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Per capita output is determined by: output per unit of labor input (labor productivity), hours worked (intensity), the percentage of the working age population actually working (participation rate) and the proportion of the working-age population to the total population (demography). "The rate of change of GDP/population is the sum of the rates of change of these four variables plus their cross products."[4]
I would not say :"determined by" as many readers will think the following is a causal statement rather is "arithmetically the product of" or "can be decomposed into"
Increases in labor productivity (the ratio of the value of output to labor input) have historically been the most important source of real per capita economic growth.[5][6][7][8][9] "In a famous estimate, MIT Professor Robert Solow concluded that technological progress has accounted for 80 percent of the long-term rise in U.S. per capita income, with increased investment in capital explaining only the remaining 20 percent."[10]
This should say "in the USA." or "in OECD countries" as there are many exceptions (e.g. the discovery of oil in Kuwait).
- It says "80 percent of the long-term rise in U.S. per capita income,". Phmoreno ( talk) 02:50, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
(Note: There are various measures of productivity. The term used here applies to a broad measure of productivity. By contrast, Total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures the change in total output relative to the change capital and labor inputs. Many of the cited references use TFP.) Increases in productivity lower the real cost of goods. Over the 20th century the real price of many goods fell by over 90%.[11]
It seems confusing to the average reader to talk about the "real" price of goods falling 90 percent, why not refer to the "cost per hour of labor"--use the wage (or some unit of equivalent labor) as the numeraire.
- Increasing productivity is not just through saving labor. Productivity can also be increased by saving energy, materials and capital and over time these savings have been significant. Electrification fundamentally restructured the economy of the early 20th century U.S. in ways many economists have failed to appreciate. Electrification and modern power plants dramatically lowered the amount of coal needed to product a kilowatt of electricity and the capital cost of producing power. Energy saving techniques were also employed in numerous other industries. Phmoreno ( talk) 02:50, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
Increases in productivity are the major factor responsible for per capita economic growth – this has been especially evident since the mid-19th century. Most of the economic growth in the 20th century was due to reduced inputs of labor, materials, energy, and land per unit of economic output (less input per widget). The balance of growth has come from using more inputs overall because of the growth in output (more widgets or alternately more value added), including new kinds of goods and services (innovations).[17]
This could usefully specify "growth in per capita GDP in the 20th century..." as of course population of the uSA has expanded enormously and hence total GDP is affected by the scale of population.
Mass production of the 1920s created overproduction, which was arguably one of several causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s.[25] Following the Great Depression, economic growth resumed, aided in part by increased demand for existing goods and services, such as automobiles, telephones, radios, electricity and household appliances. New goods and services included television, air conditioning and commercial aviation (after 1950), creating enough new demand to stabilize the work week.[26] The building of highway infrastructures also contributed to post World War II growth, as did capital investments in manufacturing and chemical industries.[27] The post World War II economy also benefited from the discovery of vast amounts of oil around the world, particularly in the Middle East. By John W. Kendrick’s estimate, three-quarters of increase in U.S. per capita GDP from 1889 to 1957 was due to increased productivity.[9]
Earlier the article nicely pointed out that most "growth" theory and data is about "potential" output so why is there a passage on the Great Depression which was about a deviation of actual from potential output? Just not relevant.
- The part about overproduction and the Great Depression can be deleted or moved to a new section. There is an important point to make in that the balance of labor in the U.S. shifted from shortage to surplus after 1910, the same time period as the introduction of widespread electrification and mass production. This shift in labor was recognized by some economists but not all appreciated the causes. [1] Beaudreau somewhat understood what happened. [2] I think Jerome understood it too. Phmoreno ( talk) 03:32, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
Economic growth in the United States slowed down after 1973.[28] In contrast growth in Asia has been strong since then, starting with Japan and spreading to Korea, China, the Indian subcontinent and other parts of Asia. In 1957 South Korea had a lower per capita GDP than Ghana,[29] and by 2008 it was 17 times as high as Ghana's.[30] The Japanese economic growth has slackened considerably since the late 1980s.
The use of 1973 may be roughly accurate for the USA but that date ("since then") has nothing to do with growth in the rest of Asia. Rapid economic growth started much earlier in Japan, started in Korea in 1962 whereas growth did not take off in China until 1977 or 1978 and when growth took off in India is in hot dispute but no one dates it to the 1970s (my estimates are in the early 1990s) (I have an article on the timing of growth accelerations and decelerations Kar, et al 2013 called "Looking for a break")
Industrialization creates a demographic transition in which birth rates decline and the average age of the population increases.
I would be hesitant to say "industrialization creates a demographic transition" as it is neither necessary (many countries now have low fertility at very low income) or sufficient (at least "high income" as many Gulf States have high per capita income and high fertility). Something the "The Industrial Revolution was accompanied by a demographic transition" would be more accurate as a specific historical experience.
Political institutions, property rights, and rule of law[edit] See also: Great Divergence § Property rights, Great Divergence § Efficiency of markets and state intervention, and Great Divergence § State prohibition of new technology “As institutions influence behavior and incentives in real life, they forge the success or failure of nations.”[42]
In economics and economic history, the transition to capitalism from earlier economic systems was enabled by the adoption of government policies that facilitated commerce and gave individuals more personal and economic freedom. These included new laws favorable to the establishment of business, including contract law and laws providing for the protection of private property, and the abolishment of anti-usury laws,[43][44] When property rights are less certain, transaction costs can increase, hindering economic development. Enforcement of contractual rights is necessary for economic development because it determines the rate and direction of investments. When the rule of law is absent or weak, the enforcement of property rights depends on threats of violence, which causes bias against new firms because they can not demonstrate reliability to their customers.[45]
In many poor and developing countries much land and housing is held outside the formal or legal property ownership registration system. Much unregistered property is held in informal form through various property associations and other arrangements. Reasons for extra-legal ownership include excessive bureaucratic red tape in buying property and building. In some countries it can take over 200 steps and up to 14 years to build on government land. Other causes of extra-legal property are failures to notarize transaction documents or having documents notarized but failing to have them recorded with the official agency.[46]
Not having clear legal title to property limits its potential to be used as collateral to secure loans, depriving many poor countries one of their most important potential sources of capital. Unregistered businesses and lack of accepted accounting methods are other factors that limit potential capital.[46]
Businesses and individuals participating in unreported business activity and owners of unregistered property face costs such as bribes and pay-offs that offset much of any taxes avoided.[46]
I am not sure how Wikipedia works exactly but this seems better placed in a separate article on "Growth and Institutions" or some such. So far the article has been descriptive whereas this is now ranging into hotly contested views about causation. At the very least it should come down into the section on "theories" as the way in which growth is often discussed is "proximate determinants" and "causal theories" separately.
