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Archive 10 | ← | Archive 14 | Archive 15 | Archive 16 | Archive 17 | Archive 18 | → | Archive 20 |
What are general feelings on links to advocacy organizations as references? My view is that links to groups that 'spin' the science to promote a particular viewpoint -- whether the Sierra Club on the one hand or the co2science.org on the other -- belong in a separate article on policy. At the very least, links to such organizations shouldn't be under the general heading 'Scientific', which to me implies some attempt at objectivity. Raymond Arritt 01:33, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Seeing as how it used to redirect here-- 172.162.149.247 15:23, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Could somebody more familiar with global carbon absorbtion please add that oceans actually absorb over 50% of the worlds carbon, a common misconception is that plants and trees absorb most of the world's carbon. This is important as the more carbon the oceans absorb, the more acidic they become (carbonic acid). Once ocean acidity reaches a certain level it will start to kill the ocean wildlife, starting with plankton, and as plankton is at the bottom of the food chain, this will decimate the entire chain. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 85.210.30.128 ( talk • contribs) 13:57, 2 August 2006
Ok, mild acid. Is not so much the "mild acid" part but the pH. The point is that no matter the acid, if the pH goes down too much so of the excessive H will begin reacting with vital minerals in sea water. As the presence of such minerals decline, the calcium that makes up the skeletons of some of this animals becomes a very attractive reacting partner for the excessive H ions.
Is acidification of the oceans a potential compounding effect? i.e. if plankton start to die due to acidification, will that release methane or cause the oceans to absorb less CO2 thereafter?
Anyone think Al Gore had edited some of this page? I am sure he has......he loves the subject.
So, since evolution is disputed in the US we should indeed give some room to creationist in wiki? It would lower our standards. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 ( talk • contribs)
Good idea Ed. Lets insist that "flat earthers" be allowed to dispute that the earth is round, and add POV warnings to all the astronomy articles on that basis... while were about it, lets re-write the NPOV policy to remove the undue weight clause... William M. Connolley 19:28, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
There has never been scientific concensus that the earth was round. Thats like saying that there was scientific concensus that hell and heaven exist... There was general belief in the flatness of the earth but it has nothing to do with science. It was general. Also, be careful when you talk about the "scientific" because science back in the day was hardly distinguishable from philosophy, mathematics, and even "religion" (yep, bad spirits are the cause of disease.) It is only in more recent times when specialization has led clear boundaries across fields. Talk about politics. Any one know what happened to the first guy that proved that the square root of two could not be rational...? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 ( talk • contribs)
Ok, so the environmentalist "INDUSTRY" or the OIL "community leaders!" ?? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 ( talk • contribs)
Ah, this discussion might just go to show us that perhaps what scientists say is influenced many times not by (just) why they think, but what is safe and/or beneficial to say? And if we want to talk about measurements, when were the pyramids built? Does anyone know that? And how did they build them to such precise dimensions, in a place that doesn't change, on exact compass lines? Some things we'll never know, yes. And indeed! That has nothing to do with Global Warming. Nor with Al Gore.
Gruß Gott!! --- πΔΩΦ 04:19, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
Stephan - (1)Eratosthenes did not prove that the earth was round, he merely used mathematics to estimate its shape and circumference; in other words, he created a model. Models are not proof. The roundness of the earth wasn't proven (by hard, empirical evidence) until September 6, 1522 when the surviving members of Ferdinand Magellan's expedition finally completed a circumnavigation of the globe. Similarly, GW models must be considered theoretical until future events prove or disprove them. (2) Wide-spread belief that the world was flat persisted well beyond Eratosthenes' time. On his first voyage, Christopher Columbus's crew nearly mutinied over fears that they would sail off the edge of the earth, nearly 1500 years after Eratosthenes. And a question for anyone with an answer - How did Al Gore wind up as the point-man for the crusade against GW? The guy has claimed that he invented the internet and that the movie "Love Story" was about him & Tipper (not to mention the fact that he married Tipper in the first place). Not exactly the paragon of credibility a movement usually looks for in a poster-boy. 130.36.62.140 16:59, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
From reading the article, and especially from reading the discussion page, I have to come to the conclusion that this page needs an unbiased expert to review it. The page appears to have a subtle bias towards those who claim global warming is either A. not caused by humans, B. a good thing, or C. yet to be proven. Anyone with a high school level of experience in the Bio lab can show that bruning fuels increases carbon dioxide levels, so why are even the basics such as this still the subject of debate in the discussion page? It's time the free time wiki-warriors got out of this fight and let some pro's revise it. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 68.49.13.119 ( talk • contribs) .
I must ask what course you teach, if any. I would never teach this controversy in a science course. Otherwise, I would have to teach that HIV does not cause AIDS, that the earth is not necessarily round, and the evolution may not explain species variety (rather, some designer...) There are opposing "scientists" to the scientific concensus in each example I just mentioned, but that does not mean that you have to teach their views becuase they are all economically motivated. (its funny that the ID movement originator is also one of the first to claim that HIV does not cause AIDS. I think he wants label the disease as a punishment for "Bad behavior."
(carriage return) The article accurately reflects the current state of the science. Why mislead K-12 students by giving excessive weight to hypotheses that are not widely accepted by scientists in relevant fields? There's already too much of that going on in the U.S. with respect to evolution and some other topics. Raymond Arritt 02:59, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
Generally speaking, this article is accurate in its overall description, although unfortunately I don't have time to verify all the details. LotR 18:25, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
AS for "anyone with a high school experience" — it isn't so clear cut as you probably know, rarely is there a linear correlation with anything. Elle vécut heureuse à jamais ( Be eudaimonic!) 14:16, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
I come off at times as argumentive (I am) and annoying (I am) and so on and so forth. This article is very good, very well written, very filled with citations supporting the claims. From my viewpoint (Which is: There's a lot of evidence of something but no proof of anything) is that the article is not biased. Nope.
What it is, however, is that it's very focused on some aspects of the debate and not upon others. In that respect, it becomes biased, in a way, by the focus of others who are writing it. That's to be expected. If the subject was one of "absolute" proof or fact, that's a different thing then an article on what causes time, what's the best economic or political system, how much cheese there is in Norway....
To my way of thinking, the reason there's so much contention on this entire subject is that there is no proof as one would normally expect it; what we'd expect from burning methane into a beaker filled with dynamite, vs how burning methane reacts in the atmosphere to cloud cover when the ocean is warmer during the day and the volcanos are errupting under intense blizzards in Spain while holding a giraffe, blah blah blah) Of couse, we all know no professional scientific organization would never be biased or go along with things other than science, things like politics or funding or a degree program or peer pressure or media coverage.
But as to here, "Water turns into steam at 212 F," turns into a discussion of if it's better to cite it as C rather than F, or adding in things like oh, what atmosphere is it, is it not pure or it is pure, is this calories, are we talking about joules, what's the ambiant temperature, what humdity level is it, what's the gravity.... So, let's turn a discussion on physics into one of chemistry into one of experiments in a lab versus in the real world, mix them all together, toss in 8 other subjects, and then not talk about the same thing. Ya think?
"1 calorie is needed per degree Kelvin of temperature change for 1 gram of liquid water." "Blue is better than indigo. Because 460 is a bigger positive number than 430 is."
Sln3412 05:40, 10 August 2006 (UTC) 299792458, dude.
After reading the section on computer models, I believe the "experts" need to consult a mathematician. Not the "experts" here, I mean the "experts" who made up these models. The data input into these models seems tenuous at best - the ability to predict next month's weather is daunting, these guys are positive about 100 years into the future - fat chance. Publish there data and methods - I understand some data is being held close to the chest ( this is the opposite of peer review I believe - tree ring data is what I am most familiar with ) )PS My father - in the early 1900s - remembers when kids flew kites in March. From his childhood to mine, we were still building snow forts in March. Today most Marchs are mud season. Which model predicts this? Do these models work backward in time - why was Greenland green in the 1400s? Global warming - as a trend for us to hyperventilate about - seems more and more like a hoax - in 1974 Time magazine was pushing global cooling ( same "experts" I suspect.) PSPS No mathematical model can possible be good enough - no computer is that fast. If I saw a model that was able to return a result in less than years of running I would check the programmers code. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 159.105.80.92 ( talk • contribs) 15:29, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
This page doesn't have a truly neutral point of view. It should use several different pieces of data from independent sources, not just from the same, bogus "hockey stick". -- ChevyFanatic 16:19, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
The only question we need to discuss is:
Contributors in good faith can disagree on how to implement NPOV, but I'd like to see some agreement from long-timers on the fact that the article should be neutral on all controversial matters. -- Uncle Ed 20:32, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
Wow...I see 'ol Willy and a couple others are still trying to manage this little page, lol. I see that everyone who has tried to make any changes that would (heaven forbid) not strengthen the "ANTHRO" side of GW is STILL being shut out, reverted etc. All I can say is...this page doesn't mean anything really...and is why I stopped trying to fight you & "them"...It doesn't sway anyone's or the general public's opinion, change government policy or any of that. It's just a personal hobby for some extremists. Hope your still enjoying it and how's the weather in antartica :) —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 158.147.53.196 ( talk • contribs) .
cut subsection
The potential effects of CO2 on climate become more significant as we look into the future. Estimated present day reserves of fossil fuels (mainly coal) should last for another few hundred years and will add far more CO2 to the atmosphere than has accumulated so far. Unless human technology or extreme conservation efforts reduces this, atmospher CO2 levels will increase within two centuries to levels at least two and possibly four or five times higher than those that existed before humans. Levels this high are comparable to those last seen tens of millions of years ago in warmer greenhouse worlds. This warming will cause environmental changes. As regional patterns of temperature and precipitation change, impacts on human populations will vary by season. Atmospher CO2 levels will remain high for 1000 of years or more, until the ocean absorbs the excess CO2.
I cut the preceding subsection, as it lacks sources and reads more like an argument for reducing CO2 emissions. Does it even belong here, or should it go to Kyoto Protocol or Emissions trading?
Anyway, we need more info about the relationship of air temperature and CO2 levels in the historical temperature record. Last month, I saw a graph illustrating the point the CO2 increases are caused by temperature increases. At least temp went up first, then CO2 went up; same for down. -- Uncle Ed 17:24, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
The same contributor restored the above section and followed it with this:
I agree that with the above statements that to the extent this information is correct and useful, it needs to be better referenced and presented. Dragons flight 20:24, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
Someone made a change that just made a particular sentence redundant. The changer changed "predict" to estimate, which I thought was fine, but then said that the models estimates assume that we are not going to curb emissions. The next sentence says that estimates are difficult because we do not know future emissions and climate variability. Thus, I too away the part that says "assumes that we will not curb emissions" since this is stated better in the next sentence... Sorry if I am redundant, I am new at this...
