This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | ← | Archive 4 | Archive 5 | Archive 6 | Archive 7 | Archive 8 | → | Archive 10 |
The past week or so there has been many twists and turns in regards to the official story of the location of the plane and motive behind the plane's disappearance. The Department of Civil Aviation(Malaysia), the police, Home Minister, Defence Minister and Prime Minister have been releasing out information without any coordination and there have been denials and finger pointing.
This is getting interesting by the minute.
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/257165. 58.168.102.157 ( talk) 15:17, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Then now comes Interpol saying that the Malaysians refused their help numerous times after they offered their assistance. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-missing-jet-interpol-probes-more-suspect-passports-1.2565773 http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/malaysia-turned-down-interpol-help-to-hunt-for-mh370-abc-news-reports
Then there are denials by the Defence Minister and the police that investigators have been going to the homes of crew members even though the Home Minister that there were investigations ongoing. http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/more-contradictions-as-zahid-says-cops-visited-homes-of-mh370-crew — Preceding unsigned comment added by 124.187.144.239 ( talk) 05:03, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
The list of naval assets deployed stresses the magnitude of the massive international operation that is taking place. This is worth mentioning; it shows how much importance the issue is receiving from across the region. MAS is after all one of Asia's largest airlines and is a major flyer to most of these countries. There has probably not been such a large multinational effort here since the 2006 tsunami.-- Bazaan ( talk) 18:40, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
There's an edit war underway on whether the full details should be included. I submit that summary information is enough. Full details of every plane and ship is too much. Each interested country is contributing according to its means. That's all we need to know. HiLo48 ( talk) 03:25, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Dear all, various reputable news source has confirmed hijacking as official by investigators. Therefore, do not remove as unsourced/unverified http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fgw-wn-malaysia-plane-hijacking-20140314,0,356436.story#axzz2w0Ev26KS http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-divert-andaman-islands-article-1.1721523 Ceecookie ( talk) 04:55, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Indeed this is not "official." You can count all the news sources you want, but you've still effectively only got one if all those news sources are just repeating what one source said. In this case, it appears to me that the ONLY source we have is the Associated Press. This source could have gone rogue and at a minimum we need another anonymous official to say something similar to another source like Reuters. And what we really need, of course, is an official saying this on the record (i.e. not anonymously). This has not been announced in a press conference. It's worth a mention somewhere because AP does carry it but a mention is all that this warrants right now. No reclassifying the article category yet. One of the reasons for objecting to putting this into the lede just yet is because we've already got most of it in the lede already in the form of "investigators have noted evidence that the aircraft headed west back across the Malay Peninsula and remained capable of flying for hours after first disappearing from radar." What's missing is making that material out to be the "well that settles it then" conclusion the reader should be left to draw him or herself. Evidently one guy in the Malaysian government reckons it is settled and that his colleagues agree. Well, that remains to be seen.-- Brian Dell ( talk) 06:16, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
There's a press conference ongoing now(actually 1.30pm but delayed to start 7 mins earlier instead). Watch at http://www.livestation.com/en/reuters Ceecookie ( talk) 06:28, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Note that "Najib was briefed on the new data by investigators from two U.S. agencies". So in other words the U.S. basically told Malaysia what to say. The idea that the Malaysians are in charge and know more than anyone else is largely just for public consumption such that we should look through that as appropriate when deciding what to make of U.S. officials declining to go on the record while Malaysian officials jump on the record. In other words, it's not like, boom, Malaysian PM speaks and "rumours" are thereby transformed into fact. To a large extent either it was pretty solid before he spoke and still is or it was highly dubious before he spoke and still is.-- Brian Dell ( talk) 17:39, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
We need to keep in perspective the term 'hijacking'. This tends to relate, in common understanding, to someone doing something for specific gain. If the plane was 'hijacked' then why this particular flight? What was so special about it? Did it have some specific cargo or person? If it was get their hands on a 777 (for whatever reason), there are probably other 'easier' options around the globe than targeting South-east Asia (although some logic in doing it in the middle of the night). Also, 'hijacking' a commerial flight, with the security system around it, would mean some significant degree of planning rather than a spontaneous act - and any plan will leave some sort of 'crumb-trail' (...probably too much to expect that the NSA actually got something it...). After all, you have a captive audience of suspects on a plane so they can be traced (unless someone has tried to replicate the movie 'Executive Decision'). It is also reported that the diversion is seen as a 'solo' operation - why so? And if someone/people did take over the plane, do you think the passengers would have been passive for 5+ hours? All in all, the hijacking scenario has too many 'what if' strands to it so I can understand why the Malaysian PM is therefore reluctant to use this term. Mari370 ( talk) 07:52, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Anyone watched today's press conference? Any new tidbits to share? :) Ceecookie ( talk) 10:35, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
