2019 - The first three archives are a disaster. I've cleaned them up somewhat. Here in archive 3, a few years ago someone went back and tried to give topical headings the threads were long done. See Talk:Global_warming/Archive_1 for more details. NewsAndEventsGuy ( talk) 02:04, 30 August 2019 (UTC)
This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 | Archive 4 | Archive 5 | → | Archive 10 |
Another question about endorsement by national scientific bodies. How relevant are such organizational endorsements, in light of the 1975 NAS endorsement of a looming "ice age"? -- Uncle Ed
I'd like to see this article restructured to address various key questions:
Or some other structure... Martin
A. It seems the article pits (good) environmentalists against (bad) fossil fuel salesmen. Each side claims the scientists support their view.
B. Shouldn't the article focus first on the science of the global warming issue?
C. Or should it assume the truth of the global warming hypothesis?
D. Or should it start with a breakdown of who believes what, and then get into the science?
E. I'm willing to work with just about any outline you all want: Sheldon, Martin, Maveric -- let's come up with an outline, so we don't work at cross purposes. If you want all the hedging and scepticism in a separate article, fine. As long as (a) it's somewhere readily accessible and (b) the controversy isn't swept under the rug in a way that suggests that the Wikipedia endorses GW theory.
Uncle Ed
22:09, February 6, 2003
Martin, I'm sure you enjoy a good joke as much as I do, but it seems that not all the "consequences" you list would be detrimental. Was this a slip, a wry jest, or what? Some scientists have said that an additional 1.0 C rise in world temperature would be good for the earth -- like the Medieval climate optimum -- Uncle Ed
Martin, your outline assumes implicitly that global warming would be a bad thing. You propose a section on "averting" global warming, which implies that it's a danger to be prevented. Am I reading you right? If so, where should we put in the contrary idea that 1.0 to 1.5 C of additional warming over 1999 levels would be a good thing? -- Uncle Ed
Perhaps you should ask the residents of island nations like Tuvalu, Barbados, and Tonga whether they think that global warming would be a good thing. soulpatch
To add into article:
I'm still not too happy about the structure. It still presumes the truth of the GW theory and the "need" for a response to GW. A neutral article would first define global warming and give any evidence for it, then provide possible causes. It would also describe predicted effects (bad and good) and describe how people feel about these effects. It should then go on to list the various proposals, such as "study it a bit more till we're sure"; "assume GW is happening, is bad, and is preventable, and that the US should ratify the Kyoto Protocol"; as well as "there's not much GW going on, and another degree or so wouldn't hurt, but Kyoto would, so DON'T sign it".
There's really both a political and a scientific issue here. It would be good to separate the 2 issues. How about global warming science and global warming politics as 2 separate articles? Or let global warming be the science article, and Kyoto Protocol be the politics article?
I would just like this article to get finished without having to worry that (as Two16 hinted) someone's going to become so angry as to want to rip a hole in my body. -- Uncle Ed 19:16 Feb 10, 2003 (UTC)
It seems to me, Ed, that you're actually kind of where I am, but I think I need to do it to prove to you that it would work without underplaying your position. I'll faff around in Global warming/temp, and then you can compare before and after and see what y'all prefer. Martin
The GW page is now too long (>30k; wiki issues warnings).
I propose that a number of the subsections be cut into their own pages, preferrably the more controversial ones so that the main text could perhaps stabalise... I see discussions below about a nice new logical structure but is that actually going to happen?
William M. Connolley 14:32 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)
Look Ed, I don't want to get combative over this, but you really, really want to step outside and take a look at the countries that are in the front line of climate change before you make those glib assertions that a degree or two of warming might be "a good thing". That sort of ignorant, Euro/US-centric comment raises hackles in a way that's difficult to express without being uncivil. I pride myself on being restrained and understanding of cultural differences, but I live in a land that is already suffering severe consequences, and while I can live with the deniers (for every man has the right to his opinion), taking it to past mere denial to a "who cares" stance makes my blood boil. Please, knock it off. Tannin 20:23 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)
I've removed the bit in "evidence against warming" about the 25% inc in Antarctica. As it stands, its nonsense, though the follow-up isn't. But sadly the follow-up doesn't make sense without the first text. If anyone knows what the original 25% text is supposed to mean, then by all means put it back, with refs.
