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This probably should not be included, I actually run a website with seat predictions and using the H&K predictor provides very unreliable results due to it simply assuming that all factors are equal to the last election. For instance, the predictions posted on this page always shown an independent (Chuck Cadman) winning which is obviously impossible as Mr. Cadman has passed away. It also shows one instance in which there are two independents: Mr. Cadman and one of either Jim Pankiw or Grant Devine both of which ran as independents in 2004 but are not running this time. - Jord 22:19, 12 December 2005 (UTC)
Hi! Would there be any value in having a single unified graph depicting poll trends? While general trends can be surmised from the many current graphs and polls/firms, a single one would allow for a ready comparison throughout (and I don't think an erroneous one, given the multiple polls/firms). In case of multiple polls on any given day, I'd use the poll figures with the largest sample size. Thoughts? E Pluribus Anthony 10:20, 13 December 2005 (UTC)
There is some debate as to whether or not seat projections should be included on this page. Currently, a Wikipedian plugs the numbers from a given poll into the Hill & Knowlton election predictor which simply applies the national margin of change in the given poll to each riding. For example: the Liberals received 36.7% of the vote in 2004, if a poll shows them at 38% then it will increase every Liberal candidate's share of the vote by 1.3%.
The fundamental flaws with such a model are that this does not account for the many ridings in which there was a predominant issue in the last campaign that does not exist in this one (or vice versa) or the presence of a strong candidate in the last campaign that does not exist in this one (or vice versa).
An additional flaw is that, beyond the 4 main parties, all other votes are bunched together as "Other". If the Green Party were to get a surge in the polls, the results might show a bunch of "Others" getting elected but, in fact, what may be projected, even on this flawed system, is that the combined vote of the Greens and other minor parties and independents in a riding was greater than another party but no one of those other parties in fact won.
Finally, there is a serious problem in its projection of three particular races: Surrey North, Souris—Moose Mountain and Saskatoon—Humboldt -- all had high profile independents, none of which are reoffering. It is not uncommon for a projection with a high Green vote to show these independents winning because their vote totals + those of other parties are all counted as "Other".
Several websites, particularly democraticSPACE.com and jord.ca, do similar projections to plugging the data into the H&K projector but do the swings on a regional basis and take into account the different scenarios of the individual races.
The above seat projections are both flawed in different ways. Raw data from the Hill & Knowlton projector ignores regional and local factors. The two websites are prone to human error. Neither of them are scientific. Nonetheless, some Wikipedians argue that the projections should be included because popular vote in a poll is not a good indicator of what the result will be, especially in a close race. For instance, in the 1979 election Joe Clark won, and nearly got a majority government, despite losing the popular vote by over 4%.
The object of this straw poll is to try to ascertain where the consensus leans in terms of what should be included.
Please list your first then second choice in the table.
User | 1st | 2nd |
---|---|---|
Jord | C | B |
arctic gnome | B | A |
E Pluribus Anthony | B * | C |
tompw | B * | A |
nfitz | C | B * |
|
I just deleted the December 9, Strategic Counsel predictions. There was no December 9 result! Also, I've fixed some of the numbers in the polling table for other Strategic Counsel results, so if people have used the results in the table for the seat predicitons, they will have to fix them! Not sure where people are getting these bad Strategic Counsel results from ... but I wish people would put in links when they add them ... all the results are on the Strategic Counsel website. Nfitz 18:10, 14 December 2005 (UTC)
I changed the January 1st Strategic Counsel results to December 31st ... as there were no polls on January 1st. But there's still an Ipsos-Reid result dated December 31st - however there is no December 31st poll reported in the table above! Not sure if this is legit or not ... Nfitz 00:23, 5 January 2006 (UTC)
I changed the intro to the topic to reflect that the Liberal Party of Canada and the Conservative Party of Canada are in a dead heat in the Opinion polling. SFrank85 02:13, 3 January 2006 (UTC)
I just updated the intro to reflect the fact the the conservative party now appears to have the lead
I edited slighly. The Conservatives appear to have a lead, but not a substantial lead. They are still statistically tied accoring to some polling! Though I think it's fair to say they they are in the lead. Nfitz 20:28, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
I removed the charts on the left as they havn't been updated since the start of the election. If someone would care to update them and put them back that would be cool.