"Experts have told Sky News that a hijacking scenario is looking "increasingly likely"." Skynews The official said that hijacking was no longer a theory. “It is conclusive.” CBS 207.119.196.4 ( talk) 15:12, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Now increased to 25 but no details yet of what assets are involved from all. [1] Some countries including France being asked to assist with satellite search and both corridors being treated with equal importance. [2] 60.242.1.97 ( talk) 12:33, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Hello, at risk of being accused of WP:NOTNEWS and WP:SPECULATION and WP:ETC, and all the other arguments that are being used to keep a lid on this talk page, I'd like to make a gentle suggestion... I'd love to see more (any?) info on how Sri Lanka and the Tamils relate to this disappearance. So far I have seen no references to Sri Lanka in the entire article, including the ridiculously exhaustive list of assets deployed to the search. Perhaps this means that there is no RS mention of Sri Lanka, in all the articles written about MH370. Perhaps not. I will see if I can find any RS that mention SL in the same breath as MH370, and I hope others do the same. I find it a bit odd that one of the few countries on the last flight track, within hypothetical range, has a history of terrorism and acts against jetliners, yet has not been even peeped about in this article. But really, five points to the first person who can post "stop speculating" as a response to this question (ten points to the first person who posts an article about Sri Lanka LOL). 72.35.149.153 ( talk) 04:35, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
The search in the southern vector is now being led by Australia. [4] [5] 203.9.185.136 ( talk) 05:49, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
Right now the Malaysian mainstream media(Berita Harian, Star) is trying to make the pilot Capt Zaharie out to be a supporter of Anwar Ibrahim and a opposition Pakatan Rakyat supporter, who supposedly hijacked the plane as revenge for Anwar's conviction in the his sodomy case. 121.217.88.6 ( talk) 09:34, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Aircraft should have ELT (Emergency Locator Transmitter) that deploy in case of an accident. Conventionally, these are stowed at the rear of the aircraft, where damage is likely to be least and to provide greater time for deployment in case of impact (assumed to be at the front of the aircraft). Originally, ELTs allowed search aircraft to find crashed aircraft, if within range. However, the Cospas-Sarsat satellites & ground stations allow these signals to be picked-up automatically since the early 1980's, generating an initial fix of the signal. Currently, aircraft should be installed with 406 MHz ELTs.
I am puzzled why this system has not been mentioned at all so far. I cannot imagine that passenger jets today do not have them installed. Of course, its possible that it failed to transmit (if installed); but the existence of this International satellite based search and rescue system should at least acknowledged. If it were installed and working, we should (at least) have a fix of the aircraft at point of impact or disintegration. If not, why was it not installed?!? If it was installed, there should at least be some discussion as to why it (apparently) did not work.
Enquire (
talk)
13:04, 13 March 2014 (UTC)
We need to bring this discussion back on track
Was an
ELT installed on MH370? If so, why no discussion on looking for signals from it (406MHz). If the aircraft was not equipped with an ELT, why the hell not? It is precisely for incidents like this that ELTs and the
SARSAT system was put in place in early 1980s. I can't believe that a commercial jet liner with passengers does not have this when we have a global satelite search and rescue system in service now for over 30 years. If an ELT was deployed, we would have known where the damn aircraft was last week. Does anyone here have specific knowledge of the current status of ELT installations. I had assumed that they were mandatory. Maybe not? Has anyone asked Malaysian Airlines if they had an ELT on board MH370?!? (please don't make general comments here ... we should be chasing down whether or not MH370 had an ELT on board, and if so, what signals (if any) have been received.) And, if not installed ... how on earth was it possible to put this aircraft into service without an ELT on board?!? What about FAA, surely they demand ELTs to be on board and operational?
Enquire (
talk)
10:01, 14 March 2014 (UTC)
I have to crash (pun intended), but here are a few links to push the conversation in the right direction (each article has discussion of ELTs either in the main ariticle and/or reader comments) ... surely even more relevant ones to come:
Enquire ( talk) 10:39, 14 March 2014 (UTC)
The above seems to be speculation about a possible future system. An ELT, on the other hand, is an existing technology and together with COSPAS/SARSAT is a well established system to detect and find downed aircraft. The system is not used at all in normal flight, it only becomes active after a crash. MH370 should have an ELT on board. If so, it should have become active on impact (with land or sea). Of course, if the aircraft was landed or made a soft landing somewhere, the ELT would not have activated. If the ELT was activated, SARSAT would have picked it up, period. Since there has been no report of an ELT transmission, it is reasonable to suppose that one of the more probable scenarios is that the aircraft landed in some fashion somewhere. If it had crashed in a conventional sense, one of the SARSAT satellites should have picked up an ELT distress signal. That, apparently, has not happened. Also, I seem to recall hearing on the news that some relatives of passengers report that if they call their loved one's mobiles, they appear to be ringing (rather than getting an error message). If this rumour is true, that also tends to suggest that the aircraft made a relatively soft landing somewhere... Anyway, this does mean that the ELT (or, rather, apparent lack of an ELT distress signal) may turn out to be a significant part of the puzzle.
