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Happy Memorial_day greetings. Remember ancestors in the 1940_census and the men and women who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces.
Citizens of the Lone Star State of Texas vote tomorrow, Tuesday: Texas_Republican_primary,_2012. I'm interested in how Ron Paul does in his own state. Will Gingrich and Santorum have equal votes with Ron Paul? And will Romney win the majority since he has the momentum? We'll see shortly. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:48, 28 May 2012 (UTC)
I hope everyone here bears in mind that even if Romney takes all 152 delegates tonight, he would still be at least 20 votes (by Wiki's current estimate) shy of clinching. The media, however, seems poised to go gangbusters with the "Romney clinches" headlines, since they're all using the incorrect AP count, which has been doing everyone but perhaps the Romney camp a great disservice. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 22:58, 29 May 2012 (UTC)
Per the Green Papers "The Texas Republican State Convention is set for Thursday 7 June...This leaves only a week and a half between the primary and delegate election-- it is unlikely that the vote could be certified in time. The party may need to decouple the selection of National Convention delegates from the primary election." Anybody know if this is likely to happen? Maybe it depends on how close the results are? 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 23:11, 29 May 2012 (UTC)
Reports were that Romney needed 89 delegates in the Texas win to "clinch" the Nomination; Ron Paul get 11 and Romney got 93, (over by 4 delegates). See the Texas Green papers and also the Wikipedia page, already with these results. Certification won't change his 76% popular vote in TX, (or whatever it ends up.) Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 01:50, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
Just to get a few point straight.
Paul cant show a plurality in Nevada, because his supporters there is bound to Romney just as they are in Massachusetts. This subject have been discussed in lenght so see the many sections now archived. In Colorado Romney can actually show a plurality. So right now Paul can show a plurality in Minnesota and Maine. It is most likely (taken by unofficial numbers from county conventions and caucuses) that Paul will be able to show a plurality in Washington State and Louisana when this week is over. I think this cycle have taught us to never guess what will happen in Missouri
. Later on Iowas will properly go Pauls way and then he will have five states.
And about the delegatecount - Remember that most softcount you see around the web is projected, the soft count in this article is unprojected. That means it is made up of delegates that have to vote for a candidate like it or not and (finalized and elected) delegates that are strong supporters of a candidate. How big a chance is it that such a softcount will change? The hardcount is as always only the delegates that have to vote for a candidate even if they really dont want to. Kept out of this count is the RNC delegates that are not a part of the election process but will be voting delegates by virtue of their position in the party. They are kept out because even if they are strong supporters of a candidate the have considerations that lies beyond this primary process.
So has Romney secured his majority?
That said it would be extremly unlikely that Romney will not have a hardcount majority by this time next week. Jack Bornholm ( talk) 08:24, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
I see there are a few points that need to be addressed. Now, before I attempt to do so, I'd like to offer my thanks to Mr. Bornholm for his seemingly tireless attention to all these primary-related pages. You are a longtime steward of this article, so I am confident that all the delegate numbers you have posted above are accurate as much as they can be, given their respective parameters & what is known publicly. They also affirm my longstanding position that Romney did not clinch the nomination yesterday, but will likely do so, per official counts, after the June 5 California primary. However, this is still May, not June, so any language in the article that claims that Romney has "won" the primary should be stricken until we know it to be true, as I would hate the idea that any prospective voters in CA, etc. did not show up based on false information written here, more than have already decided not to vote anyway. Obama or anyone else can shout until they turn blue that Romney has clinched, but the facts are the facts, and the reality is that as of today, it simply isn't true, and Obama's opinion is irrelevant, unless he has information not available publicly that he would like to share with us on this matter.
Now, as for convention procedure. I understand that many of these issues have been raised in prior posts and can be found in archives. However, it seems that some of the conclusions drawn from those discussions are incorrect, so I feel compelled to post more information here. I agree that this article must stick to official counts, hard or otherwise, so some of the following information would be better suited in an article on the convention, rather than the primaries. That said, it is important that we are all on the same page on these issues.
Bear with me a moment and ignore state-party imposed bindings. I think it is evident that if a majority of the delegates on the floor in Tampa are supporters of either Paul or Romney, their candidate will be nominated, and they will likely antagonize the other side in the process. When assembled collectively, RNC delegates are the Republican Party, acting as its supreme legislative body. It can override any and all state party rules or laws (see here), and, as a private party, is largely insulated from government action (much like free speech rights may be more restrictive in private schools). The more tricky scenarios arise when no candidate has majority support on the floor (again, ignoring bindings). This is when issues like Rules 32, 38, 40(b), abstentions & alternates, etc. come into play. As an aside, I will note that Romney currently has approximately 650 confirmed supporters actually selected to go to Tampa, Paul 300, Santorum 100, Gingrich 50, 150 truly uncommitted, and another 230 I haven't been able to pinpoint yet. Nearly 800 delegates have yet to be selected, the vast majority of whom will be elected at state conventions. These numbers include the automatic RNC delegates.
So, regarding Rule 40. This is a new rule, so of course there is no precedent of how it is enforced. However, the language of the rule clearly indicates that the submission of candidates for nomination by delegations will (indeed, must) take place before a roll call. The candidate must show "support" of a plurality of 5 delegations. It can be argued that if two candidates have equal support, they both share plurality. Delegates are bound only for the roll call itself (for however many ballots), and not for anything else. Submission of names for nomination is a separate process from an actual vote, and it is not clear yet how this will be done. If a signed affidavit affirming support is submitted from each delegation to the convention chair, for example, then indeed no "vote" need to have been taken, or ballots cast. So, Paul's Nevada supporters could help him in this effort, just as MS delegates could put in Romney's name (as I understand most elected at their state convention were Romney supporters).
As far as Colorado is concerned, I would be surprised if it hasn't been mentioned already that a deal was struck between Paul & Santorum backers at the state convention to split all the spots their slate could get, so nearly all of the unpledged delegates are Paul backers, and the rest are Santorum supporters, pledged or not, who have, by and large, agreed to "support" Paul to the extent Rule 40 is concerned. Beyond that, I can't say how all the Santorum folks will cast their ballots. Suffice it to say, CO counts towards Paul's five, although I don't expect that to be added to the article, since this information was not made officially available. We all know what happened in NV, and OK is sending two full delegations to Tampa, and the RNC Contests Committee will need to sort through which is legitimate.
If rules for a roll call and state bindings are upheld, then abstaining may come into play. Delegates are allowed to abstain, and there is plenty of precedent to support this claim. I think Mr. Bornholm has the numbers from the last convention if anyone is interested. Now of course, when few do so, no one tries to stop them, but if delegates abstain en masse, we get into somewhat uncharted waters. In theory, this is how it goes- each state delegation chair rises, in alphabetical order, to address the convention chair and inform the secretary of his/her state's tally. Unless overruled by the whole body, each state delegation is autonomous (with one exception), and how votes are reported is up to the discretion of the delegation chair, who may exercise that discretion to cast votes in place of abstentions or votes that violate bindings. If enough of a state's delegates disagree with the chair, they may vote to replace him (as Paul has already done in CO) and update the tally. Alternatively, delegation chairs may be circumvented if at least 6 states ask for a full roll to be taken, whether of a state or the entire convention, whereby delegates are individually polled, at which time they would then be able to declare their abstention. The only exception to this delegation autonomy (unless additional restrictions are added by the convention) is the now infamous unit rule, whereby a majority of a state's delegates (not their state party) vote to throw all their state's votes to a given candidate. This was a common practice years ago, such as when Lincoln's campaign manager, Judge David Davis, needed to secure all 22 votes from the IL delegation for the 1860 Republican convention, of which about a third (from northern IL) then supported Sen. William Seward, so he handled that by binding the state to vote as a unit. While not directly related to state party bindings, the modern prohibition of this practice does suggest an overall bias toward free agency for delegates, as far as the national party is concerned. Alternates cannot replace any delegates, abstaining or otherwise, without first gaining their credentials to vote. At a minimum, this would require those delegates to leave the floor, which they may not voluntarily do. Unless the RNC wants a riot to erupt on national TV, they will not be seating alternates to replace abstaining delegates. Not to mention the fact that if delegates leave with their credentials, new credentials would need to be printed up for alternates so they can vote. This is essentially what caused a ruckus at the AZ State Convention, where Romney delegates failed to properly check out, taking their credentials with them so alternates could not be seated and quorum was broken before business was completed. Now of course, all these parliamentary maneuvers would be pointless if one candidate has majority support, but if they do not, they may be used while both sides cajole uncommitted delegates to come their way.
If there is anyone still doubting the ability of convention delegates to unbind themselves, just consider the following scenarios: the presumptive nominee gets caught committing a felony, or, more likely, does something legal but objectionable (say, infidelity) that goes against the consciences of the delegates. What if, come August, polls indicate a 20+ point gap behind Obama? Would delegates still be unable to exercise their judgement to choose at that time the person they believe would be the best nominee for the party, lest they be found in violation of state "rules" or laws? Of course not. Whichever candidate sends more supporters to Tampa, and keeps them, will win the nomination. It really is as simple as that.
Finally, no one has offered information on what happens to TX delegates if the primary vote is not certified by June 7. Do TX state party rules allow for post-convention binding, and if so, by whom? 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 20:10, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
FYI, I support all four candidates. They are all 'winning', in this order: 1.Romney, 2.Santorum, 3.Gingrich, 4.Paul. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 15:35, 31 May 2012 (UTC)
Rather than respond to each of Guy1890's comments individually, I thought it better to provide a single comment here... Now before I respond to your statements, we need to first make something clear- just because I am currently using an IP account and am not yet an established editor within the Wiki community does not mean you are at liberty to lash out at the validity of what I am saying without providing your own reasoning or sources for your counterarguments beyond "it's been debunked elsewhere"- anyone can say that about anything. I ask you to please be more polite and thoughtful in any subsequent comments.
Before I get to talking about the individual states brought up, we all need to get this Rule 40(b) issue out of the way. This is a brand new rule never before enforced, so I don't think anyone can come forward with sources describing how it is to be interpreted, unless the RNC's office of legal counsel has been inquired and provided a response. All anyone can offer up is their personal opinion, and what I have to say about it is that it seems pretty logical to me that before a roll call can happen, there has to be a finite list of candidates to vote on that is established beforehand, and this is necessarily carried out by a separate process from roll call balloting. After off-the-record discussions with convention organizers, it would appear that delegation chairs will be responsible for filing paperwork with the convention chair sometime before the roll call that indicate who the delegates "support" (aka "would like to see voted on"), similar to my example of the use of affidavits above. If delegates can vote for someone not on that list, than it kind of negates the purpose of the rule, doesn't it? So, if Newt Gingrich doesn't make it, all those delegates supposedly bound to him must necessarily become unbound, or be forced to abstain. If the latter is true, then that would directly be a case of "bound" delegates abstaining (albeit out of necessity), and establish a framework right at the convention about which other bound delegates can claim the right to abstain. If the former is true, then it is absolutely relevant who those delegates actually support. This article suggests that most of the at-large delegates are Romney supporters, and from what I have heard, the district delegates are quite a jumble of Paul (mostly), Romney, Gingrich, and uncommitted people. This is assuming Gingrich & Santorum don't release their delegates, which they will probably do anyway by August. Santorum, fortunately for him, managed to get exactly 5 states with bound pluralities (AL,KS,MS,OK,TN), but if Romney's supporters in the MS delegation (or Paul's in OK) don't voice support for putting Santorum's name in for nomination, all his bound delegates would face the same fate as Gingrich's (unbound or forced abstention). Somehow I doubt that after paying all that money to be there, those delegates would not fiercely oppose moves to have their votes skipped- so they will wind up unbound if not released. Since the primaries are not over, we do not know with 100% certainty that Gingrich will not win over 3 more delegations. When the primary process concludes after NE in July, if everyone on here still believes that my interpretation of Rule 40 is incorrect (that is, everyone thinks "demonstrate support" = "I am bound to vote for"), then it would be be appropriate to move all of Gingrich's delegates into the unbound column and zero his total, even if they have not yet been formally released. Not doing so in such a circumstance would be tacit admission that my reading of the rule has merit, and that delegates can vote for anyone to be added to the list of candidates to be voted on for nomination or that there is no such thing as a bound delegate.
