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I think this entry is superfluous; the political aspects of anthropogenic global warming are just about identical to the political aspects of all (man+nature) global warming, since we can't do anything about natural global warming. A better place might be with greenhouse gases. --TheCunctator
I also find it somewhat confusing; the Democratic party is said to consider anthropogenic global warming a huge threat, but then it goes on to describe how not a single Democrat politician supported the Kyoto protocols. And then there's that odd reference to Enron. I don't know if this article is biased in any particular direction, but it feels that way somehow. To make you feel better, very few politicians supported Kyoto initially, regardless of being right or left.
Responding to the unsigned paragraph above
This article seems to be totally focused on the US political aspects of an international issue, and in any case, if every single Democrat voted against the Kyoto protocols, then it is clearly not the case that "the Democratic Party" supports it. I think this article gives the Democrats much more credit for being progressive and pro-environment on this issue than they deserve. soulpatch
Editors who question "The science working group of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) recognizes that the climate models in the IPCC Second and Third Assessment Reports are seriously flawed." should read the Executive Summary in the IPCC Scientific basis document about physical climate processes [1]. -- SEWilco 16:26, 24 Aug 2003 (UTC)
I don't think the above 2 paragraphs are really relevant to the Anthropogenic global warming article. But where should they go? William, Martin, Eloquence, SEWilco, what do you think?
( William M. Connolley 19:27, 11 Sep 2003 (UTC)) In some logical world, this page would hold the anthro aspects of GW. But in fact the GW page has most of the stuff, because you can't separate the two (ie, you can't quantify the anthro without some idea of the natural; and vice versa). So this page is doomed to be an orphan. Perhaps it should be reduced further.
( SEWilco 20:37, 11 Sep 2003 (UTC)) I agree. At the moment it (and anthropogenic global cooling) should just state the definition of the term and direct people to global warming for details of all the issues. When the anthro effects can be identified, they can be described here.
If " global warming" means not just any period in which the air temperature went up, but "the theory that emissions have been heating the air too much" -- then anthropogenic GW isn't really a separate article.
I propose the following division of articles:
The above list is not complete, so let's work on it together. -- Uncle Ed 16:26, 9 Aug 2004 (UTC)
Yer right, boss. Our conversations are getting scattered all over the place. But since we are working together, that's okay. We seem to find each other's scattered comments okay.
I hadn't seen your classification scheme, so obviously my little attempt is amateurish. But hey, what can I say? I always read the Amateur Scientist section of Scientific American, and now I'm an amateur journalist! -- Uncle Ed
( William M. Connolley 18:36, 17 Nov 2004 (UTC)) AFAIK the solar/cosmic-ray climate connection is all up in the air at the moment. There are various theories and mechanisms, none command any wide acceptance. I've qualified S's recent addition to reflect that viewpoint. Presenting that paper in science as the-state-of-the-debate would be wrong.
Probably, that stuff is worth its own page: there is a lot of it, far more than just the science paper, and it can't all go on this page.
Please read the new articles and consider commenting on them and/or moving some material to either one. Note that climate forcings is not specific to global climate forcings, so if it makes sense to create a separate section please do.
I hope this helps get this part of Wikipedia sorted out.
Posted to all discussion pages listed in the "See Also" section of global climate change. -- Ben 03:48, 2 Dec 2004 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 20:30, 7 Feb 2005 (UTC)) I consider the Njau refs somewhat desparate. Renewable energy isn't a climate journal. The 1999 paper has been cited 7 times... all by Njau. Never by anyone else. The abstract [4] is gobbledegook. In 1999 Njau published 5 other papers - all in Renewable energy (actually one other, in the well known Nuovo Cimento. Only he has ever cited it). One of them has never been cited by anyone, even him. Of the other 4, only one has ever been cited by anyone but Njau, and that only once. He is clearly a minor author peddling his pet theories, but no-one is listening.
The 2005 paper hasn't been published yet - at least Elsevier lists it for april [5] so I don't think it should be in there. It contains 17 refs... 9 of which are to his own papers. Reading the abstract for that paper it is clear why its published in such a minor journal - its clearly dubious stuff.
Here's an example of the sort of rubbish he is writing:
Thats from a 2000 paper, cited by... nobody.
