In response to your comment on the Emergency contraception talk page about overpopulation being propaganda:
I'm assuming you are aware of the Green Revolution which dramatically increased food production and is the basis for many arguments that overpopulation is no longer a concern. And indeed, the world has experienced huge grain surpluses for many decades, and engages in wasteful practices such as raising animals exclusively on grain. There are arguments the U.S. in particular has deliberately sabatoged the agriculture of developing countries in order to have a market to dump our surplus grain as food "aid".
But realize the Haber-Bosch process was integral to the Green Revolution. The Haber process is entirely and completely dependent on natural gas. Natural gas is a non-renewable resource; the natural gas fields in North America reached maximum lifetime production levels a few years ago and I believe we will see the global peak within my lifetime (I'm 24).
The Green Revolution is also heavily dependent on pesticides derived from petroleum. And on tractors run on petroleum products. Petroleum, like natural gas, is a non-renewable resource. United States oil production peaked in 1971 and I believe the global peak will occur in the next 5-15 years.
The implications of increasingly scarce (and therefore more expensive) energy resources are far-reaching; however, I believe food is going to be the biggest one. Many people in the peak oil community believe we have greatly exceeded the carrying capacity of a world without cheap oil, and therefore billions of people are going to starve post-peak. While I personally am not such a "doomer", I do not dismiss overpopulation so lightly as to call it "propaganda". Lyrl Talk Contribs 14:25, 23 November 2006 (UTC)
...Brazil's ethanol comes exclusively from sugarcane--not exactly a sustenance crop. As you point out, two things are true: there is currently an oversupply of food, and doomsday famines are the opinion of an extreme minority.
..inequitable distribution is the problem--for example, we have an oversupply of food and yet people are starving. "First world uses 50x resources of third word" --I find it easier just to use shorthand vernacular when typing the terms over and over and over--is an argument made regarding the environmental impact of population. As far as resource management goes, the US could spend 200,000 on contraceptive aid to Africa and 6 million 800,000 thousand on helping Africa develop its unused natural resources---instead of 7 million on Norplant (which is what USAID spent alone in 1999) in order to assist with the "overpopulation" problem, which is not a problem with numbers of people but with insufficient resources per person.
The "population bomb" has already been throughly discredited--birthrates for all countries are way down since the 70s, and population projections for dev. countries are low.
Again, you seem to have absorbed the "population bomb" alarmism, which has been discredited. Treating population only as a human-numbers problem and not also as a resources problem isn't humanitarian (or logical). As in example given re Norplant to Africa in 1999, contraceptive aid could and should be a small part of foreign aid to Africa--not the sole focus of foreign aid to Africa. (Do you realize how much more US spent on Norplant for Africa than on condoms or other healthcare for Africa during AIDS epidemic???)
That's a fundamental argument of pop-org critics--contraceptive aid should be part of healhcare aid--and the kinds of contraception being dropped on developing countries require healthcare.
Actually, one of the developments that came out of the 1994 Cairo meeting was that the more education girls have, the fewer children they have, and feminists argued that spending more money on girls' education imrpoved life overall for women in dev. countries, ddin't just lower birthrate. Puny amounts of money are spent on this, but at least lipservice is paid to the idea. Women not spending all their time in childcare--in developing countries, children are wealth; they contribute to household work and care for their parents (in absence of Social Security, etc). One of the arguments against harmful methods of contracepion is that in developing countries, where he health impact of say, depo provera is much more severe, the incapacitation of women affects the whole family/family economy. Indian women who work in factories agitate against injectables because the health effects render them incapable of working.
There are at least two main issues you seem to have missed: 1. it's not contraception, it's the amount spent on contraception in relation to everything else 2. it's the kind of contraception--dumping cheap contraception with heinous health effects is worse for developing countries than no contraception at all
Again, there's no need to spend 7 million dollars on Norplant (after it had known serious side effects in affluent people with healthcare access) in a country with a troubled population-to-resources ratio-- and far less on everything else. Cindery 05:40, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
Here is a brief summary of major points in recent population criticism, which was widely circulated in press: [2] I also recommend Betsy Hartmann's book, Reproductive Rights and Wrongs: The Global Politics of Population Control Cindery 10:13, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
I also advise reading criticism of the Green Revolution--many considered it a failure/it was never based on sustainable agriculture, but the surpluses it produced could have been produced by sustainable agriculture instead/ the surpluses resulted in debt for developing countries which caused hunger and starvation--but profit for American corps/ WHO's policy on Green was written by Cargill/etc. Here is recent paper from Foodfirst on the idea of having a second Green Rev (supported by American seed fertilizer companies) for Africa: [3] Cindery 11:03, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
First, Brazil's ethanol production cannot be replicated in non-tropical countries - the high rainfall levels and year-round growing season are not found in most of the world. Even if the U.S. had such a climate over a significant portion of its land, per-capita gasoline consumption in the United States would have to drop dramatically to be supported by such a program. Anyone who thinks U.S. suburban commuter life is going to be saved by ethanol is seriously misinformed. [4]
Second, ethanol only addresses the liquid fuels aspect of increasing scarcity of oil. It does not address the increasing scarcity of petroleum-based pesticides and natural gas-derived fertilizer, and the impact this will have on world food production.
Use of "high-yield" crops with lots of fertilizer and irrigation results in higher outputs than any other system. Returning to locally adapted crops increases yield in situations with less available fertilizer and less available irrigation - but the total output is still lower than what farmers are currently doing.
Lowered yields in countries like the U.S. and India may actually help some farmers in developing countries because there will not be an international surplus to dump on the market and artificially lower prices. While this is great for long-term sustainability, in the short-term there will be huge disruptions as consumers are forced to pay realistic amounts of money for food.