Has anyone here seen any maintenance manual or have access to any Boeing 777-200ER technical information about the location and deployment mechanism for ELTs on that aircraft? Ideally, the ELT should be electable from the rear of the fuselage on impact (like airbags, except that in this case the ELT is ejected, rather than restrained). Also, I would NOT expect the ELT to be accessible within the aircraft. This is significant, because if the aircraft was hijacked by knowledgeable people, I would expect that they would (also) want to disable to ELT as well as the transponder. So, unless the ELT was disabled on the ground prior to departure, I would not expect that crew or passengers would be able to tamper with it. Does anyone have any specifics of the ELT configuration and deployment mechanism on a Boeing 777-200ER?
Enquire (
talk)
08:38, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
I don't believe there is any mention of whether the passenger cabin was equipped with such technologies. If so, it should be discussed whether it was disabled or tampered with. -- 71.135.169.104 ( talk) 04:13, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
There was a link to an aeronautical chart in the article that has been removed. This is even more important than it was before, since there are additional airway intersections being discussed now. Roches ( talk) 13:22, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
So, in order to combat some of the consistent things that are occurring on the page and are reverted almost immediately, would you all be interested in creating an edit notice to let people know what not to add? One issue that has been going on as long as the article has been up is the link to Air France Flight 447, and I added a hidden notice to the "See also" section, but it is only useful if the section isn't removed completely and reinstated. If we could put up something to let others know that we don't want speculation and the like, it might help combat some of the edits that go against what we are trying to moderate here. Kevin Rutherford ( talk) 02:57, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
should not there be a detailed timeline highlighting the major facts and efforts of the rescue mission?, and moreover the everchanging details and facts of malaysian airlines personnel regarding the investigations?KUMANAN KABILAN 15:28, 17 March 2014 (UTC) — Preceding unsigned comment added by Kumanan84 ( talk • contribs)
So far I have not seen any real explanation of the two geographic arcs reported by Inmarsat as the possible locations of the plane's "pings". What follows is my tenative understanding based on my own knowledge of satellite communications. If anyone comes across more authoritative details please report them; it would be very helpful.
The 777 had an Inmarsat terminal that communicated through the Inmarsat 3 F1 satellite parked at approximately 64.5 degrees east longitude over the Indian Ocean. It apparently remained active after the user data stream (e.g., from the engines) was cut off.
Inmarsat 3 F1 was launched in 1996. It has an inclination of 1.65 degrees so its stationkeeping fuel may have run out (nominal geostationary inclination is zero). This means the satellite moves +/- 1.65 degrees around the equator, and this may affect the accuracy of the position estimates if it was not taken into account. The published diagrams show the satellite directly on the equator, which seems unlikely.
An Inmarsat terminal periodically transmits registration messages through the satellite saying "I'm here if you want to call me". (Mobile phones also send "registration" messages for the same reason whenever they're powered on and idle.) My understanding is that this uses the global beam so that alone does not provide a location clue, and while registrations do not carry location information the fact that it's a TDMA system means it must precisely synchronize its transmissions to the satellite signal to avoid interference between users. By measuring the round trip speed-of-light delay the ground can estimate the distance of the terminal from the satellite, and the two arcs of possible location on the map belong to the locus of points corresponding to the measured delay at the time. (Note that they coincide with the 40 degree elevation contour of the satellite's ground footprint.) The terminal could actually be anywhere on a complete circle around the sub-satellite point except that the plane did not have the fuel to reach much of it. And I presume the gap between the two arcs corresponds to areas where the plane would have been noticed by ground radars.
Again, this is simply my understanding of how those arcs were derived. It would be very helpful to find authoritative information to either confirm or refute my understanding so they could be explained in the article using something other than OR. Thanks. Karn ( talk) 04:24, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
The information (and arcs given) relate to the last ping between the aircraft and IOR. What about the preceding 6 pings? Wouldn't they also contain data providing distance? Wouldn't that provide some form of ongoing longitudinal data? Dogmaphobia ( talk) 15:52, 17 March 2014 (UTC)— Preceding unsigned comment added by Dogmaphobia ( talk • contribs) 15:43, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
The plane flew over three military radar stations in northern Peninsular Malaysia that were manned by 4 man crews at any given time yet they did not detect the plane. That's hardly surprising since there were 2,508 Malaysian airspace intrusions by the Singaporean air force between 2008 and mid 2011, though those were through a predictable route. Can we add this? http://www.smh.com.au/national/mh370-missing-plane-flew-unnoticed-past-malaysian-radar-installations-20140316-34vmn.html http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/543054/20140313/malaysia-india-mh370-missing-flight-china-rumour.htm http://www.fz.com/content/air-force-caught-napping-mh370-could-have-been-saved 124.179.75.36 ( talk) 03:38, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
As has happened before, Brian is trying to scoop the lead by putting what he thinks is the top hot theory there. He is holding out that the statement in the lead is iron clad fact, but the lead is written with weasel words that suggest it is mere supposition and speculation, and this is borne out by a closer examination of the sources. Except for one vague comment from the White House, the press articles cited all quote unnamed US officials. Whilst some of the small details are consistent, many of the unnamed sources are contradictory. The issue, once again, is not whether these statements are reliably sourced, but that they are still speculative working theories. They are suppositions, albeit based on the facts.
