From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
My election forecasts!


U.S. elections, 2018     

My prediction for the 116th U.S. Senate!

In the 2018 election cycle the United States Senate has been generally seen as the less disputed chamber of the Congress, due to the several races dictated by the map. Democratic incumbents are 26 (all running), while Republicans defend 9 seats in the Senate (with 3 retirements). The majority in the Senate has been usually forecast to probably be Republican, because of the polls and the states in which the People will vote, 10 out of 33 won by President Trump in 2016. Since July I am therefore predicting a Republican majority in the Senate.

State Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Senator Party Senator Party Senator Party
Arizona Jeff Flake R Martha McSally R Kyrsten Sinema D
California Dianne Feinstein D Dianne Feinstein D Dianne Feinstein D
Connecticut Chris Murphy D Chris Murphy D Chris Murphy D
Delaware Tom Carper D Tom Carper D Tom Carper D
Florida Bill Nelson D Bill Nelson D Rick Scott R
Hawaii Mazie Hirono D Mazie Hirono D Mazie Hirono D
Indiana Joe Donnelly D Joe Donnelly D Mike Braun R
Maine Angus King I Angus King I Angus King I
Maryland Ben Cardin D Ben Cardin D Ben Cardin D
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren D Elizabeth Warren D Elizabeth Warren D
Michigan Debbie Stabenow D Debbie Stabenow D Debbie Stabenow D
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar D Amy Klobuchar D Amy Klobuchar D
Minnesota (s.) Tina Smith D Tina Smith D Tina Smith D
Mississippi Roger Wicker R Roger Wicker R Roger Wicker R
Mississippi (s.) Cindy Hyde-Smith R Cindy Hyde-Smith R Cindy Hyde-Smith R
Missouri Claire McCaskill D Claire McCaskill D Josh Hawley R
Montana Jon Tester D Jon Tester D Jon Tester D
Nebraska Deb Fisher R Deb Fisher R Deb Fisher R
Nevada Dean Heller R Dean Heller R Jackie Rosen D
New Jersey Bob Menendez D Bob Menendez D Bob Menendez D
New Mexico Martin Heinrich D Martin Heinrich D Martin Heinrich D
New York Kirsten Gillibrand D Kirsten Gillibrand D Kirsten Gillibrand D
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp D Kevin Cramer R Kevin Cramer R
Ohio Sherrod Brown D Sherrod Brown D Sherrod Brown D
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Jr. D Bob Casey Jr. D Bob Casey Jr. D
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse D Sheldon Whitehouse D Sheldon Whitehouse D
Tennessee Bob Corker R Marsha Blackburn R Marsha Blackburn R
Texas Ted Cruz R Ted Cruz R Ted Cruz R
Utah Orrin Hatch R Mitt Romney R Mitt Romney R
Vermont Bernie Sanders I Bernie Sanders I Bernie Sanders I
Virginia Tim Kaine D Tim Kaine D Tim Kaine D
Washington Maria Cantwell D Maria Cantwell D Maria Cantwell D
West Virginia Joe Manchin D Joe Manchin D Joe Manchin D
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin D Tammy Baldwin D Tammy Baldwin D
Wyoming John Barasso R John Barasso R John Barasso R
United States Republican 51–49 Republican 52–48 Republican 53–47
My prediction for the 116th U.S. House of Representatives!

The House of Representatives is expected by many observers to go with a Democratic majority in this cycle. Republicans hold a majority since January 2011, after re-capturing it in the 2010 midterm elections. Currently there are 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 7 vacancies; Democrats need a 25 net gain to win the House and arrive to 218. Usually it is said that the party of the incumbent President loses the majority in this chamber during his first midterm election, but this is true only for the last two Democratic Presidents, and not for the last two Republican Presidents. In addition economical data have improved (lower unemployment, lower taxation, lower poverty), polls don't look so thrilling, and the approval rating of the President is at a record-high level, even higher than when he was inaugurated. Since July I am therefore predicting a Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

