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"Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] atttributable to human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.[86]" change to attributable. 98.28.17.36 ( talk) 02:56, 13 January 2011 (UTC) Dan
I recently had a discussion with a gent who thought volcanoes produce way more CO2 than humans could ever spew into the atmosphere. I told him he was dead wrong and HE produced the following source. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-do-volcanoes-affect-w The salient quote is "There is no doubt that volcanic eruptions add CO2 to the atmosphere, but compared to the quantity produced by human activities, their impact is virtually trivial: volcanic eruptions produce about 110 million tons of CO2 each year, whereas human activities contribute almost 10,000 times that quantity." TimL ( talk) 07:36, 17 January 2011 (UTC)
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I did not see mention in this article of "The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project." To summarize: "the project's initial findings, published last month, show no evidence of an intensifying weather trend. "In the climate models, the extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years," atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. "So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871." In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict. "There's no data-driven answer yet to the question of how human activity has affected extreme weather," adds Roger Pielke Jr., another University of Colorado climate researcher." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html Please add this reference. Thank you. Thoams Yen ( talk) 07:45, 12 February 2011 (UTC)
OK, so what changes are you proposing for this article, and how are they derived from that source? (Please specify page numbers and quotes).
Guettarda (
talk)
17:09, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
claimed by some as proof that GW - claimed by whom, where? As far as I know, we don't cover this claim in our article, so there is no reason to cover its refutation. -- Stephan Schulz ( talk) 19:15, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
First, let me apologise for messing up my signature here this morning (I was in a rush due to RL), and thank Stephan for sorting it out. Second, a quick look at
Google Scholar for Compo et al's 20CR 2011 paper shows 'Cited by 2', which is terribly small by the standards of this top-level summary. Thirdly, looking at one of those papers,
A mechanisms-based approach for detecting recent anthropogenic hydroclimate change, by Seager et al, shows that the paper brought here really is a small cog in a large amount of current and currently still inconclusive work. Seager concludes,
"Two estimates of the post-1979 atmospheric state, the 20th Century Reanalysis and an SST-forced atmosphere GCM, are examined. After removing the dominant modes of natural variability the trends in the residual moisture budget are examined. The actual post-1979 trends of P − E show widespread subtropical drying but also a La Nina like shift in the tropics. The ENSO-removed trends, in contrast, show increased equatorial P − E and subtropical decreases and higher latitude moistening in the southern hemisphere. These trends are consistent in pattern and amplitude with the multimodel mean of the IPCC AR4/CMIP3 simulations of radiatively-forced change over the past three decades." and "There is also some consistency in the mechanisms of post-1979 P − E change between the estimates of the observed atmospheric state and the mean of the IPCC AR4/CMIP3 models." He goes on to say, "This agreement between radiatively-forced models and estimates of the observed atmospheric state raises confidence in the models’ projections of future hydroclimate change." Therefore, there is no evidence here that the Wall Street Journal's analysis of this recent paper bears any real relationship to the conclusions that other scientists currently active in the field are drawing from it. Therefore, as Wikipedia is WP:NOTNEWS, I think that the earlier suggestions are the most relevant. Put a brief mention of this research into a relevant place in one or two sub-articles, mention the various responses that it has already received, and wait and see. As Compo et al say, "the relevance [of the 20CRv2 dataset] for climate studies [...] could not have been anticipated from those short feasibility experiments": their work is still at an early stage. -- Nigelj ( talk) 21:10, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
Thank you to everyone for the discussion. It looks like we are converging on a consensus to include these compelling results. I will work on a draft statement to include in the article. Thoams Yen ( talk) 05:43, 14 February 2011 (UTC)
Not so fast, Thoams. You seem to have one fellow traveler, but the rest of us still have strong objections to your misrepresentations. Like, let's take a close look at your opening statement, which I reproduce here:
And here are the fourth and fifth paragraphs, complete, of the WSJ article you cited:
The only difference is that when you copied in these two paragraphs from the WSJ you left off three words (and muddled the quote). I hardly know what we should make of your subsequent statement that "I'm not looking at the WSJ interpretation...", when it is clear that not only did you look (and copy), but that you looked no where but at the WSJ. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 22:27, 14 February 2011 (UTC)
Based on the input I've received so far, I will modify my input to the "Models" subsection as follows: "Efforts are underway to reanalyze historical weather data and provide estimates of global tropospheric variability back to 1871, to allow climate scientists to evaluate past climate variations relative to recent IPCC climate model simulations. [1] [2] [3] [4]" Thoams Yen ( talk) 06:12, 16 February 2011 (UTC)
This isn't a reliable source either: [Scientists connect global warming to extreme rain http://www.bakersfieldnow.com/news/national/116337379.html. -- Nigelj ( talk) 20:42, 16 February 2011 (UTC)
Thoams, your "extended discussion" is tendentious, you seem to be not listening, and (aside from Arzel cheering you on but offering nothing of substance) you have no support, certainly no consensus for adding :what is essentially the editorial view of the WSJ. You show little or no understanding of how consensus works on Wikipedia, and your understanding of how science is done appears to be contrary to actuality. This discussion is not serving to improve the article, unless it be to deter you from doing something senseless. But if you will not (in your words) "get off the pot" (i.e., cease being tendentious), then, sure, do something sanctionable. Perhaps this is the best way to reoslve this. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 21:26, 17 February 2011 (UTC)
End Result reached. I am not suprised in the least....actually I am suprised it took this long.
Arzel (
talk)
14:46, 18 February 2011 (UTC)
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The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
Recycling of various items of political propaganda. -- TS 11:48, 14 February 2011 (UTC)
The May 2010 Times article is not saying anything about a weakening consensus, and does not connect this to the CRU hack, either. It's also out of date. The Royal Society has indeed reconsidered the matter. Their new report is here and fully endorses the consensus view - in fact, it points to the IPCC and the NRC reports for further background. -- Stephan Schulz ( talk) 12:01, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
Would the above be a " Zombie argument"? This is a reoccurring issue, should it be in this wp article? 99.56.121.78 ( talk) 08:32, 18 February 2011 (UTC)
Type into Google "AGW" and this article is the top page that shows up . . . yet "AGW" is nowhere to be found in the article. Shouldn't it be somewhere? Just wondering. Seems logical to me. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Chris1emt ( talk • contribs) 01:30, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
In the first panel of the very first figure on the page, there's a right-bracket "]" between the caption and the figure, just hanging there and looking weird. I looked at the page code but couldn't find the source of the error, and would rather not screw things up with test edits. Mokele ( talk) 13:31, 27 January 2011 (UTC)
While reading the paragraph about Solar Variation i decided to check the linked references but found 66-68 did not support the proposed hypothesis. Instead they seemed to focus on CO2 being the primary forcing behind AGW and make little or no reference to Solar Variation. As such i would recommend removing them or re locating them to a more appropriate paragraph. "...while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.[31][66][67][68]" — Preceding unsigned comment added by Crushtopher ( talk • contribs) 07:04, 2 February 2011 (UTC)
I think a better name for this might be "Global climate change" since "global warming" is somewhat misleading. Essentially some (such as Fox News) state that excess snow fall in the eastern United States is blamed on "global warming" however snow and cold temperatures aren't warm. It is somewhat confusing since global climate change accounts for irregular weather patterns. What do others think? (especially those that have worked on this article extensively) If you Google "Global warming" / "Global climate change" I certainly see more results under Global climate change. CaribDigita ( talk) 17:39, 1 February 2011 (UTC)
Can we please add error bars (with 3 standard deviations) to the instrument temperature record data plot? There is a 5 year moving average, which of course has a smoothing effect. However, since this is only a measure of central tendency, it does not give a quantitative measure of data dispersion, which of course is provided by the standard deviation. If you can point me to the original data set, I can generate these. There is a great deal of scatter in these data. GaleForceWindz ( talk) 05:19, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Climate_change&diff=408750529&oldid=408742500
- Effects
- Substance shortages
One of the effects of climate change is food shortage. The combined effects of overpopulation and the steady effects of climate change are forecast to create a worldwide food shortage as well as a shortage of other vital necessities. [5]
The Food and Agriculture Organization, said in 2003 that teps must be taken to avoid a water crisis in the future. [6]
99.181.152.66 ( talk) 21:44, 6 February 2011 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
An editor pushing some rather tendentious accusations against his fellow editors and demanding action based on unsupported assumptions. Same as it ever was. -- TS 00:22, 5 March 2011 (UTC)
With the UAH down back below 0C [5] and other climate activists giving up [6] I see that the activists here also seem to have given up keeping the main graph up to date. If other's have given up I'd be more than happy to replace it with one that is more up to date and more informative and e.g. shows the predicted temperature rise since 2001, and compare (or should I say contrasts) it with the actual temperature. 85.211.230.148 ( talk) 22:28, 2 March 2011 (UTC)
Graph looks 1 year out of date to me, does'nt seem so horrid considering its only been 3 months since the data became available. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 130.179.113.16 ( talk) 18:21, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
It's become rather obvious that this is somebody pushing a hobby horse based on a single as-yet unpublished paper, whereas we don't or shouldn't write encyclopedia articles based on singleton papers even after they're published. -- TS 00:19, 5 March 2011 (UTC)
This paper [7] looks like its going to hit this subject soon and lead to a complete rewrite of almost the entire global warming article. "The climate sensitivity CS as a measure for the temperature increase found, when the actual CO2-concentration is doubled, ... is found to be CS = 0.45°C with an estimated uncertainty of 30%". 85.211.230.148 ( talk) 13:28, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
This is a good example of how hard it is for the layperson to understand how science works. An abstract is not a paper. Anyone can publish an abstract. It is much harder to publish a paper in a refereed journal, because that means that someone else has checked your results. Harder still is to pass the test of replication, which requires that other scientists can reproduce your result.
What I find it hard to understand is why some people feel so strongly about global warming that they believe an abstract by a minor professor at a minor university but doubt papers published by acknowledged experts from major universities in refereed journals whose work has been replicated.
