It is breakout from Hubbert Peak. See the discussion there.
Why does the first paragraph now substantially duplicate the first paragraph of the article energy development? Does this not indicate that teh two should be merged? -- Wtshymanski 16:21, 12 Apr 2005 (UTC)
The true costs of coal, natural gas, and other fossil fuels aren’t always obvious—but their impacts can be disastrous. Hidden Costs of Fossil Fuels 15 July 2008
Comments? zen master 01:35, 12 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Alternative energy is a misnomer as it links to renewable energy and this article deals with more. /Aquamarine
Tried to merge with relevent parts of energy development.
Zen master, do not revert to version earlier to merge with energy development. 1. The merge contains information not in the earlier version and now not available in energy development do not destroy that without discussion. 2. You complain of POV, point those out and we can discuss. 3. You also complain about "substandard edit quality", point out examples and we can discuss that also. /Aquamarine
Ok, now that i think about it those wikilinks i added to the Oil section are extremely redundant. But anyway, it doesn't make sense for the one "energy development" link for Oil to be to Hubbert Peak which is the theory that oil is/will start depleting eventually. Is there such a thing as conventional oil energy development? Perhaps technology that will allow an increased efficiency of conventional oil extraction? Though I suppose at some point if conventional oil becomes increasingly inefficient it's effectively thought of as non conventional oil (conventional = easy, non conventional = hard, energy needed for extraction wise)? zen master 00:40, 16 Dec 2004 (UTC)
In the section on transportation nothing is said about increasing energy efficiency by using (a) land transport instead of air (b) mass transit rather than personal transportation (where practicable, of course). Should this be mentioned here? Exile 13:46, 20 Jan 2005 (UTC)
Hay HAY! How about Electric transportation? Maglev, BEV's PHEV's as they consume (in and of themselves) 1/2 to 1/4 the energy ( as near as I can tell by my research in the area ). BEV's tipically consume about 0.5 (in an SUV size vehicle) down to 0.16kWh per mile (lighter weight). Where as the best case ICE, the Honda Insight at 70mpg is consuming 0.48kWh/mile and our 24mpg fleet average is equivilant to 1.46kWh/mile (assuming 33.6kWh per gallon of gas). Both figures are Pump/Outlet to pavement. Look to the AC_Propulsion_tzero 0.16 or 6 miles per kWh ideal effeciency with modern tech. You will have to dig arround the EVDL for many first hand figures from conversion drivers. start here .281, .100, .187, .600, .573, .566, Ranger .500, EV1 .200, Sparrow .150, -- D0li0 09:36, 13 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Do those figures account for the losses in generating and transmitting the electricity? I suspect not - If you do, the figure to use is closer to 10kwh/gallon - which makes the electric car about the same as a conventional one.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of electric transportation - but it doesn't solve the problem of how to generate the electricity in the 1st place. Whatever ultimate fuel source you use, the end result is to accelerate and decelerate a large lump of metal containing passengers. Only by increasing the occupancy rate of vehicles can significant savings be made - which means car-sharing, buses, trains and the old wartime question "is your journey really necessary?"
In effect, we will have to wait around for a while until a few other people want to make the same journey, rather than as at present driving off whenever we are ready.
Exile 14:06, 2 December 2005 (UTC)
The result of the discussion was to merge the article.
There is no need for this article, it sprang to life around the time of the il-fated attempt at a future energy development wikiproject. The scope of this article is not defined, there should be a "future" section inside Energy development? The word development implies working towards the future, so this article is unnecessarily redundant to Energy development. Any non redundant content should be moved to Energy development, Renewable energy, Hubbert peak, or articles on a specific source of energy such as wind power, or elsewhere as it makes sense. And then this article should be deleted, what do people think?
In response to this vote, I have started another vote here. Please vote there also. Ultramarine 00:08, 26 Feb 2005 (UTC)
Umm, can you move this vote poll to
Wikipedia:WikiProject Energy development? That way we only need to invite people to one place to help us out.
Tom Haws 06:02, Feb 26, 2005 (UTC)
I'm a bit confused as to who wrote what above, (Ultramarine, which do you advocate?) I definately think that an article called future energy development is silly. What is it that we are doing here at wikipedia? Gazing into crystal balls and predicting the future? I think not!
Let this discussion and article happen on the page called energy development. As somebody said above, development implies that the trends and ideas which are discussed here will take more prominence in the future. darkside2010 16:36, 12 Apr 2005 (UTC)
The following recent comment was moved to the appropriate section.
Electricity from dams has been cheaper than electricity from oil- and gas- burning turbines in many parts of the world for a long time. The United States has built dams on nearly every river that can sensibly be dammed; this resource is almost completely built out. In order to mitigate some of the unexpected evironmental damage, the U.S. is currently destroying dams faster than it is building them, but the rate of change is not large.
Like hydroelectric production, geothermal electric production has been cost-competitive, and in use, for years. Geothermal resources are not as widespread as hydraulic resources, nor typically near population centers, and so geothermal is not currently well built out.
Nuclear electric production was once thought to be the next oil. Walter Marshall famously declared that it would be "too cheap to meter". It now appears that nuclear electric production is about as expensive as hydrocarbon-based production. Nuclear production is as high as it is in France, the U.S., and Japan principally because it was viewed by legislators as bootstrapping a domestic industry and also as being less dependent on volatile foreign supplies, and thus a stabilizing influence on the domestic economies.
Wind power appears to be the next booming supply of energy. Proponents like to point out that it is the fastest growing source of energy (in late 2004), but this is relative to a small installed base. In small parts of the world with strong steady winds near population centers (i.e. Denmark), wind power is already price competitive, and is being built out. As wind turbine prices come down and the technology for siting them in difficult conditions (primarily offshore) matures, wind electric production is expected to grow to supply a significant portion of the world electric demand.
