![]() | This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 |
These are explanations of TBR-qed for his plan:
S&L are indeed psychologists who focus on the “psychology of categorical induction.” But their first 2 sentences—framing of the problem with Hume and the “fact” of sunrise— connects them directly to the WP article example of sunrise & its broader concern for justification. That is why I suggest relating 4 more scholars to S&L’s sample to show how modern scholars superficially adopt Goodman’s formalized knowledge while ignoring philosophical concerns—with negative results. I add Duhem & Dewey to show long-standing rejection of enumerative induction. I add Popper (who accepted the validity of sunrise) to support Hume & to critique S&L “induction as scientific methodology,” that conflates method of Duhem & Dewey with modern social science methods, including economist Thaler. I would leave [Inductive reasoning] & [Inductivism] unchanged to report more traditional treatments of induction.
I have no opinion, because I don't have yet a clear understanding of the plan. So, I will only mention points that come to my mind.
Regarding S&L are indeed psychologists who focus on the “psychology of categorical induction”
I am guessing that the key word here is "psychology", because I don't see what would be an example of a "non categorical induction", except the cases where we have difficulty to make the induction because we are uncertain about the category. Therefore, in a way, it's always categorical. Collections in which the similar elements are distinguished by space-time coordinates are special kind of categories, but I don't see that the arguments to reject induction are specific to this kind of categories.
Regarding But their first 2 sentences—framing of the problem with Hume and the “fact” of sunrise— connects them directly to the WP article example of sunrise & its broader concern for justification
I should point out that the example of sunrise in the article is biased. There is an implicit assumption that there is an observed induction and, moreover, that this observed induction is explained by the use of an ampliative rule, which thus need justification. As editors, we do not have to start the article by making a big assumption with no basis. No matter what the sources say, our terminology and our way to organize the article is our choice as editors. A source makes this assumption or it does not make it and it must be used accordingly in our article. But, I don't think that you had that aspect in mind when you wrote that sentence. Your point, I believe, is that you agree that we should have a link with the philosophical concern for justification.
Regarding That is why I suggest relating 4 more scholars to S&L’s sample to show how modern scholars superficially adopt Goodman’s formalized knowledge while ignoring philosophical concerns—with negative results
I did not know much about Goodman, but I just read
[1] and I found it very interesting theoretically, but also a very good example of a source that makes the big assumption that induction exists as a set of ampliative inference rules, not only as observed processes. So, he goes into a very interesting (but useless) argument how these inference rules can be "justified", just as we "justify" deductive rules. But, there is no evidence at all that ampliative inference rules are used. We only have evidence that inductive processes occur, which is completely different. These observed inductive processes do not need to be justified, as many pointed out. They only need to be explained and the simplest explanation is the use of an hidden background knowledge together with normal non ampliative rules.
Regarding I add Duhem & Dewey to show long-standing rejection of enumerative induction
this seems to suggest that only this particular form of ampliative inductive reasoning is ruled out. That is a big claim. Of course, (observed) inductive reasoning does not need justification, because it is observed. However, I would say that any form of ampliative rule is ruled out and I would be very surprised that no argument was provided in the literature to reject the extraordinary claim that an ampliative rule, i.e., a fallacy, can be useful.
Regarding I add Popper (who accepted the validity of sunrise) to support Hume & to critique S&L “induction as scientific methodology,” that conflates method of Duhem & Dewey with modern social science methods, including economist Thaler
I think the main contribution of Popper on the problem of induction is his very natural proposal that the use of ampliative rules is a myth and that the observed inductive processes are more naturally explained by an evolutionary process that created the required hidden background knowledge. He used a different terminology. What I call "ampliative rules" here, Popper called it "induction" and, what I call "observed induction processes" here, Popper called it "growth of knowledge".
Regarding I would leave [Inductive reasoning] & [Inductivism] unchanged to report more traditional treatments of induction
, yes let us focus on this article.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 01:52, 9 May 2020 (UTC)
Please relate your answers to Popper's practice and to my section on sunrise. Thanks. TBR-qed ( talk) 14:53, 9 May 2020 (UTC)
extra explanation
|
---|
Consider the following incorrect argument from the observed q="here is a white swan" to the universal p'="all swans are white". Seeing this argument, one might conclude that the fallacy ∃x α(x) ⊧ ∀x α(x) was used (I made up that fallacy, but it more or less corresponds to what is some times called
Hasty_generalization). However, the person who draw the incorrect conclusion p' might say, no I used the rule p → q, q ⊧ p, which is the fallacy
affirming the consequent. Indeed, if we take p= p'∧q, then we have p → q. So, from the observed q, using the fallacy, we can infer p and then logically infer p' (because p= p'∧q). The details are not important, we could have many other examples, to illustrate that there is an important difference between an observed process in which some conclusion was drawn given some premises and the actual rules of inference that were used. We cannot know what were the rules, unless the person writes in the margin the rules that were used. Even this can be misleading, as illustrated by Newton's famous claim that he used inductive inference rules to infer his theory from observations alone, which we know cannot work. (On purpose, I have not respected the terminology used by Newton, because there would be a cyclic issue if I tried to explain a terminology by using a different and non consistent terminology.)
|
These are rules to classify observed processes, not to explain them. They are not basic inference rules similar to the deductive rules of inference. They exist at a completely different level.... normative rules of inductive inference that are generally accepted in the scientific community. One such rule is that properties that do not vary much across category instances are more projectible across the whole category than properties that vary more.
extra explanation
|
---|
These rules have not much to do with the deductive or inductive explanatory rules that could explain them, just as we have illustrated before. The explanatory inference rules are hidden and they cannot be justified by these observed rules, because there are a lot of things behind these observed rules, a lot of background knowledge, etc. To put it in another way, the inductive method of reasoning considered in S&L are emerging methods. They emerge from a background knowledge, which includes some fundamental empirical or perhaps metaphysical laws that are assumed. They are not basic inference rules similar to the deductive rules of inference. They exist at a completely different level. Some of these rules could be theorem based on some properties assigned to the categories, but that would be almost the same thing: we would need laws to verify that these properties hold.
|
extra explanation
|
---|
The point here is that, if someone has discovered a new inference rule that is ampliative, that is a big big deal. Let's keep in mind that we are talking about the "truth" of scientific laws, after corroborations. If we have a new logic with ampliative rules for this kind of truth, it is a big big deal. So big that it should totally change the face of logic. In fact, historically, logic has always been the logic of the practical truth used in science. Mathematics itself is only a tool for science. So it should lead to a new branch of mathematics based on this new logic of science. So, I am sorry, but S&L have not proposed that. I am aware that
Goodman proposed a very interesting way to "justify" such a new logic using a notion of equilibrium, but this does not mean that we have found this new logic and, even if we have found such a new logic, it does not mean that it is the one used in science. Again, it would be a very big deal. In any case, our article cannot be written under this assumption. So, it should be only an option and the terminology should make it clear, from the start, that there is another option.
|
I don't see in this paragraph where (ampliative) inductive rules enter into play. I don't see the two options: justifying these inductive rules or explaining the observed inductive processes without using these inductive rules. My personal opinion is that Popper is right that the first option is pointless, because there is a much simpler explanation that do not require the inductive rules. In any case, the problem of induction is certainly not how to do the first option only.The problem of induction is the philosophical question of whether knowledge humans gain by inductive reasoning can be as warranted as knowledge they gain by deductive reasoning—the alternative method of human reasoning.[1] How can one infer that observing a unique sample of an object or event is evidence of an unobservable universal kind or class of object or event?
extra explanation
|
---|
I am guessing that the paradigm in your first paragraph is simply that we can ignore or at the least not refer to inference rules as a way to explain observed reasoning processes. The suggested paradigm is that we have different kind of observed processes that we classify in terms of rules, the inductive ones and the deductive ones, but these rules are only ways to classify processes, not some kind of hidden laws to explain them. The question then becomes how the (descriptive) inductive rules can be as warranted as the (descriptive) deductive rules. This is confusing. It hides the possibility that the inductive rules (as description of observed processes) can be explained without using inductive inference rules (as laws used to explain observed processes). A better paradigm is that we simply want to explain what is observed using rules of inference and we accept that these rules interact and must be considered as one set of rules. It is fine to consider the option of adding inductive rules to this set, but it must be only one option. Another option is that we don't need to do that, because there is another way to explain what is observed.