What part of "Wikipedia does not endorse a best answer, source it to someone or remove it" do you not understand??? It's straight out of NPOV policy, follow it! — Cortonin | Talk 17:12, 22 Apr 2005 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 21:16, 22 Apr 2005 (UTC)) This [6] has got to be one of the worst edits I've seen for a long while, with the edit summary Removed POV paragraph - not only does it violate wiki policy, it isn't relevant to the article. The para itself is well balanced, and how can it possibly be regarded as not relevant? It seems perfectly clear that JG has essentially degnerated to vandalising the articles.
( William M. Connolley 22:09, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)) I've just reverted what I suspect is a JonGwynne sockpuppet, User:Springmourning44. Oddly, this new entrant to the debate has chosen to re-do a JG revert, with no explanation. Whoever it may be, its been blocked anyway.
Don't forget that the US National Academy of Sciences concurred with the IPCC conclusion that the majority of the temperature rise last century was most likely due to anthropogenic influences. If the IPCC is to be cited explicitly as a source of this scientific opinion, then so too should the NAS, and perhaps also all the other scientists who did not take part in either IPCC or NAS reports but have arrived at the same conclusion. It would seem to be biased to attribute that conclusion only to a subset of those who hold it. Daniel Collins 22:47, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 13:28, 27 May 2005 (UTC)) JG changed "expressed" to "according to". This was a pointless tweak, but makes the sense worse, by implying the views are restricted to those bodies; whereas they are merely expressing the general consensus. Hence reverted.
"20C temperature trends (including early 20C changes, where solar forcing is non-negligible) there is no obvious need for a high sensitivity to solar forcing. Indeed, a significantly higher sensitivity to solar forcing would make early 20C"
I'm unsure if this is saying 20th century or 20 degrees Celsius. I assume century, but if someone who knows could fix them one way or the other, that would be good.
Wikibofh 8 July 2005 16:12 (UTC)
What should be in this article is a link to Axial_tilt. That and the related Arctic_Circle and Antarctic_circle need a bit of numbers disambiguation on the variation in how much Earth's axial tilt changes.
Climate change is driven by BOTH variations in solar output and the continously varying tilt of Earth's axis, which at present is decreasing. Think about the effect that has on the amount of surface area that's in constant darkness from 24 hours to six months per year, and how that affects the net heat loss. See also Solar_variation.
I never see or hear anyone talking about these two things _combined_. It's always "It's all THIS that's the cause!".
Discovery Channel's recent documentary on "The Little Ice Age" hit upon just about every possible factor _except_ axial tilt change, and nobody on the show proposed any theory combining more than one factor. They were all "THIS caused it. Those other things? Piffle! Irrelevant!".
It's time for people who study each of these things to get together, get their (bleep) together and quit butting heads over who's "right" and realize that none of their pet theories works in isolation!
Is there a better place to find out what has caused these regions to warm? Is there a ball of CO2 hovering over them? Or is the cause of regional rise and falls of temperature completely unrelated to the rise or fall of global temperature? Should I be asking this some place else or on a different article?
No citation is provided for the "indeed" sentence I deleted. The sentence is probably an erroneous statement of the idea of trying to explain all 20th century warming with solar and without GHGs. That would require enough solar in the latter half century to overshoot the warming in the first half. However, this explanation is not what the indeed text says, and the indeed text is false. There could be a "significant" increase in sensitivity to solar that compatible with the first half century, there is room for reallocation of forcing to solar there. That "significant" increase in sensitivity to solar would not be enough to fully explain the latter half of the 20th century, but more would be attributed to solar than the TAR, and probably even Stolt did. -- Poodleboy 13:37, 10 June 2006 (UTC)
PB added:
However, the models may have significant errors in their representation of surface albedo. Positive albedo biases due to inaccuracies in representing snow cover and desert albedos would have the effect of reducing model sensitivity to solar forcing. [7] [8] [9] [10]
To me this looks like more of his obsession with albedo in models. Havin looked at his refs, I don't see any of them addressing the question of model sensitivity to solar forcing.