Solar electric (photovoltaic) production is not currently competitive with utility-scale generation from any of the above-mentioned sources. It is interesting primarily because it can be practically located close to the demand in many parts of the world. Because it costs so much to move electricity, production that is close to the demand is worth more than remote production. Even with this advantage, photovoltaic production is currently only competitive when supported by large subsidies or when its use allows a grid connection to be eliminated entirely.
There are many other alternative energy supplies under development. Tides, ocean currents and deep ocean thermal gradients have all been proposed as sources of energy to be tapped. A few significantly large tidal generators have been built, but they form navigation hazards and no forseeable buildout would be expected to supply significant amounts of power on a worldwide scale.
Large scale biomass programs, like midwest ethanol added to Californian gasoline, appear to consume more energy than they produce and are only cost effective for the producers due to favorable tax and subsidy policies.
Ultramarine, it looks like you added an image on future energy production that included a increasing line for oil production all the way through 2025? This image ignores peak oil? At the very least the estimates in this image are disputed? zen master T 16:50, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)
Can we at least include an image from what you call the "pessimists"? I don't think the article should present that image as fact, the article has to mention the controversy and competing predictions as it is super notable and super relevant. The article should also mention that most oil industry geologists and advocates (including Matthew Simmons) believe in peak oil theory and a peak within the next couple of years. zen master T 23:54, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)
Instead of arguing forever, why not put up both an optimistic and a pessimistic projection? There is a pessimistic image at Hubbert peak that could be used. pstudier 01:52, 2005 Apr 24 (UTC)
Zen-master, stop censoring facts you do not like. The nuclear industry do not make up these facts. Read what they write, give other references if you disagree. As of now, you are censoring without justification. Ultramarine 01:37, 29 Apr 2005 (UTC)
The info is already in the article, redundant and irrelevant facts are a form of POV, especially when presented in the manner they were. That stuff is completely unbalanced and Ultramarine has no intention of balancing it. "cost competitive" ignores cost of radioactive nuclear waste disposal. "remains toxic indefinitely" referring to chemical industry waste is obvious POV designed to mitigate fact that nuclear waste is radioactive for 10,000 years. The fact that Ultramarine is citing the same pro-nuclear industry website 5 times in one section is another strike against him. The claim that nuclear contributes less deaths than coal and hydro is entirely misleadling (even to the point of lying for obvious POV), it counts dam (failures) as purely a hydro energy source which is misleading, the other reasons damns are built include: irrigation, reservoirs, flood abatement. That pro nuclear industry website also conviniently ignores deaths to nuclear plant workers, but they suspiciously include coal/hydro plant worker deaths, why is that? That info is so obviously propaganda POV that to counter it would be like counting the 120,000+ people that died in the atomic blasts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in WWII against nuclear power (in which case nuclear power would lose). Coal may definitely be more harmful than nuclear, but the emphasis should be on increased efficiency, rather than merely arguing between coal/hydro and nuclear to maintain the status quo of energy production. If renewable energy sources have less deaths per energy unit then we shouldn't use coal or nuclear? Is 0 deaths per energy unit an option? zen master T 08:57, 29 Apr 2005 (UTC)
To the author - nice work. OmegaPaladin 11:46, 28 August 2005 (UTC)
I have some doubts as to whether this article belongs in the encyclopedia. See Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. This article seems to contain a great deal of speculation, mixed in with a limited number of facts, and as such is inappropriate for being largely extrapolation and speculation. Kelly Martin 22:02, Apr 29, 2005 (UTC)
I sense that Wikipedia is evolving from a being strickly a reference for finding our about current information (encyclopedia) to a true forum for discussing social issues(Futurology). This is especially relevant when those socital issues interface heavily with technologies, as they do in energy development. If the contributors desire to continue in the direction of scientific dialog (supported by references) about opportunities, then this article not only belongs, but could be the basis for changing how grass roots collaborative research is done.
The sections on "fossil" fuels could be balanced with some information on the abiogenic theory of oil production, in which case the oil fields are largely self-replenishing over time. I'm also uneasy about the statement that fossil fuels will eventually run out. This is too obvious to be mentioned, as any fuel source will eventually run out due to the law of entropy.
I also have read that oil may not be literally a "fossil fuel" but if there is more, deeper down, it will take a long time to come up where we can get it. We have used about half of what is easily recoverable, without noticing that more is appearing. Anyway, the fuel is not the scarce resource. The air is. Sunlight will last as long as the earth is inhabitable and fusion, and perhaps even fission, nuclear may last as long. -- David R. Ingham 06:08, 6 September 2005 (UTC)
As I see it, the greatest danger to human existence is in this century and, perhaps, the next.
I think refraining from overconsumption is the hardest part. -- David R. Ingham 15:36, 6 September 2005 (UTC)
The Bhopal disaster caused 15,000 or more immediate fatalities - Chernobyl caused 56 immediate fatalities with the probability of almost 4,000 deaths later on [2]. Simesa 16:50, 18 September 2005 (UTC)
"1989 - Colin Campbell predicts that this is the peak year."
(added) The reference you added is heresay (a person saying Campbell said it without quoting even the book title), I've found the book title and put that in instead. I can't confirm that those pages make that claim, so I've asked the University for a copy of the book to confirm and will put up a scan of the relevent part later.
Contrary to the statement of the person that deleted it, this graph has been extensively reviewed (see the link from its talk page) and I believe the consensus is that the extrapolation is reasonable, that there are no implications about the causes, that it has an NPOV, and is only borderline original. — James S. 01:44, 29 December 2005 (UTC)
This shouldn't even have come up, but here's a ref: [5] Simesa 16:13, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
Has neither produced energy in the past and it is not proposed in the speculative section that it will in future hence it is offtopic. I traced the section back to Ultramarine, who appeared to add it in response to a different user's adding the "Opec" predictions entry and the "Hubbert Peak" entry. Ultramarine, please agree to remove it, or we request arbitration.