|
I am not attach to any particular terminology as long as we use a terminology that does not conflate different concepts and that we use it consistently from the start. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 17:57, 9 May 2020 (UTC)
It seems that my attempt to explain my understanding of the perspective of Popper and many other philosophers on the problem of induction failed. You seem to say, I paraphrase, "I don't understand because here is my perspective and I cannot see how your perspective match with my perspective." It is surprising that you don't see a match, because you seem to attribute your perspective to Popper (Objective Knowledge:10,20,26). So, instead of trying again to explain "(ampliative) inductive rules", etc., I will try to discuss your understanding of Popper, your understanding of the inductive method and above all your understanding of the problem of induction. For a start, can you give one or more excerpts from Objective knowledge that correspond to the inductive method that you attribute to Popper, because I don't see where Popper has described the inductive method as you suggest that he did. If it is not from Popper (and the reference Objective Knowledge 10, 10, 26 was a mistake), please provide the correct reference and some excerpts, so that I can be certain about your sources. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 19:21, 10 May 2020 (UTC)
Here Popper endorses the very theory he rejectscould you be more explicit about the theory that he endorses in p.20, but elsewhere rejects. It seems that this theory should be implicit in his third usage p.20, but I would like that you spell out explicitly what is this (general) theory that you think Popper inconsistently endorses in p 20. Second, in the sentence
How is it possible that knowledge of earth’s rotation does[n]’t falsify all examples?, you speak of "examples", but examples of what? It's not only that I don't know the examples that you refer to. I also don't know what is exemplified. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 01:01, 12 May 2020 (UTC)
I just want to summarize what are my concerns. The article should not in the voice of Wikipedia implicitly conflate two notions of induction:
I think the first notion is the standard concept of induction in philosophy or may be it depends of the author. For example, I think Goodman refers to rules of inferences when he explains how induction can be justified. The same terminology "induction" for totally different concepts might create some confusion. In addition, the article must distinguish between
For example, Popper argues that the causal relation between observations of sunrises and the belief in the law "the sun rises every day" is nonexistent. I am only saying that the article should not have Wikipedia implicitly adopt one of these two views, when there is no consensus about it in the literature.
However, I must say that most of the article is fine with regard to these concerns. There are the images on the left side, which incorrectly assume an inference from observations of sunrises to the corresponding law. There might be nothing else. I would have to read it again.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 21:57, 13 May 2020 (UTC)
I feel bad a bit, because we have cluttered this talk page with a long discussion that apparently was pointless. I hope that others such as Biogeographist have not been moved away by this. For what it's worth, I retract any support that I had in favor of TBR-qed plan, because I suspect that it is based on an incorrect interpretation of texts, which are taken out of context. However, my opinion about the value of S&L did not change. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 20:30, 13 May 2020 (UTC)
Notes
I’m glad Biogeo has returned to the discussion, so now I can ask both of you a question that has dogged me since beginning to edit WP. Please humor me, in the interest of improving the encyclopedia. As Biogeo gently put it, I have been judged “idiosyncratic” from the first, engaging in original research, and violating NPV. I reject these charges for the following reasons.
My first post revised the existing article on Instrumentalism. Its flaw was to ignore John Dewey who, for decades, was the philosopher spokesman for that “school.” Excluding Dewey completely violated NPV.
My revision described Dewey and Popper as representative supporter and critic of the school, followed by numerous social science examples of current debate on their positions. Critics reverted my post, arguing that I should just have added a reference to Dewey to the existing conventional article.
I found that impossible, because Dewey had “reconstructed” the debate. This required me to reframe the topic neutrally to include both positions. I find that same imperative in Problem of induction. I am not being original or violating NPV to try to define both the activity and the problem of induction in precise terms applicable to objective discussion of all positions taken. My sandbox draft is the current result.
I hope you will not dismiss my effort for being idiosyncratic. I hope you will critique my effort if it fails to achieve my purpose within WP parameters. That should be possible without entering into philosophical minutia, if I demonstrate familiarity with the representative positions. I think you might even enjoy seeing Popper confronted by a worthy adversary. TBR-qed ( talk) 20:25, 14 May 2020 (UTC)
@ TBR-qed: I can appreciate that you don't like my judgment of your draft as idiosyncratic, but after looking at it again that's still my verdict.
Above, your response described (if I understand you correctly) an analogous "reconstruction" and "reframing" that you attempted in another article. I agree that you have done some reconstructing and reframing of the problem of induction in your draft, but it seems narrowly done, which is what I mean by idiosyncratic. If you were aiming in your draft for a more comprehensive and neutral perspective, as you claim above, and not merely a change of perspective to your own point of view, then you haven't yet succeeded. Your draft reads like your own original argument, and not a very clear one.
The following quotation is an example of a more comprehensive and neutral perspective, from the lead to the article on the problem of induction at the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: "A number of philosophers have attempted solutions to the problem, but a significant number have embraced his conclusion that it is insoluble. There is also a wide spectrum of opinion on the significance of the problem. Some have argued that Hume's argument does not establish any far-reaching skeptical conclusion, either because it was never intended to, or because the argument is in some way misformulated. Yet many have regarded it as one of the most profound philosophical challenges imaginable..."
That your draft is original research is clear enough from the lack of citations, although one could also point to other indicators of original research. To be clear,
no original research means: don't make claims or arguments that are not attributable to a reliable source, and don't use statements from a source to reach a conclusion that is not in the source. You cite Sloman and Lagnado's article, of course, but I don't think Sloman and Lagnado's article is a good basis for radically reconstructing this article, as explained above. Sloman and Lagnado could be used for some details, but despite its title it is not appropriate as a model for massively reconstructing this article. When you look up Sloman and Lagnado in
Google Scholar and look at the list of publications that cite it, you see that almost none of them are about the problem of induction! Scholars who have found Sloman and Lagnado's article useful enough to cite are not generally writing about the problem of induction. There is an interesting exception: Jackson, Alexander (June 2019).
"How to solve Hume's problem of induction".
Episteme. 16 (2): 157–174.
doi:
10.1017/epi.2017.32. {{
cite journal}}
: Invalid |ref=harv
(
help) Jackson's citation of Sloman and Lagnado's article is a good example of the minor role Sloman and Lagnado would have in a philosophical discussion of the problem of induction, although Jackson's article is not a good model for reconstructing this article either, since Jackson was making an original argument and was not attempting to follow Wikipedia's
WP:NOR and
WP:NPOV policies.
Perhaps a better strategy for adding the information that you want to add to this article would be: Find a highly cited source that contains the arguments that you think are important and unrepresented in the article, and then accurately describe that source in a new subsection in Problem of induction § Notable interpretations. Or two subsections, if there are different arguments in two different sources. Biogeographist ( talk) 21:03, 15 May 2020 (UTC)
revision ready for further critique by September? In addition, you stopped any effort to have a minimal required shared understanding when you wrote
I can't follow you any farther into Popper's metaphysical third world.That's not the way it works in Wikipedia. There is no way editors can work together on an article without sharing a minimal understanding of the literature.
[you] can't follow [me] any farther into Popper's metaphysical third worldand then add that your
revision [will be] ready for further critique by September.
Lede doesn't need sources.More precisely, statements in the lead don't need sources when they summarize content that appears later in the article with citations, but the lead often includes other statements that are not repeated again in the article: these statements would need sources. Biogeographist ( talk) 22:07, 20 May 2020 (UTC)
DM found the entire article biased because it assumes that this reasoning method starts with observation: an empirical claim. This claim ignores Popper’s thesis that reasoning starts with a theoretical conjecture about an observed-&-known phenomenon.I did not mention this. What I mentioned on April 23rd is that the article misses a key ingredient in Popper's solution, namely, his view that the problems in explaining the growth of scientific knowledge are part of the problems in the theory of evolution in general. I also mentioned a bias in the article, but finally, after looking at it, it turned out to be only Broad quote and the captions for the pictures, two points that TBR-qed disagree with, which is fine. But he also does not intend to discuss these points or any other aspects of his understanding further. This, on the other hand, is problematic.
I don't understand "(ampliative) inductive rules." I think it involves your effort to distinguish between explaining processes and explaining rules, which are both distinct from observing processes,were you implicitly rejecting that there is a fundamental distinction between the so called "Induction Rules" in Sloman and Lagnado and what Hume calls arguments? This is very important, because this is definitively part of a minimal understanding that editors (except those that only look at grammar and things like that) must share before they can work on this article.
Yes, regarding TBR-qed's plan, I expected that you would say that he is free to do that. I do not disagree at all. In fact, I also had the same thought. However, I feel that I have to offer an alternative approach, which is to try to achieve a consensus on some minimal shared understanding.
Regarding evolutionary epistemology, Popper had this concept even before LSD was published. Here is a quote from Popper of a text originally written around 1952. This quote refers to LSD which was being translated at the time.