As for stronger-solar-makes-early-20th-C inexplicable, I admit thats unreferenced but it seems obvious: if you can explain the T from current models, with no solar amplification, there seems to not too much room for solar amplification. Unless you turned down the solar forcing in the reconstructions William M. Connolley 13:37, 10 June 2006 (UTC)
If you want to attribute warming of the last 30 years, you can't assume that solar is contributing nothing to the temperature increase or the heat storage in the ocean - I don't understand this. There is no such assumption. Also, I reiterate my unanswered point that PB is reading too much into his refs: the assertion of a bias in sensitivity is his own, not in the refs William M. Connolley 07:26, 11 June 2006 (UTC)
Sigh. *total* solar is 136x; per unit area its 350-ish; albedo err of 0.01 is then 3.5 w/m2. But thats not the *forcing* number; what you then need is the *change* in the forcing; which is 1% of that. This is what DF and I have patiently been trying to explain to you with little success so far William M. Connolley 11:04, 12 June 2006 (UTC)
Removed from article by William:
Isn't this a well-referenced view? Why did you remove it? -- Uncle Ed 17:26, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
You're expecting Ed to have read up on things...? Anyway: I removed it because (a) even if correct, its a bizarre lead-in to the section (b) its not correct. The is the attribution page, and its about science, not the politicial view of the science, which (as RR (thats a hint, Ed) has pointed out) is what RP Jr is talking about William M. Connolley 20:53, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
In the section Detection and Attribution, Detection is defined to be a specific demonstration of statistical significance, but then we go on to claim implicitly that there is no uncertainty, or "margin of error" to be dealt with when discussing Detection:
Detection does not imply attribution, and is easier than attribution. Unequivocal attribution would require controlled experiments with multiple copies of the climate system, which is not possible. Attribution, as described above, can therefore only be done within some margin of error.
There most certainly is uncertainty in Detection! We are dealing with experimental (and therefore uncertain) data, and unproven (in a strict sense, as all theoretical models are, strictly) (and therefore uncertain) models. Statistical significance itself is a somewhat arbitrary thing (5% significance level? 10% level? 0.5% level?). Thus the implication that Detection does not entail any uncertainty is a gross abuse of statistics, is very misleading to those not familiar with statistics, and should be remedied! Jon Wilson 24.162.120.52 01:47, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
Svensmark's recent research on cosmic rays is certain to gain many followers, but I just found a very interesting article written in 2004 that predicted global cooling by 2006 because of increased cosmic rays. The fact temperatures were down in 2006 says something, although I have not yet found proof that cloud or cosmic rays were increased (I would not doubt it). [14] The article itself is only on google cache, so the charts and images do not show. [15] RonCram 13:48, 10 January 2007 (UTC)
The article reads "The most fiercely-contested question in current climate change research is over attribution of climate change to either natural/internal or human factors..." -- most significant perhaps, but most fiercely contested seems misleading given that there is a consensus... -- Nethgirb
Attribution goes beyond whether any human contribution is estimated to be zero or non-zero. If the human component were non-zero but very small, then arguably the optimal response might be to do nothing (as warming might happen at roughly the same rate over much the same period anyway). If any human component were relatively very large, then that might be suggestive of the need for a response to any anthropogenic forcing, with the magnitude of the response positively related to the magnitude of the attribution (as action might make an important difference over meaningful timeframes if any athropogenic contribution were estimated to be relatively very large). On this reading, there does not seem to be a consensus surrounding attribution, although the IPCC use of the word "most" appears to imply that there exists a consensus that any human component is > 50%. Does anyone have references for supporting evidence of this implied consensus of > 50% attribution?