( William M. Connolley 20:18 18 Jun 2003 (UTC)) Several edits, all tending to removed stuff that was (IMHO) unbalanced onto the skeptical side. Both Climate model and IPCC sections are really redundant as there now exist separate pages for these - so anything useful in these sections should be stripped out and put there.
While we're on IPCC, please note that (except for a few rare counterexamples) IPCC *doesn't do research itself* it synthesises other people work. So talking about IPCC running (GCM) climate models; or assembling temperature time series, is wrong.
I'm not sure how to include this, but the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization highlights extreme weather and links it to climate change: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=421166 Vicki Rosenzweig 16:29 3 Jul 2003 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 09:28, 19 Aug 2003 (UTC)) Ed, for reasons mysterious to me you re-inserted "land" before thermos. Since you're so fond of it, I've left it in, but inserted "and marine" to make it clear that both records show essentially the same trends.
You also added some nonsense about the satellites: please please take a bit more care before doing this: the satellite record doesn't start in 1975 for one; and the satellite record now shows warming at 0.7 oC / decade at the moment.
Ditto the stuff about dissing non-western T records: the marine record destroys that. Please put in some refs if you want to keep it.
I don't think the satellite thing is nonsense. Last I saw, it showed no significant warming, rather than 7.0C per century or 0.7C per decade. Please provide a reference for the latter figure, and I will also dig up a reference for "no significant warming". Perhaps it depends on who is reading the data, and what portion they're analyzin. Personally, I have to go with a linear regression on the entire available period, although I have often seen extrapolations from a short period belied by observations from following years. As you probably know, the cycles of up and down tend to dwarf other trends. -- Uncle Ed 14:50, 19 Aug 2003 (UTC)
(Oh good grief Ed ***go look at the marine record*** WMC) -- Uncle Ed 14:56, 20 Aug 2003 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 13:47, 21 Aug 2003 (UTC)) All of this satellite stuff belongs on the hist t record page & I shall move it there as soon as I get round to it.
( SEWilco 08:21, 12 Sep 2003 (UTC)) Satellite records which cover the recent decades are "historical"? I thought their data indicates that some processes are not understood (although not as dramatic as the indication by recent ice ages). Is all this "global warming" stuff from before 2002 "historical", and should be moved so we can study what has happened in the past two years?
Does anyone have any information on How Many Scientists support any of the major views on global warming? That is, has there been a survey, a poll, a petition -- anything that would indicate the proportion of scientists in the climate field who agree or disagree with any of the following?
I am looking for something more than a politician's statement during a political campaign, but I'll settle for that if that's all there is... -- Uncle Ed 14:04, 21 Aug 2003 (UTC)
Reverted WMC change. ( SEWilco 04:50, 25 Aug 2003 (UTC))
I added headers and a horizontal line or two so as to make discussions easier to find and follow. Edit whatever subjects I misinterpreted in your favorite sections; sometimes several topics are mixed together and a summary is difficult. -- SEWilco 15:57, 25 Aug 2003 (UTC)
---
Hello,
I've added a link to the very interesting Discovery of GW page, a 250,000 words account at the american Institute of Physics. Also, I updated Pr Linzen testimony before the Senate (the old link led to empty page), and I added the [testimony http://www.senate.gov/~gov_affairs/071801_karl.htm]of Pr Thomas Karl, director of the NCDC and the NOAA, before the Senate. This testimony strongly endorses the IPCC and is therefore totally unambiguous about the existence of GW. Moreover, he states that "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities." -- [User:nja|nja], 23 Sep 2003
Comments are requested on a discussion of the size of this article. The discussion is taking place at Talk:Scientific opinion of global warming. -- Cyan 21:28, 26 Sep 2003 (UTC)
Hi Ed. *all* quantitative reconstructions I know of show much the same. Which ones do you think show the MWP etc?
( William M. Connolley 18:50, 18 Oct 2003 (UTC)) In the absence of an answer, I've re-edited to emphasise that *all* quantitative reco's show much the same pattern.
Looking through Ed's edits, I'm struck by how he always portrays this stuff in terms of a fight between enviro's and skeptics: science rarely seems to get a look in (and he never references it). In the real world, (this is my p.o.v) there are the enviro's (from Ed's definition), the science, and the skeptics (my definition) running in a rough spectrum. Wikipedia should be attempting to portray what the science says (when discussing temperature trends for example) except on occaisions were the whole story is the skueptic-enviro battle.
And on a lesser note, lets not fill the GW page with T stuff: that belongs on the T pages if at all possible.
