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I'm confused about something. I don't see how global warming can cause flooding. If anything it would cause a decrease in ocean levels. The reason given for flooding is glaciers melting due to global warming. But if that glacier is already there, it already occupies space in the ocean. In fact, it takes more space as a glacier (ice is less dense then water... if you fill a glass with ice cubes and let it melt, the water will take up less space). So if it were true that GW melts the glaciers, it would actually lower the sea levels.--Republicanbetter (this comment by User:Republicanbetter - use four tildes (~~~~) to sign).
Let's pretend for a couple of milliseconds this entire discussion isn't about money. Now if global warming isn't caused by humans, LET'S SHRINK THE POPULATION and see what happens. You know birth control, talking about overpopulation, allowing abortions, free college education for families with only one kid, you know, easy stuff.
Then if global warming continues, well we have less people we will have to move from the coastlines. If it stops it, well geez I guess all those scientists were right after all. Meanwhile we saved animal habitat, made less pollution, and brought housing prices down.
If you think global warming is a problem don't have kids. If you think global warming isn't a problem don't have kids so you can help prove it's a natural occurance. Attack the real problem, it's easier.
--
Lee Wells
14:00, 1 July 2006 (UTC)
Maybe smart people can adopt kids. That way the kids will be smart too. Because its not the genes people, its the upbringing.
Anon 67. added [3]:
Stephan and I have both removed it but the anon persists. Perhaps its time to talk about it. And its interesting. Firstly, CO2 and T are clearly closely correlated on 100kyr timescales, and you have to work quite hard to decide which leads and which lags (and I'm not really convinced that this is settled; for example [5] says CO2 lagged Ant deglaciation but preceeded NH; this argues for a close corr [6]). But anyway, given the regularity of the ice ages (which argues for an astronomical driver) its pretty likely that T *should* lead CO2 somewhat in the cycle. In current terms, though, we know full well that CO2 is leading. Secondly, I don't see the GW page using this correlation as evidence of CO2-causes-GW, nor do I think its part of the std.IPCC argument.
So somewhere there should be a nice discussion of the lags/lead stuff, by someone who knows about it. But I don't think here is a good place. William M. Connolley 19:08, 2 July 2006 (UTC)
I took out PBs change to the "few" bit: I can't see why its an improvement; I see the comment 'the term significant is so ambiguous that most skeptics probably don't contest it, what they do is discount that significance relative to true believers'; no, I don't believe that: many skeptics would indeed say no-sig-warming-from-co2. More excitingly, I took out the Annan para:
Given that the paper is entitled Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity calling these model-based seems perverse, but part of the campaign I guess. AFAICS the LGM stuff is completely model independent; the volcanic stuff is also largely obs. Calling the results "his subjective judgement" is also odd/wrong. But anyway, this doesn't belong in the climate models section; and probably not in the article at all, though it should (and I assume is) be in the cl sens article William M. Connolley 15:43, 4 July 2006 (UTC)
I'm not quite sure how we're going to proceed here, since you and I have such completely different readings of the same paper. I also think you're being supercillious and patronising in your description of it as a speculative whiteboard analysis - to the contrary, its a deceptively simple analysis, but nonetheless very good. *All* obs, of just about everything - includig a simple thermometer reading - are filtered through a model. That doesn't make it sensible to describe thermometer readins as model based; nor this study as such. It is, as it says it is, primarily observation based. William M. Connolley 15:11, 5 July 2006 (UTC)
Resetting indent. I never said it was a null result. Stephan implied it was only a confirming result, adding nothing new, and that was a reason it shouldn't be published.
I actually have been disputing Stephan on these being valid reasons not to publish. A confirming result by a different method and assumptions is adding something new. In experimental science, even reproduction of important results by the same method, is important publishable confirmation. Where I have agreed with Stephan is on the poor quality and questionable assumptions of the Annan paper. I've just reviewed the Gregory paper, and it is a much better paper. It more openly and clearly discloses its assumptions, methods and exposures to error. Models do play an important role in its estimates of forcings and internal climate variability. It is also a pretty good review of the relevant literature throughout. While disclosing considerable dependency on models, it makes the claim, in one place that it is independent of the climate sensitivity of the model, which is the key component of the climate we are trying to characterize independently. I'm not sure that all uses of the models were independent of the climate models's sensitivity, but it doesn't make that claim. The article will bear a couple re-readings. -- thanx. [9]-- Poodleboy 09:43, 6 July 2006 (UTC)
WMC, wasn't your removal of citation needed premature, we are still discussing whether your proposed cite is apropo or not?-- Poodleboy 11:53, 6 July 2006 (UTC)
As I said, its cited to the clim sens article. don't clutter up the GW article with unnecessary tags William M. Connolley 13:47, 6 July 2006 (UTC)
please update this article to reflect the facts please---
Am-
j4th
22:11, 4 July 2006 (UTC)
This could perhaps be mentioned here Count Iblis 10:31, 5 July 2006 (UTC)
FWIW -- I agree with Allen. And Arker. And Poodleboy. Not to muddy the waters any, but it seems to me in my opinion there's not much consensus going on. But of course, anyone in science that has a published opinion on this subject in a reputable source that can be a citation must be correct, and of course they are all unbiased and free from outside influences of any kind. Just remember; lead and lag are related to temperature. Everything's 90° in here. Just my 2¢ though. Don't £ it into me, please! -- Sln3412 05:45, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
An anonymous editor added this parenthetical remark in the list of scientists... link. Actually *in* the link, so it broke the link, so I took it back out. However, the intention behind it seems good. Science isn't a matter of headcounts and voting, that's politics, and the two need to be kept separated. Beyond that, it's not only a disparaging comment, it's has an almost stalinist or inquisitorial ring to it - anyone that dares question the theory needs to be kept on a special list? Plus it open a huge can of worms as to how you count 'scientist' and so on.
Frankly it adds nothing relevant to the article, unless you think a hint of stalinism is relevant, but that should go in an article on the politics, not the science. Probably the whole paragraph could be deleted. At the very least it needs a significant rewrite. Thoughts? Arker 20:18, 7 July 2006 (UTC)
PBs comment above is nonsense. The albedo difference is fine; the implied effect on climate sensitivity is wrong; and is PBs own original research William M. Connolley 07:17, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Here's a big one that bears mentioning, only 30 years old from Newsweek: [11]. Global cooling didn't pan out politically, so now they scare us with global warming to get our votes and our money. Professor Chaos 06:41, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
In case you don't know we might need to add a controversy section on Global Warming, as this article [12] explains the positiveness of Global Warming. We might ned to put some pro-warming views here, and also may show how difficult it is to eliminate Global Warming. Falconleaf 18:44 11 July 2006 (UTC)
...at a first glance. But anyways, discussing a political hack essay which is out of date and cites no sources is a waste of time. It adds nothing to the discussion. If you think otherwise, I can write a few that are at least not wrong... -- Stephan Schulz 23:48, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
You know whats "crap"? Politicizing science. Only this page has so many people going against the consensus. There is another page in wiki which deals with other consequences of anthro CO2 (if I name it, they will start annoying there too...) It also expresses the scientific concensus but the discussion page, well, it only has one sentence. No body seems to care about the scientific concensus there! No body vandalizes that page becuase that particular aspect of anthro CO2 has not been touched upon the media as much. If this were a science debate driven solely by scientific interest and the care to promote good info, both pages should have the same amount of dialogue, but they dont because its a political debate. As a matter of fact, not even the funded groups touch upon this...
Discredited how? Arker 10:12, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
I re-fixed the line "threat of possible global warming" to "threat of global warming". I made this change before, this is why: I think it is clear in the connotation of the word 'threat' that we aren't dealing with absolute truth, ie, this is the predicted future, which by definition means we don't know what will happen.
I think these kinds of word insertions muddle the intended meaning of the offending sentance. I think it is clear this kind of language is commonly used by denialists to overemphasize the inherint uncertainty of dealing with a scientific topic. I think it is sufficient to discuss these inherint uncertainties in a stand alone section without having to muddle the language of the entire article as if we were talking about someone accused of a crime. (as in: "Then the alleged gunman shot the victim") Thanks. -- 141.212.142.247 17:43, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Moved the following from article for discussion:
You know whats sad, congress calling Chrichton to talk about global warming (with gray.) Wow, two EXPERTS...