Ofomamad 16:00, 8 February 2007 (UTC)Ofomamad
I took out:
because I don't see that it fits the description of *important* results. Also its badly misrepresented: B+G don't predict cooling, they say: If tropical Pacific SST responds to these subsurface changes in a similar way, then it could be an indication of a climate regime shift to pre-1976 conditions. Given the considerable effect that tropical Pacific SST has on global atmospheric circulation, a climate shift to pre-1976 conditions could lessen the warming trend that has existed since 1976. which is very different. Also they make no specific predictions about 2006 that I can see. William M. Connolley 20:29, 21 January 2007 (UTC)
William and Stephan - First of all, Real Climate is wrong. The IPCC does discuss the C13 to C12 ratio and says it points to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, the characteristic isotopic signatures of fossil fuel (its lack of 14C, and depleted content of 13C) leave their mark in the atmosphere. [19] The article I linked to proves that this line of reasoning is bogus. 13C can be "depleted" by purely natural mechanisms. Seeing the hand of man where it is not necessarily active is poor science. These guys are jumping to conclusions that are not warranted. Recent studies show this line of argument is no longer valid. RonCram 03:52, 23 January 2007 (UTC)
William, you deleted my entry on Giese again. He predicted a return to pre-1976 conditions after 4 years from his study. His study was 2002. Temperatures did cool in 2006. The entry is correct. RonCram 19:38, 26 January 2007 (UTC)
RC continues to misrepresent B+G. First of all, I maintain my doubt that its important enough to list. But even past that, RC has it wrong: RC added:
The lag is *about* 4 years, and the paper says this, not precisely 4. The paper cannot possibly be about an event in 2002 - "An event in 2002 caused..." is an invention by RC - because it was received in March 2002 by GRL, which means it must have been begun in early 2002 at best. Fig 1 shows temperatures to 2000 and 5-y smoothed ENSO to 2001. The paper does say if negative anomalies follow a pattern similar to the positive anomalies in the mid–1970’s, then a cool tropical Pacific SST anomaly may soon weaken the global warming signal. but note the if, the may, and the lack of a timescale. And later: If tropical Pacific SST responds to these subsurface changes in a similar way, then it could be an indication of a climate regime shift to pre-1976 conditions. Given the considerable effect that tropical Pacific SST has on global atmospheric circulation, a climate shift to pre-1976 conditions could lessen the warming trend that has existed since 1976 - again, note the if, the could be, the could. And that it ends with "lessen the warming trend" - not *cooling*. Adn there is no 4-y timescale given.
In short, RC has misread the paper William M. Connolley 19:54, 26 January 2007 (UTC)
You are shifting and turning, but cannot hide the fact that your additions are wrong. You have inserted into the article All climate models had predicted 2006 would set record temperatures. This appears to be a fact entirely of your own invention, and completely sourceless, as well as being wrong (assuming you really mean climate models). a climate model which includes the observations and predictions Giese made - what does this mean? A climate model that includes predictions? IMHO the word "about" was not required in an encyclopedia when talking about averaged annual temperatures - sheer revisionism. You needed it to be exactly 4 years to make your fantasy prediction make any sense. I've reverted it again to remove your falsehoods William M. Connolley 19:06, 27 January 2007 (UTC)
RonCram, yes... i deleted the entry, and William has summed up my opposition quite accurately. As you may remember this paper was discussed on the Talk:List_of_scientists_opposing_global_warming_consensus - so i do know the paper. And i cannot say that your entry in any way is representative of it. I didn't edit it - because there wasn't anything to salvage. -- Kim D. Petersen 23:45, 27 January 2007 (UTC)
Still you shift and turn. You have, finally, removed the blatant untruths from your text. However now B+G are no longer predicting anything, still less anything that has come true, there is no obvious claim for notability - other than it including the quote you like. Now you are left with your main point being OR: that GCMs don't consider climate shifts. You bolster this with your reading of climate forcings, but yet again you are wrong. The regime shift that B+G consider is internal to the ocean-atmos system (well, mostly in the ocean) not an *external* forcing at all. So yes, coupled GCMs contain the same physics and may well have such regime shifts. Without some backup, your assertion that these *aren't* considered is nothing but OR on your part. I am not required to demonstrate the falsity of words you add: you are required to add only verifiable sourced material: which your "main point" isn't William M. Connolley 19:38, 29 January 2007 (UTC)
Took out the predicted bit as I don't see a prediction in their paper. Mainly just a caution regarding uncertainties in observed natural cycles and they point out a ...similar, but opposite in sign, pattern as that seen prior to the 1976 climate shift and emphasize the importance of understanding the separation between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in the climate system. Let's not read more into the article than is there. Vsmith 02:24, 30 January 2007 (UTC)
RC, your shifting of ground is amazing! A direct quote from you is The main point is that the IPCC's climate models do not consider an important theory of climate shifts just above. Now that this bit has been removed, you have changed your "main point" yet again (previous shifts, you'll recall, include the "prediction" that wasn't). The entry remains non-notable; removed William M. Connolley 10:03, 1 February 2007 (UTC)
Lord Monckton has a very readable analysis. Here are some excerpts:
You can read the full report here. [22] RonCram 01:00, 3 February 2007 (UTC)
This page is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
This page is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
I think this entry is superfluous; the political aspects of anthropogenic global warming are just about identical to the political aspects of all (man+nature) global warming, since we can't do anything about natural global warming. A better place might be with greenhouse gases. --TheCunctator
I also find it somewhat confusing; the Democratic party is said to consider anthropogenic global warming a huge threat, but then it goes on to describe how not a single Democrat politician supported the Kyoto protocols. And then there's that odd reference to Enron. I don't know if this article is biased in any particular direction, but it feels that way somehow. To make you feel better, very few politicians supported Kyoto initially, regardless of being right or left.