Brusegadi
04:40, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
I see what you mean, but I feel it is somehow redundant. Perhaps with better phrasing the assumption of the panel can be explecitly stated. I'll see if I come up with something. Brusegadi 21:51, 12 August 2006 (UTC)
Half the Norwegian Wikipedia article on global warming is a list of misconceptions about global warming, with discussion/refutations. The choice of misconceptions seems biased, but mentioning in the article that there are numerous common misconceptions, and listing and discussing them, seems like a good idea. As it is now, several issues that preoccupy many people are represented only on this discussion page instead of in an article. I suggest someone makes a separate article called "Common misconceptions about global warming" that lists and discusses claims that are unscientific, very improbable or poorly founded in science. It is rather obvious that misconceptions are abundant amongst laymen - and I guess laymen are the main target group for the Global warming article. Notice that pro-science advocates seem to forget that a huge number of people seem to hold an unrealistic and often scientifically unfounded sense of impending apocalypse, mainly due to sensationalist tabloid newspapers. This should be addressed, as should a lot of the refuted claims on this discussion page. On the other hand, a list of misconceptions - this is a too strong concept, perhaps? - may end up too black-and-white, showing a disregard for the subtleties that the article in its present form has. I'd welcome viewpoints on this. Narssarssuaq 12:04, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
From what I understand, 'misconceptions' refer to what some British have been calling "climate porn." This 'misconceptions' were not brought about by scientists but by media and politicians. Thus, it might make sense to deal with them in the page where we deal with the media and politics of global warming and not in the page where we deal with the science of global warming. Making a separate page may be good, but I feel that it would also be ok to treat them in a more politically leaning article. I feel that as long as we dont put it here, in the science part, it should be fine. Brusegadi 02:37, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
That sounds interesting, all of it. I don't know myself if any of this is anywhere near apolitical on its basic level. It's very difficult to take any large organization or group or subject and see exactly what is social, what is political, what is economic, what is professional, and what is something else (or a mix). So perhaps trying to make this subject anything else than what it is, is impossible. It looks fairly difficult already just in the current format. Sln3412 03:49, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
"The Wegman Report on Statistical Errors of Global Warming Studies" http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf
Should this be under "other" and not under scientific? Its energy commerce and it seems to be purely statistical... Just wondering. Brusegadi 19:49, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
Ok
Brusegadi
20:12, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
Statistics is a mathematics tool used by scientists, politicians and others. In this case it seems quite political - the use of statistics does not qualify it as science. Vsmith 01:50, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
Hello again, sorry for saying "purely statistical." Since stats have so many faces... I feel that the bottom line is that, becuase the source is highly political in nature, it should be placed under other. My experience with stats tell me that if you are not very familiar with the data you are working with, you may just mess something up. Perhaps one of the assumptions that is "obviously" met by the data turns out not to be met. My view may be discredited, since Mann has admitted some of the errors that were criticized. Yet, when reading it, I feel that I am getting only one side of the story. Skyemoor points to many examples of text that would never be in a real science source. So, I, again, suggest to try to keep it out. Brusegadi 02:58, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
I disagree here, there are assumptions that are VITAL to selecting one statistical procedure against another. And knowledge of the data is essential to knowing if such assumptions are met. What should be avoided is a political interest in a certain result. What can be damaging to a statistician is having a preconceived agenda. Knowledge of the data is rarely detrimental. And that is why the report is not scientific, it belongs under 'other' only because we do not have a 'political' section for external links. Bottomline is that the report was writeen by a statistician and not by a climate scientist. Brusegadi 02:04, 27 August 2006 (UTC)
How is an external link decided? If there is a site that is updated many times a day with global warming news is that a good external link to have? It provides something extra on top of what Wikipedia offers. Some of today's news, after it has been verified and quantified, will make it here as substantiated information. So a good external link site would offer news that has not yet been covered here? Yes or no? Webchat 00:24, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
This material would have a good home in the Global warming controversy article but not here. The main article already is long and is in danger of becoming unwieldy. The main article needs to stick to the science. Raymond Arritt 16:03, 22 August 2006 (UTC)
Just to be sure, if I want to edit the Spanish version of this article, is it ok for the references to be in English or do they have to be in Spanish? In general, can an article written in X language have references in Y language? I am trying to avoid getting in trouble :) I have seen that being done but I am not sure if it is right. Thanks a lot guys and sorry for the diversion. Brusegadi 23:00, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
I think the Wegman Report should have an article of its own. -- Uncle Ed 17:11, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
ridiculous, a published scientific paper is un-scientific, yet a group blog is scientific? 65.95.41.70 00:28, 27 August 2006 (UTC)
Just to interfere here, but a blog doesnt belong on Wikipedia: WP:EL. Yes? HawkerTyphoon 00:45, 27 August 2006 (UTC)
The following was posted in the article:
If you look at the reference provided it says that smog clearing has 'accelerated' global warming but it says nothing about it being a cause of global warming. Thus, with the source provided, I dont think it makes sense to place this under alternate theories. Brusegadi 04:21, 28 August 2006 (UTC)
I've been starting to cite using < ref > because it says that is in the todo section but the problem is something glitched, when I preview the cites start at 1 but when I actually save it they cites start at double however there are. So if you check the references section it doubles up does anyone have any idea how I can fix this. Reverting doens't seem to help. SirGrant 00:52, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
Please review the discussion on references styles for this article, now preserved in Archive 9 [3]. This has been a problem issue in the past. Vsmith 02:22, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
Ignore the above the problem got fixed I think it was just some sort of browser error. Regardless I was wondering what we should do about the citations, I would be happy to go about changing all the links to this format:
{{
cite web}}
: Unknown parameter |coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (
help)However I do abide my wikipedias rules and if the current ruling was to leave it as was I'll go back and undo my edits. Sorry about not going through the archives there is just so much stuff it's like a book to read of just talk pages. So if anyone has any oppinions on what I should do I would appriciate it. I would also like to note that I do think the < ref > system is better than having the links in brackets like [ www.whatever.com ] because I think by doing that firstly it is not asthetically pleasing and doesn't contain information about the source you are citing. However I will say it again I will follow the rules and if people decided that it should stay the way it was I'll revert it. Thanks SirGrant 19:38, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
I'm back :-) I'm still of the opinion that two-clicks-to-link is really really annoying... I'm with Vsmith on this William M. Connolley 19:44, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
Well, the same problem again. I just got my edition removed after adding a {{cite web}} reference; it was really annoying. Nevertheless, I must say I didn't read the discussion page before, the same error SirGrant made some months before. However, I really think links like "[1]" don't say very much... adding the quotation inside the article is even better than going to the reference webpage and looking for it. Doesn't a quotation like:
"Summary for policymakers". Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2001. Retrieved October 2006. The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate
{{
cite web}}
: Check date values in: |accessdate=
(
help); Unknown parameter |coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (
help); Unknown parameter |month=
ignored (
help)
say a lot more and help maintain the references in order? -- _N_e_g_r_u_l_i_o 04:27, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
I have just tried experimenting with using inline Harvard references just with Amstrup. Let me know if I should go on with this. (It is on the to do list). I personally have come to the conclusion I prefere footnotes but I won't reopen that old argument....--
NHSavage 22:37, 7 November 2006 (UTC). I kust reverted this. Either I am being stupid or the Harvard templates are not yet sophisticated enough. I can't get it to do (Amstrup et al, 2006) and link to the harvard citation. If this doesn't work there is no point in using it in IMHO.--
NHSavage
22:47, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
I was doing my weekly reading of realclimate, and I saw the Ritson links. Mainly:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/house06/RitsonWegmanRequests.pdf
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/house06/RitsonLetterWaxman.pdf
I feel that if we include the Wegman we should at least be entitled to: 1) Place the links above in the 'Other' external links part of the article, since they bring into question the credibility of the W report in a scientific manner. 2) We could simply remove the W report altogether for the reasons in 1. 3) we could make an article about the wegeman report as someone suggested above. The article would mention the controversy surrounding the report.
If my view is accepted, then I vote for either of the first two options. Also, if most prefer option three, we would have to mention the report in the main article (in order to provide a link) and remove it form the 'other' external links. Thanks and have a lovely day, Brusegadi 03:55, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
There is now an article on Wegman, the guy, and most of the stuff about the report is there. Perhaps we should place this there?? Brusegadi 22:03, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
I know the point of an article on "global warming" is largely to talk about the recent climate warming and how it might have large affects on human civilization, but isnt the article becoming political and non-sientific by totally omitting just what this warming means in terms of the history of the planet over geological time? Temperature and CO variation over millions of years is an order of magnitute greater then what is measureable since the industrial revolution.
Also the biomass section is not up to date it was just in the mainsteam news recently that there were studies showing biomass increasing with increased CO2 INDEPENDENT of other factors like soil and water. http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/articles/V9/N33/B3.jsp
—Preceding unsigned comment added by 64.69.112.122 ( talk • contribs)
I seem to remember hearing a while back that the theory of global warming was disproven. Several times I think. PowderedToastMan 08:04, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
NimNick writes: "You act the fool", "Global warming alarmism is a religion, not science", "Troll" &tc. By your condescending tone, you have lost any modicum of respect here and will be ignored. Skyemoor 21:10, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
see here. Count Iblis 13:23, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
Since we seem to be enjoying the absurd task of exchanging credentials in wikipedia, allow me to say that I am Emeritus Professor at -University of your choice.- I will not say my name, since they may stop funding my research. Besides, I promised my wife I was going to stop having pointless arguments in Wikipedia... On a more serious note, the funding argument is bogus. I wonder how much Exxon would be willing to pay a scientist, if the latter found strong, REAL, evidence against global warming. So far, the only thing EXXON has been able to fund are mere distractions, aimed at the general public, that would be read with abundant humor by the academic circles if it were not for the fact that what we have at stake is the well being of our planet! Yet, since I enjoy morbid humor, they make me laugh all the same.
Brusegadi
21:25, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
Before we get distracted onto the tedious funding arguements, perhaps we could return to a subtle point which I fear you all missed... what do you notice about Randall Cerveny, Oliver Frauenfeld, or Robert E. Davis? Yes, thats right, they are all red links. It doesn't bode well for their importance. So instead of tedious talk, how about someone who considers them of any importance (hello, septics!) writing a decent article about them, *including* what they think about GW, nicely sourced to published papers. Now *that* would be useful. BTW, thanks for mentioning SC - nice to know where you're getting all your ideas from William M. Connolley 22:43, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
There is new ice core data from the British Antarctic Survey, showing carbon dioxide levels as higher than at any point in 800,000 years. Does this constitute reliable enough information to replace the existing figures in this article? I'll leave that up to the experts on this page, but it seems to deserve consideration. 130.195.86.38 12:01, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
OK, having given the details of the original post here a thorough beating, can we now aknowledge its point? If there are in fact reliable ice core samples for the past 650,000 years, and CO2 levels are higher today than at any point since then, we have to ask at least two questions: 1. Have C02 levels been steadily increasing (on average) over the past 650,000 years? or 2. Is there a significant deviation in the trend at some point near the start of the industrial revolution? A third question, possibly, cuold be: Is there a correlation between human population increase and CO2 increase? These are relatively simple questions, and I would be surprised if the global scientific community had not already begun to investigate them, yet data of this nature seems to be very pervasive (or nobody agress). Or am I just not reading enough, or carefully enough? The proof is in the pudding. -Nick
See here. Count Iblis 19:01, 7 September 2006 (UTC)
1. "Global warming" is a fact - it's definitely warmer now than when it was colder (profound, no?) 2. The rate of current warming and the identity of the most significant climate forcings are contentious items in the debate. 3. Land use change and other activities guarantee some human influence on climate - the degree is contentious. 4. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams indicate rapid warming ongoing. 5. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams are composites gathered from less than 1% of the Earth's surface. 6. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams are subject to local influences. 7. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams have suffered significant urbanization with the closure of rural recording stations. 8. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams are adjusted for UHIE corruption - the degree and the methodology are contentious. 9. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams vary widely by region, with better financed and maintained regions showing little warming. 10. Radiosonde balloon measures test the well-mixed atmosphere. 11. Radiosonde balloon measures are significantly less subject to local influences and UHIE than near-surface temperature readings. 12. Radiosonde balloon measures do not indicate atmospheric warming in the 1,000mtr-10,000mtr height where enhanced greenhouse warming should theoretically be readily apparent by now. 13. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units test the well-mixed atmosphere. 14. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units provide near-global coverage. 15. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units are not subject to local influences or UHIE. 16. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units suggest a small tropospheric warming trend (about three-fourths of one degree (C) per century). 17. General Circulation Climate Models are programmed to show warming proportionate to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. 18. General Circulation Climate Models do exactly as they are programmed to do. 19. General Circulation Climate Models cannot yet be programmed with the complexity of the atmosphere. 20. General Circulation Climate Models have yet to demonstrate greater predictive power than a table of random numbers.
Arvin Sloane ( talk · contribs)
All a bit dull, and badly formatted to boot. If you're interested in eductating yourself, you want urban heat island and satellite temperature record William M. Connolley 08:40, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Specious I'd say. Jefffire 08:47, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Milloy as a source of scientific input?? "Sloane", you show all the signs of a political hack. You've shown that you are clearly not a scientist, and are attempting to further a political agenda (with typical extremist name-calling). We know a troll when we see one and it is not William Connelley who is the troll in this thread. Skyemoor 11:23, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Several of Milloy's contentions are simply wrong (e.g., "General Circulation Climate Models are programmed to show warming proportionate to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels"), several are red herrings (e.g., "General Circulation Climate Models do exactly as they are programmed to do" -- ALL computer programs do exactly as they are programmed to do!), and some of the rest are outdated. If you are going to write a new article or make significant changes then you should be more diligent in verifying your sources. Raymond Arritt 12:30, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Where do you count 2 vs. 3? Besides, it will not be removed. Its too important. On another note, is there a wiki policy against being under the influence when editing? Brusegadi 15:18, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
How much money have you placed in global warming bets? You could be a rich man... Also, your problem probably has not to do with cookies, since you state that you are signed in when you first enter wiki, and it is only when you edit that you are logged out... Defently contact them Brusegadi 03:56, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
Michael Crichton doesn't think so, and from what i understand, he's actually a scientist, not just some left winger on the internet. Why does this article ignore his conclusions about "man made" warming?--— (Kepin) RING THE LIBERTY BELL 12:57, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
I think it is advisable to restrict our discussions to editing the article, not what celebrities think about the topic. -- TeaDrinker 07:54, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
Who defines "competent"? And which scientists get to weigh in and be counted as part of the "consensus"? Do physicists and astronomers get to have their say? If there's a list of individual scientists and thier qualifications, I'd love to see it. I'm just curious and would like to verify who this consensus really is. But I'm not going to to take something at face value just because someone says it really loud and pounds his fist. -- LoudMouth 17:43, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
Global Warming – An alternative Theory
Introduction
There can be little doubt that global warming is occurring. The current wisdom is that this is due to the Greenhouse effect of global emissions, hence the Kyoto agreement. However there is a simpler and potentially more worrying possibility.
Energy usage
Mankind has become a huge consumer of Energy. Well, physically speaking, this is not possible, because, except by nuclear power, Energy can neither be created nor destroyed. It is simply converted from one form to another – usually heat.
So when you are burning fossil fuels in your car, you are releasing energy stored in the fossil fuels as heat (and kinetic energy – movement, which also ultimately gets converted to heat). Where does this heat go? It would be tempting to think that it is radiated or released into space, but lets think about that. The temperature of space is close to absolute zero, and the rate of heat loss is proportion to the difference in temperature. Historically we have been in approximate equilibrium, which is to say that the heat coming in (from the sun) equals the heat going out (due to difference in temperature). We are not changing the size of the Earth, nor its mass, so any heat we add to the equation must result in a temperature rise until a new equilibrium is reached. So if we are generating say 1% of the sun’s heat, the global temperature must also rise by 1% (nearly 3 degrees Celsius) in order for us to successfully get rid of it into space as fast as we are generating it. That is regardless of any Greenhouse Gas effect (which only makes matters worse).
