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Moore Capito: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in West Virginia |
---|
The 2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012.
Incumbent Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominated Secretary of State of West Virginia Natalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history. [1]
Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since 1956, and their victory in this seat since 1942. [2] The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher |
David Harless |
Natalie Tennant |
David Wamsley |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 8% | 3% | 51% | 4% | — | 34% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ralph Baxter |
Robin Davis |
Nick Preservati |
Natalie Tennant |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MBE Research | May 1–2, 2013 | 207 | 1% | 12% | 1% | 40% | — | 38% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robin Davis |
Carte Goodwin |
Nick Rahall |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | January 21, 2013 | 579 | ± 4.07% | 17% | 8% | 38% | — | 37% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 104,598 | 77.95% | |
Democratic | Dennis Melton | 15,817 | 11.79% | |
Democratic | David Wamsley | 13,773 | 10.26% | |
Total votes | 134,188 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
Rick Lemasters |
Pat McGeehan |
Patrick Morrisey |
Scott Regan |
Edwin Vanover |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | January 21, 2013 | 462 | ± 4.56% | 73% | — | — | 10% | — | — | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 348 | ± 5.3% | 72% | 5% | 4% | — | 1% | 2% | 17% |
Harper Polling | September 24–25, 2013 | 354 | ± 5.21% | 77% | — | 7% | — | — | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
Someone more conservative |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 348 | ± 5.3% | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
David McKinley |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | January 21, 2013 | 462 | ± 4.56% | 70.5% | 14.75% | 14.75% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Shelley Moore Capito | 74,655 | 87.50% | |
Republican | Matthew Dodrill | 7,072 | 8.29% | |
Republican | Larry Butcher | 3,595 | 4.21% | |
Total votes | 85,322 | 100.00% |
A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 in Charleston. [51]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [52] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report [54] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics [55] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Natalie Tennant (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West Virginia Poll | August 15–22, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 36% | 50% | — | 14% |
Harper Polling | September 24–25, 2013 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 34% | 51% | — | 15% |
Clarity Campaigns Archived February 23, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | January 29–30, 2014 | 1,727 | ± 2.35% | 39% | 45% | — | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports | February 19–20, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 49% | 4% | 12% |
Vox Populi Polling | April 16–17, 2014 | 571 | ± 4.1% | 33% | 49% | — | 19% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 14–15, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | 5% | 9% |
West Virginia Poll | May 19–22, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 38% | 49% | — | 13% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,750 | ± 2.7% | 40% | 47% | 1% | 11% |
Rasmussen Reports | August 19–20, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 33% | 50% | — | 17% |
West Virginia Poll Archived August 31, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | August 15–23, 2014 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 54% | — | 9% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,284 | ± 4% | 32% | 55% | 1% | 12% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 4% | 33% | 56% | 1% | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 30 – October 1, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 39% | 50% | 3% | 8% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 877 | ± 5% | 34% | 56% | 0% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robin Davis (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 24% | 51% | — | 25% |
MBE Research | May 1–2, 2013 | 406 | ± 4.87% | 32% | 51% | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 26% | 54% | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher (D) |
Pat McGeehan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 24% | 27% | — | 48% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Carte Goodwin (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 19% | 53% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nick Rahall (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 32% | 50% | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Rockefeller (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 30 – October 2, 2011 | 932 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | — | 7% |
Repass & Partners | August 22–25, 2012 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Natalie Tennant (D) |
Pat McGeehan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 32% | — | 26% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Shelley Moore Capito | 281,820 | 62.12% | +25.86% | |
Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 156,360 | 34.47% | -29.27% | |
Libertarian | John Buckley | 7,409 | 1.63% | N/A | |
Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 5,504 | 1.21% | N/A | |
Constitution | Phil Hudok | 2,566 | 0.57% | N/A | |
Total votes | 453,659 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Capito won all three congressional districts. [57]
District | Capito | Tennant | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 62.19% | 33.92% | David McKinley |
2nd | 63.13% | 33.72% | Alex Mooney |
3rd | 60.94% | 35.86% | Evan Jenkins |
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Moore Capito: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in West Virginia |
---|
The 2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012.