Responding to the unsigned paragraph above
This article seems to be totally focused on the US political aspects of an international issue, and in any case, if every single Democrat voted against the Kyoto protocols, then it is clearly not the case that "the Democratic Party" supports it. I think this article gives the Democrats much more credit for being progressive and pro-environment on this issue than they deserve. soulpatch
Editors who question "The science working group of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) recognizes that the climate models in the IPCC Second and Third Assessment Reports are seriously flawed." should read the Executive Summary in the IPCC Scientific basis document about physical climate processes [1]. -- SEWilco 16:26, 24 Aug 2003 (UTC)
I don't think the above 2 paragraphs are really relevant to the Anthropogenic global warming article. But where should they go? William, Martin, Eloquence, SEWilco, what do you think?
( William M. Connolley 19:27, 11 Sep 2003 (UTC)) In some logical world, this page would hold the anthro aspects of GW. But in fact the GW page has most of the stuff, because you can't separate the two (ie, you can't quantify the anthro without some idea of the natural; and vice versa). So this page is doomed to be an orphan. Perhaps it should be reduced further.
( SEWilco 20:37, 11 Sep 2003 (UTC)) I agree. At the moment it (and anthropogenic global cooling) should just state the definition of the term and direct people to global warming for details of all the issues. When the anthro effects can be identified, they can be described here.
If " global warming" means not just any period in which the air temperature went up, but "the theory that emissions have been heating the air too much" -- then anthropogenic GW isn't really a separate article.
I propose the following division of articles:
The above list is not complete, so let's work on it together. -- Uncle Ed 16:26, 9 Aug 2004 (UTC)
Yer right, boss. Our conversations are getting scattered all over the place. But since we are working together, that's okay. We seem to find each other's scattered comments okay.
I hadn't seen your classification scheme, so obviously my little attempt is amateurish. But hey, what can I say? I always read the Amateur Scientist section of Scientific American, and now I'm an amateur journalist! -- Uncle Ed
( William M. Connolley 18:36, 17 Nov 2004 (UTC)) AFAIK the solar/cosmic-ray climate connection is all up in the air at the moment. There are various theories and mechanisms, none command any wide acceptance. I've qualified S's recent addition to reflect that viewpoint. Presenting that paper in science as the-state-of-the-debate would be wrong.
Probably, that stuff is worth its own page: there is a lot of it, far more than just the science paper, and it can't all go on this page.
Please read the new articles and consider commenting on them and/or moving some material to either one. Note that climate forcings is not specific to global climate forcings, so if it makes sense to create a separate section please do.
I hope this helps get this part of Wikipedia sorted out.
Posted to all discussion pages listed in the "See Also" section of global climate change. -- Ben 03:48, 2 Dec 2004 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 20:30, 7 Feb 2005 (UTC)) I consider the Njau refs somewhat desparate. Renewable energy isn't a climate journal. The 1999 paper has been cited 7 times... all by Njau. Never by anyone else. The abstract [4] is gobbledegook. In 1999 Njau published 5 other papers - all in Renewable energy (actually one other, in the well known Nuovo Cimento. Only he has ever cited it). One of them has never been cited by anyone, even him. Of the other 4, only one has ever been cited by anyone but Njau, and that only once. He is clearly a minor author peddling his pet theories, but no-one is listening.
The 2005 paper hasn't been published yet - at least Elsevier lists it for april [5] so I don't think it should be in there. It contains 17 refs... 9 of which are to his own papers. Reading the abstract for that paper it is clear why its published in such a minor journal - its clearly dubious stuff.
Here's an example of the sort of rubbish he is writing:
Thats from a 2000 paper, cited by... nobody.
