During the 2004 U.S. presidential election, there were some problems with the election process in Ohio, including but not limited to missing/uncounted votes, machine malfunction, machine shortage, machine mis-voting, and anomalous statistical discrepancies in vote tabulations such as more votes than voters. Statistical analysis of the demographic distribution of these problems and which candidate they favored have led some to believe that there was a slight possibility of coordinated election fraud throughout the state for both parties.
There were numerous reports of machine shortages and malfunctions, the plurality of which came from Cuyahoga County. [1] Precincts in some counties reported receiving less than half of the voting machines requested. [2]
141 long line incidents were reported in Cuyahoga County, Ohio [3]. This amounts to an average of 0.098 per precinct, over eight times the average outside of Cuyahoga. Likewise, reported long line incidents in Cuyahoga is more than eight times as high per person as outside of Cuyahoga. Voter turnout in Cuyahoga compared with the rest of the state was 4.5% less than usual. Cuyahoga County has an inverse relationship between voter turnout and support for Kerry. This means that, where support for Kerry was high, the voters didn't turnout, for whatever reason. This could possibly be explained by vote suppression, (such as significant machine shortages in black neighborhoods) but more analysis is necessary. [4]
Detailed analyses indicate that reports of malfunctioning voting machines were tightly clustered in black neighborhoods, further exacerbating machine shortages. Of the 82 precints for which voters reported that one or more voting machines were not working, the vast majority were in neighborhoods where over 75% of the population were black, while non-working machines were reported in only five precincts where less than 5% of the population were black. In one precinct 7 of 17 voting machines were not working. In another, 3 of 9 voting machines were not working. In yet another 2 of 3 voting machines were not working. In two precincts, all the machines were not working for a significant period during the day. In addition to reports of machines not working at all, there were multiple reports of voting machines that would not accept a vote for the presidential race, multiple reports of voting machines which highlighted a vote for Bush when Kerry's button was pressed, and multiple reports of voting machines that indicated that a vote for Bush had been registered on the summary screen, despite repeated attempts to select Kerry. [5]
54 incidents have been reported in Franklin County, Ohio, an avg of .065 per precinct. Franklin County has sparked particular attention because the long lines were disproportionately in poor and African-American communities, and largely due to machine shortages in those precincts, in possible violation of the Equal Protection Amendment.
The pattern of machine malfunctions identified in Cuyahoga county also occurs in Franklin County. Reported incidents of malfunctioning voting machines are tightly clustered in neighborhoods where a large percentage of the population is black. 24 of 27 precints in which malfunctioning voting machines were reported were precincts in which the majority of voters voted for Kerry. [6]
File:Franklin actual votes per machine.gif
File:Franklin county registered voters.gif
*The vertical scale of the second graph is twice that of the first.
Voting machines in Franklin County were well over capacity, averaging 184 recorded votes per machine. The amount the machines in a precinct were over capacity (measured by "active", not registered voters) was directly proportional to the percentage of voters in that precinct voting Kerry. As the graph below shows, this led to suppressed turnout in Democratic precincts. [7]
Voter turnout in Franklin County was expected to be significantly higher than normal, but was in fact significantly lower than normal.
Voter Turnout | |||
Franklin County |
The rest of Ohio |
Difference | |
1992 | 75.03% | 75.62% | 0.60% |
1996 | 64.81% | 68.14% | 3.33% |
2000 | 61.27% | 63.88% | 2.62% |
2004 | 60.95% | 70.91% | 9.96% |
Although low population precincts were allocated relatively many voting machines and were well within the limits of processing capacity, high-population centers often were not "Is there inner-city election suppression in Franklin County, Ohio?":
Anecdotal reports can be found at freepress.org.
With 80 of 88 counties reporting, there are 135,149 provisional ballots; according to Ruth Coulter at Moritz College, this should be presumed to be the accurate and complete list for those 80 counties. If the same proportion of votes went provisional statewide, the remaining counties will produce 19,252 provisional ballots. Even if all of those ballots are found to be valid votes (and Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell has repeatedly noted that in 2000, 90 percent of provisional ballots were eventually counted), they're not remotely skewed enough toward the heavily Democratic counties to provide the margin Kerry would need. By my math, if every one of my projected 154,401 provisional ballots is counted, Kerry would need to win over 88 percent. That's not going to happen. [11]
Provisional ballot counting in Ohio begins Saturday November 13 and by law must be finished in 4 days. The number of provisional ballots is greater than the vote difference between Kerry and Bush. Most of the challenges were made by Bush supporters, presumably the provisional ballots may NOT be 51%-49% but instead be lopsided. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell had issued a ruling disqualifying a provisional ballot if date of birth is not written on the envelope [12], but ultimately, that ruling was cancelled. [13]
One third of 24,472 provisional ballots cast in Cuyahoga County, Ohio ( 8,099) were thrown out. The norm in Ohio is 9%. On November 27th, People for the American Way filed a lawsuit seeking to have provisional ballots re-examined. [14] [15] The suit demands that provisional ballots be accepted regardless of the precinct they were filed in, in accordance with Ohio state law and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and that registration be checked against voter registration cards, rather than just electronic voting lists.