Seems we need peer reviewed sources rather than www.crichton-official.com and Wall Street Journal essays. The senate committee bit may deserve a note, but would rather see papers cited from those four skeptics. Vsmith 20:30, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Mr. Schulz, perhaps you can tell us your scientific qualifications to be commenting on climate sciences, paleo-climatology, etc., or is it just your opinion here? Dr. JJ 22:30, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Dr. JJ
It seems to me that Stephan Schulz doesn't need any qualifications to make the above comments, just what my old high school english classes called "clear thinking". One doesn't need a science degree to analize the validity of competing arguments, expecially when one side has an ever growing body of scientific work behind it. One argument I have always found convincing is that I know that global warming skeptics usually have a clear self interest for their position - they wish to maintain current business practices and lifestyle options. I have never been able to identify a self interest behind the position of the other side. -- Michael Johnson 23:06, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
I asked because Dr. Schulz seems to be disregarding Dr. Crichton and Dr. Lindzen, an MD takes numerous science courses in college and has an excellent working knowledge of the scientific method and principles, thus is scientifically qualified to state his position on these issues. Dr. Lindzen is a world class climate expert with hundreds of publications (most in peer reviewed journals) [24]that is quite impressive, he is also an excellent teacher and speaker, as is Dr. Crichton perhaps you should do more research on your own before you continue to comment with your opinions. If you are not impressed with Dr. Lindzen, a list of my publications and awards will not impress you either, and you will find some other reason to degrade my input, so it is definitely not worth the risk to try and impress you. Dr. JJ 23:33, 18 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
I don't much like the turn this conversation has taken. I'd like to encourage everyone to focus their comments on the content of the scientific arguments rather than the contributors and their qualifications. Dragons flight 23:42, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
Dr. Schulz, and Dragons Flight, if you think Lindzen has not published peer reviewed research on global warming, perhaps you missed these citations in the link I provided to his hundreds of publications:
203. Lindzen, R.S. and C. Giannitsis (2002) Reconciling observations of global temperature change. Geophys. Res. Ltrs. 29, (26 June) 10.1029/2001GL014074 [pdf]
204. Lindzen, R.S. (2002a) Do Deep Ocean Temperature Records Verify Models? Geophys. Res. Ltrs., 29, 10.1029/2001GL014360. [pdf]
206. Chou, M.-D., R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002a) Impact of Albedo Contrast between Cirru and Boundary-Layer Clouds on Climate Sensitivity. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2, 99-101.
207. Lindzen, R.S., M.-D. Chou, and A.Y. Hou (2002) Comments on "No evidence for iris." Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 83, 1345-1348. [pdf]
208. Chou, M.-D., R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002) Reply to: "Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2, 99-101. [pdf]
209. Chou, M.-D., R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002b) Comments on "The Iris hypothesis: A negative or positive cloud feedback?" J. Climate, 15, 2713-2715. [pdf]
210. Bell, T. L., M.-D. Chou, R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002) Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?" Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 83, 598-600. [pdf]
I think you will find they all make contributions to global warming attribution hypotheses and alternatives to AGW.
And if all you need is some of my work incorporated into the Wiki on this subject, it already has been, so done. Dr. JJ 12:53, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ Also, If you reject Dr. Crichton due the "nonsense" he writes about this subject, could it be you think it to be "nonsense" since you disagree with it? I don't think that to be a definition of nonsense, you should be honest and say that you disagree. I also think some of what is said on these pages I totally disagree with, but I would not call it nonsense as that is not appropriate, as many are people's opinions and they are entitled to them, and if they have qualifications in that particular science, they are qualified opinions, others are, of course, just opinions. Dr. JJ 13:01, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
Indeed Loud, and that is a whole other conversation and complaint I have as well. I have been on both ends, and you must carefully pick your "peers" if you want to get by with being opinionated by slipping some comments in your summary that the research doesn't support, it is done often with AGW papers I find. Most research is straightforward and simple, probably 95%, but when AGW hit the press back in the 1990s, and the "policy" oriented political scientists and lay people took over, it became a quagmire for scientists to navigate, but I will get off my soapbox now, sorry. Dr. JJ 18:43, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
I am sorry you doubt me, I could say the same (but won't), but in my experience with the 8 different journals I have both been a peer reviewer and had my material reviewed, I am routinely asked by the editors and staff who would be likely candidates, as bikeable says, I think it depends on the subjects and journals, JGR-AGU is less opaque than GSA and JSR for instance. 67.10.168.145 20:29, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
This is one of my favorite examples of peer reviewed research that has editorial opinion content that was not peer reviewed (since it was not part of the research presented), yet that editorial opinion is what gets this article noticed in the popular media (like an AP story). The research in the paper has nothing to do with modern AGW, yet that is the headline. This is also the type of article that Ms. Oreskes cited as supporting the consensus on AGW. [25] 64.12.116.72 21:25, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
Here's how the discussion always seems to go. This was published in a reputable journal. Oh, and where do they get their funding? But it's published. How is an essay any different than an op-ed? That's a biased paper. So is yours. Everyone agrees. There are plenty that don't. They are nut-jobs. Here's their qualifications. Ours have better ones. They didn't say where how they got their data exactly. The recreation included too much data. It's a bigger set and they got less. But they said it was the same. How does that invalidate their information? You're biased. No, you are. This was peer reviewed. What makes their peers less biased than they are. But they were published. (go back to start) -- Sln3412 23:32, 19 July 2006 (UTC)
Exactamundo, thus this "discussion" format provides little to the issue. On a more important note, the US Congress has finally provided it's analysis of the Famous and Infamous Mann Hockey stick, by real math and stats experts, not too surprising Mann was off base and biased here: [26] Dr. JJ 14:57, 20 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
The author is NOT arguing that the "consensus view" of global warming is accurate or not, which is what everyone seems to be arguing about (that and each other's qualifications). The author is arguing that there do exist "scientists and thinkers" that disagree with consensus global warming, and even if you take out Crichton, by listing Bob Carter, Roy Spencer, Tim Ball, and Lindzen -- 3 climatology professors and a principal research scientist -- as skeptics, the author proves that not all climatologists agree. This doesn't even seem debateable. Dr. Schultz, even you must admit that there exist climatologists who disagree with the commonly held view of global warming. -- Jason little 19:25, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
I'd highly suggest changing "theory" to "hypothesis" in nearly all (if not all) cases on this page. These two words have strict definitions in science, and various computer "models" of global warming do not fit "theory" but rather "hypothesis." A theory has to be based on a model that accurately and consistently predicts (without failure) outcomes of future experiments or situations. Global warming "models" have not done this. I'm not going to go through and change each one now, but Wikipedia is doing a disservice to keep the word "theory" in these cases. Superdoggy 05:11, 14 July 2006 (UTC)
Man, does the name Svante Arrhenius ring a bell? That is when it all started. So to state that it started today is just crazy!
I'm gone. No point contributing when Raul654's arbitrary assessment of content is unchecked. Bye.-- Poodleboy 09:28, 15 July 2006 (UTC)
(attack removed)
John, even though others may have "started it", I agree with VSmith that you went too far here. Please review Wikipedia:Avoid personal remarks.
William, you too: saying "is indeed mighty" was a provocation.
Let's all stick to the subject, which is how to improve this article. Which is going to take all our concerted effort, because it's already "better than good", being a Wikipedia:Featured article. -- Uncle Ed 18:54, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Further questions? -- Stephan Schulz 21:33, 17 July 2006 (UTC)
I see, I think I know the kind of person I am dealing with here, thank you for the insights.—The preceding unsigned comment was added by Dr. JJ ( talk • contribs) .
As a side note, I've always been impressed and humbled by the credentials of the several users who upkeep this particular page. Most of them make my B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences seem piddly by comparison. EWS23 ( Leave me a message!) 00:16, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
Sorry, but when you are a prof seeking tenure in a liberal (is there any other kind?) university, you dare not be ID'ed with something as controversial as not "believing" in the dogma and almost "Big Lie" properties of AGW. There is much federal and state research money to lose and old line liberal full profs to upset if you question the political correctness of AGW, so I must remain anon I'm afraid, and I am. Dr. JJ 03:21, 18 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ Dr. JJ 03:21, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
I am not saying the majority (if it really exists, since the last survey I took at AGU showed a majority didn't think humans were the primary cause, and there has been no objective survey since then, which is curious in itself) is wrong, but as a scientist I follow the scientific mthod and principles. Part of those principles require rigor and internal data consistency. Most of the research I have seen are just small, narrow studies that do not prove CO2-Temp attribution, but rather imply a relationship between rising CO2 and temps, at least since 1975 or so, since temps were falling and CO2 rising from 1945-1975. These kind of data inconsistencies, plus lack of rigor in considering records from the Vostok cores that show large time lags between CO2 and temps, as well as CO2 rising after temps go up, not before, as well as hundreds of other pieces of data that don't fit AGW as the primary cause. I think this require more hypothesis modifications and research and debate. However, the political climate makes it difficult to fully discuss these problems and uncertainty since the left wants to move to action and shout down skeptics, and the right wants to ignore everything. Scientists are also political animals with opinions, and that also makes it hard for skeptics like myself to be heard, since most scientists are also environmenatlists who believe humans are bad for the earth. The Big Lie aspects of this are clear when the politically organized pushes come in coordinated pulses from time to time. We have just been through one with Gore's film, many others came out of the woodwork pushing the "lie". As the Nazi's knew, for the Big Lie to work it must be horrible and scary, it must be black and white with no doubt, and it must be said, screamed and repeated over and over until the population's mind is numbed and they accept it without question aznd repeat it to others. Look at this debate and see if you don't see these elements.—Preceding unsigned comment added by Dr. JJ ( talk • contribs)
Could some of the participants here add Image:Carbon Dioxide 400kyr-2.png to their watchlist. It suddenly seems that people are eager to add elaborate criticisms to this figure. I'm not opposed to criticism, in principle, but the arguments being used are mostly original research and not reflective of the realities and context of the data. Dragons flight 15:05, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
I came across the CO2 image, as I was looking for a graph closest to the one that Gore showed in his slide show. Personally, I think that the one that is up now is too cluttered -- the different colors and dotted lines make it look as if the last section of the graph is not really a part of the graph at all, but just a projection, hypothesis, or something like that. This completely takes away from the point of the graph, which shows how much higher CO2 is now than ever in the Earth's history. Also, the huge box in the middle about the industrial revolution is not really necessary: it just adds a confusingly re-scaled timeline, and has led (understandably) to charges of POV. The spike in the graph is more readable without the box, and the interpretation is self-explanatory (and, anyway, whould be explained in the text).