What part of "Wikipedia does not endorse a best answer, source it to someone or remove it" do you not understand??? It's straight out of NPOV policy, follow it! — Cortonin | Talk 17:12, 22 Apr 2005 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 21:16, 22 Apr 2005 (UTC)) This [6] has got to be one of the worst edits I've seen for a long while, with the edit summary Removed POV paragraph - not only does it violate wiki policy, it isn't relevant to the article. The para itself is well balanced, and how can it possibly be regarded as not relevant? It seems perfectly clear that JG has essentially degnerated to vandalising the articles.
( William M. Connolley 22:09, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)) I've just reverted what I suspect is a JonGwynne sockpuppet, User:Springmourning44. Oddly, this new entrant to the debate has chosen to re-do a JG revert, with no explanation. Whoever it may be, its been blocked anyway.
Don't forget that the US National Academy of Sciences concurred with the IPCC conclusion that the majority of the temperature rise last century was most likely due to anthropogenic influences. If the IPCC is to be cited explicitly as a source of this scientific opinion, then so too should the NAS, and perhaps also all the other scientists who did not take part in either IPCC or NAS reports but have arrived at the same conclusion. It would seem to be biased to attribute that conclusion only to a subset of those who hold it. Daniel Collins 22:47, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)
( William M. Connolley 13:28, 27 May 2005 (UTC)) JG changed "expressed" to "according to". This was a pointless tweak, but makes the sense worse, by implying the views are restricted to those bodies; whereas they are merely expressing the general consensus. Hence reverted.
"20C temperature trends (including early 20C changes, where solar forcing is non-negligible) there is no obvious need for a high sensitivity to solar forcing. Indeed, a significantly higher sensitivity to solar forcing would make early 20C"
I'm unsure if this is saying 20th century or 20 degrees Celsius. I assume century, but if someone who knows could fix them one way or the other, that would be good.
Wikibofh 8 July 2005 16:12 (UTC)
What should be in this article is a link to Axial_tilt. That and the related Arctic_Circle and Antarctic_circle need a bit of numbers disambiguation on the variation in how much Earth's axial tilt changes.
Climate change is driven by BOTH variations in solar output and the continously varying tilt of Earth's axis, which at present is decreasing. Think about the effect that has on the amount of surface area that's in constant darkness from 24 hours to six months per year, and how that affects the net heat loss. See also Solar_variation.
I never see or hear anyone talking about these two things _combined_. It's always "It's all THIS that's the cause!".
Discovery Channel's recent documentary on "The Little Ice Age" hit upon just about every possible factor _except_ axial tilt change, and nobody on the show proposed any theory combining more than one factor. They were all "THIS caused it. Those other things? Piffle! Irrelevant!".
It's time for people who study each of these things to get together, get their (bleep) together and quit butting heads over who's "right" and realize that none of their pet theories works in isolation!
Is there a better place to find out what has caused these regions to warm? Is there a ball of CO2 hovering over them? Or is the cause of regional rise and falls of temperature completely unrelated to the rise or fall of global temperature? Should I be asking this some place else or on a different article?
No citation is provided for the "indeed" sentence I deleted. The sentence is probably an erroneous statement of the idea of trying to explain all 20th century warming with solar and without GHGs. That would require enough solar in the latter half century to overshoot the warming in the first half. However, this explanation is not what the indeed text says, and the indeed text is false. There could be a "significant" increase in sensitivity to solar that compatible with the first half century, there is room for reallocation of forcing to solar there. That "significant" increase in sensitivity to solar would not be enough to fully explain the latter half of the 20th century, but more would be attributed to solar than the TAR, and probably even Stolt did. -- Poodleboy 13:37, 10 June 2006 (UTC)
PB added:
However, the models may have significant errors in their representation of surface albedo. Positive albedo biases due to inaccuracies in representing snow cover and desert albedos would have the effect of reducing model sensitivity to solar forcing. [7] [8] [9] [10]
To me this looks like more of his obsession with albedo in models. Havin looked at his refs, I don't see any of them addressing the question of model sensitivity to solar forcing.