Supply and demand[edit] In the supply and demand model, technology that improves productivity creates a shift in the supply curve, meaning that the amount of supply available occurs at lower costs, which increases the quantity demanded.
The development of new products and services increases both total supply and demand.
This is not well placed in an article about economic growth as this is a generic phenomena.
Robert Solow[54] and Trevor Swan[55] developed what eventually became the main model used in growth economics in the 1950s.
This makes it sound as if they did it together, which I don't think is true.
The big push[edit] One popular theory in the 1940s was the Big Push, which suggested that countries needed to jump from one stage of development to another through a virtuous cycle, in which large investments in infrastructure and education coupled with private investments would move the economy to a more productive stage, breaking free from economic paradigms appropriate to a lower productivity stage.[60] The idea was revived and formulated rigorously, in the late 1980s by Kevin Murphy, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny.[61]
The ordering of the theories is odd, Big Push came before Solow-Swan and one should mention Harrod Domar as the intermediate step between Big Push and Solow-Swan as it was the knife edged path of Harrod Domar with fixed capital to output ratios that led to the Solow adoption of Cobb Douglas with capital and labor as substitutes.
Institutions and growth[edit] According to Acemoğlu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson, the positive correlation between high income and cold climate is a by-product of history. Europeans adopted very different colonization policies in different colonies, with different associated institutions. In places where these colonizers faced high mortality rates (e.g., due to the presence of tropical diseases), they could not settle permanently, and they were thus more likely to establish extractive institutions, which persisted after independence; in places where they could settle permanently (e.g. those with temperate climates), they established institutions with this objective in mind and modeled them after those in their European homelands. In these 'neo-Europes' better institutions in turn produced better development outcomes. Thus, although other economists focus on the identity or type of legal system of the colonizers to explain institutions, these authors look at the environmental conditions in the colonies to explain institutions. For instance, former colonies have inherited corrupt governments and geo-political boundaries (set by the colonizers) that are not properly placed regarding the geographical locations of different ethnic groups, creating internal disputes and conflicts that hinder development. In another example, societies that emerged in colonies without solid native populations established better property rights and incentives for long-term investment than those where native populations were large.[64]
a) to talk about "institutions" and not discuss Douglas North first is just not right. He was the pioneer of institutions.
b) the "cold climate" is odd placed here and not particularly essential to the AJR argument.
Energy consumption and growth[edit] For more details on Energy efficiency, see Productivity improving technologies (historical) § Energy efficiency. Energy economic theories hold that rates of energy consumption and energy efficiency are linked causally to economic growth. A fixed relationship between historical rates of global energy consumption and the historical accumulation of global economic wealth has been observed.[70] Increases in energy efficiency were a portion of the increase in Total factor productivity.[9] Some of the most technologically important innovations in history involved increases in energy efficiency. These include the great improvements in efficiency of conversion of heat to work, the reuse of heat, the reduction in friction and the transmission of power, especially through electrification.[71][72] "Electricity consumption and economic growth are strongly correlated".[73] "Per capita electric consumption correlates almost perfectly with economic development."[74]
This is certainly misplaced under "theories of economic growth" and as the near perfect correlation of per capita gdp and electricity use could be just a demand phenomena and the result of a a budget expansion path.
Over long periods of time, even small rates of growth, such as a 2% annual increase, have large effects. For example, the United Kingdom experienced a 1.97% average annual increase in its inflation-adjusted GDP between 1830 and 2008.[75] In 1830, the GDP was 41,373 million pounds. It grew to 1,330,088 million pounds by 2008. A growth rate that averaged 1.97% over 178 years resulted in a 32-fold increase in GDP by 2008.
worth mentioning this is not per capita.
- Again, you are not appreciating the changes bbrought about by electrification. Electrification was the most fundamentally transformative technology of the 20th century. Electricity enabled modern production methods and saved enormous amounts of energy. The amount of light from a given quantity of fuel with electricity is over 1000 times that of a kerosene lamp. Electric motors revolutionized factories, businesses and households. People who aren't engineers have no idea how many millions of horsepower supplied by electric motors power the economy, manufacturing products, pumping water to households and businesses, transporting oil and gas through pipelines, etc. Phmoreno ( talk) 03:17, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
Happiness has been shown to increase with a higher GDP per capita, at least up to a level of $15,000 per person.[76]
Both Stevenson and Wolfers and Deaton's research suggest there is no upper limit of this type so at the very least this is contested. Plus this is between average and country level GDP per capita, not at all personal and personal income.
Economic growth has the indirect potential to alleviate poverty, as a result of a simultaneous increase in employment opportunities and increased labor productivity.[77]
The connection between economic growth and poverty is much more direct that this as "per capita income" is the summary statistic of an income distribution. An distributionally neutral shift in the distribution of income reduces poverty by definition as mostly "modern" poverty measures are the (distribution intensity weighted) integral of the income distribution up to a poverty line (I would guess the Wikipedia article on poverty says something like this).