Do we really need this - if someone wants to know, they can always check the history. And personally, I've been forgetting to update this for weeks. Though I did movfe it to the Polls section, so it's actually there to update! Nfitz 20:31, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
I removed this, as no one commented, and it is normally out of date! Nfitz 13:56, 17 January 2006 (UTC)
Somebody should switch the Cons and Lib columns, now that Cons is leading. That order would amke more sense.-- Sonjaaa 04:26, 11 January 2006 (UTC)
Ekos is now doing one-day polling that they themselves note "we do not consider a single night of tracking to be scientifically credible. These nightly releases are intended only to respond to curiosity about day-to-day movements." I'm pondering if we want to add these or not ... Nfitz 15:16, 11 January 2006 (UTC)
Should we be looking at removing the seat projections? I don't know why all the ones we are showing come from a single generator ... shouldn't we be just putting those in reported in the media, rather than generating our own Nfitz 19:44, 13 January 2006 (UTC)
I removed them and replaced them with all of the final projections I could find on the web (and all of those which Andrew Coyne could find as well) and have archived what was there at Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006/Old projections in case someone wants to un do it. - Jord 17:13, 25 January 2006 (UTC)
The Green party logo looks kind of funny. Why is it grey and not yellow? -- JGGardiner 02:09, 12 January 2006 (UTC)
Will this article still be considered relevant enough to be on Wikipedia after the election? I'm not saying it should be done either way, I just don't commonly see articles with such a specific nature in wikipedia - usually it would be "opinion polling in canadian elections" - and it would include provincial, federal, and (or so its looking) senatorial elections.-- 68.73.55.59 19:01, 15 January 2006 (UTC)
I have created a combined polls graph if anyone is interested in posting it... not sure I can do it myself.
it's an excel plot with a coloured "band" showing encompassing the range of poll results.
Very good!
The Liberal and Conservative Values look like they could be reversed? Will try to find a the actual poll. -galneweinhaw
The current URL for this article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2006
is difficult to pass on. URLs with commas are not often made correctly clickable in forums, and in email. I am talking about those that make all URLs clickable.
Also, in forums the URL is too wide for many people using 15-inch notebook PCs. Especially those people who use a larger text size to read more easily. URLs without dashes will not wrap to 2 lines in many forums. So the URL stays on one line, and that forces the forum message text to extend too far to the right.
Most forums have one or more side columns. So that side column width eats into the forum message space width. People then have to scroll each and every line of message text in that forum thread. It effectively is a thread killer. The moderators often don't have the time to put the URL into an HTML link where one does not see the URL.