Rick Norwood ( talk) 13:54, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
Let's start discussing what will need to change as a result of this improved calculation of warming Even from what is available, the paper is sufficient to require us to put a caveat on the figure for CO2 induced warming when it is presented at the meeting in April. But I presume no one would object to waiting until the full paper is available before making more substantive changes to the article? 85.211.230.148 ( talk) 13:10, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
"This is a paper produced by an established scientist who is an expert on atmospheric absorption and modelling." Except that it is not a paper, it is not produced by an established scientist, and he is not an expert. Rick Norwood ( talk) 18:40, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
There is no possibility that this work will be accepted by a reputable peer-reviewed journal in anything resembling its present form. Let's not waste any more time arguing over it. Short Brigade Harvester Boris ( talk) 19:28, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
85.211.230.14 (whoever you are): have you never heard of the saying that one swallow does not a summer make? (Although here I am more inclined to "one snowflake does not a snowstorm make".) What I was talking about above is, basically, epistemology — the study of why we think we know what we think we know. In the current case, you are getting all hot (!) and bothered about one — well, it's not even a paper, it's a poster abstract. Possibly of some potential interest, but scientifically having no more weight than a snowflake. Hardly the fulcrum by which you, or anyone, is going to overturn half a century of research. The only question of possible interest here is why you, with little understanding of science generally, and apparently no expertise whatsoever of climate science, should think that you know better than the experts amongst us. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 21:48, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
In the first sentence, why is the term "Global Warming" defined using the phrase "since the mid-20th century"? That seems to be an arbitrary restriction on the definition with no reference given. Global warming has been happening for 12000 years (see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_glaciation#Land-based_chronology_of_Quaternary_glacial_cycles). Has this definition been erroneously transferred from "anthropogenic global warming"? Or does Wikipedia make no distinction between cause and effect? Mrdavenport ( talk) 19:44, 28 December 2010 (UTC)
"Most scientists" should be changed to "an overwhelming majority of scientists" as cited source states. ("Most" could mean as little as 51 percent the cited source specifically states "overwhelming majority" and goes into details about the number of peer reviewed studies etc. Improves ( talk) 18:27, 27 February 2011 (UTC)improves
I'm going to bring up issues about the FAQ here before I go and change anything. First of all, the FAQ states that an anti-global-warming petition uses the names of imaginary characters like "Perry Mason." However, there really is a Perry Mason, Ph.D -- he's a chemist in Texas. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition and (with photo) Perry Mason's university bio page — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices ( talk • contribs) 01:06, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
Interesting, and I think it gets a little stranger. Turns out people are adding fake names, [9] which makes it difficult discern those real people who happen to share the names of famous personalities. [10] I think the second bullet in FAQ 2 should say:
“ | Some people listed are fake added by pranksters, while others are legitimate who happens to share the same name with a famous individual that may appear to be a fake. Arthur Robinson, a physical chemist who circulated the petition, stated "When we're getting thousands of signatures there's no way of filtering out a fake." [11] | ” |
But Boris has already fixed it, and I'm fine with whatever. What do you guys think? --CaC 155.99.231.35 ( talk) 02:08, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
Here's one that's a bit more complicated: George Waldenberger and his demand to be taken off Senator Inhofe's list of skeptical scientists. The way the FAQ is currently worded gives the impression that Waldenberger is falsely being labeled a skeptic. But the actual Senate report provides a direct quote from Waldenburger as follows:
“ | "Well, I went to school at UCLA, a
big climate school. And it isn't really an issue as to if the global climate has been warming," Waldenberger said on April 11, 2007. "It has over the past 40 years. The question is what type of role do we take in that warming. Is it all natural fluctuations or are the increased concentrations of carbon dioxide part of this? And that's a subject that's up in the air," Waldenberger explained. |
” |
Perhaps, if Waldenberger is to be mentioned, we should refer to what he actually said, which is the reason for his continued inclusion in the report despite his demand to be removed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices ( talk • contribs) 03:19, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
The continuing nonsense from brand new accounts red-linked for lack of any user page content makes me wonder: would it be useful to restrict editing from new "users" until 48 hours after user page content has been added? That might slow down the nonsense, and even give us a chance to get ahead of it. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 21:05, 24 February 2011 (UTC)
Making any substantive decision on the basis of a redlinked userpage would be ineffective in handling this sophisticated and battle-hardened sock puppeteer. It would only present a very hostile face to newcomers--which is one of the problems of the handling of this topic that were raised by the arbitration committee last Autumn.
The idea of holding back from responding to controversial comments is very promising. A genuine newcomer wouldn't expect an instant response, but a talk page pile-on is the kind of thing that gratifies trolls. Tasty monster (= TS ) 09:05, 26 February 2011 (UTC)
Sailbystars' [ ] changes the description of the "ongoing ... debate" from "validity of the science" to "whether the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction'". These are very different issues. I haven't reverted because both statements have some validity, but this change is something that ought to be discussed before being unilaterally made. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 20:59, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
The scientific consensus isn't only about AGW. It basically summed up in the second and third sentence in the first paragraph. I think it should be moved there, rather than repeated in the third paragraph, which should really focused on the public perception and politics. --Tony 155.99.231.12 ( talk) 04:00, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
for the last six years, this article has used Dragons flight's graph of the instrumental temperature record, using a zero baseline of the interval 1961-1990. this showed the current maximum anomaly as about .5 deg C above the baseline through 2009.
now we have a new graph, using a zero baseline interval of 1951-1980, which effectively pushes the maximum anomaly to now exceed .8 deg C above baseline for 2010 (while also pushing the max values through 2009 to above .7 deg C)
why? what's the rationale for changing the baseline and pushing all the values higher? Anastrophe ( talk) 23:39, 12 March 2011 (UTC)
I do not think that a different baseline (or consistency) is a problem as it doesn't affect the scientific accuracy of the graph; that said the main difference is not even the reference period (~ 0.05°C) but that the current graph use a different dataset(i.e. the met stations only, no SST)...while the previous one was the land-ocean temperature index: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.gif -- Giorgiogp2 ( talk) 21:12, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
The illustration of country emissions are ten years old. They're out of date and inaccurate - they should be replaced or cut. They're now better in a history article. Cheers! —Preceding unsigned comment added by 125.239.135.21 ( talk) 01:15, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
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The following text in the article constitutes a breach of the NPOV policy" "However, some scientists and non-scientists question aspects of climate-change science.[129][130] Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls" This text implicates that the scientists that question/challenge the IPCC/climate-change science are 'libertarian','conservative', 'funded' by oil industry, etc. Applying such biased labels to opposing scientist is to my mind an unacceptable breach of the NPOV policy. Rather delete the paragraph starting with "Organisations such as..." and replace with a link to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming. 122.61.189.71 ( talk) 11:24, 2 April 2011 (UTC)
Not to mention that Freeman Dyson isn't actually a AWG skeptic.... Hitthat ( talk) 09:24, 8 April 2011 (UTC)
Hello folks. This conversation seems to be becoming a bit heated. There seems to be a little more sarcasm than absolutely necessary. Now would be a really good time to take a deep breath, share some cookies and perhaps reminisce about all the really good editors that no longer edit here.-- Thepm ( talk) 12:09, 8 April 2011 (UTC)
I'm thinking of closing this thread because it's breaching the sanctions. We've all got to tone down the antagonism a bit. That doesn't mean that substantive issues cannot be discussed here, just not in this way. -- TS 19:49, 8 April 2011 (UTC)
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The two headline graphs on the page - 'global temperatures' and 'surface and satellite temperatures' - are both somewhat misleading, and more suitable for advocacy than NPOV.
Aside from the widespread criticism of the GISS temperature record - others are more widely accepted by both skeptics and proponents - the first graph should be clearly labelled as anomalies, not temperatures. There has been (RS) criticism that it is (perhaps deliberately, probably subconsciously) chosen and presented in such a way as to create a link between the idea 'global temperature' and a graph spiking sharply upwards - although I can't find the source for that assertion right now, and it's probably not worth taking into account. Still, it should at least be properly titled.
The second graph is simply a puff-piece. Why is the trend measured over the period since Jan 1982, which just happens to start at the bottom of a trough? There's an interesting blink-graph I've seen somewhere which cycles through a number of different trend-lines fitted to the same data over different periods. If someone can track that down, it might be a good neutral piece to use.
I'm loathe to remove the graphs without any replacements ready, but they're not great as they are. The first is better than the second, but really neither is great. 94.170.107.247 ( talk) 01:38, 12 February 2011 (UTC)Dave
The state-of-the-art way to measure global temperature is the radiosounde data as measured by HadAT2. That's the graph that should get top billing. The most misleading of these graphs is the third one, labelled "Reconstructed Temperature". This is the infamous "hide-the-decline" graph, with the line for instrumental data spliced on in such a way as to hide the decline in the reconstructed temperature. Kauffner ( talk) 09:48, 5 April 2011 (UTC)
Add CO2 in the atmosphere is a Planetary boundaries metric for climate change/global warming. 99.56.120.165 ( talk) 19:01, 28 March 2011 (UTC)
Per Planetary boundaries the planetary boundary in the table is Climate change and the description is CO2 in the atmosphere (metric). 108.73.113.97 ( talk) 00:14, 1 April 2011 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
LA Times per comment on Talk:Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Add_LA_Times_resources:
As I understand it the team has produced no scientific publications to date, only media announcements, and we definitely don't want to put their very provisional statements based on a tiny subset of their data into this article. It would not sit well with the extensively reviewed material we have used for the bulk of this article. -- TS 13:38, 21 April 2011 (UTC)
I'm not happy with the current revision of impacts on social systems
[...] In some areas the effects on agriculture, industry and health could be mixed, or even beneficial in certain respects.[...]
This statement is too vague. It should be stated which regions will face positive and negative impacts, as well as how these impacts are expected to vary according to the rate and magnitude of future climate change.
[...] Reuters have reported that the US military is spending millions of dollars a year on nuclear submarine patrols and torpedo tests in the Arctic. This is with a view to global warming leading to Arctic ice disappearing during the summers from the mid-2030s onwards, which in turn will mean that they expect vast new oil and gas reserves to become accessible and commercial shipping to make increased use of shorter passages via the Bering Strait. They report that the US is "jockeying for position" with Russia, China, and other countries to benefit from such new business opportunities in the area.[...]
I don't think this topic is important enough to be included in this article. I suggest that it be moved into the
climate change, industry and society sub-article. The reference I'm using for the relative importance of topics is the IPCC report, which is accepted by a large number of countries as providing an objective scientific assessment of climate change. Additionally, I think judging importance should also be based on the UNFCCC, which states the key importance of climate change impacts on economic development, ecosystems, and food production.