This seems a waste of space, even on the talk page. David R. Ingham 05:19, 26 January 2006 (UTC)
On the other hand, it is a good example of how unrealistic people have been about energy, and therefore not out of place where it is. David R. Ingham 21:42, 26 February 2006 (UTC)
{ Nuclear proliferation is the spread of) nuclear technology, including nuclear power plants but especially
That's not what the main article says! Come off it. Nuclear proliferation specifically means nuclear weapons. Probably a nice try by some anti-nuke campaigner.
As it is much easier to construct a nuclear weapon out of plutonium than the Low-enriched uranium used in more common Thermal reactors,
Actually, it is impossible to construct a nuclear weapon from low-enrichment uranium (or from reactor grade plute for that matter, despite Carter's claimed test which was performed with an intermediate grade), and far, far easier to construct one with HEU than with any sort of plute. The problem is getting the HEU. So I guess the statement above is true, but it's hardly likely to increase the understanding of anyone reading it. Andrewa 14:38, 18 February 2006 (UTC)
This article has serious pro-"renewables" bias and is generally badly written.
Examples:
This article has many factual distortions and omissions which appear to result from a certain POV being advocated, most probably the traditional green/renewable POV. Take this piece about fusion energy.
Fusion power, if feasible, may not have the traditional drawbacks associated with fission power
but, despite fusion research having started in the 1950s, no commercial fusion reactor is expected before 2050 in the international ITER project. Many technical problems remain unsolved.
Proposed fusion reactors commonly use deuterium, an isotope of hydrogen, as fuel and in most current designs also lithium. Assuming a fusion energy output equal to the current global output and that [...] does not increase in the future, [...] the known current lithium reserves would last 3000 years [...] lithium from sea water would last 60 million years, and a more complicated fusion process using only deuterium from sea water would have fuel for 150 billion years.
This leaves us with an earth-occuring deuterium abundance enough to sustain all forseeable energy needs for many billions of years, which brings me to this...
The Sun, our current source of fusion power, is expected to last about 5 billion years, and provides many times the amount of energy currently available from all other known sources.
No matter how you look at it, fusion energy is comming, and it will become the main energy source in the future. How far away we can't say, but to simply abandon it would be utter foolishness. The impact of global warming was forcasted 50 years ago and today we still don't do anything about it. Such mammoth projects, both essential to our well being if not survival simply take a lot of time to accomplish and we must allow for that.
If we eventually move out into space fusion becomes even more essential because solar energy, the only other viable alternative, simply does not cut it.
In the short/medium term, we'll see a lot of other green sources like solar energy, hydroplants and wind. Not every region needs large fusion plants, many smaller communities can be happily provided with the more regular renewable sources. Diversity is the key, but it would be a mistake to put our energy supply at the mercy of the whims of cloudcover and wind. Albester 10:26, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
The article says:
This is mistaken. SPS can be built with helium-cycle turbines that don't use solar cells at all, & flown with existing launch systems, right now. SPS is more efficient than terrestrial solar, often touted as the "green solution"; trials of power conversion & transmission systems that SPS would use have achieved 65% efficiency, compared to 20% for terrestrial solar. (I rely on Heppenheimer's High Frontier and Pournelle's A Step Farther Out.) If USG would stop wasting billions on fusion research that is no nearer to producing power than it was 30 years ago, when funding began, & finance an SPS pilot project, we could stop sweating global warming--& start exploring the solar system without spending billions on rockets... The article further says:
To begin with, I don't see the mania for "fissionable materials". Neither do I believe the barriers are high; as Pournelle points out, boiling off rock to get at ore is the preferred method; this not rocket science. Trekphiler 07:28, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
I believe this article needs a lot of work and it is very important to have it very balanced. I previously removed some comments that were uninformed and negative to renewables. They will have a key part to play in future energy production, but balanced considerations related to fossil fuels and nuclear are also extremely important. Fossil fuels may even be able to play a continuing role with clean coal technology and sequestration of carbon dioxide produced by their combustion. I am tasked with increasing the section on bioenergy which is my personal area of knowlege but I suggest the article on the whole is getting very unweildy. -- Alex 10:31, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
I believe you are right. It also needs to retain an international focus. Countries like China and India are expanding their energy infrastructure often using coal power plants and old technology. Whether we like it or not I believe the article must take into consideration the wider picture as well as the idealistic one. It looks like nuclear will continue to play a role here in the UK. Nuclear power plants cannot, however be readily turned on and off to meet the significant daily fluctuations (ie. the morning fluctuation as everyone brews tea here!). I was in discussion with one of the largest electricity generation companies here in the UK recently who indicated their preference was for gas. Technologies such as anaerobic digestion (high efficiency systems producing biogas with 70% methane content) helping meet this for smaller localised generation. Their reasoning was that gas can be stored and used to generate electricity when the demand was present. Localised generation facilities (c2-6MW) are also more efficient from the electricity loss point of view. -- Alex 13:49, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
This list of blogs was remowed by User:Wmahan. Maybe some of these are useful.
I'm sorry but a link to a wiki is not a valid source. Said wiki seems to be talking about this document [6].
"While significant progress has been made in the sophistication of calorimeters since the review of this subject in 1989, the conclusions reached by the reviewers today are similar to those found in the 1989 review."
I don't see how this justifies saying that Cold Fusion has a new lease on life. I would say that it has the same hopeless lease as before. Christopher 15:18, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
I deleted this:
While true, I don't see the connection to the article.