Sometimes I have also described it as the degree to which the theory in question ‘has been able to prove its fitness to survive by standing up to tests’. But as the context of such passages shows, I meant by this no more than a report about the past fitness of the theory to survive severe tests: like Darwin, I did not assume that something (whether an animal or a theory) that has shown its fitness to survive tests by surviving them has shown its fitness to survive all, or most, or any, future tests.
— Popper, Karl, Realism and the Aim of Science (p. 64).
But of course, the notion might have existed way before Popper. That's not important. What is important is who has seen the significance of this connection and used it. Popper understood that it was a fundamental ingredient in the solution to the problem of induction.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 10:40, 21 May 2020 (UTC)
If in order to know anything we must first know that our principles are eternal a priori truths, and our facts absolute and immutable, it is painfully clear that knowledge is impossible, because we have not even now such facts and principles. But then we do not need them. All the equipment that we need to start upon the discovery of truth is a willingness to experiment and a willingness to learn. Granting these (and they are by no means common qualities), our experience will supply us with abundance of material. Indeed the chief difficulty will be to select the best and most workable from among the multitudinous suggestions and analogies with which the world bombards an actively inquiring mind. Fortunately there is abundant time for such selection. It has been going on for ages, and even the lowest organisms are to some extent selective in their reactions to stimulation. The selectiveness of man is enormous and all-pervading, and he is also conscious of it. Is it a wonder, then, that the results of this whole history should have crystallized into 'axioms' which now seem self-evident, and into 'facts' which now seem solid? Yet the logical value of the products which our ordinary thinking now takes for granted is not original but acquired. Nor are they, even now, immutable, or worthy of superstitious reverence; but they are secured against frivolous attacks.
{{
cite journal}}
: Invalid |ref=harv
(
help) This article does not propose anything like an evolutionary epistemology (it just happens to mention Darwin) but the similarity to Popper in some other aspects is striking. In fact, looking at the list of publications that have cited Ritchie's paper (not many), one sees that Lakatos cited Ritchie and even combined Ritchie's paper and Popper's LSD into one term: "the Ritchie-Popper argument"! Very interesting—I did not know this.
Biogeographist (
talk)
14:13, 21 May 2020 (UTC)
The revert of TBR-qed major edits should not be interpreted to mean that the article cannot be improved, of course. In my view, the article mostly contain excellent well sourced content. Something bothers me a little though. It seems to fail to distinguish between different descriptions of induction, which may or may not be equivalent and thus should not be considered a priori as one and the same concept of induction in Wikipedia. The challenge here is that not only different descriptions of induction seems to exist in the literature, but also different ways to distinguish between different descriptions seem to exist. It becomes easily a mess if one wants to consider all of this. On the bright side, I believe there is a classical notion of induction and it is not the notion of induction in Sloman & Lagnado, for example. I am not sure how we should manage this situation.
However, at the least, we should make sure that the article does not mess up different notions as if they were the same. I believe the article suffers from this kind of problems at few occasions. My main criteria is that the traditional notion of induction, even the probabilistic version, has clearly been rejected in philosophy, starting from ancient Greek and Indian philosophy and more recently with Hume. There has been many attempts to find a valid classical notion of induction, but no success. My favorite example is the entire work of Lakatos. He criticized Popper because he did not propose an inductive process and took for himself the task of finding inductive rules, but at the end he only obtained descriptive rules. He could not find rules that could be used by scientists and he acknowledged that. He argued that it was good enough, but many others philosophers noticed that it was not the original goal. For example, Feyerabend wrote in "Against Method" that Lakatos' methodology of scientific research programmes is epistemological anarchism in disguise and Musgrave made a similar comment. Anyway, if the article speaks of induction as inference rules that are used in practice and differ from deduction by the fact that they are uncertain or probabilistic, then a big red signal should be raised, because most likely if we look carefully at the source, we will see that it's not the classical notion of induction. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 03:23, 16 November 2020 (UTC)
I am not sure this big edit is an improvement. The problem of induction is one of the most challenging, if not the most challenging, subject in the philosophy of science and I think, we need the contribution of other editors here. It's going to be a challenge, if we want to make major modifications to this article. I intend to revert the last edits of TBR-qed. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 15:26, 15 November 2020 (UTC)
The first sentence in the lead is
The problem of induction is that this method of human reasoning, unlike its mate deduction, mysteriously and paradoxically creates illusions of knowledge of universal patterns out of fragments of experience.
It assumes from the start that there is an actual method of reasoning called induction and do not attribute this view to any philosopher. It is as if the encyclopedia states this as a fact. All recent edits of TBR-qed are based on this bias toward one point of view. Given that this is at the center of most debates on induction, this is not acceptable in Wikipedia. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 18:59, 15 November 2020 (UTC)
Dom’s and Bio’s reasons for reverting me are so flimsy that I cannot take them seriously.
Dom starts by asserting—without authoritative support—that the problem of induction is so large in the philosophy of science, that a single editor or a pair of psychologists can’t revise it. There must be a multitude of editors who presumably will agree on what the problem is. This is precisely why the existing article is obsolete. It is futile to keep repeating old inconclusive arguments
He goes on to deny the problem exists, asserting that my post is biased because I assume “that there is an actual method of reasoning called induction …” Ignoring centuries of philosophical debate, and the 9 scholars I discuss in the body of my post (which he has not seen), he seems to endorse Popper’s denial that inductive reasoning exists in the formal logical sense of deductive rules. I do NOT assume the existence of that which I analyze under the label of “problem of induction” Having judged the problem and the method to be illusions, he denies I have a right to examine ancient and modern debates about it. He is the biased one.
He condemns my reliance on two psychologists whose recent publication studies philosophers AND psychologists who practice and debate what they call induction.
Bio condemns my effort to reframe traditional debates in the terms currently employed by practitioners, labeling my definitions “unencyclopedic in tone.”
I will not permit these two to forbid my use of the lede to introduce the vocabulary currently used by practitioners of induction, nor to dictate which professional publications may be permitted to argue the illusions and facts of that kind of rationality.
I am going to restore and complete my revision, bringing the problem of induction into the 21st century. This not an uncyclopedic or biased enterprise. TBR-qed ( talk) 13:41, 16 November 2020 (UTC)
What do you think of the article on the problem of induction at the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy? I skimmed through it, and I think it would be a better model of what Wikipedia's article should be aiming for, although its style is not Wikipedia's style. I would like to hear TBR-qed's opinion of the SEP article (setting aside its interpretation of Popper, to which Dominic objected), and an explanation of how and why TBR-qed's approach would be different from the SEP article's general approach. Biogeographist ( talk) 23:31, 16 November 2020 (UTC)
Your replies have finally penetrated my ignorance of how I can use a sandbox to present a proposal rather than making a drastic revision. I shall do that. I shall review and comment on the SEP article. But first, let me make 2 assertions to show where I am coming from--which is doubtless as controversial as my content:
An encyclopedia is a living tool, not a crypt or mausoleum. Would it not be more useful to users of Wikipedia to learn how Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow perpetuates the problem of induction than to learn what Sextus Empiricus wrote about it? TBR-qed ( talk) 17:31, 17 November 2020 (UTC)
how Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow perpetuates the problem of induction. But keep in mind that such an account would need to be based on at least one secondary source to be included in Wikipedia. We can't make original arguments about primary sources ( WP:NOR), so if you're making original arguments about Kahneman and the other authors that you listed above at § Induction & deduction, Wikipedia is not the place to do it. WP:PSTS says: "Secondary or tertiary sources are needed to establish the topic's notability and to avoid novel interpretations of primary sources. All analyses and interpretive or synthetic claims about primary sources must be referenced to a secondary or tertiary source, and must not be an original analysis of the primary-source material by Wikipedia editors." Biogeographist ( talk) 18:39, 17 November 2020 (UTC)
Your points are well taken. I am making progress on my sandbox proposal which you can judge. I report my reaction to the SEP article.
RANSON ON SEP “The Problem of Induction.” First published Wed Mar 21, 2018 by Leah Henderson
Henderson’s discussion of Baysian probability (section 3.2.2) accurately states the problem of induction: “We want to infer not what the sample will be like, with a known hypothesis, rather we want to infer a hypothesis about the general situation or population, based on the observation of a limited sample.” I find this completely compatible with my opening statement: “The problem of induction is that this method of human reasoning, unlike its mate deduction, mysteriously and paradoxically creates illusions of knowledge of universal patterns [hypotheses] out of fragments of experience [limited but representative sample].”