So many people stop passing on the URL for this article. -- Timeshifter 13:30, 16 January 2006 (UTC)
You can always use the alternate name: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Canadian_federal_election_opinion_polls it's still long, but is under 80 characters and has no commas, so should survive well as a link. Looks fine on my 15" laptop, only takes up one-third the page width in Outlook. Nfitz 20:58, 16 January 2006 (UTC)
I'm not quite sure how this works - but if the conservatives win 154 seats, then do they hold a minority or a majority? Mainly, I'm asking who's going to be the next speaker. If the conservatives win, do they nominate one of their own to be the speaker, or would it remain peter milliken's? If it remains peter milliken's, they have a majority, if not, then 154 gives them a minority.-- 68.73.53.71 16:42, 16 January 2006 (UTC)
Looking at polls from Dec 1 to Jan 16 (when SES and Strategic Counsel polled on the same date), SES showed an average of 3% lead for the Liberals, whereas Strategic Counsel shows an average lead of 0.3% for the Conservatives. What is the source of this systemic bias? -AaronKreider-
-The Strategic council is the biased poll - SES was almost exactly right last election. The Strategic council is headed up by Allen Gregg as its lead pollster. He was an insider in the Mulroney conservative government, and worked on Kim Campbells re election campaign. He was actually the one who came up with the lets attack Jean Chretiens face add. -- 24.222.65.32 23:36, 20 January 2006 (UTC)
I noticed that an IP has been rearranging polls of the same date to have a specific result on top. It's no a big deal, just annoying me, mostly cus it keeps screwing up the notes. -- galneweinhaw 06:23, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
It is getting annoying. Particularily as they are doing it without changing the notes. We've had edits in the last 24-hours by 209.217.84.140 and 206.191.56.151 - neither of who have any other Wikipedia edits except on this page! Both seem to traceback to magma.ca Nfitz 17:47, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
I added a note yesterday about the recent Strategic Counsel polls that both CTV and the Globe and Mail have been playing down in their news. Feel free to remove it whenever appropriate.-- galneweinhaw 20:42, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
I didn't get the feel that Globe and Mail were playing it down in the newspaper this morning. I didn't watch CTV; what were they saying? The numbers do seem quite different that what's coming out of SES and Ekos; mostly in Quebec and the West, by the looks of it. Nfitz 21:30, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
Hello fellow Wikipedians,
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Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006. Please take a moment to review
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Cheers.— cyberbot II Talk to my owner:Online 17:18, 29 February 2016 (UTC)
![]() | This article has not yet been rated on Wikipedia's
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This probably should not be included, I actually run a website with seat predictions and using the H&K predictor provides very unreliable results due to it simply assuming that all factors are equal to the last election. For instance, the predictions posted on this page always shown an independent (Chuck Cadman) winning which is obviously impossible as Mr. Cadman has passed away. It also shows one instance in which there are two independents: Mr. Cadman and one of either Jim Pankiw or Grant Devine both of which ran as independents in 2004 but are not running this time. - Jord 22:19, 12 December 2005 (UTC)
Hi! Would there be any value in having a single unified graph depicting poll trends? While general trends can be surmised from the many current graphs and polls/firms, a single one would allow for a ready comparison throughout (and I don't think an erroneous one, given the multiple polls/firms). In case of multiple polls on any given day, I'd use the poll figures with the largest sample size. Thoughts? E Pluribus Anthony 10:20, 13 December 2005 (UTC)
There is some debate as to whether or not seat projections should be included on this page. Currently, a Wikipedian plugs the numbers from a given poll into the Hill & Knowlton election predictor which simply applies the national margin of change in the given poll to each riding. For example: the Liberals received 36.7% of the vote in 2004, if a poll shows them at 38% then it will increase every Liberal candidate's share of the vote by 1.3%.
The fundamental flaws with such a model are that this does not account for the many ridings in which there was a predominant issue in the last campaign that does not exist in this one (or vice versa) or the presence of a strong candidate in the last campaign that does not exist in this one (or vice versa).
An additional flaw is that, beyond the 4 main parties, all other votes are bunched together as "Other". If the Green Party were to get a surge in the polls, the results might show a bunch of "Others" getting elected but, in fact, what may be projected, even on this flawed system, is that the combined vote of the Greens and other minor parties and independents in a riding was greater than another party but no one of those other parties in fact won.
Finally, there is a serious problem in its projection of three particular races: Surrey North, Souris—Moose Mountain and Saskatoon—Humboldt -- all had high profile independents, none of which are reoffering. It is not uncommon for a projection with a high Green vote to show these independents winning because their vote totals + those of other parties are all counted as "Other".
Several websites, particularly democraticSPACE.com and jord.ca, do similar projections to plugging the data into the H&K projector but do the swings on a regional basis and take into account the different scenarios of the individual races.