In 1955, food cost was one-third of the average U.S. family's expenses [5]. It is much lower today, around 13% [6]. When food prices rise to reflect the actual (non-subsidized, non-dumping) cost of growing food without inputs from non-renewable resources - it will make much more sense for many people to grow their own food. Food costs will rise beyond their 1955 levels (at which time fossil fuels had been used in farming for several decades). De-urbanization will occur, as seen in the two countries that have had their fossil fuel supply cut off - Cuba and North Korea. Cuba obviously managed its resources better in this situation than North Korea did.
Teaching farmers how to farm better is one thing. Attempting to turn a largely urban population into a largely farming population is entirely another. And it is the second problem that I am afraid of. Lyrl Talk Contribs 18:05, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
In response to 10 Reasons to Rethink ‘Overpopulation’:
The first argument seems to be that population is not the current cause of problems traditionally attributed to it.
Their second line of argument appears to be that the specter of overpopulation fosters the mindset behind wasteful and outright abusive practices in population control programs.
I feel like Food First Policy Brief No.12 actually supports my point of a coming food scarcity:
high-yielding varieties are actually high-feeding varieties that over time mine the... soils... of their natural fertility, requiring higher and higher applications of fertilizer. This eventually degrades those soils, leading to extensive erosion. Given the end of cheap oil, and the inevitable explosion of fertilizer costs, what kind of future does the Green Revolution really offer...? (bolding mine)
In the Punjab—home of the Green Revolution—nearly 80% of groundwater is now “overexploited or critical”. This draw down may be irreversible. Because most of these grains are exported, the hydrological result of the Green Revolution packages is the sacrifice of India’s ancient aquifers.
I really hope the model outlined in the rest of the paper is implemented. Both in developing countries, and also right here at home. I agree it is a wonderful example of better resource management that will help mitigate the problem of agricultural dependence on non-renewable resources, and also help rectify the social and environmental problems imposition of Green Revolution technology on the developing world has caused.
But it does not address at all the issue that worldwide agricultural productivity is going to decrease. Teaching farmers how to farm better (the main topic of this paper) is one thing. Taking a huge population of city folks and attempting to turn them into farmers - what is going to be required in a post-peak world - is entirely another. Lyrl Talk Contribs 18:05, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
Cindery 01:54, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
That Norplant, Depo Provera, Dalkon Shield were harmful is not a minority view. (I haven't mentioned hormonal contraception in general, or the pill--but the official position of the National Women's Health Network is against the birth control pill--that would be a minority view, but quite a significant and reliable one, with adherents. Note that Susan Wood is on the board of directors. Alice Wolfson's positon is that anything other than barrier methods as long as HIV is a risk is "criminal.") Cindery 02:53, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
..and: none of your sources are making the arguments you're making. They're all saying: conventional industrial farming--dependent on fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers-- is not sustainable, hence a transition has to be made. Better that it be made early enough; transition isn't happening fast enough. None argue that adequate food can't be produced after transition away from unsustainable farming. (They also note the waste inherent in food processing--7x the energy to produce a box of processed ceral than the cereal provides in energy; 3/4 of the food consumed by americans is processed food.) The only mention of population states that improving the economic status of women in developing countries is a good idea--not impoverishing them via the world bank and then dumping norplant on them while they have no healthcare. The point of the sources is: conventional industrialized farming and food proecessing is not sustainable. Farming and food processing have to change. The transition isn't happening fast enough, but can and must be made. The leap from that to: "an unremediable undersupply of food will occur, therefore developing countries are overpopulated" is not made. Even the "doomsday" scenario: a lapse in the transition-- due to irresponsibility of developed nations--will result in temporary food shortage, is a problem that will affect developed nations, not developing nations, as the developing nations already don't have adequate food. (Nor do a significant proportion of poor American households--so, a temporary food shortage cause by industrial farming practice will result in affluent people experiencing the hunger now only experienced by the poor--which is not an argument to pre-emptively get rid of more poor people, but to transition away from industrial/petrochemical farming faster for the benefit of the affluent. The alarmism seems to come in where suburban americans are horrified by the idea of no more Fruit Loops and Big Macs, no more DDT and joyriding in SUVs. Bummer!--but not for Africa and Bangladesh... Cindery 03:33, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
Conventional industrial farming is practiced almost everywhere in the world. Including in developing countries. Larger farmers in developing countries - who produce most of the food - use conventional industrial farming techniques. Large numbers of the smaller farmers have been driven out of business (point 5 in the Food First article).
Developing countries also lack the resources to teach the remaining small farmers how to transition away from dependence on non-renewable resources (point 6 in the Food First article), much less to reintroduce urbanized populations to farming. Food First states that it will take substantial policy and institutional changes, as well as strategic philanthropic support from visionaries who will dare to put their millions in the hands of progressive social movements. Millions of dollars needed to transition developing countries' farming practices. Not likely to be available while the affluent are mourning their Fruit Loops. And it's not like these countries won't be having other problems to deal with.
While the Food First paper cites a large number of promising programs, there is simply not enough time for them to be implemented. They will take decades to convert a significant portion of the developing world, and the agricultural oversupply is not going to last for decades.
While in the long term declining agricultural production of countries like the U.S. will benefit farmers and economies in developing countries, right now huge numbers of people are dependent on imported grain for survival. Food aid was given to over 96 million people in 2006, 50 million of them in Africa [7]. The U.S. has such an enormous food surplus that even with reduced production it will almost certainly be able to feed itself. But people in developing countries expecting to receive food aid will be out of luck.
A temporary food undersupply will occur. Developing nations will be less able to cope than developed ones. Lyrl Talk Contribs 16:02, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
Now you're crossing over the line into hubris. (You're not a Harvard or Oxford professor of demography...let alone Nostradamus--easy on the authoritative proclamations. :-) Perhaps also useful to keep in mind that Paul Erlich prophesied in 1968 that tens of millions of people would starve by the mid 1980s--and largely as a justification for compulsory population control. That's what I find disturbing--the historically persistent tendency towards half-baked alarmism (as a justification for prejudice and injustice). Keep in mind also that countries full of starving people exported food at the same time hunger was a problem during the "surplus", in order to meet debt obligations, and every cent in "food aid" that Africa gets is subtracted by US-backed World Bank policies. (Less than 1% of the US budget is foreign aid to anywhere...the "agricultural oversupply" has never supported Africa; US is holding exploitative debt that's worth far more than the "food aid" it sends...) Cindery 16:33, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
Re: "Limits"--all the neo-Malthusian scare books of the late 60s and early 70s have the credibility of Nixon--who also believed in them. Or maybe astrology. Somewhere between Nixon and astrology...