Unfortunately, her opening paragraph does not state the problem. Instead it gives an example of the method of enumerative induction as the prototype of inductive inference. She follows with a common sense inference “from the observed to the unobserved, or to general laws… as ‘inductive inferences,’” further enforcing the belief that induction means counting observed samples as evidence of unobserved kinds, denying that other methods can legitimately be called inductive. This denial ignores the existence of a well-established scientific alternative—a terrible oversight which Sloman and Lagnado and I correct.
I present Duhem and Dewey as practitioners of scientific induction, which neither Henderson nor S&L do. The closest she comes is to identify Reichenbach’s “pragmatic vindication” of induction. Why not Dewey’s? To exclude Dewey’s Logic: the Theory of Inquiry is rank bias.
Henderson does not name Hume’s method enumerative induction. She attaches names recognizable only by philosophers to empirical-evidence-joined-to-conceptual-generalizations. “For convenience, we will refer to this claim of similarity or resemblance between observed and unobserved regularities as the ‘Uniformity Principle (UP)’. Sometimes it is also called the ‘Resemblance Principle’, or the ‘Principle of Uniformity of Nature’. S&L use the name common among psychologists: “similarity-based induction.” Both accept without debate that observable similarity is an empirical universal attribute of every sample of inductive inference.
Henderson and S&L accept without question Goodman’s premise that the attribute green is attached to emeralds by enumeration, and might change at any time. All ignore its scientific definition which cannot change metaphysically. None of its attributes is observable. All are predictable once kind is defined scientifically. “Emeralds are formed when chromium, vanadium, and iron are present in the mineral beryl. The varying presence of these three elements gives emerald its range of color.” Seeing Green: All About Emeralds - GIA www.gia.edu › seeing-green
Henderson’s “meta-induction (section 7.3) seems to encompass S&L’s “categorical induction,” but she is unaware of the psychologists’ idea, much less its similarity to the philosopher’s idea.
My conclusion is that Henderson’s piece does more to conceal the nature of the problem of induction than to clarify and resolve it. — Preceding unsigned comment added by TBR-qed ( talk • contribs) 18:32, 19 November 2020 (UTC)
To exclude Dewey's Logic: the Theory of Inquiry is rank bias.I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "rank bias", so I may just be restating your point, but I think Henderson's inclusion of Reichenbach and not Dewey reflects the fact that Reichenbach's book has been much more commonly discussed in scholarly accounts of the problem of induction than Dewey's book has been. This can be seen quickly, for example, on Google Scholar by searching for "problem of induction" in publications that cite Reichenbach's and Dewey's books; Reichenbach comes out far ahead of Dewey. Nevertheless, I will be interested to see what you say about Dewey and which secondary sources about him and the problem of induction you are summarizing. Biogeographist ( talk) 19:43, 19 November 2020 (UTC)
I am trying to relate secondary sources to primary sources to be more encyclopaedic. I hope you will help me correct my lapses rather than just counting them. TBR-qed ( talk) 17:15, 22 November 2020 (UTC)
@ TBR-qed: I just looked at this latest revision of your proposed changes to Problem of induction. I understand that it may not be finished yet, but overall there is a major problem with your method: You are just commenting on primary sources. This is the same method that you used to rewrite two previous articles, Instrumental and value rationality and Instrumental and value-rational action, and your rewritten versions of those articles have been appropriately tagged by Omnipaedista with the {{ Essay-like}} cleanup tag. Your method is not an appropriate method for Wikipedia, as it produces an original argumentative essay that violates the WP:NOR policy. If you want to produce content that is appropriate for inclusion in this article, you will need to adopt a different method: Instead of commenting on quotations from primary sources, find secondary sources about how those primary sources relate to the problem of induction, and then summarize the secondary sources. One can cite primary sources, but the content should be based mostly on secondary sources and should not make original arguments. This has already been explained above, and has probably been explained to you on other talk pages as well. Thanks, Biogeographist ( talk) 15:02, 21 November 2020 (UTC)
Some issues that jump out to me are editorializing in the lede "mysteriously and paradoxically creates illusions of knowledge" and it barely says anything about the early history of the problem of induction. For those interested in ancient philosophy (which, it is important to note, is not dead philosophy. There are modern Stoics, Epicureans, and Pyrrhonists, for example) it is an important subject. Teishin ( talk) 22:11, 21 November 2020 (UTC)
First, I consider the following sentence in the article:
The problem calls into question the traditional inductivist account of all empirical claims made in everyday life or through the scientific method, and, for that reason, C. D. Broad once said that "induction is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy".
This sentence plays a useful purpose, because indeed there is notable belief, justified or not, that knowledge grows through some kind of reasoning, thus inductive reasoning, because deductive reasoning is not ampliative. The first problem is that I don't feel it's written in a neutral manner. It's not attributed in a clear way. It's not attributed to Broad (except the quote of course), because on the contrary Broad is presented as an innocent witness of the fact. It is not clearly attributed to the traditional inductivist view, because the term "account" again suggests that it is an observed fact. The second problem is that it refers to all empirical claims, but there is no problem with claims of simple observations. It's a nice sentence, but it needs some work. To address the first problem I suggest the following
The traditional inductivist view is that all empirical claims, either made in everyday life or through the scientific method, can be justified through some form of reasoning. The problem is that many philosophers tried to find such a justification but their proposals were not accepted by others. Identifying the inductivist view as the scientific view, C. D. Broad once said that "induction is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy".
The middle sentence is not attributed, but that's ok, because it is well known. To address the second problem, "empirical claims" must be replaced by something else. I propose "claimed empirical laws". So, it becomes
The traditional inductivist view is that all claimed empirical laws, either in everyday life or through the scientific method, can be justified through some form of reasoning. The problem is that many philosophers tried to find such a justification but their proposals were not accepted by others. Identifying the inductivist view as the scientific view, C. D. Broad once said that "induction is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy".
Second, let see how this fits with the next sentence
In contrast, Karl Popper's critical rationalism claimed that induction is never used in science and proposed instead that science is based on the procedure of conjecturing hypotheses, deductively calculating consequences, and then empirically attempting to falsify them.
It could be simply:
In contrast, Karl Popper's critical rationalism claimed that inductive justifications are never used in science and proposed instead that science is based on the procedure of conjecturing hypotheses, deductively calculating consequences, and then empirically attempting to falsify them.
I addressed a problem of terminology here by replacing "induction" with "inductive justifications". Of course, Popper never claimed that the inductive relationships usually seen between laws and observations do not exist. If asked why do you accept that the sun raises on the east every day, he would have replied that he sees it every day, just like anyone else. Note that this is no justification at all for the inference of the law. If one is asked how can you infer B from A and one replies because I have A, one has provided no justification at all for the inference. In other words, he believed in the value of corroborations, just like every one else. The only thing he rejected is the existence of a rational justification for the laws.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 17:25, 9 December 2020 (UTC)
I consider the following sentence:
The problem of induction is the philosophical question of whether inductive reasoning leads to knowledge understood in the classic philosophical sense, [1] highlighting the apparent lack of justification for:
The problem I see with this sentence is that it refers to inductive reasoning which can refer to inductive justifications or to what is now seen as inductive methods in social science and in artificial intelligence or even simply to any relationship between a law and observations that corroborate it. These concepts are totally different and operate at completely different levels. The problem of induction is about missing justifications. For example, this is clearly explained in SEP. The first paragraph in SEP describes the well known relationship between laws and observations: if a kind of bread has nourished thus far, we are not surprised to see the (false) law that it will keep be nourishing. However, when it comes to the problem of induction, the expressions used in SEP are "on what grounds" and "arguments that do not serve". So, clearly, the problem is the missing justifications. Therefore, I suggest that we do not refer to the nowadays vague term "inductive reasoning" and focus on missing justifications. I propose
The problem of induction is the philosophical question of what are the justifications, if any, for any growth of knowledge understood in the classic philosophical sense that goes beyond a mere collection of observations [1], highlighting the apparent lack of justification in particular for:
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 18:26, 9 December 2020 (UTC)
References
I have submitted my sandbox proposal. I feel it demonstrates that the existing article is obsolete and that contaminated inductive reasoning exists at pandemic levels. Critique invited. TBR-qed ( talk) 17:02, 5 December 2020 (UTC)
it's unlikely that the other editors here would accept a whole replacement of this article by one written entirely by TBR-qed. The better approach is to consider whether any parts of it are suitable for merging into the existing article. Biogeographist ( talk) 23:09, 5 December 2020 (UTC)
The [criterion of adequacy] stated here may strike some readers as surprisingly strong. Given a specific logic of evidential support, how might it be shown to satisfy such a condition? Section 4 will show precisely how this condition is satisfied by the logic of evidential support articulated in Sections 1 through 3 of this article.
