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The third paragraph needs to be rewritten as it's a copyright violation from NASA's press release. AxelBoldt 01:51, 25 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Remember, the information is not copyright, just the wording. Is the paragraph better now? Any other problems? It's not usually hard to improve government wording. -- Wetman 23:14, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
The following paragraph of mine was deleted with the comment "removing very strange commentary on the odds":
In addition the sentence "Experts expect that additional data will allow for 2004 MN4 to be re-rated as a level zero (no threat) object." was added, which repeats the above mistake. Maybe my explanation above was too dense, so I try first with an example:
Those two statements are contradictory; no rational person can believe in them at the same time. If I'm almost sure that the probability will be revised to 0%, then I'm almost sure that the Dow Jones will not be above 12000 on 1/2/2006. On the other hand, if my best guess is that it will happen with 40% probability, then I'm not almost sure, but only 60% sure, that further data will revise the predicted probability to 0%.
It's the same with NASA. If NASA expects the asteroid to hit us with probability 2.4% (latest estimate), then they don't expect "in all likelihood" to eventually eliminate the possibility of impact; they expect this to happen with 97.6% probability.
In fact, NASA noticed their mistake in the Dec 24 update to their report:
AxelBoldt 19:27, 25 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Here's another try. Consider the event E that the asteroid will hit us, and the event F that our odd estimates for impact will eventually reach 100%. I claim that (assuming our prediction capabilities are at all adequate) these two events E and F are equivalent: E happens if and only if F happens. The reason: if E happens, then a few days before the due date, we will be sure of the impact, so at that time our odd estimates will have reached 100%, meaning that F happens. On the other hand, if F happens, then at a certain point in time we will be certain that impact happens. This implies that impact does indeed happen, i.e. that E happens.
So E and F are equivalent events, and equivalent events have the same probability, no matter what. AxelBoldt 22:33, 25 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Axel is absolutely correct. NASA's press release is an exact mathematical statement, i.e., the probability is, exactly, in their opinion, such-and-such a number. There is no way to say that "it is likely that the odds will eventually become zero" without confusing people. There is one probability and that should be the referenced one. 64.123.58.14 01:35, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Cema: I think the original thesis is incorrect. Probability may be a function of time. In this case, as the celestial body comes closer to Earth and its trajectory can be better estimated, astronomers will be able to reevaluate the probability of an impact. The reevaluation is likely to reduce the probability, according to the experts. This is what the quoted NASA report means.
At the same time, I agree that the rhetorical trick was used and it was intended for the unaware public. Cema 03:40, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
I was trying to compute the magnitude of an earthquake that release an energy of 1600 megatons of TNT. A megaton of TNT has 4.2*1022 ergs, so we are looking at 6.72*1025 ergs. I used the formula
from http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/louie/class/100/magnitude.html to find the Moment to be 1.34 * 1030 dyne-cm. Now using the formula
from the same page, I arrive at a magnitude of
Using the other (and almost equivalent) formula
and solving for M gives a similar result.
This value for M seems to be way too high. Does anybody see the mistake? Could it really be a 9.4 magnitude earthquake? AxelBoldt 02:09, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
This is great! A minor ripple of near-quasi-panic for Armageddon. So get me this straight...this asteroid is seen as the biggest threat from space since those Torino scales were made up.
I'd guess it also depends on if you own real estate in impact the area. I advise selling short rather than waiting to see if you've developed an interesting new view of the coast.
The name was twice changed to the subscript notation, the second time with the comment "NASA may not use subscripts, but that is nevertheless the preferred notation". Is there any evidence for this preference, excepting obviously the preference of the person who made the change? I see that NEODyS at the University of Pisa also doesn't use subscripts, nor have I seen any newspaper articles that do so. AxelBoldt 07:17, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Ok, would it be agreeable to add something like "(often written as 2004 MN4)" in the intro paragraph, in order to tell our readers that the article is about the same thing that NASA talks about?
I guess there's no issue with search engines etc., since our title already uses the more common version of the name.
Also, the above asteroid naming conventions should be explained somewhere if they aren't already, maybe on asteroid, so that the reader can resolve the difference between common name and our name. AxelBoldt 20:15, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Yaohua2000 attempted to move this page to the subscript version, which messed things up a lot. I've moved it back. -- Cyrius| ✎ 20:12, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
To name it
Apophis is an extremely dark joke. It will get funnier - and scarier - if this thing comes to threaten Earth.
