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There's new polling for GA and NC: [1] Prcc27 ( talk) 18:33, 22 July 2019 (UTC)
Thoughts? Humanengr ( talk) 03:12, 31 August 2019 (UTC)
How about compiling a map (or rather one for each potential dem candidate against the incumbent) that quickly gives an overview of the red and blue states, and projects the electoral college? Should be relatively easy to do from the tables, and would provide a good overview. -- 91.41.47.165 ( talk) 00:44, 11 September 2019 (UTC)
What about Illinois? Greenparties1 ( talk) 17:44, 3 January 2020 (UTC)
It will be good to hide all former candidates polls, it'll make page much clearer. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 78.8.185.127 ( talk) 22:08, 13 February 2020 (UTC)
I suggest that the dates format be changed to one rationally table sortable. Deancarmeli ( talk) 13:23, 16 April 2020 (UTC)
Hello there, in 2016, we had decided to report on Wikipedia 2016 statewide polling for 2016 presidential election only individual state polls. As a consequence of this decision, tracking surveys polling all States in same conditions had been banned from Wikipedia statewide polling page. It appears « CivicScience/Microsoft Research/MSN (MRP) » polls recently reported on this page is a tracking poll of all states. Previous rules would have banned these CivicScience/Microsoft Research/MSN (MRP) polls. I personaly also think we should ban these polls. What are your opinions about that? Sthubertliege ( talk) 16:30, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
I agree, they are not very serious. The margins of lead are so unrealistic ! I suggest we should ban these polls. Sthubertliege ( talk) 06:41, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
Hi, I'm not aware of whether it's just me, but the chart in the "Polling aggregation in swing states" section appears to be broken, as it's not loading. I've tried three different browsers, and when I tried to edit it to find what was broken and why it wasn't showing up, it began to load and then transmogrified into a black bar that caused the page width to expand substantially. Phinbart ( talk) 14:33, 25 August 2020 (UTC)
The figure is very crowded. I would remove New Hampshire and Kansas and other states, which are not swing states. 2800:200:E200:763B:A14B:69BF:E2F0:C04E ( talk) 17:52, 30 October 2020 (UTC)
Can someone create a Polling Average Map. Alhanuty ( talk) 00:45, 12 September 2020 (UTC)
Please include in the list.
51% Biden 39% Trump
Thanks.
-- The Pollster ( talk) 14:04, 19 September 2020 (UTC)
Here is the first VT poll of 2020 by Vermont Public Radio:
Biden+24% vs. Trump
http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september
Please include in the state table. Thanks. -- The Pollster ( talk) 11:29, 22 September 2020 (UTC)
I recently made the map, using the most recent poll for each state. However, another user pointed out that the polls for some states were outdated or unrealistic, and I found that using only the most recent poll would require many frequent updates for some states. I also noticed that the map in the previous election used different colors for polls older than September. So I propose the following criteria for a more realistic and stable map:
What do you think? Heitordp ( talk) 05:20, 24 September 2020 (UTC)
I have updated the map, using the start dates as opposed to the end dates for determining what counts as September. This excluded California and Idaho, wondering if this should be changed. I do not particularly like that we have Kansas included with one poll with 800 voters of an undisclosed voter base btw. Also, what do we do for places like me2 that do not have margins of error listed? I just put them as outside margin of error because I counted the MoE as 0. Lastly, what do we do if it is the same as the margin of error, like with Mn? I just had it as within MoE. I also noticed the current map by current standards was pretty outdated. Przemysl15 ( talk) 07:36, 25 September 2020 (UTC) Also should I have gone with a darker grey? Przemysl15 ( talk) 07:39, 25 September 2020 (UTC)
Thanks for updating the map. To answer your questions, I suggest including polls where most of the dates are in September. It's arbitrary, but eventually it won't matter as more polls get added. For polls that don't provide a margin of error, use the margin from another poll with a similar sample size, or use this calculator (for population size, put 250,000, about the smallest number of votes in any state or district in the previous election; increasing this number further practically doesn't affect the result). Also note that the margin of error is plus or minus, so the difference between the two top candidates needs to be more than twice the margin of error to be outside of it. If it's exactly twice, I also think that we should consider it as within the margin.