(Now we switch to Ed Poor, with inserts by WMC): Neutrality requires that the Wikipedia not take sides in any controversy: political, religious, or scientific. Since 1990, there has a been a scientific controversy about GW. It might be fueled by politics or economics, but I'm not sure of that; I just know that scientists disagree.
Some enviros (as you call them [well, as I was careful to say you call them actually (WMC)]) seek to portray the controversy as science (their side) vs. skeptics (the other side). The popular layman's magazine, Scientific American, takes that POV. The Wikipedia cannot endorse this or any other POV, but should report that certain leaders, spokesmen or advocates deem it to be this way.
Part of science, as you probably know, is the skeptical examination of data and conclusions. At their best, scientists are willing to let others "check their work" by:
Scientists are not saints; they are no more reliable or honest than appeals court judges, Wikipedia editors or bus drivers.
To prevent interested parties from "cheating", there must be checks and balances, such as peer review (which is in itself imperfect) but mostly open review by the entire body of the world's scientists.
I respect your scientific work, William, and I'm glad you're involved with Wikipedia. I make many mistakes (some of which you have kindly corrected for me).
As for the "all reconstructions" thing, a quick web search will turn up the IPCC's former dataset, the one which included the Maunder Minimum, the medievel warm period and little ice age -- I'm not sure of the capitalization of those terms at Wikipedia.
A few years ago, they decided to stop using the dataset which showed the ups and downs, and decided to go with the Hockey Stick. I'm not sure why, but I have my suspicions. -- Uncle Ed 15:58, 20 Oct 2003 (UTC)
Thank you for your quick and courteous replies, Dr. Connolley. Actually you do have to explain the difference between 'qualitative' and 'quantitative' in this context. The article is for laymen (non-scientists like me). I'm confident that you're making a critically important distinction there, but I'm failing to grasp it. (It's kind of like the 'internal' and 'external' factors thing -- and what's that other climate buzzword? 'radiative forcing' -- these terms mean nothing to our readers).
One place where we have always agreed, is that when advocates like Daly "don't tell us" something crucial, that "something" needs to go into the article. I don't want any one-sided argumentation in Wikipedia's science articles -- not even if it supports "my" POV :-)
(I will address your other points later - I'm in the middle of something that's dividing my attention, but I wanted to start acknowledging our points of agreement right away ^_^
-- Uncle Ed 19:26, 20 Oct 2003 (UTC)
Could it please be stated prominently that the (vast?) majority of scientists in the field are indeed subscribers to "global warming" and "greenhouse gasses" - this information shouldn't be sidelined into a seperate scientific opinion of global warming article. Evercat 16:54, 22 Oct 2003 (UTC)
Well. Can the actual scientist, William M. Connolley, please comment on this? :-) Evercat 21:06, 23 Oct 2003 (UTC)
So, no doubt you're all aware of this already, but there's a new NASA satellite study out on arctic warming [5], purporting to show that warming in the Arctic has been eight times higher than that recorded by ground measurements. Rapid ice retreat, etc., also documented. Bully for them. Meanwhile, I must suffer in Boston through near-record-low temperatures. Mrrghrrfrggrggg... Graft 17:19, 24 Oct 2003 (UTC)
So, to all you pro- and anti-global-warming types, while I appreciate the back-and-forth and think it probably results in a more robust spread of ideas and counterpoints, it also means the article is going to look like shit if people keep inserting arguments randomly into the mix. Can people try to think about the structure of the article and finagle new information into it in a non-cut-and-paste fashion? If this article is choppy and unreadable it's no help to anybody. And I think it's safe to say no magic day when everything is "settled" is going to arrive, so we need to be keeping the house tidy as we go, hey? Graft 04:30, 30 Oct 2003 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 09:59, 30 Oct 2003 (UTC)) Revert Ed's changes re qual/quant. Ed: if you think there are quant records that support your POV you need to find them *before* editing this page. And, if the link to the (unwritten) sargasso page is any guide to your intentions, do please remember that its a single point, *not* a reconstruction of the NH record...
As to the satellite stuff: I've moved that to the satellite T page, where it belongs. Sigh.