![]() | This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 1 | Archive 2 | Archive 3 |
These are explanations of TBR-qed for his plan:
S&L are indeed psychologists who focus on the “psychology of categorical induction.” But their first 2 sentences—framing of the problem with Hume and the “fact” of sunrise— connects them directly to the WP article example of sunrise & its broader concern for justification. That is why I suggest relating 4 more scholars to S&L’s sample to show how modern scholars superficially adopt Goodman’s formalized knowledge while ignoring philosophical concerns—with negative results. I add Duhem & Dewey to show long-standing rejection of enumerative induction. I add Popper (who accepted the validity of sunrise) to support Hume & to critique S&L “induction as scientific methodology,” that conflates method of Duhem & Dewey with modern social science methods, including economist Thaler. I would leave [Inductive reasoning] & [Inductivism] unchanged to report more traditional treatments of induction.
I have no opinion, because I don't have yet a clear understanding of the plan. So, I will only mention points that come to my mind.
Regarding S&L are indeed psychologists who focus on the “psychology of categorical induction”
I am guessing that the key word here is "psychology", because I don't see what would be an example of a "non categorical induction", except the cases where we have difficulty to make the induction because we are uncertain about the category. Therefore, in a way, it's always categorical. Collections in which the similar elements are distinguished by space-time coordinates are special kind of categories, but I don't see that the arguments to reject induction are specific to this kind of categories.
Regarding But their first 2 sentences—framing of the problem with Hume and the “fact” of sunrise— connects them directly to the WP article example of sunrise & its broader concern for justification
I should point out that the example of sunrise in the article is biased. There is an implicit assumption that there is an observed induction and, moreover, that this observed induction is explained by the use of an ampliative rule, which thus need justification. As editors, we do not have to start the article by making a big assumption with no basis. No matter what the sources say, our terminology and our way to organize the article is our choice as editors. A source makes this assumption or it does not make it and it must be used accordingly in our article. But, I don't think that you had that aspect in mind when you wrote that sentence. Your point, I believe, is that you agree that we should have a link with the philosophical concern for justification.
Regarding That is why I suggest relating 4 more scholars to S&L’s sample to show how modern scholars superficially adopt Goodman’s formalized knowledge while ignoring philosophical concerns—with negative results
I did not know much about Goodman, but I just read
[1] and I found it very interesting theoretically, but also a very good example of a source that makes the big assumption that induction exists as a set of ampliative inference rules, not only as observed processes. So, he goes into a very interesting (but useless) argument how these inference rules can be "justified", just as we "justify" deductive rules. But, there is no evidence at all that ampliative inference rules are used. We only have evidence that inductive processes occur, which is completely different. These observed inductive processes do not need to be justified, as many pointed out. They only need to be explained and the simplest explanation is the use of an hidden background knowledge together with normal non ampliative rules.
Regarding I add Duhem & Dewey to show long-standing rejection of enumerative induction
this seems to suggest that only this particular form of ampliative inductive reasoning is ruled out. That is a big claim. Of course, (observed) inductive reasoning does not need justification, because it is observed. However, I would say that any form of ampliative rule is ruled out and I would be very surprised that no argument was provided in the literature to reject the extraordinary claim that an ampliative rule, i.e., a fallacy, can be useful.
Regarding I add Popper (who accepted the validity of sunrise) to support Hume & to critique S&L “induction as scientific methodology,” that conflates method of Duhem & Dewey with modern social science methods, including economist Thaler
I think the main contribution of Popper on the problem of induction is his very natural proposal that the use of ampliative rules is a myth and that the observed inductive processes are more naturally explained by an evolutionary process that created the required hidden background knowledge. He used a different terminology. What I call "ampliative rules" here, Popper called it "induction" and, what I call "observed induction processes" here, Popper called it "growth of knowledge".
Regarding I would leave [Inductive reasoning] & [Inductivism] unchanged to report more traditional treatments of induction
, yes let us focus on this article.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 01:52, 9 May 2020 (UTC)
Please relate your answers to Popper's practice and to my section on sunrise. Thanks. TBR-qed ( talk) 14:53, 9 May 2020 (UTC)
extra explanation
|
---|
Consider the following incorrect argument from the observed q="here is a white swan" to the universal p'="all swans are white". Seeing this argument, one might conclude that the fallacy ∃x α(x) ⊧ ∀x α(x) was used (I made up that fallacy, but it more or less corresponds to what is some times called
Hasty_generalization). However, the person who draw the incorrect conclusion p' might say, no I used the rule p → q, q ⊧ p, which is the fallacy
affirming the consequent. Indeed, if we take p= p'∧q, then we have p → q. So, from the observed q, using the fallacy, we can infer p and then logically infer p' (because p= p'∧q). The details are not important, we could have many other examples, to illustrate that there is an important difference between an observed process in which some conclusion was drawn given some premises and the actual rules of inference that were used. We cannot know what were the rules, unless the person writes in the margin the rules that were used. Even this can be misleading, as illustrated by Newton's famous claim that he used inductive inference rules to infer his theory from observations alone, which we know cannot work. (On purpose, I have not respected the terminology used by Newton, because there would be a cyclic issue if I tried to explain a terminology by using a different and non consistent terminology.)
|
These are rules to classify observed processes, not to explain them. They are not basic inference rules similar to the deductive rules of inference. They exist at a completely different level.... normative rules of inductive inference that are generally accepted in the scientific community. One such rule is that properties that do not vary much across category instances are more projectible across the whole category than properties that vary more.
extra explanation
|
---|
These rules have not much to do with the deductive or inductive explanatory rules that could explain them, just as we have illustrated before. The explanatory inference rules are hidden and they cannot be justified by these observed rules, because there are a lot of things behind these observed rules, a lot of background knowledge, etc. To put it in another way, the inductive method of reasoning considered in S&L are emerging methods. They emerge from a background knowledge, which includes some fundamental empirical or perhaps metaphysical laws that are assumed. They are not basic inference rules similar to the deductive rules of inference. They exist at a completely different level. Some of these rules could be theorem based on some properties assigned to the categories, but that would be almost the same thing: we would need laws to verify that these properties hold.
|
extra explanation
|
---|
The point here is that, if someone has discovered a new inference rule that is ampliative, that is a big big deal. Let's keep in mind that we are talking about the "truth" of scientific laws, after corroborations. If we have a new logic with ampliative rules for this kind of truth, it is a big big deal. So big that it should totally change the face of logic. In fact, historically, logic has always been the logic of the practical truth used in science. Mathematics itself is only a tool for science. So it should lead to a new branch of mathematics based on this new logic of science. So, I am sorry, but S&L have not proposed that. I am aware that
Goodman proposed a very interesting way to "justify" such a new logic using a notion of equilibrium, but this does not mean that we have found this new logic and, even if we have found such a new logic, it does not mean that it is the one used in science. Again, it would be a very big deal. In any case, our article cannot be written under this assumption. So, it should be only an option and the terminology should make it clear, from the start, that there is another option.
|
I don't see in this paragraph where (ampliative) inductive rules enter into play. I don't see the two options: justifying these inductive rules or explaining the observed inductive processes without using these inductive rules. My personal opinion is that Popper is right that the first option is pointless, because there is a much simpler explanation that do not require the inductive rules. In any case, the problem of induction is certainly not how to do the first option only.The problem of induction is the philosophical question of whether knowledge humans gain by inductive reasoning can be as warranted as knowledge they gain by deductive reasoning—the alternative method of human reasoning.[1] How can one infer that observing a unique sample of an object or event is evidence of an unobservable universal kind or class of object or event?
extra explanation
|
---|
I am guessing that the paradigm in your first paragraph is simply that we can ignore or at the least not refer to inference rules as a way to explain observed reasoning processes. The suggested paradigm is that we have different kind of observed processes that we classify in terms of rules, the inductive ones and the deductive ones, but these rules are only ways to classify processes, not some kind of hidden laws to explain them. The question then becomes how the (descriptive) inductive rules can be as warranted as the (descriptive) deductive rules. This is confusing. It hides the possibility that the inductive rules (as description of observed processes) can be explained without using inductive inference rules (as laws used to explain observed processes). A better paradigm is that we simply want to explain what is observed using rules of inference and we accept that these rules interact and must be considered as one set of rules. It is fine to consider the option of adding inductive rules to this set, but it must be only one option. Another option is that we don't need to do that, because there is another way to explain what is observed.