Since I covered Georgia, I will move on to Colorado. The decision has been made to tally unpledged delegates for certain candidates if their committments have been made known publicly, as can be seen in the delegate chart's line for MN, as long as sources have been provided for that. We are therefore not counting just bound delegates (otherwise OH, WY, etc. would be excluded) nor just pledged delegates (or ME, MN, etc would be excluded). I do not deny that the source I gave (a press releaase from the Paul campaign) is biased, or that everything written there is known widely enough to be written into the article. However, it is clear the Paul campaign believes it has at least 12 delegates from Colorado. People who took the RNC's word that Romney was the presumptive nominee in April when the numbers did not back that statement up because it was from a "reliable" source that supposedly knew what it was talking about, should have no problem with including numbers from a source that again, logically, should know what it's talking about with regards to this.
Regarding Wyoming, you write "Paul consistently came in third in support...and that's where Paul stands in the final WY delegate count - third", but I wasn't talking about what 'order' they came in. The reason some people suggest the so-called "delegate strategy" is not democratic is b/c percentages of the popular vote do not necessarily line up with percentages of delegates. By your logic, if in a caucus (so not winner-take-all) Candidate A got 51% of the vote and Candidate B got 49%, it is ok if A gets 99/100 delegates and B gets 1. Same order, no? That is just as "fair" as when B winds up with the 99 delegates. Paul got 21% of the straw vote. He did not get 21% of the delegates. I never used the word "steal" when referring to what Romney accomplished in WY or ND, so don't quote that like I did. I would only say that if rules were broken in the process, but now that you mention it, there is evidence of (as the lead organizer for Santorum's campaign put it) a " railroad job" in North Dakota, including mikes being cut-off and music being blasted to push delegates out of the convention hall when they tried to motion to change things. I'm sure the ND delegation are now saying they'll respect the caucus straw vote b/c they don't want that stuff brought to light during a contests challenge in Tampa (which is still possible), but there's certainly nothing to hold them to that, especially if Santorum & Gingrich can't be voted for.
Finally to your comment Jack, I was talking about the cumulative popular vote, not any particular state. As a history fan myself, I enjoyed learning what the word 'Bolshevik' means among the other things and can definitely see your point about the two convention strategies. Time will tell how the results will compare. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 06:21, 2 June 2012 (UTC)
and
'If Newt releases the delegates and tells us to get behind Romney, I suspect then there will be overwhelming willingness to get behind him,' Passantino said."
(In reply to Guy1890; did not want to indent yet again) Santorum may or may not release his delegates- sources currently indicate that he actually will not. As for Gingrich's in Georgia, if this were 2008, then yes he would have to release his delegates if he wants them to vote for Romney. It would appear that the delegates quoted have not given Rule 40 much thought, and are making the assumption that his name will be presented by enough delegations to actually be available to be voted for.
I did not claim to say what delegates could definitively do or not do with regards to abstention. I can only offer (as can you) an opinion that is based on historical & legal precedent, a particular reading of relevant rules, and my sense of personal dynamics between relevant parties.
I'm not sure what your definition of "fully vetted" is, but I see nothing of the sort in those CO or OK pages. All I saw was some of your comments on the talk pages there. At least the OK article describes some of the events of their convention, although I disagree with the characterization that it was a "rump" convention- it was a legal continuation of a convention never properly adjourned, with the necessary quorum of at least 100 delegates. As I pointed out earlier, it is absolutely relevant which delegation gets seated if Gingrich & Santorum delegates become unbound. OH's delegation is morally committed to certain candidates, but that does not make them bound. As you can read here, there was a meeting for all OH delegates on June 1. I was not privy to discussions there & don't know what was discussed, but if those delegates are as bound as you say, then how would they even entertain the idea of "hav[ing] the delegates back Romney if his campaign reaches an agreement with the former senator from Pennsylvania." The unit rule is not in effect, and Santorum looks like he wants to keep his delegates. Therefore, the only way that scenario could play out is if the delegates are not actually bound. You are also incorrect about WY- none of their delegates are bound. MN's delegation is pledged, but not bound in the slightest, morally or legally. I know what the ND delegates said & I offered a reason why they said that & what to expect if they can't cast ballots for Santorum or Gingrich. It sounds like I might know more about what unfolded there than you do. I also watched the NV convention live. I know what happened there, and am not questioning the current bound allocation. I was just asking how firm it was, since the state party already chose to amend it once. But it does look like you got ME right. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 07:01, 4 June 2012 (UTC)
Maybe this is a few weeks premature, but I think it is time to rewrite the May section, among other things with the convention wins of Paul both in unbound as in bound states.
Paul on the ballot
He needs five states with plurality to be on the ballot at all. Am I reading the numbes right by saying that he right now has:
And it is still possible for him to get:
In other words, it looks like a hard way to get three more states. Then there is of course The Faithless Delegate Strategy where some of Pauls delegates that are bound to Romney or Santorum are released. But since the plurality has to be shown before the roll call the only way to do so would be to challenge the whole bound thing in court under 42 USC § 1971(b). It will hardly happen, since Paul dont want to rock the boat so much he destroy achievements his followers have gained this cycle toward their longterm goals for a simple chance of loosing a vote to Romney. But what states would Paul have in play if it happened? As far as I can see it must be:
States who have not completed their state conventions yet & have enough unelected delegates to tip a "faithless" plurality:
Are there any report form reliable sources that Paul have a plurality of candidates in more states with bound delegates?
Santorum on the ballot
Santorum have right now 6 states, so he could be on the ballot. If he releases his delegates he can stay off it, and that he might not want to do since it could release Paul delegates. But in North Dakota the delegation are only bound by its own statement that it will decided according to its strawpoll at a delegation meeting prior to the National Convention. The delegation has a majority of Romney supporters. In Mississippi Santorum only haves one delegate plurality, that is without the 3 unbound RNC delegates. If they pledge to Romney, Santorum could "loose" the plurality in that state. Witch would mean that he wouldnt be able to show plurality in five states and wouldnt be able to go on the ballot.
Romney the only name on the ballot
Santorums delegates would of course be unbound to vote at the roll call just as Gingrich delegates is. But before the roll call they couldnt be used to show plurality for another candidate. If Paul would come in short too the only name on the ballot would be Romney. So you can vote for Romney or abstain. It would show a more unified front than Santorum getting a lot of disgruntel Paul votes.
Jack Bornholm ( talk) 05:14, 6 June 2012 (UTC)
Another WP page ("Results" TALK page) a reader wants Bachmann and Huntsman both credited with two delegates. If you do a Google-search you can find the Green Paper count [3] with two for Huntsman and one for Bachmann, (unlike our Article). I'll look again. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 01:49, 12 June 2012 (UTC)
It’s really too bad and sad that the GOP is so behind in writing delegate count status. Or is that good? It teaches that it is not over “until the Fat Lady sings” or as I say, “until you see it live at Republican National Convention in August”. RNC/GOP officials say they wait for state input, but apparently a slow state (or confused state like Louisiana) can hold up their report. Here is their latest count, dated April 6, 2012: Delegates confirmed=1034; Romney(573); Santorum(202); Gingrich(132); and lastly, Paul(26), which is to say Romney has twenty times the Paul-delegates.
http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/ — FYI, Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 00:41, 14 June 2012 (UTC)
They have an allocation of 25 delegates, and they are all 'uncommitted'. So Romney has none of them — Santorum has none of them. They pride themselves in being first to vote to start the tide of momentum, in their view, but do not assign allegiance until every other state delegation has spoken. And our maps at the bottom of our article are great, showing a sea of green counties (for Santorum), one lonely country/square (for Romney), and 15 square/counties where the count, apparently, is 'unknown'. Very interesting. It will be interesting to see if they swing over to Romney due to his momentum, the support/endorsement to Romney by the Republican National Committee, the public support of Romney, and the lack of visibility for Santorum. What do you think? Just asking, Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:27, 15 June 2012 (UTC)
What do I think? I suspect that information is accurate, and Paul will have most of the delegation. -- Born2cycle ( talk) 07:59, 16 June 2012 (UTC)
After a two-day tug-of-war marked by bouts of angry shouting, Iowa Republicans elected 25 delegates to send to the national convention in Florida in late August.
By far, the majority will be Paul backers, ...
Seeing as he has 21 of 25 delegates Iowa needs to be colored yellow for the Delegate plurality map. It's more of a majority then Minnesota was. Raymond SabbJr ( talk) 03:45, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
Done Thanks to WP editor Wipkipkedia for updating the delegate map. Iowa now sports the Ron Paul color, and that gives him plurality in three states, IA, MN, and Maine [ME]. With two more, he would have the requisite five state delegations to be on the first ballot. Even without that, I believe he will be asked to speak. The Republican National Convention is in Tampa Bay, Florida, for four days and will have many speakers each day. Can you even imagine GOP leaders throwing away the perceived excitement to hear Ron Paul speak and make the points his supporters (and other Conservatives) want to hear? It is not even a remote possibility "in my mind". As you know from our external link
[7] the convention in Tampa Bay, Florida, is on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, August 27-30. I'll be watching every moment, before, during, and after all the speeches, voting, PR, and social activities.
Charles Edwin
Shipp (
talk)
11:29, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
Another thing to mention; The soft count of Delegates for Ron Paul says 165 on the page chart but still says 143 under the stat box. If the stat box is using Soft count Delegate numbers then it should have Paul with 165 delegates there as well. Raymond SabbJr ( talk) 14:48, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
Our TABLE lists unallocated delegates from Iowa(4), New Hampshire(2), Colorado(14), Minnesota(2), Wyoming(1), Illinois(12), Pennsylvania(32), Louisiana(28), Indiana(16), West Virginia(4), Texas(7), Nebraska(32), Montana(23), and Utah voting on June 26 to send {40 delegates} to convention August 27, a total of 214 delegate positions to be decided.