State Rep. Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Majority # Majority PVI Majority #
Alabama 7 Republican 6–1 Republican R+14 Republican 6–1
Alaska 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+9 Republican 1–0
Arizona 9 Republican 5–4 Democratic R+5 Democratic 5–4
Arkansas 4 Republican 4–0 Republican R+15 Republican 4–0
California 53 Democratic 39–14 Democratic D+12 Democratic 46–7
Colorado 7 Republican 4–3 Republican D+1 Democratic 4–3
Connecticut 5 Democratic 5–0 Democratic D+6 Democratic 5–0
Delaware 1 Democratic 1–0 Democratic D+6 Democratic 1–0
Florida 27 Republican 16–11 Republican R+2 Republican 14–13
Georgia 14 Republican 10–4 Republican R+5 Republican 9–5
Hawaii 2 Democratic 2–0 Democratic D+18 Democratic 2–0
Idaho 2 Republican 2–0 Republican R+19 Republican 2–0
Illinois 18 Democratic 11–7 Democratic D+7 Democratic 13–5
Indiana 9 Republican 7–2 Republican R+9 Republican 7–2
Iowa 4 Republican 3–1 Split R+3 Democratic 3–1
Kansas 4 Republican 4–0 Republican R+13 Republican 3–1
Kentucky 6 Republican 5–1 Republican R+15 Republican 5–1
Louisiana 6 Republican 5–1 Republican R+11 Republican 5–1
Maine 2 Split 1–1 Split D+3 Democratic 2–0
Maryland 8 Democratic 7–1 Democratic D+12 Democratic 7–1
Massachusetts 9 Democratic 9–0 Democratic D+12 Democratic 9–0
Michigan 14 Republican 9–5 Republican D+1 Split 7–7
Minnesota 8 Democratic 5–3 Democratic D+1 Democratic 5–3
Mississippi 4 Republican 3–1 Republican R+9 Republican 3–1
Missouri 8 Republican 6–2 Republican R+9 Republican 6–2
Montana 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+11 Republican 1–0
Nebraska 3 Republican 3–0 Republican R+14 Republican 3–0
Nevada 4 Democratic 3–1 Democratic D+1 Democratic 3–1
New Hampshire 2 Democratic 2–0 Democratic EVEN Democratic 2–0
New Jersey 12 Democratic 7–5 Democratic D+7 Democratic 11–1
New Mexico 3 Democratic 2–1 Democratic D+3 Democratic 2–1
New York 27 Democratic 18–9 Democratic D+11 Democratic 21–6
North Carolina 13 Republican 10–3 Republican R+3 Republican 9–3
North Dakota 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+17 Republican 1–0
Ohio 16 Republican 12–4 Republican R+3 Republican 12–4
Oklahoma 5 Republican 5–0 Republican R+20 Republican 4–1
Oregon 5 Democratic 4–1 Democratic D+5 Democratic 4–1
Pennsylvania 18 Republican 13–5 Republican EVEN Split 9–9
Rhode Island 2 Democratic 2–0 Democratic D+10 Democratic 2–0
South Carolina 7 Republican 6–1 Republican R+8 Republican 5–2
South Dakota 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+14 Republican 1–0
Tennessee 9 Republican 7–2 Republican R+14 Republican 7–2
Texas 36 Republican 25–11 Republican R+8 Republican 23–13
Utah 4 Republican 4–0 Republican R+20 Republican 3–1
Vermont 1 Democratic 1–0 Democratic D+15 Democratic 1–0
Virginia 11 Republican 7–4 Republican D+1 Democratic 7–4
Washington 10 Democratic 6–4 Democratic D+7 Democratic 7–3
West Virginia 3 Republican 3–0 Republican R+19 Republican 3–0
Wisconsin 8 Republican 5–3 Republican EVEN Republican 5–3
Wyoming 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+25 Republican 1–0
United States 435 Republican 240–195 Republican EVEN Democratic 235–199


U.S. elections, 2020     

My prediction for the 59th presidential election!

Probably will go for President Trump, confirming the tradition of incumbent Presidents that get re-elected. Therefore I am predicting a Republican President—destined in any case to obtain a smaller amount of electoral votes than in the previous election.