|
I am not attach to any particular terminology as long as we use a terminology that does not conflate different concepts and that we use it consistently from the start. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 17:57, 9 May 2020 (UTC)
It seems that my attempt to explain my understanding of the perspective of Popper and many other philosophers on the problem of induction failed. You seem to say, I paraphrase, "I don't understand because here is my perspective and I cannot see how your perspective match with my perspective." It is surprising that you don't see a match, because you seem to attribute your perspective to Popper (Objective Knowledge:10,20,26). So, instead of trying again to explain "(ampliative) inductive rules", etc., I will try to discuss your understanding of Popper, your understanding of the inductive method and above all your understanding of the problem of induction. For a start, can you give one or more excerpts from Objective knowledge that correspond to the inductive method that you attribute to Popper, because I don't see where Popper has described the inductive method as you suggest that he did. If it is not from Popper (and the reference Objective Knowledge 10, 10, 26 was a mistake), please provide the correct reference and some excerpts, so that I can be certain about your sources. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 19:21, 10 May 2020 (UTC)
Here Popper endorses the very theory he rejectscould you be more explicit about the theory that he endorses in p.20, but elsewhere rejects. It seems that this theory should be implicit in his third usage p.20, but I would like that you spell out explicitly what is this (general) theory that you think Popper inconsistently endorses in p 20. Second, in the sentence
How is it possible that knowledge of earth’s rotation does[n]’t falsify all examples?, you speak of "examples", but examples of what? It's not only that I don't know the examples that you refer to. I also don't know what is exemplified. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 01:01, 12 May 2020 (UTC)
I just want to summarize what are my concerns. The article should not in the voice of Wikipedia implicitly conflate two notions of induction:
I think the first notion is the standard concept of induction in philosophy or may be it depends of the author. For example, I think Goodman refers to rules of inferences when he explains how induction can be justified. The same terminology "induction" for totally different concepts might create some confusion. In addition, the article must distinguish between
For example, Popper argues that the causal relation between observations of sunrises and the belief in the law "the sun rises every day" is nonexistent. I am only saying that the article should not have Wikipedia implicitly adopt one of these two views, when there is no consensus about it in the literature.
However, I must say that most of the article is fine with regard to these concerns. There are the images on the left side, which incorrectly assume an inference from observations of sunrises to the corresponding law. There might be nothing else. I would have to read it again.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 21:57, 13 May 2020 (UTC)
I feel bad a bit, because we have cluttered this talk page with a long discussion that apparently was pointless. I hope that others such as Biogeographist have not been moved away by this. For what it's worth, I retract any support that I had in favor of TBR-qed plan, because I suspect that it is based on an incorrect interpretation of texts, which are taken out of context. However, my opinion about the value of S&L did not change. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 20:30, 13 May 2020 (UTC)
Notes
I’m glad Biogeo has returned to the discussion, so now I can ask both of you a question that has dogged me since beginning to edit WP. Please humor me, in the interest of improving the encyclopedia. As Biogeo gently put it, I have been judged “idiosyncratic” from the first, engaging in original research, and violating NPV. I reject these charges for the following reasons.
My first post revised the existing article on Instrumentalism. Its flaw was to ignore John Dewey who, for decades, was the philosopher spokesman for that “school.” Excluding Dewey completely violated NPV.
My revision described Dewey and Popper as representative supporter and critic of the school, followed by numerous social science examples of current debate on their positions. Critics reverted my post, arguing that I should just have added a reference to Dewey to the existing conventional article.
I found that impossible, because Dewey had “reconstructed” the debate. This required me to reframe the topic neutrally to include both positions. I find that same imperative in Problem of induction. I am not being original or violating NPV to try to define both the activity and the problem of induction in precise terms applicable to objective discussion of all positions taken. My sandbox draft is the current result.
I hope you will not dismiss my effort for being idiosyncratic. I hope you will critique my effort if it fails to achieve my purpose within WP parameters. That should be possible without entering into philosophical minutia, if I demonstrate familiarity with the representative positions. I think you might even enjoy seeing Popper confronted by a worthy adversary. TBR-qed ( talk) 20:25, 14 May 2020 (UTC)
@ TBR-qed: I can appreciate that you don't like my judgment of your draft as idiosyncratic, but after looking at it again that's still my verdict.
Above, your response described (if I understand you correctly) an analogous "reconstruction" and "reframing" that you attempted in another article. I agree that you have done some reconstructing and reframing of the problem of induction in your draft, but it seems narrowly done, which is what I mean by idiosyncratic. If you were aiming in your draft for a more comprehensive and neutral perspective, as you claim above, and not merely a change of perspective to your own point of view, then you haven't yet succeeded. Your draft reads like your own original argument, and not a very clear one.
The following quotation is an example of a more comprehensive and neutral perspective, from the lead to the article on the problem of induction at the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: "A number of philosophers have attempted solutions to the problem, but a significant number have embraced his conclusion that it is insoluble. There is also a wide spectrum of opinion on the significance of the problem. Some have argued that Hume's argument does not establish any far-reaching skeptical conclusion, either because it was never intended to, or because the argument is in some way misformulated. Yet many have regarded it as one of the most profound philosophical challenges imaginable..."
That your draft is original research is clear enough from the lack of citations, although one could also point to other indicators of original research. To be clear,
no original research means: don't make claims or arguments that are not attributable to a reliable source, and don't use statements from a source to reach a conclusion that is not in the source. You cite Sloman and Lagnado's article, of course, but I don't think Sloman and Lagnado's article is a good basis for radically reconstructing this article, as explained above. Sloman and Lagnado could be used for some details, but despite its title it is not appropriate as a model for massively reconstructing this article. When you look up Sloman and Lagnado in
Google Scholar and look at the list of publications that cite it, you see that almost none of them are about the problem of induction! Scholars who have found Sloman and Lagnado's article useful enough to cite are not generally writing about the problem of induction. There is an interesting exception: Jackson, Alexander (June 2019).
"How to solve Hume's problem of induction".
Episteme. 16 (2): 157–174.
doi:
10.1017/epi.2017.32. {{
cite journal}}
: Invalid |ref=harv
(
help) Jackson's citation of Sloman and Lagnado's article is a good example of the minor role Sloman and Lagnado would have in a philosophical discussion of the problem of induction, although Jackson's article is not a good model for reconstructing this article either, since Jackson was making an original argument and was not attempting to follow Wikipedia's
WP:NOR and
WP:NPOV policies.
Perhaps a better strategy for adding the information that you want to add to this article would be: Find a highly cited source that contains the arguments that you think are important and unrepresented in the article, and then accurately describe that source in a new subsection in Problem of induction § Notable interpretations. Or two subsections, if there are different arguments in two different sources. Biogeographist ( talk) 21:03, 15 May 2020 (UTC)
revision ready for further critique by September? In addition, you stopped any effort to have a minimal required shared understanding when you wrote
I can't follow you any farther into Popper's metaphysical third world.That's not the way it works in Wikipedia. There is no way editors can work together on an article without sharing a minimal understanding of the literature.
[you] can't follow [me] any farther into Popper's metaphysical third worldand then add that your
revision [will be] ready for further critique by September.
Lede doesn't need sources.More precisely, statements in the lead don't need sources when they summarize content that appears later in the article with citations, but the lead often includes other statements that are not repeated again in the article: these statements would need sources. Biogeographist ( talk) 22:07, 20 May 2020 (UTC)
DM found the entire article biased because it assumes that this reasoning method starts with observation: an empirical claim. This claim ignores Popper’s thesis that reasoning starts with a theoretical conjecture about an observed-&-known phenomenon.I did not mention this. What I mentioned on April 23rd is that the article misses a key ingredient in Popper's solution, namely, his view that the problems in explaining the growth of scientific knowledge are part of the problems in the theory of evolution in general. I also mentioned a bias in the article, but finally, after looking at it, it turned out to be only Broad quote and the captions for the pictures, two points that TBR-qed disagree with, which is fine. But he also does not intend to discuss these points or any other aspects of his understanding further. This, on the other hand, is problematic.
I don't understand "(ampliative) inductive rules." I think it involves your effort to distinguish between explaining processes and explaining rules, which are both distinct from observing processes,were you implicitly rejecting that there is a fundamental distinction between the so called "Induction Rules" in Sloman and Lagnado and what Hume calls arguments? This is very important, because this is definitively part of a minimal understanding that editors (except those that only look at grammar and things like that) must share before they can work on this article.
Yes, regarding TBR-qed's plan, I expected that you would say that he is free to do that. I do not disagree at all. In fact, I also had the same thought. However, I feel that I have to offer an alternative approach, which is to try to achieve a consensus on some minimal shared understanding.
Regarding evolutionary epistemology, Popper had this concept even before LSD was published. Here is a quote from Popper of a text originally written around 1952. This quote refers to LSD which was being translated at the time.