"The search for a missing Malaysian jetliner with 239 people onboard could expand westward into the Indian Ocean based on information that the plane may have flown for at least four hours after it dropped from civilian radar, U.S. officials said Thursday. A senior U.S. official said the information came from data sent via a satellite communications system by Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370. That data has convinced U.S. officials that the plane’s engines continued to run for at least four hours after all other communication was lost."
also
"In Washington, one senior administration official said the signals came from the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), with which planes maintain contact with ground stations using radio or satellite signals. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the ongoing investigation, said Malaysian authorities shared the flight data with the administration. The fact that the signals did not reveal the plane’s location suggested that it came from the engine.... Other U.S. officials said their information did not reveal what direction the plane flew — or whether it simply circled — during those four hours." "Jay Carney said, 'It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive, but new information, an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean". Washington Post
"U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines stayed in the air for up to four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky. The investigators believe the plane flew for a total of up to five hours, according to these people, based on analysis of signals sent by the Boeing 777's satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of certain onboard systems to the ground. WSJ
"Other U.S. officials said their information did not reveal what direction the plane flew — or whether it simply circled — during those four hours." ABC News
"The Wall Street Journal newspaper quoted U.S. investigators on Thursday as saying they suspected the plane remained in the air for about four hours after its last confirmed contact, citing data from the plane's engines that are automatically transmitted to the ground as part of a routine maintenance program." CBS News
Then, there's this:
"In Washington, the Malaysian announcement did little to change American investigators’ perspectives on what happened to the plane. 'It doesn’t mean anything; all it is is a theory,' one senior American official said. 'Find the plane, find the black boxes and then we can figure out what happened. It has to be based on something, and until they have something more to go on it’s all just theories.' The investigator spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the inquiry." from that impeccable source New York Times, published 15 March
The two apparent things that nobody disputes is that the communications system was manually overriden, and that information from satellites indicate that the aircraft continued to ping for several hours after its last transmission. Therefore, the lead needs to be written without the weasel words, but specifically mention only facts as facts. -- Ohc ¡digame! 06:04, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
Some news outlets are reporting that a reporting system was "turned off" at 1:07, 14 minutes before the transponder was turned off at 1:21. Wasn't the 1:07 transmission just part of the Rolls-Royce automated reporting, and that was the last periodic transmission received, but it may well have been working beyond 1:07? There seems to be confusion both in the press and in this article about what happened at 1:07. I'd love some clarification about specifically what systems were known to be doing what, at what times. Maybe a graphic also? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 74.116.173.2 ( talk) 17:22, 14 March 2014 (UTC)
From airline maintenance personnel: ACARS sends data periodically, the TRANSPONDER sends data continuously. This is why there is a 14 min gap from the last ACARS transmission to when the transponder stops. It all appears to be in line with a sudden catastrophic occurrence. Unfortunately it appears that the media is confused, or at minimum this needs to be clarified to the media. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 118.93.222.141 ( talk) 04:59, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
There have been a few 'it's from a major reputable source, it must be reliable' arguments advanced in discussions here. I'm personally aware (i.e. I was directly involved in the relevant projects at the time so had the actual facts to hand) of cases where leading aerospace journalists for major broadsheet newspapers have printed stories that were either gross exaggerations (ironically that one was during 777 development, and the journo in question won an award for his aerospace beat reporting that year), or outright political fabulations (the journo in that case switched over to politics and now has a reputation as an opinion for hire). Equally there may be organisational bias at the editorial level, for instance the Daily Telegraph, otherwise about as reliable as media sources get, will rarely print a story that is positive about UK defence equipment. What I'm trying to say is that we need to apply a level of skepticism even when the story is in a reputable journal, particularly if it is quoting an un-named source and/or counter to other statements, otherwise we risk reporting theorising as fact.
We've now had the Malaysian PM saying the aircraft may have been diverted, but we've had people arguing for incorporating the hijacking theory here for days, AFAICS this is the first time the 'the aircraft was deliberately diverted' theory (which still falls short of hijacking) has crossed the line to where it should form part of the article, but we've had people arguing for that, based on media sources quoting unnamed sources, for several days. It doesn't matter that those theories now have some high-level backing, they're still theories, and only now do we have the factual evidence - an attributable statement by the Malaysian PM - that they are anything more than a blue-sky theory that was bounced around for 30 seconds at a watercooler at the Department of Agriculture.
Be Skeptical 82.45.87.103 ( talk) 13:19, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Allow me to
quote former National Transportation Safety Board vice-chairman Bob Frances with respect to Andy Pasztor's WSJ story, which was first with the remained capable of flying for hours story:
"Andy Pasztor is a very reputable journalist who knows his stuff in aviation as much as anyone. For him to create this article out of whole cloth for me stretches credulity. . . . So you don’t know where to go. I would go with what Andy said because I have great faith in him and he doesn’t have any political ax to grind, as do the Malaysians."--
Brian Dell (
talk)
23:13, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | ← | Archive 4 | Archive 5 | Archive 6 | Archive 7 | Archive 8 | → | Archive 10 |
The past week or so there has been many twists and turns in regards to the official story of the location of the plane and motive behind the plane's disappearance. The Department of Civil Aviation(Malaysia), the police, Home Minister, Defence Minister and Prime Minister have been releasing out information without any coordination and there have been denials and finger pointing.