What are the other best sources for timing, activity, and status? Comments? Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 10:57, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
UTAH holds the last primary in the nation one week from today. There are 40 delegates. Here is the text from Green Papers: "Tuesday 26 June 2012: All 40 of Utah's delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide in today's Presidential Primary. [Utah Republican Party Bylaws 7.0.B]" [9] Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:17, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Politifact recently checked out Ron Paul's claim of 200 delegates, and they could not find sufficient evidence. See http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2012/jun/15/ron-paul/ron-paul-touts-nearly-200-delegates-bound-his-cand/ . Mr. Anon 515 01:03, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
The Associated press has never been a reliable source for delegate counts. I'm disappointed with politifacts for using them instead of something reliable like green paper. Raymond SabbJr ( talk) 04:00, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Interestingly, Gingrich still leads Paul by a very slim margin: Gingrich 144; Paul 141 — (CNN count, see our 'External link' section.) Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 12:24, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Now, whether Paul's claim is itself accurate, that's a separate issue, and can be covered as well, as long as sources like PolitiFact are cited. -- Born2cycle ( talk) 20:34, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
For those of you WATCHing Talk:Ron_Paul_presidential_campaign,_2012 you have seen a lawsuit filed in CA: ... ... ... (Some people are suing GOP to announce that anyone can win [or something] maybe Paul-people.) ... ... ... “...The plaintiffs are asking the court to order the RNC to inform delegates they can vote for the nominee of their choice, to reinstate delegates who lost their seats at the convention because they refused to sign loyalty affidavits and to recount ballots by hand or hold another convention in areas where the sanctity of the ballots are untrustworthy.” ... “Some sources report that Gilbert & Marlowe represent presidential hopeful Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, but the attorney’s office would not confirm with WND whether it has represented Paul previously nor whether the congressman has any connection to the current lawsuit.” [http://www.wnd.com/2012/06/gop-delegates-sue-to-be-free-from-romney/] Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 15:36, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Minor Comments: (1) The reason I say it is going nowhere is: who will believe a federal court should tell a private organization what they can and cannot do? It is up to each state; and (2) reason I say Romney benefits is because it keeps another person in the arena of ideas, against Obama. However, (3) RNC would rather focus on Obama/Economy, and any distraction favors Obama. (I'm just thinking ahead to how the Article is written in the fall.) These are just refinements on persuasions in the Article. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:45, 21 June 2012 (UTC)
Charles, the lawsuit appears to center around things that are not related directly to the "private organization" aspect of all this. It appears they are asking for any affadavits to be voided, and since the GOP uses taxpayer funded primaries in some cases, they need to follow state and federal voting laws. The real problem here is that these so-called private organizations are so entrenched in the election process that they aren't really 'private' anymore (maybe semi-private?), and to avoid fraud and manipulation of the process, there are laws in place for protecting voters' rights. Personally, I think that political parties need to stand on their own outside of a state-sponsored process, where primaries are paid for by the parties themselves and don't get run by the state election officials. As it stands, we have a system that vigorously protects the two major parties and excludes potential competition. Our founders didn't put parties in the constitution, but they did put freedom of association. We don't subsidize meetings of the local chess club with taxpayer dollars (nor should we), so why should we do that with political parties? I do sort of agree with your comment above that having another voice against Obama is a useful thing for Republicans or Romney, and I think your comment about what the RNC wants presupposes the idea that the National GOP actually wants to win. It may seem odd, but there are times when I strongly question whether the National GOP is really interested in winning or whether they just like the fundraising and theoretically being an opposition voice. When you run Bob Dole in 1988, it seems ok, but when you push him on voters in 1996, it seems forced and more like an act. Romney is on the ticket now because he played ball to let another old codger take the lead back in 2008, and this is his reward, but a Pyrrhic victory for Romney in gaining the nomination now is not going to energize voters to change their votes. The seeming fact that the party doesn't realize this either shows they are very self-deluded, or they simply don't care. As long as the political equivalent of the iPhone doesn't come along, the two parties don't have much of an incentive to really change their ways. -- Avanu ( talk) 12:19, 22 June 2012 (UTC)
I removed a few entries that are already linked in the article. -- Mollskman ( talk) 03:21, 9 July 2012 (UTC)
It is detailed but interesting reading. Read the first few pages of "Rules of the Republican Party" [10] — This is one of our 'External references' and includes, for example: "At each national convention, the roll shall be called and the delegates from each state shall report, through the chairman of the delegation, the names of the elected national committee members whose election shall be ratified by the national convention if otherwise in accordance with these rules." Etc. — And, (b) on page 2: "The Republican National Committee shall have the power to declare vacant the seat of any member who refuses to support the Republican nominee for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States." Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 06:11, 5 July 2012 (UTC)
Forbid? The following sentence is now in the article: "The rules of the Party forbid any state from binding its delegates to any candidate." But I search the url/ref (2008/2012 RNC rules) for the word 'forbid' and it is not in the rules. On the other hand, the word, 'bind' (includes 'binding') occurs 23 times. The sections to read are 13-17, specifically saying delegates can be bound; the key is that the state Republican party decides (for each respective state or providence) and not the national Republican party! The RNC rules are referenced at the bottom of our 'External references' and includes this from section 13: "(c) Any state Republican Party may set the date for any primary, caucus, convention, or meeting for the purpose of voting for a presidential candidate and/or electing, selecting, allocating, or binding delegates to the national convention subject to the scheduling provisions in Rule No. 15." Rule 15 talks about the state Republican parties deciding about their delegates, for example: on page 21 "(7) Any process authorized or implemented by a state Republican Party for selecting delegates and alternate delegates or for binding the presidential preference of such delegates may use every means practicable, in the sole discretion of the state Republican Party, to encourage active military personnel the opportunity to exercise their right to vote." Yes, state Republican parties can 'bind' their delegates/alternates. — Perhaps the contributing editor was referring to the 'not' Ron Paul lawsuit. — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 22:21, 8 July 2012 (UTC)
In three days, all citizens of the 50 states and five territories will have voted. It will still remain to finalize state Republican party delegations. What will happen with remaining states? (in our Table). Start preparing some text for July. — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 04:05, 24 June 2012 (UTC)
A new section have been added to this article. Could the one that have had all the work with creating this graf maybe explain what it is about in the section. Chances? Is is about opinionpolls or something else? And relative to what? And in what way are Jeb Bush a part of it at all! Also it is very important to add one or two references, right now it is actually just some lines that are not validated by any reliable source. And I must confess I dont understand what the lines are about in the first case. I dont want simply to erase it before understanding the idea behind so I am looking forward to hear more in the near future. Jack Bornholm ( talk) 19:35, 30 June 2012 (UTC)
The description of the file on commons are: "A chart based on tracking the wisdom of crowds throughout the Republican Nominee 2012 campaign" But it doesnt say what university or researcher that have done the calculations, neither what crowd we are talking about, is it the general public, all registered republican voters, GOP elected leaders or something else? Are we talking about support for the candidate or is what the crowd predict will happen? Jack Bornholm ( talk) 19:49, 30 June 2012 (UTC)
Our first excellent map is entitled/called: "First place finishes by plurality of delegates" and can now list Utah for Romney(red). On the other hand, Montana, Nebraska, and Louisiana can remain gray. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 22:36, 1 July 2012 (UTC)
Please change the numbers and show that this candidate has won 4 states. -div — Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.119.220.249 ( talk) 05:20, 3 July 2012 (UTC) another source: http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/11595-louisiana-gop-convention-splits-ron-paul-wins-majority-convention
For those curious, everything we knew about the situation in Louisiana when it happened was summed up here. As far as I know, nothing has changed since then. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 08:42, 4 July 2012 (UTC)
For those that are watching Ron Paul activity, FYI:
2012_Republican_National_Convention is very interesting:
"By June 29, this requirement was met by only three candidates, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul. Ron Paul has a majority of delegates in seven states: Colorado, Nevada, Massachusetts, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, and Louisana. Because RNC rules only specify that a potential nomination candidate only win a plurality in five states, and not specifically in five unbound states, Paul has secured a place on the nomination ballot as well as a speaking spot at the 2012 Republican National Convention. Newt Gingrich has won two states, with four states (Montana, Nebraska, Utah, and Louisiana) having either unpledged, disputed, or unallocated delegates.
[1]
[2]
[close-quote] Is this true? Just asking,
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
23:22, 12 July 2012 (UTC)
PS: Watch Hannity! — Preceding unsigned comment added by 99.74.34.52 ( talk) 04:32, 16 July 2012 (UTC)
From Green Papers for Nebraska: [11] [Note the wording, terms, and state rules!]
“Saturday 14 July 2012: The Nebraska State Republican Convention convenes. Congressional District Caucuses made up of the State Convention delegates from each of Nebraska's 3 congressional districts choose the 9 district National Convention delegates (3 per congressional district). The State Convention as a whole selects 23 (10 base at-large plus 13 bonus) at-large delegates to the Republican National Convention.
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of Nebraska's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position. [In each year when a President of the United States is to be elected, the State Convention shall elect a National Committeeman and a National Committeewoman to take office at the close of the succeeding National Convention. - NEBRASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY CONSTITUTION, Article IV Section 1, As adopted on 07/31/2010]
Reference: CONSTITUTION THE REPUBLICAN PARTY OF NEBRASKA as amended 7/31/2010, Section 3.”
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Of course, other states have their own state Republican Party rules. For outsiders, some of the state rules might be unfamiliar. However, members of the respective state Republican parties come to learn the rules and procedures. They are the people that count!
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
01:28, 12 July 2012 (UTC)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
With uncertainty in some of the state delegations it will be very interesting in Nebraska if Ron Paul garners delegate votes. He should.
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
03:09, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
Seems to have actually gone to Ron Paul; it was the last county to report, and earlier had only one vote in (for Mitt Romney). Could someone edit the map?
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=48&f=0&off=0&elect=2 — Preceding unsigned comment added by 174.59.30.216 ( talk) 00:26, 25 June 2012 (UTC)
Done — See Article history.
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
09:59, 2 July 2012 (UTC)
FYI: Paulville,_Texas#See_also — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:00, 17 July 2012 (UTC)
How does one edit the infobox from January 3, 2012 to present over to January 3 to June 26, 2012? GoodDay ( talk) 22:31, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
So what did we learn, in general? Viz: You can go to any WP talk page, change 'talk' to 'template' in the URL and hit 'enter'. TNKS, Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:22, 16 July 2012 (UTC)
There is an interesting interactive graphic of current interest from the olde gray lady, The New York Times, [12] listing seven VP possibilities (not including Condi Rice). See the more complete field at our own Republican_Party_vice_presidential_candidates,_2012 — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:49, 16 July 2012 (UTC)
Firstly, RNC rules do not specify that a candidate must have five bound states before nomination, only that they have five states. I understand that Lousianna doesn't count right now, because a few Romney supporters who did not turn their seats around nominated a separate slate from the one nominated by a majority of LA delegates. But rules do not specify anything about a candidate's five states being bound. This means that Nevada and Massachusetts should not count as Romney states, just because they are bound to Romney on the first round of voting. One more thing: WHY is MA counted for Romney??? They were *un-seated* because they wouldn't sign the affidavits! So the GOP can oust delegates for not supporting Romney, but when they want to count up states for nomination requirements, Romney still gets it? Makes a lot of sense.