In October, a former employee of Election Systems and Software (ES&S), the company that provides the voting system in Auglaize County, was allegedly on the main computer that is used to create the ballot and compile election results, which would go against election protocol. [17]
Read about Ohio election law in regards to recounts here.
Read House of Representatives Judicial Committee formal enquiry letter to Ohio Secretary of State Dec. 2 2004 here.
investigation | statewide recount | recusal of Blackwell | seating of Ohio electors | legal action | |
Organizations | |||||
GAO | systemic | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Black Box Voting | underway | endorsed | Freedom of Information Act requests | ||
Common Cause | collecting info | supported | petition | Headed by Cliff Arnebeck | |
Alliance for Democracy | ended | supported | endorse | Headed by Cliff Arnebeck | |
Move On | petition | endorsed | endorsed | ||
People for the American Way | endorsed | endorsed | president thinks prosecution should be considered | provisional ballots | |
CASE Ohio | endorsed | endorsed | endorsed, organized protest | opposed, organized protest | |
National Voter Rights Institute | endorsed | Representing Cobb & Badnarik | |||
U.S. House | report released | considered objecting | |||
People | |||||
David Cobb | endorsed | completed | speaking at protest | early recount, recount deadline, move case to federal court, against Blackwell | |
Michael Badnarik | endorsed | completed | supporting protest | early recount, recount deadline, move case to federal court, against Blackwell | |
Dennis Kucinich | endorsed | endorsed | |||
Jesse Jackson (interview, video, 18 Mb) | endorsed | endorsed, "set aside" current results | endorsed, removal | ||
Greg Palast | endorsed | endorsed | |||
John Kerry | ended | minor role | petition, provisional ballots, join cobb/badnarik suit | ||
* Cliff Arnebeck & Bob Fitrakis, representing a group of voters | ended | endorsed | Moss v. Bush |
*Cliff Arnebeck is the Chair of Common Cause Ohio and a Co-Chair and attorney for the Alliance for Democracy.
Some Democrats on the U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary have requested an investigation by the GAO, asked Kenneth Blackwell for an explanation, and scheduled a Public Congressional Forum. The unofficial meetings are currently scheduled for Wednesday, December 8th @ 10:00am [18]. Among the many potential attendees and invitees are Jesse Jackson, Cliff Arnebeck, Ken Blackwell and Warren Mitofsky.
Mitofsky, Blackwell declined to attend.
Forum proceedings:
Source and summary of the forum proceedings [19]
Press releases:
Letters:
Led by Common Cause and The Alliance for Democracy [34], both David Cobb ( Green Party) and Michael Badnarik ( Libertarian Party) will be filing for official recounts in Ohio. Black Box Voting is also launching a fraud audit in Ohio. Accuses Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell of failing to properly account for provisional ballots, and refusing to allow citizens to see the pollbooks.
In Ohio a recount is automatic for statewide election if difference in the vote is within 0.25% of the total votes cast.
For a recount in the presidential race, this is probably about a 19,000-vote margin between Kerry and Bush.
Only a losing candidate can request a recount. A recount may always be requested regardless of the closeness of the race. The recount is requested by the losing candidate. The request for a recount must be made within 5 days of the official announcement of the results by the Secretary of State.
The fee for a recount is set by each Board of Elections and may be between $5 and $10 per precinct. You can limit the recount to specific precincts. The cost is deposited by the person making the recount request at the time of the application based on the number of precincts requested to be recounted. The entire recount and contest procedures are outlined at ORC 3515. [35]
After statements by Dennis White of the Ohio Democratic Party indicating that John Kerry would "participate" in the Ohio recount effort [36], the Kerry/Edwards campaign has filed a brief to formally join in legal proceedings to seek a recount of all Ohio votes for President [37], [38], initiated by David Cobb ( Green) and Michael Badnarik ( Libertarian). This was necessary for the recount to have any practical effect since a federal judge had ruled the recount need not be expedited since the original plaintiffs (Cobb and Bardnarik) could not be positively affected by its outcome.
A parallel recount effort is being headed by Cliff Arnebeck of the Alliance for Democracy, representing a group of voters. On Wednesday Dec. 8th, he is expected to ask the courts to set aside the results and declare John Kerry the winner of Ohio, on the basis of widespread systematic election fraud that altered the outcome of the election, which he claims to have sufficient evidence to prove. Ohio law permits the state Supreme Court to review elections in such cases. [39]
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During the 2004 U.S. presidential election, there were some problems with the election process in Ohio, including but not limited to missing/uncounted votes, machine malfunction, machine shortage, machine mis-voting, and anomalous statistical discrepancies in vote tabulations such as more votes than voters. Statistical analysis of the demographic distribution of these problems and which candidate they favored have led some to believe that there was a slight possibility of coordinated election fraud throughout the state for both parties.