Sometimes I have also described it as the degree to which the theory in question ‘has been able to prove its fitness to survive by standing up to tests’. But as the context of such passages shows, I meant by this no more than a report about the past fitness of the theory to survive severe tests: like Darwin, I did not assume that something (whether an animal or a theory) that has shown its fitness to survive tests by surviving them has shown its fitness to survive all, or most, or any, future tests.
— Popper, Karl, Realism and the Aim of Science (p. 64).
But of course, the notion might have existed way before Popper. That's not important. What is important is who has seen the significance of this connection and used it. Popper understood that it was a fundamental ingredient in the solution to the problem of induction.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 10:40, 21 May 2020 (UTC)
If in order to know anything we must first know that our principles are eternal a priori truths, and our facts absolute and immutable, it is painfully clear that knowledge is impossible, because we have not even now such facts and principles. But then we do not need them. All the equipment that we need to start upon the discovery of truth is a willingness to experiment and a willingness to learn. Granting these (and they are by no means common qualities), our experience will supply us with abundance of material. Indeed the chief difficulty will be to select the best and most workable from among the multitudinous suggestions and analogies with which the world bombards an actively inquiring mind. Fortunately there is abundant time for such selection. It has been going on for ages, and even the lowest organisms are to some extent selective in their reactions to stimulation. The selectiveness of man is enormous and all-pervading, and he is also conscious of it. Is it a wonder, then, that the results of this whole history should have crystallized into 'axioms' which now seem self-evident, and into 'facts' which now seem solid? Yet the logical value of the products which our ordinary thinking now takes for granted is not original but acquired. Nor are they, even now, immutable, or worthy of superstitious reverence; but they are secured against frivolous attacks.
{{
cite journal}}
: Invalid |ref=harv
(
help) This article does not propose anything like an evolutionary epistemology (it just happens to mention Darwin) but the similarity to Popper in some other aspects is striking. In fact, looking at the list of publications that have cited Ritchie's paper (not many), one sees that Lakatos cited Ritchie and even combined Ritchie's paper and Popper's LSD into one term: "the Ritchie-Popper argument"! Very interesting—I did not know this.
Biogeographist (
talk)
14:13, 21 May 2020 (UTC)
The revert of TBR-qed major edits should not be interpreted to mean that the article cannot be improved, of course. In my view, the article mostly contain excellent well sourced content. Something bothers me a little though. It seems to fail to distinguish between different descriptions of induction, which may or may not be equivalent and thus should not be considered a priori as one and the same concept of induction in Wikipedia. The challenge here is that not only different descriptions of induction seems to exist in the literature, but also different ways to distinguish between different descriptions seem to exist. It becomes easily a mess if one wants to consider all of this. On the bright side, I believe there is a classical notion of induction and it is not the notion of induction in Sloman & Lagnado, for example. I am not sure how we should manage this situation.
However, at the least, we should make sure that the article does not mess up different notions as if they were the same. I believe the article suffers from this kind of problems at few occasions. My main criteria is that the traditional notion of induction, even the probabilistic version, has clearly been rejected in philosophy, starting from ancient Greek and Indian philosophy and more recently with Hume. There has been many attempts to find a valid classical notion of induction, but no success. My favorite example is the entire work of Lakatos. He criticized Popper because he did not propose an inductive process and took for himself the task of finding inductive rules, but at the end he only obtained descriptive rules. He could not find rules that could be used by scientists and he acknowledged that. He argued that it was good enough, but many others philosophers noticed that it was not the original goal. For example, Feyerabend wrote in "Against Method" that Lakatos' methodology of scientific research programmes is epistemological anarchism in disguise and Musgrave made a similar comment. Anyway, if the article speaks of induction as inference rules that are used in practice and differ from deduction by the fact that they are uncertain or probabilistic, then a big red signal should be raised, because most likely if we look carefully at the source, we will see that it's not the classical notion of induction. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 03:23, 16 November 2020 (UTC)
I am not sure this big edit is an improvement. The problem of induction is one of the most challenging, if not the most challenging, subject in the philosophy of science and I think, we need the contribution of other editors here. It's going to be a challenge, if we want to make major modifications to this article. I intend to revert the last edits of TBR-qed. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 15:26, 15 November 2020 (UTC)
The first sentence in the lead is
The problem of induction is that this method of human reasoning, unlike its mate deduction, mysteriously and paradoxically creates illusions of knowledge of universal patterns out of fragments of experience.
It assumes from the start that there is an actual method of reasoning called induction and do not attribute this view to any philosopher. It is as if the encyclopedia states this as a fact. All recent edits of TBR-qed are based on this bias toward one point of view. Given that this is at the center of most debates on induction, this is not acceptable in Wikipedia. Dominic Mayers ( talk) 18:59, 15 November 2020 (UTC)
Dom’s and Bio’s reasons for reverting me are so flimsy that I cannot take them seriously.
Dom starts by asserting—without authoritative support—that the problem of induction is so large in the philosophy of science, that a single editor or a pair of psychologists can’t revise it. There must be a multitude of editors who presumably will agree on what the problem is. This is precisely why the existing article is obsolete. It is futile to keep repeating old inconclusive arguments
He goes on to deny the problem exists, asserting that my post is biased because I assume “that there is an actual method of reasoning called induction …” Ignoring centuries of philosophical debate, and the 9 scholars I discuss in the body of my post (which he has not seen), he seems to endorse Popper’s denial that inductive reasoning exists in the formal logical sense of deductive rules. I do NOT assume the existence of that which I analyze under the label of “problem of induction” Having judged the problem and the method to be illusions, he denies I have a right to examine ancient and modern debates about it. He is the biased one.
He condemns my reliance on two psychologists whose recent publication studies philosophers AND psychologists who practice and debate what they call induction.
Bio condemns my effort to reframe traditional debates in the terms currently employed by practitioners, labeling my definitions “unencyclopedic in tone.”
I will not permit these two to forbid my use of the lede to introduce the vocabulary currently used by practitioners of induction, nor to dictate which professional publications may be permitted to argue the illusions and facts of that kind of rationality.
I am going to restore and complete my revision, bringing the problem of induction into the 21st century. This not an uncyclopedic or biased enterprise. TBR-qed ( talk) 13:41, 16 November 2020 (UTC)
What do you think of the article on the problem of induction at the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy? I skimmed through it, and I think it would be a better model of what Wikipedia's article should be aiming for, although its style is not Wikipedia's style. I would like to hear TBR-qed's opinion of the SEP article (setting aside its interpretation of Popper, to which Dominic objected), and an explanation of how and why TBR-qed's approach would be different from the SEP article's general approach. Biogeographist ( talk) 23:31, 16 November 2020 (UTC)
Your replies have finally penetrated my ignorance of how I can use a sandbox to present a proposal rather than making a drastic revision. I shall do that. I shall review and comment on the SEP article. But first, let me make 2 assertions to show where I am coming from--which is doubtless as controversial as my content:
An encyclopedia is a living tool, not a crypt or mausoleum. Would it not be more useful to users of Wikipedia to learn how Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow perpetuates the problem of induction than to learn what Sextus Empiricus wrote about it? TBR-qed ( talk) 17:31, 17 November 2020 (UTC)
how Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow perpetuates the problem of induction. But keep in mind that such an account would need to be based on at least one secondary source to be included in Wikipedia. We can't make original arguments about primary sources ( WP:NOR), so if you're making original arguments about Kahneman and the other authors that you listed above at § Induction & deduction, Wikipedia is not the place to do it. WP:PSTS says: "Secondary or tertiary sources are needed to establish the topic's notability and to avoid novel interpretations of primary sources. All analyses and interpretive or synthetic claims about primary sources must be referenced to a secondary or tertiary source, and must not be an original analysis of the primary-source material by Wikipedia editors." Biogeographist ( talk) 18:39, 17 November 2020 (UTC)
Your points are well taken. I am making progress on my sandbox proposal which you can judge. I report my reaction to the SEP article.
RANSON ON SEP “The Problem of Induction.” First published Wed Mar 21, 2018 by Leah Henderson
Henderson’s discussion of Baysian probability (section 3.2.2) accurately states the problem of induction: “We want to infer not what the sample will be like, with a known hypothesis, rather we want to infer a hypothesis about the general situation or population, based on the observation of a limited sample.” I find this completely compatible with my opening statement: “The problem of induction is that this method of human reasoning, unlike its mate deduction, mysteriously and paradoxically creates illusions of knowledge of universal patterns [hypotheses] out of fragments of experience [limited but representative sample].”