A study by researchers at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) of 24 countries that experienced growth found that in 18 cases, poverty was alleviated.[77]
The evidence of Aart Kraay on growth spells and poverty reduction is much more general and much better.
However, employment is no guarantee of escaping poverty; the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that as many as 40% of workers are poor, not earning enough to keep their families above the $2 a day poverty line.[77]
This is a complete non sequitur as "economic growth" and "employment" are very different things.
For instance, in India most of the chronically poor are wage earners in formal employment, because their jobs are insecure and low paid and offer no chance to accumulate wealth to avoid risks; other countries found bigger benefits from focusing more on productivity improvement than on low-skilled work.[77]
I think this means to say "in informal" employment as the statement about "formal" is just wildly wrong. In "informal" employment it is not clear a "job" is the best description as much of this is self-employment in which people work on their own account.
Increases in employment without increases in productivity lead to a rise in the number of working poor, which is why some experts are now promoting the creation of "quality" and not "quantity" in labor market policies.[77] This approach does highlight how higher productivity has helped reduce poverty in East Asia, but the negative impact is beginning to show.[77] In Vietnam, for example, employment growth has slowed while productivity growth has continued.[77] Furthermore, productivity increases do not always lead to increased wages, as can be seen in the United States, where the gap between productivity and wages has been rising since the 1980s.[77] The ODI study showed that other sectors were just as important in reducing unemployment, as manufacturing.[77] The services sector is most effective at translating productivity growth into employment growth. Agriculture provides a safety net for jobs and an economic buffer when other sectors are struggling.[77] This study suggests a more nuanced understanding of economic growth and quality of life and poverty alleviation.
This discussion doesn't belong in an article about economic growth per se as it is veering into other issues like employment. When I use wikipedia I like the focus.
The "income equality" section is a completely different topic (and one whose "neutrality" is rightly questioned)
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 13:09, 7 June 2016 (UTC)
References
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I object to this deletion of the dispute tags by reversion without discussion here. EllenCT ( talk) 01:37, 20 June 2016 (UTC)
@ Phmoreno: and @ Volunteer Marek: please share your thoughts on [1] in re "inequality has increased more than we previously thought...." and similarly as per [2] and [https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/finance/why-people-are-angry/]. EllenCT ( talk) 06:42, 18 June 2016 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
Which of these two revisions is better supported by reliable sources? EllenCT ( talk) 17:49, 20 June 2016 (UTC)
In addition to the misrepresenting sources in the June 20 version is the fact that the Inequality section interrupts the determinants section. The determinants are from Bjork (1999) where he explains the calculation of growth according to national income accounting and inequality is not a factor in the calculation. Because of the fundamental importance of the explanation of what determines economic growth the full, uninterrupted explanation should follow the lede section. I have yet to see a reference that says income inequality is significant enough to merit more than a couple of paragraphs in additional causes section. In fact EllenCT's own sources specifically state that the effect of income inequality on growth is "relatively small". Phmoreno ( talk) 16:47, 21 June 2016 (UTC)
The article also needs to discuss the role of aging population on growth. Japanese stagnation and aging population have been discussed in the literature, but the other developed countries are facing a "demographic waterfall". Oil consumption-Scroll down for demographic charts Phmoreno ( talk) 17:11, 21 June 2016 (UTC)
Dr. Robertson has reviewed growth&oldid=727588253 this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
{original}
Before industrialization, technological progress resulted in an increase in population, which was kept in check by food supply and other resources, which acted to limit per capita income, a condition known as the Malthusian trap.[13][14] The rapid economic growth that occurred during the Industrial Revolution was remarkable because it was in excess of population growth, providing an escape from the Malthusian trap.[15] Countries that industrialized eventually saw their population growth slow down, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition.
{suggested correction} Before industrialization per capita income growth rates were much lower than in the modern era. A widely held view is that this is because technological progress resulted in an increase in population, which was kept in check by food supply and other resources, which acted to limit per capita income, a condition known as the Malthusian trap.[13][14] The rapid economic growth that occurred during the Industrial Revolution was remarkable because it was in excess of population growth, providing an escape from the Malthusian trap.[15] Countries that industrialized eventually saw their population growth slow down, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. Nevertheless the relevance of the Malthusian equilibrium as an explanation for stagnation is debated in the literature [Mokyr and Voth 2010].
Mokyr, Joel, and Hans-Joachim Voth. "Understanding growth in Europe, 1700-1870: theory and evidence." in Stephen Broadberry, Kevin H. O'Rourke (eds) The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe 1 (2010): 7-42.
Comment It would be useful to add a section on: The East Asian Miracle; China's economic Miracle;The Lewis Model and urban rural migration
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 20:36, 1 July 2016 (UTC)
Dr. Breton has reviewed growth&oldid=727588253 this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
I have edited the article in Wikipedia, improving or correcting the explanations and grammar and adding a few citations. You can see my changes on 6-28-16. I thought this would be more efficient than submitting all these changes as comments.
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 15:20, 11 July 2016 (UTC)
http://www.ifn.se/wfiles/wp/wp858.pdf
there is a “significant negative correlation” between the size of government and economic
growth. Specifically, “an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate.” This suggests that if spending increases, the government expenditure
multiplier will become more negative over time...
The outer quote is from [6]
The inner quote is from a journal article: Andreas Bergh and Magnus Henrekson, The Journal of Economic Surveys (2011) Phmoreno ( talk) 01:06, 14 July 2016 (UTC)
These are some sources I dug up last year which may be of some use. I did not see them when I glanced through the References section so they may bring something new to the table. The first book in particular has a very good literature review as its first chapter. I have linked the WorldCat listings for the books and I believe I still have PDFs of all of the material if anyone wants extracts.
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link)Jbh Talk 16:48, 22 June 2016 (UTC)
Dr. Crespo Cuaresma has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The discussion is (necessarily) superficial, given the breadth of the subject. The differentiation between "Determinants of per capita GDP growth" and "Other factors affecting growth" is extremely confusing and misleading, in particular due to the fact that capital is included under "other factors".