More bad news
This means that controlling Green House gases will not save us. What is more, it doesn’t matter what the energy source is, unless it is the sun itself (and not historical sun, such as in fossil fuels). Nuclear energy is just as bad as fossil fuels. Wind and Wave energy are just as bad too. The only safe energy in this regard is plant energy, so bio-diesel, plant oils, solar panels and wood burning are all OK, but that is about it. All of this energy has been provided by the sun in its recent history, BUT, of course, we must not reduce the total plant mass, so it must not just be a renewable, but a source that has been renewed. There is no way to cheat.
The good news
The good news is that this is not runaway global warming. If we mend our ways and use the right sources of energy (and that means more forests, albeit farmed and managed), the earth will eventually return to the old equilibrium, except for the effects of greenhouse gasses.
OOO - Own Opinions Only
Dave Mear.
Just a thought. Is this REALLY original?
I have seen this in a (factual) book by Isaac Asimov - that is, the idea that all forms of energy used by humans end up as heat, which must be radiated into space - so the more energy we generate, the hotter we'll get. Think of one possible energy source - solar energy stations in space, beaming the energy to receivers on earth. Now surely if the total energy we receive from the sun increases - shouldn't we get hotter, as the energy is converted to different forms and eventually becomes heat? And wouldn't this also apply to increases in energy conversion on earth - eg from nuclear sources, or fossil fuels? If it's true that "the amount of heat radiated away from an object is not proportional to its temperature " (I don't know, I'm not a physicist) then Asimov seems to be wrong in this case. Just thinking out loud! -- Exile 11:48, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
The connection to Asimov reminded me of the Dyson sphere. — Mac Davis] ( talk) ( Desk| Help me improve)
There seems to be unusually high vandalism. Perhaps it has to do with the debut of An Inconvenient truth in Australia? Anyhow, should we place an anti vandal tag?? Brusegadi 15:51, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
Global warming will effect everyone in the world.
I think there needs to be more recogninition that more than a "small minority" of scientist disagree on global warming. I think it is important from a credibility POV to not appear so biased in presenting a wiki and its important to remain objective and not emotional. Objectivity and a lack of emotion are hallmarks to great science. I should know, I am an engineer who graduated top of his class and have recently graduated from Oxford law school, not only that but my fiance is a PhD in astro physics at the university of Hawaii. We get pretty steamed when there is bad science out there and to spin science is wrong. I think it is wrong to discount the disenting voices in the global warming debate. I think it is always better to debate and disagree than to not debate at all. And when the wiki is saying only a "small minority of scientists disagree", that is really shutting down that important area of debate. Lets keep the wikis unbiased and factual. Its best for all parties involved.
I read here that there shouldn't be a space :) Count Iblis 17:47, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
The ° of course refers directly to the numeral, so should always be attached to it. The C is short for Celsius, so could be seperate, as if it were written in full, but I think would look a little lonely by itself. -- Michael Johnson 11:23, 15 September 2006 (UTC)
The vitriol with which the "true believers" in global warming defend their hypothesis is merely evidence that they are engaging in confirmation bias. -- The Outhouse Mouse 18:14, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
The global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century. -- Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), page 26.
We estimate that the sun contributed as much as 45–50% of the 1900–2000 global warming... -- Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900–2000 global surface warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05708, doi:10.1029/2005GL025539.
Even the IPCC estimates that there has been a warming influence from the Sun in their radiative forcing summary figure of about 0.25 Watts per meter squared. Adding this 0.25 Watts per meter squared value reduces the percent contribution of CO2 to about 26.5%.
-- What Fraction of Global Warming is Due to the Radiative Forcing of Increased Atmospheric Concentrations of CO2? Professor Roger Pielke Sr., Climate Science
Thus 0.6 °C x 26.5% = 0.16 °C warming from CO2 since the late 19th century.
The temperature effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 is logarithmic -- that is, the per unit effect constantly declines.
Doubling the human contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause somewhat less than 0.1 °C additional warming.
The average seasonal rise in global mean temperature for the period 1880-2004 has been 3.8 °C between January (12.0 °C) and July (15.8 °C) only to decline again. -- Global Surface Temperature Anomalies National Climatic Data Center
This annual warming is almost 20 times the total temperature increase possible from doubling the pre-Industrial Revolution level of atmospheric carbon dioxide and yet there is no sign of "runaway" water vapor-driven warming.
Of all the things humans should worry about, atmospheric CO2 isn't one of them. We are being told to look in the wrong direction. Why? — (Quoted from www.junkscience.com)
Arvin Sloane, 04:12, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
I have tried to insert a link to an author who discovered serious flaws in Oreskes essay on the so called "consensus".
Those in the game know that there no such thing but the interesting thing about Oreskes essay is that it is used by the Alarmist side in order to try to kill the debate. I also therefore question the very silly headline describing the researchers opposing the mainstream IPCC view: "List of scientists opposing global warming consensus" Well, since there are credible scientists opposing IPCC then THERE IS NO CONSENSUS how can they then oppose something that does not exist? It is like writing a "nice murderer" or something.
Yes I have a science degree and my main subject is aerosols.
IPCC and the biased text is political.
I am worried that the other parts of science are beginning to shake their heads at climate science. It seems that "evidence" are very easy to come by. The same reasoning is simply not possible in other research fields.
On the other hand they are not politically saturated in the same way. It is beacuse of this, totally impossible to end an article waithout stating that "it is very likely that the observed/measured/calculated/modelled changes are due to anthropogenic influences". To say with the same degree of uncertainty " It is very likely that the observed/measured/cluclated/modeled changes are within the range of normal variations" is simply suicide.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/19/scientists.bush.ap/
The Alarmist church will then crucify you and you can kiss your fundings good-bye. Oh, well science will survive. But humanity will be sent along the wrong track for a long time before it awakens. And next time "sience" cries "the wolf is coming" surely with a higher degree of certainty, nobody will be listening.
83.177.104.192 19:31, 18 September 2006 (UTC)Jan Lindström
I agree with "the mouse" that the article is biased. It has been so for at least the past 3 years.
The article clearly favors the alarmist POV of supporters of the anthrogpenic (human-caused) global warming theory (AGW). The viewpoint of AGW supporters is that all the science is on their side, but several prominont statisticians and scientists disagree. The article should not place undue weight on the pro-AGW side. -- Uncle Ed 20:55, 2 October 2006 (UTC)
Maybe include stuff from the new NASA survey that is talked about at the BBC website recently -- 217.42.3.37 15:34, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
Rambling essay? moved to User talk:Beroccaboy
Vsmith 13:57, 16 September 2006 (UTC)
I reverted the link added because besides not belonging here, it is misleading. We should try to improve the article and stop misleading the reader. WMC has shown much evidence that scientific concensus on global cooling during the 70s was non-existent. Scientists made it clear that they were not sure and that they did not have the tools to be sure, etc. Thus, comparing global warming with global cooling is unfair to the reader. Brusegadi 16:18, 17 September 2006 (UTC)
--- Begin cut container
By far the biggest contributor to the natural greenhouse effect is atmospheric water vapour, which accounts for 98% of the effect seen. citation needed Again here there is clear evidence of a feedback mechanism at work, with greater evapo-transpiration rates and greater atmospheric water holding capacity. citation needed Some models of climate change miss out the water vapour effect, but although this helps simplify the maths, citation needed it leaves the validity of the model in question. citation needed The nay-sayers quote this repeatedly, attempting the discredit the climate models [7], and disprove the anthropogenic origin of the current trends, but it can clearly be demonstrated that human activities are contributing both directly and indirectly to the increased loading of this overwhelmingly important contributor to climate change. [8]
--- End cut continer -- Rednblu 21:05, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
What natural causes are there? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.52.175.91 ( talk • contribs)
This seems interesting. Is it addressed in the article? How long will it take someone here to vilify him & "discredit" him? -- LoudMouth 13:37, 21 September 2006 (UTC)
I am not sure if this is the right place to present this, but perhaps it would be a good idea to present the facts surrounding the "controversy" over Global Warming. I myself am quite convinced of Global warming, but to present the anti-warming arguments together with the pro-warming arguments might serve to enlighten those who are uncertain. I realize this is a political debate more than it is a scientific debate, but perhaps that will be evidenced by the realities at hand. Just my 2 cents. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 24.184.52.69 ( talk • contribs) .
See Global warming controversy Skyemoor 10:05, 22 September 2006 (UTC)
I think we need a separate article on government responses to global warming, which could cover some of the political pheonomena around global warming.-- NYCJosh 15:02, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
I'm new to Wiki editing and have little idea of what I am doing. I'm sure that if I have erred further editing will correct it. Anyone who is able to provide assistance or suggestions is welcome to contact me Rks1.
I have been researching global warming studies and was very surprised to find fundamental data problems and problems with scientific methodologies, often rendering the studies of no scientific value imho. Since the research is not published, I guess that any reference to it will be removed from Wiki. I do point out however that my research is very easily verified.
Simply because a subject is important and of benefit or potential harm to humanity, does not mean that evidence for it should be adjusted, especially where evidence to a contrary position will occur without the adjustment. Scientific methodologies adopted should be such that the research should be repeatable by the researcher and verifiable by others.
I added some extra alternatives to the section on alternative theories. I have citations for much of it but don't know the best way to add all that in.
Since the issue of scientific methodologies is critical to the advancement of any science, and since I have discovered the flaws and found others who have also done so, I thought it might be appropriate to have a new page titled something like "Scientific Methodologies in Global Warming Studies". Is this reasonable? Is it reasonable to provide a citation to the study and then references to the data or other resource that suggests that the data or methodology is flawed, in the absence of a published article that does the same thing? What about the problem of criticising individuals by implication because of referring to their research in respect to a specific type of flaw in scientific method? And what of those that edit these pages that have published articles. Please do not take this as a statement that your article or paper is biased or flawed. Obviously it just applies to the papers I have thus far reviewed and yours could not possibly be amongst them.
So do I wait until my research is complete, attempt to get it published and then attempt to create the new page. This could be eighteen months or so and I am not confident of getting published because I have already come in for substantial criticism for finding the flaws. I must sound like an idiot but I have never worked in academia, only had a couple of minor things published and then all that was arranged by the co-authors who did work in Universities. I have almost no contact with others and was greatly surprised when approached to carry out some research in global warming. Even now I have no idea about the right way to do much of anything in relation to the research. I am directed to studies and asked to review the data, the adjustments made to the raw data and the validity of such adjustments etc. I'm just trying to muddle through. That is not to say I am not good at research or more specifically analysis of data and its uses.
As to the research I would have prefered I did not find more than what I thought I would be researching: "unintentional bias" due to the fervour that Global Warming generates. I did not think I would not find a single paper that does not rely on suspect data, or methods that sometimes even seem to amount to scientific fraud.
I'm not even sure this is how I ask these questions.
Later Addition - including some background Since I wrote this I have been reading other entries rather than skimming, which I did before. It seems that some qualification of qualifications :-) is required. I have a degree in Climatology from studying in the late 70s. My main interest has been and remains the causes of flips between glaciations and interglacial periods and the time such switches take, not global warming (it may not sound scientific but I like the imagery of the climate flipping - strange things amuse me). Whether it was true or not, never greatly interested me. What caused global warming held some interest but not a great deal because there have been warmer interglacial periods and probably warmer parts of this one. Now if there was evidence of global cooling and even a remote chance of the process being the start of a new glaciation that would have been another matter. Pity the cooling period in the 70s was just a little fluctuation (well, actually that is not right - if it did herald a return to Little Ice Age conditions that would have been very bad for humanity - so it might have been academically interesting but not something I would wish on the world just because I would like to study it).
I am perhaps much better qualified to review data and other research because that is what I basically did for more than 20 years although not in the field of climatology, undertaking field research, employing experts in various scientific fields as required, wading through often reems of competing expert opinion, distilling it all into plain English, and determining just what really happened in the events I was asked to consult on. Mostly they were engineering matters but I also undertook studies into incidents in diverse fields. I was well respected in my field and specialised in only the most complex of matters. I was challenged occasionally in my conclusions but this generally turned out to be a very expensive excersise in futility for the challenger. I liked to be extremely thorough and as unbiased as any human can be when they are paid by the representative of one or a limited number of parties involved in a matter.
I am researching studies on global warming and have been attempting to find a university that will allow me to continue this as research for a PhD in Climatology (so far without any luck at all basically because I am not rich, I am severely disabled, so need to do the dissertation in my own country where I have been offered funding, and there does not seem to be any post graduate programs that fit what I wish to do. I've been offered PhD studies in other fields but what is the point of another doctorate in a field in which I do not have a passion). Rks1 03:31, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
I can but wonder what the Wiki entry would be in 1961 for the make up of the earth's crust, and the alternative theory section mentioning continental drift either disparagingly or not at all.
If I can get an answer to the question of how best to put in all the citations I'll resubmit and see if it is left in.