Re: "interesting comment"--I just don't read crackpot blogs. (Except maybe Gawker. That's more of a commerical tabloid than a crackpot blog, though, I guess...) Cindery 18:16, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
What's bad for Africa's economies is the US/World Bank/IMF--Sub-saharan Africa is a massive 272 billion dollars worse off because of "free" trade policies forced on it as a condition of receiving aid and debt relief: [9]
And since the US provides the least in foreign aid in relation to its GNP than any industrialized nation, I'm sure Japan and the EU would send food aid to Africa if all Americans felt as you do. Happily, that's not the case--polls show that 70% of American's are in favor of sending more aid to Africa. Maenwhile, actual development aid to Africa is needed in addition to food aid, as Tony Blair keeps telling Bush. (Paul Erlich shared your view, though, that food aid is a bad thing--in additon to advocating compulsory population control, he advocated letting "other people" starve.) Cindery 18:16, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
That's a straw man argument, and it's painfully obvious. I never said non-renewable ressources aren't going to run out, as you are aware. What's being disputed is several leaps in logic you have made to a view which no one shares. (A change from unsustainable farming will therefore result in a temporary food shortage, which will affect developing countries more than undeveloped countries, which therefore makes them overpopulated. Your self-righteosness and alarmism are also not shared by anyone. I think if you stubbornly hold an irrational extreme minority view, it may be time to agree to disagree--as long as you understand that, for the purposes of any article, your views are uncitable original reseach.) Cindery 04:56, 27 November 2006 (UTC)
Lyrl, I'm sorry, but you don't know enough about sustainable farming for it to be an interesting disussion for me to have for the sake of it--you seem to think the Green Revolution is "news," and you'd never heard very common criticism of GR viz sustainability, re fertilizers, soil damage etc. I'm also not going to discuss your "predictions" with you further--I tried to gently point out--"who shares this view, again?"--that it's an extreme minority view, and then I more firmly pointed out that you're not Nostradamus or a demographer, and that Erlich's "population bomb" alarmism about people starving is a recurrent phenomenon (people have been saying the world is overpopulated and doom is nigh since the Romans) and that it has been both abused as an argument for population control and thoroughly discredited. I'm sorry you thought it was "hurtful" that I pointed out that Erlich advocated letting people starve--I found your comment that most countries "should have been transitioned off of food aid" very disturbing, especially in combination with your shared conviction with Erlich that "overpopulation" exists. You are, again, making untenable leaps in logic to come to your view of "therefore, overpopulation," and unlike the late 60s and early 70s, you're not even in a crowd of others with the wrong idea. I find that scary and sad, as I have always thought of you as mostly rational. Cindery 01:25, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
Cindery 11:56, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
This statement caught my eye: dumping cheap contraception with heinous health effects is worse for developing countries than no contraception at all. I was curious if you had a source that developed that argument further? Lyrl Talk Contribs 18:05, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
..it seems to have gone completely over your head that Ehrenreich is reaming them with heavy sarcasm for making such irrational and hypocritical pronouncements, and exposing the hypocrisies/irrationalities which population controllers openly stated before Cairo Consensus. (The rightwing nutjob who was high up at FHI, in favor of quinacrine, and wrote the endless screed about how the Catholic Church is threatening US national security by opposing contraception was the last person to publicy make that argument, which was answered with utter contempt. As in, if the possibility of dying in childbirth is so high, and we must prevent it by any means necessary, wouldn't it be more expedient to just kill everyone to prevent maternal mortality?)
You seem to have overlooked several very important observations from the report on Albania:
1. the main problem in Albania is mismanagment/disorganization of aid money;the money is managed so badly that available money is not being used:
This can be applied to the management of aid to Albania. For example, aid organizations pledged $4.28 billion from 1991 to 2003, but only $2.9 billion, or 65 percent of the committed amount was used.
“Good governance is a condition for guaranteeing opportunities to have social and economic impact,” said Minister Malaj. “[There is] much to do in this context, ensuring more public revenue from the economy, and domestic revenue. Partnership is at the centre of all the policies, realized by government institutions, but also all stakeholders. There is a need to have a broader debate on development policies, more transparency.”
“International donors are not coordinated among themselves,” said Mayor Rama. “If MDG eight is the development of Global Partnerships – the premise is that those who are better off should help those who are worse off - with greater coordination, the energies and financial resources given to Albania could have much bigger results. It is indispensable that we have shared common goals.”
2. The "quick wins" are Albanian-specific, and secondary to using available money:
In Albania, the resources required to halve the number of people living in poverty amounts to $21.14 billion for the period of 2000 to 2015. Albania received $342 million in ODA for 2003. At this level of assistance, the ODA would have to increase to 5.5 times the current annual amount and be sustained for 12 years to achieve the MDGs by 2015.
However, if governance and donor coordination are improved and Albanian-relevant “quick wins” implemented, the amount needed to achieve the MDGs will be reduced.
3. The report does not make the argument that contraception is a higher value than health care, it only states two areas of healthcare in Albania which could be expanded, and includes contraception in "sexual and reproductive health information and services," which is a category which includes all maternal/child health programs funded by UNFPA, i.e., all their "safe motherhood" programs--it makes the opposite assertion you're making--"quick wins" involves safe motherhood and access to contraception, not contraception over safe motherhood.