BTW, the eco-zealots' position, recycling can save us, also violates the second law. Trekphiler & 02:07, 21 November 2006 (UTC)
The article says, "with an estimated break-even point of $35". $35 for how much? Trekphiler 02:07, 21 November 2006 (UTC)
I just started Comparison of automobile fuel technology. I could use some help. Mike92591 03:08, 6 March 2007 (UTC)
I removed the following from the nuclear power section:
because the link provided ( http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf06.htm) does not work. I wanted to check that because I assumed that this refers to unsafe 19th century mines, which would make a comparision unfair. DirkvdM 18:14, 9 April 2007 (UTC)
http://www.world-nuclear.org is used way to many times,and by no means neutral
in ther sites objectives we can read
“ | The World Nuclear Association is the global private-sector organization that seeks to promote the peaceful worldwide use of nuclear power as a sustainable energy resource for the coming centuries. | ” |
"The pessimistic, argue that due too the Hubbert peak theory, production will peak following a hubbert curve [10] ,no matter what the price of uranium will be(assuming identical technology)." The given source is a claim in a blog. John Busby, the person who makes the claim, give no source so it is unverifiable. Furthermore, it is just strange. Uranium is not as fossil fuels, it is present in most rock and the seawater and will not suddenly run out, only gradually and slowly become more expensive. Ultramarine 15:50, 29 May 2007 (UTC)
“ | Extending this argument to the uranium market, the timing of the uranium production peak for the Athabasca basin resources remains an estimate, but based on the exploration history summarized above and announced production plans, seems likely to occur near, and possibly before, 2020. Secondary supply "resources" will also follow a Hubbert curve, since this category represents the sum of numerous finite quantities of contained uranium. The final secondary supply curve will not likely be smooth, as annual supply will continue to be determined by business and political events, constrained by the market and in some cases by processing capacities. Still, it is important to recognize that secondary supply, too, will reach a point of decline.
Numerous uranium market analyses in recent years have highlighted a likely gap in uranium supply, usually within the next five years, and usually incorrectly. One possible reason for this difficulty is that two of the largest supply sources, the Athabasca basin and the secondary resources, have been on the upwards portion of their Hubbert curves while these forecasts were made. Even in the petroleum sector, accurately forecasting the production peak for any given producing region has proven difficult when production is still rising, although M. King Hubbert himself did get it right in 1956, when he forecast that the lower 48 US states oil production would peak about 1970 (actual was 1971 – Ref 2). The absence of accurate information about the quantities of secondary uranium supplies has clearly been another problem in forecasting. |
” |
“ | Security of uranium supply, in the sense of absolute scarcity of resources, is not a foreseeable constraint to reasonable further development of nuclear energy (Ref 5) | ” |
Ultramarine 17:22, 29 May 2007 (UTC)
Your claims regarding energy of pumping is unsourced. Furthermore, why should you pump? Have a look at this: [11] Ultramarine 17:27, 29 May 2007 (UTC)
Do others believe Wikipedia should ignore U.S. DOE / Oak Ridge National Labortory best-available topical information? The strong bias in his inconsistent application of edit rules is obvious in the History of several related Wikipedia articles. There may be room to improve style, but to delete important content is difficult to understand. This is not meant to be a subjective personal attack - Just a factual, well-documented observation. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Escientist ( talk • contribs) 18:49, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
My link went to the most-detailed source on the web about the DOE material, and it contains an embedded link to the ORNL.gov site, which has the high-level presentation outline. I was indeed selected by the U.S. DOE and ORNL as the person to prepare and present the popular international one-day workshop. I've been the most-popular speaker on the topic since the National Energy Expos three decades ago. I offer much more about the DOE/ORNL workshop material on my website than the government has published on theirs. My citation was accurate, true, and helpful to those who seek this government-sponsored material that you continuously attack with biased irrational impunity. Your biased undo attack History makes this point very clear for rational editors to clearly see. I invite and will appreciate other editor’s comments. Others have already undone some of your previous deletions of my generous, unbiased gifts to Wikipedia. When will you learn? Escientist ( talk) 19:37, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
What you falsely call personal attacks, I perceive as defense agaist your documented indiscriminate deletion of my generous contributions without even reading the detail. It may be you who needs to be sanctioned. Documentation of your past and future edits will surely determine the answer. Surely I am not the only one you do this to. I accept that my style needs improvement, but shouldn't a good editor be somewhat helful? Escientist ( talk) 19:59, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
This article contains an internal link to mini hydro, which does not exist. I changed it to micro hydro, which does exist, and a biased editor deleted my change. The list of irrational, biased Wikipedia editing grows every day. The source is clearly being attacked, not the content. Shall we file an WP:RFC as a group? Escientist ( talk) 19:50, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
As I've said many times before, you often throw out everything I enter, apparently just because it comes from me - a recognized subject matter expert who disagrees with much of your scientific misunderstand of the content. By your own admission, you don't take the time to read what you delete - you just indiscriminately block delete it with great self-assumed un-deserved authority, and no previous discussion of what you apparently don't even read or understand. I believe that this is more than worthy of a Request for Comment. If others agree, we should proceed. I would be surprised if I was the only one you are in conflict with. I invite and appreciate discussions about style, but not block deletion of everything I contribute. You refuse to show any common editorial courtesy. You block viewpoints that disagree with your's, for a motive that is not yet clear. You seem to have a very closed mind. What gives you the right to violate the Wikipedia Welcome credo? Escientist ( talk) 19:50, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
In Energy development I added an internal link to Ethanol fuel Anastrophe deleted it and added one to
That's OK - Fair enough - The message still gets through.
I essentially copied Anastrophe's main sources links into Future energy development and he irrationally deleted it (apparently because it came from me).
I've tried to negotiate with him offline with no success.
Does this make sense to anyone else? Am I the only one with this problem?
Others of you have reversed his deletions of my input. Escientist ( talk) 20:36, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
Thank you - Perhaps we can make some progress.
Before you block delete my generous work, please read the details, and let's discuss how "we" can make it better. I know my defense can seem offensive, but I want to share what the goverment has selected me to prepare. I admit I have a lot to learn about Wikipedia style, but I do know the science of what I write about, and the authoritative sources for it. Escientist ( talk) 20:36, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
Anyway that's my idea, tell me what you think... I won't be doing it myself, I'm currently busy with the Kardashev scale. THX-- Sparkygravity ( talk) 20:05, 30 January 2008 (UTC)
It is breakout from Hubbert Peak. See the discussion there.