There are a lot of people who actually think that Paul has only three states, that Romney really did win 42 state pluralities, and that Paul has officially conceded. This page needs to be fixed big time. People know that NBC and FOX lie. People trust Wikipedia. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Gotwake88 ( talk • contribs) 23:46, 12 July 2012 (UTC)
And since the Authoritative Green Papers posted that, the Massachusets GOP has disqualified seventeen of those delegates. So Romney is counted as having won a plurality of delegates in a state where all ten delegates who weren't un-seated support him. That is way better than a plurality. He won support from the whole delegation! Why don't they just un-seat all non-Romney delegates prior to the convention at a rules committee, and claim that he has unanimous support from the Republican Party? It would be very consistent with the party's behavior this year... — Preceding unsigned comment added by Gotwake88 ( talk • contribs) 01:58, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
Momentum is everything! Representative Ron Paul won his three states in the early races. Once Romney started rolling he started dominating and Gingrich and Santorum dropped out. Paul stays in but is not in the news. Romney is. State delegations want to be counted as supporting the winner and we can look at the numbers: Romney is leading Paul 10 to 1. Our 'external references' list the current standings: CNN has Romney(1,544) to Paul(154); USA Today has Romney(1522) to Paul(158); WSJ has Romney(1522) to Paul(158); and the more authoritative Green Papers has Romney(1,489) to Paul(154). Mitt Romney has 295 more delegates than he needs to win on First Ballot, and will have more than that as other state delegations pile on. As for improvements in our Article, suggestions and changes are welcome but sourcing may be required. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 03:01, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
Dear Gotwake88 would you be able to post some reference to the development in MA? Even though it is clear that the delegates are bound to vote for Romney, and that also means that he can show a plurality in that state even if not a single national delegate from the state likes him, the whole MA mixup would still be interesting to add to the article. Many state parties bind their delegates to a primary result not to disfranchice the electorate. MA is a good example of the weakness of the dual system, where delegates are elected in a caucus process but bound to vote according to the result of a primary, in contrast to the direct election system or the slate system. In MA the republican base in the electorate clearly favored Romney (not surprising since he was governor of that state) and then those republican forgot all about the election and went on with their life and work. The active party loyals, or at least a very large group, in MA on the other is Liberitarians and favored Paul. That power is given to the most active party members is the strenght of the caucus system, but that can disfranchise and eventually destroy a party if a small avantgard moves away from the populace. To prevent this the primary was invented. So what happened in MA is very insteresting on many levels and good references is in high demand, so please make any of reliable ones avaible if you know them. Jack Bornholm ( talk) 08:33, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
The US_Constitution and other founding documents are what sets USA apart. Rush Limbaugh says that the people are no greater, but these documents made the difference. Founding Fathers worked very hard to guard against people who want to Hope and fundamentally Change America as we know it. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 15:21, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
More than ‘soapbox’, I agree with the implied thinking here: how this is handled applies to this Republican race, the presidential election against Obama, (and hence, this Article). You can either work within the rules, (rules are changed for the next time), or you can go outside the rules. Ron Paul is not going to do like Ross Perot and give a minority victory to Bill Clinton. Paul wants to change how the RNC runs the US Republican Party. I also agree with others that we can write the history at convention time (third day). Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 18:26, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
Many sources, such as ABC and MSNBC show Paul currently with 4 states, and Nebraska as his fifth. You may have a different interpretation of the rules, but that is original research, and has to be backed by reliable secondary sources. Note that many media outlets are suddenly changing their stances on Louisiana from being Romney to being Ron Paul. I request that we remain neutral on that state, however. Since most media in the US is for-profit, many news organizations will prefer to choose the outcome that leads to the best headline. Which do you think sounds better, "Ron Paul can't win 5 states but he's going for Nebraska anyway" or "Ron Paul's last chance! If he wins Nebraska, he goes to the convention!"? Mr. Anon 515 17:52, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
The bottom line is no one here knows how RNC Rule 40(b) (the source of that 5-state threshold) will be interpreted. It's a new rule never before enforced. Jack believes that Paul must have a plurality in 5 delegations where his supporters are unbound and/or bound to him. As I wrote about extensively here (with a list of some states summarized here), I differ from that view, in that I believe that state bindings apply only to the roll call vote, and not any other motion or petition, including those to put up a candidate for nomination. Some others mistakenly believe that we are talking about a ~20-year old rule that establishes a similar threshold for giving prime-time speeches. Until we can source the RNC's exact interpretation of this rule, this is still an open matter, because Paul supporters hold pluralities in more than 5 states, long before NE came around. These states include CO, IA, ME, MN, NV, and VA. Other states in play (waiting on the decisions of uncommitted's, contests challenges, etc.) include AK, GA, LA, MA, OK, OR, and TX. There could be others that are flying even under my radar.
A couple other comments: It is my expectation that however the convention implements that rule, Paul will get is "15 minutes of fame." Unless Romney's campaign implodes these next few weeks (i.e. some brave prosecutor charges him over the Bain mess), the party regulars who hold many of the delegates seats bound to him will listen to him, so it will effectively be 'his' convention. So if the Paul-Romney "personal relationship" means anything at all, he will give Paul the opportunity to give his speech & have some presence, however small, on the platform. Really, it's the least he could do, after Paul had many opportunties to attack him during the debates & ads and passed (focusing his fire on Gingrich & Santorum). Knowing Paul, he is not likely to stick to any script. I could see him accepting the draft of some pro-Romney speech from Reince Priebus, fingers crossed behind his back. Then as he strolls up to the podium, he whips out his own speech from behind his suit :p
Second, it seems the extra media attention didn't do the Paul supporters in NE any favors- it motivated the Governor there to marshal his troops & make sure people stuck to the "official Romney" slate, all to avoid being embarrassed in "his" state. I'll take a pass on the conspiracy that the media frenzy was planned from on high (i.e. make Paul look bad given his likely minority of state delegates). I think it's more plausible that some staffer who's a political junkie was hoping to inject some interest in the very last state contest, one that is rather lonely on the calendar, and other media outlets picked up on it. Here's a recap from the Daily Paul if anyone is interested. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 11:57, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
Only two delegates assigned to Paul. Guess Paul will have to appeal to whether Colorado or Nevada can be counted, as those are the only other states where he has even a possible plurality. Mr. Anon 515 19:50, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
Has the candidate himself commented on this (whether through email to his supporters or in an official press release)? If so, that might be useful. I imagine that if he officially drops out, endorses Romney, or endorses Gary Johnson, it would have a big impact towards his supporters and his message (positive or negative, it's unknown). Mr. Anon 515 23:04, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
To examine accurate/current delegate counts, our listed external link is good: [14] "Latest Green Papers delegate count" where you can investigate the latest developments, such as most Nevada delegates cheering for Ron Paul, but bound by the NV primary: (Nevada Republican Party rules, for the first, and only, vote at convention.) — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 04:33, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
If you look at Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Overview_of_results you will see that Montana goes for Romney and Louisiana goes for Rick Santorum. I don't think either will go for Ron Paul. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:13, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
Interesting insights from one of our external links, 2012 Election Central: "Following the primary battle and now leading up to the convention in Tampa, it appears the GOP is working hard to avoid alienating Ron Paul and his supporters any further from the party. A new report out in the last couple days explains how the GOP is working to make sure Paul, and his supporters, are fully included and represented in August." — Although interesting, this information would be better in the campaign article: 2012_Republican_National_Convention — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 22:51, 24 July 2012 (UTC)
When will we see the winner of Louisiana and Montana's delegations? J390 ( talk) 01:44, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
I brought up something similar to this before here, but a decision wasn't really reached at the time. I still advocate for a different color for those states (minus LA, plus Montana), since it doesn't make sense to me to award plurality to a state where there are still delegates that have yet to declare their intentions. It would be like arbitrarily stopping the voting in FL at noon on election day and declaring the Romney had the most votes and thus the state, despite there being more registered voters who had not yet cast their ballots than voters who had voted for Romney up to that point. These are states where the delegates are known, but all their votes (even with consideration of state bindings for the roll call) are not. LA can remain gray, since both its delegates and plurality are up in the air.
While the MT delegation is officially uncommitted, there is (as many of you suspected from the lack of Paul supporters flocking to announce it here) little to no Paul support to be found among them. This article gives an accurate, albeit one-sided, view of the proceedings. With 47% of the state delegates, the Paul campaign came very close to walking away with the delegation. Instead, they seem to have been shut out (they may have gotten 1 alternate in).
Ben Swann, meanwhile, seems to have had discussions with members of the RNC Rules Committee, which has apparently confirmed information that I've been told by convention organizers regarding Rule 40. The consequence of that being that Paul has at least 6 states whose delegates would support putting his name in for nomination, and would guarantee him the 15-minute speech whether Romney wants to give it to him or not. Now I admit Swann may not be 100% reliable, as the sources he cites are remaining anonymous, and he has, well, gotten "caught up" by the Paul 'delegate strategy' more than perhaps any other single reporter. However, this is the first instance I've seen of a reporter actually claiming to have asked and referenced the people who would actually provide final clarification on this matter- the Rules Committee. So if we are to use the opposing interpretation of Rule 40 that we've been running with in this article and here, is there not now an impetus to more firmly source that?
To more succinctly answer your question, Charles, we will determine a winner for LA when the Convention Committee on Credentials publishes its report for the delegates to vote on, which will occur the week before the Convention opens. Within the context of the primary season, there will technically never be a winner for MT, because that delegation remains officially unpledged up until the roll call. The same appears to be the case for CO & PA (where there are unpledged pluralities). LA, unlike MT, may be retroactively filled in, because the Credentials Committee will be deciding which delegation was properly elected at that time, that is, within the window of the primary season.
The appeals process within the RNC is a little more complicated than that- it doesn't go straight to Credentials. First, the RNC Committee on Contests (composed of 9 members) is required to promptly hear the case (as it also will for MA & OK), and view written presentations from both sides before publishing its report. It's decision may be appealed to the full Republican National Committee (168 members- 3 from each state & territory), which would render a decision. Any decision by the National Committee may then be appealed to the Credentials Committee (~110 members- 2 from each state & territory excluding those of the state in question), which would incorporate its decision in the Credentials Committee report to the national convention as a whole. The National Convention offers the ultimate say on the matter, and it may do so by offering amendments to the Credentials Report (that would be in order if proposed by majorities of at least 6 delegations, and affecting no more than 1 delegation at a time), before passing the amendment(s) & the report by majority vote. An amended credentials report would require a roll call to pass. Since I have my doubts that the Convention would bother to take up this time-consuming matter as a whole before all those TV cameras, I believe we will be able to use the Credentials report for the purposes of declaring a winner for LA in this article, as it will almost certainly be appealed up to that point. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 08:20, 28 July 2012 (UTC)
This seems to put doubt on Ben Swann's claim that the RNC has acknowledged any further pluralities by the Paul campaign. The fact that he is filing suit over the contested delegates in Louisiana means that the RNC is refusing to consider those in favor of Paul at the moment. Another interesting piece of information is the fact that Paul appears to be going after Oregon and Massachusett's delegates. If the contested delegates in question are enough to shift the plurality, we may need to move these states into the "disputed" area as well. Mr. Anon 515 16:28, 28 July 2012 (UTC)
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Happy Memorial_day greetings. Remember ancestors in the 1940_census and the men and women who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces.