There were some extra commas in the code that prevented the gray color from displaying correctly, so I fixed it. I also updated the map based on some new polls and considering the margin of error plus or minus. But now 20 states and 2 districts are gray, making the map not look very useful. So I suggest expanding the criteria:
If this is too complicated, an easier alternative would be to use the aggregate polls and color shades based on the leads, for example gray <5%, light 5-10%, medium 10-15%, dark >15%. What do you think? Heitordp ( talk) 16:16, 27 September 2020 (UTC)
I updated the map based on the expanded criteria above and newer polls. I think that the map reflects the situation better now. Heitordp ( talk) 01:37, 5 October 2020 (UTC)
I noticed that SM does polling for all 50.5 states, and they released them last week. They were put up by 538.com, and then by you guys. Then you took them down. Why? There are several states where these are the only data available. What do you have against these people? could someone put them back up? Arglebargle79 ( talk) 12:08, 28 September 2020 (UTC)
My gad, they're plenty of Trump supporters accounts are messing around the wiki edits..... This is so bad & disgraceful.... vandalizing anything on the internet. Can't they just report these guys? Syaz351 ( talk) 13:15, 3 October 2020 (UTC)
Since when are Alaska and Montana swing states? They have been "Safe R" since like forever, and have only 7 electoral votes between them.
They only clutter the diagram, and should be removed. Missouri and South Carolina could be removed on the same grounds, "Safe [X]". There's a reason California is not there.
HandsomeFella ( talk) 21:40, 18 October 2020 (UTC)
Anyone else see all the polling data disappear? I've got it all saved in another spreadsheet in any case, but I came looking for updates! — Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.123.249.40 ( talk) 22:38, 3 November 2020 (UTC)
![]() | This article is rated List-class on Wikipedia's
content assessment scale. It is of interest to the following WikiProjects: | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
There's new polling for GA and NC: [1] Prcc27 ( talk) 18:33, 22 July 2019 (UTC)
Thoughts? Humanengr ( talk) 03:12, 31 August 2019 (UTC)
How about compiling a map (or rather one for each potential dem candidate against the incumbent) that quickly gives an overview of the red and blue states, and projects the electoral college? Should be relatively easy to do from the tables, and would provide a good overview. -- 91.41.47.165 ( talk) 00:44, 11 September 2019 (UTC)
What about Illinois? Greenparties1 ( talk) 17:44, 3 January 2020 (UTC)
It will be good to hide all former candidates polls, it'll make page much clearer. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 78.8.185.127 ( talk) 22:08, 13 February 2020 (UTC)
I suggest that the dates format be changed to one rationally table sortable. Deancarmeli ( talk) 13:23, 16 April 2020 (UTC)
Hello there, in 2016, we had decided to report on Wikipedia 2016 statewide polling for 2016 presidential election only individual state polls. As a consequence of this decision, tracking surveys polling all States in same conditions had been banned from Wikipedia statewide polling page. It appears « CivicScience/Microsoft Research/MSN (MRP) » polls recently reported on this page is a tracking poll of all states. Previous rules would have banned these CivicScience/Microsoft Research/MSN (MRP) polls. I personaly also think we should ban these polls. What are your opinions about that? Sthubertliege ( talk) 16:30, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
I agree, they are not very serious. The margins of lead are so unrealistic ! I suggest we should ban these polls. Sthubertliege ( talk) 06:41, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
Hi, I'm not aware of whether it's just me, but the chart in the "Polling aggregation in swing states" section appears to be broken, as it's not loading. I've tried three different browsers, and when I tried to edit it to find what was broken and why it wasn't showing up, it began to load and then transmogrified into a black bar that caused the page width to expand substantially. Phinbart ( talk) 14:33, 25 August 2020 (UTC)
The figure is very crowded. I would remove New Hampshire and Kansas and other states, which are not swing states. 2800:200:E200:763B:A14B:69BF:E2F0:C04E ( talk) 17:52, 30 October 2020 (UTC)
Can someone create a Polling Average Map. Alhanuty ( talk) 00:45, 12 September 2020 (UTC)
Please include in the list.