My suggested revision is as follows:
There is some evidence of regional climate change having already affected human activities, including agricultural and forestry management activities at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Future impacts will likely vary according the rate and magnitude of future climate change (1). Impacts will also likely vary according to region. For example, global warming of 1-3 deg C (above 1990s temperatures) could benefit crop yields in some mid- and high-latitude areas, although yields could also decrease in low-latitudes (2, 3). Economic studies suggest that this level of warming could result in net market-sector benefits in many high-latitude areas and net losses in many low-latitude areas (2). Above 3 deg C, global food production could decline (2, 3). Several studies suggest that a warming of 4 deg C could result in net market-sector losses of around 0-5% world GDP (4, 5)
References
This revision is more specific that the existing revision, and concentrates on two of the key criteria (economic development and food production) stated in UNFCCC Article 2.
Enescot (
talk)
20:08, 11 April 2011 (UTC)
I'll add another voice in favor of the edit described above. Rick Norwood ( talk) 19:18, 22 April 2011 (UTC)
I wasn't arguing for keeping the whole paragraph on the Arctic! I've removed the bits that I'm in favor of removing on the basis that, unless I've misunderstood, Enescot was keen to remove all of that paragraph and no one else has spoken in it's favor. It does leave it geographically unbalanced (which can be fixed two ways!).-- IanOfNorwich ( talk) 22:16, 2 May 2011 (UTC)
The following ends the first paragraph of the lede:
"Global dimming, a phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of man-made aerosols, which affect cloud properties and block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases."
Any views on it?
Personally I don't think it should be there as it confuses the intro. -- IanOfNorwich ( talk) 12:57, 18 March 2011 (UTC)
Reqest for evidence against global warming page:
http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/2007%2005-03%20AusIMM%20corrected.pdf
If you read this published journal article you will realise how biased this article is. I have tried to raise some similar points about he content here, but have had my post deleted several times. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 122.148.169.38 ( talk) 01:42, 22 March 2011 (UTC)
@ Fukenstien It is wrong to suggest particulates are causing global cooling, since the global temperatures are rising. Suggesting global cooling is being offset by global warming would be akin to saying that a person is floating on the surface of pool, yet that their flotation is offset by the fact that they are sinking. 137.111.13.200 ( talk) 00:48, 24 March 2011 (UTC)
For years the crowd that ran this article have said that nothing but peer reviewed articles could be cited (peer clearly meaning people very well known to those editing here) well now the real peer reviewed literature is increasingly hostile to their nice cosy peer-"consensus" and I quote:
How will they respond:
212.139.61.166 ( talk) 19:50, 4 May 2011 (UTC)
Now that four countries have decided not to renew Kyoto, with the result that investors are haemorrhaging from the carbon trading schemes which are on the verge of collapse as a result. Isn't it about time people here stopped pretending this was real "science" and admitted that without political support this whole subject is about as important as paranormal investigations? What I mean, is that you can keep claiming this is about "science" until you are blue in the face, but history won't remember the science but the social and political affects. Moreover, what is the point of "science" if as is happening, most of the public don't trust it any longer and perhaps more importantly, the politicians are not prepared to sacrifice their economies or votes based on this "science". Come on, in all meaningful ways, global warming as a pure "science" is dead in the water and only awaiting a bit of natural cooling or the next bit of research showing no increase in extreme weather before it sinks out of sight like the 1970s global cooling scare. The evidence doesn't support the exaggerated claims of even a few years ago and it is looking more and more likely that the climate multiplier of 3x is a complete utter bit of nonsense (not included in this article for obvious reasons!) In contrast, the political and social impacts of global warming will always be there. This is a hugely important historical event, the science will go, but the history will not, and it really is about time that some people here that myopically see this as "science" realised that Wikipedia is a place for the recording of events of historical importance as well as the current (or past) thinking of science. 88.104.197.108 ( talk) 12:59, 2 June 2011 (UTC)
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(edit conflict) I am not of the people who edits here on a regular basis. In fact I can not recall ever editing this article. The journal is indeed "an obscure young journal" and it may be peer reviewed, but is one of a set of such open access journal that are not yet fully accepted and they are really looking for contributions. I have had a look at the paper. The author appears to be an economist. He spends quite a bit of time arguing what is essentially the philosophy of science on what constitutes science. That make me suspicious as it is certainly not normal. I think the author is trying to do a fair job in understanding the science that he reports, but I am not convinced he is understanding the papers he reports in a proper way. It would have been much better if he, as a non-scientist, had sought a proper dialogue with experts in the appropriate field to access whether the publications he has noticed really are raising issues that challenge the accepted view of climate change. As it stands it reads as if he just picking up ideas from the scientific literature that suit his purpose without fully understanding all of them. I see no reason to take any notice of this one paper. If scientists look at the papers he looks at, and similarly argues that they throw some of the arguments on global warming in doubt, then we might have to look at those more carefully. These would, for example, include the studies on the isotope ratios and the studies of sea temperature in the last decade. -- Bduke (Discussion) 23:08, 4 May 2011 (UTC)
"Claims of Catastrophic Warming Are Overwhelmingly Contradicted By Real-World Data" looks like a straw man statement anyway. Count Iblis ( talk) 15:03, 7 May 2011 (UTC)
CAGW?! Yet more letters in the denialist acronym? I got bored during the great GW vs CC debate (there's CC, but it's not GW/there's GW but it's not CC etc); I lost interest with AGW (there's GW but it's not A); now there's CAGW - I guess 'there's AGW but it's not C enough for anyone to change anything that might affect my paycheck/lifestyle/commute/new Hummer'. When it gets to 15 letters or more, wake me up. -- Nigelj ( talk) 21:33, 9 May 2011 (UTC)
WP:SOAPboxing "not relevant to improving the article" (archived per WP:TALK |
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For a while I've been watching the google newscount for "global warming" and "peak oil", and whilst peak oil has been rising from around 600 to around 4000 during the time I've been watching, global warming has been going down from around 20,000 (2007) down to 5000. Likewise, public interest in the subject has similarly been draining away. And today, I noticed that in the UK the newsmedia count for peak oil now exceeds that of global warming, and at the present rate I expect that to happen worldwide sometime in the next month or so. So, why isn't this plummeting public and media interest being reflected in the number of articles devoted to this subject? There are currently 65 articles under the category "global warming", (not counting those under "climate change") whilst there are only 43 under "peak oil". And to be frank, this article is long winded, difficult to read and even the climatologists are now asking to use the kind of plain language that has been vigorously rejected here. [36]. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 212.139.52.162 ( talk • contribs) 18:58, 5 May 2011
Please read
WP:NOTAFORUM and take this discussion to a blog where it belongs.
Khu
kri
08:58, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
Somebody will have to put this to bed. It is an opinion piece. Say Goodnight, Gracie. Tasty monster (= TS ) 00:42, 7 May 2011 (UTC) |
Isn't this just a theory? 174.124.42.87 ( talk) 16:36, 10 May 2011 (UTC)
I've had an idea of merging these two sections. I think the existing revision of the UNFCCC section is okay, but I'm not satisfied with the politics section (revision below as of 10 May):
Developed and developing countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of economic costs for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total emissions of a country divided by its population.[123] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries.[124] This is used to make the argument that the real problem of climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries.[123]
On the other hand, Banuri et al. point out that total carbon emissions,[123] carrying capacity, efficient energy use and civil and political rights are very important issues. Land is not the same everywhere. Not only the quantity of fossil fuel use but also the quality of energy use is a key debate point.[citation needed] Efficient energy use supporting technological change might[vague] help reduce excess carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.[citation needed] The use of fossil fuels for conspicuous consumption and excessive entertainment are issues that can conflict with civil and political rights. People[who?] in developed countries argue that history has proven the difficulty of implementing fair rationing programs in different countries because there is no global system of checks and balances or civil liberties.
The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most developed countries.[114] Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and Australia to decide not to ratify the treaty,[125] [126][127] although Australia did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.[128] Debate continued at the Copenhagen climate summit and the Cancún climate summit.
The first and second paragraphs do not specify exactly who has made these various arguments. The third paragraph overlaps with the earlier section on the UNFCCC. My suggestion is to remove the "UNFCCC" section and to replace the existing "Politics" section entirely. My suggested revision for the politics section is as follows:
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[111] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[112] As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.
The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen (US NRC). During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations (Dessai, p4)) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions (Grubb, pp.144-145). This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs (Liverman, p.290). This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention (Liverman, p.290), which entered into legal effect in 2005 (UNFCCC).
In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012 (UNFCCC). US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy" (Dessai, p5).
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[117] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010 (UNEP, p9)) aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[118] A preliminary assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" chance of limiting global warming to 2 deg C above the pre-industrial level (UNEP, pp10-11). To meet the 2 deg C objective, studies generally indicate the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter (UNEP, p14).
The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 deg C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.[119]
References:
Admittedly, this is a rather long revision. I think it is an improvement on the existing revision since political points are clearly attributed to particular parties. I also felt that it was important to mention the "emissions gap" in respect of the 2 deg C target.
Enescot (
talk)
15:50, 11 May 2011 (UTC)
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Global Warming. The myth of the century. Global Warming is the warming up of the Earth because of greenhouse gas/carbon emissions. Global warming does not actually exist though it has been 'made up'. Global Warming tells us of how the world has started to get hotter; they've shown us graphs on the recently changing temperatures, pictures of melting icecaps, and many discussions explaining it. The information they don't show us though is the other end of the graphs. They show us the recent 10, 20 or even 100 years of the graph, which has the slight temperature rise, but not before that, before these graphs it also showed the temperature rising, but also dropping, below freezing, creating ice ages. Throughout history the world we live in has gone through many different stages, from iceages to high temperatures, and back to an ice age and then the risen temperature. Right now we are in the rising temperature stage, and in about another 100 to 200 years we will probably be in another ice-age. NASA has done studies on other planets, including Mars, and these have shown the same temperature rises and decreases, these shows that Earth is not the only planet in this temperature cycle.