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 22:42, 24 September 2016 (UTC)
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Dr. Tarp has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
This is a sensible overview. My own assessment of the literature is that the evidence for the negative growth impact of inequality is far more convincing than often assumed.
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 11:33, 22 December 2016 (UTC)
IP number 109.97.73.128, not signed in as a regular Wikipedian, just deleted the following two plots from this article:
I'm reverting those deletions, because those plots seem to belong here. I think they are both quite interesting and communicate very effectively information that is relevant to this article.
Anyone who thinks those plots should be deleted should first initiate a discussion here on why those plots should NOT be part of this article. DavidMCEddy ( talk) 19:24, 25 December 2016 (UTC)
This article is chock full of OR, UNDUE, and SYNTH that does little to convey mainstream thinking about this topic. We should begin by paring all the off-center theories and viewpoints stated in WP's voice. SPECIFICO talk 21:57, 15 February 2018 (UTC)
Theories belong after causes, which is the section Other factors affecting growth. The models use these or they are considered exogenous. Causes are well covered in the literature. I know people were awarded Nobel prizes for models, but that does not make them particularly useful at explaining or predicting anything, in part because of the exogenous factors. One critic said for models to be useful they have to incorporate a minimum number of factors, but that makes them less accurate. Also, most factors are not quantifiable, such as capitalism, national intelligence and new products. There are several criticisms of mathematizing economics as taking a wrong turn. Phmoreno ( talk) 13:46, 27 December 2018 (UTC)
The long standing arrangement was to have "Growth theories and models" as section #4, but suddenly on December 26 you decided to put them at the end of the page, after someone else had moved the section. If you want to keep them after the cause, it's fine. But then, in order to be consistent, you should bring theories as section #4. — Preceding unsigned comment added by VDB 1999 ( talk • contribs) 19:05, 28 December 2018 (UTC)
Doesn't innovation cause increases in productivity, and not the other way around? I don't see why this article puts productivity on a pedestal and only mentions innovation in passing when productivity is strictly dependent on its causes. Nobody ever invents productivity increases, they invent goods, services, and methods which cause productivity to increase. It's like if an article on health explained that increased health is because of lengthening lifespans. 73.222.1.26 ( talk) 02:47, 2 January 2019 (UTC)
Wiki Friends, new comer is here. I would appreciate your advices.
I recently read this article about Economic growth. Main part of the article is about the growth models provided by the fore-running great economists which I really enjoyed reading. Before the elaboration of the models, the article provides brief history of the worldwide economic development. I was amazed about the statement that the “Four Tigers” are Japan, China, Singapore and South Korea. And a few days later it was revised to China, Singapore, South Korea and Indian subcontinent, and then, the current edition as excerpted in following paragraph.
Economic growth in the United States slowed down after 1973.[33] In contrast growth in Asia has been strong since then, starting with Japan and spreading to Four Asian Tigers, China, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Asia Pacific.[34][35] In 1957 South Korea had a lower per capita GDP than Ghana,[36] and by 2008 it was 17 times as high as Ghana's.[37] The Japanese economic growth has slackened considerably since the late 1980s.
It is well known that the “Four Tigers” are Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea. This is not a strict academic issue, rather a loosely used term to describe the history of the economic development. Back to 1970’s, Singapore and Hong Kong were successful in changing themselves as regional financial and management centers and Taiwan and S. Korea were developing “manufacturing” to grow the export to earn and build foreign exchange. The article makes a lot of sense to describe the history of the worldwide economic growth track. It is not that I don’t admire China’s great achievement in rapid economic growth in recent 20 years, but back to 1973, the strides have not yet begun.
Also the reference number 33 & 34 are totally irrelevant. I am unable to trace what is the original and suggest putting in the reference of Olivier Blanchard’s Macroeconomics, page 236, 6th edition, which states what Four Tigers are. Blanchard has been teaching in Harvard and MIT and worked for government and organizations, including World Bank, IMF and OCED.
I would appreciate any input. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Raymond TM Lee ( talk • contribs) 08:16, 8 May 2020 (UTC)
Are the numbers in this article PPP or just nominal adjusted for inflation without adjusting for cost of living?
I read, "Real GDP is measured in 2008 dollars" in [6]:
Am I to assume it's PPP? I also cannot find the source in that source: It says, "World Development Report 2010, Table 1", but I cannot find that reference. I found something that claimed to be that, but I could not find the numbers in that report that appear in this table.
Thanks, DavidMCEddy ( talk) 14:41, 8 November 2021 (UTC)
This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between 28 August 2018 and 22 December 2018. Further details are available
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Above undated message substituted from Template:Dashboard.wikiedu.org assignment by PrimeBOT ( talk) 20:04, 16 January 2022 (UTC)
The impact of berg wind on human, economy and environment 41.114.96.196 ( talk) 21:29, 4 February 2022 (UTC)
@ Trappist the monk: Why do you replace a use of {{Cite Q with a poor incomplete {{Cite book citation?
Are you familiar with Template:Cite Q?
Are you aware that the link to the Wikidata entry for that book includes a link to the Wikipedia article on that book as well as substantial additional information on the book including a link to an electronic copy of it available for check out anywhere in the world from the Internet Archive?
The book is by an economist Robert J. Gordon, who is different from an attorney named Robert J. Gordon, Wikidata Q16224376.
AND any additions or corrections to a citation in Wikidata are instantly available to every reference to that Wikidata item. If, for example, a new edition of that book becomes available, the connection can be made in Wikidata and it will become immediately available to all references to that Wikidata item.