“Quick Wins” are actions that save lives at modest cost, says the Report. Recommendations that are relevant to Albania include:
Cindery 05:03, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
What you said, verbatim, is: when funds are insufficient to provide all needed services, the best health improvements per money spent may be gained by increased contraceptives--which disturbed me because I recognized it as 1) pre-Cairo justifications for contraceptive dumping 2) a bias which persists in low-grade media and US highschool social studies textbooks. The specific context for your statement was contraception vs. adequate healthcare regarding maternal mortality. So yes, we are arguing against each other, unless you'd like to retract that. Contraception can be used to lower maternal mortality caused by abortion. Safe motherhood/other healthcare can be used to lower maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth. Contraception is not advocated to lower maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth--the causes of maternal mortality from childbirth and pregnancy are not childbirth and pregnancy itself, they are inadequate nutrition and prenatal care, etc. You also made the statement in the general context of population and development. So no, given poverty--"insufficent funds to provide all needed services"--contraception does not give the best per-dollar health improvement. That implies that eliminating people is the solution to eliminating poverty. As you can see from UN strategy for Albania, the solution to poverty is resources.
(Albania--like some other Eastern European countries, and some parts of the former Soviet Union--has free abortion on demand, and provides less contraception; abortion is used as contraception. The most common form of abortion in Albania is D&C--which has a higher mortality rate than contraception or suction abortion. So providing more contraception to Albania could result in less abortion mortalities, and reduce the use of abortion as contraception. The rationale for providing more contraception to Albania is not to reduce maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth, but to reduce mortality from abortion.)
Re: certain forms of contraception are "worse than none at all"--yes, it's obvious that the Dalkon Shield was worse than nothing at all--if contraception kills, it's worse than nothing; it decreases rather than increases quality of life for the user, obviously--but also her family and her society. The use of Depo by doctors accompanied by soldiers in East Timor was worse than nothing at all, according to the Yale Genocide Project. (And Mojo: [12]
As the Hampshire program on pop-dev points out, there has been an over-emphasis on the pop-orgs providing Norplant and Depo in developing countries. Norplant and Depo have more serious side effects and risks than other forms of contraception--side effects and risks which are more severe for women without sufficent nutrition or access to healthcare. They also do not protect against HIV. The emphasis on them reflects population control, not "humanitarian" reproductive freedom: driving down population through provider-controlled methods, no matter what it does to women's health. Cindery 17:34, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
There's a big difference between contraception as a choice in total healthcare, and maternal mortality from childbirth and pregnancy as the justification for bad contracpetion on a "humanitarian" argument. See analysis of Mumford's argument-for-quinacrine: [15]
No, there is a black and white answer: giving contraception which can kill to healthy people because they might die from something else is not ok. As I tried to explain, if you hold that view, you are in an extreme minority with Mumford; not even the pop orgs would openly side with you post-Cairo. (For Dalkon, as Ehrenreich pointed out, we will never know ho many women died in developing countries--we can only guess based on the number of unsterilized Shields sent.)
Ideas for reform of international family planning orgs should not be conflated with the orgs themselves--i.e., the possibilty that they could distribute better contraceptives, and advocate a true range of oprions does not mean that they can't be criticized for distributing bad contraceptives, in alliance with pharmaceutical orgs they took bribes from, to further the political intersests of countries which funded them. As you point out, they advocate against the withdrawl method (which in combination with any kind of FA is not a bad method. It is however, impossible to profit from and not provider-controlled. It's also already practiced, which gives the lie to the need for more contraceptive "acceptors" strictly on the basis of how many use of chemical/hormonal methods.) Cindery 05:29, 27 November 2006 (UTC)
Lyrl, you don't seem to have read the bioethical analysis of Mumford 's completely untenable position(Not to mention that you're undeterred by Ehrenreich and the UN..) In the case of vaccines there's no alternative; in the case of the Dalkon Shield there were nothing but alternatives. It's a morally reprehensible position to argue that a form of contraception which killed people, in a more lethal form--unsterilized--was justified because 500,000 women a year die from pregnancy or childbirth which can be prevented by nutrition and prenatal care. I'm not going to repeat this again, and frankly, I've lost a lot of respect for you. Cindery 00:59, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
I'm losing patience with the just-barely-past-undergraduate semantic argumentativeness--vaccines to prevent specific diseases are not comparable to birth control to prevent maternal mortality. You don't seem to have read the bioethical analysis of Mumford whereby it is clearly explained that the pregnancy would have to be unwanted--birth control does not prevent maternal mortality from a wanted pregnancy. Birth control as a public health measure to reduce maternal mortality from unwanted pregnancies is a byproduct of birth control use--only nutrition and medical care prevent maternal mortality from pregnancies- in- progress. First, you cited Ehrenreich's denouncement of pharma reps who defended sending the Shield, then you claimed "Were the number of deaths from Dalkon Shield greater than the number of lives saved by it? "--which is morally reprehensible. An obscene number of unsterilized Dalkon Shields were sent to third world countries after sterilized shields were known to maim and kill. (500,000 women a year in 2005 die from pregnancy/childbirth. More than 500,000 unsterilized shields were sent in 70s, if that helps you figure it out.) They were sent to reduce the population and make money for the pharma company, not to reduce maternal mortality. The post-facto justification was a phony "humanitarian" argument, which is untenable: maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth is only preventable by nutrition and medical care. Birth control offers reproductive choice, and may as a byproduct prevent maternal mortality from unwanted pregnancy before it occurs. There are many kinds of birth control which do not kill or adversely affect women's health, therefore no method of birth control which kills is justifiable, especially not in a form--unsterilized--which is guaranteed to kill in large numbers. Cindery 12:21, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
An article from China Daily: For the first time in China's history, grain prices are rising not due to a poor harvest or increasing demand but because of soaring international oil prices. To feed the nation's increasing appetite for energy, a huge amount of capital including from overseas is chasing corn, soy and wheat for biofuel production; and pushing up prices to record highs. Lyrl Talk Contribs 03:48, 7 December 2006 (UTC)
In response to your comment on the Emergency contraception talk page about overpopulation being propaganda:
I'm assuming you are aware of the Green Revolution which dramatically increased food production and is the basis for many arguments that overpopulation is no longer a concern. And indeed, the world has experienced huge grain surpluses for many decades, and engages in wasteful practices such as raising animals exclusively on grain. There are arguments the U.S. in particular has deliberately sabatoged the agriculture of developing countries in order to have a market to dump our surplus grain as food "aid".