Citizens of the Lone Star State of Texas vote tomorrow, Tuesday: Texas_Republican_primary,_2012. I'm interested in how Ron Paul does in his own state. Will Gingrich and Santorum have equal votes with Ron Paul? And will Romney win the majority since he has the momentum? We'll see shortly. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:48, 28 May 2012 (UTC)
I hope everyone here bears in mind that even if Romney takes all 152 delegates tonight, he would still be at least 20 votes (by Wiki's current estimate) shy of clinching. The media, however, seems poised to go gangbusters with the "Romney clinches" headlines, since they're all using the incorrect AP count, which has been doing everyone but perhaps the Romney camp a great disservice. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 22:58, 29 May 2012 (UTC)
Per the Green Papers "The Texas Republican State Convention is set for Thursday 7 June...This leaves only a week and a half between the primary and delegate election-- it is unlikely that the vote could be certified in time. The party may need to decouple the selection of National Convention delegates from the primary election." Anybody know if this is likely to happen? Maybe it depends on how close the results are? 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 23:11, 29 May 2012 (UTC)
Reports were that Romney needed 89 delegates in the Texas win to "clinch" the Nomination; Ron Paul get 11 and Romney got 93, (over by 4 delegates). See the Texas Green papers and also the Wikipedia page, already with these results. Certification won't change his 76% popular vote in TX, (or whatever it ends up.) Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 01:50, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
Just to get a few point straight.
Paul cant show a plurality in Nevada, because his supporters there is bound to Romney just as they are in Massachusetts. This subject have been discussed in lenght so see the many sections now archived. In Colorado Romney can actually show a plurality. So right now Paul can show a plurality in Minnesota and Maine. It is most likely (taken by unofficial numbers from county conventions and caucuses) that Paul will be able to show a plurality in Washington State and Louisana when this week is over. I think this cycle have taught us to never guess what will happen in Missouri
. Later on Iowas will properly go Pauls way and then he will have five states.
And about the delegatecount - Remember that most softcount you see around the web is projected, the soft count in this article is unprojected. That means it is made up of delegates that have to vote for a candidate like it or not and (finalized and elected) delegates that are strong supporters of a candidate. How big a chance is it that such a softcount will change? The hardcount is as always only the delegates that have to vote for a candidate even if they really dont want to. Kept out of this count is the RNC delegates that are not a part of the election process but will be voting delegates by virtue of their position in the party. They are kept out because even if they are strong supporters of a candidate the have considerations that lies beyond this primary process.
So has Romney secured his majority?
That said it would be extremly unlikely that Romney will not have a hardcount majority by this time next week. Jack Bornholm ( talk) 08:24, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
I see there are a few points that need to be addressed. Now, before I attempt to do so, I'd like to offer my thanks to Mr. Bornholm for his seemingly tireless attention to all these primary-related pages. You are a longtime steward of this article, so I am confident that all the delegate numbers you have posted above are accurate as much as they can be, given their respective parameters & what is known publicly. They also affirm my longstanding position that Romney did not clinch the nomination yesterday, but will likely do so, per official counts, after the June 5 California primary. However, this is still May, not June, so any language in the article that claims that Romney has "won" the primary should be stricken until we know it to be true, as I would hate the idea that any prospective voters in CA, etc. did not show up based on false information written here, more than have already decided not to vote anyway. Obama or anyone else can shout until they turn blue that Romney has clinched, but the facts are the facts, and the reality is that as of today, it simply isn't true, and Obama's opinion is irrelevant, unless he has information not available publicly that he would like to share with us on this matter.
Now, as for convention procedure. I understand that many of these issues have been raised in prior posts and can be found in archives. However, it seems that some of the conclusions drawn from those discussions are incorrect, so I feel compelled to post more information here. I agree that this article must stick to official counts, hard or otherwise, so some of the following information would be better suited in an article on the convention, rather than the primaries. That said, it is important that we are all on the same page on these issues.
Bear with me a moment and ignore state-party imposed bindings. I think it is evident that if a majority of the delegates on the floor in Tampa are supporters of either Paul or Romney, their candidate will be nominated, and they will likely antagonize the other side in the process. When assembled collectively, RNC delegates are the Republican Party, acting as its supreme legislative body. It can override any and all state party rules or laws (see here), and, as a private party, is largely insulated from government action (much like free speech rights may be more restrictive in private schools). The more tricky scenarios arise when no candidate has majority support on the floor (again, ignoring bindings). This is when issues like Rules 32, 38, 40(b), abstentions & alternates, etc. come into play. As an aside, I will note that Romney currently has approximately 650 confirmed supporters actually selected to go to Tampa, Paul 300, Santorum 100, Gingrich 50, 150 truly uncommitted, and another 230 I haven't been able to pinpoint yet. Nearly 800 delegates have yet to be selected, the vast majority of whom will be elected at state conventions. These numbers include the automatic RNC delegates.
So, regarding Rule 40. This is a new rule, so of course there is no precedent of how it is enforced. However, the language of the rule clearly indicates that the submission of candidates for nomination by delegations will (indeed, must) take place before a roll call. The candidate must show "support" of a plurality of 5 delegations. It can be argued that if two candidates have equal support, they both share plurality. Delegates are bound only for the roll call itself (for however many ballots), and not for anything else. Submission of names for nomination is a separate process from an actual vote, and it is not clear yet how this will be done. If a signed affidavit affirming support is submitted from each delegation to the convention chair, for example, then indeed no "vote" need to have been taken, or ballots cast. So, Paul's Nevada supporters could help him in this effort, just as MS delegates could put in Romney's name (as I understand most elected at their state convention were Romney supporters).
As far as Colorado is concerned, I would be surprised if it hasn't been mentioned already that a deal was struck between Paul & Santorum backers at the state convention to split all the spots their slate could get, so nearly all of the unpledged delegates are Paul backers, and the rest are Santorum supporters, pledged or not, who have, by and large, agreed to "support" Paul to the extent Rule 40 is concerned. Beyond that, I can't say how all the Santorum folks will cast their ballots. Suffice it to say, CO counts towards Paul's five, although I don't expect that to be added to the article, since this information was not made officially available. We all know what happened in NV, and OK is sending two full delegations to Tampa, and the RNC Contests Committee will need to sort through which is legitimate.
If rules for a roll call and state bindings are upheld, then abstaining may come into play. Delegates are allowed to abstain, and there is plenty of precedent to support this claim. I think Mr. Bornholm has the numbers from the last convention if anyone is interested. Now of course, when few do so, no one tries to stop them, but if delegates abstain en masse, we get into somewhat uncharted waters. In theory, this is how it goes- each state delegation chair rises, in alphabetical order, to address the convention chair and inform the secretary of his/her state's tally. Unless overruled by the whole body, each state delegation is autonomous (with one exception), and how votes are reported is up to the discretion of the delegation chair, who may exercise that discretion to cast votes in place of abstentions or votes that violate bindings. If enough of a state's delegates disagree with the chair, they may vote to replace him (as Paul has already done in CO) and update the tally. Alternatively, delegation chairs may be circumvented if at least 6 states ask for a full roll to be taken, whether of a state or the entire convention, whereby delegates are individually polled, at which time they would then be able to declare their abstention. The only exception to this delegation autonomy (unless additional restrictions are added by the convention) is the now infamous unit rule, whereby a majority of a state's delegates (not their state party) vote to throw all their state's votes to a given candidate. This was a common practice years ago, such as when Lincoln's campaign manager, Judge David Davis, needed to secure all 22 votes from the IL delegation for the 1860 Republican convention, of which about a third (from northern IL) then supported Sen. William Seward, so he handled that by binding the state to vote as a unit. While not directly related to state party bindings, the modern prohibition of this practice does suggest an overall bias toward free agency for delegates, as far as the national party is concerned. Alternates cannot replace any delegates, abstaining or otherwise, without first gaining their credentials to vote. At a minimum, this would require those delegates to leave the floor, which they may not voluntarily do. Unless the RNC wants a riot to erupt on national TV, they will not be seating alternates to replace abstaining delegates. Not to mention the fact that if delegates leave with their credentials, new credentials would need to be printed up for alternates so they can vote. This is essentially what caused a ruckus at the AZ State Convention, where Romney delegates failed to properly check out, taking their credentials with them so alternates could not be seated and quorum was broken before business was completed. Now of course, all these parliamentary maneuvers would be pointless if one candidate has majority support, but if they do not, they may be used while both sides cajole uncommitted delegates to come their way.
If there is anyone still doubting the ability of convention delegates to unbind themselves, just consider the following scenarios: the presumptive nominee gets caught committing a felony, or, more likely, does something legal but objectionable (say, infidelity) that goes against the consciences of the delegates. What if, come August, polls indicate a 20+ point gap behind Obama? Would delegates still be unable to exercise their judgement to choose at that time the person they believe would be the best nominee for the party, lest they be found in violation of state "rules" or laws? Of course not. Whichever candidate sends more supporters to Tampa, and keeps them, will win the nomination. It really is as simple as that.
Finally, no one has offered information on what happens to TX delegates if the primary vote is not certified by June 7. Do TX state party rules allow for post-convention binding, and if so, by whom? 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 20:10, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
FYI, I support all four candidates. They are all 'winning', in this order: 1.Romney, 2.Santorum, 3.Gingrich, 4.Paul. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 15:35, 31 May 2012 (UTC)
Rather than respond to each of Guy1890's comments individually, I thought it better to provide a single comment here... Now before I respond to your statements, we need to first make something clear- just because I am currently using an IP account and am not yet an established editor within the Wiki community does not mean you are at liberty to lash out at the validity of what I am saying without providing your own reasoning or sources for your counterarguments beyond "it's been debunked elsewhere"- anyone can say that about anything. I ask you to please be more polite and thoughtful in any subsequent comments.
Before I get to talking about the individual states brought up, we all need to get this Rule 40(b) issue out of the way. This is a brand new rule never before enforced, so I don't think anyone can come forward with sources describing how it is to be interpreted, unless the RNC's office of legal counsel has been inquired and provided a response. All anyone can offer up is their personal opinion, and what I have to say about it is that it seems pretty logical to me that before a roll call can happen, there has to be a finite list of candidates to vote on that is established beforehand, and this is necessarily carried out by a separate process from roll call balloting. After off-the-record discussions with convention organizers, it would appear that delegation chairs will be responsible for filing paperwork with the convention chair sometime before the roll call that indicate who the delegates "support" (aka "would like to see voted on"), similar to my example of the use of affidavits above. If delegates can vote for someone not on that list, than it kind of negates the purpose of the rule, doesn't it? So, if Newt Gingrich doesn't make it, all those delegates supposedly bound to him must necessarily become unbound, or be forced to abstain. If the latter is true, then that would directly be a case of "bound" delegates abstaining (albeit out of necessity), and establish a framework right at the convention about which other bound delegates can claim the right to abstain. If the former is true, then it is absolutely relevant who those delegates actually support. This article suggests that most of the at-large delegates are Romney supporters, and from what I have heard, the district delegates are quite a jumble of Paul (mostly), Romney, Gingrich, and uncommitted people. This is assuming Gingrich & Santorum don't release their delegates, which they will probably do anyway by August. Santorum, fortunately for him, managed to get exactly 5 states with bound pluralities (AL,KS,MS,OK,TN), but if Romney's supporters in the MS delegation (or Paul's in OK) don't voice support for putting Santorum's name in for nomination, all his bound delegates would face the same fate as Gingrich's (unbound or forced abstention). Somehow I doubt that after paying all that money to be there, those delegates would not fiercely oppose moves to have their votes skipped- so they will wind up unbound if not released. Since the primaries are not over, we do not know with 100% certainty that Gingrich will not win over 3 more delegations. When the primary process concludes after NE in July, if everyone on here still believes that my interpretation of Rule 40 is incorrect (that is, everyone thinks "demonstrate support" = "I am bound to vote for"), then it would be be appropriate to move all of Gingrich's delegates into the unbound column and zero his total, even if they have not yet been formally released. Not doing so in such a circumstance would be tacit admission that my reading of the rule has merit, and that delegates can vote for anyone to be added to the list of candidates to be voted on for nomination or that there is no such thing as a bound delegate.