Richard Rks1
I've expanded Rudimann's explanation of neolithic global warming, and separated out the effects of methane and carbon dioxide, as outlined in his Scientific American article. His argument is based on what he sees as anomalous behaviour in the current interglacial. As such the previous criticism (which was original research) didn't seem relevant (since Rudimann does not claim that we would be in an ice age without this effect) so I've commented it out for the moment. If no one objects I'll remove it at a later date. -- Michael C. Price talk 09:02, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
I haven't read the entire SCiAm thing, but I've read him elsewhere. But CO2 wasn't rising over the last 1ky - [10] - though it may have risen from earlier. However, let me re-iterate the point I made earlier - there needs to be balance here, to make i clear that this is a minority view William M. Connolley 12:21, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
I've added (again) that a reference that is being presented as a general rebuttal of Rudimann is only referring to his interpretation of the methane data and does not address his interpretation of the CO2 data. Please do not revert this without discussion. If there exists a more general critique then find the cite please. -- Michael C. Price talk 08:25, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, anyone remember the global bird flu epidemic killing millions. Or the biblical aids epidemic killing nearly all americans... this global warming has the same smell about it(largely insignificant as a result of technological innovation and market forces, causality not well understood, with any true short term effects turned into a self facilitating, self promoting end-of-world belief system). I actually feel sorry for the scientists doing research showing little or no changes to the environment. They don't get funding, publicity, awards, invites etc.
I guess it's every person to blame. People just like believing the extreme version of what they don't understand and creating hysteria. People also seem to like to punish themselves to absolve ourselves from guilt about having a reasonable standard of living in a world where most people are poor or some other reasons. Environmental evangalists often request that its not enough to quietly reduce your environmental impact. You must make a performance of any acts and clearly display and label any paraphanalia and join in the promotional nature typical of a belief system.
Even prof. suzuki says that the causes are unknown. Lets cast doubt on how to avoid global warming on wikipedia until the cause(s) are widely agreed.
Global Warming can be good for low heating bills though.
And great for Democrats! (they hope) LoudMouth 19:46, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
Just an interesting find that's been hitting the news lately. [11] A writer better than myself may wish to work this development into the current article. --AWF
I do not think that it is appropriate to discuss what global warming MAY do (NB: "Spread of Disease" section in the article). Rather, it would be more appropriate to discuss the scientific observations made along those lines -- to the extent such observations exist. -- The Outhouse Mouse 13:38, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
I wonder if it would be possible to have Messrs Connolley & Schulz develop a rule for what they believe appropriate links are so there will be no confusion over this issue. -- The Outhouse Mouse 19:11, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
Raul654 made the following comment when deleting one of my edits (NB: it was a link to the homepage of the US Senate Environment & Public Works Committee): "...the EPA is interested in the real facts and isn't funded by the gas indutstry, unlike half the enviromental committeee." I cite this as a prime example of his bias. -- The Outhouse Mouse 19:14, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
I'm not active with this article, but I just noticed the recent edit by Raul654, who removed the "citation needed" for the sentence "For a climate model to be accepted by the scientific community as being valid it must first be shown that it does a good job of simulating known climate variations, such as the difference between summer and winter, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or El Niño." with the edit summary "rm idiotic citation required - of course a simulation has to agree with real life data to be valid."
I disagree with this edit for two reasons. First, we shouldn't be making deductions that aren't obvious to everyone. If someone challenges a statement by adding the "fact" tag, it should be sourced. Second, and maybe more importantly, a model does not have to be able to capture variation on one time scale (like yearly) to be valid on another time scale (like decadal). For example, many of the most well-respected ecological models have one year time steps, even though they can be used to predict changes in quantities (like leaf area index) that change even more from season to season than they do from year to year. So the statement may be held true within the field of climate science, but if so a citation should be available. The statement isn't obviously true just from knowing about models and validity. -- Allen 06:58, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
This sentence doesn't seem to make sense. "The Earth's average near-surface atmospheric temperature rose by 6000 degrees yesterday 0.6 ± 0.2 °Celsius (1.1 ± 0.4 °Fahrenheit) in the 20th century." (second Paragraph, lead section) Harryboyles 14:00, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
"...Both land and open water are less reflective than ice, ... cycle."
It can't be a cycle if it will eventually end, because the ice is all going to melt, eventually.
So it's not a cycle :|
It doesn't matter whether someone is independently well-known. The AGW theory and everything else related to global warming is controversial. (In the US, the general public is split 50-50 on whether the AGW is true or not, for example.)
We include alternate views, not because they are TRUE but because they are "verifiable". Wikipedia must not take a position on whether AGW is good science or not. It should merely identify the advocates and critics of the POV.
Having identified WHO is for or against AGW and other GW aspects, we should also explain WHY these parties assert the POVs they assert. But we should not do the original research of trying to figure out what is true or false. If there is a dispute on an aspect or point, we should be NEUTRAL on that aspect or point.
I propose a thorough rewrite of the article,
to sort out which are the points universally agreed upon, and which are the disputed points. To begin with, all sides agree that surface-recorded temperatures rose from 1850 approximately 1 degree Fahrenheit, dropped half a degree from 1940 to 1970, and rose again. What is disputed is how accurate those reading are, as well as what proportion of this warming/cooling/warming is natural or man-made.
There are also models. I've heard various viewpoints on whether these represent falsifiable hypotheses. This needs fleshing out.
Then there are the various atmosphere layers. What does AGW theory say about surface, near-surface, 5 miles up, 10 miles up, etc.? Has AGW made any testable predictions (see Falsifiablity) about the temperature record at various heights in the atmosphere? If not, which groups or individuals maintain that AGW is still a valid hypothesis? If so, which groups or individuals have compared temps at various heights with theoretical predictions, and what are their conclusions?
North and South poles: What does AGW say about the polar ice cap at the North pole, glaciers in Greenland, and ice in Antarctica?
What is the role of land use? And what are the various ideas about the Urban Heat Island effect's influence on surface and near-surface temperature readings? Which groups or individuals say that the influence is negligible; easily correctible with a small number like 0.1 C degrees; or "contaminating" the surface record?
What about the hockey stick? (There used to be an article just about this graph and the controversy over this, but this has been suppressed.) M&M's claim that Mann's software makes even random inputs look hockeystick-shaped is missing (or hard to find). It should be included as an alternate view. It's not "undue weight" to do so.
And what is the relationship of the hockeystick to AGW? Which groups or individuals say that it is important evidence of AGW theory? Who dismisses its importance? Is there anyone who says that, if Mann's reconstruction is vindicated, this means AGW is confirmed but if not then AGW is not confirmed?
Wikipedia should not take sides on any aspect of the dispute over global warming. It should merely report what various groups and individuals claim, and (where possible) also summarize the reasons they give for their claims. Anything else violates Wikipedia:NPOV. -- Uncle Ed 14:10, 3 October 2006 (UTC)
The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"[1], though there is a sizable minority who disagree with this assessment. [and a brief explanation of the controversy here: why there is a diversity of opinion]
The increased amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are proportedly the primary causes of the human-induced component of warming.
Guys, I don't even take a stance on this issue, but removing the {{POV}} template is absolutely ridiculous. Someone (and in fact, several someones) happen to think that the article has a bias, and that needs to show at the top. This issue shouldn't even be up for discussion. Is your opinion of the article show fragile that it will be hurt because someone's claims that it's not a neutral point of view? I don't even care if you add all sides in, but the {{POV}} needs to stay. - Patstuart 18:26, 3 October 2006 (UTC)
To quote from Wikipedia:NPOV dispute:
Placing the {pov} tag means that the contents of the article are disputed and volatile. And if there's an edit war over whether the tag should be applied or not, the standard is that it remain. You should not revert the insertion of {{ pov}} more than once. That's the guideline, so please follow it. -- Uncle Ed 16:10, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
How s... is that? Look at this text: Outlaw ‘Climate Change denial’? The chilling effect on free speech. There's really people proposing to outlaw ‘climate change denial’. Man. -- 84.146.140.247 18:56, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
The amount of vandalism on this page seems to be a bit much... anyone for semi-protecting it? William M. Connolley 17:53, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
OK, I *have* semi-protected it; this is getting too tedious. I've done this somewhat tentatively, so if anyone objects, either reverse it (if you can) or argue it here... William M. Connolley 18:19, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
In case you need more voices, I also think that vandalism has been too much. Brusegadi 21:31, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
"The natives are restless". 'Nuff said. I tire of debating, and bid you all adieu.--------- Nufacion 17:44, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
Now back to the issue of semi-protect. Yesterday there was a rise in vandalism by anon users, so the semi-protect was justifiable. However one comment in this discussion does disturb me: ::: "I think we should thank Nuf for making such a convincing case for semi-pro :-) William M. Connolley 12:18, 5 October 2006 (UTC)". Semi-protection should not be used as a response to regular content disputes, since it may restrict some editors and not others. Ramsquire 18:04, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
I hope to say this only once: there is clearly no scientific nor general public consensus, as seen in these articles, http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17181 and http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=280, as to the reality of human-induced global warming, whether it is true or not. It is not a "small minority" of scientists, nor a group of industrial lackeys seeking to grow fat on the profits of ruining the planet for the next generation; as such, global warming is a legitimate scientific debate in which both sides deserve equal mention. Now, I do not care if you think the dissenting scientists are misguided and acting on false information, but bear in mind that as strongly as you believe in something, it can only make it YOUR unshakable belief, and you will never, ever be able to make those who disagree with you just disappear, merely because you know you are right. Now, regardless of what you think are proofs of global warming, human-induced or otherwise, there is a clear voice of dissent in this debate. There, I've said my part; the rest is up to the wikipedians to decide. Nufacion 12:05, 11 October 2006 (UTC)
-- Jayson Virissimo 02:28, 6 October 2006 (UTC)
This article needs to be re-structured in order to:
To put global warmimg in perspective we have to look at natural temperature variation:
In other words life on earth has survived significantly higher temperatures, the ice will be back and its consequences could be a threat to life on earth (WW 3), and climatology is so complex that scientific opinion has about-faced in the last 30 or so years.
From a scientific or at least relatively non-political view the important questions are:
The subject gets very political as soon as we ask the obvious next question: If the temperature is currently changing and we think the rate or expected size of change is undesirable, how much can we do about it?
Reasons why it gets political:
You will notice that politicians and officials (who dispense research grants) have a systematic bias towards research which supports interventionist policies.
Literature surveys like that by Oreskes only reflect the current distribution of research grants and should not be quoted here - or ever: a literature survey in 1500 AD would have supported the view that the Earth is flat.
Despite being a "feature article", the Global warming article falls into the following traps:
These failings make it urgent to revise the article.
At the same time it is necessary first to make sure that the result fits into the structure of Wikipedia, particularly in relation to the climate change article:
Philcha 22:56, 12 October 2006 (UTC)
In 1972 Emiliani warned of the possibility of "a runaway glaciation", unless human-caused global warming instead causes "a runaway deglaciation". By 1972 a large majority of a group of leading glacial-epoch experts at a conference agreed that "the natural end of our warm epoch is undoubtedly near"; .....
Philcha 11:58, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
I tried to claim there was uncertainty, I was shot down; I claimed there is a debate about whether there is uncertainty, I was yelled at; now I claim there is a dispute about whether there is a debate about the uncertainty, and I hope at least this I shall be granted. Nufacion 09:26, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
This article should include information about the Green Party in Germany's plans to close all of Germany's many nuclear plants and what effect this will have on global warming and Germany's compliance with the Kyoto Accord. For example how many fossil fueled power plants will have to be built to replace the lost power and how much CO2 will they emit.
Or do they plan to replace the power? If they have some novel solution to power plants it would be very interesting to all of us. The number of power plants they will shut down is a significant number. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 72.155.162.73 ( talk • contribs) 13 October 2006.
http://www.eon-netz.com/Ressources/downloads/EON_Netz_Windreport2005_eng.pdf
I haven't been active on this page for a while now (I occasionally revert vandalism, not much else) and I'm a bit disappointed it seems to have deteriorated. In fact, I'm pretty tempted to take it to WP:FAR. Reasons: the lead needs quite a bit of work to conform to WP:LEAD, using direct external links as refs makes it look extremely unprofessional ( meta:cite would be much better), several of the sub-sections under Predicted effects are stubby, as are those under Other related issues. Mikker (...) 18:49, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
User: 64.201.7.190 has added a merge tag to suggest merging climate change with global warming without any discussion. The merge suggestion also does not seem to be listed at Wikipedia:Proposed mergers. I don't think this suggestion has any merrit - one article deals with climate change in general, the other one with the ongoing episode of (mostly) GHG driven global warming. Unless there is significant support, I'm going to remove the tags. -- Stephan Schulz 22:04, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
If an anon can add that, why do we have to wait so much time to simply remove it??? To be a good American made capitalist I will say 'Just Do it' Brusegadi 01:03, 14 October 2006 (UTC)
Larry Sanger, as most everyone knows, is one of the original founders of Wikipedia. When asked about Wikipedia, he had this to say: "The latest articles don't represent a consensus view - they tend to become what the most persistent 'posters' say." Daily Mail article
This [18] is wrong (its in response to the Svensmark cloud chamber stuff, which doesn't demonstrate it anyway, but...) because the GCRs is just a subset of the solar variation (GCRs themselves don't change; they are modulated by solar variation, which is then supposed to change the clouds William M. Connolley 13:49, 20 October 2006 (UTC)
Can somebody please show the difference between the North atlantic drift and the Thermohaline circulation. It appears in the article as if they are the same thing, but I thought they were different. Also, i think more needs to be added to altrnate theories- it is still not completely proven that it is global warming. i think this should be mentioned -- Chickenfeed9 12:58, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Archive 10 | ← | Archive 14 | Archive 15 | Archive 16 | Archive 17 | Archive 18 | → | Archive 20 |
What are general feelings on links to advocacy organizations as references? My view is that links to groups that 'spin' the science to promote a particular viewpoint -- whether the Sierra Club on the one hand or the co2science.org on the other -- belong in a separate article on policy. At the very least, links to such organizations shouldn't be under the general heading 'Scientific', which to me implies some attempt at objectivity. Raymond Arritt 01:33, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Seeing as how it used to redirect here-- 172.162.149.247 15:23, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Could somebody more familiar with global carbon absorbtion please add that oceans actually absorb over 50% of the worlds carbon, a common misconception is that plants and trees absorb most of the world's carbon. This is important as the more carbon the oceans absorb, the more acidic they become (carbonic acid). Once ocean acidity reaches a certain level it will start to kill the ocean wildlife, starting with plankton, and as plankton is at the bottom of the food chain, this will decimate the entire chain. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 85.210.30.128 ( talk • contribs) 13:57, 2 August 2006
Ok, mild acid. Is not so much the "mild acid" part but the pH. The point is that no matter the acid, if the pH goes down too much so of the excessive H will begin reacting with vital minerals in sea water. As the presence of such minerals decline, the calcium that makes up the skeletons of some of this animals becomes a very attractive reacting partner for the excessive H ions.