But realize the Haber-Bosch process was integral to the Green Revolution. The Haber process is entirely and completely dependent on natural gas. Natural gas is a non-renewable resource; the natural gas fields in North America reached maximum lifetime production levels a few years ago and I believe we will see the global peak within my lifetime (I'm 24).
The Green Revolution is also heavily dependent on pesticides derived from petroleum. And on tractors run on petroleum products. Petroleum, like natural gas, is a non-renewable resource. United States oil production peaked in 1971 and I believe the global peak will occur in the next 5-15 years.
The implications of increasingly scarce (and therefore more expensive) energy resources are far-reaching; however, I believe food is going to be the biggest one. Many people in the peak oil community believe we have greatly exceeded the carrying capacity of a world without cheap oil, and therefore billions of people are going to starve post-peak. While I personally am not such a "doomer", I do not dismiss overpopulation so lightly as to call it "propaganda". Lyrl Talk Contribs 14:25, 23 November 2006 (UTC)
...Brazil's ethanol comes exclusively from sugarcane--not exactly a sustenance crop. As you point out, two things are true: there is currently an oversupply of food, and doomsday famines are the opinion of an extreme minority.
..inequitable distribution is the problem--for example, we have an oversupply of food and yet people are starving. "First world uses 50x resources of third word" --I find it easier just to use shorthand vernacular when typing the terms over and over and over--is an argument made regarding the environmental impact of population. As far as resource management goes, the US could spend 200,000 on contraceptive aid to Africa and 6 million 800,000 thousand on helping Africa develop its unused natural resources---instead of 7 million on Norplant (which is what USAID spent alone in 1999) in order to assist with the "overpopulation" problem, which is not a problem with numbers of people but with insufficient resources per person.
The "population bomb" has already been throughly discredited--birthrates for all countries are way down since the 70s, and population projections for dev. countries are low.
Again, you seem to have absorbed the "population bomb" alarmism, which has been discredited. Treating population only as a human-numbers problem and not also as a resources problem isn't humanitarian (or logical). As in example given re Norplant to Africa in 1999, contraceptive aid could and should be a small part of foreign aid to Africa--not the sole focus of foreign aid to Africa. (Do you realize how much more US spent on Norplant for Africa than on condoms or other healthcare for Africa during AIDS epidemic???)
That's a fundamental argument of pop-org critics--contraceptive aid should be part of healhcare aid--and the kinds of contraception being dropped on developing countries require healthcare.
Actually, one of the developments that came out of the 1994 Cairo meeting was that the more education girls have, the fewer children they have, and feminists argued that spending more money on girls' education imrpoved life overall for women in dev. countries, ddin't just lower birthrate. Puny amounts of money are spent on this, but at least lipservice is paid to the idea. Women not spending all their time in childcare--in developing countries, children are wealth; they contribute to household work and care for their parents (in absence of Social Security, etc). One of the arguments against harmful methods of contracepion is that in developing countries, where he health impact of say, depo provera is much more severe, the incapacitation of women affects the whole family/family economy. Indian women who work in factories agitate against injectables because the health effects render them incapable of working.
There are at least two main issues you seem to have missed: 1. it's not contraception, it's the amount spent on contraception in relation to everything else 2. it's the kind of contraception--dumping cheap contraception with heinous health effects is worse for developing countries than no contraception at all
Again, there's no need to spend 7 million dollars on Norplant (after it had known serious side effects in affluent people with healthcare access) in a country with a troubled population-to-resources ratio-- and far less on everything else. Cindery 05:40, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
Here is a brief summary of major points in recent population criticism, which was widely circulated in press: [2] I also recommend Betsy Hartmann's book, Reproductive Rights and Wrongs: The Global Politics of Population Control Cindery 10:13, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
I also advise reading criticism of the Green Revolution--many considered it a failure/it was never based on sustainable agriculture, but the surpluses it produced could have been produced by sustainable agriculture instead/ the surpluses resulted in debt for developing countries which caused hunger and starvation--but profit for American corps/ WHO's policy on Green was written by Cargill/etc. Here is recent paper from Foodfirst on the idea of having a second Green Rev (supported by American seed fertilizer companies) for Africa: [3] Cindery 11:03, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
First, Brazil's ethanol production cannot be replicated in non-tropical countries - the high rainfall levels and year-round growing season are not found in most of the world. Even if the U.S. had such a climate over a significant portion of its land, per-capita gasoline consumption in the United States would have to drop dramatically to be supported by such a program. Anyone who thinks U.S. suburban commuter life is going to be saved by ethanol is seriously misinformed. [4]
Second, ethanol only addresses the liquid fuels aspect of increasing scarcity of oil. It does not address the increasing scarcity of petroleum-based pesticides and natural gas-derived fertilizer, and the impact this will have on world food production.
Use of "high-yield" crops with lots of fertilizer and irrigation results in higher outputs than any other system. Returning to locally adapted crops increases yield in situations with less available fertilizer and less available irrigation - but the total output is still lower than what farmers are currently doing.
Lowered yields in countries like the U.S. and India may actually help some farmers in developing countries because there will not be an international surplus to dump on the market and artificially lower prices. While this is great for long-term sustainability, in the short-term there will be huge disruptions as consumers are forced to pay realistic amounts of money for food.
In 1955, food cost was one-third of the average U.S. family's expenses [5]. It is much lower today, around 13% [6]. When food prices rise to reflect the actual (non-subsidized, non-dumping) cost of growing food without inputs from non-renewable resources - it will make much more sense for many people to grow their own food. Food costs will rise beyond their 1955 levels (at which time fossil fuels had been used in farming for several decades). De-urbanization will occur, as seen in the two countries that have had their fossil fuel supply cut off - Cuba and North Korea. Cuba obviously managed its resources better in this situation than North Korea did.