The above seat projections are both flawed in different ways. Raw data from the Hill & Knowlton projector ignores regional and local factors. The two websites are prone to human error. Neither of them are scientific. Nonetheless, some Wikipedians argue that the projections should be included because popular vote in a poll is not a good indicator of what the result will be, especially in a close race. For instance, in the 1979 election Joe Clark won, and nearly got a majority government, despite losing the popular vote by over 4%.
The object of this straw poll is to try to ascertain where the consensus leans in terms of what should be included.
Please list your first then second choice in the table.
User | 1st | 2nd |
---|---|---|
Jord | C | B |
arctic gnome | B | A |
E Pluribus Anthony | B * | C |
tompw | B * | A |
nfitz | C | B * |
|
I just deleted the December 9, Strategic Counsel predictions. There was no December 9 result! Also, I've fixed some of the numbers in the polling table for other Strategic Counsel results, so if people have used the results in the table for the seat predicitons, they will have to fix them! Not sure where people are getting these bad Strategic Counsel results from ... but I wish people would put in links when they add them ... all the results are on the Strategic Counsel website. Nfitz 18:10, 14 December 2005 (UTC)
I changed the January 1st Strategic Counsel results to December 31st ... as there were no polls on January 1st. But there's still an Ipsos-Reid result dated December 31st - however there is no December 31st poll reported in the table above! Not sure if this is legit or not ... Nfitz 00:23, 5 January 2006 (UTC)
I changed the intro to the topic to reflect that the Liberal Party of Canada and the Conservative Party of Canada are in a dead heat in the Opinion polling. SFrank85 02:13, 3 January 2006 (UTC)
I just updated the intro to reflect the fact the the conservative party now appears to have the lead
I edited slighly. The Conservatives appear to have a lead, but not a substantial lead. They are still statistically tied accoring to some polling! Though I think it's fair to say they they are in the lead. Nfitz 20:28, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
I removed the charts on the left as they havn't been updated since the start of the election. If someone would care to update them and put them back that would be cool.
Do we really need this - if someone wants to know, they can always check the history. And personally, I've been forgetting to update this for weeks. Though I did movfe it to the Polls section, so it's actually there to update! Nfitz 20:31, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
I removed this, as no one commented, and it is normally out of date! Nfitz 13:56, 17 January 2006 (UTC)
Somebody should switch the Cons and Lib columns, now that Cons is leading. That order would amke more sense.-- Sonjaaa 04:26, 11 January 2006 (UTC)
Ekos is now doing one-day polling that they themselves note "we do not consider a single night of tracking to be scientifically credible. These nightly releases are intended only to respond to curiosity about day-to-day movements." I'm pondering if we want to add these or not ... Nfitz 15:16, 11 January 2006 (UTC)
Should we be looking at removing the seat projections? I don't know why all the ones we are showing come from a single generator ... shouldn't we be just putting those in reported in the media, rather than generating our own Nfitz 19:44, 13 January 2006 (UTC)
I removed them and replaced them with all of the final projections I could find on the web (and all of those which Andrew Coyne could find as well) and have archived what was there at Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006/Old projections in case someone wants to un do it. - Jord 17:13, 25 January 2006 (UTC)
The Green party logo looks kind of funny. Why is it grey and not yellow? -- JGGardiner 02:09, 12 January 2006 (UTC)
Will this article still be considered relevant enough to be on Wikipedia after the election? I'm not saying it should be done either way, I just don't commonly see articles with such a specific nature in wikipedia - usually it would be "opinion polling in canadian elections" - and it would include provincial, federal, and (or so its looking) senatorial elections.-- 68.73.55.59 19:01, 15 January 2006 (UTC)
I have created a combined polls graph if anyone is interested in posting it... not sure I can do it myself.
it's an excel plot with a coloured "band" showing encompassing the range of poll results.
Very good!