Incumbent Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominated Secretary of State of West Virginia Natalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history. [1]
Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since 1956, and their victory in this seat since 1942. [2] The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher |
David Harless |
Natalie Tennant |
David Wamsley |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 8% | 3% | 51% | 4% | — | 34% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ralph Baxter |
Robin Davis |
Nick Preservati |
Natalie Tennant |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MBE Research | May 1–2, 2013 | 207 | 1% | 12% | 1% | 40% | — | 38% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robin Davis |
Carte Goodwin |
Nick Rahall |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | January 21, 2013 | 579 | ± 4.07% | 17% | 8% | 38% | — | 37% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 104,598 | 77.95% | |
Democratic | Dennis Melton | 15,817 | 11.79% | |
Democratic | David Wamsley | 13,773 | 10.26% | |
Total votes | 134,188 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
Rick Lemasters |
Pat McGeehan |
Patrick Morrisey |
Scott Regan |
Edwin Vanover |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | January 21, 2013 | 462 | ± 4.56% | 73% | — | — | 10% | — | — | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 348 | ± 5.3% | 72% | 5% | 4% | — | 1% | 2% | 17% |
Harper Polling | September 24–25, 2013 | 354 | ± 5.21% | 77% | — | 7% | — | — | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
Someone more conservative |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 348 | ± 5.3% | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
David McKinley |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | January 21, 2013 | 462 | ± 4.56% | 70.5% | 14.75% | 14.75% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Shelley Moore Capito | 74,655 | 87.50% | |
Republican | Matthew Dodrill | 7,072 | 8.29% | |
Republican | Larry Butcher | 3,595 | 4.21% | |
Total votes | 85,322 | 100.00% |
A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 in Charleston. [51]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [52] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report [54] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics [55] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Natalie Tennant (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West Virginia Poll | August 15–22, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 36% | 50% | — | 14% |
Harper Polling | September 24–25, 2013 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 34% | 51% | — | 15% |
Clarity Campaigns Archived February 23, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | January 29–30, 2014 | 1,727 | ± 2.35% | 39% | 45% | — | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports | February 19–20, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 49% | 4% | 12% |
Vox Populi Polling | April 16–17, 2014 | 571 | ± 4.1% | 33% | 49% | — | 19% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 14–15, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | 5% | 9% |
West Virginia Poll | May 19–22, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 38% | 49% | — | 13% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,750 | ± 2.7% | 40% | 47% | 1% | 11% |
Rasmussen Reports | August 19–20, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 33% | 50% | — | 17% |
West Virginia Poll Archived August 31, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | August 15–23, 2014 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 54% | — | 9% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,284 | ± 4% | 32% | 55% | 1% | 12% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 4% | 33% | 56% | 1% | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 30 – October 1, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 39% | 50% | 3% | 8% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 877 | ± 5% | 34% | 56% | 0% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robin Davis (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 24% | 51% | — | 25% |
MBE Research | May 1–2, 2013 | 406 | ± 4.87% | 32% | 51% | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 26% | 54% | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher (D) |
Pat McGeehan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 24% | 27% | — | 48% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Carte Goodwin (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 19% | 53% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nick Rahall (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 32% | 50% | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Rockefeller (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 30 – October 2, 2011 | 932 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | — | 7% |
Repass & Partners | August 22–25, 2012 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Natalie Tennant (D) |
Pat McGeehan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 32% | — | 26% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Shelley Moore Capito | 281,820 | 62.12% | +25.86% | |
Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 156,360 | 34.47% | -29.27% | |
Libertarian | John Buckley | 7,409 | 1.63% | N/A | |
Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 5,504 | 1.21% | N/A | |
Constitution | Phil Hudok | 2,566 | 0.57% | N/A | |
Total votes | 453,659 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Capito won all three congressional districts. [57]
District | Capito | Tennant | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 62.19% | 33.92% | David McKinley |
2nd | 63.13% | 33.72% | Alex Mooney |
3rd | 60.94% | 35.86% | Evan Jenkins |