( William M. Connolley 19:39, 4 Nov 2003 (UTC)) Ed, you've added a pile of POV stuff under a transparent disguise of removing POV. So I've reverted it, retaining only the "such an increase" which is fair enough. In detail:
Actually, I too would like to know what quantitative and qualitative actually mean in this context. :-) Evercat 21:28, 4 Nov 2003 (UTC)
Heh. I know what quality and quantity are, but we're talking about the quality and quantity of what? The data? Is "quantitative research" that which uses a large quantity of data, while "qualitative research" uses high quality data? The Temperature record of the past 1000 years seems to use quantitative/qualitative to mean global/local - is that the real distinction? Confused, :-) Evercat 19:28, 5 Nov 2003 (UTC)
( SEWilco 05:21, 4 Dec 2003 (UTC)) In the absence of proof against it, I've added the suppressed evidence that warming is due to flying saucers venting too much heat. No, I actually replaced the claims that somehow all numbers are producing the same results. Maybe a definition of "quantitative" is needed more than a link to it.
I think some of you are confusing politics in this.
Here are too things not to forget. Global Warming is 2 words. Global, and warming. If the globe is warming, then global warming is true. Global warming is an *undeniable* fact and I can give you about 100 links to international science magazines and *SCIENCE* journals. The *human causes* of global warming are in dispute, not the warming itself. The globe warms and cools naturally to *a far* greater extent than what is happening now. The greatest cause of global warming can be proven to be simply normal climatic change.
There are some who believe that humans are *accelerating* warming. I will not go into their theories, but it's simple as that.
( William M. Connolley 18:01, 14 Jan 2004 (UTC)) If you've got science to cite, please cite it. Otherwise, you're just telling us your own opinions - fascinating to you, no doubt, but not to anyone else.
Climate researcher Stephen Schneider, who thought in the 1970s that aerosols might lead to global cooling, has become a strong proponent of the global warming hypothesis. Atmospheric physicist Richard Lindzen and Harvard astronomer Sallie Baliunas oppose the theory.
( William M. Connolley 18:45, 3 Feb 2004 (UTC))67.170.31.123 has (repeatedly) added three things of dubious merit:
This topic is dominated by a few activists who have an agenda. Reverting back to a previous document that has not been corrupted is the only answer.
Thankyou William for maintaining this page in ... if not great shape, at least no worse a shape than it was in before. Tannin 10:51, 4 Feb 2004 (UTC)
2019 - The first three archives are a disaster. I've cleaned them up somewhat. Here in archive 3, a few years ago someone went back and tried to give topical headings the threads were long done. See Talk:Global_warming/Archive_1 for more details. NewsAndEventsGuy ( talk) 02:04, 30 August 2019 (UTC)
This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 | Archive 4 | Archive 5 | → | Archive 10 |
Another question about endorsement by national scientific bodies. How relevant are such organizational endorsements, in light of the 1975 NAS endorsement of a looming "ice age"? -- Uncle Ed
I'd like to see this article restructured to address various key questions:
Or some other structure... Martin
A. It seems the article pits (good) environmentalists against (bad) fossil fuel salesmen. Each side claims the scientists support their view.
B. Shouldn't the article focus first on the science of the global warming issue?
C. Or should it assume the truth of the global warming hypothesis?
D. Or should it start with a breakdown of who believes what, and then get into the science?
E. I'm willing to work with just about any outline you all want: Sheldon, Martin, Maveric -- let's come up with an outline, so we don't work at cross purposes. If you want all the hedging and scepticism in a separate article, fine. As long as (a) it's somewhere readily accessible and (b) the controversy isn't swept under the rug in a way that suggests that the Wikipedia endorses GW theory.
Uncle Ed
22:09, February 6, 2003
Martin, I'm sure you enjoy a good joke as much as I do, but it seems that not all the "consequences" you list would be detrimental. Was this a slip, a wry jest, or what? Some scientists have said that an additional 1.0 C rise in world temperature would be good for the earth -- like the Medieval climate optimum -- Uncle Ed
Martin, your outline assumes implicitly that global warming would be a bad thing. You propose a section on "averting" global warming, which implies that it's a danger to be prevented. Am I reading you right? If so, where should we put in the contrary idea that 1.0 to 1.5 C of additional warming over 1999 levels would be a good thing? -- Uncle Ed
Perhaps you should ask the residents of island nations like Tuvalu, Barbados, and Tonga whether they think that global warming would be a good thing. soulpatch
To add into article:
I'm still not too happy about the structure. It still presumes the truth of the GW theory and the "need" for a response to GW. A neutral article would first define global warming and give any evidence for it, then provide possible causes. It would also describe predicted effects (bad and good) and describe how people feel about these effects. It should then go on to list the various proposals, such as "study it a bit more till we're sure"; "assume GW is happening, is bad, and is preventable, and that the US should ratify the Kyoto Protocol"; as well as "there's not much GW going on, and another degree or so wouldn't hurt, but Kyoto would, so DON'T sign it".