??? Thanks, DavidMCEddy ( talk) 01:04, 7 April 2022 (UTC)
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is not ready for primetime.![]() | This is an archive of past discussions. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
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Dr. Pritchett has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
Per capita output is determined by: output per unit of labor input (labor productivity), hours worked (intensity), the percentage of the working age population actually working (participation rate) and the proportion of the working-age population to the total population (demography). "The rate of change of GDP/population is the sum of the rates of change of these four variables plus their cross products."[4]
I would not say :"determined by" as many readers will think the following is a causal statement rather is "arithmetically the product of" or "can be decomposed into"
Increases in labor productivity (the ratio of the value of output to labor input) have historically been the most important source of real per capita economic growth.[5][6][7][8][9] "In a famous estimate, MIT Professor Robert Solow concluded that technological progress has accounted for 80 percent of the long-term rise in U.S. per capita income, with increased investment in capital explaining only the remaining 20 percent."[10]
This should say "in the USA." or "in OECD countries" as there are many exceptions (e.g. the discovery of oil in Kuwait).
- It says "80 percent of the long-term rise in U.S. per capita income,". Phmoreno ( talk) 02:50, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
(Note: There are various measures of productivity. The term used here applies to a broad measure of productivity. By contrast, Total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures the change in total output relative to the change capital and labor inputs. Many of the cited references use TFP.) Increases in productivity lower the real cost of goods. Over the 20th century the real price of many goods fell by over 90%.[11]
It seems confusing to the average reader to talk about the "real" price of goods falling 90 percent, why not refer to the "cost per hour of labor"--use the wage (or some unit of equivalent labor) as the numeraire.
- Increasing productivity is not just through saving labor. Productivity can also be increased by saving energy, materials and capital and over time these savings have been significant. Electrification fundamentally restructured the economy of the early 20th century U.S. in ways many economists have failed to appreciate. Electrification and modern power plants dramatically lowered the amount of coal needed to product a kilowatt of electricity and the capital cost of producing power. Energy saving techniques were also employed in numerous other industries. Phmoreno ( talk) 02:50, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
Increases in productivity are the major factor responsible for per capita economic growth – this has been especially evident since the mid-19th century. Most of the economic growth in the 20th century was due to reduced inputs of labor, materials, energy, and land per unit of economic output (less input per widget). The balance of growth has come from using more inputs overall because of the growth in output (more widgets or alternately more value added), including new kinds of goods and services (innovations).[17]
This could usefully specify "growth in per capita GDP in the 20th century..." as of course population of the uSA has expanded enormously and hence total GDP is affected by the scale of population.
Mass production of the 1920s created overproduction, which was arguably one of several causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s.[25] Following the Great Depression, economic growth resumed, aided in part by increased demand for existing goods and services, such as automobiles, telephones, radios, electricity and household appliances. New goods and services included television, air conditioning and commercial aviation (after 1950), creating enough new demand to stabilize the work week.[26] The building of highway infrastructures also contributed to post World War II growth, as did capital investments in manufacturing and chemical industries.[27] The post World War II economy also benefited from the discovery of vast amounts of oil around the world, particularly in the Middle East. By John W. Kendrick’s estimate, three-quarters of increase in U.S. per capita GDP from 1889 to 1957 was due to increased productivity.[9]
Earlier the article nicely pointed out that most "growth" theory and data is about "potential" output so why is there a passage on the Great Depression which was about a deviation of actual from potential output? Just not relevant.
- The part about overproduction and the Great Depression can be deleted or moved to a new section. There is an important point to make in that the balance of labor in the U.S. shifted from shortage to surplus after 1910, the same time period as the introduction of widespread electrification and mass production. This shift in labor was recognized by some economists but not all appreciated the causes. [1] Beaudreau somewhat understood what happened. [2] I think Jerome understood it too. Phmoreno ( talk) 03:32, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
Economic growth in the United States slowed down after 1973.[28] In contrast growth in Asia has been strong since then, starting with Japan and spreading to Korea, China, the Indian subcontinent and other parts of Asia. In 1957 South Korea had a lower per capita GDP than Ghana,[29] and by 2008 it was 17 times as high as Ghana's.[30] The Japanese economic growth has slackened considerably since the late 1980s.
The use of 1973 may be roughly accurate for the USA but that date ("since then") has nothing to do with growth in the rest of Asia. Rapid economic growth started much earlier in Japan, started in Korea in 1962 whereas growth did not take off in China until 1977 or 1978 and when growth took off in India is in hot dispute but no one dates it to the 1970s (my estimates are in the early 1990s) (I have an article on the timing of growth accelerations and decelerations Kar, et al 2013 called "Looking for a break")
Industrialization creates a demographic transition in which birth rates decline and the average age of the population increases.
I would be hesitant to say "industrialization creates a demographic transition" as it is neither necessary (many countries now have low fertility at very low income) or sufficient (at least "high income" as many Gulf States have high per capita income and high fertility). Something the "The Industrial Revolution was accompanied by a demographic transition" would be more accurate as a specific historical experience.
Political institutions, property rights, and rule of law[edit] See also: Great Divergence § Property rights, Great Divergence § Efficiency of markets and state intervention, and Great Divergence § State prohibition of new technology “As institutions influence behavior and incentives in real life, they forge the success or failure of nations.”[42]
In economics and economic history, the transition to capitalism from earlier economic systems was enabled by the adoption of government policies that facilitated commerce and gave individuals more personal and economic freedom. These included new laws favorable to the establishment of business, including contract law and laws providing for the protection of private property, and the abolishment of anti-usury laws,[43][44] When property rights are less certain, transaction costs can increase, hindering economic development. Enforcement of contractual rights is necessary for economic development because it determines the rate and direction of investments. When the rule of law is absent or weak, the enforcement of property rights depends on threats of violence, which causes bias against new firms because they can not demonstrate reliability to their customers.[45]
In many poor and developing countries much land and housing is held outside the formal or legal property ownership registration system. Much unregistered property is held in informal form through various property associations and other arrangements. Reasons for extra-legal ownership include excessive bureaucratic red tape in buying property and building. In some countries it can take over 200 steps and up to 14 years to build on government land. Other causes of extra-legal property are failures to notarize transaction documents or having documents notarized but failing to have them recorded with the official agency.[46]
Not having clear legal title to property limits its potential to be used as collateral to secure loans, depriving many poor countries one of their most important potential sources of capital. Unregistered businesses and lack of accepted accounting methods are other factors that limit potential capital.[46]
Businesses and individuals participating in unreported business activity and owners of unregistered property face costs such as bribes and pay-offs that offset much of any taxes avoided.[46]
I am not sure how Wikipedia works exactly but this seems better placed in a separate article on "Growth and Institutions" or some such. So far the article has been descriptive whereas this is now ranging into hotly contested views about causation. At the very least it should come down into the section on "theories" as the way in which growth is often discussed is "proximate determinants" and "causal theories" separately.