Teaching farmers how to farm better is one thing. Attempting to turn a largely urban population into a largely farming population is entirely another. And it is the second problem that I am afraid of. Lyrl Talk Contribs 18:05, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
In response to 10 Reasons to Rethink ‘Overpopulation’:
The first argument seems to be that population is not the current cause of problems traditionally attributed to it.
Their second line of argument appears to be that the specter of overpopulation fosters the mindset behind wasteful and outright abusive practices in population control programs.
I feel like Food First Policy Brief No.12 actually supports my point of a coming food scarcity:
high-yielding varieties are actually high-feeding varieties that over time mine the... soils... of their natural fertility, requiring higher and higher applications of fertilizer. This eventually degrades those soils, leading to extensive erosion. Given the end of cheap oil, and the inevitable explosion of fertilizer costs, what kind of future does the Green Revolution really offer...? (bolding mine)
In the Punjab—home of the Green Revolution—nearly 80% of groundwater is now “overexploited or critical”. This draw down may be irreversible. Because most of these grains are exported, the hydrological result of the Green Revolution packages is the sacrifice of India’s ancient aquifers.
I really hope the model outlined in the rest of the paper is implemented. Both in developing countries, and also right here at home. I agree it is a wonderful example of better resource management that will help mitigate the problem of agricultural dependence on non-renewable resources, and also help rectify the social and environmental problems imposition of Green Revolution technology on the developing world has caused.
But it does not address at all the issue that worldwide agricultural productivity is going to decrease. Teaching farmers how to farm better (the main topic of this paper) is one thing. Taking a huge population of city folks and attempting to turn them into farmers - what is going to be required in a post-peak world - is entirely another. Lyrl Talk Contribs 18:05, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
Cindery 01:54, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
That Norplant, Depo Provera, Dalkon Shield were harmful is not a minority view. (I haven't mentioned hormonal contraception in general, or the pill--but the official position of the National Women's Health Network is against the birth control pill--that would be a minority view, but quite a significant and reliable one, with adherents. Note that Susan Wood is on the board of directors. Alice Wolfson's positon is that anything other than barrier methods as long as HIV is a risk is "criminal.") Cindery 02:53, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
..and: none of your sources are making the arguments you're making. They're all saying: conventional industrial farming--dependent on fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers-- is not sustainable, hence a transition has to be made. Better that it be made early enough; transition isn't happening fast enough. None argue that adequate food can't be produced after transition away from unsustainable farming. (They also note the waste inherent in food processing--7x the energy to produce a box of processed ceral than the cereal provides in energy; 3/4 of the food consumed by americans is processed food.) The only mention of population states that improving the economic status of women in developing countries is a good idea--not impoverishing them via the world bank and then dumping norplant on them while they have no healthcare. The point of the sources is: conventional industrialized farming and food proecessing is not sustainable. Farming and food processing have to change. The transition isn't happening fast enough, but can and must be made. The leap from that to: "an unremediable undersupply of food will occur, therefore developing countries are overpopulated" is not made. Even the "doomsday" scenario: a lapse in the transition-- due to irresponsibility of developed nations--will result in temporary food shortage, is a problem that will affect developed nations, not developing nations, as the developing nations already don't have adequate food. (Nor do a significant proportion of poor American households--so, a temporary food shortage cause by industrial farming practice will result in affluent people experiencing the hunger now only experienced by the poor--which is not an argument to pre-emptively get rid of more poor people, but to transition away from industrial/petrochemical farming faster for the benefit of the affluent. The alarmism seems to come in where suburban americans are horrified by the idea of no more Fruit Loops and Big Macs, no more DDT and joyriding in SUVs. Bummer!--but not for Africa and Bangladesh... Cindery 03:33, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
Conventional industrial farming is practiced almost everywhere in the world. Including in developing countries. Larger farmers in developing countries - who produce most of the food - use conventional industrial farming techniques. Large numbers of the smaller farmers have been driven out of business (point 5 in the Food First article).
Developing countries also lack the resources to teach the remaining small farmers how to transition away from dependence on non-renewable resources (point 6 in the Food First article), much less to reintroduce urbanized populations to farming. Food First states that it will take substantial policy and institutional changes, as well as strategic philanthropic support from visionaries who will dare to put their millions in the hands of progressive social movements. Millions of dollars needed to transition developing countries' farming practices. Not likely to be available while the affluent are mourning their Fruit Loops. And it's not like these countries won't be having other problems to deal with.
While the Food First paper cites a large number of promising programs, there is simply not enough time for them to be implemented. They will take decades to convert a significant portion of the developing world, and the agricultural oversupply is not going to last for decades.
While in the long term declining agricultural production of countries like the U.S. will benefit farmers and economies in developing countries, right now huge numbers of people are dependent on imported grain for survival. Food aid was given to over 96 million people in 2006, 50 million of them in Africa [7]. The U.S. has such an enormous food surplus that even with reduced production it will almost certainly be able to feed itself. But people in developing countries expecting to receive food aid will be out of luck.
A temporary food undersupply will occur. Developing nations will be less able to cope than developed ones. Lyrl Talk Contribs 16:02, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
Now you're crossing over the line into hubris. (You're not a Harvard or Oxford professor of demography...let alone Nostradamus--easy on the authoritative proclamations. :-) Perhaps also useful to keep in mind that Paul Erlich prophesied in 1968 that tens of millions of people would starve by the mid 1980s--and largely as a justification for compulsory population control. That's what I find disturbing--the historically persistent tendency towards half-baked alarmism (as a justification for prejudice and injustice). Keep in mind also that countries full of starving people exported food at the same time hunger was a problem during the "surplus", in order to meet debt obligations, and every cent in "food aid" that Africa gets is subtracted by US-backed World Bank policies. (Less than 1% of the US budget is foreign aid to anywhere...the "agricultural oversupply" has never supported Africa; US is holding exploitative debt that's worth far more than the "food aid" it sends...) Cindery 16:33, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
Re: "Limits"--all the neo-Malthusian scare books of the late 60s and early 70s have the credibility of Nixon--who also believed in them. Or maybe astrology. Somewhere between Nixon and astrology...