This is getting interesting by the minute.
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/257165. 58.168.102.157 ( talk) 15:17, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Then now comes Interpol saying that the Malaysians refused their help numerous times after they offered their assistance. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-missing-jet-interpol-probes-more-suspect-passports-1.2565773 http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/malaysia-turned-down-interpol-help-to-hunt-for-mh370-abc-news-reports
Then there are denials by the Defence Minister and the police that investigators have been going to the homes of crew members even though the Home Minister that there were investigations ongoing. http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/more-contradictions-as-zahid-says-cops-visited-homes-of-mh370-crew — Preceding unsigned comment added by 124.187.144.239 ( talk) 05:03, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
The list of naval assets deployed stresses the magnitude of the massive international operation that is taking place. This is worth mentioning; it shows how much importance the issue is receiving from across the region. MAS is after all one of Asia's largest airlines and is a major flyer to most of these countries. There has probably not been such a large multinational effort here since the 2006 tsunami.-- Bazaan ( talk) 18:40, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
There's an edit war underway on whether the full details should be included. I submit that summary information is enough. Full details of every plane and ship is too much. Each interested country is contributing according to its means. That's all we need to know. HiLo48 ( talk) 03:25, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Dear all, various reputable news source has confirmed hijacking as official by investigators. Therefore, do not remove as unsourced/unverified http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fgw-wn-malaysia-plane-hijacking-20140314,0,356436.story#axzz2w0Ev26KS http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-divert-andaman-islands-article-1.1721523 Ceecookie ( talk) 04:55, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Indeed this is not "official." You can count all the news sources you want, but you've still effectively only got one if all those news sources are just repeating what one source said. In this case, it appears to me that the ONLY source we have is the Associated Press. This source could have gone rogue and at a minimum we need another anonymous official to say something similar to another source like Reuters. And what we really need, of course, is an official saying this on the record (i.e. not anonymously). This has not been announced in a press conference. It's worth a mention somewhere because AP does carry it but a mention is all that this warrants right now. No reclassifying the article category yet. One of the reasons for objecting to putting this into the lede just yet is because we've already got most of it in the lede already in the form of "investigators have noted evidence that the aircraft headed west back across the Malay Peninsula and remained capable of flying for hours after first disappearing from radar." What's missing is making that material out to be the "well that settles it then" conclusion the reader should be left to draw him or herself. Evidently one guy in the Malaysian government reckons it is settled and that his colleagues agree. Well, that remains to be seen.-- Brian Dell ( talk) 06:16, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
There's a press conference ongoing now(actually 1.30pm but delayed to start 7 mins earlier instead). Watch at http://www.livestation.com/en/reuters Ceecookie ( talk) 06:28, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Note that "Najib was briefed on the new data by investigators from two U.S. agencies". So in other words the U.S. basically told Malaysia what to say. The idea that the Malaysians are in charge and know more than anyone else is largely just for public consumption such that we should look through that as appropriate when deciding what to make of U.S. officials declining to go on the record while Malaysian officials jump on the record. In other words, it's not like, boom, Malaysian PM speaks and "rumours" are thereby transformed into fact. To a large extent either it was pretty solid before he spoke and still is or it was highly dubious before he spoke and still is.-- Brian Dell ( talk) 17:39, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
We need to keep in perspective the term 'hijacking'. This tends to relate, in common understanding, to someone doing something for specific gain. If the plane was 'hijacked' then why this particular flight? What was so special about it? Did it have some specific cargo or person? If it was get their hands on a 777 (for whatever reason), there are probably other 'easier' options around the globe than targeting South-east Asia (although some logic in doing it in the middle of the night). Also, 'hijacking' a commerial flight, with the security system around it, would mean some significant degree of planning rather than a spontaneous act - and any plan will leave some sort of 'crumb-trail' (...probably too much to expect that the NSA actually got something it...). After all, you have a captive audience of suspects on a plane so they can be traced (unless someone has tried to replicate the movie 'Executive Decision'). It is also reported that the diversion is seen as a 'solo' operation - why so? And if someone/people did take over the plane, do you think the passengers would have been passive for 5+ hours? All in all, the hijacking scenario has too many 'what if' strands to it so I can understand why the Malaysian PM is therefore reluctant to use this term. Mari370 ( talk) 07:52, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Anyone watched today's press conference? Any new tidbits to share? :) Ceecookie ( talk) 10:35, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
