From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The analysis can be illustrated in terms of the equally likely events that the player has initially chosen the car, goat A, or goat B ( Economist 1999):

1.
Host reveals
either goat


Player picks car
(probability 1/3)
Switching loses.
2.
Host must
reveal Goat B

Player picks Goat A
(probability 1/3)
Switching wins.
3.
Host must
reveal Goat A

Player picks Goat B
(probability 1/3)
Switching wins.
The player has an equal chance of initially selecting the car, Goat A, or Goat B. Switching results in a win 2/3 of the time.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The analysis can be illustrated in terms of the equally likely events that the player has initially chosen the car, goat A, or goat B ( Economist 1999):

1.
Host reveals
either goat


Player picks car
(probability 1/3)
Switching loses.
2.
Host must
reveal Goat B

Player picks Goat A
(probability 1/3)
Switching wins.
3.
Host must
reveal Goat A

Player picks Goat B
(probability 1/3)
Switching wins.
The player has an equal chance of initially selecting the car, Goat A, or Goat B. Switching results in a win 2/3 of the time.

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