I made a draft of the graph without the box, changes in colors, dotted lines and so on. It's only a draft, so it can be modified, but I think it's better than the current graph. If people are worried that not having the colors will mean that the different sections aren't cited, that's no problem: as it is now, one has to go to the image file to see the citations anyway, so it would be easy just to add the cited image to the text of the new image file.
What do people think? — Asbestos | Talk (RFC) 19:58, 19 July 2006 (UTC)
Rather than get into a discussion on scientists thinking xyz or if CO2 causes temperature rises or vice versa, or if it's even important.
"Population growth due to increased carbon dioxide levels from plants has allowed even better farming methods to feed the planet's hungry. This has resulted in the sweat of cattle increasing water vapor in the atmosphere to the point where the Earth can no longer release enough heat. That is the direct cause of the warming of the Earth over the last two hundred years." Sorry.
I do have to say that out off all the graphs that Dragons Flight has contributed; this one, contrary to popular opinion, is the only one I've ever had an issue with. That said, there is no problem with showing the levels, or marking the ice ages, or even with the colors. The box is okay also, but probably is far better as a separate graph. Taking the temperatures and overlaying them on the CO2 is a good idea also, but not replacing one with the other, I don't think. One thing I think we might notice from all this. Regardless of the data, the X/Y axis, scale, sampling period all tell a story. A 10,000 year graph from -10 to +10 averaged by decade is quite different from 1,000 years in the middle of that same data from -2 to +4 averaged by century. Current readings, or different measurements are very difficult to correlate.
In any case, the only problem I've had, is that the comment in the box doesn't fit. The second paragraph under 'Description' on the Image page seems rather POV also. "Since the Industrial Revolution, circa 1800, the burning of fossil fuels has caused a dramatic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, reaching levels unprecedented in the last 400 thousand years. This increase has been implicated as a primary cause of global warming."
Yes, the observed increase has been implicated as one of the primary causes of Global Warming, and yes, fossil fuels contribute to CO2 levels, and yes, CO2 levels tell us we should be far into an ice age. As to when "The Industrial Revolution" began, if burning fossil fuels caused the dramatic increase, or any of the other things, that's a subject far too large to go into in a graph, even if we could verify and/or prove any of it. -- Sln3412 07:29, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
From design and communication perspectives the original diagram is more effective. When viewing the diagram, the first information that jumps out is the increase in concentrations after 1800. This is not POV, it is reality. The data below then provides context by plotting values over the prior 400 ka. The use of colour is actually well crafted, it allows the reader to identify the various sources of data. -- 72.57.116.125 20:27, 20 July 2006 (UTC) J. Hamilton
Meh, it looks like only a couple other people think the box should go. That's fine, if that's the pervailing conclusion. I'll delete the draft. — Asbestos | Talk (RFC) 13:45, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
This article has bloated to 61k. Anyone else agree it should be reduced in size? William M. Connolley 18:59, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
I think the "small minority of scientists" needs to be cited by an outside source. The fact that there is a compiled list of scientists who have publically disagreed with its root causes is useful, but this is by no means a determination of the opinions of the world's scientists.
I would think the only objective way to qualify this is with poll results; otherwise this sounds like original research. If the existing "List of scientists opposing global warming consensus" article is intended to suffice, that is inappropriate. While the information compiled in that article is from outside sources, the attempt to aggregate its results to represent a small minority of the entire world's scientific community is not only incorrect, but it would represent original research. -- Coopercmu 19:57, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
-- JohnCPope 18:44, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Did you read the graph right?
Getting back to Asbestos's comment: you are echoing the liberal, pro-GW point of view there as opposed to objective fact. I would venture to say that it's actually quite rare for the media to give a balanced presentation on GW. It's slanted more than 85% in favor of GW theories, near as I can tell. And I can't recall a single instance of a major news outlet (like NYT or BBC) saying that "scientists are divided" on the issue.
The media generally cite the UN's IPCC as authoritative and objective - and ignore complaints that the SPM is re-written by politicians to fit their pre-conceived notions.
And when was the last time you saw a newspaper or magazine article criticizing Mann's Hockey Stick graph (and the reliance laymen and politicians place on it)? Or highlighting the 1,500-year-cycle theory espoused by Fred Singer et al.? And where have you ever seen Sallie Baliunas's graph correlating solar variation to temperature proxies?
It's a liberal canard that there's any anti-Liberal bias in the media (they say that corporate ownership implies pro-conservative bias, but the evidence is to the contrary). The New York Times is owned by liberals, and the BBC isn't a private corporation. -- Uncle Ed 19:08, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Why would an editor accept an article that shows something that everyone in the field already knows?
I just received a comment that my edits to include mention of a controversy regarding "global warming" should only be mentioned in the "global warming controversy" article. This is a foul. It appears that anyone reading the article on global warming should not be told that there is a controversy. He or she needs to stumble upon that fact by accident. First of all, the article should be called "Global Warming Theories." Also, the theories in the article are not presented as theories, but as fact. Somewhere in the article there should be a disclaimer that the scientific research included in the article is simply data, ...lots of good data, but data notheless, from which many different people have legitimately drawn very different conclusions. Also, the article should clearly state that there is still more data needed for any conclusion to be, well, conclusive. Thus it should be clear that the scientific community is NOT at all in agreement on any one theory or conclusion, especially to include whether humans have any effect at all, negligible effect, noticeable effect, substantial effect, or the entire effect. Also, the article should definitely not be claiming that there is some "prevalent scientific opinion" (this is political agenda-speak). At *THIS* point there should be a link to the "Global Warming Controversy." As it stands, the article serves only as a sort of minor propaganda to push a the reader to a particular viewpoint rather than simply providing comprehensive information. I know there are many "doom and gloom" people who believe the earth will end if we don't abolish all the earth's factories and petroleum refineries, and that viewpoint should *ALSO* be reflected as one of many conclusion in an overall spectrum. Since virtually all conclusions on the matter are based on some scientific data, it is just wrong to claim, or even imply, that any one viewpoint is the scientifically correct one...until, of course, some conclusive data is obtained.
-- Coopercmu 19:31, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
I don't much like references at the end of an article myself (2 clicks, not one) but 3 reviewers seem to have asked for it. It would seem like spoiling the ship for a hapeth of tar if we don't do it and thus fail to get this made a FA. The FA guidelines Wikipedia:What is a featured article? also say a FA should have a "References" section where the references are set out, complemented where appropriate by inline citations (see Wikipedia:Citing sources). For articles with footnotes or endnotes, the meta:cite format is strongly encouraged" So I have 3 questions for people.
But do keep going - I think we are nearly there, don't be downhearted now.-- NHSavage 21:49, 8 May 2006 (UTC)
I had a go at doing some automated reference fixing - just all the inline web references. It could still use some tidying, but it's a start. Sandbox version at User:Leland_McInnes/Global_warming_references. -- Leland McInnes 02:16, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
I strongly dislike the ref format & like the inline links. So I've reverted back to the pre-ref version. Sorry about all the wasted work but this question has a loooong history and was settled in favour of in-line ages ago. I also disagree with converting the links just to make FA people happy. Harvard style is OK though. William M. Connolley 07:38, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
If getting to FA means swapping to "ref" format, then FA is broken, and I see no reason to go for it. William M. Connolley 09:26, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
All citations formatted Judgesurreal777 10:06, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
So let's try to come to an agreement ;-). This may also be something of a cultural clash. In my field of computer science, we use footnotes (normally numbered) for details and side remarks. We use references into the bibliography for attribution. Such references can be numbered [1], [2], they can be name+date (Schulz and Connolley, 2006), (SlimVirgin et al., 2006) (I guess that's what is called Harvard style), or, probaby the most frequent case, they use a short reference key [SC06], [SJ+06]. We do not use footnotes for references, something that seems to be frequent for the humanities.
What now makes me somewhat leaning towards a unified system using <ref> are two points.