Unfortunately, her opening paragraph does not state the problem. Instead it gives an example of the method of enumerative induction as the prototype of inductive inference. She follows with a common sense inference “from the observed to the unobserved, or to general laws… as ‘inductive inferences,’” further enforcing the belief that induction means counting observed samples as evidence of unobserved kinds, denying that other methods can legitimately be called inductive. This denial ignores the existence of a well-established scientific alternative—a terrible oversight which Sloman and Lagnado and I correct.
I present Duhem and Dewey as practitioners of scientific induction, which neither Henderson nor S&L do. The closest she comes is to identify Reichenbach’s “pragmatic vindication” of induction. Why not Dewey’s? To exclude Dewey’s Logic: the Theory of Inquiry is rank bias.
Henderson does not name Hume’s method enumerative induction. She attaches names recognizable only by philosophers to empirical-evidence-joined-to-conceptual-generalizations. “For convenience, we will refer to this claim of similarity or resemblance between observed and unobserved regularities as the ‘Uniformity Principle (UP)’. Sometimes it is also called the ‘Resemblance Principle’, or the ‘Principle of Uniformity of Nature’. S&L use the name common among psychologists: “similarity-based induction.” Both accept without debate that observable similarity is an empirical universal attribute of every sample of inductive inference.
Henderson and S&L accept without question Goodman’s premise that the attribute green is attached to emeralds by enumeration, and might change at any time. All ignore its scientific definition which cannot change metaphysically. None of its attributes is observable. All are predictable once kind is defined scientifically. “Emeralds are formed when chromium, vanadium, and iron are present in the mineral beryl. The varying presence of these three elements gives emerald its range of color.” Seeing Green: All About Emeralds - GIA www.gia.edu › seeing-green
Henderson’s “meta-induction (section 7.3) seems to encompass S&L’s “categorical induction,” but she is unaware of the psychologists’ idea, much less its similarity to the philosopher’s idea.
My conclusion is that Henderson’s piece does more to conceal the nature of the problem of induction than to clarify and resolve it. — Preceding unsigned comment added by TBR-qed ( talk • contribs) 18:32, 19 November 2020 (UTC)
To exclude Dewey's Logic: the Theory of Inquiry is rank bias.I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "rank bias", so I may just be restating your point, but I think Henderson's inclusion of Reichenbach and not Dewey reflects the fact that Reichenbach's book has been much more commonly discussed in scholarly accounts of the problem of induction than Dewey's book has been. This can be seen quickly, for example, on Google Scholar by searching for "problem of induction" in publications that cite Reichenbach's and Dewey's books; Reichenbach comes out far ahead of Dewey. Nevertheless, I will be interested to see what you say about Dewey and which secondary sources about him and the problem of induction you are summarizing. Biogeographist ( talk) 19:43, 19 November 2020 (UTC)
I am trying to relate secondary sources to primary sources to be more encyclopaedic. I hope you will help me correct my lapses rather than just counting them. TBR-qed ( talk) 17:15, 22 November 2020 (UTC)
@ TBR-qed: I just looked at this latest revision of your proposed changes to Problem of induction. I understand that it may not be finished yet, but overall there is a major problem with your method: You are just commenting on primary sources. This is the same method that you used to rewrite two previous articles, Instrumental and value rationality and Instrumental and value-rational action, and your rewritten versions of those articles have been appropriately tagged by Omnipaedista with the {{ Essay-like}} cleanup tag. Your method is not an appropriate method for Wikipedia, as it produces an original argumentative essay that violates the WP:NOR policy. If you want to produce content that is appropriate for inclusion in this article, you will need to adopt a different method: Instead of commenting on quotations from primary sources, find secondary sources about how those primary sources relate to the problem of induction, and then summarize the secondary sources. One can cite primary sources, but the content should be based mostly on secondary sources and should not make original arguments. This has already been explained above, and has probably been explained to you on other talk pages as well. Thanks, Biogeographist ( talk) 15:02, 21 November 2020 (UTC)
Some issues that jump out to me are editorializing in the lede "mysteriously and paradoxically creates illusions of knowledge" and it barely says anything about the early history of the problem of induction. For those interested in ancient philosophy (which, it is important to note, is not dead philosophy. There are modern Stoics, Epicureans, and Pyrrhonists, for example) it is an important subject. Teishin ( talk) 22:11, 21 November 2020 (UTC)
First, I consider the following sentence in the article:
The problem calls into question the traditional inductivist account of all empirical claims made in everyday life or through the scientific method, and, for that reason, C. D. Broad once said that "induction is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy".
This sentence plays a useful purpose, because indeed there is notable belief, justified or not, that knowledge grows through some kind of reasoning, thus inductive reasoning, because deductive reasoning is not ampliative. The first problem is that I don't feel it's written in a neutral manner. It's not attributed in a clear way. It's not attributed to Broad (except the quote of course), because on the contrary Broad is presented as an innocent witness of the fact. It is not clearly attributed to the traditional inductivist view, because the term "account" again suggests that it is an observed fact. The second problem is that it refers to all empirical claims, but there is no problem with claims of simple observations. It's a nice sentence, but it needs some work. To address the first problem I suggest the following
The traditional inductivist view is that all empirical claims, either made in everyday life or through the scientific method, can be justified through some form of reasoning. The problem is that many philosophers tried to find such a justification but their proposals were not accepted by others. Identifying the inductivist view as the scientific view, C. D. Broad once said that "induction is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy".
The middle sentence is not attributed, but that's ok, because it is well known. To address the second problem, "empirical claims" must be replaced by something else. I propose "claimed empirical laws". So, it becomes
The traditional inductivist view is that all claimed empirical laws, either in everyday life or through the scientific method, can be justified through some form of reasoning. The problem is that many philosophers tried to find such a justification but their proposals were not accepted by others. Identifying the inductivist view as the scientific view, C. D. Broad once said that "induction is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy".
Second, let see how this fits with the next sentence
In contrast, Karl Popper's critical rationalism claimed that induction is never used in science and proposed instead that science is based on the procedure of conjecturing hypotheses, deductively calculating consequences, and then empirically attempting to falsify them.
It could be simply:
In contrast, Karl Popper's critical rationalism claimed that inductive justifications are never used in science and proposed instead that science is based on the procedure of conjecturing hypotheses, deductively calculating consequences, and then empirically attempting to falsify them.
I addressed a problem of terminology here by replacing "induction" with "inductive justifications". Of course, Popper never claimed that the inductive relationships usually seen between laws and observations do not exist. If asked why do you accept that the sun raises on the east every day, he would have replied that he sees it every day, just like anyone else. Note that this is no justification at all for the inference of the law. If one is asked how can you infer B from A and one replies because I have A, one has provided no justification at all for the inference. In other words, he believed in the value of corroborations, just like every one else. The only thing he rejected is the existence of a rational justification for the laws.
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 17:25, 9 December 2020 (UTC)
I consider the following sentence:
The problem of induction is the philosophical question of whether inductive reasoning leads to knowledge understood in the classic philosophical sense, [1] highlighting the apparent lack of justification for:
The problem I see with this sentence is that it refers to inductive reasoning which can refer to inductive justifications or to what is now seen as inductive methods in social science and in artificial intelligence or even simply to any relationship between a law and observations that corroborate it. These concepts are totally different and operate at completely different levels. The problem of induction is about missing justifications. For example, this is clearly explained in SEP. The first paragraph in SEP describes the well known relationship between laws and observations: if a kind of bread has nourished thus far, we are not surprised to see the (false) law that it will keep be nourishing. However, when it comes to the problem of induction, the expressions used in SEP are "on what grounds" and "arguments that do not serve". So, clearly, the problem is the missing justifications. Therefore, I suggest that we do not refer to the nowadays vague term "inductive reasoning" and focus on missing justifications. I propose
The problem of induction is the philosophical question of what are the justifications, if any, for any growth of knowledge understood in the classic philosophical sense that goes beyond a mere collection of observations [1], highlighting the apparent lack of justification in particular for:
Dominic Mayers ( talk) 18:26, 9 December 2020 (UTC)
References
I have submitted my sandbox proposal. I feel it demonstrates that the existing article is obsolete and that contaminated inductive reasoning exists at pandemic levels. Critique invited. TBR-qed ( talk) 17:02, 5 December 2020 (UTC)
it's unlikely that the other editors here would accept a whole replacement of this article by one written entirely by TBR-qed. The better approach is to consider whether any parts of it are suitable for merging into the existing article. Biogeographist ( talk) 23:09, 5 December 2020 (UTC)
The [criterion of adequacy] stated here may strike some readers as surprisingly strong. Given a specific logic of evidential support, how might it be shown to satisfy such a condition? Section 4 will show precisely how this condition is satisfied by the logic of evidential support articulated in Sections 1 through 3 of this article.