Why does the first paragraph now substantially duplicate the first paragraph of the article energy development? Does this not indicate that teh two should be merged? -- Wtshymanski 16:21, 12 Apr 2005 (UTC)
The true costs of coal, natural gas, and other fossil fuels aren’t always obvious—but their impacts can be disastrous. Hidden Costs of Fossil Fuels 15 July 2008
Comments? zen master 01:35, 12 Dec 2004 (UTC)
Alternative energy is a misnomer as it links to renewable energy and this article deals with more. /Aquamarine
Tried to merge with relevent parts of energy development.
Zen master, do not revert to version earlier to merge with energy development. 1. The merge contains information not in the earlier version and now not available in energy development do not destroy that without discussion. 2. You complain of POV, point those out and we can discuss. 3. You also complain about "substandard edit quality", point out examples and we can discuss that also. /Aquamarine
Ok, now that i think about it those wikilinks i added to the Oil section are extremely redundant. But anyway, it doesn't make sense for the one "energy development" link for Oil to be to Hubbert Peak which is the theory that oil is/will start depleting eventually. Is there such a thing as conventional oil energy development? Perhaps technology that will allow an increased efficiency of conventional oil extraction? Though I suppose at some point if conventional oil becomes increasingly inefficient it's effectively thought of as non conventional oil (conventional = easy, non conventional = hard, energy needed for extraction wise)? zen master 00:40, 16 Dec 2004 (UTC)
In the section on transportation nothing is said about increasing energy efficiency by using (a) land transport instead of air (b) mass transit rather than personal transportation (where practicable, of course). Should this be mentioned here? Exile 13:46, 20 Jan 2005 (UTC)
Hay HAY! How about Electric transportation? Maglev, BEV's PHEV's as they consume (in and of themselves) 1/2 to 1/4 the energy ( as near as I can tell by my research in the area ). BEV's tipically consume about 0.5 (in an SUV size vehicle) down to 0.16kWh per mile (lighter weight). Where as the best case ICE, the Honda Insight at 70mpg is consuming 0.48kWh/mile and our 24mpg fleet average is equivilant to 1.46kWh/mile (assuming 33.6kWh per gallon of gas). Both figures are Pump/Outlet to pavement. Look to the AC_Propulsion_tzero 0.16 or 6 miles per kWh ideal effeciency with modern tech. You will have to dig arround the EVDL for many first hand figures from conversion drivers. start here .281, .100, .187, .600, .573, .566, Ranger .500, EV1 .200, Sparrow .150, -- D0li0 09:36, 13 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Do those figures account for the losses in generating and transmitting the electricity? I suspect not - If you do, the figure to use is closer to 10kwh/gallon - which makes the electric car about the same as a conventional one.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of electric transportation - but it doesn't solve the problem of how to generate the electricity in the 1st place. Whatever ultimate fuel source you use, the end result is to accelerate and decelerate a large lump of metal containing passengers. Only by increasing the occupancy rate of vehicles can significant savings be made - which means car-sharing, buses, trains and the old wartime question "is your journey really necessary?"
In effect, we will have to wait around for a while until a few other people want to make the same journey, rather than as at present driving off whenever we are ready.
Exile 14:06, 2 December 2005 (UTC)
The result of the discussion was to merge the article.
There is no need for this article, it sprang to life around the time of the il-fated attempt at a future energy development wikiproject. The scope of this article is not defined, there should be a "future" section inside Energy development? The word development implies working towards the future, so this article is unnecessarily redundant to Energy development. Any non redundant content should be moved to Energy development, Renewable energy, Hubbert peak, or articles on a specific source of energy such as wind power, or elsewhere as it makes sense. And then this article should be deleted, what do people think?
In response to this vote, I have started another vote here. Please vote there also. Ultramarine 00:08, 26 Feb 2005 (UTC)
Umm, can you move this vote poll to
Wikipedia:WikiProject Energy development? That way we only need to invite people to one place to help us out.
Tom Haws 06:02, Feb 26, 2005 (UTC)
I'm a bit confused as to who wrote what above, (Ultramarine, which do you advocate?) I definately think that an article called future energy development is silly. What is it that we are doing here at wikipedia? Gazing into crystal balls and predicting the future? I think not!
Let this discussion and article happen on the page called energy development. As somebody said above, development implies that the trends and ideas which are discussed here will take more prominence in the future. darkside2010 16:36, 12 Apr 2005 (UTC)
The following recent comment was moved to the appropriate section.
Electricity from dams has been cheaper than electricity from oil- and gas- burning turbines in many parts of the world for a long time. The United States has built dams on nearly every river that can sensibly be dammed; this resource is almost completely built out. In order to mitigate some of the unexpected evironmental damage, the U.S. is currently destroying dams faster than it is building them, but the rate of change is not large.
Like hydroelectric production, geothermal electric production has been cost-competitive, and in use, for years. Geothermal resources are not as widespread as hydraulic resources, nor typically near population centers, and so geothermal is not currently well built out.
Nuclear electric production was once thought to be the next oil. Walter Marshall famously declared that it would be "too cheap to meter". It now appears that nuclear electric production is about as expensive as hydrocarbon-based production. Nuclear production is as high as it is in France, the U.S., and Japan principally because it was viewed by legislators as bootstrapping a domestic industry and also as being less dependent on volatile foreign supplies, and thus a stabilizing influence on the domestic economies.
Wind power appears to be the next booming supply of energy. Proponents like to point out that it is the fastest growing source of energy (in late 2004), but this is relative to a small installed base. In small parts of the world with strong steady winds near population centers (i.e. Denmark), wind power is already price competitive, and is being built out. As wind turbine prices come down and the technology for siting them in difficult conditions (primarily offshore) matures, wind electric production is expected to grow to supply a significant portion of the world electric demand.