So what are the objective disadvantages of this system (apart from personal dislike and unfamilarity)? I see one:
-- Stephan Schulz 10:59, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
Having thought very hard about this one I am in agreement here. I know it is not perfect but I think the combination of citation methods we use at the moment is even worse. I don't think any other way of unifying the citations works and I still don't think it is possible to sensibly use Harvard style for URLs. I think we should adopt <ref>-- NHSavage 11:05, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
Looks like someone is in a hurry - assuming consensus after only a few hours of limited debate, we don't all op in the same time zone :-) As SlimVirgin said Harvard and embedded link style is acceptable - and is my preference. For a FA enthusiast to jump in and help by doing a unilateral convert without consensus is absurd. I strongly dislike the notes style of a numbered list and I rather dislike FA enthusiasts jumping in to modify an article to fit their mold. If footnotes are required for FA - then we don't need FA. Judgesurreal777 please take a look at the history and the arbcomm decision last winter relating to this. Vsmith 11:17, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
I've just resurrected this discussion because I noticed that the issue of dead links had not been given any consideration. Templates such as {{ cite web}} provide additional information in the article that can be used to find a source again if its link changes, or if it is removed from one of several mirror sites. Any comments? - Samsara ( talk • contribs) 13:14, 27 June 2006 (UTC)
Here are some more examples of the conversion script: [30] [31] [32] [33]. - Samsara ( talk • contribs) 09:48, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
Just thought the folks who follow this talk page might be interested - I just dropped by, noticed the ref style, and started poking a little. Noticed that the References section includes <references/>, but didn't see any <ref>-style footnotes. Hmmm. Had the thought that maybe I could contribute some copyediting, and convert the refs to <ref>s (having done a lot of that lately). Went to the discussion page to (1) see if anybody'd registered any opinions on the subject and (2) if not, ask the community, to see if folks thought it would be okay to do so. Found this thread. Read it. Went "oh", and went back to minding my own business.
For the record, though, I do find the current ref style hard to use. Seeing a [1] style ref, and a list of references at the bottom of the article, it's a lot of work to discover if the number corresponds to any of the references and, if so, which one. For all of its disadvantages, <ref> does make it easier for the reader in this sense.
Oh, and congrats on FA! -- Waitak 06:16, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
I want to argue against the theory that we are the cause of global warming and climate change. Considering the Earth is billions of years old, I have a hard time believing that humans could be the cause of this phenomenon. If this hasn't already happened before, then how did the Ice Age end? The Earth was in a state of extreme cold, then it warms up again, a prime example of climate change. The Ice Age happened before humans could burn fuel or pollute the environment significantly, so the only logical explanation is that the Earth went through this process before, unaffected by humans. Humans are animals and are a part of nature just like any other living thing on this Earth, which means we are just something else living under the Earth's atmosphere. The Earth itself has been and is more powerful than any little organism that could ever dare to stand against Her. Proof of that is in the fact that we are still struck dumb at the forces She produces, and we are still at Her mercy, not the other way around. Wolfranger 13:06, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
Oh, we can change the earth... I always use chernobyl as an example, but in 10 years, I'll be using global warming...
Exactly. Anyone who beleives in Global warming has NO common sense. The earth goes in cycles, people! Take the Ice Age, how did it melt down? This "Global Warming" Phenomenon. It's natural, people. Calm down. 65.12.134.148 12:07, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
As for Anon (65.12.134.148)... He appears to have learned everything he knows about climate change from Sid and Manny. -- Oscar Bravo 12:12, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
I am not saying global warming isn't happening, because it is. I just don't believe humans can cause such an enormous phenomenon. One question I have, how can scientists attribute it to humans? Sure, we give off alot of carbon dioxide. But, carbon dioxide is a natural gas. Humans give it off naturally as a waste product through respiration. Plants absorb it and make oxygen. But, other animals give off carbon dioxide as well as a result of respiration. Carbon dioxide has been released into the atmosphere since life first appeared on Earth, which means global warming could be attributed to just another natural cause. Wolfranger 15:50, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
I see your point, Stephan. Wolfranger 13:17, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
The only reason that there is any controversy about the causes of Global Warming is that, if it is caused by human activity, we have a responsibility to do something about it. Unfortunately, "doing something about it" probably means reducing CO2 emissions, which means things like clean power generation, less oil use, smaller cars, and generally adding costs to industrialists who were getting along just fine until all this pesky environmentalism came along. Pretending it isn't happening or assuming it's nothing to do with us, means business as usual and no risk to the gravy train. -- Oscar Bravo 07:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Into the fray - An Alternative Theory - Considering that the earth's tilt on her axis produces significant seasonal changes it becomes obvious that incremental changes in the earth's orbit would have long term effects upon climate. This research (cited below) proposes answers left unexplained by Milankovitch_cycles. - The Orbital Variance Theory © (used with permission) [ [34]] suggests that the actual length of a year varies (over the eons) by as much as 5 days (fluctuating 2.5 days on either side of the mean year) and that the variance is caused by the gradual expansion and contraction of the Earth's orbit over hundreds of millions of years (a natural process). The orbital variances gradually (and cyclically) decrease and increase (over eons) the distance of the earth from the sun. The result is that the length of a day remains constant (Earth's daily axis rotation), however, the length of a year (Earth's orbit of the sun) varies depending upon where we are within the orbital cycle (closer or farther from the sun). - The astronomical measurements that we have used to determine the length of a year have been taken within a very small window of about 2000 years (introduction of the solar calendar). We presume that our astronomical measurements of the length of a year are constants. Presently, according to the theory, the earth's orbit is in a 'contracting phase' with global warming as a natural result (the expanding orbital phase produces Ice Ages). The Orbital Variance Theory © is 'continuing original research' and, therefore, not 'verifiable' for inclusion in the main article. . John Charles Webb 20:46, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
- Other areas that are worthy of investigating are: 1) the growing contribution of aviation to Global Warming [ [35]] and 2) deforestation and the diminshing rain forests [ [36]] John Charles Webb 20:46, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Vocal Eco-nazis insist on hijacking this article for a liberal political agenda. I don't see how this can be stopped, other than to delete and edit whenever the politics are reinserted. -- JohnCPope 13:56, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
Cut:
Ha, 3.5% on top of the equilibrium quantity... That doubles the equilibrium quantity in roughly 21 years...
I don't think the article has enough about these two points:
Urban heat island effect in the north and south poles...?
I've seen some web sites which illustrate CO2 increases coming after temperature increases. Anyone else seen these? Friends of science. Funded by Exxon. Assume its true, explain the mechanism. I say assume because its not.
And how much analysis has been done by the opposing GW theory camps on UH Islands affecting the surface record? -- Uncle Ed 20:27, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
Another observation: the time when the remaining sceptics start crapping their pants about GW and wishing they'd figured it out sooner might be nearer than they think...
Independent - 'Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert'.
Rd232
talk
21:59, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
Hello - I edited a section of global warming trying to give some criticism of the "established belief" yet it was reverted back soon after I did the edit. The reasons you gave for reverting it was that it was unsourced and really did not justify contradicting the established view on global warming. I apologize for the former since I'm not sure how exactly I was to go about citing it, but for the latter I am quite appalled. Here are some links you might find interesting (almost all from scientific, peer-reviewed magazines):
http://pages.towson.edu/mroberge/hydro/McKendry2003.pdf That report goes into the Urban Heat Island effect and explicitly says towards the end that the scientists attempt to re-adjust temperatures for it might be too simplistic. That being said, the adjusted temperatures to see the true effect of greenhouse gases on global mean temperatures might not be correct. In other words, the global warming we are experiencing could be due to an error in adjusting measurements from the Urban Heat Island effect.
http://www.richel.org/theodoc/pdf/ClimChange2004.pdf This is a report on the Greenland Ice Sheet. For the first half of the twentieth century, it underwent a warming trend but since 1940 it has been going through a slight cooling trend. Since the mid-1980's, that cooling trend has become more dramatic. Moreover, Greenland is having a net increase of ice mass.
http://search.epnet.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&an=6061747 This article brings up two strong points: the West Antarctica sheet is having a net GAIN of ice each year AND Antarctica has recently reversed a melting trend that has been going on for the past few thousand years.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/308/5730/1898 This is an abstract from a Science article that brings up one strong point: East Antarctica is gaining ~45 billion tons of ice a year.
http://www.npr.org/programs/morning/features/2002/jan/antarctica/020118.antarctica.html This is a nice article from a left leaning organization, NPR. It throws the idea out of the water that Antarctica is gaining ice due to global warming because over the past few decades Antarctica has been getting COLDER like Greenland. Therefore, with the information I've given you so far, the two places that contain the most ice on Earth are getting colder and gaining ice - pretty good indication that global warming might not be all that a lot of scientists are making it out to be.
http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=204020211&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=17210&RQT=309&VName=PQD Finally, this article talks about the Sahara desert and how, instead of growing and getting hotter due to global warming, it is in fact RETREATING. Strange that is happening when global warming is definitely happening.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D_lrg.gif Finally, here's a mean temperature graph of the United States since 1880. If you see, the recent increase in temperature is not disimiliar from the one in the late 1920's through 1930's. Oddly enough, as carbon dioxide emissions were increasing from 1940-1970, the temperature was decreasing.