There's really both a political and a scientific issue here. It would be good to separate the 2 issues. How about global warming science and global warming politics as 2 separate articles? Or let global warming be the science article, and Kyoto Protocol be the politics article?
I would just like this article to get finished without having to worry that (as Two16 hinted) someone's going to become so angry as to want to rip a hole in my body. -- Uncle Ed 19:16 Feb 10, 2003 (UTC)
It seems to me, Ed, that you're actually kind of where I am, but I think I need to do it to prove to you that it would work without underplaying your position. I'll faff around in Global warming/temp, and then you can compare before and after and see what y'all prefer. Martin
The GW page is now too long (>30k; wiki issues warnings).
I propose that a number of the subsections be cut into their own pages, preferrably the more controversial ones so that the main text could perhaps stabalise... I see discussions below about a nice new logical structure but is that actually going to happen?
William M. Connolley 14:32 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)
Look Ed, I don't want to get combative over this, but you really, really want to step outside and take a look at the countries that are in the front line of climate change before you make those glib assertions that a degree or two of warming might be "a good thing". That sort of ignorant, Euro/US-centric comment raises hackles in a way that's difficult to express without being uncivil. I pride myself on being restrained and understanding of cultural differences, but I live in a land that is already suffering severe consequences, and while I can live with the deniers (for every man has the right to his opinion), taking it to past mere denial to a "who cares" stance makes my blood boil. Please, knock it off. Tannin 20:23 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)
I've removed the bit in "evidence against warming" about the 25% inc in Antarctica. As it stands, its nonsense, though the follow-up isn't. But sadly the follow-up doesn't make sense without the first text. If anyone knows what the original 25% text is supposed to mean, then by all means put it back, with refs.
( William M. Connolley 20:18 18 Jun 2003 (UTC)) Several edits, all tending to removed stuff that was (IMHO) unbalanced onto the skeptical side. Both Climate model and IPCC sections are really redundant as there now exist separate pages for these - so anything useful in these sections should be stripped out and put there.
While we're on IPCC, please note that (except for a few rare counterexamples) IPCC *doesn't do research itself* it synthesises other people work. So talking about IPCC running (GCM) climate models; or assembling temperature time series, is wrong.
I'm not sure how to include this, but the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization highlights extreme weather and links it to climate change: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=421166 Vicki Rosenzweig 16:29 3 Jul 2003 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 09:28, 19 Aug 2003 (UTC)) Ed, for reasons mysterious to me you re-inserted "land" before thermos. Since you're so fond of it, I've left it in, but inserted "and marine" to make it clear that both records show essentially the same trends.
You also added some nonsense about the satellites: please please take a bit more care before doing this: the satellite record doesn't start in 1975 for one; and the satellite record now shows warming at 0.7 oC / decade at the moment.
Ditto the stuff about dissing non-western T records: the marine record destroys that. Please put in some refs if you want to keep it.
I don't think the satellite thing is nonsense. Last I saw, it showed no significant warming, rather than 7.0C per century or 0.7C per decade. Please provide a reference for the latter figure, and I will also dig up a reference for "no significant warming". Perhaps it depends on who is reading the data, and what portion they're analyzin. Personally, I have to go with a linear regression on the entire available period, although I have often seen extrapolations from a short period belied by observations from following years. As you probably know, the cycles of up and down tend to dwarf other trends. -- Uncle Ed 14:50, 19 Aug 2003 (UTC)
(Oh good grief Ed ***go look at the marine record*** WMC) -- Uncle Ed 14:56, 20 Aug 2003 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 13:47, 21 Aug 2003 (UTC)) All of this satellite stuff belongs on the hist t record page & I shall move it there as soon as I get round to it.
( SEWilco 08:21, 12 Sep 2003 (UTC)) Satellite records which cover the recent decades are "historical"? I thought their data indicates that some processes are not understood (although not as dramatic as the indication by recent ice ages). Is all this "global warming" stuff from before 2002 "historical", and should be moved so we can study what has happened in the past two years?