State V. Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Winner % Winner Rate Winner %
Alabama 9 Donald Trump 62% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Alaska 3 Donald Trump 51% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Arizona 11 Donald Trump 49% Donald Trump Lean Joe Biden
Arkansas 6 Donald Trump 61% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
California 55 Hillary Clinton 62% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Colorado 9 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Connecticut 7 Hillary Clinton 55% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Delaware 3 Hillary Clinton 53% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
D.C. 3 Hillary Clinton 90% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Florida 29 Donald Trump 49% Donald Trump Lean Donald Trump
Georgia 16 Donald Trump 51% Donald Trump Likely Joe Biden
Hawaii 4 Hillary Clinton 62% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Idaho 4 Donald Trump 59% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Illinois 20 Hillary Clinton 56% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Indiana 11 Donald Trump 57% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Iowa 6 Donald Trump 51% Donald Trump Likely Donald Trump
Kansas 6 Donald Trump 57% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Kentucky 8 Donald Trump 58% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Louisiana 8 Donald Trump 58% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Maine 2+2 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Maryland 10 Hillary Clinton 60% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Massachusetts 11 Hillary Clinton 60% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Michigan 16 Donald Trump 48% Joe Biden Lean Joe Biden
Minnesota 10 Hillary Clinton 46% Joe Biden Likely Joe Biden
Mississippi 6 Donald Trump 58% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Missouri 10 Donald Trump 57% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Montana 3 Donald Trump 56% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Nebraska 2+3 Donald Trump 59% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Nevada 6 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New Hampshire 4 Hillary Clinton 47% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New Jersey 14 Hillary Clinton 55% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New Mexico 5 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New York 29 Hillary Clinton 59% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
North Carolina 15 Donald Trump 50% Donald Trump Lean Donald Trump
North Dakota 3 Donald Trump 63% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Ohio 18 Donald Trump 52% Donald Trump Likely Donald Trump
Oklahoma 7 Donald Trump 65% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Oregon 7 Hillary Clinton 50% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Pennsylvania 20 Donald Trump 48% Donald Trump Lean Joe Biden
Rhode Island 4 Hillary Clinton 54% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
South Carolina 9 Donald Trump 55% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
South Dakota 3 Donald Trump 62% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Tennessee 11 Donald Trump 61% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Texas 38 Donald Trump 52% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Utah 6 Donald Trump 46% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Vermont 3 Hillary Clinton 57% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Virginia 13 Hillary Clinton 50% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Washington 12 Hillary Clinton 53% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
West Virginia 5 Donald Trump 69% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Wisconsin 10 Donald Trump 47% Joe Biden Lean Joe Biden
Wyoming 3 Donald Trump 67% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
United States 538 Donald Trump 306–232 Donald Trump 280–258 Joe Biden 306–232
My prediction for the 117th U.S. Senate!

The Senate will probably remain in Republican hands, due to the States in which the People will vote and the many Republican pick-ups in 2018. Therefore I am predicting a Republican majority in the Senate.

State Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Senator % Senator Rate Senator %
Alabama Doug Jones 50% Tommy Tuberville Likely Tommy Tuberville
Alaska Dan Sullivan 48% Dan Sullivan Safe Dan Sullivan
Arizona (s.) Martha McSally app. John Kelly Lean John Kelly
Arkansas Tom Cotton 57% Tom Cotton Safe Tom Cotton
Colorado Cory Gardner 48% John Hickenlooper Lean John Hickenlooper
Delaware Chris Coons 56% Chris Coons Safe Chris Coons
Georgia David Perdue 53% David Perdue Likely Jon Ossoff
Georgia (s.) Kelly Loeffler app. Kelly Loeffler Likely Raphael Warnock
Idaho Jim Risch 65% Jim Risch Safe Jim Risch
Illinois Dick Durbin 54% Dick Durbin Safe Dick Durbin
Iowa Joni Ernst 52% Joni Ernst Lean Joni Ernst
Kansas Pat Roberts 53% Roger Marshall Safe Roger Marshall
Kentucky Mitch McConnell 56% Mitch McConnell Safe Mitch McConnell
Louisiana Bill Cassidy 56% Bill Cassidy Safe Bill Cassidy
Maine Susan Collins 69% Sara Gideon Lean Susan Collins
Massachusetts Ed Markey 62% Ed Markey Safe Ed Markey
Michigan Gary Peters 55% Gary Peters Likely Gary Peters
Minnesota Tina Smith 53% Tina Smith Safe Tina Smith
Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith 54% Cindy Hyde-Smith Safe Cindy Hyde-Smith
Montana Steve Daines 58% Steve Daines Lean Steve Daines
Nebraska Ben Sasse 64% Ben Sasse Safe Ben Sasse
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 52% Jeanne Shaheen Safe Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey Cory Booker 56% Cory Booker Safe Cory Booker
New Mexico Tom Udall 56% Ben Ray Luján Safe Ben Ray Luján
North Carolina Tom Tillis 49% Tom Tillis Lean Tom Tillis
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe 68% Jim Inhofe Safe Jim Inhofe
Oregon Jeff Merkley 56% Jeff Merkley Safe Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island Jack Reed 71% Jack Reed Safe Jack Reed
South Carolina Lindsey Graham 54% Lindsey Graham Safe Lindsey Graham
South Dakota Mike Rounds 50% Mike Rounds Safe Mike Rounds
Tennessee Lamar Alexander 62% Bill Hagerty Safe Bill Hagerty
Texas John Cornyn 62% John Cornyn Safe John Cornyn
Virginia Mark Warner 49% Mark Warner Safe Mark Warner
West Virginia Shelley Moore Capito 62% Shelley Moore Capito Safe Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming Mike Enzi 71% Cynthia Lummis Safe Cynthia Lummis
United States Republican 53–47 Republican 51–49 Split 50–50
My prediction for the 117th U.S. House of Representatives!

I was predicting the House to be Republican in 2018—a very difficult target actually—and then to be Democratic in 2020. In 2018 Democrats won the House, and therefore I am predicting a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.


U.S. elections, 2022     

My prediction for the 118th U.S. Senate!  (as of November 5, 2020).
State Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Senator % Senator Rate Senator %
Alabama Richard Shelby 64% Republican Safe
Alaska Lisa Murkowski 44% Republican Likely
Arizona Mark Kelly 52% Toss-up
Arkansas John Boozman 60% Republican Safe
California Unknown app. Democratic Safe
Colorado Michael Bennet 50% Democratic Likely
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal 63% Democratic Safe
Florida Marco Rubio 52% Republican Lean
Georgia Unknown Toss-up
Hawaii Brian Schatz 74% Democratic Safe
Idaho Mike Crapo 66% Republican Safe
Illinois Tammy Duckworth 55% Democratic Safe
Indiana Todd Young 52% Republican Safe
Iowa Chuck Grassley 60% Republican Likely
Kansas Jerry Moran 62% Republican Safe
Kentucky Rand Paul 57% Republican Safe
Louisiana John Kennedy 61% Republican Safe
Maryland Chris Van Hollen 61% Democratic Safe
Missouri Roy Blunt 49% Republican Safe
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto 47% Democratic Likely
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan 48% Toss-up
New York Chuck Schumer 71% Democratic Safe
North Carolina Richard Burr 51% Toss-up
North Dakota John Hoeven 79% Republican Safe
Ohio Rob Portman 58% Republican Likely
Oklahoma James Lankford 68% Republican Safe
Oregon Ron Wyden 57% Democratic Safe
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey 49% Toss-up
South Carolina Tim Scott 61% Republican Safe
South Dakota John Thune 72% Republican Safe
Utah Mike Lee 68% Republican Safe
Vermont Patrick Leahy 60% Democratic Safe
Washington Patty Murray 59% Democratic Safe
Wisconsin Ron Johnson 50% Toss-up
United States Democratic Lean
My prediction for the 118th U.S. House of Representatives!  (as of November 5, 2020).
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
My election forecasts!


U.S. elections, 2018     

My prediction for the 116th U.S. Senate!