"Experts have told Sky News that a hijacking scenario is looking "increasingly likely"." Skynews The official said that hijacking was no longer a theory. “It is conclusive.” CBS 207.119.196.4 ( talk) 15:12, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Now increased to 25 but no details yet of what assets are involved from all. [1] Some countries including France being asked to assist with satellite search and both corridors being treated with equal importance. [2] 60.242.1.97 ( talk) 12:33, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Hello, at risk of being accused of WP:NOTNEWS and WP:SPECULATION and WP:ETC, and all the other arguments that are being used to keep a lid on this talk page, I'd like to make a gentle suggestion... I'd love to see more (any?) info on how Sri Lanka and the Tamils relate to this disappearance. So far I have seen no references to Sri Lanka in the entire article, including the ridiculously exhaustive list of assets deployed to the search. Perhaps this means that there is no RS mention of Sri Lanka, in all the articles written about MH370. Perhaps not. I will see if I can find any RS that mention SL in the same breath as MH370, and I hope others do the same. I find it a bit odd that one of the few countries on the last flight track, within hypothetical range, has a history of terrorism and acts against jetliners, yet has not been even peeped about in this article. But really, five points to the first person who can post "stop speculating" as a response to this question (ten points to the first person who posts an article about Sri Lanka LOL). 72.35.149.153 ( talk) 04:35, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
The search in the southern vector is now being led by Australia. [4] [5] 203.9.185.136 ( talk) 05:49, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
Right now the Malaysian mainstream media(Berita Harian, Star) is trying to make the pilot Capt Zaharie out to be a supporter of Anwar Ibrahim and a opposition Pakatan Rakyat supporter, who supposedly hijacked the plane as revenge for Anwar's conviction in the his sodomy case. 121.217.88.6 ( talk) 09:34, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
Aircraft should have ELT (Emergency Locator Transmitter) that deploy in case of an accident. Conventionally, these are stowed at the rear of the aircraft, where damage is likely to be least and to provide greater time for deployment in case of impact (assumed to be at the front of the aircraft). Originally, ELTs allowed search aircraft to find crashed aircraft, if within range. However, the Cospas-Sarsat satellites & ground stations allow these signals to be picked-up automatically since the early 1980's, generating an initial fix of the signal. Currently, aircraft should be installed with 406 MHz ELTs.
I am puzzled why this system has not been mentioned at all so far. I cannot imagine that passenger jets today do not have them installed. Of course, its possible that it failed to transmit (if installed); but the existence of this International satellite based search and rescue system should at least acknowledged. If it were installed and working, we should (at least) have a fix of the aircraft at point of impact or disintegration. If not, why was it not installed?!? If it was installed, there should at least be some discussion as to why it (apparently) did not work.
Enquire (
talk)
13:04, 13 March 2014 (UTC)
We need to bring this discussion back on track
Was an
ELT installed on MH370? If so, why no discussion on looking for signals from it (406MHz). If the aircraft was not equipped with an ELT, why the hell not? It is precisely for incidents like this that ELTs and the
SARSAT system was put in place in early 1980s. I can't believe that a commercial jet liner with passengers does not have this when we have a global satelite search and rescue system in service now for over 30 years. If an ELT was deployed, we would have known where the damn aircraft was last week. Does anyone here have specific knowledge of the current status of ELT installations. I had assumed that they were mandatory. Maybe not? Has anyone asked Malaysian Airlines if they had an ELT on board MH370?!? (please don't make general comments here ... we should be chasing down whether or not MH370 had an ELT on board, and if so, what signals (if any) have been received.) And, if not installed ... how on earth was it possible to put this aircraft into service without an ELT on board?!? What about FAA, surely they demand ELTs to be on board and operational?
Enquire (
talk)
10:01, 14 March 2014 (UTC)
I have to crash (pun intended), but here are a few links to push the conversation in the right direction (each article has discussion of ELTs either in the main ariticle and/or reader comments) ... surely even more relevant ones to come:
Enquire ( talk) 10:39, 14 March 2014 (UTC)
The above seems to be speculation about a possible future system. An ELT, on the other hand, is an existing technology and together with COSPAS/SARSAT is a well established system to detect and find downed aircraft. The system is not used at all in normal flight, it only becomes active after a crash. MH370 should have an ELT on board. If so, it should have become active on impact (with land or sea). Of course, if the aircraft was landed or made a soft landing somewhere, the ELT would not have activated. If the ELT was activated, SARSAT would have picked it up, period. Since there has been no report of an ELT transmission, it is reasonable to suppose that one of the more probable scenarios is that the aircraft landed in some fashion somewhere. If it had crashed in a conventional sense, one of the SARSAT satellites should have picked up an ELT distress signal. That, apparently, has not happened. Also, I seem to recall hearing on the news that some relatives of passengers report that if they call their loved one's mobiles, they appear to be ringing (rather than getting an error message). If this rumour is true, that also tends to suggest that the aircraft made a relatively soft landing somewhere... Anyway, this does mean that the ELT (or, rather, apparent lack of an ELT distress signal) may turn out to be a significant part of the puzzle.