Re: "interesting comment"--I just don't read crackpot blogs. (Except maybe Gawker. That's more of a commerical tabloid than a crackpot blog, though, I guess...) Cindery 18:16, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
What's bad for Africa's economies is the US/World Bank/IMF--Sub-saharan Africa is a massive 272 billion dollars worse off because of "free" trade policies forced on it as a condition of receiving aid and debt relief: [9]
And since the US provides the least in foreign aid in relation to its GNP than any industrialized nation, I'm sure Japan and the EU would send food aid to Africa if all Americans felt as you do. Happily, that's not the case--polls show that 70% of American's are in favor of sending more aid to Africa. Maenwhile, actual development aid to Africa is needed in addition to food aid, as Tony Blair keeps telling Bush. (Paul Erlich shared your view, though, that food aid is a bad thing--in additon to advocating compulsory population control, he advocated letting "other people" starve.) Cindery 18:16, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
That's a straw man argument, and it's painfully obvious. I never said non-renewable ressources aren't going to run out, as you are aware. What's being disputed is several leaps in logic you have made to a view which no one shares. (A change from unsustainable farming will therefore result in a temporary food shortage, which will affect developing countries more than undeveloped countries, which therefore makes them overpopulated. Your self-righteosness and alarmism are also not shared by anyone. I think if you stubbornly hold an irrational extreme minority view, it may be time to agree to disagree--as long as you understand that, for the purposes of any article, your views are uncitable original reseach.) Cindery 04:56, 27 November 2006 (UTC)
Lyrl, I'm sorry, but you don't know enough about sustainable farming for it to be an interesting disussion for me to have for the sake of it--you seem to think the Green Revolution is "news," and you'd never heard very common criticism of GR viz sustainability, re fertilizers, soil damage etc. I'm also not going to discuss your "predictions" with you further--I tried to gently point out--"who shares this view, again?"--that it's an extreme minority view, and then I more firmly pointed out that you're not Nostradamus or a demographer, and that Erlich's "population bomb" alarmism about people starving is a recurrent phenomenon (people have been saying the world is overpopulated and doom is nigh since the Romans) and that it has been both abused as an argument for population control and thoroughly discredited. I'm sorry you thought it was "hurtful" that I pointed out that Erlich advocated letting people starve--I found your comment that most countries "should have been transitioned off of food aid" very disturbing, especially in combination with your shared conviction with Erlich that "overpopulation" exists. You are, again, making untenable leaps in logic to come to your view of "therefore, overpopulation," and unlike the late 60s and early 70s, you're not even in a crowd of others with the wrong idea. I find that scary and sad, as I have always thought of you as mostly rational. Cindery 01:25, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
Cindery 11:56, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
This statement caught my eye: dumping cheap contraception with heinous health effects is worse for developing countries than no contraception at all. I was curious if you had a source that developed that argument further? Lyrl Talk Contribs 18:05, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
..it seems to have gone completely over your head that Ehrenreich is reaming them with heavy sarcasm for making such irrational and hypocritical pronouncements, and exposing the hypocrisies/irrationalities which population controllers openly stated before Cairo Consensus. (The rightwing nutjob who was high up at FHI, in favor of quinacrine, and wrote the endless screed about how the Catholic Church is threatening US national security by opposing contraception was the last person to publicy make that argument, which was answered with utter contempt. As in, if the possibility of dying in childbirth is so high, and we must prevent it by any means necessary, wouldn't it be more expedient to just kill everyone to prevent maternal mortality?)
You seem to have overlooked several very important observations from the report on Albania:
1. the main problem in Albania is mismanagment/disorganization of aid money;the money is managed so badly that available money is not being used:
This can be applied to the management of aid to Albania. For example, aid organizations pledged $4.28 billion from 1991 to 2003, but only $2.9 billion, or 65 percent of the committed amount was used.
“Good governance is a condition for guaranteeing opportunities to have social and economic impact,” said Minister Malaj. “[There is] much to do in this context, ensuring more public revenue from the economy, and domestic revenue. Partnership is at the centre of all the policies, realized by government institutions, but also all stakeholders. There is a need to have a broader debate on development policies, more transparency.”
“International donors are not coordinated among themselves,” said Mayor Rama. “If MDG eight is the development of Global Partnerships – the premise is that those who are better off should help those who are worse off - with greater coordination, the energies and financial resources given to Albania could have much bigger results. It is indispensable that we have shared common goals.”
2. The "quick wins" are Albanian-specific, and secondary to using available money:
In Albania, the resources required to halve the number of people living in poverty amounts to $21.14 billion for the period of 2000 to 2015. Albania received $342 million in ODA for 2003. At this level of assistance, the ODA would have to increase to 5.5 times the current annual amount and be sustained for 12 years to achieve the MDGs by 2015.
However, if governance and donor coordination are improved and Albanian-relevant “quick wins” implemented, the amount needed to achieve the MDGs will be reduced.
3. The report does not make the argument that contraception is a higher value than health care, it only states two areas of healthcare in Albania which could be expanded, and includes contraception in "sexual and reproductive health information and services," which is a category which includes all maternal/child health programs funded by UNFPA, i.e., all their "safe motherhood" programs--it makes the opposite assertion you're making--"quick wins" involves safe motherhood and access to contraception, not contraception over safe motherhood.