Is acidification of the oceans a potential compounding effect? i.e. if plankton start to die due to acidification, will that release methane or cause the oceans to absorb less CO2 thereafter?
Anyone think Al Gore had edited some of this page? I am sure he has......he loves the subject.
So, since evolution is disputed in the US we should indeed give some room to creationist in wiki? It would lower our standards. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 ( talk • contribs)
Good idea Ed. Lets insist that "flat earthers" be allowed to dispute that the earth is round, and add POV warnings to all the astronomy articles on that basis... while were about it, lets re-write the NPOV policy to remove the undue weight clause... William M. Connolley 19:28, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
There has never been scientific concensus that the earth was round. Thats like saying that there was scientific concensus that hell and heaven exist... There was general belief in the flatness of the earth but it has nothing to do with science. It was general. Also, be careful when you talk about the "scientific" because science back in the day was hardly distinguishable from philosophy, mathematics, and even "religion" (yep, bad spirits are the cause of disease.) It is only in more recent times when specialization has led clear boundaries across fields. Talk about politics. Any one know what happened to the first guy that proved that the square root of two could not be rational...? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 ( talk • contribs)
Ok, so the environmentalist "INDUSTRY" or the OIL "community leaders!" ?? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 ( talk • contribs)
Ah, this discussion might just go to show us that perhaps what scientists say is influenced many times not by (just) why they think, but what is safe and/or beneficial to say? And if we want to talk about measurements, when were the pyramids built? Does anyone know that? And how did they build them to such precise dimensions, in a place that doesn't change, on exact compass lines? Some things we'll never know, yes. And indeed! That has nothing to do with Global Warming. Nor with Al Gore.
Gruß Gott!! --- πΔΩΦ 04:19, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
Stephan - (1)Eratosthenes did not prove that the earth was round, he merely used mathematics to estimate its shape and circumference; in other words, he created a model. Models are not proof. The roundness of the earth wasn't proven (by hard, empirical evidence) until September 6, 1522 when the surviving members of Ferdinand Magellan's expedition finally completed a circumnavigation of the globe. Similarly, GW models must be considered theoretical until future events prove or disprove them. (2) Wide-spread belief that the world was flat persisted well beyond Eratosthenes' time. On his first voyage, Christopher Columbus's crew nearly mutinied over fears that they would sail off the edge of the earth, nearly 1500 years after Eratosthenes. And a question for anyone with an answer - How did Al Gore wind up as the point-man for the crusade against GW? The guy has claimed that he invented the internet and that the movie "Love Story" was about him & Tipper (not to mention the fact that he married Tipper in the first place). Not exactly the paragon of credibility a movement usually looks for in a poster-boy. 130.36.62.140 16:59, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
From reading the article, and especially from reading the discussion page, I have to come to the conclusion that this page needs an unbiased expert to review it. The page appears to have a subtle bias towards those who claim global warming is either A. not caused by humans, B. a good thing, or C. yet to be proven. Anyone with a high school level of experience in the Bio lab can show that bruning fuels increases carbon dioxide levels, so why are even the basics such as this still the subject of debate in the discussion page? It's time the free time wiki-warriors got out of this fight and let some pro's revise it. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 68.49.13.119 ( talk • contribs) .
I must ask what course you teach, if any. I would never teach this controversy in a science course. Otherwise, I would have to teach that HIV does not cause AIDS, that the earth is not necessarily round, and the evolution may not explain species variety (rather, some designer...) There are opposing "scientists" to the scientific concensus in each example I just mentioned, but that does not mean that you have to teach their views becuase they are all economically motivated. (its funny that the ID movement originator is also one of the first to claim that HIV does not cause AIDS. I think he wants label the disease as a punishment for "Bad behavior."
(carriage return) The article accurately reflects the current state of the science. Why mislead K-12 students by giving excessive weight to hypotheses that are not widely accepted by scientists in relevant fields? There's already too much of that going on in the U.S. with respect to evolution and some other topics. Raymond Arritt 02:59, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
Generally speaking, this article is accurate in its overall description, although unfortunately I don't have time to verify all the details. LotR 18:25, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
AS for "anyone with a high school experience" — it isn't so clear cut as you probably know, rarely is there a linear correlation with anything. Elle vécut heureuse à jamais ( Be eudaimonic!) 14:16, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
I come off at times as argumentive (I am) and annoying (I am) and so on and so forth. This article is very good, very well written, very filled with citations supporting the claims. From my viewpoint (Which is: There's a lot of evidence of something but no proof of anything) is that the article is not biased. Nope.
What it is, however, is that it's very focused on some aspects of the debate and not upon others. In that respect, it becomes biased, in a way, by the focus of others who are writing it. That's to be expected. If the subject was one of "absolute" proof or fact, that's a different thing then an article on what causes time, what's the best economic or political system, how much cheese there is in Norway....
To my way of thinking, the reason there's so much contention on this entire subject is that there is no proof as one would normally expect it; what we'd expect from burning methane into a beaker filled with dynamite, vs how burning methane reacts in the atmosphere to cloud cover when the ocean is warmer during the day and the volcanos are errupting under intense blizzards in Spain while holding a giraffe, blah blah blah) Of couse, we all know no professional scientific organization would never be biased or go along with things other than science, things like politics or funding or a degree program or peer pressure or media coverage.
But as to here, "Water turns into steam at 212 F," turns into a discussion of if it's better to cite it as C rather than F, or adding in things like oh, what atmosphere is it, is it not pure or it is pure, is this calories, are we talking about joules, what's the ambiant temperature, what humdity level is it, what's the gravity.... So, let's turn a discussion on physics into one of chemistry into one of experiments in a lab versus in the real world, mix them all together, toss in 8 other subjects, and then not talk about the same thing. Ya think?
"1 calorie is needed per degree Kelvin of temperature change for 1 gram of liquid water." "Blue is better than indigo. Because 460 is a bigger positive number than 430 is."
Sln3412 05:40, 10 August 2006 (UTC) 299792458, dude.
After reading the section on computer models, I believe the "experts" need to consult a mathematician. Not the "experts" here, I mean the "experts" who made up these models. The data input into these models seems tenuous at best - the ability to predict next month's weather is daunting, these guys are positive about 100 years into the future - fat chance. Publish there data and methods - I understand some data is being held close to the chest ( this is the opposite of peer review I believe - tree ring data is what I am most familiar with ) )PS My father - in the early 1900s - remembers when kids flew kites in March. From his childhood to mine, we were still building snow forts in March. Today most Marchs are mud season. Which model predicts this? Do these models work backward in time - why was Greenland green in the 1400s? Global warming - as a trend for us to hyperventilate about - seems more and more like a hoax - in 1974 Time magazine was pushing global cooling ( same "experts" I suspect.) PSPS No mathematical model can possible be good enough - no computer is that fast. If I saw a model that was able to return a result in less than years of running I would check the programmers code. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 159.105.80.92 ( talk • contribs) 15:29, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
This page doesn't have a truly neutral point of view. It should use several different pieces of data from independent sources, not just from the same, bogus "hockey stick". -- ChevyFanatic 16:19, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
The only question we need to discuss is:
Contributors in good faith can disagree on how to implement NPOV, but I'd like to see some agreement from long-timers on the fact that the article should be neutral on all controversial matters. -- Uncle Ed 20:32, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
Wow...I see 'ol Willy and a couple others are still trying to manage this little page, lol. I see that everyone who has tried to make any changes that would (heaven forbid) not strengthen the "ANTHRO" side of GW is STILL being shut out, reverted etc. All I can say is...this page doesn't mean anything really...and is why I stopped trying to fight you & "them"...It doesn't sway anyone's or the general public's opinion, change government policy or any of that. It's just a personal hobby for some extremists. Hope your still enjoying it and how's the weather in antartica :) —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 158.147.53.196 ( talk • contribs) .
cut subsection
The potential effects of CO2 on climate become more significant as we look into the future. Estimated present day reserves of fossil fuels (mainly coal) should last for another few hundred years and will add far more CO2 to the atmosphere than has accumulated so far. Unless human technology or extreme conservation efforts reduces this, atmospher CO2 levels will increase within two centuries to levels at least two and possibly four or five times higher than those that existed before humans. Levels this high are comparable to those last seen tens of millions of years ago in warmer greenhouse worlds. This warming will cause environmental changes. As regional patterns of temperature and precipitation change, impacts on human populations will vary by season. Atmospher CO2 levels will remain high for 1000 of years or more, until the ocean absorbs the excess CO2.
I cut the preceding subsection, as it lacks sources and reads more like an argument for reducing CO2 emissions. Does it even belong here, or should it go to Kyoto Protocol or Emissions trading?
Anyway, we need more info about the relationship of air temperature and CO2 levels in the historical temperature record. Last month, I saw a graph illustrating the point the CO2 increases are caused by temperature increases. At least temp went up first, then CO2 went up; same for down. -- Uncle Ed 17:24, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
The same contributor restored the above section and followed it with this:
I agree that with the above statements that to the extent this information is correct and useful, it needs to be better referenced and presented. Dragons flight 20:24, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
Someone made a change that just made a particular sentence redundant. The changer changed "predict" to estimate, which I thought was fine, but then said that the models estimates assume that we are not going to curb emissions. The next sentence says that estimates are difficult because we do not know future emissions and climate variability. Thus, I too away the part that says "assumes that we will not curb emissions" since this is stated better in the next sentence... Sorry if I am redundant, I am new at this...