In the 2018 election cycle the United States Senate has been generally seen as the less disputed chamber of the Congress, due to the several races dictated by the map. Democratic incumbents are 26 (all running), while Republicans defend 9 seats in the Senate (with 3 retirements). The majority in the Senate has been usually forecast to probably be Republican, because of the polls and the states in which the People will vote, 10 out of 33 won by President Trump in 2016. Since July I am therefore predicting a Republican majority in the Senate.

State Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Senator Party Senator Party Senator Party
Arizona Jeff Flake R Martha McSally R Kyrsten Sinema D
California Dianne Feinstein D Dianne Feinstein D Dianne Feinstein D
Connecticut Chris Murphy D Chris Murphy D Chris Murphy D
Delaware Tom Carper D Tom Carper D Tom Carper D
Florida Bill Nelson D Bill Nelson D Rick Scott R
Hawaii Mazie Hirono D Mazie Hirono D Mazie Hirono D
Indiana Joe Donnelly D Joe Donnelly D Mike Braun R
Maine Angus King I Angus King I Angus King I
Maryland Ben Cardin D Ben Cardin D Ben Cardin D
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren D Elizabeth Warren D Elizabeth Warren D
Michigan Debbie Stabenow D Debbie Stabenow D Debbie Stabenow D
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar D Amy Klobuchar D Amy Klobuchar D
Minnesota (s.) Tina Smith D Tina Smith D Tina Smith D
Mississippi Roger Wicker R Roger Wicker R Roger Wicker R
Mississippi (s.) Cindy Hyde-Smith R Cindy Hyde-Smith R Cindy Hyde-Smith R
Missouri Claire McCaskill D Claire McCaskill D Josh Hawley R
Montana Jon Tester D Jon Tester D Jon Tester D
Nebraska Deb Fisher R Deb Fisher R Deb Fisher R
Nevada Dean Heller R Dean Heller R Jackie Rosen D
New Jersey Bob Menendez D Bob Menendez D Bob Menendez D
New Mexico Martin Heinrich D Martin Heinrich D Martin Heinrich D
New York Kirsten Gillibrand D Kirsten Gillibrand D Kirsten Gillibrand D
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp D Kevin Cramer R Kevin Cramer R
Ohio Sherrod Brown D Sherrod Brown D Sherrod Brown D
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Jr. D Bob Casey Jr. D Bob Casey Jr. D
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse D Sheldon Whitehouse D Sheldon Whitehouse D
Tennessee Bob Corker R Marsha Blackburn R Marsha Blackburn R
Texas Ted Cruz R Ted Cruz R Ted Cruz R
Utah Orrin Hatch R Mitt Romney R Mitt Romney R
Vermont Bernie Sanders I Bernie Sanders I Bernie Sanders I
Virginia Tim Kaine D Tim Kaine D Tim Kaine D
Washington Maria Cantwell D Maria Cantwell D Maria Cantwell D
West Virginia Joe Manchin D Joe Manchin D Joe Manchin D
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin D Tammy Baldwin D Tammy Baldwin D
Wyoming John Barasso R John Barasso R John Barasso R
United States Republican 51–49 Republican 52–48 Republican 53–47
My prediction for the 116th U.S. House of Representatives!

The House of Representatives is expected by many observers to go with a Democratic majority in this cycle. Republicans hold a majority since January 2011, after re-capturing it in the 2010 midterm elections. Currently there are 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 7 vacancies; Democrats need a 25 net gain to win the House and arrive to 218. Usually it is said that the party of the incumbent President loses the majority in this chamber during his first midterm election, but this is true only for the last two Democratic Presidents, and not for the last two Republican Presidents. In addition economical data have improved (lower unemployment, lower taxation, lower poverty), polls don't look so thrilling, and the approval rating of the President is at a record-high level, even higher than when he was inaugurated. Since July I am therefore predicting a Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