Does anyone have any information on How Many Scientists support any of the major views on global warming? That is, has there been a survey, a poll, a petition -- anything that would indicate the proportion of scientists in the climate field who agree or disagree with any of the following?
I am looking for something more than a politician's statement during a political campaign, but I'll settle for that if that's all there is... -- Uncle Ed 14:04, 21 Aug 2003 (UTC)
Reverted WMC change. ( SEWilco 04:50, 25 Aug 2003 (UTC))
I added headers and a horizontal line or two so as to make discussions easier to find and follow. Edit whatever subjects I misinterpreted in your favorite sections; sometimes several topics are mixed together and a summary is difficult. -- SEWilco 15:57, 25 Aug 2003 (UTC)
---
Hello,
I've added a link to the very interesting Discovery of GW page, a 250,000 words account at the american Institute of Physics. Also, I updated Pr Linzen testimony before the Senate (the old link led to empty page), and I added the [testimony http://www.senate.gov/~gov_affairs/071801_karl.htm]of Pr Thomas Karl, director of the NCDC and the NOAA, before the Senate. This testimony strongly endorses the IPCC and is therefore totally unambiguous about the existence of GW. Moreover, he states that "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities." -- [User:nja|nja], 23 Sep 2003
Comments are requested on a discussion of the size of this article. The discussion is taking place at Talk:Scientific opinion of global warming. -- Cyan 21:28, 26 Sep 2003 (UTC)
Hi Ed. *all* quantitative reconstructions I know of show much the same. Which ones do you think show the MWP etc?
( William M. Connolley 18:50, 18 Oct 2003 (UTC)) In the absence of an answer, I've re-edited to emphasise that *all* quantitative reco's show much the same pattern.
Looking through Ed's edits, I'm struck by how he always portrays this stuff in terms of a fight between enviro's and skeptics: science rarely seems to get a look in (and he never references it). In the real world, (this is my p.o.v) there are the enviro's (from Ed's definition), the science, and the skeptics (my definition) running in a rough spectrum. Wikipedia should be attempting to portray what the science says (when discussing temperature trends for example) except on occaisions were the whole story is the skueptic-enviro battle.
And on a lesser note, lets not fill the GW page with T stuff: that belongs on the T pages if at all possible.
(Now we switch to Ed Poor, with inserts by WMC): Neutrality requires that the Wikipedia not take sides in any controversy: political, religious, or scientific. Since 1990, there has a been a scientific controversy about GW. It might be fueled by politics or economics, but I'm not sure of that; I just know that scientists disagree.
Some enviros (as you call them [well, as I was careful to say you call them actually (WMC)]) seek to portray the controversy as science (their side) vs. skeptics (the other side). The popular layman's magazine, Scientific American, takes that POV. The Wikipedia cannot endorse this or any other POV, but should report that certain leaders, spokesmen or advocates deem it to be this way.
Part of science, as you probably know, is the skeptical examination of data and conclusions. At their best, scientists are willing to let others "check their work" by:
Scientists are not saints; they are no more reliable or honest than appeals court judges, Wikipedia editors or bus drivers.
To prevent interested parties from "cheating", there must be checks and balances, such as peer review (which is in itself imperfect) but mostly open review by the entire body of the world's scientists.
I respect your scientific work, William, and I'm glad you're involved with Wikipedia. I make many mistakes (some of which you have kindly corrected for me).
As for the "all reconstructions" thing, a quick web search will turn up the IPCC's former dataset, the one which included the Maunder Minimum, the medievel warm period and little ice age -- I'm not sure of the capitalization of those terms at Wikipedia.
A few years ago, they decided to stop using the dataset which showed the ups and downs, and decided to go with the Hockey Stick. I'm not sure why, but I have my suspicions. -- Uncle Ed 15:58, 20 Oct 2003 (UTC)
Thank you for your quick and courteous replies, Dr. Connolley. Actually you do have to explain the difference between 'qualitative' and 'quantitative' in this context. The article is for laymen (non-scientists like me). I'm confident that you're making a critically important distinction there, but I'm failing to grasp it. (It's kind of like the 'internal' and 'external' factors thing -- and what's that other climate buzzword? 'radiative forcing' -- these terms mean nothing to our readers).