Brusegadi
04:40, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
I see what you mean, but I feel it is somehow redundant. Perhaps with better phrasing the assumption of the panel can be explecitly stated. I'll see if I come up with something. Brusegadi 21:51, 12 August 2006 (UTC)
Half the Norwegian Wikipedia article on global warming is a list of misconceptions about global warming, with discussion/refutations. The choice of misconceptions seems biased, but mentioning in the article that there are numerous common misconceptions, and listing and discussing them, seems like a good idea. As it is now, several issues that preoccupy many people are represented only on this discussion page instead of in an article. I suggest someone makes a separate article called "Common misconceptions about global warming" that lists and discusses claims that are unscientific, very improbable or poorly founded in science. It is rather obvious that misconceptions are abundant amongst laymen - and I guess laymen are the main target group for the Global warming article. Notice that pro-science advocates seem to forget that a huge number of people seem to hold an unrealistic and often scientifically unfounded sense of impending apocalypse, mainly due to sensationalist tabloid newspapers. This should be addressed, as should a lot of the refuted claims on this discussion page. On the other hand, a list of misconceptions - this is a too strong concept, perhaps? - may end up too black-and-white, showing a disregard for the subtleties that the article in its present form has. I'd welcome viewpoints on this. Narssarssuaq 12:04, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
From what I understand, 'misconceptions' refer to what some British have been calling "climate porn." This 'misconceptions' were not brought about by scientists but by media and politicians. Thus, it might make sense to deal with them in the page where we deal with the media and politics of global warming and not in the page where we deal with the science of global warming. Making a separate page may be good, but I feel that it would also be ok to treat them in a more politically leaning article. I feel that as long as we dont put it here, in the science part, it should be fine. Brusegadi 02:37, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
That sounds interesting, all of it. I don't know myself if any of this is anywhere near apolitical on its basic level. It's very difficult to take any large organization or group or subject and see exactly what is social, what is political, what is economic, what is professional, and what is something else (or a mix). So perhaps trying to make this subject anything else than what it is, is impossible. It looks fairly difficult already just in the current format. Sln3412 03:49, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
"The Wegman Report on Statistical Errors of Global Warming Studies" http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf
Should this be under "other" and not under scientific? Its energy commerce and it seems to be purely statistical... Just wondering. Brusegadi 19:49, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
Ok
Brusegadi
20:12, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
Statistics is a mathematics tool used by scientists, politicians and others. In this case it seems quite political - the use of statistics does not qualify it as science. Vsmith 01:50, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
Hello again, sorry for saying "purely statistical." Since stats have so many faces... I feel that the bottom line is that, becuase the source is highly political in nature, it should be placed under other. My experience with stats tell me that if you are not very familiar with the data you are working with, you may just mess something up. Perhaps one of the assumptions that is "obviously" met by the data turns out not to be met. My view may be discredited, since Mann has admitted some of the errors that were criticized. Yet, when reading it, I feel that I am getting only one side of the story. Skyemoor points to many examples of text that would never be in a real science source. So, I, again, suggest to try to keep it out. Brusegadi 02:58, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
I disagree here, there are assumptions that are VITAL to selecting one statistical procedure against another. And knowledge of the data is essential to knowing if such assumptions are met. What should be avoided is a political interest in a certain result. What can be damaging to a statistician is having a preconceived agenda. Knowledge of the data is rarely detrimental. And that is why the report is not scientific, it belongs under 'other' only because we do not have a 'political' section for external links. Bottomline is that the report was writeen by a statistician and not by a climate scientist. Brusegadi 02:04, 27 August 2006 (UTC)
How is an external link decided? If there is a site that is updated many times a day with global warming news is that a good external link to have? It provides something extra on top of what Wikipedia offers. Some of today's news, after it has been verified and quantified, will make it here as substantiated information. So a good external link site would offer news that has not yet been covered here? Yes or no? Webchat 00:24, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
This material would have a good home in the Global warming controversy article but not here. The main article already is long and is in danger of becoming unwieldy. The main article needs to stick to the science. Raymond Arritt 16:03, 22 August 2006 (UTC)
Just to be sure, if I want to edit the Spanish version of this article, is it ok for the references to be in English or do they have to be in Spanish? In general, can an article written in X language have references in Y language? I am trying to avoid getting in trouble :) I have seen that being done but I am not sure if it is right. Thanks a lot guys and sorry for the diversion. Brusegadi 23:00, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
I think the Wegman Report should have an article of its own. -- Uncle Ed 17:11, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
ridiculous, a published scientific paper is un-scientific, yet a group blog is scientific? 65.95.41.70 00:28, 27 August 2006 (UTC)
Just to interfere here, but a blog doesnt belong on Wikipedia: WP:EL. Yes? HawkerTyphoon 00:45, 27 August 2006 (UTC)
The following was posted in the article:
If you look at the reference provided it says that smog clearing has 'accelerated' global warming but it says nothing about it being a cause of global warming. Thus, with the source provided, I dont think it makes sense to place this under alternate theories. Brusegadi 04:21, 28 August 2006 (UTC)
I've been starting to cite using < ref > because it says that is in the todo section but the problem is something glitched, when I preview the cites start at 1 but when I actually save it they cites start at double however there are. So if you check the references section it doubles up does anyone have any idea how I can fix this. Reverting doens't seem to help. SirGrant 00:52, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
Please review the discussion on references styles for this article, now preserved in Archive 9 [3]. This has been a problem issue in the past. Vsmith 02:22, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
Ignore the above the problem got fixed I think it was just some sort of browser error. Regardless I was wondering what we should do about the citations, I would be happy to go about changing all the links to this format:
{{
cite web}}
: Unknown parameter |coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (
help)However I do abide my wikipedias rules and if the current ruling was to leave it as was I'll go back and undo my edits. Sorry about not going through the archives there is just so much stuff it's like a book to read of just talk pages. So if anyone has any oppinions on what I should do I would appriciate it. I would also like to note that I do think the < ref > system is better than having the links in brackets like [ www.whatever.com ] because I think by doing that firstly it is not asthetically pleasing and doesn't contain information about the source you are citing. However I will say it again I will follow the rules and if people decided that it should stay the way it was I'll revert it. Thanks SirGrant 19:38, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
I'm back :-) I'm still of the opinion that two-clicks-to-link is really really annoying... I'm with Vsmith on this William M. Connolley 19:44, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
Well, the same problem again. I just got my edition removed after adding a {{cite web}} reference; it was really annoying. Nevertheless, I must say I didn't read the discussion page before, the same error SirGrant made some months before. However, I really think links like "[1]" don't say very much... adding the quotation inside the article is even better than going to the reference webpage and looking for it. Doesn't a quotation like:
"Summary for policymakers". Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2001. Retrieved October 2006. The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate
{{
cite web}}
: Check date values in: |accessdate=
(
help); Unknown parameter |coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (
help); Unknown parameter |month=
ignored (
help)
say a lot more and help maintain the references in order? -- _N_e_g_r_u_l_i_o 04:27, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
I have just tried experimenting with using inline Harvard references just with Amstrup. Let me know if I should go on with this. (It is on the to do list). I personally have come to the conclusion I prefere footnotes but I won't reopen that old argument....--
NHSavage 22:37, 7 November 2006 (UTC). I kust reverted this. Either I am being stupid or the Harvard templates are not yet sophisticated enough. I can't get it to do (Amstrup et al, 2006) and link to the harvard citation. If this doesn't work there is no point in using it in IMHO.--
NHSavage
22:47, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
I was doing my weekly reading of realclimate, and I saw the Ritson links. Mainly:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/house06/RitsonWegmanRequests.pdf
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/house06/RitsonLetterWaxman.pdf
I feel that if we include the Wegman we should at least be entitled to: 1) Place the links above in the 'Other' external links part of the article, since they bring into question the credibility of the W report in a scientific manner. 2) We could simply remove the W report altogether for the reasons in 1. 3) we could make an article about the wegeman report as someone suggested above. The article would mention the controversy surrounding the report.
If my view is accepted, then I vote for either of the first two options. Also, if most prefer option three, we would have to mention the report in the main article (in order to provide a link) and remove it form the 'other' external links. Thanks and have a lovely day, Brusegadi 03:55, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
There is now an article on Wegman, the guy, and most of the stuff about the report is there. Perhaps we should place this there?? Brusegadi 22:03, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
I know the point of an article on "global warming" is largely to talk about the recent climate warming and how it might have large affects on human civilization, but isnt the article becoming political and non-sientific by totally omitting just what this warming means in terms of the history of the planet over geological time? Temperature and CO variation over millions of years is an order of magnitute greater then what is measureable since the industrial revolution.
Also the biomass section is not up to date it was just in the mainsteam news recently that there were studies showing biomass increasing with increased CO2 INDEPENDENT of other factors like soil and water. http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/articles/V9/N33/B3.jsp
—Preceding unsigned comment added by 64.69.112.122 ( talk • contribs)
I seem to remember hearing a while back that the theory of global warming was disproven. Several times I think. PowderedToastMan 08:04, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
NimNick writes: "You act the fool", "Global warming alarmism is a religion, not science", "Troll" &tc. By your condescending tone, you have lost any modicum of respect here and will be ignored. Skyemoor 21:10, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
see here. Count Iblis 13:23, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
Since we seem to be enjoying the absurd task of exchanging credentials in wikipedia, allow me to say that I am Emeritus Professor at -University of your choice.- I will not say my name, since they may stop funding my research. Besides, I promised my wife I was going to stop having pointless arguments in Wikipedia... On a more serious note, the funding argument is bogus. I wonder how much Exxon would be willing to pay a scientist, if the latter found strong, REAL, evidence against global warming. So far, the only thing EXXON has been able to fund are mere distractions, aimed at the general public, that would be read with abundant humor by the academic circles if it were not for the fact that what we have at stake is the well being of our planet! Yet, since I enjoy morbid humor, they make me laugh all the same.
Brusegadi
21:25, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
Before we get distracted onto the tedious funding arguements, perhaps we could return to a subtle point which I fear you all missed... what do you notice about Randall Cerveny, Oliver Frauenfeld, or Robert E. Davis? Yes, thats right, they are all red links. It doesn't bode well for their importance. So instead of tedious talk, how about someone who considers them of any importance (hello, septics!) writing a decent article about them, *including* what they think about GW, nicely sourced to published papers. Now *that* would be useful. BTW, thanks for mentioning SC - nice to know where you're getting all your ideas from William M. Connolley 22:43, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
There is new ice core data from the British Antarctic Survey, showing carbon dioxide levels as higher than at any point in 800,000 years. Does this constitute reliable enough information to replace the existing figures in this article? I'll leave that up to the experts on this page, but it seems to deserve consideration. 130.195.86.38 12:01, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
OK, having given the details of the original post here a thorough beating, can we now aknowledge its point? If there are in fact reliable ice core samples for the past 650,000 years, and CO2 levels are higher today than at any point since then, we have to ask at least two questions: 1. Have C02 levels been steadily increasing (on average) over the past 650,000 years? or 2. Is there a significant deviation in the trend at some point near the start of the industrial revolution? A third question, possibly, cuold be: Is there a correlation between human population increase and CO2 increase? These are relatively simple questions, and I would be surprised if the global scientific community had not already begun to investigate them, yet data of this nature seems to be very pervasive (or nobody agress). Or am I just not reading enough, or carefully enough? The proof is in the pudding. -Nick
See here. Count Iblis 19:01, 7 September 2006 (UTC)
1. "Global warming" is a fact - it's definitely warmer now than when it was colder (profound, no?) 2. The rate of current warming and the identity of the most significant climate forcings are contentious items in the debate. 3. Land use change and other activities guarantee some human influence on climate - the degree is contentious. 4. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams indicate rapid warming ongoing. 5. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams are composites gathered from less than 1% of the Earth's surface. 6. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams are subject to local influences. 7. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams have suffered significant urbanization with the closure of rural recording stations. 8. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams are adjusted for UHIE corruption - the degree and the methodology are contentious. 9. Near-surface temperature reading amalgams vary widely by region, with better financed and maintained regions showing little warming. 10. Radiosonde balloon measures test the well-mixed atmosphere. 11. Radiosonde balloon measures are significantly less subject to local influences and UHIE than near-surface temperature readings. 12. Radiosonde balloon measures do not indicate atmospheric warming in the 1,000mtr-10,000mtr height where enhanced greenhouse warming should theoretically be readily apparent by now. 13. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units test the well-mixed atmosphere. 14. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units provide near-global coverage. 15. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units are not subject to local influences or UHIE. 16. Satellite-mounted Microwave Sounding Units suggest a small tropospheric warming trend (about three-fourths of one degree (C) per century). 17. General Circulation Climate Models are programmed to show warming proportionate to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. 18. General Circulation Climate Models do exactly as they are programmed to do. 19. General Circulation Climate Models cannot yet be programmed with the complexity of the atmosphere. 20. General Circulation Climate Models have yet to demonstrate greater predictive power than a table of random numbers.
Arvin Sloane ( talk · contribs)
All a bit dull, and badly formatted to boot. If you're interested in eductating yourself, you want urban heat island and satellite temperature record William M. Connolley 08:40, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Specious I'd say. Jefffire 08:47, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Milloy as a source of scientific input?? "Sloane", you show all the signs of a political hack. You've shown that you are clearly not a scientist, and are attempting to further a political agenda (with typical extremist name-calling). We know a troll when we see one and it is not William Connelley who is the troll in this thread. Skyemoor 11:23, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Several of Milloy's contentions are simply wrong (e.g., "General Circulation Climate Models are programmed to show warming proportionate to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels"), several are red herrings (e.g., "General Circulation Climate Models do exactly as they are programmed to do" -- ALL computer programs do exactly as they are programmed to do!), and some of the rest are outdated. If you are going to write a new article or make significant changes then you should be more diligent in verifying your sources. Raymond Arritt 12:30, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
Where do you count 2 vs. 3? Besides, it will not be removed. Its too important. On another note, is there a wiki policy against being under the influence when editing? Brusegadi 15:18, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
How much money have you placed in global warming bets? You could be a rich man... Also, your problem probably has not to do with cookies, since you state that you are signed in when you first enter wiki, and it is only when you edit that you are logged out... Defently contact them Brusegadi 03:56, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
Michael Crichton doesn't think so, and from what i understand, he's actually a scientist, not just some left winger on the internet. Why does this article ignore his conclusions about "man made" warming?--— (Kepin) RING THE LIBERTY BELL 12:57, 8 September 2006 (UTC)
I think it is advisable to restrict our discussions to editing the article, not what celebrities think about the topic. -- TeaDrinker 07:54, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
Who defines "competent"? And which scientists get to weigh in and be counted as part of the "consensus"? Do physicists and astronomers get to have their say? If there's a list of individual scientists and thier qualifications, I'd love to see it. I'm just curious and would like to verify who this consensus really is. But I'm not going to to take something at face value just because someone says it really loud and pounds his fist. -- LoudMouth 17:43, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
Global Warming – An alternative Theory
Introduction
There can be little doubt that global warming is occurring. The current wisdom is that this is due to the Greenhouse effect of global emissions, hence the Kyoto agreement. However there is a simpler and potentially more worrying possibility.
Energy usage
Mankind has become a huge consumer of Energy. Well, physically speaking, this is not possible, because, except by nuclear power, Energy can neither be created nor destroyed. It is simply converted from one form to another – usually heat.
So when you are burning fossil fuels in your car, you are releasing energy stored in the fossil fuels as heat (and kinetic energy – movement, which also ultimately gets converted to heat). Where does this heat go? It would be tempting to think that it is radiated or released into space, but lets think about that. The temperature of space is close to absolute zero, and the rate of heat loss is proportion to the difference in temperature. Historically we have been in approximate equilibrium, which is to say that the heat coming in (from the sun) equals the heat going out (due to difference in temperature). We are not changing the size of the Earth, nor its mass, so any heat we add to the equation must result in a temperature rise until a new equilibrium is reached. So if we are generating say 1% of the sun’s heat, the global temperature must also rise by 1% (nearly 3 degrees Celsius) in order for us to successfully get rid of it into space as fast as we are generating it. That is regardless of any Greenhouse Gas effect (which only makes matters worse).