I'd also like to note that if you search for temperature graphs on NASA's website, the stations in or near larger cities show the most dramatic trends of getting hotter. Many other graphs show not much change or even cooling. Urban Island Heat effect maybe? Anyway, I hope the evidence I've given you might give you an idea for why I am at least skeptical about the idea that humans are affecting global warming by emitting more carbon dioxide than what naturally should be emitted. —Preceding unsigned comment added by DrLove829 ( talk • contribs)
Granted, it comes from what some people claim to be a left-leaning news source, but that would if anything give more credit to the facts they give since those on the left tend to be more passionate about global warming. Anyway, my point with that article is that it does make sense for Antarctica to gain ice as the temperature increases (more precipitation), but since Antarctica as a whole is decreasing in temperature, that puts to suspect the idea that Antarctica is gaining ice because it's getting colder.
Wikipedia articles should be presenting facts, and should not be a forum for anyone's political opinion. Much data has been collected, and so data is fine to be presented. There are many theories based on the data, therefore varying theories so based on the data, are fair game to be mentioned, but not promoted, especially as anything other than someone's theory based on data. The article should mention that there is controversy and link to a contoversy article.
It is a foul to claim that any theory is "the prevailing scientific theory" because 1) there isn't one, 2)that wording is simply political agenda-speak, and 3) it converts the article into a politcal forum pushing that one theory.
To Uncle Ed: Please do not pretend to "chastize" me about "personal attacks" in the talk page. This article has fallen victim to petty political agendas and you really aren't helping much. The politics need to be removed, and to that end, I will call a spade a spade. If you wish to help, you should be calling all those onto the carpet who have watched some Geenpeace documentary and now insist on converting this Wikipedia article into whatever their brainwashed minds have been told to repeat. If there is data on global warming then that should be presented in the article. If you are playing "let's vote on which theories we should present as legitimate, then you aren't helping. -- JohnCPope 13:19, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
DF wrote: Nearly the entire scientific community agrees on the basic outline of anthropogenic global warming
Well, according to Benny Peiser's literature search, it's less than 3 percent. So, where are you getting "nearly the entire scientific community" from? I'm going to put that in as "fairly describe the dispute". -- Uncle Ed 16:06, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
The sky is blue, pigs cannot fly, Peiser is a hack, and the IPCC and other national and international organizations express the consensus view on the topic of global warming. How does wikipedia respond when the less well informed descend and attempt to inflict their reality. Is it possible to set up a wiki or similar site for the reality challenged? -- 205.189.26.38 16:25, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
I think you just made the point about being reality challenged. You have to decide what literature you are going to read, if you are going to get your information on this topic from falacy follies, Benny Peiser, Bob Carter, Tim Ball, and similar luminaries the subject matter will never come together for you. Fortunately there is an extensive literature of credible information available. This article reflects that literature. If you have a specific point to make there are several regular contributors here that could address it. The shotgun approach will not get a serious reply. J Hamilton-- 72.57.116.125 05:11, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
Reality challenged? All the graphs shown in this article - CO2 is my favorite - show co2 has had peaks long before man made an appearance ( or his cars, etc ). These graphs all seem to have the same peaks,etc - nonscientific terminology, sorry - this seems to be long term cyclic type phenomenon. Politically correct thinking doesn't fit too well with events that happen over millenium. I believe, in 1974 we were told we were going to all freeze to death - now we are going to boil to death. I suspect we will neither boil or freeze to death - but that is how I interrupt the last few million years worth of data. Al Gore probably doesn't think the same, but if he could be Pres by singing global freezing, I wonder what he would do and his friends who know reality so well.
Ed, you wrote: The bulk of research money goes to supporting a scientific opinion on climate change promated by the UN's IPCC, that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities" [37]. Apart from the fact that the reference is wrong for your claim, so are both the assumptions and the implied logic of the whole sentence. Do you have any source for the primary claim? What do you even include as "research money"? Public research money as given by the NFS in the US, the DFG in Germany, and similar institutions is not given to "support a view", but to perform a research project. If we know the outcome beforehand, no study will be funded. But even assuming your questionable premisses about the distribution of the money: What do you expect? Give a large number of equal grants to a group of competent scientists and tell them to investigate the shape of the earth. Most of the studies will come out with "approximately oblate spheroid" or maybe even "roughly spherical". Note how flat earther can claim that "of course that's the result - see how most of the money went to spherists". -- Stephan Schulz 16:30, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
- a) There are many scientists who claim that many other scientists are mistaken about their thoeries - b) all funded scientific research has an interest in marketing their own legitimately scientifically-based, yet incompatible and competing, theories - c) outside the scientific community, yes, there is one prevalently popular humano-centered opinion All of the above is being disguised and intermixed into the article, and I think it is unfair to anyone who might happen to read the article in an attempt to acquire some unbiased information. -- JohnCPope 18:39, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
I'd like to ask how many contributors to the Global warming article agree with the above:
Agree:
Disagree:
Other (such as Ed just made that up, so it's irrelevant):
I am amazed at the lack of understanding on this topic. How many scientists are there in the world? Millions? And the vast majority of those millions of people believe that humans are a significant contributor to global warming? If that is true, I have seen no evidence for it.
What people are trying to say is that the vast majority of climate research organizations have concluded that humans are an important cause. And that has been demonstrated to be correct. It is not correct to assume that the handful of publicized critics represent the whole of the skeptical scientists.
Perhaps one could imagine that out of the body of skeptics in the scientific community, most would remain silent. After all, why should someone risk their reputation and career on this political issue?
Let's frame this problem in terms of statistics. Say we want to sample this group of millions of scientists around the world.
Clearly this is not representative sampling, and this "small minority" conclusion is also original research. Again, I support the assertion that a "small minority of scientific organizations," or a "small minority of scientific opinion" is in disagreement over the causes of global warming, and it's a simple enough assessment to make without a formal study.
Also keep in mind that science can only provide theories, and then try to disprove them. If one considers that the political climate is somewhat hostile to critics of conventional global warming theories, then perhaps one could also conclude that much truly critical research has yet to be done. -- Coopercmu 15:08, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
I still haven't gotten any direct arguments against my point. The article does not use the term "climate scientists," it uses the term "scientists." And regardless of what anyone may think of the financial incentives, it is not representative to look only at the research leaders and organizations. Who's to say that a lot of researchers even working on these studies don't have serious reservations about some of their models? A scientist's job is not to "know" that they are right, it's to come up with new theories and explanations, and to try to disprove other research. And again, I don't think there's been a lot of research that is actually trying to disprove the CO2 causes of global warming. -- Coopercmu 19:53, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
1) No scientist claims that any gasses (classified as "greenhouse" or otherswise) are a source of heat to planet earth. 2) All of science claims that the earth is heated almost entirely by the sun, but does get some small small radiance from geothermal venting. 3) No scientist claims that any gasses (classified as "greenhouse" or otherwise) does anything other than "redistribute" heat (claims include "trap it in" and "block it from escaping") 4) The article leads one to think that humans are not only heating the earth, but that it's the "leading scientific opinion."
Ok, so, I'll use letters to make it simple. So, CO2 only "reflects" type A. You have types A B C D E coming in from the sun. So, A gets reflectd and the rest come in. B C D and E will cause the earth to hit up. The earth produces, from this heat, mostly type A radiation. So, type A radiation is sent out but it gets reflected back in. Is that cool?
(long-live edit conflicts) The greenhouse effect refers to the process whereby energy ultimately derived from the sun is trapped near the surface of the Earth due to the recycling effects of the atmosphere. Most of the heat exchange between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere is accomplished by the ability of greenhouse gases to absorb infrared radiation (the type of radiation given off by all things as a function of their temperature), and so greenhouse gases play an essential role in determining how much energy is trapped near the surface. See figure at right for the relative fluxes involved. At the average mid-latitude location and averaged over a full 24 hours, there is actually more energy transfered from the atmosphere to the Earth's surface than there is recieved directly from the sun. Without the extra energy flux maintained by the greenhouse effect temperatures on Earth would drop more than 30 C. Dragons flight 21:10, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
"Only a small minority of scientists discount the role that humanity's actions have played in recent warming. However, the uncertainty is more significant regarding how much climate change should be expected in the future" ---it compares the "uncertainty" of global change, which is an integral part of any scientifically estimated value, with something very different. I think it should be rephrased. Also, i think the dispute over the climate models is more relevant than the dispute over whether there already is warming. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 82.123.254.123 ( talk • contribs) .
Rather than even have that section at all, the Causes section itself should list up to the (2nd? 3rd? 4th?) largest theories on the causes with a paragraph, each with separate articles for full details, rather than just Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and "everything else" (Alternative theories).
Although the list of alternatives shows 'range of natural variation' 'coming out of a prior cold period' (with link) and 'solar irradiance' the only other theory under Causes with a section and a link to an article of its own is Solar Variation, and even then it uses a different term than in the list.