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I have been wondering if we need a better response for these "I have found a flea/factoid/report that overturns 10,000 elephants worth scientific work". It would be easy enough to add something to the FAQ. Of course, these anonymous posters are not known to check the FAQ, but perhaps we could get some kind of snazzy image template (like
Looks like a duck to me) that catches attention and redirects to a specific FAQ question. -
J. Johnson (JJ) (
talk)
21:06, 9 May 2011 (UTC)
It is the goal of Wikipedia to provide information to people who want information, not to change the minds of people who have already made up their mind. As long as we keep this article honest, we've done the best we can. Global warming "skeptics" are not going to change their minds no matter what evidence anyone provides. Remember the Bill Cosby record "What train?" Rick Norwood ( talk) 11:47, 10 May 2011 (UTC)
I agree with Rick, but on a different note. Trying to change people's minds is fruitless. They've made up their mind, telling them they're wrong won't change that. I know this is a long read, but a friend recommended a paper to me last week. I think we can develop a different approach from this paper. --Tony 174.52.224.148 ( talk) 02:05, 15 May 2011 (UTC)
![]() | Duh!' There is an answer in the FAQ at ... Color it red if you really want. |
I think the message should follow something along the lines, "Wikipedia is not a soapbox or forum. Proposals should provide: (1) a specific piece of text to add, modify, or remove; and (2) reliable sources that verify the proposal. If you are citing a 'study', please cite the actual study rather than the press release or a news article." Like you said, JJ, we're not making the horse drink, but showing it where to find water. Anons are going to write proposals, they can at least write something potentially constructive rather than soapbox. The point of the message is to help them find the resources to be able to write something potentially constructive. --Tony 174.52.224.148 ( talk) 04:10, 16 May 2011 (UTC)
I'm looking for a way to track interest in the Global warming story and it occurred to me that a good indicator would be the number of comments on this discussion page. But I see that an awful lot of stories have been "archived" and in any case there is a huge number of pages. So, my question is this: is there a way to get a direct dump of comments (I don't need the text just the date). Indeed, perhaps this is a feature that might be worth adding to all Wikipedia pages? 88.104.206.60 ( talk) 08:58, 20 May 2011 (UTC)
While some of the recent edits have added helpful explanations, the lede has now grown too unwieldy and lacks flow. The lede would be more effective if the details be pared back or moved to later in the text, and the current seven choppy paragraphs condensed down to no more than four per WP:LEDE. Short Brigade Harvester Boris ( talk) 03:03, 1 June 2011 (UTC)
I PROPOSE moving the paragraphs starting "The uncertainty in IPCC's estimates" to the climate models section
Also.... today I added pithy language from the most recent research about why this matters (the clear and present danger paragraph). In keeping with WP:LEDE I think that is a good "hook", so I PROPOSE moving the following paragraph that describes some of the specific responses in general could move down to the intro paragraph in "Attributed and expected effects"
Will that help? And as a new editor, how do I know when enough time has gone by for soliciting comment here before going ahead with those changes? Or if you just wanna do it, that'd be fine by me. NewsAndEventsGuy ( talk) 03:53, 2 June 2011 (UTC)
Is the degree of unanimity the same for "air temp is up" as for "we caused it"? Or is it true, as I seem to recall from polls of scientists, that there is more agreement about the observed temperature increase than about what caused it?
I seem to recall that only about 5% or 10% disagree with the 1.5 F (0.8 C) atmosphere temp increase, while 20% or more still have questions about the cause.
I'm not saying there isn't a "consensus" because we Wikipedians apparently have agreed that 75% to 80% is a consensus. I'm just saying that it looks like the level of consensus is different for the two issues. -- Uncle Ed ( talk) 19:22, 4 June 2011 (UTC)
Arthur, as indicated above the figure seems to be about 3% of scientists publishing in the field: that looks pretty much like a tiny minority that shouldn't be given undue weight. Adding to that, the 3% don't all share the same objections, making it an even tinier minority set of views. So, significance to the topic has to be established before such views are added to this main article: if they're well covered by reliable third party sources we can have [sub]articles about these views, which of course must show them in the context of majority scientific views on the topic. Also, don't expert coverage of the views of scientists who have no established expertise on the topic. There's a whole political aspect which needs improved coverage on Wikipedia, but that doesn't mean giving it undue coverage in an overview of the science. . . dave souza, talk 18:29, 7 June 2011 (UTC)
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Should this be added as a reference to this page: American Tradition Institute's Environmental Law Center seeks to learn whether NASA approved Hansen's outside employment, which public financial disclosures and other documents reveal to have brought him at least $1.2 million in the past four years. This money comes in addition to - and, more troubling from an ethics and legal perspective, is all related to - his taxpayer-funded employment. Dr. Hansen's outside employment commenced when he increased his "global warming" activism from his perch at NASA. Since escalating the "provocative" (in Dr. Hansen's word) nature of his advocacy in a 2006 "60 Minutes" interview, these outside activities have become extraordinarily lucrative - yielding on average more than a quarter of a million dollars per year in extra income between 2007 and 2010 from outside sources, all based upon the work he is paid by taxpayers to do for NASA. Bull55417 ( talk) 04:17, 24 June 2011 (UTC)
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{{Merge to|greenhouse effect|discuss=Talk:greenhouse effect#Merger proposal|date=June 2011}}
I've prepared a revision to the section on external forcing, concentrating on the sub-section on greenhouse gases:
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., the concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases), changes in solar luminosity (i.e., the sun's output (IPCC FAQ 2.1 Natural changes)), volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[31] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century. Any human-induced climate change will occur against the "background" of natural variations in climate (2001 ts).
Greenhouse gases
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[32]
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[33][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.[34][35][36] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have different effects on radiation from water vapor.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing (see below) from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[37] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[38][39][40][41] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[42] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[43]
The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be calculated as a change in the radiative forcing of the climate (IPCC FAQ 2.1 Box 2.1). Radiative forcing is a measure of how various factors alter the energy balance of the Earth's atmosphere. A positive radiative forcing will tend to increase the energy of the Earth-atmosphere system, leading to a warming of the system. Between the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1750, and the year 2005, the increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide lead to a positive radiative forcing of about 1.66 watts per meter squared (SPM 2007).
Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for different lengths of time (IPCC FAQ 10.3). For carbon dioxide, natural processes currently remove more than half of the CO2 emitted from the atmosphere within a century. Some fraction, however, remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.
The governments of most countries in the world have agreed that the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere should be stabilized at a safe level (see the politics section). To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at a constant level, carbon dioxide emissions would need to be completely eliminated (IPCC FAQ 10.3). The present rate of emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere greatly exceeds its rate of removal by natural processes. This is analogous to a flow of water into a bathtub (Sterman and Sweeney, p221). So long as the tap runs water (analogous to the emission of carbon dioxide) into the tub faster than water escapes through the plughole (the natural removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere), then the level of water in the tub (analogous to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere) will continue to rise.
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, economic and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[44] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[45][46]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue Banuri, p.93; Liverman, p.289). For example, concentrating on more recent changes in land-use (as the figures opposite do) is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.
Future emissions
The future level of greenhouse gas emissions is highly uncertain (Fisher). One factor that will affect the future level of emissions are current and future investment decisions made in the energy sector (synth 2007; sachs, p112). Energy-sector investments, e.g., coal-fired power plants, have long lifetimes, and therefore also have long term impacts on greenhouse gas emissions.
Analysts have developed scenarios of how emissions might change in the future. Emissions in these scenarios vary according to different assumptions over future economic, social, technological, and natural developments (SRES). In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report on emissions scenarios. This report contains a set of 40 emissions scenarios that cover a wide range of possible future emissions out to the end of the 21st century (morita). Six representative scenarios from the IPCC's report have been used to project what the future atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide might be. These scenarios suggest an atmospheric concentration of between 540 and 970 parts-per-million (ppm) in the year 2100 (Synth 2001). This compares to a pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppm, and in 2008, a concentration of about 385 ppm (US GCRP, p13).
References:
My main concern is that the flow-stock nature of climate change is not mentioned in the present revision of the article. Generally I am concerned that the existing article does not present information in a way that is easy enough to understand for the general reader. The flow-stock issue is crucial to understanding climate change - see the Sterman and Sweeney paper referenced above. I am also concerned that inertia in the energy system is not mentioned either. In my opinion, inertia is crucial to understanding policy issues related to climate change.
Another issue is that of emissions due to land-use change. In the politics section, the existing revision of the article includes diagrams that show regional GHG emissions, which includes emissions from land-use change. Emissions from land-use change is a controversial subject, and this needs to be mentioned. I'd prefer a broader discussion of emissions to be included, e.g., historical emissions, but I'm aware of the fact that the article is already far too long.
I've added a brief description of radiative forcing. I'd prefer an explanation of external forcing that is easier to understand. I know of the scales analogy used by potholer54. Perhaps a later revision could include this?
I've removed this:
Fossil fuel reserves [as suggested by the SRES scenarios] are sufficient to reach these [GHG concentration] levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited
This is not supported by the cited source. Different SRES scenarios make different assumptions over the future availability of fossil fuels (
4.4.6.1 onwards). These are assumptions, but the sentence above gives the impression that the SRES projections are made with absolute certainty.
Enescot (
talk)
16:28, 26 May 2011 (UTC)
I've added a "failed verification" tag to the following sentence:
Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.
The above refers to the six SRES marker scenarios, mentioned in the greenhouse gases section of the article. I've already commented on the problem of the above sentence earlier on in this section.
Enescot (
talk)
01:32, 6 June 2011 (UTC)
Just visiting after a long absence. I'm pleased to see that language I helped get inserted and WMC battled hard to keep out, is still around in some form.
Unfortunately, given the wikipedia cadre culture, this was the best that we could do. We enumerated what sources of uncertainty are included in the IPCC projections. Left unstated are the sources of uncertainty introduced by just about every diagnostic study, from Andrea Roesch's documentation of surface albedo bias as large as the CO2 forcing increase itself, Wentz's documentation that none of the climate models reproduce more than half of the observed increase in precipitation associated with the recent warming, and of course, we still don't know whether the net feedbacks to CO2 forcing are strongly positive as correlated in all the models, or actually negative corresponding to sensitivities less than 1 degree C.