As for stronger-solar-makes-early-20th-C inexplicable, I admit thats unreferenced but it seems obvious: if you can explain the T from current models, with no solar amplification, there seems to not too much room for solar amplification. Unless you turned down the solar forcing in the reconstructions William M. Connolley 13:37, 10 June 2006 (UTC)
If you want to attribute warming of the last 30 years, you can't assume that solar is contributing nothing to the temperature increase or the heat storage in the ocean - I don't understand this. There is no such assumption. Also, I reiterate my unanswered point that PB is reading too much into his refs: the assertion of a bias in sensitivity is his own, not in the refs William M. Connolley 07:26, 11 June 2006 (UTC)
Sigh. *total* solar is 136x; per unit area its 350-ish; albedo err of 0.01 is then 3.5 w/m2. But thats not the *forcing* number; what you then need is the *change* in the forcing; which is 1% of that. This is what DF and I have patiently been trying to explain to you with little success so far William M. Connolley 11:04, 12 June 2006 (UTC)
Removed from article by William:
Isn't this a well-referenced view? Why did you remove it? -- Uncle Ed 17:26, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
You're expecting Ed to have read up on things...? Anyway: I removed it because (a) even if correct, its a bizarre lead-in to the section (b) its not correct. The is the attribution page, and its about science, not the politicial view of the science, which (as RR (thats a hint, Ed) has pointed out) is what RP Jr is talking about William M. Connolley 20:53, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
In the section Detection and Attribution, Detection is defined to be a specific demonstration of statistical significance, but then we go on to claim implicitly that there is no uncertainty, or "margin of error" to be dealt with when discussing Detection:
Detection does not imply attribution, and is easier than attribution. Unequivocal attribution would require controlled experiments with multiple copies of the climate system, which is not possible. Attribution, as described above, can therefore only be done within some margin of error.
There most certainly is uncertainty in Detection! We are dealing with experimental (and therefore uncertain) data, and unproven (in a strict sense, as all theoretical models are, strictly) (and therefore uncertain) models. Statistical significance itself is a somewhat arbitrary thing (5% significance level? 10% level? 0.5% level?). Thus the implication that Detection does not entail any uncertainty is a gross abuse of statistics, is very misleading to those not familiar with statistics, and should be remedied! Jon Wilson 24.162.120.52 01:47, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
Svensmark's recent research on cosmic rays is certain to gain many followers, but I just found a very interesting article written in 2004 that predicted global cooling by 2006 because of increased cosmic rays. The fact temperatures were down in 2006 says something, although I have not yet found proof that cloud or cosmic rays were increased (I would not doubt it). [14] The article itself is only on google cache, so the charts and images do not show. [15] RonCram 13:48, 10 January 2007 (UTC)
The article reads "The most fiercely-contested question in current climate change research is over attribution of climate change to either natural/internal or human factors..." -- most significant perhaps, but most fiercely contested seems misleading given that there is a consensus... -- Nethgirb
Attribution goes beyond whether any human contribution is estimated to be zero or non-zero. If the human component were non-zero but very small, then arguably the optimal response might be to do nothing (as warming might happen at roughly the same rate over much the same period anyway). If any human component were relatively very large, then that might be suggestive of the need for a response to any anthropogenic forcing, with the magnitude of the response positively related to the magnitude of the attribution (as action might make an important difference over meaningful timeframes if any athropogenic contribution were estimated to be relatively very large). On this reading, there does not seem to be a consensus surrounding attribution, although the IPCC use of the word "most" appears to imply that there exists a consensus that any human component is > 50%. Does anyone have references for supporting evidence of this implied consensus of > 50% attribution?