One problem with the Alternative Theories section is that although it lists three things, then claims there's not much support for any, the solar irradiance/solar variation section afterwards is fairly lengthy and seems at least somewhat supported.
The biggest problem is that the support for the implication that such (or any) alternative opinions being 'not widely held' is made by a reference to the Oreskes essay in Science. There are problems with that essay. It's not primary sources, it's not peer-reviewed, it's not more than an editorial, and it's very unreliable:
The "Causes" section should list the possible causes. -- Sln3412 02:25, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
It is my understanding that the 100,000 year cycles in temperature and carbon dioxide are caused by the changes in the Earth's distance from the Sun. This causes change in the intensity of light, causing change in temperature. This change in temperature then causes changes in carbon dioxide levels. Seeing as how this works in the reverse way that global warming is said to, what would be the mechanism of this? Obviously the ice core graphs show that the industrial age has seen drastically increased carbon dioxide levels and matching temperatures, but how can it be said that this trend will doubtlessly continue if we don't fully understand the graph? If anyone knows of any research that explains this, it might be a good thing to include in the article. Also, a PhD in Marine Biology quoted to me yesterday that approximately 60% of the worlds photosynthesis occurs in the oceans. Marine algaes and planktons would receive all the benefits listed in the "biomass" section with barely any downside. Also, if you look at the 100 million year timescale, the Earth has been much warmer in the past, and the plant life flourished. So, if anyone could find research on these topics, I think they would be great to include. The evidence for global warming is almost indisputable, but the evidence for the unchanging, exponential, apocalyptic nature of global warming is NOT conclusive; the article should reflect this. The supposed effects of the mechanisms listed in the global cooling article also contradict the effects of global warming described in this article. That must be addressed. -- TBSchemer 09:26, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
This may seem to be a flippant devil's advocate, but has anyone looked into any possible positive externalities of global warming? It seems that we, as a world, are running pell-mell into the future despite all the warnings and evidence. I find it hard to believe the world is totally pell-mell, but the global warming problem will probably be fully upon us before any corrections are done. So, how does one use it to our advantage? This counter argument may point to a possible conviction held by some that there could be benefits to global warming and if this is so, what would be the benefit of global warming?
Yeah, temperate climate zones are the most productive agricultarally (contraire to popular belief that tropical are...) and most technologies were developed to deal with these climates (guess why?) If this climates are shifted towards the poles then there will be less area to exploit them.
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I'm confused about something. I don't see how global warming can cause flooding. If anything it would cause a decrease in ocean levels. The reason given for flooding is glaciers melting due to global warming. But if that glacier is already there, it already occupies space in the ocean. In fact, it takes more space as a glacier (ice is less dense then water... if you fill a glass with ice cubes and let it melt, the water will take up less space). So if it were true that GW melts the glaciers, it would actually lower the sea levels.--Republicanbetter (this comment by User:Republicanbetter - use four tildes (~~~~) to sign).
Let's pretend for a couple of milliseconds this entire discussion isn't about money. Now if global warming isn't caused by humans, LET'S SHRINK THE POPULATION and see what happens. You know birth control, talking about overpopulation, allowing abortions, free college education for families with only one kid, you know, easy stuff.
Then if global warming continues, well we have less people we will have to move from the coastlines. If it stops it, well geez I guess all those scientists were right after all. Meanwhile we saved animal habitat, made less pollution, and brought housing prices down.
If you think global warming is a problem don't have kids. If you think global warming isn't a problem don't have kids so you can help prove it's a natural occurance. Attack the real problem, it's easier.
--
Lee Wells
14:00, 1 July 2006 (UTC)
Maybe smart people can adopt kids. That way the kids will be smart too. Because its not the genes people, its the upbringing.
Anon 67. added [3]:
Stephan and I have both removed it but the anon persists. Perhaps its time to talk about it. And its interesting. Firstly, CO2 and T are clearly closely correlated on 100kyr timescales, and you have to work quite hard to decide which leads and which lags (and I'm not really convinced that this is settled; for example [5] says CO2 lagged Ant deglaciation but preceeded NH; this argues for a close corr [6]). But anyway, given the regularity of the ice ages (which argues for an astronomical driver) its pretty likely that T *should* lead CO2 somewhat in the cycle. In current terms, though, we know full well that CO2 is leading. Secondly, I don't see the GW page using this correlation as evidence of CO2-causes-GW, nor do I think its part of the std.IPCC argument.
So somewhere there should be a nice discussion of the lags/lead stuff, by someone who knows about it. But I don't think here is a good place. William M. Connolley 19:08, 2 July 2006 (UTC)
I took out PBs change to the "few" bit: I can't see why its an improvement; I see the comment 'the term significant is so ambiguous that most skeptics probably don't contest it, what they do is discount that significance relative to true believers'; no, I don't believe that: many skeptics would indeed say no-sig-warming-from-co2. More excitingly, I took out the Annan para:
Given that the paper is entitled Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity calling these model-based seems perverse, but part of the campaign I guess. AFAICS the LGM stuff is completely model independent; the volcanic stuff is also largely obs. Calling the results "his subjective judgement" is also odd/wrong. But anyway, this doesn't belong in the climate models section; and probably not in the article at all, though it should (and I assume is) be in the cl sens article William M. Connolley 15:43, 4 July 2006 (UTC)
I'm not quite sure how we're going to proceed here, since you and I have such completely different readings of the same paper. I also think you're being supercillious and patronising in your description of it as a speculative whiteboard analysis - to the contrary, its a deceptively simple analysis, but nonetheless very good. *All* obs, of just about everything - includig a simple thermometer reading - are filtered through a model. That doesn't make it sensible to describe thermometer readins as model based; nor this study as such. It is, as it says it is, primarily observation based. William M. Connolley 15:11, 5 July 2006 (UTC)
Resetting indent. I never said it was a null result. Stephan implied it was only a confirming result, adding nothing new, and that was a reason it shouldn't be published.
I actually have been disputing Stephan on these being valid reasons not to publish. A confirming result by a different method and assumptions is adding something new. In experimental science, even reproduction of important results by the same method, is important publishable confirmation. Where I have agreed with Stephan is on the poor quality and questionable assumptions of the Annan paper. I've just reviewed the Gregory paper, and it is a much better paper. It more openly and clearly discloses its assumptions, methods and exposures to error. Models do play an important role in its estimates of forcings and internal climate variability. It is also a pretty good review of the relevant literature throughout. While disclosing considerable dependency on models, it makes the claim, in one place that it is independent of the climate sensitivity of the model, which is the key component of the climate we are trying to characterize independently. I'm not sure that all uses of the models were independent of the climate models's sensitivity, but it doesn't make that claim. The article will bear a couple re-readings. -- thanx. [9]-- Poodleboy 09:43, 6 July 2006 (UTC)
WMC, wasn't your removal of citation needed premature, we are still discussing whether your proposed cite is apropo or not?-- Poodleboy 11:53, 6 July 2006 (UTC)
As I said, its cited to the clim sens article. don't clutter up the GW article with unnecessary tags William M. Connolley 13:47, 6 July 2006 (UTC)
please update this article to reflect the facts please---
Am-
j4th
22:11, 4 July 2006 (UTC)
This could perhaps be mentioned here Count Iblis 10:31, 5 July 2006 (UTC)
FWIW -- I agree with Allen. And Arker. And Poodleboy. Not to muddy the waters any, but it seems to me in my opinion there's not much consensus going on. But of course, anyone in science that has a published opinion on this subject in a reputable source that can be a citation must be correct, and of course they are all unbiased and free from outside influences of any kind. Just remember; lead and lag are related to temperature. Everything's 90° in here. Just my 2¢ though. Don't £ it into me, please! -- Sln3412 05:45, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
An anonymous editor added this parenthetical remark in the list of scientists... link. Actually *in* the link, so it broke the link, so I took it back out. However, the intention behind it seems good. Science isn't a matter of headcounts and voting, that's politics, and the two need to be kept separated. Beyond that, it's not only a disparaging comment, it's has an almost stalinist or inquisitorial ring to it - anyone that dares question the theory needs to be kept on a special list? Plus it open a huge can of worms as to how you count 'scientist' and so on.
Frankly it adds nothing relevant to the article, unless you think a hint of stalinism is relevant, but that should go in an article on the politics, not the science. Probably the whole paragraph could be deleted. At the very least it needs a significant rewrite. Thoughts? Arker 20:18, 7 July 2006 (UTC)
PBs comment above is nonsense. The albedo difference is fine; the implied effect on climate sensitivity is wrong; and is PBs own original research William M. Connolley 07:17, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Here's a big one that bears mentioning, only 30 years old from Newsweek: [11]. Global cooling didn't pan out politically, so now they scare us with global warming to get our votes and our money. Professor Chaos 06:41, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
In case you don't know we might need to add a controversy section on Global Warming, as this article [12] explains the positiveness of Global Warming. We might ned to put some pro-warming views here, and also may show how difficult it is to eliminate Global Warming. Falconleaf 18:44 11 July 2006 (UTC)
...at a first glance. But anyways, discussing a political hack essay which is out of date and cites no sources is a waste of time. It adds nothing to the discussion. If you think otherwise, I can write a few that are at least not wrong... -- Stephan Schulz 23:48, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
You know whats "crap"? Politicizing science. Only this page has so many people going against the consensus. There is another page in wiki which deals with other consequences of anthro CO2 (if I name it, they will start annoying there too...) It also expresses the scientific concensus but the discussion page, well, it only has one sentence. No body seems to care about the scientific concensus there! No body vandalizes that page becuase that particular aspect of anthro CO2 has not been touched upon the media as much. If this were a science debate driven solely by scientific interest and the care to promote good info, both pages should have the same amount of dialogue, but they dont because its a political debate. As a matter of fact, not even the funded groups touch upon this...