Supply and demand[edit] In the supply and demand model, technology that improves productivity creates a shift in the supply curve, meaning that the amount of supply available occurs at lower costs, which increases the quantity demanded.
The development of new products and services increases both total supply and demand.
This is not well placed in an article about economic growth as this is a generic phenomena.
Robert Solow[54] and Trevor Swan[55] developed what eventually became the main model used in growth economics in the 1950s.
This makes it sound as if they did it together, which I don't think is true.
The big push[edit] One popular theory in the 1940s was the Big Push, which suggested that countries needed to jump from one stage of development to another through a virtuous cycle, in which large investments in infrastructure and education coupled with private investments would move the economy to a more productive stage, breaking free from economic paradigms appropriate to a lower productivity stage.[60] The idea was revived and formulated rigorously, in the late 1980s by Kevin Murphy, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny.[61]
The ordering of the theories is odd, Big Push came before Solow-Swan and one should mention Harrod Domar as the intermediate step between Big Push and Solow-Swan as it was the knife edged path of Harrod Domar with fixed capital to output ratios that led to the Solow adoption of Cobb Douglas with capital and labor as substitutes.
Institutions and growth[edit] According to Acemoğlu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson, the positive correlation between high income and cold climate is a by-product of history. Europeans adopted very different colonization policies in different colonies, with different associated institutions. In places where these colonizers faced high mortality rates (e.g., due to the presence of tropical diseases), they could not settle permanently, and they were thus more likely to establish extractive institutions, which persisted after independence; in places where they could settle permanently (e.g. those with temperate climates), they established institutions with this objective in mind and modeled them after those in their European homelands. In these 'neo-Europes' better institutions in turn produced better development outcomes. Thus, although other economists focus on the identity or type of legal system of the colonizers to explain institutions, these authors look at the environmental conditions in the colonies to explain institutions. For instance, former colonies have inherited corrupt governments and geo-political boundaries (set by the colonizers) that are not properly placed regarding the geographical locations of different ethnic groups, creating internal disputes and conflicts that hinder development. In another example, societies that emerged in colonies without solid native populations established better property rights and incentives for long-term investment than those where native populations were large.[64]
a) to talk about "institutions" and not discuss Douglas North first is just not right. He was the pioneer of institutions.
b) the "cold climate" is odd placed here and not particularly essential to the AJR argument.
Energy consumption and growth[edit] For more details on Energy efficiency, see Productivity improving technologies (historical) § Energy efficiency. Energy economic theories hold that rates of energy consumption and energy efficiency are linked causally to economic growth. A fixed relationship between historical rates of global energy consumption and the historical accumulation of global economic wealth has been observed.[70] Increases in energy efficiency were a portion of the increase in Total factor productivity.[9] Some of the most technologically important innovations in history involved increases in energy efficiency. These include the great improvements in efficiency of conversion of heat to work, the reuse of heat, the reduction in friction and the transmission of power, especially through electrification.[71][72] "Electricity consumption and economic growth are strongly correlated".[73] "Per capita electric consumption correlates almost perfectly with economic development."[74]
This is certainly misplaced under "theories of economic growth" and as the near perfect correlation of per capita gdp and electricity use could be just a demand phenomena and the result of a a budget expansion path.
Over long periods of time, even small rates of growth, such as a 2% annual increase, have large effects. For example, the United Kingdom experienced a 1.97% average annual increase in its inflation-adjusted GDP between 1830 and 2008.[75] In 1830, the GDP was 41,373 million pounds. It grew to 1,330,088 million pounds by 2008. A growth rate that averaged 1.97% over 178 years resulted in a 32-fold increase in GDP by 2008.
worth mentioning this is not per capita.
- Again, you are not appreciating the changes bbrought about by electrification. Electrification was the most fundamentally transformative technology of the 20th century. Electricity enabled modern production methods and saved enormous amounts of energy. The amount of light from a given quantity of fuel with electricity is over 1000 times that of a kerosene lamp. Electric motors revolutionized factories, businesses and households. People who aren't engineers have no idea how many millions of horsepower supplied by electric motors power the economy, manufacturing products, pumping water to households and businesses, transporting oil and gas through pipelines, etc. Phmoreno ( talk) 03:17, 8 June 2016 (UTC)
Happiness has been shown to increase with a higher GDP per capita, at least up to a level of $15,000 per person.[76]
Both Stevenson and Wolfers and Deaton's research suggest there is no upper limit of this type so at the very least this is contested. Plus this is between average and country level GDP per capita, not at all personal and personal income.
Economic growth has the indirect potential to alleviate poverty, as a result of a simultaneous increase in employment opportunities and increased labor productivity.[77]
The connection between economic growth and poverty is much more direct that this as "per capita income" is the summary statistic of an income distribution. An distributionally neutral shift in the distribution of income reduces poverty by definition as mostly "modern" poverty measures are the (distribution intensity weighted) integral of the income distribution up to a poverty line (I would guess the Wikipedia article on poverty says something like this).