Subramanian
talk
01:08, 14 December 2005 (UTC)
Don't make the animation into a thumb, because it will screw it up. Wikipedia cannot properly scale a gif animation. — Cantus… ☎ 18:12, Dec 27, 2004 (UTC)
I don't think the animation belongs in the article. We could put in in the article on asteroid impact prediction, but certainly not here (especially this huge version). I think NASA has a more 2004MN4-specific animation which I would not mind having here, but preferebly they should soon release some sort of a photo. I will proceed to remove the image from this page if noone objects. - Ld | talk 18:18, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
I don't like the NASA animation at all, since it simplifies things to the point of unintelligibility. If you have a cone of virtual asteroids, then you cannot predict the future cone at all, unless you also have some information about the velocity vectors. AxelBoldt 21:39, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Hi Yaohua2000,
For the subscripts, we should use <sub>4</sub> and not a Unicode character. This is because for different asteroids the subscript number could be arbitrarily large, even in the hundreds. So for consistency we should use "sub" for subscripts. -- Curps 20:16, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
On my copy of Windows XP, it doesn't come out right: 1999AZ₀₁₂₃₄₅₆₇₈₉
In my font, only the 1 2 3 4 appears, the rest are blank boxes. And they're spaced one character apart, instead of appearing as "1234", they appear as "1 2 3 4". So in practice this doesn't work at all. -- Curps 20:32, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
The source of the page contains a line in its HTML header, that specified the charset as ISO 8859-1, why not UTF-8? Which contains the character 4 in subscript form, and can solve the naming problem. The character subscript four has a unicode of 0x2084. — Yaohua2000 20:17, 2004 Dec 27 (UTC)
The article states that the velocity of impact would be 12.59 km/s. How do we know this to 4 significant digits? Wouldn't it vary wildly based on the angle of impact, which is treated as unknown later in the article? -- Chris vLS 20:21, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
any impact is likely to occur in the Eastern Hemisphere (time zones UTC +3 to UTC -10)
Do you understand the decimal digits of the date (13.88 or 13.89) the same way as me? My result is that the impact would be around 9:07 pm Greenwich time. Did someone get the same conclusion? By the way, one can combine this with the simulation from which direction the asteroid hits, to determine which part of Earth will approximately be affected. -- Lumidek 21:08, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
The Times seems to have broadcasted new impact odds - any chance of an informed update?
Z.
It would be nice if someone could add info on the probable energy (in Megatonnes of TNT?)of the one that caused the extinguishing of the dinos.
Not a very good sign. -- Ixfd64 2005 July 8 01:36 (UTC)
Is it really appropriate to include this in the article? Ardric47 03:49, 2 February 2006 (UTC)
Images from Deep Impact show that impacts on Minor Plants happen, if anyone really needed proof.-- Jirate 14:54, July 17, 2005 (UTC)
User:Irate insists on including the following:
I think it should not be included as it is overemphasising an extremely remote possibility and gives further credit to the popular misconception that the solar system is full of asteroids that collide and change paths all the time as seen in many movies and games and whatnot. It's wrong. Space is mostly empty (even in the main asteroid belt) and that an asteroid should collide with a smaller object and measurably get its calculated trajectory for the next 100 years changed is extremely, extremely unlikely. And that's why it is not taken into consideration when dealing with impact solution and risk-modeling. I encourage Irate to try finding any scientific reference or document that makes the note that he wants to include here.