Solar electric (photovoltaic) production is not currently competitive with utility-scale generation from any of the above-mentioned sources. It is interesting primarily because it can be practically located close to the demand in many parts of the world. Because it costs so much to move electricity, production that is close to the demand is worth more than remote production. Even with this advantage, photovoltaic production is currently only competitive when supported by large subsidies or when its use allows a grid connection to be eliminated entirely.
There are many other alternative energy supplies under development. Tides, ocean currents and deep ocean thermal gradients have all been proposed as sources of energy to be tapped. A few significantly large tidal generators have been built, but they form navigation hazards and no forseeable buildout would be expected to supply significant amounts of power on a worldwide scale.
Large scale biomass programs, like midwest ethanol added to Californian gasoline, appear to consume more energy than they produce and are only cost effective for the producers due to favorable tax and subsidy policies.
Ultramarine, it looks like you added an image on future energy production that included a increasing line for oil production all the way through 2025? This image ignores peak oil? At the very least the estimates in this image are disputed? zen master T 16:50, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)
Can we at least include an image from what you call the "pessimists"? I don't think the article should present that image as fact, the article has to mention the controversy and competing predictions as it is super notable and super relevant. The article should also mention that most oil industry geologists and advocates (including Matthew Simmons) believe in peak oil theory and a peak within the next couple of years. zen master T 23:54, 23 Apr 2005 (UTC)
Instead of arguing forever, why not put up both an optimistic and a pessimistic projection? There is a pessimistic image at Hubbert peak that could be used. pstudier 01:52, 2005 Apr 24 (UTC)
Zen-master, stop censoring facts you do not like. The nuclear industry do not make up these facts. Read what they write, give other references if you disagree. As of now, you are censoring without justification. Ultramarine 01:37, 29 Apr 2005 (UTC)
The info is already in the article, redundant and irrelevant facts are a form of POV, especially when presented in the manner they were. That stuff is completely unbalanced and Ultramarine has no intention of balancing it. "cost competitive" ignores cost of radioactive nuclear waste disposal. "remains toxic indefinitely" referring to chemical industry waste is obvious POV designed to mitigate fact that nuclear waste is radioactive for 10,000 years. The fact that Ultramarine is citing the same pro-nuclear industry website 5 times in one section is another strike against him. The claim that nuclear contributes less deaths than coal and hydro is entirely misleadling (even to the point of lying for obvious POV), it counts dam (failures) as purely a hydro energy source which is misleading, the other reasons damns are built include: irrigation, reservoirs, flood abatement. That pro nuclear industry website also conviniently ignores deaths to nuclear plant workers, but they suspiciously include coal/hydro plant worker deaths, why is that? That info is so obviously propaganda POV that to counter it would be like counting the 120,000+ people that died in the atomic blasts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in WWII against nuclear power (in which case nuclear power would lose). Coal may definitely be more harmful than nuclear, but the emphasis should be on increased efficiency, rather than merely arguing between coal/hydro and nuclear to maintain the status quo of energy production. If renewable energy sources have less deaths per energy unit then we shouldn't use coal or nuclear? Is 0 deaths per energy unit an option? zen master T 08:57, 29 Apr 2005 (UTC)
To the author - nice work. OmegaPaladin 11:46, 28 August 2005 (UTC)
I have some doubts as to whether this article belongs in the encyclopedia. See Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. This article seems to contain a great deal of speculation, mixed in with a limited number of facts, and as such is inappropriate for being largely extrapolation and speculation. Kelly Martin 22:02, Apr 29, 2005 (UTC)
I sense that Wikipedia is evolving from a being strickly a reference for finding our about current information (encyclopedia) to a true forum for discussing social issues(Futurology). This is especially relevant when those socital issues interface heavily with technologies, as they do in energy development. If the contributors desire to continue in the direction of scientific dialog (supported by references) about opportunities, then this article not only belongs, but could be the basis for changing how grass roots collaborative research is done.
The sections on "fossil" fuels could be balanced with some information on the abiogenic theory of oil production, in which case the oil fields are largely self-replenishing over time. I'm also uneasy about the statement that fossil fuels will eventually run out. This is too obvious to be mentioned, as any fuel source will eventually run out due to the law of entropy.
I also have read that oil may not be literally a "fossil fuel" but if there is more, deeper down, it will take a long time to come up where we can get it. We have used about half of what is easily recoverable, without noticing that more is appearing. Anyway, the fuel is not the scarce resource. The air is. Sunlight will last as long as the earth is inhabitable and fusion, and perhaps even fission, nuclear may last as long. -- David R. Ingham 06:08, 6 September 2005 (UTC)
As I see it, the greatest danger to human existence is in this century and, perhaps, the next.
I think refraining from overconsumption is the hardest part. -- David R. Ingham 15:36, 6 September 2005 (UTC)
The Bhopal disaster caused 15,000 or more immediate fatalities - Chernobyl caused 56 immediate fatalities with the probability of almost 4,000 deaths later on [2]. Simesa 16:50, 18 September 2005 (UTC)
"1989 - Colin Campbell predicts that this is the peak year."
(added) The reference you added is heresay (a person saying Campbell said it without quoting even the book title), I've found the book title and put that in instead. I can't confirm that those pages make that claim, so I've asked the University for a copy of the book to confirm and will put up a scan of the relevent part later.
Contrary to the statement of the person that deleted it, this graph has been extensively reviewed (see the link from its talk page) and I believe the consensus is that the extrapolation is reasonable, that there are no implications about the causes, that it has an NPOV, and is only borderline original. — James S. 01:44, 29 December 2005 (UTC)
This shouldn't even have come up, but here's a ref: [5] Simesa 16:13, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
Has neither produced energy in the past and it is not proposed in the speculative section that it will in future hence it is offtopic. I traced the section back to Ultramarine, who appeared to add it in response to a different user's adding the "Opec" predictions entry and the "Hubbert Peak" entry. Ultramarine, please agree to remove it, or we request arbitration.