State Rep. Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Majority # Majority PVI Majority #
Alabama 7 Republican 6–1 Republican R+14 Republican 6–1
Alaska 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+9 Republican 1–0
Arizona 9 Republican 5–4 Democratic R+5 Democratic 5–4
Arkansas 4 Republican 4–0 Republican R+15 Republican 4–0
California 53 Democratic 39–14 Democratic D+12 Democratic 46–7
Colorado 7 Republican 4–3 Republican D+1 Democratic 4–3
Connecticut 5 Democratic 5–0 Democratic D+6 Democratic 5–0
Delaware 1 Democratic 1–0 Democratic D+6 Democratic 1–0
Florida 27 Republican 16–11 Republican R+2 Republican 14–13
Georgia 14 Republican 10–4 Republican R+5 Republican 9–5
Hawaii 2 Democratic 2–0 Democratic D+18 Democratic 2–0
Idaho 2 Republican 2–0 Republican R+19 Republican 2–0
Illinois 18 Democratic 11–7 Democratic D+7 Democratic 13–5
Indiana 9 Republican 7–2 Republican R+9 Republican 7–2
Iowa 4 Republican 3–1 Split R+3 Democratic 3–1
Kansas 4 Republican 4–0 Republican R+13 Republican 3–1
Kentucky 6 Republican 5–1 Republican R+15 Republican 5–1
Louisiana 6 Republican 5–1 Republican R+11 Republican 5–1
Maine 2 Split 1–1 Split D+3 Democratic 2–0
Maryland 8 Democratic 7–1 Democratic D+12 Democratic 7–1
Massachusetts 9 Democratic 9–0 Democratic D+12 Democratic 9–0
Michigan 14 Republican 9–5 Republican D+1 Split 7–7
Minnesota 8 Democratic 5–3 Democratic D+1 Democratic 5–3
Mississippi 4 Republican 3–1 Republican R+9 Republican 3–1
Missouri 8 Republican 6–2 Republican R+9 Republican 6–2
Montana 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+11 Republican 1–0
Nebraska 3 Republican 3–0 Republican R+14 Republican 3–0
Nevada 4 Democratic 3–1 Democratic D+1 Democratic 3–1
New Hampshire 2 Democratic 2–0 Democratic EVEN Democratic 2–0
New Jersey 12 Democratic 7–5 Democratic D+7 Democratic 11–1
New Mexico 3 Democratic 2–1 Democratic D+3 Democratic 2–1
New York 27 Democratic 18–9 Democratic D+11 Democratic 21–6
North Carolina 13 Republican 10–3 Republican R+3 Republican 9–3
North Dakota 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+17 Republican 1–0
Ohio 16 Republican 12–4 Republican R+3 Republican 12–4
Oklahoma 5 Republican 5–0 Republican R+20 Republican 4–1
Oregon 5 Democratic 4–1 Democratic D+5 Democratic 4–1
Pennsylvania 18 Republican 13–5 Republican EVEN Split 9–9
Rhode Island 2 Democratic 2–0 Democratic D+10 Democratic 2–0
South Carolina 7 Republican 6–1 Republican R+8 Republican 5–2
South Dakota 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+14 Republican 1–0
Tennessee 9 Republican 7–2 Republican R+14 Republican 7–2
Texas 36 Republican 25–11 Republican R+8 Republican 23–13
Utah 4 Republican 4–0 Republican R+20 Republican 3–1
Vermont 1 Democratic 1–0 Democratic D+15 Democratic 1–0
Virginia 11 Republican 7–4 Republican D+1 Democratic 7–4
Washington 10 Democratic 6–4 Democratic D+7 Democratic 7–3
West Virginia 3 Republican 3–0 Republican R+19 Republican 3–0
Wisconsin 8 Republican 5–3 Republican EVEN Republican 5–3
Wyoming 1 Republican 1–0 Republican R+25 Republican 1–0
United States 435 Republican 240–195 Republican EVEN Democratic 235–199


U.S. elections, 2020     

My prediction for the 59th presidential election!

Probably will go for President Trump, confirming the tradition of incumbent Presidents that get re-elected. Therefore I am predicting a Republican President—destined in any case to obtain a smaller amount of electoral votes than in the previous election.