Ofomamad 16:00, 8 February 2007 (UTC)Ofomamad
I took out:
because I don't see that it fits the description of *important* results. Also its badly misrepresented: B+G don't predict cooling, they say: If tropical Pacific SST responds to these subsurface changes in a similar way, then it could be an indication of a climate regime shift to pre-1976 conditions. Given the considerable effect that tropical Pacific SST has on global atmospheric circulation, a climate shift to pre-1976 conditions could lessen the warming trend that has existed since 1976. which is very different. Also they make no specific predictions about 2006 that I can see. William M. Connolley 20:29, 21 January 2007 (UTC)
William and Stephan - First of all, Real Climate is wrong. The IPCC does discuss the C13 to C12 ratio and says it points to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, the characteristic isotopic signatures of fossil fuel (its lack of 14C, and depleted content of 13C) leave their mark in the atmosphere. [19] The article I linked to proves that this line of reasoning is bogus. 13C can be "depleted" by purely natural mechanisms. Seeing the hand of man where it is not necessarily active is poor science. These guys are jumping to conclusions that are not warranted. Recent studies show this line of argument is no longer valid. RonCram 03:52, 23 January 2007 (UTC)
William, you deleted my entry on Giese again. He predicted a return to pre-1976 conditions after 4 years from his study. His study was 2002. Temperatures did cool in 2006. The entry is correct. RonCram 19:38, 26 January 2007 (UTC)
RC continues to misrepresent B+G. First of all, I maintain my doubt that its important enough to list. But even past that, RC has it wrong: RC added:
The lag is *about* 4 years, and the paper says this, not precisely 4. The paper cannot possibly be about an event in 2002 - "An event in 2002 caused..." is an invention by RC - because it was received in March 2002 by GRL, which means it must have been begun in early 2002 at best. Fig 1 shows temperatures to 2000 and 5-y smoothed ENSO to 2001. The paper does say if negative anomalies follow a pattern similar to the positive anomalies in the mid–1970’s, then a cool tropical Pacific SST anomaly may soon weaken the global warming signal. but note the if, the may, and the lack of a timescale. And later: If tropical Pacific SST responds to these subsurface changes in a similar way, then it could be an indication of a climate regime shift to pre-1976 conditions. Given the considerable effect that tropical Pacific SST has on global atmospheric circulation, a climate shift to pre-1976 conditions could lessen the warming trend that has existed since 1976 - again, note the if, the could be, the could. And that it ends with "lessen the warming trend" - not *cooling*. Adn there is no 4-y timescale given.
In short, RC has misread the paper William M. Connolley 19:54, 26 January 2007 (UTC)
You are shifting and turning, but cannot hide the fact that your additions are wrong. You have inserted into the article All climate models had predicted 2006 would set record temperatures. This appears to be a fact entirely of your own invention, and completely sourceless, as well as being wrong (assuming you really mean climate models). a climate model which includes the observations and predictions Giese made - what does this mean? A climate model that includes predictions? IMHO the word "about" was not required in an encyclopedia when talking about averaged annual temperatures - sheer revisionism. You needed it to be exactly 4 years to make your fantasy prediction make any sense. I've reverted it again to remove your falsehoods William M. Connolley 19:06, 27 January 2007 (UTC)
RonCram, yes... i deleted the entry, and William has summed up my opposition quite accurately. As you may remember this paper was discussed on the Talk:List_of_scientists_opposing_global_warming_consensus - so i do know the paper. And i cannot say that your entry in any way is representative of it. I didn't edit it - because there wasn't anything to salvage. -- Kim D. Petersen 23:45, 27 January 2007 (UTC)
Still you shift and turn. You have, finally, removed the blatant untruths from your text. However now B+G are no longer predicting anything, still less anything that has come true, there is no obvious claim for notability - other than it including the quote you like. Now you are left with your main point being OR: that GCMs don't consider climate shifts. You bolster this with your reading of climate forcings, but yet again you are wrong. The regime shift that B+G consider is internal to the ocean-atmos system (well, mostly in the ocean) not an *external* forcing at all. So yes, coupled GCMs contain the same physics and may well have such regime shifts. Without some backup, your assertion that these *aren't* considered is nothing but OR on your part. I am not required to demonstrate the falsity of words you add: you are required to add only verifiable sourced material: which your "main point" isn't William M. Connolley 19:38, 29 January 2007 (UTC)
Took out the predicted bit as I don't see a prediction in their paper. Mainly just a caution regarding uncertainties in observed natural cycles and they point out a ...similar, but opposite in sign, pattern as that seen prior to the 1976 climate shift and emphasize the importance of understanding the separation between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in the climate system. Let's not read more into the article than is there. Vsmith 02:24, 30 January 2007 (UTC)
RC, your shifting of ground is amazing! A direct quote from you is The main point is that the IPCC's climate models do not consider an important theory of climate shifts just above. Now that this bit has been removed, you have changed your "main point" yet again (previous shifts, you'll recall, include the "prediction" that wasn't). The entry remains non-notable; removed William M. Connolley 10:03, 1 February 2007 (UTC)
Lord Monckton has a very readable analysis. Here are some excerpts:
You can read the full report here. [22] RonCram 01:00, 3 February 2007 (UTC)
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