“Quick Wins” are actions that save lives at modest cost, says the Report. Recommendations that are relevant to Albania include:
Cindery 05:03, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
What you said, verbatim, is: when funds are insufficient to provide all needed services, the best health improvements per money spent may be gained by increased contraceptives--which disturbed me because I recognized it as 1) pre-Cairo justifications for contraceptive dumping 2) a bias which persists in low-grade media and US highschool social studies textbooks. The specific context for your statement was contraception vs. adequate healthcare regarding maternal mortality. So yes, we are arguing against each other, unless you'd like to retract that. Contraception can be used to lower maternal mortality caused by abortion. Safe motherhood/other healthcare can be used to lower maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth. Contraception is not advocated to lower maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth--the causes of maternal mortality from childbirth and pregnancy are not childbirth and pregnancy itself, they are inadequate nutrition and prenatal care, etc. You also made the statement in the general context of population and development. So no, given poverty--"insufficent funds to provide all needed services"--contraception does not give the best per-dollar health improvement. That implies that eliminating people is the solution to eliminating poverty. As you can see from UN strategy for Albania, the solution to poverty is resources.
(Albania--like some other Eastern European countries, and some parts of the former Soviet Union--has free abortion on demand, and provides less contraception; abortion is used as contraception. The most common form of abortion in Albania is D&C--which has a higher mortality rate than contraception or suction abortion. So providing more contraception to Albania could result in less abortion mortalities, and reduce the use of abortion as contraception. The rationale for providing more contraception to Albania is not to reduce maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth, but to reduce mortality from abortion.)
Re: certain forms of contraception are "worse than none at all"--yes, it's obvious that the Dalkon Shield was worse than nothing at all--if contraception kills, it's worse than nothing; it decreases rather than increases quality of life for the user, obviously--but also her family and her society. The use of Depo by doctors accompanied by soldiers in East Timor was worse than nothing at all, according to the Yale Genocide Project. (And Mojo: [12]
As the Hampshire program on pop-dev points out, there has been an over-emphasis on the pop-orgs providing Norplant and Depo in developing countries. Norplant and Depo have more serious side effects and risks than other forms of contraception--side effects and risks which are more severe for women without sufficent nutrition or access to healthcare. They also do not protect against HIV. The emphasis on them reflects population control, not "humanitarian" reproductive freedom: driving down population through provider-controlled methods, no matter what it does to women's health. Cindery 17:34, 26 November 2006 (UTC)
There's a big difference between contraception as a choice in total healthcare, and maternal mortality from childbirth and pregnancy as the justification for bad contracpetion on a "humanitarian" argument. See analysis of Mumford's argument-for-quinacrine: [15]
No, there is a black and white answer: giving contraception which can kill to healthy people because they might die from something else is not ok. As I tried to explain, if you hold that view, you are in an extreme minority with Mumford; not even the pop orgs would openly side with you post-Cairo. (For Dalkon, as Ehrenreich pointed out, we will never know ho many women died in developing countries--we can only guess based on the number of unsterilized Shields sent.)
Ideas for reform of international family planning orgs should not be conflated with the orgs themselves--i.e., the possibilty that they could distribute better contraceptives, and advocate a true range of oprions does not mean that they can't be criticized for distributing bad contraceptives, in alliance with pharmaceutical orgs they took bribes from, to further the political intersests of countries which funded them. As you point out, they advocate against the withdrawl method (which in combination with any kind of FA is not a bad method. It is however, impossible to profit from and not provider-controlled. It's also already practiced, which gives the lie to the need for more contraceptive "acceptors" strictly on the basis of how many use of chemical/hormonal methods.) Cindery 05:29, 27 November 2006 (UTC)
Lyrl, you don't seem to have read the bioethical analysis of Mumford 's completely untenable position(Not to mention that you're undeterred by Ehrenreich and the UN..) In the case of vaccines there's no alternative; in the case of the Dalkon Shield there were nothing but alternatives. It's a morally reprehensible position to argue that a form of contraception which killed people, in a more lethal form--unsterilized--was justified because 500,000 women a year die from pregnancy or childbirth which can be prevented by nutrition and prenatal care. I'm not going to repeat this again, and frankly, I've lost a lot of respect for you. Cindery 00:59, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
I'm losing patience with the just-barely-past-undergraduate semantic argumentativeness--vaccines to prevent specific diseases are not comparable to birth control to prevent maternal mortality. You don't seem to have read the bioethical analysis of Mumford whereby it is clearly explained that the pregnancy would have to be unwanted--birth control does not prevent maternal mortality from a wanted pregnancy. Birth control as a public health measure to reduce maternal mortality from unwanted pregnancies is a byproduct of birth control use--only nutrition and medical care prevent maternal mortality from pregnancies- in- progress. First, you cited Ehrenreich's denouncement of pharma reps who defended sending the Shield, then you claimed "Were the number of deaths from Dalkon Shield greater than the number of lives saved by it? "--which is morally reprehensible. An obscene number of unsterilized Dalkon Shields were sent to third world countries after sterilized shields were known to maim and kill. (500,000 women a year in 2005 die from pregnancy/childbirth. More than 500,000 unsterilized shields were sent in 70s, if that helps you figure it out.) They were sent to reduce the population and make money for the pharma company, not to reduce maternal mortality. The post-facto justification was a phony "humanitarian" argument, which is untenable: maternal mortality from pregnancy and childbirth is only preventable by nutrition and medical care. Birth control offers reproductive choice, and may as a byproduct prevent maternal mortality from unwanted pregnancy before it occurs. There are many kinds of birth control which do not kill or adversely affect women's health, therefore no method of birth control which kills is justifiable, especially not in a form--unsterilized--which is guaranteed to kill in large numbers. Cindery 12:21, 28 November 2006 (UTC)
An article from China Daily: For the first time in China's history, grain prices are rising not due to a poor harvest or increasing demand but because of soaring international oil prices. To feed the nation's increasing appetite for energy, a huge amount of capital including from overseas is chasing corn, soy and wheat for biofuel production; and pushing up prices to record highs. Lyrl Talk Contribs 03:48, 7 December 2006 (UTC)