Discredited how? Arker 10:12, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
I re-fixed the line "threat of possible global warming" to "threat of global warming". I made this change before, this is why: I think it is clear in the connotation of the word 'threat' that we aren't dealing with absolute truth, ie, this is the predicted future, which by definition means we don't know what will happen.
I think these kinds of word insertions muddle the intended meaning of the offending sentance. I think it is clear this kind of language is commonly used by denialists to overemphasize the inherint uncertainty of dealing with a scientific topic. I think it is sufficient to discuss these inherint uncertainties in a stand alone section without having to muddle the language of the entire article as if we were talking about someone accused of a crime. (as in: "Then the alleged gunman shot the victim") Thanks. -- 141.212.142.247 17:43, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Moved the following from article for discussion:
You know whats sad, congress calling Chrichton to talk about global warming (with gray.) Wow, two EXPERTS...
Seems we need peer reviewed sources rather than www.crichton-official.com and Wall Street Journal essays. The senate committee bit may deserve a note, but would rather see papers cited from those four skeptics. Vsmith 20:30, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Mr. Schulz, perhaps you can tell us your scientific qualifications to be commenting on climate sciences, paleo-climatology, etc., or is it just your opinion here? Dr. JJ 22:30, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Dr. JJ
It seems to me that Stephan Schulz doesn't need any qualifications to make the above comments, just what my old high school english classes called "clear thinking". One doesn't need a science degree to analize the validity of competing arguments, expecially when one side has an ever growing body of scientific work behind it. One argument I have always found convincing is that I know that global warming skeptics usually have a clear self interest for their position - they wish to maintain current business practices and lifestyle options. I have never been able to identify a self interest behind the position of the other side. -- Michael Johnson 23:06, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
I asked because Dr. Schulz seems to be disregarding Dr. Crichton and Dr. Lindzen, an MD takes numerous science courses in college and has an excellent working knowledge of the scientific method and principles, thus is scientifically qualified to state his position on these issues. Dr. Lindzen is a world class climate expert with hundreds of publications (most in peer reviewed journals) [24]that is quite impressive, he is also an excellent teacher and speaker, as is Dr. Crichton perhaps you should do more research on your own before you continue to comment with your opinions. If you are not impressed with Dr. Lindzen, a list of my publications and awards will not impress you either, and you will find some other reason to degrade my input, so it is definitely not worth the risk to try and impress you. Dr. JJ 23:33, 18 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
I don't much like the turn this conversation has taken. I'd like to encourage everyone to focus their comments on the content of the scientific arguments rather than the contributors and their qualifications. Dragons flight 23:42, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
Dr. Schulz, and Dragons Flight, if you think Lindzen has not published peer reviewed research on global warming, perhaps you missed these citations in the link I provided to his hundreds of publications:
203. Lindzen, R.S. and C. Giannitsis (2002) Reconciling observations of global temperature change. Geophys. Res. Ltrs. 29, (26 June) 10.1029/2001GL014074 [pdf]
204. Lindzen, R.S. (2002a) Do Deep Ocean Temperature Records Verify Models? Geophys. Res. Ltrs., 29, 10.1029/2001GL014360. [pdf]
206. Chou, M.-D., R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002a) Impact of Albedo Contrast between Cirru and Boundary-Layer Clouds on Climate Sensitivity. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2, 99-101.
207. Lindzen, R.S., M.-D. Chou, and A.Y. Hou (2002) Comments on "No evidence for iris." Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 83, 1345-1348. [pdf]
208. Chou, M.-D., R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002) Reply to: "Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2, 99-101. [pdf]
209. Chou, M.-D., R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002b) Comments on "The Iris hypothesis: A negative or positive cloud feedback?" J. Climate, 15, 2713-2715. [pdf]
210. Bell, T. L., M.-D. Chou, R.S. Lindzen, and A.Y. Hou (2002) Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?" Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 83, 598-600. [pdf]
I think you will find they all make contributions to global warming attribution hypotheses and alternatives to AGW.
And if all you need is some of my work incorporated into the Wiki on this subject, it already has been, so done. Dr. JJ 12:53, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ Also, If you reject Dr. Crichton due the "nonsense" he writes about this subject, could it be you think it to be "nonsense" since you disagree with it? I don't think that to be a definition of nonsense, you should be honest and say that you disagree. I also think some of what is said on these pages I totally disagree with, but I would not call it nonsense as that is not appropriate, as many are people's opinions and they are entitled to them, and if they have qualifications in that particular science, they are qualified opinions, others are, of course, just opinions. Dr. JJ 13:01, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
Indeed Loud, and that is a whole other conversation and complaint I have as well. I have been on both ends, and you must carefully pick your "peers" if you want to get by with being opinionated by slipping some comments in your summary that the research doesn't support, it is done often with AGW papers I find. Most research is straightforward and simple, probably 95%, but when AGW hit the press back in the 1990s, and the "policy" oriented political scientists and lay people took over, it became a quagmire for scientists to navigate, but I will get off my soapbox now, sorry. Dr. JJ 18:43, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
I am sorry you doubt me, I could say the same (but won't), but in my experience with the 8 different journals I have both been a peer reviewer and had my material reviewed, I am routinely asked by the editors and staff who would be likely candidates, as bikeable says, I think it depends on the subjects and journals, JGR-AGU is less opaque than GSA and JSR for instance. 67.10.168.145 20:29, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
This is one of my favorite examples of peer reviewed research that has editorial opinion content that was not peer reviewed (since it was not part of the research presented), yet that editorial opinion is what gets this article noticed in the popular media (like an AP story). The research in the paper has nothing to do with modern AGW, yet that is the headline. This is also the type of article that Ms. Oreskes cited as supporting the consensus on AGW. [25] 64.12.116.72 21:25, 19 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
Here's how the discussion always seems to go. This was published in a reputable journal. Oh, and where do they get their funding? But it's published. How is an essay any different than an op-ed? That's a biased paper. So is yours. Everyone agrees. There are plenty that don't. They are nut-jobs. Here's their qualifications. Ours have better ones. They didn't say where how they got their data exactly. The recreation included too much data. It's a bigger set and they got less. But they said it was the same. How does that invalidate their information? You're biased. No, you are. This was peer reviewed. What makes their peers less biased than they are. But they were published. (go back to start) -- Sln3412 23:32, 19 July 2006 (UTC)
Exactamundo, thus this "discussion" format provides little to the issue. On a more important note, the US Congress has finally provided it's analysis of the Famous and Infamous Mann Hockey stick, by real math and stats experts, not too surprising Mann was off base and biased here: [26] Dr. JJ 14:57, 20 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ
The author is NOT arguing that the "consensus view" of global warming is accurate or not, which is what everyone seems to be arguing about (that and each other's qualifications). The author is arguing that there do exist "scientists and thinkers" that disagree with consensus global warming, and even if you take out Crichton, by listing Bob Carter, Roy Spencer, Tim Ball, and Lindzen -- 3 climatology professors and a principal research scientist -- as skeptics, the author proves that not all climatologists agree. This doesn't even seem debateable. Dr. Schultz, even you must admit that there exist climatologists who disagree with the commonly held view of global warming. -- Jason little 19:25, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
I'd highly suggest changing "theory" to "hypothesis" in nearly all (if not all) cases on this page. These two words have strict definitions in science, and various computer "models" of global warming do not fit "theory" but rather "hypothesis." A theory has to be based on a model that accurately and consistently predicts (without failure) outcomes of future experiments or situations. Global warming "models" have not done this. I'm not going to go through and change each one now, but Wikipedia is doing a disservice to keep the word "theory" in these cases. Superdoggy 05:11, 14 July 2006 (UTC)
Man, does the name Svante Arrhenius ring a bell? That is when it all started. So to state that it started today is just crazy!
I'm gone. No point contributing when Raul654's arbitrary assessment of content is unchecked. Bye.-- Poodleboy 09:28, 15 July 2006 (UTC)
(attack removed)
John, even though others may have "started it", I agree with VSmith that you went too far here. Please review Wikipedia:Avoid personal remarks.
William, you too: saying "is indeed mighty" was a provocation.