That asteroids have craters and traces of being hit in their 4.5 billion year history is of course true, but, first, most of these were formed in the early history of the solar system when collisions were more frequent, and second, most of these impacts were very minor and didn't change the asteroid path in any measurable degree for the following years. If a 1 m rock hits a 320 m asteroid, there will be a crater formed, but the asteroid will not get its immediate trajectory noticeably changed (we're talking about a 1:30.000.000 mass ratio). But the most important thing here is the fact that the collisions Irate wants to address are so rare and improbable that his note is just misleading to the reader. So I'm reverting him again now. Shanes 02:38, 18 July 2005 (UTC)
Apophis is no longer at 1 on the Torino scale. The meteor is now at 4. 12-8-2005
![]() | This page is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
The third paragraph needs to be rewritten as it's a copyright violation from NASA's press release. AxelBoldt 01:51, 25 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Remember, the information is not copyright, just the wording. Is the paragraph better now? Any other problems? It's not usually hard to improve government wording. -- Wetman 23:14, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
The following paragraph of mine was deleted with the comment "removing very strange commentary on the odds":
In addition the sentence "Experts expect that additional data will allow for 2004 MN4 to be re-rated as a level zero (no threat) object." was added, which repeats the above mistake. Maybe my explanation above was too dense, so I try first with an example:
Those two statements are contradictory; no rational person can believe in them at the same time. If I'm almost sure that the probability will be revised to 0%, then I'm almost sure that the Dow Jones will not be above 12000 on 1/2/2006. On the other hand, if my best guess is that it will happen with 40% probability, then I'm not almost sure, but only 60% sure, that further data will revise the predicted probability to 0%.
It's the same with NASA. If NASA expects the asteroid to hit us with probability 2.4% (latest estimate), then they don't expect "in all likelihood" to eventually eliminate the possibility of impact; they expect this to happen with 97.6% probability.
In fact, NASA noticed their mistake in the Dec 24 update to their report:
AxelBoldt 19:27, 25 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Here's another try. Consider the event E that the asteroid will hit us, and the event F that our odd estimates for impact will eventually reach 100%. I claim that (assuming our prediction capabilities are at all adequate) these two events E and F are equivalent: E happens if and only if F happens. The reason: if E happens, then a few days before the due date, we will be sure of the impact, so at that time our odd estimates will have reached 100%, meaning that F happens. On the other hand, if F happens, then at a certain point in time we will be certain that impact happens. This implies that impact does indeed happen, i.e. that E happens.
So E and F are equivalent events, and equivalent events have the same probability, no matter what. AxelBoldt 22:33, 25 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Axel is absolutely correct. NASA's press release is an exact mathematical statement, i.e., the probability is, exactly, in their opinion, such-and-such a number. There is no way to say that "it is likely that the odds will eventually become zero" without confusing people. There is one probability and that should be the referenced one. 64.123.58.14 01:35, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Cema: I think the original thesis is incorrect. Probability may be a function of time. In this case, as the celestial body comes closer to Earth and its trajectory can be better estimated, astronomers will be able to reevaluate the probability of an impact. The reevaluation is likely to reduce the probability, according to the experts. This is what the quoted NASA report means.
At the same time, I agree that the rhetorical trick was used and it was intended for the unaware public. Cema 03:40, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
I was trying to compute the magnitude of an earthquake that release an energy of 1600 megatons of TNT. A megaton of TNT has 4.2*1022 ergs, so we are looking at 6.72*1025 ergs. I used the formula
from http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/louie/class/100/magnitude.html to find the Moment to be 1.34 * 1030 dyne-cm. Now using the formula
from the same page, I arrive at a magnitude of
Using the other (and almost equivalent) formula
and solving for M gives a similar result.
This value for M seems to be way too high. Does anybody see the mistake? Could it really be a 9.4 magnitude earthquake? AxelBoldt 02:09, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
This is great! A minor ripple of near-quasi-panic for Armageddon. So get me this straight...this asteroid is seen as the biggest threat from space since those Torino scales were made up.
I'd guess it also depends on if you own real estate in impact the area. I advise selling short rather than waiting to see if you've developed an interesting new view of the coast.
The name was twice changed to the subscript notation, the second time with the comment "NASA may not use subscripts, but that is nevertheless the preferred notation". Is there any evidence for this preference, excepting obviously the preference of the person who made the change? I see that NEODyS at the University of Pisa also doesn't use subscripts, nor have I seen any newspaper articles that do so. AxelBoldt 07:17, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Ok, would it be agreeable to add something like "(often written as 2004 MN4)" in the intro paragraph, in order to tell our readers that the article is about the same thing that NASA talks about?
I guess there's no issue with search engines etc., since our title already uses the more common version of the name.
Also, the above asteroid naming conventions should be explained somewhere if they aren't already, maybe on asteroid, so that the reader can resolve the difference between common name and our name. AxelBoldt 20:15, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Yaohua2000 attempted to move this page to the subscript version, which messed things up a lot. I've moved it back. -- Cyrius| ✎ 20:12, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
To name it
Apophis is an extremely dark joke. It will get funnier - and scarier - if this thing comes to threaten Earth.
