, the incidence of the corporate tax has only a modest effect on overall progressivity simply because the tax collects only a small fraction of federal revenues....The paper uses the Tax Policy Center microsimulation model to estimate the progressivity of the corporate tax—and the tax code in general—under the alternative assumptions that capital bears 20 percent, 50 percent, or 80 percent of the corporate tax burden. Under all three assumptions, average corporate tax rates generally rise with income, indicating progressivity... Furthermore, because the corporate income tax is small relative to other tax sources, assumptions about corporate tax incidence have little effect on the overall progressivity of the tax code. This paper illustrates this point by estimating average corporate tax rates under the assumption of doubled corporate tax revenue relative to the baseline. This scenario only modestly changes the tax code’s overall progressivity. These conclusions form a single lesson about corporate tax incidence and progressivity: while corporate tax incidence may affect the allocation of resources across sectors and borders, it has little impact on the corporate tax’s progressivity. Even under drastically differing assumptions, the corporate tax is a progressive aspect of the tax code."
That's from Ellen's own source. Here's a reminder of what her primary source, ITEP, has to say: "How does ITEP estimate the incidence of corporate income taxes? It is generally agreed that corporate income taxes, at both the state and federal level, fall primarily on owners of capital. In accordance with this theory, ITEP’s incidence analyses of state corporate income taxes typically distribute the incidence of the tax according to nationwide ownership of capital assets such as stocks and bonds.....The incidence of the tax in ITEP’s analyses is generally quite progressive, because the vast majority of capital income nationwide is held by the very best-off Americans." And ITEP's lobbying arm, CTJ (Ellen's actual graph source): "The Corporate Income Tax Is Borne by Shareholders and Thus Very Progressive....Corporate leaders sometimes assert that corporate income taxes are really borne by workers or consumers. But virtually all tax experts, including those at the Congressional Budget Office, the Congressional Research Service and the Treasury Department, have concluded that the owners of stock and other capital ultimately pay most corporate taxes.[5] Further, corporate leaders would not lobby Congress to lower these taxes if they did not believe their shareholders (the owners of corporations) ultimately paid them. (In contrast, corporations do not lobby for lower payroll taxes, which are borne by workers)."
Here's a survey of peer reviewed literature by a CBO employee, which is far more credible and authoritative than Ellen's shaky personal opinions: "For years following the publication of Harberger’s seminal paper in 1962, his conclusion—that the burden of the corporate tax tends to fall entirely on capital—has largely withstood modifications to his model’s underlying assumptions...Perhaps because of the early uncertainty about how to estimate corporate tax incidence, research initially turned to new methods of empirical analysis. Krzyzaniak and Musgrave (1963) used emerging regression techniques to explain rates of return on capital as a function of tax rates. They found that more than 100 percent of the tax was shifted to consumers in the short run. This result was inconsistent with theoretical models of profit maximization in competitive markets. In several studies, economists tested Krzyzaniak and Musgrave’s results, some finding contradictory results and some confirming the analysis. Cragg, Harberger, and Mieszkowski (1967) cautioned that one should be skeptical of a framework generating fragile and volatile outcomes. Around the same time that Krzyzaniak and Musgrave were conducting their empirical analysis, Harberger (1962) was developing his general equilibrium model of corporate tax incidence. Ultimately, because of the non-robust results the empirical studies offered, the research community appeared to have abandoned the empirical line of research in favor of Harberger’s model. Harberger’s model employed a drastically different approach to the direct empirical analysis by constructing a theoretical two-sector general equilibrium model to trace the effects of a tax on capital income in one sector. A primary contribution of his model to the early analysis of corporate tax incidence was that the burden of the tax is borne by factor income—capital and labor—and is not shifted forward to consumers....Based on his model specifications and his estimates for the values of the relevant elasticities, Harberger concluded that the majority of the tax burden fell on capital. Following the introduction of Harberger’s model, numerous studies made further refinements and adjustments to the original model. Although those studies sometimes yielded different results, none of the studies ruled out the possibility that, under largely reasonable assumptions, capital would bear a large share of the corporate tax burden." (after analyzing four more recent studies with divergent results...) "Taken together, these results, albeit imperfect, suggest that an assumption that 40 percent of the corporate tax burden falls on labor and 60 percent falls on capital is consistent with open-economy models and with the current empirical evidence regarding the appropriate parameter values for those models"...