Academic collaboration focused on extreme meteorological events
World Weather Attribution is an academic collaboration studying
extreme event attribution, calculations of the impact of climate change on
extreme meteorological events such as heat waves, droughts, and storms. When an extreme event occurs, the project computes the likelihood that the occurrence, intensity, and duration of the event was due to climate change. The project specializes in producing reports rapidly, while news of the event is still fresh.[1][2][3]
The WWA response to an extreme meteorological event has three parts:[1][6]
Define the event: the geographic region affected, which weather parameters are of interest.
Gather historical data: weather data from the region from 1950 to the present. From this historical data statistics on normal and extreme weather patterns for the locale can be computed.
Simulate the event many times with computer models, comparing simulations with present-day greenhouse gas conditions against previous greenhouse-gas conditions.
Results are synthesized into a report and published first rapidly, then eventually through the scientific review process.
Example incidents
The following are examples of extreme cold, flood, heat, and drought events that have been studied by WWA.
An unusual weather pattern which froze vineyards and other crops in France in spring 2021[7] was 60% more likely due to climate change.[8]
A several year draught contributing to
famine in Madagascar in 2021 was likely not caused by climate change. WWA studied rainfall in southern Madagascar for the two-year period ending June 2021, concluding that the observed drought had a 1 in 135 chance of occurring, which was only slightly affected by climate change.[13][14]
Academic collaboration focused on extreme meteorological events
World Weather Attribution is an academic collaboration studying
extreme event attribution, calculations of the impact of climate change on
extreme meteorological events such as heat waves, droughts, and storms. When an extreme event occurs, the project computes the likelihood that the occurrence, intensity, and duration of the event was due to climate change. The project specializes in producing reports rapidly, while news of the event is still fresh.[1][2][3]
The WWA response to an extreme meteorological event has three parts:[1][6]
Define the event: the geographic region affected, which weather parameters are of interest.
Gather historical data: weather data from the region from 1950 to the present. From this historical data statistics on normal and extreme weather patterns for the locale can be computed.
Simulate the event many times with computer models, comparing simulations with present-day greenhouse gas conditions against previous greenhouse-gas conditions.
Results are synthesized into a report and published first rapidly, then eventually through the scientific review process.
Example incidents
The following are examples of extreme cold, flood, heat, and drought events that have been studied by WWA.
An unusual weather pattern which froze vineyards and other crops in France in spring 2021[7] was 60% more likely due to climate change.[8]
A several year draught contributing to
famine in Madagascar in 2021 was likely not caused by climate change. WWA studied rainfall in southern Madagascar for the two-year period ending June 2021, concluding that the observed drought had a 1 in 135 chance of occurring, which was only slightly affected by climate change.[13][14]