Subramanian
talk
01:08, 14 December 2005 (UTC)
Don't make the animation into a thumb, because it will screw it up. Wikipedia cannot properly scale a gif animation. — Cantus… ☎ 18:12, Dec 27, 2004 (UTC)
I don't think the animation belongs in the article. We could put in in the article on asteroid impact prediction, but certainly not here (especially this huge version). I think NASA has a more 2004MN4-specific animation which I would not mind having here, but preferebly they should soon release some sort of a photo. I will proceed to remove the image from this page if noone objects. - Ld | talk 18:18, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
I don't like the NASA animation at all, since it simplifies things to the point of unintelligibility. If you have a cone of virtual asteroids, then you cannot predict the future cone at all, unless you also have some information about the velocity vectors. AxelBoldt 21:39, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Hi Yaohua2000,
For the subscripts, we should use <sub>4</sub> and not a Unicode character. This is because for different asteroids the subscript number could be arbitrarily large, even in the hundreds. So for consistency we should use "sub" for subscripts. -- Curps 20:16, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
On my copy of Windows XP, it doesn't come out right: 1999AZ₀₁₂₃₄₅₆₇₈₉
In my font, only the 1 2 3 4 appears, the rest are blank boxes. And they're spaced one character apart, instead of appearing as "1234", they appear as "1 2 3 4". So in practice this doesn't work at all. -- Curps 20:32, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
The source of the page contains a line in its HTML header, that specified the charset as ISO 8859-1, why not UTF-8? Which contains the character 4 in subscript form, and can solve the naming problem. The character subscript four has a unicode of 0x2084. — Yaohua2000 20:17, 2004 Dec 27 (UTC)
The article states that the velocity of impact would be 12.59 km/s. How do we know this to 4 significant digits? Wouldn't it vary wildly based on the angle of impact, which is treated as unknown later in the article? -- Chris vLS 20:21, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
any impact is likely to occur in the Eastern Hemisphere (time zones UTC +3 to UTC -10)
Do you understand the decimal digits of the date (13.88 or 13.89) the same way as me? My result is that the impact would be around 9:07 pm Greenwich time. Did someone get the same conclusion? By the way, one can combine this with the simulation from which direction the asteroid hits, to determine which part of Earth will approximately be affected. -- Lumidek 21:08, 27 Dec 2004 (UTC)
The Times seems to have broadcasted new impact odds - any chance of an informed update?
Z.
It would be nice if someone could add info on the probable energy (in Megatonnes of TNT?)of the one that caused the extinguishing of the dinos.
Not a very good sign. -- Ixfd64 2005 July 8 01:36 (UTC)
Is it really appropriate to include this in the article? Ardric47 03:49, 2 February 2006 (UTC)
Images from Deep Impact show that impacts on Minor Plants happen, if anyone really needed proof.-- Jirate 14:54, July 17, 2005 (UTC)
User:Irate insists on including the following:
I think it should not be included as it is overemphasising an extremely remote possibility and gives further credit to the popular misconception that the solar system is full of asteroids that collide and change paths all the time as seen in many movies and games and whatnot. It's wrong. Space is mostly empty (even in the main asteroid belt) and that an asteroid should collide with a smaller object and measurably get its calculated trajectory for the next 100 years changed is extremely, extremely unlikely. And that's why it is not taken into consideration when dealing with impact solution and risk-modeling. I encourage Irate to try finding any scientific reference or document that makes the note that he wants to include here.
That asteroids have craters and traces of being hit in their 4.5 billion year history is of course true, but, first, most of these were formed in the early history of the solar system when collisions were more frequent, and second, most of these impacts were very minor and didn't change the asteroid path in any measurable degree for the following years. If a 1 m rock hits a 320 m asteroid, there will be a crater formed, but the asteroid will not get its immediate trajectory noticeably changed (we're talking about a 1:30.000.000 mass ratio). But the most important thing here is the fact that the collisions Irate wants to address are so rare and improbable that his note is just misleading to the reader. So I'm reverting him again now. Shanes 02:38, 18 July 2005 (UTC)
Apophis is no longer at 1 on the Torino scale. The meteor is now at 4. 12-8-2005