(after reviewing further studies and approaches...) "This review suggests that the assumption of an open economy is not sufficient to conclude that much of the burden of the corporate tax is shifted to labor. Indeed, assumptions of highly mobile capital and highly substitutable products, internationally, are needed to ensure that the majority of the tax is borne by labor. Relaxing the assumptions of perfect mobility changes the burden allocation to indicate that, even in an open economy, a majority of the corporate tax burden, perhaps 60 percent, is still borne by capital. In addition, concerns arise over the reliance on these empirically-based general equilibrium models, extensively developed as they are, because they cannot fully reflect important aspects of the U.S. corporate tax or the nature of global interactions with other countries. Existing evidence of the linkage between U.S. tax policy and that of other countries suggests, at least with regard to the burden of the corporate income tax, that the United States operates in more of a closed economy than these models assume, even with the imperfect international mobility assumptions, suggesting capital would bear the bulk of the corporate tax. The nature of these models is to measure changes in the corporate tax and may not be appropriate for allocating the full amount of an existing tax. Given that the worldwide corporate tax should fall on worldwide capital, an alternative approach to determining the incidence of the current corporate tax may be to allocate the worldwide average to capital and to allocate country deviations from that average as changes in the corporate tax, using the open-economy model’s estimates. Under this approach, more than 90 percent of the burden of the corporate tax should be allocated to capital. Even when using the standard open-economy models, it is clear that minor additions of rigidity through immobile capital or imperfect product substitution can result in capital bearing a major portion of the tax. The open economy assumption should not be synonymous with the conclusion that labor bears more of the burden of the corporate tax than capital does."
Ellen's Altshuler paper also starts by acknowledging the 1962 Harberger study that found "the corporate tax is likely borne by all owners of capital" and that has held sway for decades, calling it "seminal". The paper goes on to analyze some recent studies finding that labor bears a large portion of corporate taxes, but cites some other recent studies that disagree. The word "consumers" doesn't appear in the Altshuler piece. It also features industry specific wage burden impacts. Obviously people don't just shop at the company they work for.
So we've got the experts agreeing that the model showing capital bearing most or all of the corporate tax burden has held sway in scholarly research for decades. In recent years there's been an increase in studies exploring the possibility that under different assumptions labor might bear at least a significant minority of the burden (though the ranges differ sharply), at least in the long term, though those studies have been criticized by other studies and the long term empirical situation lacks a clear consensus.
Meanwhile all three tax incidence sources have traditionally attributed all corporate taxes to capital, though very recently the CBO and Tax Policy Center have modified their methodologies to attribute most to capital and a minority to labor, including in the TPC chart being discussed. ITEP apparently still attributes corporate taxes solely to capital. Ellen's own link points out that corporate taxes are still progressive under even drastically differing capital/labor incidence assumptions (by contrast, consumption taxes are generally considered considered to be regressive), and are too small a component of federal revenue to significantly impact overall progressivity anyway. Even then the TPC/PGPF chart helpfully color codes the component breakdown so readers can see the corporate tax and set it aside if they want to. This entire corporate incidence tangent by Ellen is a red herring, and her statements have proved false on multiple levels. VictorD7 ( talk) 01:31, 26 December 2013 (UTC)
Does the ITEP use over 50%? Based on their FAQ, they're the one at 0%. In any case, of the four articles published in the 2013 NTJ, only one suggested labor was a major factor (the one you referenced). None of them suggested consumers. While they may be the most recent, that works against them as they've not had any impact yet on mainstream economics - they fall into a tiny minority - newly published theories and models. What makes them relevant is practical use by organizations like the CBO, Treasury, and tax policy institutes after they review all the latest research. As for most reliable, that's pure speculation - they can't all be the most reliable. We're not here to cherry pick what you think is the most reliable. We'll use the industry consensus, which the TPC does. Morphh (talk) 04:30, 29 December 2013 (UTC)
[7] is cited as the source yet the graph [8] does not appear in the paper. also, the graph cites the 2000 tax year, the paper was written in 1999. i will remove the graph without objection in 24-48 hours. Darkstar1st ( talk) 18:43, 1 January 2014 (UTC)
I noticed these two graphs in the article. The seem POV and I don't see how they're helpful to the average reader. Morphh (talk) 20:23, 31 December 2013 (UTC)
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