Has the culture changed here at all? Can we actually mention that the projection ranges were not adjusted for the problems documented in the diagnostic literature, some as large as the CO2 forcing itself, or must we continue to be satisfied with this simple enumeration of what was included? I.e., is there any point in climate science literate person sticking around?-- Silverback ( talk) 10:36, 4 June 2011 (UTC)
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Archive 60 | Archive 61 | Archive 62 | Archive 63 | Archive 64 | Archive 65 | → | Archive 70 |
"Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] atttributable to human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.[86]" change to attributable. 98.28.17.36 ( talk) 02:56, 13 January 2011 (UTC) Dan
I recently had a discussion with a gent who thought volcanoes produce way more CO2 than humans could ever spew into the atmosphere. I told him he was dead wrong and HE produced the following source. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-do-volcanoes-affect-w The salient quote is "There is no doubt that volcanic eruptions add CO2 to the atmosphere, but compared to the quantity produced by human activities, their impact is virtually trivial: volcanic eruptions produce about 110 million tons of CO2 each year, whereas human activities contribute almost 10,000 times that quantity." TimL ( talk) 07:36, 17 January 2011 (UTC)
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I did not see mention in this article of "The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project." To summarize: "the project's initial findings, published last month, show no evidence of an intensifying weather trend. "In the climate models, the extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years," atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. "So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871." In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict. "There's no data-driven answer yet to the question of how human activity has affected extreme weather," adds Roger Pielke Jr., another University of Colorado climate researcher." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html Please add this reference. Thank you. Thoams Yen ( talk) 07:45, 12 February 2011 (UTC)
OK, so what changes are you proposing for this article, and how are they derived from that source? (Please specify page numbers and quotes).
Guettarda (
talk)
17:09, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
claimed by some as proof that GW - claimed by whom, where? As far as I know, we don't cover this claim in our article, so there is no reason to cover its refutation. -- Stephan Schulz ( talk) 19:15, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
First, let me apologise for messing up my signature here this morning (I was in a rush due to RL), and thank Stephan for sorting it out. Second, a quick look at
Google Scholar for Compo et al's 20CR 2011 paper shows 'Cited by 2', which is terribly small by the standards of this top-level summary. Thirdly, looking at one of those papers,
A mechanisms-based approach for detecting recent anthropogenic hydroclimate change, by Seager et al, shows that the paper brought here really is a small cog in a large amount of current and currently still inconclusive work. Seager concludes,
"Two estimates of the post-1979 atmospheric state, the 20th Century Reanalysis and an SST-forced atmosphere GCM, are examined. After removing the dominant modes of natural variability the trends in the residual moisture budget are examined. The actual post-1979 trends of P − E show widespread subtropical drying but also a La Nina like shift in the tropics. The ENSO-removed trends, in contrast, show increased equatorial P − E and subtropical decreases and higher latitude moistening in the southern hemisphere. These trends are consistent in pattern and amplitude with the multimodel mean of the IPCC AR4/CMIP3 simulations of radiatively-forced change over the past three decades." and "There is also some consistency in the mechanisms of post-1979 P − E change between the estimates of the observed atmospheric state and the mean of the IPCC AR4/CMIP3 models." He goes on to say, "This agreement between radiatively-forced models and estimates of the observed atmospheric state raises confidence in the models’ projections of future hydroclimate change." Therefore, there is no evidence here that the Wall Street Journal's analysis of this recent paper bears any real relationship to the conclusions that other scientists currently active in the field are drawing from it. Therefore, as Wikipedia is WP:NOTNEWS, I think that the earlier suggestions are the most relevant. Put a brief mention of this research into a relevant place in one or two sub-articles, mention the various responses that it has already received, and wait and see. As Compo et al say, "the relevance [of the 20CRv2 dataset] for climate studies [...] could not have been anticipated from those short feasibility experiments": their work is still at an early stage. -- Nigelj ( talk) 21:10, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
Thank you to everyone for the discussion. It looks like we are converging on a consensus to include these compelling results. I will work on a draft statement to include in the article. Thoams Yen ( talk) 05:43, 14 February 2011 (UTC)
Not so fast, Thoams. You seem to have one fellow traveler, but the rest of us still have strong objections to your misrepresentations. Like, let's take a close look at your opening statement, which I reproduce here:
And here are the fourth and fifth paragraphs, complete, of the WSJ article you cited:
The only difference is that when you copied in these two paragraphs from the WSJ you left off three words (and muddled the quote). I hardly know what we should make of your subsequent statement that "I'm not looking at the WSJ interpretation...", when it is clear that not only did you look (and copy), but that you looked no where but at the WSJ. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 22:27, 14 February 2011 (UTC)
Based on the input I've received so far, I will modify my input to the "Models" subsection as follows: "Efforts are underway to reanalyze historical weather data and provide estimates of global tropospheric variability back to 1871, to allow climate scientists to evaluate past climate variations relative to recent IPCC climate model simulations. [1] [2] [3] [4]" Thoams Yen ( talk) 06:12, 16 February 2011 (UTC)
This isn't a reliable source either: [Scientists connect global warming to extreme rain http://www.bakersfieldnow.com/news/national/116337379.html. -- Nigelj ( talk) 20:42, 16 February 2011 (UTC)
Thoams, your "extended discussion" is tendentious, you seem to be not listening, and (aside from Arzel cheering you on but offering nothing of substance) you have no support, certainly no consensus for adding :what is essentially the editorial view of the WSJ. You show little or no understanding of how consensus works on Wikipedia, and your understanding of how science is done appears to be contrary to actuality. This discussion is not serving to improve the article, unless it be to deter you from doing something senseless. But if you will not (in your words) "get off the pot" (i.e., cease being tendentious), then, sure, do something sanctionable. Perhaps this is the best way to reoslve this. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 21:26, 17 February 2011 (UTC)
End Result reached. I am not suprised in the least....actually I am suprised it took this long.
Arzel (
talk)
14:46, 18 February 2011 (UTC)
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Recycling of various items of political propaganda. -- TS 11:48, 14 February 2011 (UTC)
The May 2010 Times article is not saying anything about a weakening consensus, and does not connect this to the CRU hack, either. It's also out of date. The Royal Society has indeed reconsidered the matter. Their new report is here and fully endorses the consensus view - in fact, it points to the IPCC and the NRC reports for further background. -- Stephan Schulz ( talk) 12:01, 13 February 2011 (UTC)
Would the above be a " Zombie argument"? This is a reoccurring issue, should it be in this wp article? 99.56.121.78 ( talk) 08:32, 18 February 2011 (UTC)
Type into Google "AGW" and this article is the top page that shows up . . . yet "AGW" is nowhere to be found in the article. Shouldn't it be somewhere? Just wondering. Seems logical to me. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Chris1emt ( talk • contribs) 01:30, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
In the first panel of the very first figure on the page, there's a right-bracket "]" between the caption and the figure, just hanging there and looking weird. I looked at the page code but couldn't find the source of the error, and would rather not screw things up with test edits. Mokele ( talk) 13:31, 27 January 2011 (UTC)
While reading the paragraph about Solar Variation i decided to check the linked references but found 66-68 did not support the proposed hypothesis. Instead they seemed to focus on CO2 being the primary forcing behind AGW and make little or no reference to Solar Variation. As such i would recommend removing them or re locating them to a more appropriate paragraph. "...while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.[31][66][67][68]" — Preceding unsigned comment added by Crushtopher ( talk • contribs) 07:04, 2 February 2011 (UTC)
I think a better name for this might be "Global climate change" since "global warming" is somewhat misleading. Essentially some (such as Fox News) state that excess snow fall in the eastern United States is blamed on "global warming" however snow and cold temperatures aren't warm. It is somewhat confusing since global climate change accounts for irregular weather patterns. What do others think? (especially those that have worked on this article extensively) If you Google "Global warming" / "Global climate change" I certainly see more results under Global climate change. CaribDigita ( talk) 17:39, 1 February 2011 (UTC)
Can we please add error bars (with 3 standard deviations) to the instrument temperature record data plot? There is a 5 year moving average, which of course has a smoothing effect. However, since this is only a measure of central tendency, it does not give a quantitative measure of data dispersion, which of course is provided by the standard deviation. If you can point me to the original data set, I can generate these. There is a great deal of scatter in these data. GaleForceWindz ( talk) 05:19, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Climate_change&diff=408750529&oldid=408742500
- Effects
- Substance shortages
One of the effects of climate change is food shortage. The combined effects of overpopulation and the steady effects of climate change are forecast to create a worldwide food shortage as well as a shortage of other vital necessities. [5]
The Food and Agriculture Organization, said in 2003 that teps must be taken to avoid a water crisis in the future. [6]
99.181.152.66 ( talk) 21:44, 6 February 2011 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
An editor pushing some rather tendentious accusations against his fellow editors and demanding action based on unsupported assumptions. Same as it ever was. -- TS 00:22, 5 March 2011 (UTC)
With the UAH down back below 0C [5] and other climate activists giving up [6] I see that the activists here also seem to have given up keeping the main graph up to date. If other's have given up I'd be more than happy to replace it with one that is more up to date and more informative and e.g. shows the predicted temperature rise since 2001, and compare (or should I say contrasts) it with the actual temperature. 85.211.230.148 ( talk) 22:28, 2 March 2011 (UTC)
Graph looks 1 year out of date to me, does'nt seem so horrid considering its only been 3 months since the data became available. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 130.179.113.16 ( talk) 18:21, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
It's become rather obvious that this is somebody pushing a hobby horse based on a single as-yet unpublished paper, whereas we don't or shouldn't write encyclopedia articles based on singleton papers even after they're published. -- TS 00:19, 5 March 2011 (UTC)
This paper [7] looks like its going to hit this subject soon and lead to a complete rewrite of almost the entire global warming article. "The climate sensitivity CS as a measure for the temperature increase found, when the actual CO2-concentration is doubled, ... is found to be CS = 0.45°C with an estimated uncertainty of 30%". 85.211.230.148 ( talk) 13:28, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
This is a good example of how hard it is for the layperson to understand how science works. An abstract is not a paper. Anyone can publish an abstract. It is much harder to publish a paper in a refereed journal, because that means that someone else has checked your results. Harder still is to pass the test of replication, which requires that other scientists can reproduce your result.
What I find it hard to understand is why some people feel so strongly about global warming that they believe an abstract by a minor professor at a minor university but doubt papers published by acknowledged experts from major universities in refereed journals whose work has been replicated.