Since I covered Georgia, I will move on to Colorado. The decision has been made to tally unpledged delegates for certain candidates if their committments have been made known publicly, as can be seen in the delegate chart's line for MN, as long as sources have been provided for that. We are therefore not counting just bound delegates (otherwise OH, WY, etc. would be excluded) nor just pledged delegates (or ME, MN, etc would be excluded). I do not deny that the source I gave (a press releaase from the Paul campaign) is biased, or that everything written there is known widely enough to be written into the article. However, it is clear the Paul campaign believes it has at least 12 delegates from Colorado. People who took the RNC's word that Romney was the presumptive nominee in April when the numbers did not back that statement up because it was from a "reliable" source that supposedly knew what it was talking about, should have no problem with including numbers from a source that again, logically, should know what it's talking about with regards to this.
Regarding Wyoming, you write "Paul consistently came in third in support...and that's where Paul stands in the final WY delegate count - third", but I wasn't talking about what 'order' they came in. The reason some people suggest the so-called "delegate strategy" is not democratic is b/c percentages of the popular vote do not necessarily line up with percentages of delegates. By your logic, if in a caucus (so not winner-take-all) Candidate A got 51% of the vote and Candidate B got 49%, it is ok if A gets 99/100 delegates and B gets 1. Same order, no? That is just as "fair" as when B winds up with the 99 delegates. Paul got 21% of the straw vote. He did not get 21% of the delegates. I never used the word "steal" when referring to what Romney accomplished in WY or ND, so don't quote that like I did. I would only say that if rules were broken in the process, but now that you mention it, there is evidence of (as the lead organizer for Santorum's campaign put it) a " railroad job" in North Dakota, including mikes being cut-off and music being blasted to push delegates out of the convention hall when they tried to motion to change things. I'm sure the ND delegation are now saying they'll respect the caucus straw vote b/c they don't want that stuff brought to light during a contests challenge in Tampa (which is still possible), but there's certainly nothing to hold them to that, especially if Santorum & Gingrich can't be voted for.
Finally to your comment Jack, I was talking about the cumulative popular vote, not any particular state. As a history fan myself, I enjoyed learning what the word 'Bolshevik' means among the other things and can definitely see your point about the two convention strategies. Time will tell how the results will compare. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 06:21, 2 June 2012 (UTC)
and
'If Newt releases the delegates and tells us to get behind Romney, I suspect then there will be overwhelming willingness to get behind him,' Passantino said."
(In reply to Guy1890; did not want to indent yet again) Santorum may or may not release his delegates- sources currently indicate that he actually will not. As for Gingrich's in Georgia, if this were 2008, then yes he would have to release his delegates if he wants them to vote for Romney. It would appear that the delegates quoted have not given Rule 40 much thought, and are making the assumption that his name will be presented by enough delegations to actually be available to be voted for.
I did not claim to say what delegates could definitively do or not do with regards to abstention. I can only offer (as can you) an opinion that is based on historical & legal precedent, a particular reading of relevant rules, and my sense of personal dynamics between relevant parties.
I'm not sure what your definition of "fully vetted" is, but I see nothing of the sort in those CO or OK pages. All I saw was some of your comments on the talk pages there. At least the OK article describes some of the events of their convention, although I disagree with the characterization that it was a "rump" convention- it was a legal continuation of a convention never properly adjourned, with the necessary quorum of at least 100 delegates. As I pointed out earlier, it is absolutely relevant which delegation gets seated if Gingrich & Santorum delegates become unbound. OH's delegation is morally committed to certain candidates, but that does not make them bound. As you can read here, there was a meeting for all OH delegates on June 1. I was not privy to discussions there & don't know what was discussed, but if those delegates are as bound as you say, then how would they even entertain the idea of "hav[ing] the delegates back Romney if his campaign reaches an agreement with the former senator from Pennsylvania." The unit rule is not in effect, and Santorum looks like he wants to keep his delegates. Therefore, the only way that scenario could play out is if the delegates are not actually bound. You are also incorrect about WY- none of their delegates are bound. MN's delegation is pledged, but not bound in the slightest, morally or legally. I know what the ND delegates said & I offered a reason why they said that & what to expect if they can't cast ballots for Santorum or Gingrich. It sounds like I might know more about what unfolded there than you do. I also watched the NV convention live. I know what happened there, and am not questioning the current bound allocation. I was just asking how firm it was, since the state party already chose to amend it once. But it does look like you got ME right. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 07:01, 4 June 2012 (UTC)
Maybe this is a few weeks premature, but I think it is time to rewrite the May section, among other things with the convention wins of Paul both in unbound as in bound states.
Paul on the ballot
He needs five states with plurality to be on the ballot at all. Am I reading the numbes right by saying that he right now has:
And it is still possible for him to get:
In other words, it looks like a hard way to get three more states. Then there is of course The Faithless Delegate Strategy where some of Pauls delegates that are bound to Romney or Santorum are released. But since the plurality has to be shown before the roll call the only way to do so would be to challenge the whole bound thing in court under 42 USC § 1971(b). It will hardly happen, since Paul dont want to rock the boat so much he destroy achievements his followers have gained this cycle toward their longterm goals for a simple chance of loosing a vote to Romney. But what states would Paul have in play if it happened? As far as I can see it must be:
States who have not completed their state conventions yet & have enough unelected delegates to tip a "faithless" plurality:
Are there any report form reliable sources that Paul have a plurality of candidates in more states with bound delegates?
Santorum on the ballot
Santorum have right now 6 states, so he could be on the ballot. If he releases his delegates he can stay off it, and that he might not want to do since it could release Paul delegates. But in North Dakota the delegation are only bound by its own statement that it will decided according to its strawpoll at a delegation meeting prior to the National Convention. The delegation has a majority of Romney supporters. In Mississippi Santorum only haves one delegate plurality, that is without the 3 unbound RNC delegates. If they pledge to Romney, Santorum could "loose" the plurality in that state. Witch would mean that he wouldnt be able to show plurality in five states and wouldnt be able to go on the ballot.
Romney the only name on the ballot
Santorums delegates would of course be unbound to vote at the roll call just as Gingrich delegates is. But before the roll call they couldnt be used to show plurality for another candidate. If Paul would come in short too the only name on the ballot would be Romney. So you can vote for Romney or abstain. It would show a more unified front than Santorum getting a lot of disgruntel Paul votes.
Jack Bornholm ( talk) 05:14, 6 June 2012 (UTC)
Another WP page ("Results" TALK page) a reader wants Bachmann and Huntsman both credited with two delegates. If you do a Google-search you can find the Green Paper count [3] with two for Huntsman and one for Bachmann, (unlike our Article). I'll look again. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 01:49, 12 June 2012 (UTC)
It’s really too bad and sad that the GOP is so behind in writing delegate count status. Or is that good? It teaches that it is not over “until the Fat Lady sings” or as I say, “until you see it live at Republican National Convention in August”. RNC/GOP officials say they wait for state input, but apparently a slow state (or confused state like Louisiana) can hold up their report. Here is their latest count, dated April 6, 2012: Delegates confirmed=1034; Romney(573); Santorum(202); Gingrich(132); and lastly, Paul(26), which is to say Romney has twenty times the Paul-delegates.
http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/ — FYI, Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 00:41, 14 June 2012 (UTC)
They have an allocation of 25 delegates, and they are all 'uncommitted'. So Romney has none of them — Santorum has none of them. They pride themselves in being first to vote to start the tide of momentum, in their view, but do not assign allegiance until every other state delegation has spoken. And our maps at the bottom of our article are great, showing a sea of green counties (for Santorum), one lonely country/square (for Romney), and 15 square/counties where the count, apparently, is 'unknown'. Very interesting. It will be interesting to see if they swing over to Romney due to his momentum, the support/endorsement to Romney by the Republican National Committee, the public support of Romney, and the lack of visibility for Santorum. What do you think? Just asking, Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:27, 15 June 2012 (UTC)
What do I think? I suspect that information is accurate, and Paul will have most of the delegation. -- Born2cycle ( talk) 07:59, 16 June 2012 (UTC)
After a two-day tug-of-war marked by bouts of angry shouting, Iowa Republicans elected 25 delegates to send to the national convention in Florida in late August.
By far, the majority will be Paul backers, ...
Seeing as he has 21 of 25 delegates Iowa needs to be colored yellow for the Delegate plurality map. It's more of a majority then Minnesota was. Raymond SabbJr ( talk) 03:45, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
Done Thanks to WP editor Wipkipkedia for updating the delegate map. Iowa now sports the Ron Paul color, and that gives him plurality in three states, IA, MN, and Maine [ME]. With two more, he would have the requisite five state delegations to be on the first ballot. Even without that, I believe he will be asked to speak. The Republican National Convention is in Tampa Bay, Florida, for four days and will have many speakers each day. Can you even imagine GOP leaders throwing away the perceived excitement to hear Ron Paul speak and make the points his supporters (and other Conservatives) want to hear? It is not even a remote possibility "in my mind". As you know from our external link
[7] the convention in Tampa Bay, Florida, is on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, August 27-30. I'll be watching every moment, before, during, and after all the speeches, voting, PR, and social activities.
Charles Edwin
Shipp (
talk)
11:29, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
Another thing to mention; The soft count of Delegates for Ron Paul says 165 on the page chart but still says 143 under the stat box. If the stat box is using Soft count Delegate numbers then it should have Paul with 165 delegates there as well. Raymond SabbJr ( talk) 14:48, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
Our TABLE lists unallocated delegates from Iowa(4), New Hampshire(2), Colorado(14), Minnesota(2), Wyoming(1), Illinois(12), Pennsylvania(32), Louisiana(28), Indiana(16), West Virginia(4), Texas(7), Nebraska(32), Montana(23), and Utah voting on June 26 to send {40 delegates} to convention August 27, a total of 214 delegate positions to be decided.