A study by researchers at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) of 24 countries that experienced growth found that in 18 cases, poverty was alleviated.[77]
The evidence of Aart Kraay on growth spells and poverty reduction is much more general and much better.
However, employment is no guarantee of escaping poverty; the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that as many as 40% of workers are poor, not earning enough to keep their families above the $2 a day poverty line.[77]
This is a complete non sequitur as "economic growth" and "employment" are very different things.
For instance, in India most of the chronically poor are wage earners in formal employment, because their jobs are insecure and low paid and offer no chance to accumulate wealth to avoid risks; other countries found bigger benefits from focusing more on productivity improvement than on low-skilled work.[77]
I think this means to say "in informal" employment as the statement about "formal" is just wildly wrong. In "informal" employment it is not clear a "job" is the best description as much of this is self-employment in which people work on their own account.
Increases in employment without increases in productivity lead to a rise in the number of working poor, which is why some experts are now promoting the creation of "quality" and not "quantity" in labor market policies.[77] This approach does highlight how higher productivity has helped reduce poverty in East Asia, but the negative impact is beginning to show.[77] In Vietnam, for example, employment growth has slowed while productivity growth has continued.[77] Furthermore, productivity increases do not always lead to increased wages, as can be seen in the United States, where the gap between productivity and wages has been rising since the 1980s.[77] The ODI study showed that other sectors were just as important in reducing unemployment, as manufacturing.[77] The services sector is most effective at translating productivity growth into employment growth. Agriculture provides a safety net for jobs and an economic buffer when other sectors are struggling.[77] This study suggests a more nuanced understanding of economic growth and quality of life and poverty alleviation.
This discussion doesn't belong in an article about economic growth per se as it is veering into other issues like employment. When I use wikipedia I like the focus.
The "income equality" section is a completely different topic (and one whose "neutrality" is rightly questioned)
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Dr. Pritchett has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 13:09, 7 June 2016 (UTC)
References
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I object to this deletion of the dispute tags by reversion without discussion here. EllenCT ( talk) 01:37, 20 June 2016 (UTC)
@ Phmoreno: and @ Volunteer Marek: please share your thoughts on [1] in re "inequality has increased more than we previously thought...." and similarly as per [2] and [https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/finance/why-people-are-angry/]. EllenCT ( talk) 06:42, 18 June 2016 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
Which of these two revisions is better supported by reliable sources? EllenCT ( talk) 17:49, 20 June 2016 (UTC)
In addition to the misrepresenting sources in the June 20 version is the fact that the Inequality section interrupts the determinants section. The determinants are from Bjork (1999) where he explains the calculation of growth according to national income accounting and inequality is not a factor in the calculation. Because of the fundamental importance of the explanation of what determines economic growth the full, uninterrupted explanation should follow the lede section. I have yet to see a reference that says income inequality is significant enough to merit more than a couple of paragraphs in additional causes section. In fact EllenCT's own sources specifically state that the effect of income inequality on growth is "relatively small". Phmoreno ( talk) 16:47, 21 June 2016 (UTC)
The article also needs to discuss the role of aging population on growth. Japanese stagnation and aging population have been discussed in the literature, but the other developed countries are facing a "demographic waterfall". Oil consumption-Scroll down for demographic charts Phmoreno ( talk) 17:11, 21 June 2016 (UTC)
Dr. Robertson has reviewed growth&oldid=727588253 this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
{original}
Before industrialization, technological progress resulted in an increase in population, which was kept in check by food supply and other resources, which acted to limit per capita income, a condition known as the Malthusian trap.[13][14] The rapid economic growth that occurred during the Industrial Revolution was remarkable because it was in excess of population growth, providing an escape from the Malthusian trap.[15] Countries that industrialized eventually saw their population growth slow down, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition.
{suggested correction} Before industrialization per capita income growth rates were much lower than in the modern era. A widely held view is that this is because technological progress resulted in an increase in population, which was kept in check by food supply and other resources, which acted to limit per capita income, a condition known as the Malthusian trap.[13][14] The rapid economic growth that occurred during the Industrial Revolution was remarkable because it was in excess of population growth, providing an escape from the Malthusian trap.[15] Countries that industrialized eventually saw their population growth slow down, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. Nevertheless the relevance of the Malthusian equilibrium as an explanation for stagnation is debated in the literature [Mokyr and Voth 2010].
Mokyr, Joel, and Hans-Joachim Voth. "Understanding growth in Europe, 1700-1870: theory and evidence." in Stephen Broadberry, Kevin H. O'Rourke (eds) The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe 1 (2010): 7-42.
Comment It would be useful to add a section on: The East Asian Miracle; China's economic Miracle;The Lewis Model and urban rural migration
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 20:36, 1 July 2016 (UTC)
Dr. Breton has reviewed growth&oldid=727588253 this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
I have edited the article in Wikipedia, improving or correcting the explanations and grammar and adding a few citations. You can see my changes on 6-28-16. I thought this would be more efficient than submitting all these changes as comments.
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 15:20, 11 July 2016 (UTC)
http://www.ifn.se/wfiles/wp/wp858.pdf
there is a “significant negative correlation” between the size of government and economic
growth. Specifically, “an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate.” This suggests that if spending increases, the government expenditure
multiplier will become more negative over time...
The outer quote is from [6]
The inner quote is from a journal article: Andreas Bergh and Magnus Henrekson, The Journal of Economic Surveys (2011) Phmoreno ( talk) 01:06, 14 July 2016 (UTC)
These are some sources I dug up last year which may be of some use. I did not see them when I glanced through the References section so they may bring something new to the table. The first book in particular has a very good literature review as its first chapter. I have linked the WorldCat listings for the books and I believe I still have PDFs of all of the material if anyone wants extracts.