More bad news
This means that controlling Green House gases will not save us. What is more, it doesn’t matter what the energy source is, unless it is the sun itself (and not historical sun, such as in fossil fuels). Nuclear energy is just as bad as fossil fuels. Wind and Wave energy are just as bad too. The only safe energy in this regard is plant energy, so bio-diesel, plant oils, solar panels and wood burning are all OK, but that is about it. All of this energy has been provided by the sun in its recent history, BUT, of course, we must not reduce the total plant mass, so it must not just be a renewable, but a source that has been renewed. There is no way to cheat.
The good news
The good news is that this is not runaway global warming. If we mend our ways and use the right sources of energy (and that means more forests, albeit farmed and managed), the earth will eventually return to the old equilibrium, except for the effects of greenhouse gasses.
OOO - Own Opinions Only
Dave Mear.
Just a thought. Is this REALLY original?
I have seen this in a (factual) book by Isaac Asimov - that is, the idea that all forms of energy used by humans end up as heat, which must be radiated into space - so the more energy we generate, the hotter we'll get. Think of one possible energy source - solar energy stations in space, beaming the energy to receivers on earth. Now surely if the total energy we receive from the sun increases - shouldn't we get hotter, as the energy is converted to different forms and eventually becomes heat? And wouldn't this also apply to increases in energy conversion on earth - eg from nuclear sources, or fossil fuels? If it's true that "the amount of heat radiated away from an object is not proportional to its temperature " (I don't know, I'm not a physicist) then Asimov seems to be wrong in this case. Just thinking out loud! -- Exile 11:48, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
The connection to Asimov reminded me of the Dyson sphere. — Mac Davis] ( talk) ( Desk| Help me improve)
There seems to be unusually high vandalism. Perhaps it has to do with the debut of An Inconvenient truth in Australia? Anyhow, should we place an anti vandal tag?? Brusegadi 15:51, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
Global warming will effect everyone in the world.
I think there needs to be more recogninition that more than a "small minority" of scientist disagree on global warming. I think it is important from a credibility POV to not appear so biased in presenting a wiki and its important to remain objective and not emotional. Objectivity and a lack of emotion are hallmarks to great science. I should know, I am an engineer who graduated top of his class and have recently graduated from Oxford law school, not only that but my fiance is a PhD in astro physics at the university of Hawaii. We get pretty steamed when there is bad science out there and to spin science is wrong. I think it is wrong to discount the disenting voices in the global warming debate. I think it is always better to debate and disagree than to not debate at all. And when the wiki is saying only a "small minority of scientists disagree", that is really shutting down that important area of debate. Lets keep the wikis unbiased and factual. Its best for all parties involved.
I read here that there shouldn't be a space :) Count Iblis 17:47, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
The ° of course refers directly to the numeral, so should always be attached to it. The C is short for Celsius, so could be seperate, as if it were written in full, but I think would look a little lonely by itself. -- Michael Johnson 11:23, 15 September 2006 (UTC)
The vitriol with which the "true believers" in global warming defend their hypothesis is merely evidence that they are engaging in confirmation bias. -- The Outhouse Mouse 18:14, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
The global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century. -- Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), page 26.
We estimate that the sun contributed as much as 45–50% of the 1900–2000 global warming... -- Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900–2000 global surface warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05708, doi:10.1029/2005GL025539.
Even the IPCC estimates that there has been a warming influence from the Sun in their radiative forcing summary figure of about 0.25 Watts per meter squared. Adding this 0.25 Watts per meter squared value reduces the percent contribution of CO2 to about 26.5%.
-- What Fraction of Global Warming is Due to the Radiative Forcing of Increased Atmospheric Concentrations of CO2? Professor Roger Pielke Sr., Climate Science
Thus 0.6 °C x 26.5% = 0.16 °C warming from CO2 since the late 19th century.
The temperature effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 is logarithmic -- that is, the per unit effect constantly declines.
Doubling the human contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause somewhat less than 0.1 °C additional warming.
The average seasonal rise in global mean temperature for the period 1880-2004 has been 3.8 °C between January (12.0 °C) and July (15.8 °C) only to decline again. -- Global Surface Temperature Anomalies National Climatic Data Center
This annual warming is almost 20 times the total temperature increase possible from doubling the pre-Industrial Revolution level of atmospheric carbon dioxide and yet there is no sign of "runaway" water vapor-driven warming.
Of all the things humans should worry about, atmospheric CO2 isn't one of them. We are being told to look in the wrong direction. Why? — (Quoted from www.junkscience.com)
Arvin Sloane, 04:12, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
I have tried to insert a link to an author who discovered serious flaws in Oreskes essay on the so called "consensus".
Those in the game know that there no such thing but the interesting thing about Oreskes essay is that it is used by the Alarmist side in order to try to kill the debate. I also therefore question the very silly headline describing the researchers opposing the mainstream IPCC view: "List of scientists opposing global warming consensus" Well, since there are credible scientists opposing IPCC then THERE IS NO CONSENSUS how can they then oppose something that does not exist? It is like writing a "nice murderer" or something.
Yes I have a science degree and my main subject is aerosols.
IPCC and the biased text is political.
I am worried that the other parts of science are beginning to shake their heads at climate science. It seems that "evidence" are very easy to come by. The same reasoning is simply not possible in other research fields.
On the other hand they are not politically saturated in the same way. It is beacuse of this, totally impossible to end an article waithout stating that "it is very likely that the observed/measured/calculated/modelled changes are due to anthropogenic influences". To say with the same degree of uncertainty " It is very likely that the observed/measured/cluclated/modeled changes are within the range of normal variations" is simply suicide.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/19/scientists.bush.ap/
The Alarmist church will then crucify you and you can kiss your fundings good-bye. Oh, well science will survive. But humanity will be sent along the wrong track for a long time before it awakens. And next time "sience" cries "the wolf is coming" surely with a higher degree of certainty, nobody will be listening.
83.177.104.192 19:31, 18 September 2006 (UTC)Jan Lindström
I agree with "the mouse" that the article is biased. It has been so for at least the past 3 years.
The article clearly favors the alarmist POV of supporters of the anthrogpenic (human-caused) global warming theory (AGW). The viewpoint of AGW supporters is that all the science is on their side, but several prominont statisticians and scientists disagree. The article should not place undue weight on the pro-AGW side. -- Uncle Ed 20:55, 2 October 2006 (UTC)
Maybe include stuff from the new NASA survey that is talked about at the BBC website recently -- 217.42.3.37 15:34, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
Rambling essay? moved to User talk:Beroccaboy
Vsmith 13:57, 16 September 2006 (UTC)
I reverted the link added because besides not belonging here, it is misleading. We should try to improve the article and stop misleading the reader. WMC has shown much evidence that scientific concensus on global cooling during the 70s was non-existent. Scientists made it clear that they were not sure and that they did not have the tools to be sure, etc. Thus, comparing global warming with global cooling is unfair to the reader. Brusegadi 16:18, 17 September 2006 (UTC)
--- Begin cut container
By far the biggest contributor to the natural greenhouse effect is atmospheric water vapour, which accounts for 98% of the effect seen. citation needed Again here there is clear evidence of a feedback mechanism at work, with greater evapo-transpiration rates and greater atmospheric water holding capacity. citation needed Some models of climate change miss out the water vapour effect, but although this helps simplify the maths, citation needed it leaves the validity of the model in question. citation needed The nay-sayers quote this repeatedly, attempting the discredit the climate models [7], and disprove the anthropogenic origin of the current trends, but it can clearly be demonstrated that human activities are contributing both directly and indirectly to the increased loading of this overwhelmingly important contributor to climate change. [8]
--- End cut continer -- Rednblu 21:05, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
What natural causes are there? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.52.175.91 ( talk • contribs)
This seems interesting. Is it addressed in the article? How long will it take someone here to vilify him & "discredit" him? -- LoudMouth 13:37, 21 September 2006 (UTC)
I am not sure if this is the right place to present this, but perhaps it would be a good idea to present the facts surrounding the "controversy" over Global Warming. I myself am quite convinced of Global warming, but to present the anti-warming arguments together with the pro-warming arguments might serve to enlighten those who are uncertain. I realize this is a political debate more than it is a scientific debate, but perhaps that will be evidenced by the realities at hand. Just my 2 cents. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 24.184.52.69 ( talk • contribs) .
See Global warming controversy Skyemoor 10:05, 22 September 2006 (UTC)
I think we need a separate article on government responses to global warming, which could cover some of the political pheonomena around global warming.-- NYCJosh 15:02, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
I'm new to Wiki editing and have little idea of what I am doing. I'm sure that if I have erred further editing will correct it. Anyone who is able to provide assistance or suggestions is welcome to contact me Rks1.
I have been researching global warming studies and was very surprised to find fundamental data problems and problems with scientific methodologies, often rendering the studies of no scientific value imho. Since the research is not published, I guess that any reference to it will be removed from Wiki. I do point out however that my research is very easily verified.
Simply because a subject is important and of benefit or potential harm to humanity, does not mean that evidence for it should be adjusted, especially where evidence to a contrary position will occur without the adjustment. Scientific methodologies adopted should be such that the research should be repeatable by the researcher and verifiable by others.
I added some extra alternatives to the section on alternative theories. I have citations for much of it but don't know the best way to add all that in.
Since the issue of scientific methodologies is critical to the advancement of any science, and since I have discovered the flaws and found others who have also done so, I thought it might be appropriate to have a new page titled something like "Scientific Methodologies in Global Warming Studies". Is this reasonable? Is it reasonable to provide a citation to the study and then references to the data or other resource that suggests that the data or methodology is flawed, in the absence of a published article that does the same thing? What about the problem of criticising individuals by implication because of referring to their research in respect to a specific type of flaw in scientific method? And what of those that edit these pages that have published articles. Please do not take this as a statement that your article or paper is biased or flawed. Obviously it just applies to the papers I have thus far reviewed and yours could not possibly be amongst them.
So do I wait until my research is complete, attempt to get it published and then attempt to create the new page. This could be eighteen months or so and I am not confident of getting published because I have already come in for substantial criticism for finding the flaws. I must sound like an idiot but I have never worked in academia, only had a couple of minor things published and then all that was arranged by the co-authors who did work in Universities. I have almost no contact with others and was greatly surprised when approached to carry out some research in global warming. Even now I have no idea about the right way to do much of anything in relation to the research. I am directed to studies and asked to review the data, the adjustments made to the raw data and the validity of such adjustments etc. I'm just trying to muddle through. That is not to say I am not good at research or more specifically analysis of data and its uses.
As to the research I would have prefered I did not find more than what I thought I would be researching: "unintentional bias" due to the fervour that Global Warming generates. I did not think I would not find a single paper that does not rely on suspect data, or methods that sometimes even seem to amount to scientific fraud.
I'm not even sure this is how I ask these questions.
Later Addition - including some background Since I wrote this I have been reading other entries rather than skimming, which I did before. It seems that some qualification of qualifications :-) is required. I have a degree in Climatology from studying in the late 70s. My main interest has been and remains the causes of flips between glaciations and interglacial periods and the time such switches take, not global warming (it may not sound scientific but I like the imagery of the climate flipping - strange things amuse me). Whether it was true or not, never greatly interested me. What caused global warming held some interest but not a great deal because there have been warmer interglacial periods and probably warmer parts of this one. Now if there was evidence of global cooling and even a remote chance of the process being the start of a new glaciation that would have been another matter. Pity the cooling period in the 70s was just a little fluctuation (well, actually that is not right - if it did herald a return to Little Ice Age conditions that would have been very bad for humanity - so it might have been academically interesting but not something I would wish on the world just because I would like to study it).
I am perhaps much better qualified to review data and other research because that is what I basically did for more than 20 years although not in the field of climatology, undertaking field research, employing experts in various scientific fields as required, wading through often reems of competing expert opinion, distilling it all into plain English, and determining just what really happened in the events I was asked to consult on. Mostly they were engineering matters but I also undertook studies into incidents in diverse fields. I was well respected in my field and specialised in only the most complex of matters. I was challenged occasionally in my conclusions but this generally turned out to be a very expensive excersise in futility for the challenger. I liked to be extremely thorough and as unbiased as any human can be when they are paid by the representative of one or a limited number of parties involved in a matter.
I am researching studies on global warming and have been attempting to find a university that will allow me to continue this as research for a PhD in Climatology (so far without any luck at all basically because I am not rich, I am severely disabled, so need to do the dissertation in my own country where I have been offered funding, and there does not seem to be any post graduate programs that fit what I wish to do. I've been offered PhD studies in other fields but what is the point of another doctorate in a field in which I do not have a passion). Rks1 03:31, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
I can but wonder what the Wiki entry would be in 1961 for the make up of the earth's crust, and the alternative theory section mentioning continental drift either disparagingly or not at all.
If I can get an answer to the question of how best to put in all the citations I'll resubmit and see if it is left in.