There were numerous reports of machine shortages and malfunctions, the plurality of which came from Cuyahoga County. [1] Precincts in some counties reported receiving less than half of the voting machines requested. [2]
141 long line incidents were reported in Cuyahoga County, Ohio [3]. This amounts to an average of 0.098 per precinct, over eight times the average outside of Cuyahoga. Likewise, reported long line incidents in Cuyahoga is more than eight times as high per person as outside of Cuyahoga. Voter turnout in Cuyahoga compared with the rest of the state was 4.5% less than usual. Cuyahoga County has an inverse relationship between voter turnout and support for Kerry. This means that, where support for Kerry was high, the voters didn't turnout, for whatever reason. This could possibly be explained by vote suppression, (such as significant machine shortages in black neighborhoods) but more analysis is necessary. [4]
Detailed analyses indicate that reports of malfunctioning voting machines were tightly clustered in black neighborhoods, further exacerbating machine shortages. Of the 82 precints for which voters reported that one or more voting machines were not working, the vast majority were in neighborhoods where over 75% of the population were black, while non-working machines were reported in only five precincts where less than 5% of the population were black. In one precinct 7 of 17 voting machines were not working. In another, 3 of 9 voting machines were not working. In yet another 2 of 3 voting machines were not working. In two precincts, all the machines were not working for a significant period during the day. In addition to reports of machines not working at all, there were multiple reports of voting machines that would not accept a vote for the presidential race, multiple reports of voting machines which highlighted a vote for Bush when Kerry's button was pressed, and multiple reports of voting machines that indicated that a vote for Bush had been registered on the summary screen, despite repeated attempts to select Kerry. [5]
54 incidents have been reported in Franklin County, Ohio, an avg of .065 per precinct. Franklin County has sparked particular attention because the long lines were disproportionately in poor and African-American communities, and largely due to machine shortages in those precincts, in possible violation of the Equal Protection Amendment.
The pattern of machine malfunctions identified in Cuyahoga county also occurs in Franklin County. Reported incidents of malfunctioning voting machines are tightly clustered in neighborhoods where a large percentage of the population is black. 24 of 27 precints in which malfunctioning voting machines were reported were precincts in which the majority of voters voted for Kerry. [6]
File:Franklin actual votes per machine.gif
File:Franklin county registered voters.gif
*The vertical scale of the second graph is twice that of the first.
Voting machines in Franklin County were well over capacity, averaging 184 recorded votes per machine. The amount the machines in a precinct were over capacity (measured by "active", not registered voters) was directly proportional to the percentage of voters in that precinct voting Kerry. As the graph below shows, this led to suppressed turnout in Democratic precincts. [7]
Voter turnout in Franklin County was expected to be significantly higher than normal, but was in fact significantly lower than normal.
Voter Turnout | |||
Franklin County |
The rest of Ohio |
Difference | |
1992 | 75.03% | 75.62% | 0.60% |
1996 | 64.81% | 68.14% | 3.33% |
2000 | 61.27% | 63.88% | 2.62% |
2004 | 60.95% | 70.91% | 9.96% |
Although low population precincts were allocated relatively many voting machines and were well within the limits of processing capacity, high-population centers often were not "Is there inner-city election suppression in Franklin County, Ohio?":
Anecdotal reports can be found at freepress.org.
With 80 of 88 counties reporting, there are 135,149 provisional ballots; according to Ruth Coulter at Moritz College, this should be presumed to be the accurate and complete list for those 80 counties. If the same proportion of votes went provisional statewide, the remaining counties will produce 19,252 provisional ballots. Even if all of those ballots are found to be valid votes (and Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell has repeatedly noted that in 2000, 90 percent of provisional ballots were eventually counted), they're not remotely skewed enough toward the heavily Democratic counties to provide the margin Kerry would need. By my math, if every one of my projected 154,401 provisional ballots is counted, Kerry would need to win over 88 percent. That's not going to happen. [11]
Provisional ballot counting in Ohio begins Saturday November 13 and by law must be finished in 4 days. The number of provisional ballots is greater than the vote difference between Kerry and Bush. Most of the challenges were made by Bush supporters, presumably the provisional ballots may NOT be 51%-49% but instead be lopsided. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell had issued a ruling disqualifying a provisional ballot if date of birth is not written on the envelope [12], but ultimately, that ruling was cancelled. [13]
One third of 24,472 provisional ballots cast in Cuyahoga County, Ohio ( 8,099) were thrown out. The norm in Ohio is 9%. On November 27th, People for the American Way filed a lawsuit seeking to have provisional ballots re-examined. [14] [15] The suit demands that provisional ballots be accepted regardless of the precinct they were filed in, in accordance with Ohio state law and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and that registration be checked against voter registration cards, rather than just electronic voting lists.