State V. Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Winner % Winner Rate Winner %
Alabama 9 Donald Trump 62% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Alaska 3 Donald Trump 51% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Arizona 11 Donald Trump 49% Donald Trump Lean Joe Biden
Arkansas 6 Donald Trump 61% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
California 55 Hillary Clinton 62% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Colorado 9 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Connecticut 7 Hillary Clinton 55% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Delaware 3 Hillary Clinton 53% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
D.C. 3 Hillary Clinton 90% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Florida 29 Donald Trump 49% Donald Trump Lean Donald Trump
Georgia 16 Donald Trump 51% Donald Trump Likely Joe Biden
Hawaii 4 Hillary Clinton 62% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Idaho 4 Donald Trump 59% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Illinois 20 Hillary Clinton 56% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Indiana 11 Donald Trump 57% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Iowa 6 Donald Trump 51% Donald Trump Likely Donald Trump
Kansas 6 Donald Trump 57% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Kentucky 8 Donald Trump 58% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Louisiana 8 Donald Trump 58% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Maine 2+2 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Maryland 10 Hillary Clinton 60% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Massachusetts 11 Hillary Clinton 60% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Michigan 16 Donald Trump 48% Joe Biden Lean Joe Biden
Minnesota 10 Hillary Clinton 46% Joe Biden Likely Joe Biden
Mississippi 6 Donald Trump 58% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Missouri 10 Donald Trump 57% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Montana 3 Donald Trump 56% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Nebraska 2+3 Donald Trump 59% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Nevada 6 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New Hampshire 4 Hillary Clinton 47% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New Jersey 14 Hillary Clinton 55% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New Mexico 5 Hillary Clinton 48% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
New York 29 Hillary Clinton 59% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
North Carolina 15 Donald Trump 50% Donald Trump Lean Donald Trump
North Dakota 3 Donald Trump 63% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Ohio 18 Donald Trump 52% Donald Trump Likely Donald Trump
Oklahoma 7 Donald Trump 65% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Oregon 7 Hillary Clinton 50% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Pennsylvania 20 Donald Trump 48% Donald Trump Lean Joe Biden
Rhode Island 4 Hillary Clinton 54% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
South Carolina 9 Donald Trump 55% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
South Dakota 3 Donald Trump 62% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Tennessee 11 Donald Trump 61% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Texas 38 Donald Trump 52% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Utah 6 Donald Trump 46% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Vermont 3 Hillary Clinton 57% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Virginia 13 Hillary Clinton 50% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
Washington 12 Hillary Clinton 53% Joe Biden Safe Joe Biden
West Virginia 5 Donald Trump 69% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
Wisconsin 10 Donald Trump 47% Joe Biden Lean Joe Biden
Wyoming 3 Donald Trump 67% Donald Trump Safe Donald Trump
United States 538 Donald Trump 306–232 Donald Trump 280–258 Joe Biden 306–232
My prediction for the 117th U.S. Senate!

The Senate will probably remain in Republican hands, due to the States in which the People will vote and the many Republican pick-ups in 2018. Therefore I am predicting a Republican majority in the Senate.

State Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Senator % Senator Rate Senator %
Alabama Doug Jones 50% Tommy Tuberville Likely Tommy Tuberville
Alaska Dan Sullivan 48% Dan Sullivan Safe Dan Sullivan
Arizona (s.) Martha McSally app. John Kelly Lean John Kelly
Arkansas Tom Cotton 57% Tom Cotton Safe Tom Cotton
Colorado Cory Gardner 48% John Hickenlooper Lean John Hickenlooper
Delaware Chris Coons 56% Chris Coons Safe Chris Coons
Georgia David Perdue 53% David Perdue Likely Jon Ossoff
Georgia (s.) Kelly Loeffler app. Kelly Loeffler Likely Raphael Warnock
Idaho Jim Risch 65% Jim Risch Safe Jim Risch
Illinois Dick Durbin 54% Dick Durbin Safe Dick Durbin
Iowa Joni Ernst 52% Joni Ernst Lean Joni Ernst
Kansas Pat Roberts 53% Roger Marshall Safe Roger Marshall
Kentucky Mitch McConnell 56% Mitch McConnell Safe Mitch McConnell
Louisiana Bill Cassidy 56% Bill Cassidy Safe Bill Cassidy
Maine Susan Collins 69% Sara Gideon Lean Susan Collins
Massachusetts Ed Markey 62% Ed Markey Safe Ed Markey
Michigan Gary Peters 55% Gary Peters Likely Gary Peters
Minnesota Tina Smith 53% Tina Smith Safe Tina Smith
Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith 54% Cindy Hyde-Smith Safe Cindy Hyde-Smith
Montana Steve Daines 58% Steve Daines Lean Steve Daines
Nebraska Ben Sasse 64% Ben Sasse Safe Ben Sasse
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 52% Jeanne Shaheen Safe Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey Cory Booker 56% Cory Booker Safe Cory Booker
New Mexico Tom Udall 56% Ben Ray Luján Safe Ben Ray Luján
North Carolina Tom Tillis 49% Tom Tillis Lean Tom Tillis
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe 68% Jim Inhofe Safe Jim Inhofe
Oregon Jeff Merkley 56% Jeff Merkley Safe Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island Jack Reed 71% Jack Reed Safe Jack Reed
South Carolina Lindsey Graham 54% Lindsey Graham Safe Lindsey Graham
South Dakota Mike Rounds 50% Mike Rounds Safe Mike Rounds
Tennessee Lamar Alexander 62% Bill Hagerty Safe Bill Hagerty
Texas John Cornyn 62% John Cornyn Safe John Cornyn
Virginia Mark Warner 49% Mark Warner Safe Mark Warner
West Virginia Shelley Moore Capito 62% Shelley Moore Capito Safe Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming Mike Enzi 71% Cynthia Lummis Safe Cynthia Lummis
United States Republican 53–47 Republican 51–49 Split 50–50
My prediction for the 117th U.S. House of Representatives!

I was predicting the House to be Republican in 2018—a very difficult target actually—and then to be Democratic in 2020. In 2018 Democrats won the House, and therefore I am predicting a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.


U.S. elections, 2022     

My prediction for the 118th U.S. Senate!  (as of November 5, 2020).
State Before the elections My prediction After the elections ?
Senator % Senator Rate Senator %
Alabama Richard Shelby 64% Republican Safe
Alaska Lisa Murkowski 44% Republican Likely
Arizona Mark Kelly 52% Toss-up
Arkansas John Boozman 60% Republican Safe
California Unknown app. Democratic Safe
Colorado Michael Bennet 50% Democratic Likely
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal 63% Democratic Safe
Florida Marco Rubio 52% Republican Lean
Georgia Unknown Toss-up
Hawaii Brian Schatz 74% Democratic Safe
Idaho Mike Crapo 66% Republican Safe
Illinois Tammy Duckworth 55% Democratic Safe
Indiana Todd Young 52% Republican Safe
Iowa Chuck Grassley 60% Republican Likely
Kansas Jerry Moran 62% Republican Safe
Kentucky Rand Paul 57% Republican Safe
Louisiana John Kennedy 61% Republican Safe
Maryland Chris Van Hollen 61% Democratic Safe
Missouri Roy Blunt 49% Republican Safe
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto 47% Democratic Likely
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan 48% Toss-up
New York Chuck Schumer 71% Democratic Safe
North Carolina Richard Burr 51% Toss-up
North Dakota John Hoeven 79% Republican Safe
Ohio Rob Portman 58% Republican Likely
Oklahoma James Lankford 68% Republican Safe
Oregon Ron Wyden 57% Democratic Safe
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey 49% Toss-up
South Carolina Tim Scott 61% Republican Safe
South Dakota John Thune 72% Republican Safe
Utah Mike Lee 68% Republican Safe
Vermont Patrick Leahy 60% Democratic Safe
Washington Patty Murray 59% Democratic Safe
Wisconsin Ron Johnson 50% Toss-up
United States Democratic Lean
My prediction for the 118th U.S. House of Representatives!  (as of November 5, 2020).

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