51% Biden 39% Trump
Thanks.
-- The Pollster ( talk) 14:04, 19 September 2020 (UTC)
Here is the first VT poll of 2020 by Vermont Public Radio:
Biden+24% vs. Trump
http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september
Please include in the state table. Thanks. -- The Pollster ( talk) 11:29, 22 September 2020 (UTC)
I recently made the map, using the most recent poll for each state. However, another user pointed out that the polls for some states were outdated or unrealistic, and I found that using only the most recent poll would require many frequent updates for some states. I also noticed that the map in the previous election used different colors for polls older than September. So I propose the following criteria for a more realistic and stable map:
What do you think? Heitordp ( talk) 05:20, 24 September 2020 (UTC)
I have updated the map, using the start dates as opposed to the end dates for determining what counts as September. This excluded California and Idaho, wondering if this should be changed. I do not particularly like that we have Kansas included with one poll with 800 voters of an undisclosed voter base btw. Also, what do we do for places like me2 that do not have margins of error listed? I just put them as outside margin of error because I counted the MoE as 0. Lastly, what do we do if it is the same as the margin of error, like with Mn? I just had it as within MoE. I also noticed the current map by current standards was pretty outdated. Przemysl15 ( talk) 07:36, 25 September 2020 (UTC) Also should I have gone with a darker grey? Przemysl15 ( talk) 07:39, 25 September 2020 (UTC)
Thanks for updating the map. To answer your questions, I suggest including polls where most of the dates are in September. It's arbitrary, but eventually it won't matter as more polls get added. For polls that don't provide a margin of error, use the margin from another poll with a similar sample size, or use this calculator (for population size, put 250,000, about the smallest number of votes in any state or district in the previous election; increasing this number further practically doesn't affect the result). Also note that the margin of error is plus or minus, so the difference between the two top candidates needs to be more than twice the margin of error to be outside of it. If it's exactly twice, I also think that we should consider it as within the margin.
There were some extra commas in the code that prevented the gray color from displaying correctly, so I fixed it. I also updated the map based on some new polls and considering the margin of error plus or minus. But now 20 states and 2 districts are gray, making the map not look very useful. So I suggest expanding the criteria:
If this is too complicated, an easier alternative would be to use the aggregate polls and color shades based on the leads, for example gray <5%, light 5-10%, medium 10-15%, dark >15%. What do you think? Heitordp ( talk) 16:16, 27 September 2020 (UTC)
I updated the map based on the expanded criteria above and newer polls. I think that the map reflects the situation better now. Heitordp ( talk) 01:37, 5 October 2020 (UTC)
I noticed that SM does polling for all 50.5 states, and they released them last week. They were put up by 538.com, and then by you guys. Then you took them down. Why? There are several states where these are the only data available. What do you have against these people? could someone put them back up? Arglebargle79 ( talk) 12:08, 28 September 2020 (UTC)
My gad, they're plenty of Trump supporters accounts are messing around the wiki edits..... This is so bad & disgraceful.... vandalizing anything on the internet. Can't they just report these guys? Syaz351 ( talk) 13:15, 3 October 2020 (UTC)
Since when are Alaska and Montana swing states? They have been "Safe R" since like forever, and have only 7 electoral votes between them.
They only clutter the diagram, and should be removed. Missouri and South Carolina could be removed on the same grounds, "Safe [X]". There's a reason California is not there.
HandsomeFella ( talk) 21:40, 18 October 2020 (UTC)
Anyone else see all the polling data disappear? I've got it all saved in another spreadsheet in any case, but I came looking for updates! — Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.123.249.40 ( talk) 22:38, 3 November 2020 (UTC)