Has anyone here seen any maintenance manual or have access to any Boeing 777-200ER technical information about the location and deployment mechanism for ELTs on that aircraft? Ideally, the ELT should be electable from the rear of the fuselage on impact (like airbags, except that in this case the ELT is ejected, rather than restrained). Also, I would NOT expect the ELT to be accessible within the aircraft. This is significant, because if the aircraft was hijacked by knowledgeable people, I would expect that they would (also) want to disable to ELT as well as the transponder. So, unless the ELT was disabled on the ground prior to departure, I would not expect that crew or passengers would be able to tamper with it. Does anyone have any specifics of the ELT configuration and deployment mechanism on a Boeing 777-200ER?
Enquire (
talk)
08:38, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
I don't believe there is any mention of whether the passenger cabin was equipped with such technologies. If so, it should be discussed whether it was disabled or tampered with. -- 71.135.169.104 ( talk) 04:13, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
There was a link to an aeronautical chart in the article that has been removed. This is even more important than it was before, since there are additional airway intersections being discussed now. Roches ( talk) 13:22, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
So, in order to combat some of the consistent things that are occurring on the page and are reverted almost immediately, would you all be interested in creating an edit notice to let people know what not to add? One issue that has been going on as long as the article has been up is the link to Air France Flight 447, and I added a hidden notice to the "See also" section, but it is only useful if the section isn't removed completely and reinstated. If we could put up something to let others know that we don't want speculation and the like, it might help combat some of the edits that go against what we are trying to moderate here. Kevin Rutherford ( talk) 02:57, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
should not there be a detailed timeline highlighting the major facts and efforts of the rescue mission?, and moreover the everchanging details and facts of malaysian airlines personnel regarding the investigations?KUMANAN KABILAN 15:28, 17 March 2014 (UTC) — Preceding unsigned comment added by Kumanan84 ( talk • contribs)
So far I have not seen any real explanation of the two geographic arcs reported by Inmarsat as the possible locations of the plane's "pings". What follows is my tenative understanding based on my own knowledge of satellite communications. If anyone comes across more authoritative details please report them; it would be very helpful.
The 777 had an Inmarsat terminal that communicated through the Inmarsat 3 F1 satellite parked at approximately 64.5 degrees east longitude over the Indian Ocean. It apparently remained active after the user data stream (e.g., from the engines) was cut off.
Inmarsat 3 F1 was launched in 1996. It has an inclination of 1.65 degrees so its stationkeeping fuel may have run out (nominal geostationary inclination is zero). This means the satellite moves +/- 1.65 degrees around the equator, and this may affect the accuracy of the position estimates if it was not taken into account. The published diagrams show the satellite directly on the equator, which seems unlikely.
An Inmarsat terminal periodically transmits registration messages through the satellite saying "I'm here if you want to call me". (Mobile phones also send "registration" messages for the same reason whenever they're powered on and idle.) My understanding is that this uses the global beam so that alone does not provide a location clue, and while registrations do not carry location information the fact that it's a TDMA system means it must precisely synchronize its transmissions to the satellite signal to avoid interference between users. By measuring the round trip speed-of-light delay the ground can estimate the distance of the terminal from the satellite, and the two arcs of possible location on the map belong to the locus of points corresponding to the measured delay at the time. (Note that they coincide with the 40 degree elevation contour of the satellite's ground footprint.) The terminal could actually be anywhere on a complete circle around the sub-satellite point except that the plane did not have the fuel to reach much of it. And I presume the gap between the two arcs corresponds to areas where the plane would have been noticed by ground radars.
Again, this is simply my understanding of how those arcs were derived. It would be very helpful to find authoritative information to either confirm or refute my understanding so they could be explained in the article using something other than OR. Thanks. Karn ( talk) 04:24, 16 March 2014 (UTC)
The information (and arcs given) relate to the last ping between the aircraft and IOR. What about the preceding 6 pings? Wouldn't they also contain data providing distance? Wouldn't that provide some form of ongoing longitudinal data? Dogmaphobia ( talk) 15:52, 17 March 2014 (UTC)— Preceding unsigned comment added by Dogmaphobia ( talk • contribs) 15:43, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
The plane flew over three military radar stations in northern Peninsular Malaysia that were manned by 4 man crews at any given time yet they did not detect the plane. That's hardly surprising since there were 2,508 Malaysian airspace intrusions by the Singaporean air force between 2008 and mid 2011, though those were through a predictable route. Can we add this? http://www.smh.com.au/national/mh370-missing-plane-flew-unnoticed-past-malaysian-radar-installations-20140316-34vmn.html http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/543054/20140313/malaysia-india-mh370-missing-flight-china-rumour.htm http://www.fz.com/content/air-force-caught-napping-mh370-could-have-been-saved 124.179.75.36 ( talk) 03:38, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
As has happened before, Brian is trying to scoop the lead by putting what he thinks is the top hot theory there. He is holding out that the statement in the lead is iron clad fact, but the lead is written with weasel words that suggest it is mere supposition and speculation, and this is borne out by a closer examination of the sources. Except for one vague comment from the White House, the press articles cited all quote unnamed US officials. Whilst some of the small details are consistent, many of the unnamed sources are contradictory. The issue, once again, is not whether these statements are reliably sourced, but that they are still speculative working theories. They are suppositions, albeit based on the facts.