This seems a waste of space, even on the talk page. David R. Ingham 05:19, 26 January 2006 (UTC)
On the other hand, it is a good example of how unrealistic people have been about energy, and therefore not out of place where it is. David R. Ingham 21:42, 26 February 2006 (UTC)
{ Nuclear proliferation is the spread of) nuclear technology, including nuclear power plants but especially
That's not what the main article says! Come off it. Nuclear proliferation specifically means nuclear weapons. Probably a nice try by some anti-nuke campaigner.
As it is much easier to construct a nuclear weapon out of plutonium than the Low-enriched uranium used in more common Thermal reactors,
Actually, it is impossible to construct a nuclear weapon from low-enrichment uranium (or from reactor grade plute for that matter, despite Carter's claimed test which was performed with an intermediate grade), and far, far easier to construct one with HEU than with any sort of plute. The problem is getting the HEU. So I guess the statement above is true, but it's hardly likely to increase the understanding of anyone reading it. Andrewa 14:38, 18 February 2006 (UTC)
This article has serious pro-"renewables" bias and is generally badly written.
Examples:
This article has many factual distortions and omissions which appear to result from a certain POV being advocated, most probably the traditional green/renewable POV. Take this piece about fusion energy.
Fusion power, if feasible, may not have the traditional drawbacks associated with fission power
but, despite fusion research having started in the 1950s, no commercial fusion reactor is expected before 2050 in the international ITER project. Many technical problems remain unsolved.
Proposed fusion reactors commonly use deuterium, an isotope of hydrogen, as fuel and in most current designs also lithium. Assuming a fusion energy output equal to the current global output and that [...] does not increase in the future, [...] the known current lithium reserves would last 3000 years [...] lithium from sea water would last 60 million years, and a more complicated fusion process using only deuterium from sea water would have fuel for 150 billion years.
This leaves us with an earth-occuring deuterium abundance enough to sustain all forseeable energy needs for many billions of years, which brings me to this...
The Sun, our current source of fusion power, is expected to last about 5 billion years, and provides many times the amount of energy currently available from all other known sources.
No matter how you look at it, fusion energy is comming, and it will become the main energy source in the future. How far away we can't say, but to simply abandon it would be utter foolishness. The impact of global warming was forcasted 50 years ago and today we still don't do anything about it. Such mammoth projects, both essential to our well being if not survival simply take a lot of time to accomplish and we must allow for that.
If we eventually move out into space fusion becomes even more essential because solar energy, the only other viable alternative, simply does not cut it.
In the short/medium term, we'll see a lot of other green sources like solar energy, hydroplants and wind. Not every region needs large fusion plants, many smaller communities can be happily provided with the more regular renewable sources. Diversity is the key, but it would be a mistake to put our energy supply at the mercy of the whims of cloudcover and wind. Albester 10:26, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
The article says:
This is mistaken. SPS can be built with helium-cycle turbines that don't use solar cells at all, & flown with existing launch systems, right now. SPS is more efficient than terrestrial solar, often touted as the "green solution"; trials of power conversion & transmission systems that SPS would use have achieved 65% efficiency, compared to 20% for terrestrial solar. (I rely on Heppenheimer's High Frontier and Pournelle's A Step Farther Out.) If USG would stop wasting billions on fusion research that is no nearer to producing power than it was 30 years ago, when funding began, & finance an SPS pilot project, we could stop sweating global warming--& start exploring the solar system without spending billions on rockets... The article further says:
To begin with, I don't see the mania for "fissionable materials". Neither do I believe the barriers are high; as Pournelle points out, boiling off rock to get at ore is the preferred method; this not rocket science. Trekphiler 07:28, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
I believe this article needs a lot of work and it is very important to have it very balanced. I previously removed some comments that were uninformed and negative to renewables. They will have a key part to play in future energy production, but balanced considerations related to fossil fuels and nuclear are also extremely important. Fossil fuels may even be able to play a continuing role with clean coal technology and sequestration of carbon dioxide produced by their combustion. I am tasked with increasing the section on bioenergy which is my personal area of knowlege but I suggest the article on the whole is getting very unweildy. -- Alex 10:31, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
I believe you are right. It also needs to retain an international focus. Countries like China and India are expanding their energy infrastructure often using coal power plants and old technology. Whether we like it or not I believe the article must take into consideration the wider picture as well as the idealistic one. It looks like nuclear will continue to play a role here in the UK. Nuclear power plants cannot, however be readily turned on and off to meet the significant daily fluctuations (ie. the morning fluctuation as everyone brews tea here!). I was in discussion with one of the largest electricity generation companies here in the UK recently who indicated their preference was for gas. Technologies such as anaerobic digestion (high efficiency systems producing biogas with 70% methane content) helping meet this for smaller localised generation. Their reasoning was that gas can be stored and used to generate electricity when the demand was present. Localised generation facilities (c2-6MW) are also more efficient from the electricity loss point of view. -- Alex 13:49, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
This list of blogs was remowed by User:Wmahan. Maybe some of these are useful.
I'm sorry but a link to a wiki is not a valid source. Said wiki seems to be talking about this document [6].
"While significant progress has been made in the sophistication of calorimeters since the review of this subject in 1989, the conclusions reached by the reviewers today are similar to those found in the 1989 review."
I don't see how this justifies saying that Cold Fusion has a new lease on life. I would say that it has the same hopeless lease as before. Christopher 15:18, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
I deleted this:
While true, I don't see the connection to the article.