Rick Norwood ( talk) 13:54, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
Let's start discussing what will need to change as a result of this improved calculation of warming Even from what is available, the paper is sufficient to require us to put a caveat on the figure for CO2 induced warming when it is presented at the meeting in April. But I presume no one would object to waiting until the full paper is available before making more substantive changes to the article? 85.211.230.148 ( talk) 13:10, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
"This is a paper produced by an established scientist who is an expert on atmospheric absorption and modelling." Except that it is not a paper, it is not produced by an established scientist, and he is not an expert. Rick Norwood ( talk) 18:40, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
There is no possibility that this work will be accepted by a reputable peer-reviewed journal in anything resembling its present form. Let's not waste any more time arguing over it. Short Brigade Harvester Boris ( talk) 19:28, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
85.211.230.14 (whoever you are): have you never heard of the saying that one swallow does not a summer make? (Although here I am more inclined to "one snowflake does not a snowstorm make".) What I was talking about above is, basically, epistemology — the study of why we think we know what we think we know. In the current case, you are getting all hot (!) and bothered about one — well, it's not even a paper, it's a poster abstract. Possibly of some potential interest, but scientifically having no more weight than a snowflake. Hardly the fulcrum by which you, or anyone, is going to overturn half a century of research. The only question of possible interest here is why you, with little understanding of science generally, and apparently no expertise whatsoever of climate science, should think that you know better than the experts amongst us. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 21:48, 4 March 2011 (UTC)
In the first sentence, why is the term "Global Warming" defined using the phrase "since the mid-20th century"? That seems to be an arbitrary restriction on the definition with no reference given. Global warming has been happening for 12000 years (see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_glaciation#Land-based_chronology_of_Quaternary_glacial_cycles). Has this definition been erroneously transferred from "anthropogenic global warming"? Or does Wikipedia make no distinction between cause and effect? Mrdavenport ( talk) 19:44, 28 December 2010 (UTC)
"Most scientists" should be changed to "an overwhelming majority of scientists" as cited source states. ("Most" could mean as little as 51 percent the cited source specifically states "overwhelming majority" and goes into details about the number of peer reviewed studies etc. Improves ( talk) 18:27, 27 February 2011 (UTC)improves
I'm going to bring up issues about the FAQ here before I go and change anything. First of all, the FAQ states that an anti-global-warming petition uses the names of imaginary characters like "Perry Mason." However, there really is a Perry Mason, Ph.D -- he's a chemist in Texas. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition and (with photo) Perry Mason's university bio page — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices ( talk • contribs) 01:06, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
Interesting, and I think it gets a little stranger. Turns out people are adding fake names, [9] which makes it difficult discern those real people who happen to share the names of famous personalities. [10] I think the second bullet in FAQ 2 should say:
“ | Some people listed are fake added by pranksters, while others are legitimate who happens to share the same name with a famous individual that may appear to be a fake. Arthur Robinson, a physical chemist who circulated the petition, stated "When we're getting thousands of signatures there's no way of filtering out a fake." [11] | ” |
But Boris has already fixed it, and I'm fine with whatever. What do you guys think? --CaC 155.99.231.35 ( talk) 02:08, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
Here's one that's a bit more complicated: George Waldenberger and his demand to be taken off Senator Inhofe's list of skeptical scientists. The way the FAQ is currently worded gives the impression that Waldenberger is falsely being labeled a skeptic. But the actual Senate report provides a direct quote from Waldenburger as follows:
“ | "Well, I went to school at UCLA, a
big climate school. And it isn't really an issue as to if the global climate has been warming," Waldenberger said on April 11, 2007. "It has over the past 40 years. The question is what type of role do we take in that warming. Is it all natural fluctuations or are the increased concentrations of carbon dioxide part of this? And that's a subject that's up in the air," Waldenberger explained. |
” |
Perhaps, if Waldenberger is to be mentioned, we should refer to what he actually said, which is the reason for his continued inclusion in the report despite his demand to be removed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices ( talk • contribs) 03:19, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
The continuing nonsense from brand new accounts red-linked for lack of any user page content makes me wonder: would it be useful to restrict editing from new "users" until 48 hours after user page content has been added? That might slow down the nonsense, and even give us a chance to get ahead of it. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 21:05, 24 February 2011 (UTC)
Making any substantive decision on the basis of a redlinked userpage would be ineffective in handling this sophisticated and battle-hardened sock puppeteer. It would only present a very hostile face to newcomers--which is one of the problems of the handling of this topic that were raised by the arbitration committee last Autumn.
The idea of holding back from responding to controversial comments is very promising. A genuine newcomer wouldn't expect an instant response, but a talk page pile-on is the kind of thing that gratifies trolls. Tasty monster (= TS ) 09:05, 26 February 2011 (UTC)
Sailbystars' [ ] changes the description of the "ongoing ... debate" from "validity of the science" to "whether the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction'". These are very different issues. I haven't reverted because both statements have some validity, but this change is something that ought to be discussed before being unilaterally made. - J. Johnson (JJ) ( talk) 20:59, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
The scientific consensus isn't only about AGW. It basically summed up in the second and third sentence in the first paragraph. I think it should be moved there, rather than repeated in the third paragraph, which should really focused on the public perception and politics. --Tony 155.99.231.12 ( talk) 04:00, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
for the last six years, this article has used Dragons flight's graph of the instrumental temperature record, using a zero baseline of the interval 1961-1990. this showed the current maximum anomaly as about .5 deg C above the baseline through 2009.
now we have a new graph, using a zero baseline interval of 1951-1980, which effectively pushes the maximum anomaly to now exceed .8 deg C above baseline for 2010 (while also pushing the max values through 2009 to above .7 deg C)
why? what's the rationale for changing the baseline and pushing all the values higher? Anastrophe ( talk) 23:39, 12 March 2011 (UTC)
I do not think that a different baseline (or consistency) is a problem as it doesn't affect the scientific accuracy of the graph; that said the main difference is not even the reference period (~ 0.05°C) but that the current graph use a different dataset(i.e. the met stations only, no SST)...while the previous one was the land-ocean temperature index: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.gif -- Giorgiogp2 ( talk) 21:12, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
The illustration of country emissions are ten years old. They're out of date and inaccurate - they should be replaced or cut. They're now better in a history article. Cheers! —Preceding unsigned comment added by 125.239.135.21 ( talk) 01:15, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
Discussion has ceased being productive
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The following text in the article constitutes a breach of the NPOV policy" "However, some scientists and non-scientists question aspects of climate-change science.[129][130] Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls" This text implicates that the scientists that question/challenge the IPCC/climate-change science are 'libertarian','conservative', 'funded' by oil industry, etc. Applying such biased labels to opposing scientist is to my mind an unacceptable breach of the NPOV policy. Rather delete the paragraph starting with "Organisations such as..." and replace with a link to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming. 122.61.189.71 ( talk) 11:24, 2 April 2011 (UTC)
Not to mention that Freeman Dyson isn't actually a AWG skeptic.... Hitthat ( talk) 09:24, 8 April 2011 (UTC)
Hello folks. This conversation seems to be becoming a bit heated. There seems to be a little more sarcasm than absolutely necessary. Now would be a really good time to take a deep breath, share some cookies and perhaps reminisce about all the really good editors that no longer edit here.-- Thepm ( talk) 12:09, 8 April 2011 (UTC)
I'm thinking of closing this thread because it's breaching the sanctions. We've all got to tone down the antagonism a bit. That doesn't mean that substantive issues cannot be discussed here, just not in this way. -- TS 19:49, 8 April 2011 (UTC)
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The two headline graphs on the page - 'global temperatures' and 'surface and satellite temperatures' - are both somewhat misleading, and more suitable for advocacy than NPOV.
Aside from the widespread criticism of the GISS temperature record - others are more widely accepted by both skeptics and proponents - the first graph should be clearly labelled as anomalies, not temperatures. There has been (RS) criticism that it is (perhaps deliberately, probably subconsciously) chosen and presented in such a way as to create a link between the idea 'global temperature' and a graph spiking sharply upwards - although I can't find the source for that assertion right now, and it's probably not worth taking into account. Still, it should at least be properly titled.
The second graph is simply a puff-piece. Why is the trend measured over the period since Jan 1982, which just happens to start at the bottom of a trough? There's an interesting blink-graph I've seen somewhere which cycles through a number of different trend-lines fitted to the same data over different periods. If someone can track that down, it might be a good neutral piece to use.
I'm loathe to remove the graphs without any replacements ready, but they're not great as they are. The first is better than the second, but really neither is great. 94.170.107.247 ( talk) 01:38, 12 February 2011 (UTC)Dave
The state-of-the-art way to measure global temperature is the radiosounde data as measured by HadAT2. That's the graph that should get top billing. The most misleading of these graphs is the third one, labelled "Reconstructed Temperature". This is the infamous "hide-the-decline" graph, with the line for instrumental data spliced on in such a way as to hide the decline in the reconstructed temperature. Kauffner ( talk) 09:48, 5 April 2011 (UTC)
Add CO2 in the atmosphere is a Planetary boundaries metric for climate change/global warming. 99.56.120.165 ( talk) 19:01, 28 March 2011 (UTC)
Per Planetary boundaries the planetary boundary in the table is Climate change and the description is CO2 in the atmosphere (metric). 108.73.113.97 ( talk) 00:14, 1 April 2011 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
LA Times per comment on Talk:Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Add_LA_Times_resources:
As I understand it the team has produced no scientific publications to date, only media announcements, and we definitely don't want to put their very provisional statements based on a tiny subset of their data into this article. It would not sit well with the extensively reviewed material we have used for the bulk of this article. -- TS 13:38, 21 April 2011 (UTC)
I'm not happy with the current revision of impacts on social systems
[...] In some areas the effects on agriculture, industry and health could be mixed, or even beneficial in certain respects.[...]
This statement is too vague. It should be stated which regions will face positive and negative impacts, as well as how these impacts are expected to vary according to the rate and magnitude of future climate change.
[...] Reuters have reported that the US military is spending millions of dollars a year on nuclear submarine patrols and torpedo tests in the Arctic. This is with a view to global warming leading to Arctic ice disappearing during the summers from the mid-2030s onwards, which in turn will mean that they expect vast new oil and gas reserves to become accessible and commercial shipping to make increased use of shorter passages via the Bering Strait. They report that the US is "jockeying for position" with Russia, China, and other countries to benefit from such new business opportunities in the area.[...]
I don't think this topic is important enough to be included in this article. I suggest that it be moved into the
climate change, industry and society sub-article. The reference I'm using for the relative importance of topics is the IPCC report, which is accepted by a large number of countries as providing an objective scientific assessment of climate change. Additionally, I think judging importance should also be based on the UNFCCC, which states the key importance of climate change impacts on economic development, ecosystems, and food production.