"The search for a missing Malaysian jetliner with 239 people onboard could expand westward into the Indian Ocean based on information that the plane may have flown for at least four hours after it dropped from civilian radar, U.S. officials said Thursday. A senior U.S. official said the information came from data sent via a satellite communications system by Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370. That data has convinced U.S. officials that the plane’s engines continued to run for at least four hours after all other communication was lost."
also
"In Washington, one senior administration official said the signals came from the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), with which planes maintain contact with ground stations using radio or satellite signals. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the ongoing investigation, said Malaysian authorities shared the flight data with the administration. The fact that the signals did not reveal the plane’s location suggested that it came from the engine.... Other U.S. officials said their information did not reveal what direction the plane flew — or whether it simply circled — during those four hours." "Jay Carney said, 'It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive, but new information, an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean". Washington Post
"U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines stayed in the air for up to four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky. The investigators believe the plane flew for a total of up to five hours, according to these people, based on analysis of signals sent by the Boeing 777's satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of certain onboard systems to the ground. WSJ
"Other U.S. officials said their information did not reveal what direction the plane flew — or whether it simply circled — during those four hours." ABC News
"The Wall Street Journal newspaper quoted U.S. investigators on Thursday as saying they suspected the plane remained in the air for about four hours after its last confirmed contact, citing data from the plane's engines that are automatically transmitted to the ground as part of a routine maintenance program." CBS News
Then, there's this:
"In Washington, the Malaysian announcement did little to change American investigators’ perspectives on what happened to the plane. 'It doesn’t mean anything; all it is is a theory,' one senior American official said. 'Find the plane, find the black boxes and then we can figure out what happened. It has to be based on something, and until they have something more to go on it’s all just theories.' The investigator spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the inquiry." from that impeccable source New York Times, published 15 March
The two apparent things that nobody disputes is that the communications system was manually overriden, and that information from satellites indicate that the aircraft continued to ping for several hours after its last transmission. Therefore, the lead needs to be written without the weasel words, but specifically mention only facts as facts. -- Ohc ¡digame! 06:04, 17 March 2014 (UTC)
Some news outlets are reporting that a reporting system was "turned off" at 1:07, 14 minutes before the transponder was turned off at 1:21. Wasn't the 1:07 transmission just part of the Rolls-Royce automated reporting, and that was the last periodic transmission received, but it may well have been working beyond 1:07? There seems to be confusion both in the press and in this article about what happened at 1:07. I'd love some clarification about specifically what systems were known to be doing what, at what times. Maybe a graphic also? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 74.116.173.2 ( talk) 17:22, 14 March 2014 (UTC)
From airline maintenance personnel: ACARS sends data periodically, the TRANSPONDER sends data continuously. This is why there is a 14 min gap from the last ACARS transmission to when the transponder stops. It all appears to be in line with a sudden catastrophic occurrence. Unfortunately it appears that the media is confused, or at minimum this needs to be clarified to the media. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 118.93.222.141 ( talk) 04:59, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
There have been a few 'it's from a major reputable source, it must be reliable' arguments advanced in discussions here. I'm personally aware (i.e. I was directly involved in the relevant projects at the time so had the actual facts to hand) of cases where leading aerospace journalists for major broadsheet newspapers have printed stories that were either gross exaggerations (ironically that one was during 777 development, and the journo in question won an award for his aerospace beat reporting that year), or outright political fabulations (the journo in that case switched over to politics and now has a reputation as an opinion for hire). Equally there may be organisational bias at the editorial level, for instance the Daily Telegraph, otherwise about as reliable as media sources get, will rarely print a story that is positive about UK defence equipment. What I'm trying to say is that we need to apply a level of skepticism even when the story is in a reputable journal, particularly if it is quoting an un-named source and/or counter to other statements, otherwise we risk reporting theorising as fact.
We've now had the Malaysian PM saying the aircraft may have been diverted, but we've had people arguing for incorporating the hijacking theory here for days, AFAICS this is the first time the 'the aircraft was deliberately diverted' theory (which still falls short of hijacking) has crossed the line to where it should form part of the article, but we've had people arguing for that, based on media sources quoting unnamed sources, for several days. It doesn't matter that those theories now have some high-level backing, they're still theories, and only now do we have the factual evidence - an attributable statement by the Malaysian PM - that they are anything more than a blue-sky theory that was bounced around for 30 seconds at a watercooler at the Department of Agriculture.
Be Skeptical 82.45.87.103 ( talk) 13:19, 15 March 2014 (UTC)
Allow me to
quote former National Transportation Safety Board vice-chairman Bob Frances with respect to Andy Pasztor's WSJ story, which was first with the remained capable of flying for hours story:
"Andy Pasztor is a very reputable journalist who knows his stuff in aviation as much as anyone. For him to create this article out of whole cloth for me stretches credulity. . . . So you don’t know where to go. I would go with what Andy said because I have great faith in him and he doesn’t have any political ax to grind, as do the Malaysians."--
Brian Dell (
talk)
23:13, 16 March 2014 (UTC)