One place where we have always agreed, is that when advocates like Daly "don't tell us" something crucial, that "something" needs to go into the article. I don't want any one-sided argumentation in Wikipedia's science articles -- not even if it supports "my" POV :-)
(I will address your other points later - I'm in the middle of something that's dividing my attention, but I wanted to start acknowledging our points of agreement right away ^_^
-- Uncle Ed 19:26, 20 Oct 2003 (UTC)
Could it please be stated prominently that the (vast?) majority of scientists in the field are indeed subscribers to "global warming" and "greenhouse gasses" - this information shouldn't be sidelined into a seperate scientific opinion of global warming article. Evercat 16:54, 22 Oct 2003 (UTC)
Well. Can the actual scientist, William M. Connolley, please comment on this? :-) Evercat 21:06, 23 Oct 2003 (UTC)
So, no doubt you're all aware of this already, but there's a new NASA satellite study out on arctic warming [5], purporting to show that warming in the Arctic has been eight times higher than that recorded by ground measurements. Rapid ice retreat, etc., also documented. Bully for them. Meanwhile, I must suffer in Boston through near-record-low temperatures. Mrrghrrfrggrggg... Graft 17:19, 24 Oct 2003 (UTC)
So, to all you pro- and anti-global-warming types, while I appreciate the back-and-forth and think it probably results in a more robust spread of ideas and counterpoints, it also means the article is going to look like shit if people keep inserting arguments randomly into the mix. Can people try to think about the structure of the article and finagle new information into it in a non-cut-and-paste fashion? If this article is choppy and unreadable it's no help to anybody. And I think it's safe to say no magic day when everything is "settled" is going to arrive, so we need to be keeping the house tidy as we go, hey? Graft 04:30, 30 Oct 2003 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 09:59, 30 Oct 2003 (UTC)) Revert Ed's changes re qual/quant. Ed: if you think there are quant records that support your POV you need to find them *before* editing this page. And, if the link to the (unwritten) sargasso page is any guide to your intentions, do please remember that its a single point, *not* a reconstruction of the NH record...
As to the satellite stuff: I've moved that to the satellite T page, where it belongs. Sigh.
( William M. Connolley 19:39, 4 Nov 2003 (UTC)) Ed, you've added a pile of POV stuff under a transparent disguise of removing POV. So I've reverted it, retaining only the "such an increase" which is fair enough. In detail:
Actually, I too would like to know what quantitative and qualitative actually mean in this context. :-) Evercat 21:28, 4 Nov 2003 (UTC)
Heh. I know what quality and quantity are, but we're talking about the quality and quantity of what? The data? Is "quantitative research" that which uses a large quantity of data, while "qualitative research" uses high quality data? The Temperature record of the past 1000 years seems to use quantitative/qualitative to mean global/local - is that the real distinction? Confused, :-) Evercat 19:28, 5 Nov 2003 (UTC)
( SEWilco 05:21, 4 Dec 2003 (UTC)) In the absence of proof against it, I've added the suppressed evidence that warming is due to flying saucers venting too much heat. No, I actually replaced the claims that somehow all numbers are producing the same results. Maybe a definition of "quantitative" is needed more than a link to it.
I think some of you are confusing politics in this.
Here are too things not to forget. Global Warming is 2 words. Global, and warming. If the globe is warming, then global warming is true. Global warming is an *undeniable* fact and I can give you about 100 links to international science magazines and *SCIENCE* journals. The *human causes* of global warming are in dispute, not the warming itself. The globe warms and cools naturally to *a far* greater extent than what is happening now. The greatest cause of global warming can be proven to be simply normal climatic change.
There are some who believe that humans are *accelerating* warming. I will not go into their theories, but it's simple as that.
( William M. Connolley 18:01, 14 Jan 2004 (UTC)) If you've got science to cite, please cite it. Otherwise, you're just telling us your own opinions - fascinating to you, no doubt, but not to anyone else.
Climate researcher Stephen Schneider, who thought in the 1970s that aerosols might lead to global cooling, has become a strong proponent of the global warming hypothesis. Atmospheric physicist Richard Lindzen and Harvard astronomer Sallie Baliunas oppose the theory.
( William M. Connolley 18:45, 3 Feb 2004 (UTC))67.170.31.123 has (repeatedly) added three things of dubious merit:
This topic is dominated by a few activists who have an agenda. Reverting back to a previous document that has not been corrupted is the only answer.
Thankyou William for maintaining this page in ... if not great shape, at least no worse a shape than it was in before. Tannin 10:51, 4 Feb 2004 (UTC)