BTW, the eco-zealots' position, recycling can save us, also violates the second law. Trekphiler & 02:07, 21 November 2006 (UTC)
The article says, "with an estimated break-even point of $35". $35 for how much? Trekphiler 02:07, 21 November 2006 (UTC)
I just started Comparison of automobile fuel technology. I could use some help. Mike92591 03:08, 6 March 2007 (UTC)
I removed the following from the nuclear power section:
because the link provided ( http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf06.htm) does not work. I wanted to check that because I assumed that this refers to unsafe 19th century mines, which would make a comparision unfair. DirkvdM 18:14, 9 April 2007 (UTC)
http://www.world-nuclear.org is used way to many times,and by no means neutral
in ther sites objectives we can read
“ | The World Nuclear Association is the global private-sector organization that seeks to promote the peaceful worldwide use of nuclear power as a sustainable energy resource for the coming centuries. | ” |
"The pessimistic, argue that due too the Hubbert peak theory, production will peak following a hubbert curve [10] ,no matter what the price of uranium will be(assuming identical technology)." The given source is a claim in a blog. John Busby, the person who makes the claim, give no source so it is unverifiable. Furthermore, it is just strange. Uranium is not as fossil fuels, it is present in most rock and the seawater and will not suddenly run out, only gradually and slowly become more expensive. Ultramarine 15:50, 29 May 2007 (UTC)
“ | Extending this argument to the uranium market, the timing of the uranium production peak for the Athabasca basin resources remains an estimate, but based on the exploration history summarized above and announced production plans, seems likely to occur near, and possibly before, 2020. Secondary supply "resources" will also follow a Hubbert curve, since this category represents the sum of numerous finite quantities of contained uranium. The final secondary supply curve will not likely be smooth, as annual supply will continue to be determined by business and political events, constrained by the market and in some cases by processing capacities. Still, it is important to recognize that secondary supply, too, will reach a point of decline.
Numerous uranium market analyses in recent years have highlighted a likely gap in uranium supply, usually within the next five years, and usually incorrectly. One possible reason for this difficulty is that two of the largest supply sources, the Athabasca basin and the secondary resources, have been on the upwards portion of their Hubbert curves while these forecasts were made. Even in the petroleum sector, accurately forecasting the production peak for any given producing region has proven difficult when production is still rising, although M. King Hubbert himself did get it right in 1956, when he forecast that the lower 48 US states oil production would peak about 1970 (actual was 1971 – Ref 2). The absence of accurate information about the quantities of secondary uranium supplies has clearly been another problem in forecasting. |
” |
“ | Security of uranium supply, in the sense of absolute scarcity of resources, is not a foreseeable constraint to reasonable further development of nuclear energy (Ref 5) | ” |
Ultramarine 17:22, 29 May 2007 (UTC)
Your claims regarding energy of pumping is unsourced. Furthermore, why should you pump? Have a look at this: [11] Ultramarine 17:27, 29 May 2007 (UTC)
Do others believe Wikipedia should ignore U.S. DOE / Oak Ridge National Labortory best-available topical information? The strong bias in his inconsistent application of edit rules is obvious in the History of several related Wikipedia articles. There may be room to improve style, but to delete important content is difficult to understand. This is not meant to be a subjective personal attack - Just a factual, well-documented observation. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Escientist ( talk • contribs) 18:49, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
My link went to the most-detailed source on the web about the DOE material, and it contains an embedded link to the ORNL.gov site, which has the high-level presentation outline. I was indeed selected by the U.S. DOE and ORNL as the person to prepare and present the popular international one-day workshop. I've been the most-popular speaker on the topic since the National Energy Expos three decades ago. I offer much more about the DOE/ORNL workshop material on my website than the government has published on theirs. My citation was accurate, true, and helpful to those who seek this government-sponsored material that you continuously attack with biased irrational impunity. Your biased undo attack History makes this point very clear for rational editors to clearly see. I invite and will appreciate other editor’s comments. Others have already undone some of your previous deletions of my generous, unbiased gifts to Wikipedia. When will you learn? Escientist ( talk) 19:37, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
What you falsely call personal attacks, I perceive as defense agaist your documented indiscriminate deletion of my generous contributions without even reading the detail. It may be you who needs to be sanctioned. Documentation of your past and future edits will surely determine the answer. Surely I am not the only one you do this to. I accept that my style needs improvement, but shouldn't a good editor be somewhat helful? Escientist ( talk) 19:59, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
This article contains an internal link to mini hydro, which does not exist. I changed it to micro hydro, which does exist, and a biased editor deleted my change. The list of irrational, biased Wikipedia editing grows every day. The source is clearly being attacked, not the content. Shall we file an WP:RFC as a group? Escientist ( talk) 19:50, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
As I've said many times before, you often throw out everything I enter, apparently just because it comes from me - a recognized subject matter expert who disagrees with much of your scientific misunderstand of the content. By your own admission, you don't take the time to read what you delete - you just indiscriminately block delete it with great self-assumed un-deserved authority, and no previous discussion of what you apparently don't even read or understand. I believe that this is more than worthy of a Request for Comment. If others agree, we should proceed. I would be surprised if I was the only one you are in conflict with. I invite and appreciate discussions about style, but not block deletion of everything I contribute. You refuse to show any common editorial courtesy. You block viewpoints that disagree with your's, for a motive that is not yet clear. You seem to have a very closed mind. What gives you the right to violate the Wikipedia Welcome credo? Escientist ( talk) 19:50, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
In Energy development I added an internal link to Ethanol fuel Anastrophe deleted it and added one to
That's OK - Fair enough - The message still gets through.
I essentially copied Anastrophe's main sources links into Future energy development and he irrationally deleted it (apparently because it came from me).
I've tried to negotiate with him offline with no success.
Does this make sense to anyone else? Am I the only one with this problem?
Others of you have reversed his deletions of my input. Escientist ( talk) 20:36, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
Thank you - Perhaps we can make some progress.
Before you block delete my generous work, please read the details, and let's discuss how "we" can make it better. I know my defense can seem offensive, but I want to share what the goverment has selected me to prepare. I admit I have a lot to learn about Wikipedia style, but I do know the science of what I write about, and the authoritative sources for it. Escientist ( talk) 20:36, 15 January 2008 (UTC)
Anyway that's my idea, tell me what you think... I won't be doing it myself, I'm currently busy with the Kardashev scale. THX-- Sparkygravity ( talk) 20:05, 30 January 2008 (UTC)