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The definitions in this article do not adequately explain the way public weather services, such as weather.com, report POP. They typically assign a POP to a date, and also assign a POP to each individual hour. You might think the former uses a 24 hour period and the latter a 1 hour period, but the values reported make that implausible. Often one or more hourly POPs are the same as the 24 hour POP. This would imply unnatural correlations among the hours. 184.96.5.102 ( talk) 14:22, 14 August 2011 (UTC)
Looking at the current text, it says:
Perhaps what it should say is this (chnages in bold):
But it would be good if someone could confirm that. Also, since the article says that there are alternative competing semantics in use, the article should be clear about all of them. -- pde ( talk) 18:02, 10 September 2011 (UTC)
Ok so, THE PERCENT OF PRECIPITATION IS THE CHANCE OF IT RAINING, HAILING, SLEETING OR SNOWING! so, a 95% chance of precipitation means you should prbably bring along an umbrella. Edona23456 ( talk) 01:46, 2 March 2017 (UTC)
The following relateds to a comment placed in thre article by an IP editor. Melcombe ( talk) 21:15, 11 May 2012 (UTC)
After ...
The mathematical definition of Probability of Precipitation is defined as:
...the editor put the following comment...
(Should this not include some consideration of the time period? I often see a daily forecast indicating e.g. 30% chance of precipitation, yet when I look at the hour by hour forecast they all say 30% too. If the chance of rain in each hour of the day is 30% then the chance of no rain over the 24 period is 0.7^24, that's 0.0002. i.e. it's almost certain to rain. This would not appear to be the message that the forecaster is trying to get across).
the link for http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/definitions/definePoP12.html is dead. I found a new link to the same content at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/?n=probability_of_precipitation — Preceding unsigned comment added by 129.33.49.252 ( talk) 19:34, 3 July 2012 (UTC)
I really miss some indication of how heavy rainfall might be - a drizzle or should I start building an ark? 24.5.61.77 ( talk) 02:01, 6 March 2016 (UTC)
Meteorologist/Weatherman: "The chance of Precipitation is 95% today in Phoenix, AZ so bring an Umbrella and Good Luck!"
General public: "Pfft, everyone knows that Idiot!" (Meanwhile you are on wikipedia for a reason.)
Ok so all of these people are acting so smart and adding so much more to this than there actually is, let me put this simple and to the point for you. The chance of Precipitation is the Chance of Rain, Snow, Hail or sleet.. Nothing to do with Location or the fact that you are on one side of the city, and they are on the other so they wont be rained on. Now that that is out of the way, Is the Weatherman so smart now? - Edona Edona23456 ( talk) 01:55, 2 March 2017 (UTC)
I have removed a part of the article that claimed that the hourly presence of thunderstorms is independent, along with reasoning that relied on this. The claim is clearly false and misleading. (For example, the presence of clouds is highly correlated from one hour to the second, due to how clouds move geospatially. Clouds are a precondition to thunderstorms.) -- 160.39.13.0 ( talk) 22:56, 28 February 2021 (UTC)
I’m here because I’m reading a PoP of 50% for snow in a situation where snow or not snow really matters. Think “Wikipedia will clear up my confusion”. nope. Could someone please provide a plain English explanation for us idiots? Jennpublic ( talk) 04:32, 31 December 2023 (UTC)
![]() | This article is rated C-class on Wikipedia's
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The definitions in this article do not adequately explain the way public weather services, such as weather.com, report POP. They typically assign a POP to a date, and also assign a POP to each individual hour. You might think the former uses a 24 hour period and the latter a 1 hour period, but the values reported make that implausible. Often one or more hourly POPs are the same as the 24 hour POP. This would imply unnatural correlations among the hours. 184.96.5.102 ( talk) 14:22, 14 August 2011 (UTC)
Looking at the current text, it says:
Perhaps what it should say is this (chnages in bold):
But it would be good if someone could confirm that. Also, since the article says that there are alternative competing semantics in use, the article should be clear about all of them. -- pde ( talk) 18:02, 10 September 2011 (UTC)
Ok so, THE PERCENT OF PRECIPITATION IS THE CHANCE OF IT RAINING, HAILING, SLEETING OR SNOWING! so, a 95% chance of precipitation means you should prbably bring along an umbrella. Edona23456 ( talk) 01:46, 2 March 2017 (UTC)
The following relateds to a comment placed in thre article by an IP editor. Melcombe ( talk) 21:15, 11 May 2012 (UTC)
After ...
The mathematical definition of Probability of Precipitation is defined as:
...the editor put the following comment...
(Should this not include some consideration of the time period? I often see a daily forecast indicating e.g. 30% chance of precipitation, yet when I look at the hour by hour forecast they all say 30% too. If the chance of rain in each hour of the day is 30% then the chance of no rain over the 24 period is 0.7^24, that's 0.0002. i.e. it's almost certain to rain. This would not appear to be the message that the forecaster is trying to get across).
the link for http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/definitions/definePoP12.html is dead. I found a new link to the same content at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/?n=probability_of_precipitation — Preceding unsigned comment added by 129.33.49.252 ( talk) 19:34, 3 July 2012 (UTC)
I really miss some indication of how heavy rainfall might be - a drizzle or should I start building an ark? 24.5.61.77 ( talk) 02:01, 6 March 2016 (UTC)
Meteorologist/Weatherman: "The chance of Precipitation is 95% today in Phoenix, AZ so bring an Umbrella and Good Luck!"
General public: "Pfft, everyone knows that Idiot!" (Meanwhile you are on wikipedia for a reason.)
Ok so all of these people are acting so smart and adding so much more to this than there actually is, let me put this simple and to the point for you. The chance of Precipitation is the Chance of Rain, Snow, Hail or sleet.. Nothing to do with Location or the fact that you are on one side of the city, and they are on the other so they wont be rained on. Now that that is out of the way, Is the Weatherman so smart now? - Edona Edona23456 ( talk) 01:55, 2 March 2017 (UTC)
I have removed a part of the article that claimed that the hourly presence of thunderstorms is independent, along with reasoning that relied on this. The claim is clearly false and misleading. (For example, the presence of clouds is highly correlated from one hour to the second, due to how clouds move geospatially. Clouds are a precondition to thunderstorms.) -- 160.39.13.0 ( talk) 22:56, 28 February 2021 (UTC)
I’m here because I’m reading a PoP of 50% for snow in a situation where snow or not snow really matters. Think “Wikipedia will clear up my confusion”. nope. Could someone please provide a plain English explanation for us idiots? Jennpublic ( talk) 04:32, 31 December 2023 (UTC)