What are the other best sources for timing, activity, and status? Comments? Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 10:57, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
UTAH holds the last primary in the nation one week from today. There are 40 delegates. Here is the text from Green Papers: "Tuesday 26 June 2012: All 40 of Utah's delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide in today's Presidential Primary. [Utah Republican Party Bylaws 7.0.B]" [9] Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:17, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Politifact recently checked out Ron Paul's claim of 200 delegates, and they could not find sufficient evidence. See http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2012/jun/15/ron-paul/ron-paul-touts-nearly-200-delegates-bound-his-cand/ . Mr. Anon 515 01:03, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
The Associated press has never been a reliable source for delegate counts. I'm disappointed with politifacts for using them instead of something reliable like green paper. Raymond SabbJr ( talk) 04:00, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Interestingly, Gingrich still leads Paul by a very slim margin: Gingrich 144; Paul 141 — (CNN count, see our 'External link' section.) Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 12:24, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Now, whether Paul's claim is itself accurate, that's a separate issue, and can be covered as well, as long as sources like PolitiFact are cited. -- Born2cycle ( talk) 20:34, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
For those of you WATCHing Talk:Ron_Paul_presidential_campaign,_2012 you have seen a lawsuit filed in CA: ... ... ... (Some people are suing GOP to announce that anyone can win [or something] maybe Paul-people.) ... ... ... “...The plaintiffs are asking the court to order the RNC to inform delegates they can vote for the nominee of their choice, to reinstate delegates who lost their seats at the convention because they refused to sign loyalty affidavits and to recount ballots by hand or hold another convention in areas where the sanctity of the ballots are untrustworthy.” ... “Some sources report that Gilbert & Marlowe represent presidential hopeful Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, but the attorney’s office would not confirm with WND whether it has represented Paul previously nor whether the congressman has any connection to the current lawsuit.” [http://www.wnd.com/2012/06/gop-delegates-sue-to-be-free-from-romney/] Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 15:36, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
Minor Comments: (1) The reason I say it is going nowhere is: who will believe a federal court should tell a private organization what they can and cannot do? It is up to each state; and (2) reason I say Romney benefits is because it keeps another person in the arena of ideas, against Obama. However, (3) RNC would rather focus on Obama/Economy, and any distraction favors Obama. (I'm just thinking ahead to how the Article is written in the fall.) These are just refinements on persuasions in the Article. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:45, 21 June 2012 (UTC)
Charles, the lawsuit appears to center around things that are not related directly to the "private organization" aspect of all this. It appears they are asking for any affadavits to be voided, and since the GOP uses taxpayer funded primaries in some cases, they need to follow state and federal voting laws. The real problem here is that these so-called private organizations are so entrenched in the election process that they aren't really 'private' anymore (maybe semi-private?), and to avoid fraud and manipulation of the process, there are laws in place for protecting voters' rights. Personally, I think that political parties need to stand on their own outside of a state-sponsored process, where primaries are paid for by the parties themselves and don't get run by the state election officials. As it stands, we have a system that vigorously protects the two major parties and excludes potential competition. Our founders didn't put parties in the constitution, but they did put freedom of association. We don't subsidize meetings of the local chess club with taxpayer dollars (nor should we), so why should we do that with political parties? I do sort of agree with your comment above that having another voice against Obama is a useful thing for Republicans or Romney, and I think your comment about what the RNC wants presupposes the idea that the National GOP actually wants to win. It may seem odd, but there are times when I strongly question whether the National GOP is really interested in winning or whether they just like the fundraising and theoretically being an opposition voice. When you run Bob Dole in 1988, it seems ok, but when you push him on voters in 1996, it seems forced and more like an act. Romney is on the ticket now because he played ball to let another old codger take the lead back in 2008, and this is his reward, but a Pyrrhic victory for Romney in gaining the nomination now is not going to energize voters to change their votes. The seeming fact that the party doesn't realize this either shows they are very self-deluded, or they simply don't care. As long as the political equivalent of the iPhone doesn't come along, the two parties don't have much of an incentive to really change their ways. -- Avanu ( talk) 12:19, 22 June 2012 (UTC)
I removed a few entries that are already linked in the article. -- Mollskman ( talk) 03:21, 9 July 2012 (UTC)
It is detailed but interesting reading. Read the first few pages of "Rules of the Republican Party" [10] — This is one of our 'External references' and includes, for example: "At each national convention, the roll shall be called and the delegates from each state shall report, through the chairman of the delegation, the names of the elected national committee members whose election shall be ratified by the national convention if otherwise in accordance with these rules." Etc. — And, (b) on page 2: "The Republican National Committee shall have the power to declare vacant the seat of any member who refuses to support the Republican nominee for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States." Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 06:11, 5 July 2012 (UTC)
Forbid? The following sentence is now in the article: "The rules of the Party forbid any state from binding its delegates to any candidate." But I search the url/ref (2008/2012 RNC rules) for the word 'forbid' and it is not in the rules. On the other hand, the word, 'bind' (includes 'binding') occurs 23 times. The sections to read are 13-17, specifically saying delegates can be bound; the key is that the state Republican party decides (for each respective state or providence) and not the national Republican party! The RNC rules are referenced at the bottom of our 'External references' and includes this from section 13: "(c) Any state Republican Party may set the date for any primary, caucus, convention, or meeting for the purpose of voting for a presidential candidate and/or electing, selecting, allocating, or binding delegates to the national convention subject to the scheduling provisions in Rule No. 15." Rule 15 talks about the state Republican parties deciding about their delegates, for example: on page 21 "(7) Any process authorized or implemented by a state Republican Party for selecting delegates and alternate delegates or for binding the presidential preference of such delegates may use every means practicable, in the sole discretion of the state Republican Party, to encourage active military personnel the opportunity to exercise their right to vote." Yes, state Republican parties can 'bind' their delegates/alternates. — Perhaps the contributing editor was referring to the 'not' Ron Paul lawsuit. — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 22:21, 8 July 2012 (UTC)
In three days, all citizens of the 50 states and five territories will have voted. It will still remain to finalize state Republican party delegations. What will happen with remaining states? (in our Table). Start preparing some text for July. — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 04:05, 24 June 2012 (UTC)
A new section have been added to this article. Could the one that have had all the work with creating this graf maybe explain what it is about in the section. Chances? Is is about opinionpolls or something else? And relative to what? And in what way are Jeb Bush a part of it at all! Also it is very important to add one or two references, right now it is actually just some lines that are not validated by any reliable source. And I must confess I dont understand what the lines are about in the first case. I dont want simply to erase it before understanding the idea behind so I am looking forward to hear more in the near future. Jack Bornholm ( talk) 19:35, 30 June 2012 (UTC)
The description of the file on commons are: "A chart based on tracking the wisdom of crowds throughout the Republican Nominee 2012 campaign" But it doesnt say what university or researcher that have done the calculations, neither what crowd we are talking about, is it the general public, all registered republican voters, GOP elected leaders or something else? Are we talking about support for the candidate or is what the crowd predict will happen? Jack Bornholm ( talk) 19:49, 30 June 2012 (UTC)
Our first excellent map is entitled/called: "First place finishes by plurality of delegates" and can now list Utah for Romney(red). On the other hand, Montana, Nebraska, and Louisiana can remain gray. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 22:36, 1 July 2012 (UTC)
Please change the numbers and show that this candidate has won 4 states. -div — Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.119.220.249 ( talk) 05:20, 3 July 2012 (UTC) another source: http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/11595-louisiana-gop-convention-splits-ron-paul-wins-majority-convention
For those curious, everything we knew about the situation in Louisiana when it happened was summed up here. As far as I know, nothing has changed since then. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 08:42, 4 July 2012 (UTC)
For those that are watching Ron Paul activity, FYI:
2012_Republican_National_Convention is very interesting:
"By June 29, this requirement was met by only three candidates, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul. Ron Paul has a majority of delegates in seven states: Colorado, Nevada, Massachusetts, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, and Louisana. Because RNC rules only specify that a potential nomination candidate only win a plurality in five states, and not specifically in five unbound states, Paul has secured a place on the nomination ballot as well as a speaking spot at the 2012 Republican National Convention. Newt Gingrich has won two states, with four states (Montana, Nebraska, Utah, and Louisiana) having either unpledged, disputed, or unallocated delegates.
[1]
[2]
[close-quote] Is this true? Just asking,
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
23:22, 12 July 2012 (UTC)
PS: Watch Hannity! — Preceding unsigned comment added by 99.74.34.52 ( talk) 04:32, 16 July 2012 (UTC)
From Green Papers for Nebraska: [11] [Note the wording, terms, and state rules!]
“Saturday 14 July 2012: The Nebraska State Republican Convention convenes. Congressional District Caucuses made up of the State Convention delegates from each of Nebraska's 3 congressional districts choose the 9 district National Convention delegates (3 per congressional district). The State Convention as a whole selects 23 (10 base at-large plus 13 bonus) at-large delegates to the Republican National Convention.
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of Nebraska's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position. [In each year when a President of the United States is to be elected, the State Convention shall elect a National Committeeman and a National Committeewoman to take office at the close of the succeeding National Convention. - NEBRASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY CONSTITUTION, Article IV Section 1, As adopted on 07/31/2010]
Reference: CONSTITUTION THE REPUBLICAN PARTY OF NEBRASKA as amended 7/31/2010, Section 3.”
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Of course, other states have their own state Republican Party rules. For outsiders, some of the state rules might be unfamiliar. However, members of the respective state Republican parties come to learn the rules and procedures. They are the people that count!
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
01:28, 12 July 2012 (UTC)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
With uncertainty in some of the state delegations it will be very interesting in Nebraska if Ron Paul garners delegate votes. He should.
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
03:09, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
Seems to have actually gone to Ron Paul; it was the last county to report, and earlier had only one vote in (for Mitt Romney). Could someone edit the map?
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=48&f=0&off=0&elect=2 — Preceding unsigned comment added by 174.59.30.216 ( talk) 00:26, 25 June 2012 (UTC)
Done — See Article history.
Charles Edwin Shipp (
talk)
09:59, 2 July 2012 (UTC)
FYI: Paulville,_Texas#See_also — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:00, 17 July 2012 (UTC)
How does one edit the infobox from January 3, 2012 to present over to January 3 to June 26, 2012? GoodDay ( talk) 22:31, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
So what did we learn, in general? Viz: You can go to any WP talk page, change 'talk' to 'template' in the URL and hit 'enter'. TNKS, Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:22, 16 July 2012 (UTC)
There is an interesting interactive graphic of current interest from the olde gray lady, The New York Times, [12] listing seven VP possibilities (not including Condi Rice). See the more complete field at our own Republican_Party_vice_presidential_candidates,_2012 — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 14:49, 16 July 2012 (UTC)
Firstly, RNC rules do not specify that a candidate must have five bound states before nomination, only that they have five states. I understand that Lousianna doesn't count right now, because a few Romney supporters who did not turn their seats around nominated a separate slate from the one nominated by a majority of LA delegates. But rules do not specify anything about a candidate's five states being bound. This means that Nevada and Massachusetts should not count as Romney states, just because they are bound to Romney on the first round of voting. One more thing: WHY is MA counted for Romney??? They were *un-seated* because they wouldn't sign the affidavits! So the GOP can oust delegates for not supporting Romney, but when they want to count up states for nomination requirements, Romney still gets it? Makes a lot of sense.