My suggested revision is as follows:
There is some evidence of regional climate change having already affected human activities, including agricultural and forestry management activities at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Future impacts will likely vary according the rate and magnitude of future climate change (1). Impacts will also likely vary according to region. For example, global warming of 1-3 deg C (above 1990s temperatures) could benefit crop yields in some mid- and high-latitude areas, although yields could also decrease in low-latitudes (2, 3). Economic studies suggest that this level of warming could result in net market-sector benefits in many high-latitude areas and net losses in many low-latitude areas (2). Above 3 deg C, global food production could decline (2, 3). Several studies suggest that a warming of 4 deg C could result in net market-sector losses of around 0-5% world GDP (4, 5)
References
This revision is more specific that the existing revision, and concentrates on two of the key criteria (economic development and food production) stated in UNFCCC Article 2.
Enescot (
talk)
20:08, 11 April 2011 (UTC)
I'll add another voice in favor of the edit described above. Rick Norwood ( talk) 19:18, 22 April 2011 (UTC)
I wasn't arguing for keeping the whole paragraph on the Arctic! I've removed the bits that I'm in favor of removing on the basis that, unless I've misunderstood, Enescot was keen to remove all of that paragraph and no one else has spoken in it's favor. It does leave it geographically unbalanced (which can be fixed two ways!).-- IanOfNorwich ( talk) 22:16, 2 May 2011 (UTC)
The following ends the first paragraph of the lede:
"Global dimming, a phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of man-made aerosols, which affect cloud properties and block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases."
Any views on it?
Personally I don't think it should be there as it confuses the intro. -- IanOfNorwich ( talk) 12:57, 18 March 2011 (UTC)
Reqest for evidence against global warming page:
http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/2007%2005-03%20AusIMM%20corrected.pdf
If you read this published journal article you will realise how biased this article is. I have tried to raise some similar points about he content here, but have had my post deleted several times. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 122.148.169.38 ( talk) 01:42, 22 March 2011 (UTC)
@ Fukenstien It is wrong to suggest particulates are causing global cooling, since the global temperatures are rising. Suggesting global cooling is being offset by global warming would be akin to saying that a person is floating on the surface of pool, yet that their flotation is offset by the fact that they are sinking. 137.111.13.200 ( talk) 00:48, 24 March 2011 (UTC)
For years the crowd that ran this article have said that nothing but peer reviewed articles could be cited (peer clearly meaning people very well known to those editing here) well now the real peer reviewed literature is increasingly hostile to their nice cosy peer-"consensus" and I quote:
How will they respond:
212.139.61.166 ( talk) 19:50, 4 May 2011 (UTC)
Now that four countries have decided not to renew Kyoto, with the result that investors are haemorrhaging from the carbon trading schemes which are on the verge of collapse as a result. Isn't it about time people here stopped pretending this was real "science" and admitted that without political support this whole subject is about as important as paranormal investigations? What I mean, is that you can keep claiming this is about "science" until you are blue in the face, but history won't remember the science but the social and political affects. Moreover, what is the point of "science" if as is happening, most of the public don't trust it any longer and perhaps more importantly, the politicians are not prepared to sacrifice their economies or votes based on this "science". Come on, in all meaningful ways, global warming as a pure "science" is dead in the water and only awaiting a bit of natural cooling or the next bit of research showing no increase in extreme weather before it sinks out of sight like the 1970s global cooling scare. The evidence doesn't support the exaggerated claims of even a few years ago and it is looking more and more likely that the climate multiplier of 3x is a complete utter bit of nonsense (not included in this article for obvious reasons!) In contrast, the political and social impacts of global warming will always be there. This is a hugely important historical event, the science will go, but the history will not, and it really is about time that some people here that myopically see this as "science" realised that Wikipedia is a place for the recording of events of historical importance as well as the current (or past) thinking of science. 88.104.197.108 ( talk) 12:59, 2 June 2011 (UTC)
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(edit conflict) I am not of the people who edits here on a regular basis. In fact I can not recall ever editing this article. The journal is indeed "an obscure young journal" and it may be peer reviewed, but is one of a set of such open access journal that are not yet fully accepted and they are really looking for contributions. I have had a look at the paper. The author appears to be an economist. He spends quite a bit of time arguing what is essentially the philosophy of science on what constitutes science. That make me suspicious as it is certainly not normal. I think the author is trying to do a fair job in understanding the science that he reports, but I am not convinced he is understanding the papers he reports in a proper way. It would have been much better if he, as a non-scientist, had sought a proper dialogue with experts in the appropriate field to access whether the publications he has noticed really are raising issues that challenge the accepted view of climate change. As it stands it reads as if he just picking up ideas from the scientific literature that suit his purpose without fully understanding all of them. I see no reason to take any notice of this one paper. If scientists look at the papers he looks at, and similarly argues that they throw some of the arguments on global warming in doubt, then we might have to look at those more carefully. These would, for example, include the studies on the isotope ratios and the studies of sea temperature in the last decade. -- Bduke (Discussion) 23:08, 4 May 2011 (UTC)
"Claims of Catastrophic Warming Are Overwhelmingly Contradicted By Real-World Data" looks like a straw man statement anyway. Count Iblis ( talk) 15:03, 7 May 2011 (UTC)
CAGW?! Yet more letters in the denialist acronym? I got bored during the great GW vs CC debate (there's CC, but it's not GW/there's GW but it's not CC etc); I lost interest with AGW (there's GW but it's not A); now there's CAGW - I guess 'there's AGW but it's not C enough for anyone to change anything that might affect my paycheck/lifestyle/commute/new Hummer'. When it gets to 15 letters or more, wake me up. -- Nigelj ( talk) 21:33, 9 May 2011 (UTC)
WP:SOAPboxing "not relevant to improving the article" (archived per WP:TALK |
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For a while I've been watching the google newscount for "global warming" and "peak oil", and whilst peak oil has been rising from around 600 to around 4000 during the time I've been watching, global warming has been going down from around 20,000 (2007) down to 5000. Likewise, public interest in the subject has similarly been draining away. And today, I noticed that in the UK the newsmedia count for peak oil now exceeds that of global warming, and at the present rate I expect that to happen worldwide sometime in the next month or so. So, why isn't this plummeting public and media interest being reflected in the number of articles devoted to this subject? There are currently 65 articles under the category "global warming", (not counting those under "climate change") whilst there are only 43 under "peak oil". And to be frank, this article is long winded, difficult to read and even the climatologists are now asking to use the kind of plain language that has been vigorously rejected here. [36]. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 212.139.52.162 ( talk • contribs) 18:58, 5 May 2011
Please read
WP:NOTAFORUM and take this discussion to a blog where it belongs.
Khu
kri
08:58, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
Somebody will have to put this to bed. It is an opinion piece. Say Goodnight, Gracie. Tasty monster (= TS ) 00:42, 7 May 2011 (UTC) |
Isn't this just a theory? 174.124.42.87 ( talk) 16:36, 10 May 2011 (UTC)
I've had an idea of merging these two sections. I think the existing revision of the UNFCCC section is okay, but I'm not satisfied with the politics section (revision below as of 10 May):
Developed and developing countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of economic costs for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total emissions of a country divided by its population.[123] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries.[124] This is used to make the argument that the real problem of climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries.[123]
On the other hand, Banuri et al. point out that total carbon emissions,[123] carrying capacity, efficient energy use and civil and political rights are very important issues. Land is not the same everywhere. Not only the quantity of fossil fuel use but also the quality of energy use is a key debate point.[citation needed] Efficient energy use supporting technological change might[vague] help reduce excess carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.[citation needed] The use of fossil fuels for conspicuous consumption and excessive entertainment are issues that can conflict with civil and political rights. People[who?] in developed countries argue that history has proven the difficulty of implementing fair rationing programs in different countries because there is no global system of checks and balances or civil liberties.
The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most developed countries.[114] Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and Australia to decide not to ratify the treaty,[125] [126][127] although Australia did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.[128] Debate continued at the Copenhagen climate summit and the Cancún climate summit.
The first and second paragraphs do not specify exactly who has made these various arguments. The third paragraph overlaps with the earlier section on the UNFCCC. My suggestion is to remove the "UNFCCC" section and to replace the existing "Politics" section entirely. My suggested revision for the politics section is as follows:
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[111] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[112] As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.
The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen (US NRC). During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations (Dessai, p4)) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions (Grubb, pp.144-145). This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs (Liverman, p.290). This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention (Liverman, p.290), which entered into legal effect in 2005 (UNFCCC).
In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012 (UNFCCC). US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy" (Dessai, p5).
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[117] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010 (UNEP, p9)) aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[118] A preliminary assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" chance of limiting global warming to 2 deg C above the pre-industrial level (UNEP, pp10-11). To meet the 2 deg C objective, studies generally indicate the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter (UNEP, p14).
The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 deg C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.[119]
References:
Admittedly, this is a rather long revision. I think it is an improvement on the existing revision since political points are clearly attributed to particular parties. I also felt that it was important to mention the "emissions gap" in respect of the 2 deg C target.
Enescot (
talk)
15:50, 11 May 2011 (UTC)
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Global Warming. The myth of the century. Global Warming is the warming up of the Earth because of greenhouse gas/carbon emissions. Global warming does not actually exist though it has been 'made up'. Global Warming tells us of how the world has started to get hotter; they've shown us graphs on the recently changing temperatures, pictures of melting icecaps, and many discussions explaining it. The information they don't show us though is the other end of the graphs. They show us the recent 10, 20 or even 100 years of the graph, which has the slight temperature rise, but not before that, before these graphs it also showed the temperature rising, but also dropping, below freezing, creating ice ages. Throughout history the world we live in has gone through many different stages, from iceages to high temperatures, and back to an ice age and then the risen temperature. Right now we are in the rising temperature stage, and in about another 100 to 200 years we will probably be in another ice-age. NASA has done studies on other planets, including Mars, and these have shown the same temperature rises and decreases, these shows that Earth is not the only planet in this temperature cycle.