The Liberal and Conservative Values look like they could be reversed? Will try to find a the actual poll. -galneweinhaw
The current URL for this article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2006
is difficult to pass on. URLs with commas are not often made correctly clickable in forums, and in email. I am talking about those that make all URLs clickable.
Also, in forums the URL is too wide for many people using 15-inch notebook PCs. Especially those people who use a larger text size to read more easily. URLs without dashes will not wrap to 2 lines in many forums. So the URL stays on one line, and that forces the forum message text to extend too far to the right.
Most forums have one or more side columns. So that side column width eats into the forum message space width. People then have to scroll each and every line of message text in that forum thread. It effectively is a thread killer. The moderators often don't have the time to put the URL into an HTML link where one does not see the URL.
So many people stop passing on the URL for this article. -- Timeshifter 13:30, 16 January 2006 (UTC)
You can always use the alternate name: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Canadian_federal_election_opinion_polls it's still long, but is under 80 characters and has no commas, so should survive well as a link. Looks fine on my 15" laptop, only takes up one-third the page width in Outlook. Nfitz 20:58, 16 January 2006 (UTC)
I'm not quite sure how this works - but if the conservatives win 154 seats, then do they hold a minority or a majority? Mainly, I'm asking who's going to be the next speaker. If the conservatives win, do they nominate one of their own to be the speaker, or would it remain peter milliken's? If it remains peter milliken's, they have a majority, if not, then 154 gives them a minority.-- 68.73.53.71 16:42, 16 January 2006 (UTC)
Looking at polls from Dec 1 to Jan 16 (when SES and Strategic Counsel polled on the same date), SES showed an average of 3% lead for the Liberals, whereas Strategic Counsel shows an average lead of 0.3% for the Conservatives. What is the source of this systemic bias? -AaronKreider-
-The Strategic council is the biased poll - SES was almost exactly right last election. The Strategic council is headed up by Allen Gregg as its lead pollster. He was an insider in the Mulroney conservative government, and worked on Kim Campbells re election campaign. He was actually the one who came up with the lets attack Jean Chretiens face add. -- 24.222.65.32 23:36, 20 January 2006 (UTC)
I noticed that an IP has been rearranging polls of the same date to have a specific result on top. It's no a big deal, just annoying me, mostly cus it keeps screwing up the notes. -- galneweinhaw 06:23, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
It is getting annoying. Particularily as they are doing it without changing the notes. We've had edits in the last 24-hours by 209.217.84.140 and 206.191.56.151 - neither of who have any other Wikipedia edits except on this page! Both seem to traceback to magma.ca Nfitz 17:47, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
I added a note yesterday about the recent Strategic Counsel polls that both CTV and the Globe and Mail have been playing down in their news. Feel free to remove it whenever appropriate.-- galneweinhaw 20:42, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
I didn't get the feel that Globe and Mail were playing it down in the newspaper this morning. I didn't watch CTV; what were they saying? The numbers do seem quite different that what's coming out of SES and Ekos; mostly in Quebec and the West, by the looks of it. Nfitz 21:30, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
Hello fellow Wikipedians,
I have just added archive links to one external link on
Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006. Please take a moment to review
my edit. If necessary, add {{
cbignore}}
after the link to keep me from modifying it. Alternatively, you can add {{
nobots|deny=InternetArchiveBot}}
to keep me off the page altogether. I made the following changes:
When you have finished reviewing my changes, please set the checked parameter below to true or failed to let others know (documentation at {{
Sourcecheck}}
).
This message was posted before February 2018.
After February 2018, "External links modified" talk page sections are no longer generated or monitored by InternetArchiveBot. No special action is required regarding these talk page notices, other than
regular verification using the archive tool instructions below. Editors
have permission to delete these "External links modified" talk page sections if they want to de-clutter talk pages, but see the
RfC before doing mass systematic removals. This message is updated dynamically through the template {{
source check}}
(last update: 5 June 2024).
Cheers.— cyberbot II Talk to my owner:Online 17:18, 29 February 2016 (UTC)