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link)Jbh Talk 16:48, 22 June 2016 (UTC)
Dr. Crespo Cuaresma has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The discussion is (necessarily) superficial, given the breadth of the subject. The differentiation between "Determinants of per capita GDP growth" and "Other factors affecting growth" is extremely confusing and misleading, in particular due to the fact that capital is included under "other factors".
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 22:42, 24 September 2016 (UTC)
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Dr. Tarp has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
This is a sensible overview. My own assessment of the literature is that the evidence for the negative growth impact of inequality is far more convincing than often assumed.
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ExpertIdeasBot ( talk) 11:33, 22 December 2016 (UTC)
IP number 109.97.73.128, not signed in as a regular Wikipedian, just deleted the following two plots from this article:
I'm reverting those deletions, because those plots seem to belong here. I think they are both quite interesting and communicate very effectively information that is relevant to this article.
Anyone who thinks those plots should be deleted should first initiate a discussion here on why those plots should NOT be part of this article. DavidMCEddy ( talk) 19:24, 25 December 2016 (UTC)
This article is chock full of OR, UNDUE, and SYNTH that does little to convey mainstream thinking about this topic. We should begin by paring all the off-center theories and viewpoints stated in WP's voice. SPECIFICO talk 21:57, 15 February 2018 (UTC)
Theories belong after causes, which is the section Other factors affecting growth. The models use these or they are considered exogenous. Causes are well covered in the literature. I know people were awarded Nobel prizes for models, but that does not make them particularly useful at explaining or predicting anything, in part because of the exogenous factors. One critic said for models to be useful they have to incorporate a minimum number of factors, but that makes them less accurate. Also, most factors are not quantifiable, such as capitalism, national intelligence and new products. There are several criticisms of mathematizing economics as taking a wrong turn. Phmoreno ( talk) 13:46, 27 December 2018 (UTC)
The long standing arrangement was to have "Growth theories and models" as section #4, but suddenly on December 26 you decided to put them at the end of the page, after someone else had moved the section. If you want to keep them after the cause, it's fine. But then, in order to be consistent, you should bring theories as section #4. — Preceding unsigned comment added by VDB 1999 ( talk • contribs) 19:05, 28 December 2018 (UTC)
Doesn't innovation cause increases in productivity, and not the other way around? I don't see why this article puts productivity on a pedestal and only mentions innovation in passing when productivity is strictly dependent on its causes. Nobody ever invents productivity increases, they invent goods, services, and methods which cause productivity to increase. It's like if an article on health explained that increased health is because of lengthening lifespans. 73.222.1.26 ( talk) 02:47, 2 January 2019 (UTC)
Wiki Friends, new comer is here. I would appreciate your advices.
I recently read this article about Economic growth. Main part of the article is about the growth models provided by the fore-running great economists which I really enjoyed reading. Before the elaboration of the models, the article provides brief history of the worldwide economic development. I was amazed about the statement that the “Four Tigers” are Japan, China, Singapore and South Korea. And a few days later it was revised to China, Singapore, South Korea and Indian subcontinent, and then, the current edition as excerpted in following paragraph.
Economic growth in the United States slowed down after 1973.[33] In contrast growth in Asia has been strong since then, starting with Japan and spreading to Four Asian Tigers, China, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Asia Pacific.[34][35] In 1957 South Korea had a lower per capita GDP than Ghana,[36] and by 2008 it was 17 times as high as Ghana's.[37] The Japanese economic growth has slackened considerably since the late 1980s.
It is well known that the “Four Tigers” are Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea. This is not a strict academic issue, rather a loosely used term to describe the history of the economic development. Back to 1970’s, Singapore and Hong Kong were successful in changing themselves as regional financial and management centers and Taiwan and S. Korea were developing “manufacturing” to grow the export to earn and build foreign exchange. The article makes a lot of sense to describe the history of the worldwide economic growth track. It is not that I don’t admire China’s great achievement in rapid economic growth in recent 20 years, but back to 1973, the strides have not yet begun.
Also the reference number 33 & 34 are totally irrelevant. I am unable to trace what is the original and suggest putting in the reference of Olivier Blanchard’s Macroeconomics, page 236, 6th edition, which states what Four Tigers are. Blanchard has been teaching in Harvard and MIT and worked for government and organizations, including World Bank, IMF and OCED.
I would appreciate any input. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Raymond TM Lee ( talk • contribs) 08:16, 8 May 2020 (UTC)
Are the numbers in this article PPP or just nominal adjusted for inflation without adjusting for cost of living?
I read, "Real GDP is measured in 2008 dollars" in [6]:
Am I to assume it's PPP? I also cannot find the source in that source: It says, "World Development Report 2010, Table 1", but I cannot find that reference. I found something that claimed to be that, but I could not find the numbers in that report that appear in this table.
Thanks, DavidMCEddy ( talk) 14:41, 8 November 2021 (UTC)
This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between 28 August 2018 and 22 December 2018. Further details are available
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Above undated message substituted from Template:Dashboard.wikiedu.org assignment by PrimeBOT ( talk) 20:04, 16 January 2022 (UTC)
The impact of berg wind on human, economy and environment 41.114.96.196 ( talk) 21:29, 4 February 2022 (UTC)
@ Trappist the monk: Why do you replace a use of {{Cite Q with a poor incomplete {{Cite book citation?
Are you familiar with Template:Cite Q?
Are you aware that the link to the Wikidata entry for that book includes a link to the Wikipedia article on that book as well as substantial additional information on the book including a link to an electronic copy of it available for check out anywhere in the world from the Internet Archive?
The book is by an economist Robert J. Gordon, who is different from an attorney named Robert J. Gordon, Wikidata Q16224376.
AND any additions or corrections to a citation in Wikidata are instantly available to every reference to that Wikidata item. If, for example, a new edition of that book becomes available, the connection can be made in Wikidata and it will become immediately available to all references to that Wikidata item.
??? Thanks, DavidMCEddy ( talk) 01:04, 7 April 2022 (UTC)
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