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I have been wondering if we need a better response for these "I have found a flea/factoid/report that overturns 10,000 elephants worth scientific work". It would be easy enough to add something to the FAQ. Of course, these anonymous posters are not known to check the FAQ, but perhaps we could get some kind of snazzy image template (like
Looks like a duck to me) that catches attention and redirects to a specific FAQ question. -
J. Johnson (JJ) (
talk)
21:06, 9 May 2011 (UTC)
It is the goal of Wikipedia to provide information to people who want information, not to change the minds of people who have already made up their mind. As long as we keep this article honest, we've done the best we can. Global warming "skeptics" are not going to change their minds no matter what evidence anyone provides. Remember the Bill Cosby record "What train?" Rick Norwood ( talk) 11:47, 10 May 2011 (UTC)
I agree with Rick, but on a different note. Trying to change people's minds is fruitless. They've made up their mind, telling them they're wrong won't change that. I know this is a long read, but a friend recommended a paper to me last week. I think we can develop a different approach from this paper. --Tony 174.52.224.148 ( talk) 02:05, 15 May 2011 (UTC)
![]() | Duh!' There is an answer in the FAQ at ... Color it red if you really want. |
I think the message should follow something along the lines, "Wikipedia is not a soapbox or forum. Proposals should provide: (1) a specific piece of text to add, modify, or remove; and (2) reliable sources that verify the proposal. If you are citing a 'study', please cite the actual study rather than the press release or a news article." Like you said, JJ, we're not making the horse drink, but showing it where to find water. Anons are going to write proposals, they can at least write something potentially constructive rather than soapbox. The point of the message is to help them find the resources to be able to write something potentially constructive. --Tony 174.52.224.148 ( talk) 04:10, 16 May 2011 (UTC)
I'm looking for a way to track interest in the Global warming story and it occurred to me that a good indicator would be the number of comments on this discussion page. But I see that an awful lot of stories have been "archived" and in any case there is a huge number of pages. So, my question is this: is there a way to get a direct dump of comments (I don't need the text just the date). Indeed, perhaps this is a feature that might be worth adding to all Wikipedia pages? 88.104.206.60 ( talk) 08:58, 20 May 2011 (UTC)
While some of the recent edits have added helpful explanations, the lede has now grown too unwieldy and lacks flow. The lede would be more effective if the details be pared back or moved to later in the text, and the current seven choppy paragraphs condensed down to no more than four per WP:LEDE. Short Brigade Harvester Boris ( talk) 03:03, 1 June 2011 (UTC)
I PROPOSE moving the paragraphs starting "The uncertainty in IPCC's estimates" to the climate models section
Also.... today I added pithy language from the most recent research about why this matters (the clear and present danger paragraph). In keeping with WP:LEDE I think that is a good "hook", so I PROPOSE moving the following paragraph that describes some of the specific responses in general could move down to the intro paragraph in "Attributed and expected effects"
Will that help? And as a new editor, how do I know when enough time has gone by for soliciting comment here before going ahead with those changes? Or if you just wanna do it, that'd be fine by me. NewsAndEventsGuy ( talk) 03:53, 2 June 2011 (UTC)
Is the degree of unanimity the same for "air temp is up" as for "we caused it"? Or is it true, as I seem to recall from polls of scientists, that there is more agreement about the observed temperature increase than about what caused it?
I seem to recall that only about 5% or 10% disagree with the 1.5 F (0.8 C) atmosphere temp increase, while 20% or more still have questions about the cause.
I'm not saying there isn't a "consensus" because we Wikipedians apparently have agreed that 75% to 80% is a consensus. I'm just saying that it looks like the level of consensus is different for the two issues. -- Uncle Ed ( talk) 19:22, 4 June 2011 (UTC)
Arthur, as indicated above the figure seems to be about 3% of scientists publishing in the field: that looks pretty much like a tiny minority that shouldn't be given undue weight. Adding to that, the 3% don't all share the same objections, making it an even tinier minority set of views. So, significance to the topic has to be established before such views are added to this main article: if they're well covered by reliable third party sources we can have [sub]articles about these views, which of course must show them in the context of majority scientific views on the topic. Also, don't expert coverage of the views of scientists who have no established expertise on the topic. There's a whole political aspect which needs improved coverage on Wikipedia, but that doesn't mean giving it undue coverage in an overview of the science. . . dave souza, talk 18:29, 7 June 2011 (UTC)
Proposer indef blocked as sockpuppet of banned user |
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The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it. |
Should this be added as a reference to this page: American Tradition Institute's Environmental Law Center seeks to learn whether NASA approved Hansen's outside employment, which public financial disclosures and other documents reveal to have brought him at least $1.2 million in the past four years. This money comes in addition to - and, more troubling from an ethics and legal perspective, is all related to - his taxpayer-funded employment. Dr. Hansen's outside employment commenced when he increased his "global warming" activism from his perch at NASA. Since escalating the "provocative" (in Dr. Hansen's word) nature of his advocacy in a 2006 "60 Minutes" interview, these outside activities have become extraordinarily lucrative - yielding on average more than a quarter of a million dollars per year in extra income between 2007 and 2010 from outside sources, all based upon the work he is paid by taxpayers to do for NASA. Bull55417 ( talk) 04:17, 24 June 2011 (UTC)
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{{Merge to|greenhouse effect|discuss=Talk:greenhouse effect#Merger proposal|date=June 2011}}
I've prepared a revision to the section on external forcing, concentrating on the sub-section on greenhouse gases:
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., the concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases), changes in solar luminosity (i.e., the sun's output (IPCC FAQ 2.1 Natural changes)), volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[31] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century. Any human-induced climate change will occur against the "background" of natural variations in climate (2001 ts).
Greenhouse gases
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[32]
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[33][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.[34][35][36] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have different effects on radiation from water vapor.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing (see below) from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[37] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[38][39][40][41] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[42] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[43]
The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be calculated as a change in the radiative forcing of the climate (IPCC FAQ 2.1 Box 2.1). Radiative forcing is a measure of how various factors alter the energy balance of the Earth's atmosphere. A positive radiative forcing will tend to increase the energy of the Earth-atmosphere system, leading to a warming of the system. Between the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1750, and the year 2005, the increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide lead to a positive radiative forcing of about 1.66 watts per meter squared (SPM 2007).
Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for different lengths of time (IPCC FAQ 10.3). For carbon dioxide, natural processes currently remove more than half of the CO2 emitted from the atmosphere within a century. Some fraction, however, remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.
The governments of most countries in the world have agreed that the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere should be stabilized at a safe level (see the politics section). To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at a constant level, carbon dioxide emissions would need to be completely eliminated (IPCC FAQ 10.3). The present rate of emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere greatly exceeds its rate of removal by natural processes. This is analogous to a flow of water into a bathtub (Sterman and Sweeney, p221). So long as the tap runs water (analogous to the emission of carbon dioxide) into the tub faster than water escapes through the plughole (the natural removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere), then the level of water in the tub (analogous to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere) will continue to rise.
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, economic and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[44] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[45][46]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue Banuri, p.93; Liverman, p.289). For example, concentrating on more recent changes in land-use (as the figures opposite do) is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.
Future emissions
The future level of greenhouse gas emissions is highly uncertain (Fisher). One factor that will affect the future level of emissions are current and future investment decisions made in the energy sector (synth 2007; sachs, p112). Energy-sector investments, e.g., coal-fired power plants, have long lifetimes, and therefore also have long term impacts on greenhouse gas emissions.
Analysts have developed scenarios of how emissions might change in the future. Emissions in these scenarios vary according to different assumptions over future economic, social, technological, and natural developments (SRES). In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report on emissions scenarios. This report contains a set of 40 emissions scenarios that cover a wide range of possible future emissions out to the end of the 21st century (morita). Six representative scenarios from the IPCC's report have been used to project what the future atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide might be. These scenarios suggest an atmospheric concentration of between 540 and 970 parts-per-million (ppm) in the year 2100 (Synth 2001). This compares to a pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppm, and in 2008, a concentration of about 385 ppm (US GCRP, p13).
References:
My main concern is that the flow-stock nature of climate change is not mentioned in the present revision of the article. Generally I am concerned that the existing article does not present information in a way that is easy enough to understand for the general reader. The flow-stock issue is crucial to understanding climate change - see the Sterman and Sweeney paper referenced above. I am also concerned that inertia in the energy system is not mentioned either. In my opinion, inertia is crucial to understanding policy issues related to climate change.
Another issue is that of emissions due to land-use change. In the politics section, the existing revision of the article includes diagrams that show regional GHG emissions, which includes emissions from land-use change. Emissions from land-use change is a controversial subject, and this needs to be mentioned. I'd prefer a broader discussion of emissions to be included, e.g., historical emissions, but I'm aware of the fact that the article is already far too long.
I've added a brief description of radiative forcing. I'd prefer an explanation of external forcing that is easier to understand. I know of the scales analogy used by potholer54. Perhaps a later revision could include this?
I've removed this:
Fossil fuel reserves [as suggested by the SRES scenarios] are sufficient to reach these [GHG concentration] levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited
This is not supported by the cited source. Different SRES scenarios make different assumptions over the future availability of fossil fuels (
4.4.6.1 onwards). These are assumptions, but the sentence above gives the impression that the SRES projections are made with absolute certainty.
Enescot (
talk)
16:28, 26 May 2011 (UTC)
I've added a "failed verification" tag to the following sentence:
Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.
The above refers to the six SRES marker scenarios, mentioned in the greenhouse gases section of the article. I've already commented on the problem of the above sentence earlier on in this section.
Enescot (
talk)
01:32, 6 June 2011 (UTC)
Just visiting after a long absence. I'm pleased to see that language I helped get inserted and WMC battled hard to keep out, is still around in some form.
Unfortunately, given the wikipedia cadre culture, this was the best that we could do. We enumerated what sources of uncertainty are included in the IPCC projections. Left unstated are the sources of uncertainty introduced by just about every diagnostic study, from Andrea Roesch's documentation of surface albedo bias as large as the CO2 forcing increase itself, Wentz's documentation that none of the climate models reproduce more than half of the observed increase in precipitation associated with the recent warming, and of course, we still don't know whether the net feedbacks to CO2 forcing are strongly positive as correlated in all the models, or actually negative corresponding to sensitivities less than 1 degree C.
Has the culture changed here at all? Can we actually mention that the projection ranges were not adjusted for the problems documented in the diagnostic literature, some as large as the CO2 forcing itself, or must we continue to be satisfied with this simple enumeration of what was included? I.e., is there any point in climate science literate person sticking around?-- Silverback ( talk) 10:36, 4 June 2011 (UTC)