Richard Rks1
I've expanded Rudimann's explanation of neolithic global warming, and separated out the effects of methane and carbon dioxide, as outlined in his Scientific American article. His argument is based on what he sees as anomalous behaviour in the current interglacial. As such the previous criticism (which was original research) didn't seem relevant (since Rudimann does not claim that we would be in an ice age without this effect) so I've commented it out for the moment. If no one objects I'll remove it at a later date. -- Michael C. Price talk 09:02, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
I haven't read the entire SCiAm thing, but I've read him elsewhere. But CO2 wasn't rising over the last 1ky - [10] - though it may have risen from earlier. However, let me re-iterate the point I made earlier - there needs to be balance here, to make i clear that this is a minority view William M. Connolley 12:21, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
I've added (again) that a reference that is being presented as a general rebuttal of Rudimann is only referring to his interpretation of the methane data and does not address his interpretation of the CO2 data. Please do not revert this without discussion. If there exists a more general critique then find the cite please. -- Michael C. Price talk 08:25, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, anyone remember the global bird flu epidemic killing millions. Or the biblical aids epidemic killing nearly all americans... this global warming has the same smell about it(largely insignificant as a result of technological innovation and market forces, causality not well understood, with any true short term effects turned into a self facilitating, self promoting end-of-world belief system). I actually feel sorry for the scientists doing research showing little or no changes to the environment. They don't get funding, publicity, awards, invites etc.
I guess it's every person to blame. People just like believing the extreme version of what they don't understand and creating hysteria. People also seem to like to punish themselves to absolve ourselves from guilt about having a reasonable standard of living in a world where most people are poor or some other reasons. Environmental evangalists often request that its not enough to quietly reduce your environmental impact. You must make a performance of any acts and clearly display and label any paraphanalia and join in the promotional nature typical of a belief system.
Even prof. suzuki says that the causes are unknown. Lets cast doubt on how to avoid global warming on wikipedia until the cause(s) are widely agreed.
Global Warming can be good for low heating bills though.
And great for Democrats! (they hope) LoudMouth 19:46, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
Just an interesting find that's been hitting the news lately. [11] A writer better than myself may wish to work this development into the current article. --AWF
I do not think that it is appropriate to discuss what global warming MAY do (NB: "Spread of Disease" section in the article). Rather, it would be more appropriate to discuss the scientific observations made along those lines -- to the extent such observations exist. -- The Outhouse Mouse 13:38, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
I wonder if it would be possible to have Messrs Connolley & Schulz develop a rule for what they believe appropriate links are so there will be no confusion over this issue. -- The Outhouse Mouse 19:11, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
Raul654 made the following comment when deleting one of my edits (NB: it was a link to the homepage of the US Senate Environment & Public Works Committee): "...the EPA is interested in the real facts and isn't funded by the gas indutstry, unlike half the enviromental committeee." I cite this as a prime example of his bias. -- The Outhouse Mouse 19:14, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
I'm not active with this article, but I just noticed the recent edit by Raul654, who removed the "citation needed" for the sentence "For a climate model to be accepted by the scientific community as being valid it must first be shown that it does a good job of simulating known climate variations, such as the difference between summer and winter, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or El Niño." with the edit summary "rm idiotic citation required - of course a simulation has to agree with real life data to be valid."
I disagree with this edit for two reasons. First, we shouldn't be making deductions that aren't obvious to everyone. If someone challenges a statement by adding the "fact" tag, it should be sourced. Second, and maybe more importantly, a model does not have to be able to capture variation on one time scale (like yearly) to be valid on another time scale (like decadal). For example, many of the most well-respected ecological models have one year time steps, even though they can be used to predict changes in quantities (like leaf area index) that change even more from season to season than they do from year to year. So the statement may be held true within the field of climate science, but if so a citation should be available. The statement isn't obviously true just from knowing about models and validity. -- Allen 06:58, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
This sentence doesn't seem to make sense. "The Earth's average near-surface atmospheric temperature rose by 6000 degrees yesterday 0.6 ± 0.2 °Celsius (1.1 ± 0.4 °Fahrenheit) in the 20th century." (second Paragraph, lead section) Harryboyles 14:00, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
"...Both land and open water are less reflective than ice, ... cycle."
It can't be a cycle if it will eventually end, because the ice is all going to melt, eventually.
So it's not a cycle :|
It doesn't matter whether someone is independently well-known. The AGW theory and everything else related to global warming is controversial. (In the US, the general public is split 50-50 on whether the AGW is true or not, for example.)
We include alternate views, not because they are TRUE but because they are "verifiable". Wikipedia must not take a position on whether AGW is good science or not. It should merely identify the advocates and critics of the POV.
Having identified WHO is for or against AGW and other GW aspects, we should also explain WHY these parties assert the POVs they assert. But we should not do the original research of trying to figure out what is true or false. If there is a dispute on an aspect or point, we should be NEUTRAL on that aspect or point.
I propose a thorough rewrite of the article,
to sort out which are the points universally agreed upon, and which are the disputed points. To begin with, all sides agree that surface-recorded temperatures rose from 1850 approximately 1 degree Fahrenheit, dropped half a degree from 1940 to 1970, and rose again. What is disputed is how accurate those reading are, as well as what proportion of this warming/cooling/warming is natural or man-made.
There are also models. I've heard various viewpoints on whether these represent falsifiable hypotheses. This needs fleshing out.
Then there are the various atmosphere layers. What does AGW theory say about surface, near-surface, 5 miles up, 10 miles up, etc.? Has AGW made any testable predictions (see Falsifiablity) about the temperature record at various heights in the atmosphere? If not, which groups or individuals maintain that AGW is still a valid hypothesis? If so, which groups or individuals have compared temps at various heights with theoretical predictions, and what are their conclusions?
North and South poles: What does AGW say about the polar ice cap at the North pole, glaciers in Greenland, and ice in Antarctica?
What is the role of land use? And what are the various ideas about the Urban Heat Island effect's influence on surface and near-surface temperature readings? Which groups or individuals say that the influence is negligible; easily correctible with a small number like 0.1 C degrees; or "contaminating" the surface record?
What about the hockey stick? (There used to be an article just about this graph and the controversy over this, but this has been suppressed.) M&M's claim that Mann's software makes even random inputs look hockeystick-shaped is missing (or hard to find). It should be included as an alternate view. It's not "undue weight" to do so.
And what is the relationship of the hockeystick to AGW? Which groups or individuals say that it is important evidence of AGW theory? Who dismisses its importance? Is there anyone who says that, if Mann's reconstruction is vindicated, this means AGW is confirmed but if not then AGW is not confirmed?
Wikipedia should not take sides on any aspect of the dispute over global warming. It should merely report what various groups and individuals claim, and (where possible) also summarize the reasons they give for their claims. Anything else violates Wikipedia:NPOV. -- Uncle Ed 14:10, 3 October 2006 (UTC)
The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"[1], though there is a sizable minority who disagree with this assessment. [and a brief explanation of the controversy here: why there is a diversity of opinion]
The increased amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are proportedly the primary causes of the human-induced component of warming.
Guys, I don't even take a stance on this issue, but removing the {{POV}} template is absolutely ridiculous. Someone (and in fact, several someones) happen to think that the article has a bias, and that needs to show at the top. This issue shouldn't even be up for discussion. Is your opinion of the article show fragile that it will be hurt because someone's claims that it's not a neutral point of view? I don't even care if you add all sides in, but the {{POV}} needs to stay. - Patstuart 18:26, 3 October 2006 (UTC)
To quote from Wikipedia:NPOV dispute:
Placing the {pov} tag means that the contents of the article are disputed and volatile. And if there's an edit war over whether the tag should be applied or not, the standard is that it remain. You should not revert the insertion of {{ pov}} more than once. That's the guideline, so please follow it. -- Uncle Ed 16:10, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
How s... is that? Look at this text: Outlaw ‘Climate Change denial’? The chilling effect on free speech. There's really people proposing to outlaw ‘climate change denial’. Man. -- 84.146.140.247 18:56, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
The amount of vandalism on this page seems to be a bit much... anyone for semi-protecting it? William M. Connolley 17:53, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
OK, I *have* semi-protected it; this is getting too tedious. I've done this somewhat tentatively, so if anyone objects, either reverse it (if you can) or argue it here... William M. Connolley 18:19, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
In case you need more voices, I also think that vandalism has been too much. Brusegadi 21:31, 4 October 2006 (UTC)
"The natives are restless". 'Nuff said. I tire of debating, and bid you all adieu.--------- Nufacion 17:44, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
Now back to the issue of semi-protect. Yesterday there was a rise in vandalism by anon users, so the semi-protect was justifiable. However one comment in this discussion does disturb me: ::: "I think we should thank Nuf for making such a convincing case for semi-pro :-) William M. Connolley 12:18, 5 October 2006 (UTC)". Semi-protection should not be used as a response to regular content disputes, since it may restrict some editors and not others. Ramsquire 18:04, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
I hope to say this only once: there is clearly no scientific nor general public consensus, as seen in these articles, http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17181 and http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=280, as to the reality of human-induced global warming, whether it is true or not. It is not a "small minority" of scientists, nor a group of industrial lackeys seeking to grow fat on the profits of ruining the planet for the next generation; as such, global warming is a legitimate scientific debate in which both sides deserve equal mention. Now, I do not care if you think the dissenting scientists are misguided and acting on false information, but bear in mind that as strongly as you believe in something, it can only make it YOUR unshakable belief, and you will never, ever be able to make those who disagree with you just disappear, merely because you know you are right. Now, regardless of what you think are proofs of global warming, human-induced or otherwise, there is a clear voice of dissent in this debate. There, I've said my part; the rest is up to the wikipedians to decide. Nufacion 12:05, 11 October 2006 (UTC)
-- Jayson Virissimo 02:28, 6 October 2006 (UTC)
This article needs to be re-structured in order to:
To put global warmimg in perspective we have to look at natural temperature variation:
In other words life on earth has survived significantly higher temperatures, the ice will be back and its consequences could be a threat to life on earth (WW 3), and climatology is so complex that scientific opinion has about-faced in the last 30 or so years.
From a scientific or at least relatively non-political view the important questions are:
The subject gets very political as soon as we ask the obvious next question: If the temperature is currently changing and we think the rate or expected size of change is undesirable, how much can we do about it?
Reasons why it gets political:
You will notice that politicians and officials (who dispense research grants) have a systematic bias towards research which supports interventionist policies.
Literature surveys like that by Oreskes only reflect the current distribution of research grants and should not be quoted here - or ever: a literature survey in 1500 AD would have supported the view that the Earth is flat.
Despite being a "feature article", the Global warming article falls into the following traps:
These failings make it urgent to revise the article.
At the same time it is necessary first to make sure that the result fits into the structure of Wikipedia, particularly in relation to the climate change article:
Philcha 22:56, 12 October 2006 (UTC)
In 1972 Emiliani warned of the possibility of "a runaway glaciation", unless human-caused global warming instead causes "a runaway deglaciation". By 1972 a large majority of a group of leading glacial-epoch experts at a conference agreed that "the natural end of our warm epoch is undoubtedly near"; .....
Philcha 11:58, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
I tried to claim there was uncertainty, I was shot down; I claimed there is a debate about whether there is uncertainty, I was yelled at; now I claim there is a dispute about whether there is a debate about the uncertainty, and I hope at least this I shall be granted. Nufacion 09:26, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
This article should include information about the Green Party in Germany's plans to close all of Germany's many nuclear plants and what effect this will have on global warming and Germany's compliance with the Kyoto Accord. For example how many fossil fueled power plants will have to be built to replace the lost power and how much CO2 will they emit.
Or do they plan to replace the power? If they have some novel solution to power plants it would be very interesting to all of us. The number of power plants they will shut down is a significant number. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 72.155.162.73 ( talk • contribs) 13 October 2006.
http://www.eon-netz.com/Ressources/downloads/EON_Netz_Windreport2005_eng.pdf
I haven't been active on this page for a while now (I occasionally revert vandalism, not much else) and I'm a bit disappointed it seems to have deteriorated. In fact, I'm pretty tempted to take it to WP:FAR. Reasons: the lead needs quite a bit of work to conform to WP:LEAD, using direct external links as refs makes it look extremely unprofessional ( meta:cite would be much better), several of the sub-sections under Predicted effects are stubby, as are those under Other related issues. Mikker (...) 18:49, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
User: 64.201.7.190 has added a merge tag to suggest merging climate change with global warming without any discussion. The merge suggestion also does not seem to be listed at Wikipedia:Proposed mergers. I don't think this suggestion has any merrit - one article deals with climate change in general, the other one with the ongoing episode of (mostly) GHG driven global warming. Unless there is significant support, I'm going to remove the tags. -- Stephan Schulz 22:04, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
If an anon can add that, why do we have to wait so much time to simply remove it??? To be a good American made capitalist I will say 'Just Do it' Brusegadi 01:03, 14 October 2006 (UTC)
Larry Sanger, as most everyone knows, is one of the original founders of Wikipedia. When asked about Wikipedia, he had this to say: "The latest articles don't represent a consensus view - they tend to become what the most persistent 'posters' say." Daily Mail article
This [18] is wrong (its in response to the Svensmark cloud chamber stuff, which doesn't demonstrate it anyway, but...) because the GCRs is just a subset of the solar variation (GCRs themselves don't change; they are modulated by solar variation, which is then supposed to change the clouds William M. Connolley 13:49, 20 October 2006 (UTC)
Can somebody please show the difference between the North atlantic drift and the Thermohaline circulation. It appears in the article as if they are the same thing, but I thought they were different. Also, i think more needs to be added to altrnate theories- it is still not completely proven that it is global warming. i think this should be mentioned -- Chickenfeed9 12:58, 26 October 2006 (UTC)