In October, a former employee of Election Systems and Software (ES&S), the company that provides the voting system in Auglaize County, was allegedly on the main computer that is used to create the ballot and compile election results, which would go against election protocol. [17]
Read about Ohio election law in regards to recounts here.
Read House of Representatives Judicial Committee formal enquiry letter to Ohio Secretary of State Dec. 2 2004 here.
investigation | statewide recount | recusal of Blackwell | seating of Ohio electors | legal action | |
Organizations | |||||
GAO | systemic | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Black Box Voting | underway | endorsed | Freedom of Information Act requests | ||
Common Cause | collecting info | supported | petition | Headed by Cliff Arnebeck | |
Alliance for Democracy | ended | supported | endorse | Headed by Cliff Arnebeck | |
Move On | petition | endorsed | endorsed | ||
People for the American Way | endorsed | endorsed | president thinks prosecution should be considered | provisional ballots | |
CASE Ohio | endorsed | endorsed | endorsed, organized protest | opposed, organized protest | |
National Voter Rights Institute | endorsed | Representing Cobb & Badnarik | |||
U.S. House | report released | considered objecting | |||
People | |||||
David Cobb | endorsed | completed | speaking at protest | early recount, recount deadline, move case to federal court, against Blackwell | |
Michael Badnarik | endorsed | completed | supporting protest | early recount, recount deadline, move case to federal court, against Blackwell | |
Dennis Kucinich | endorsed | endorsed | |||
Jesse Jackson (interview, video, 18 Mb) | endorsed | endorsed, "set aside" current results | endorsed, removal | ||
Greg Palast | endorsed | endorsed | |||
John Kerry | ended | minor role | petition, provisional ballots, join cobb/badnarik suit | ||
* Cliff Arnebeck & Bob Fitrakis, representing a group of voters | ended | endorsed | Moss v. Bush |
*Cliff Arnebeck is the Chair of Common Cause Ohio and a Co-Chair and attorney for the Alliance for Democracy.
Some Democrats on the U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary have requested an investigation by the GAO, asked Kenneth Blackwell for an explanation, and scheduled a Public Congressional Forum. The unofficial meetings are currently scheduled for Wednesday, December 8th @ 10:00am [18]. Among the many potential attendees and invitees are Jesse Jackson, Cliff Arnebeck, Ken Blackwell and Warren Mitofsky.
Mitofsky, Blackwell declined to attend.
Forum proceedings:
Source and summary of the forum proceedings [19]
Press releases:
Letters:
Led by Common Cause and The Alliance for Democracy [34], both David Cobb ( Green Party) and Michael Badnarik ( Libertarian Party) will be filing for official recounts in Ohio. Black Box Voting is also launching a fraud audit in Ohio. Accuses Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell of failing to properly account for provisional ballots, and refusing to allow citizens to see the pollbooks.
In Ohio a recount is automatic for statewide election if difference in the vote is within 0.25% of the total votes cast.
For a recount in the presidential race, this is probably about a 19,000-vote margin between Kerry and Bush.
Only a losing candidate can request a recount. A recount may always be requested regardless of the closeness of the race. The recount is requested by the losing candidate. The request for a recount must be made within 5 days of the official announcement of the results by the Secretary of State.
The fee for a recount is set by each Board of Elections and may be between $5 and $10 per precinct. You can limit the recount to specific precincts. The cost is deposited by the person making the recount request at the time of the application based on the number of precincts requested to be recounted. The entire recount and contest procedures are outlined at ORC 3515. [35]
After statements by Dennis White of the Ohio Democratic Party indicating that John Kerry would "participate" in the Ohio recount effort [36], the Kerry/Edwards campaign has filed a brief to formally join in legal proceedings to seek a recount of all Ohio votes for President [37], [38], initiated by David Cobb ( Green) and Michael Badnarik ( Libertarian). This was necessary for the recount to have any practical effect since a federal judge had ruled the recount need not be expedited since the original plaintiffs (Cobb and Bardnarik) could not be positively affected by its outcome.
A parallel recount effort is being headed by Cliff Arnebeck of the Alliance for Democracy, representing a group of voters. On Wednesday Dec. 8th, he is expected to ask the courts to set aside the results and declare John Kerry the winner of Ohio, on the basis of widespread systematic election fraud that altered the outcome of the election, which he claims to have sufficient evidence to prove. Ohio law permits the state Supreme Court to review elections in such cases. [39]
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