There are a lot of people who actually think that Paul has only three states, that Romney really did win 42 state pluralities, and that Paul has officially conceded. This page needs to be fixed big time. People know that NBC and FOX lie. People trust Wikipedia. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Gotwake88 ( talk • contribs) 23:46, 12 July 2012 (UTC)
And since the Authoritative Green Papers posted that, the Massachusets GOP has disqualified seventeen of those delegates. So Romney is counted as having won a plurality of delegates in a state where all ten delegates who weren't un-seated support him. That is way better than a plurality. He won support from the whole delegation! Why don't they just un-seat all non-Romney delegates prior to the convention at a rules committee, and claim that he has unanimous support from the Republican Party? It would be very consistent with the party's behavior this year... — Preceding unsigned comment added by Gotwake88 ( talk • contribs) 01:58, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
Momentum is everything! Representative Ron Paul won his three states in the early races. Once Romney started rolling he started dominating and Gingrich and Santorum dropped out. Paul stays in but is not in the news. Romney is. State delegations want to be counted as supporting the winner and we can look at the numbers: Romney is leading Paul 10 to 1. Our 'external references' list the current standings: CNN has Romney(1,544) to Paul(154); USA Today has Romney(1522) to Paul(158); WSJ has Romney(1522) to Paul(158); and the more authoritative Green Papers has Romney(1,489) to Paul(154). Mitt Romney has 295 more delegates than he needs to win on First Ballot, and will have more than that as other state delegations pile on. As for improvements in our Article, suggestions and changes are welcome but sourcing may be required. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 03:01, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
Dear Gotwake88 would you be able to post some reference to the development in MA? Even though it is clear that the delegates are bound to vote for Romney, and that also means that he can show a plurality in that state even if not a single national delegate from the state likes him, the whole MA mixup would still be interesting to add to the article. Many state parties bind their delegates to a primary result not to disfranchice the electorate. MA is a good example of the weakness of the dual system, where delegates are elected in a caucus process but bound to vote according to the result of a primary, in contrast to the direct election system or the slate system. In MA the republican base in the electorate clearly favored Romney (not surprising since he was governor of that state) and then those republican forgot all about the election and went on with their life and work. The active party loyals, or at least a very large group, in MA on the other is Liberitarians and favored Paul. That power is given to the most active party members is the strenght of the caucus system, but that can disfranchise and eventually destroy a party if a small avantgard moves away from the populace. To prevent this the primary was invented. So what happened in MA is very insteresting on many levels and good references is in high demand, so please make any of reliable ones avaible if you know them. Jack Bornholm ( talk) 08:33, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
The US_Constitution and other founding documents are what sets USA apart. Rush Limbaugh says that the people are no greater, but these documents made the difference. Founding Fathers worked very hard to guard against people who want to Hope and fundamentally Change America as we know it. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 15:21, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
More than ‘soapbox’, I agree with the implied thinking here: how this is handled applies to this Republican race, the presidential election against Obama, (and hence, this Article). You can either work within the rules, (rules are changed for the next time), or you can go outside the rules. Ron Paul is not going to do like Ross Perot and give a minority victory to Bill Clinton. Paul wants to change how the RNC runs the US Republican Party. I also agree with others that we can write the history at convention time (third day). Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 18:26, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
Many sources, such as ABC and MSNBC show Paul currently with 4 states, and Nebraska as his fifth. You may have a different interpretation of the rules, but that is original research, and has to be backed by reliable secondary sources. Note that many media outlets are suddenly changing their stances on Louisiana from being Romney to being Ron Paul. I request that we remain neutral on that state, however. Since most media in the US is for-profit, many news organizations will prefer to choose the outcome that leads to the best headline. Which do you think sounds better, "Ron Paul can't win 5 states but he's going for Nebraska anyway" or "Ron Paul's last chance! If he wins Nebraska, he goes to the convention!"? Mr. Anon 515 17:52, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
The bottom line is no one here knows how RNC Rule 40(b) (the source of that 5-state threshold) will be interpreted. It's a new rule never before enforced. Jack believes that Paul must have a plurality in 5 delegations where his supporters are unbound and/or bound to him. As I wrote about extensively here (with a list of some states summarized here), I differ from that view, in that I believe that state bindings apply only to the roll call vote, and not any other motion or petition, including those to put up a candidate for nomination. Some others mistakenly believe that we are talking about a ~20-year old rule that establishes a similar threshold for giving prime-time speeches. Until we can source the RNC's exact interpretation of this rule, this is still an open matter, because Paul supporters hold pluralities in more than 5 states, long before NE came around. These states include CO, IA, ME, MN, NV, and VA. Other states in play (waiting on the decisions of uncommitted's, contests challenges, etc.) include AK, GA, LA, MA, OK, OR, and TX. There could be others that are flying even under my radar.
A couple other comments: It is my expectation that however the convention implements that rule, Paul will get is "15 minutes of fame." Unless Romney's campaign implodes these next few weeks (i.e. some brave prosecutor charges him over the Bain mess), the party regulars who hold many of the delegates seats bound to him will listen to him, so it will effectively be 'his' convention. So if the Paul-Romney "personal relationship" means anything at all, he will give Paul the opportunity to give his speech & have some presence, however small, on the platform. Really, it's the least he could do, after Paul had many opportunties to attack him during the debates & ads and passed (focusing his fire on Gingrich & Santorum). Knowing Paul, he is not likely to stick to any script. I could see him accepting the draft of some pro-Romney speech from Reince Priebus, fingers crossed behind his back. Then as he strolls up to the podium, he whips out his own speech from behind his suit :p
Second, it seems the extra media attention didn't do the Paul supporters in NE any favors- it motivated the Governor there to marshal his troops & make sure people stuck to the "official Romney" slate, all to avoid being embarrassed in "his" state. I'll take a pass on the conspiracy that the media frenzy was planned from on high (i.e. make Paul look bad given his likely minority of state delegates). I think it's more plausible that some staffer who's a political junkie was hoping to inject some interest in the very last state contest, one that is rather lonely on the calendar, and other media outlets picked up on it. Here's a recap from the Daily Paul if anyone is interested. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 11:57, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
Only two delegates assigned to Paul. Guess Paul will have to appeal to whether Colorado or Nevada can be counted, as those are the only other states where he has even a possible plurality. Mr. Anon 515 19:50, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
Has the candidate himself commented on this (whether through email to his supporters or in an official press release)? If so, that might be useful. I imagine that if he officially drops out, endorses Romney, or endorses Gary Johnson, it would have a big impact towards his supporters and his message (positive or negative, it's unknown). Mr. Anon 515 23:04, 14 July 2012 (UTC)
To examine accurate/current delegate counts, our listed external link is good: [14] "Latest Green Papers delegate count" where you can investigate the latest developments, such as most Nevada delegates cheering for Ron Paul, but bound by the NV primary: (Nevada Republican Party rules, for the first, and only, vote at convention.) — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 04:33, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
If you look at Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Overview_of_results you will see that Montana goes for Romney and Louisiana goes for Rick Santorum. I don't think either will go for Ron Paul. Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 13:13, 15 July 2012 (UTC)
Interesting insights from one of our external links, 2012 Election Central: "Following the primary battle and now leading up to the convention in Tampa, it appears the GOP is working hard to avoid alienating Ron Paul and his supporters any further from the party. A new report out in the last couple days explains how the GOP is working to make sure Paul, and his supporters, are fully included and represented in August." — Although interesting, this information would be better in the campaign article: 2012_Republican_National_Convention — Charles Edwin Shipp ( talk) 22:51, 24 July 2012 (UTC)
When will we see the winner of Louisiana and Montana's delegations? J390 ( talk) 01:44, 23 July 2012 (UTC)
I brought up something similar to this before here, but a decision wasn't really reached at the time. I still advocate for a different color for those states (minus LA, plus Montana), since it doesn't make sense to me to award plurality to a state where there are still delegates that have yet to declare their intentions. It would be like arbitrarily stopping the voting in FL at noon on election day and declaring the Romney had the most votes and thus the state, despite there being more registered voters who had not yet cast their ballots than voters who had voted for Romney up to that point. These are states where the delegates are known, but all their votes (even with consideration of state bindings for the roll call) are not. LA can remain gray, since both its delegates and plurality are up in the air.
While the MT delegation is officially uncommitted, there is (as many of you suspected from the lack of Paul supporters flocking to announce it here) little to no Paul support to be found among them. This article gives an accurate, albeit one-sided, view of the proceedings. With 47% of the state delegates, the Paul campaign came very close to walking away with the delegation. Instead, they seem to have been shut out (they may have gotten 1 alternate in).
Ben Swann, meanwhile, seems to have had discussions with members of the RNC Rules Committee, which has apparently confirmed information that I've been told by convention organizers regarding Rule 40. The consequence of that being that Paul has at least 6 states whose delegates would support putting his name in for nomination, and would guarantee him the 15-minute speech whether Romney wants to give it to him or not. Now I admit Swann may not be 100% reliable, as the sources he cites are remaining anonymous, and he has, well, gotten "caught up" by the Paul 'delegate strategy' more than perhaps any other single reporter. However, this is the first instance I've seen of a reporter actually claiming to have asked and referenced the people who would actually provide final clarification on this matter- the Rules Committee. So if we are to use the opposing interpretation of Rule 40 that we've been running with in this article and here, is there not now an impetus to more firmly source that?
To more succinctly answer your question, Charles, we will determine a winner for LA when the Convention Committee on Credentials publishes its report for the delegates to vote on, which will occur the week before the Convention opens. Within the context of the primary season, there will technically never be a winner for MT, because that delegation remains officially unpledged up until the roll call. The same appears to be the case for CO & PA (where there are unpledged pluralities). LA, unlike MT, may be retroactively filled in, because the Credentials Committee will be deciding which delegation was properly elected at that time, that is, within the window of the primary season.
The appeals process within the RNC is a little more complicated than that- it doesn't go straight to Credentials. First, the RNC Committee on Contests (composed of 9 members) is required to promptly hear the case (as it also will for MA & OK), and view written presentations from both sides before publishing its report. It's decision may be appealed to the full Republican National Committee (168 members- 3 from each state & territory), which would render a decision. Any decision by the National Committee may then be appealed to the Credentials Committee (~110 members- 2 from each state & territory excluding those of the state in question), which would incorporate its decision in the Credentials Committee report to the national convention as a whole. The National Convention offers the ultimate say on the matter, and it may do so by offering amendments to the Credentials Report (that would be in order if proposed by majorities of at least 6 delegations, and affecting no more than 1 delegation at a time), before passing the amendment(s) & the report by majority vote. An amended credentials report would require a roll call to pass. Since I have my doubts that the Convention would bother to take up this time-consuming matter as a whole before all those TV cameras, I believe we will be able to use the Credentials report for the purposes of declaring a winner for LA in this article, as it will almost certainly be appealed up to that point. 68.58.63.22 ( talk) 08:20, 28 July 2012 (UTC)
This seems to put doubt on Ben Swann's claim that the RNC has acknowledged any further pluralities by the Paul campaign. The fact that he is filing suit over the contested delegates in Louisiana means that the RNC is refusing to consider those in favor of Paul at the moment. Another interesting piece of information is the fact that Paul appears to be going after Oregon and Massachusett's delegates. If the contested delegates in question are enough to shift the plurality, we may need to move these states into the "disputed" area as well. Mr. Anon 515 16:28, 28 July 2012 (UTC)
This discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it. |
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The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it. |