Suppose Magus throws two (fair) coins, hiding the result. Alea wants to know the probability of two heads being up. One in four, you say? Well, Magus is a bit clumsy. Through lack of dexterity, Alea managed to get a peep at one of the two coins. She knows the outcome for that one. What do you say, does this bit of information change the probability for Alea. Know that if you answer yes, according to the article you may be suffering from a delusion!!! -- Lambiam Talk 11:04, 29 May 2006 (UTC)
Suppose Magus throws two (fair) coins, hiding the result. Alea wants to know the probability of two heads being up. One in four, you say? Well, Magus is a bit clumsy. Through lack of dexterity, Alea managed to get a peep at one of the two coins. She knows the outcome for that one. What do you say, does this bit of information change the probability for Alea. Know that if you answer yes, according to the article you may be suffering from a delusion!!! -- Lambiam Talk 11:04, 29 May 2006 (UTC)