Let's all stick to the subject, which is how to improve this article. Which is going to take all our concerted effort, because it's already "better than good", being a Wikipedia:Featured article. -- Uncle Ed 18:54, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Further questions? -- Stephan Schulz 21:33, 17 July 2006 (UTC)
I see, I think I know the kind of person I am dealing with here, thank you for the insights.—The preceding unsigned comment was added by Dr. JJ ( talk • contribs) .
As a side note, I've always been impressed and humbled by the credentials of the several users who upkeep this particular page. Most of them make my B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences seem piddly by comparison. EWS23 ( Leave me a message!) 00:16, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
Sorry, but when you are a prof seeking tenure in a liberal (is there any other kind?) university, you dare not be ID'ed with something as controversial as not "believing" in the dogma and almost "Big Lie" properties of AGW. There is much federal and state research money to lose and old line liberal full profs to upset if you question the political correctness of AGW, so I must remain anon I'm afraid, and I am. Dr. JJ 03:21, 18 July 2006 (UTC)Dr. JJ Dr. JJ 03:21, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
I am not saying the majority (if it really exists, since the last survey I took at AGU showed a majority didn't think humans were the primary cause, and there has been no objective survey since then, which is curious in itself) is wrong, but as a scientist I follow the scientific mthod and principles. Part of those principles require rigor and internal data consistency. Most of the research I have seen are just small, narrow studies that do not prove CO2-Temp attribution, but rather imply a relationship between rising CO2 and temps, at least since 1975 or so, since temps were falling and CO2 rising from 1945-1975. These kind of data inconsistencies, plus lack of rigor in considering records from the Vostok cores that show large time lags between CO2 and temps, as well as CO2 rising after temps go up, not before, as well as hundreds of other pieces of data that don't fit AGW as the primary cause. I think this require more hypothesis modifications and research and debate. However, the political climate makes it difficult to fully discuss these problems and uncertainty since the left wants to move to action and shout down skeptics, and the right wants to ignore everything. Scientists are also political animals with opinions, and that also makes it hard for skeptics like myself to be heard, since most scientists are also environmenatlists who believe humans are bad for the earth. The Big Lie aspects of this are clear when the politically organized pushes come in coordinated pulses from time to time. We have just been through one with Gore's film, many others came out of the woodwork pushing the "lie". As the Nazi's knew, for the Big Lie to work it must be horrible and scary, it must be black and white with no doubt, and it must be said, screamed and repeated over and over until the population's mind is numbed and they accept it without question aznd repeat it to others. Look at this debate and see if you don't see these elements.—Preceding unsigned comment added by Dr. JJ ( talk • contribs)
Could some of the participants here add Image:Carbon Dioxide 400kyr-2.png to their watchlist. It suddenly seems that people are eager to add elaborate criticisms to this figure. I'm not opposed to criticism, in principle, but the arguments being used are mostly original research and not reflective of the realities and context of the data. Dragons flight 15:05, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
I came across the CO2 image, as I was looking for a graph closest to the one that Gore showed in his slide show. Personally, I think that the one that is up now is too cluttered -- the different colors and dotted lines make it look as if the last section of the graph is not really a part of the graph at all, but just a projection, hypothesis, or something like that. This completely takes away from the point of the graph, which shows how much higher CO2 is now than ever in the Earth's history. Also, the huge box in the middle about the industrial revolution is not really necessary: it just adds a confusingly re-scaled timeline, and has led (understandably) to charges of POV. The spike in the graph is more readable without the box, and the interpretation is self-explanatory (and, anyway, whould be explained in the text).
I made a draft of the graph without the box, changes in colors, dotted lines and so on. It's only a draft, so it can be modified, but I think it's better than the current graph. If people are worried that not having the colors will mean that the different sections aren't cited, that's no problem: as it is now, one has to go to the image file to see the citations anyway, so it would be easy just to add the cited image to the text of the new image file.
What do people think? — Asbestos | Talk (RFC) 19:58, 19 July 2006 (UTC)
Rather than get into a discussion on scientists thinking xyz or if CO2 causes temperature rises or vice versa, or if it's even important.
"Population growth due to increased carbon dioxide levels from plants has allowed even better farming methods to feed the planet's hungry. This has resulted in the sweat of cattle increasing water vapor in the atmosphere to the point where the Earth can no longer release enough heat. That is the direct cause of the warming of the Earth over the last two hundred years." Sorry.
I do have to say that out off all the graphs that Dragons Flight has contributed; this one, contrary to popular opinion, is the only one I've ever had an issue with. That said, there is no problem with showing the levels, or marking the ice ages, or even with the colors. The box is okay also, but probably is far better as a separate graph. Taking the temperatures and overlaying them on the CO2 is a good idea also, but not replacing one with the other, I don't think. One thing I think we might notice from all this. Regardless of the data, the X/Y axis, scale, sampling period all tell a story. A 10,000 year graph from -10 to +10 averaged by decade is quite different from 1,000 years in the middle of that same data from -2 to +4 averaged by century. Current readings, or different measurements are very difficult to correlate.
In any case, the only problem I've had, is that the comment in the box doesn't fit. The second paragraph under 'Description' on the Image page seems rather POV also. "Since the Industrial Revolution, circa 1800, the burning of fossil fuels has caused a dramatic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, reaching levels unprecedented in the last 400 thousand years. This increase has been implicated as a primary cause of global warming."
Yes, the observed increase has been implicated as one of the primary causes of Global Warming, and yes, fossil fuels contribute to CO2 levels, and yes, CO2 levels tell us we should be far into an ice age. As to when "The Industrial Revolution" began, if burning fossil fuels caused the dramatic increase, or any of the other things, that's a subject far too large to go into in a graph, even if we could verify and/or prove any of it. -- Sln3412 07:29, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
From design and communication perspectives the original diagram is more effective. When viewing the diagram, the first information that jumps out is the increase in concentrations after 1800. This is not POV, it is reality. The data below then provides context by plotting values over the prior 400 ka. The use of colour is actually well crafted, it allows the reader to identify the various sources of data. -- 72.57.116.125 20:27, 20 July 2006 (UTC) J. Hamilton
Meh, it looks like only a couple other people think the box should go. That's fine, if that's the pervailing conclusion. I'll delete the draft. — Asbestos | Talk (RFC) 13:45, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
This article has bloated to 61k. Anyone else agree it should be reduced in size? William M. Connolley 18:59, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
I think the "small minority of scientists" needs to be cited by an outside source. The fact that there is a compiled list of scientists who have publically disagreed with its root causes is useful, but this is by no means a determination of the opinions of the world's scientists.
I would think the only objective way to qualify this is with poll results; otherwise this sounds like original research. If the existing "List of scientists opposing global warming consensus" article is intended to suffice, that is inappropriate. While the information compiled in that article is from outside sources, the attempt to aggregate its results to represent a small minority of the entire world's scientific community is not only incorrect, but it would represent original research. -- Coopercmu 19:57, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
-- JohnCPope 18:44, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Did you read the graph right?
Getting back to Asbestos's comment: you are echoing the liberal, pro-GW point of view there as opposed to objective fact. I would venture to say that it's actually quite rare for the media to give a balanced presentation on GW. It's slanted more than 85% in favor of GW theories, near as I can tell. And I can't recall a single instance of a major news outlet (like NYT or BBC) saying that "scientists are divided" on the issue.
The media generally cite the UN's IPCC as authoritative and objective - and ignore complaints that the SPM is re-written by politicians to fit their pre-conceived notions.
And when was the last time you saw a newspaper or magazine article criticizing Mann's Hockey Stick graph (and the reliance laymen and politicians place on it)? Or highlighting the 1,500-year-cycle theory espoused by Fred Singer et al.? And where have you ever seen Sallie Baliunas's graph correlating solar variation to temperature proxies?
It's a liberal canard that there's any anti-Liberal bias in the media (they say that corporate ownership implies pro-conservative bias, but the evidence is to the contrary). The New York Times is owned by liberals, and the BBC isn't a private corporation. -- Uncle Ed 19:08, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Why would an editor accept an article that shows something that everyone in the field already knows?
I just received a comment that my edits to include mention of a controversy regarding "global warming" should only be mentioned in the "global warming controversy" article. This is a foul. It appears that anyone reading the article on global warming should not be told that there is a controversy. He or she needs to stumble upon that fact by accident. First of all, the article should be called "Global Warming Theories." Also, the theories in the article are not presented as theories, but as fact. Somewhere in the article there should be a disclaimer that the scientific research included in the article is simply data, ...lots of good data, but data notheless, from which many different people have legitimately drawn very different conclusions. Also, the article should clearly state that there is still more data needed for any conclusion to be, well, conclusive. Thus it should be clear that the scientific community is NOT at all in agreement on any one theory or conclusion, especially to include whether humans have any effect at all, negligible effect, noticeable effect, substantial effect, or the entire effect. Also, the article should definitely not be claiming that there is some "prevalent scientific opinion" (this is political agenda-speak). At *THIS* point there should be a link to the "Global Warming Controversy." As it stands, the article serves only as a sort of minor propaganda to push a the reader to a particular viewpoint rather than simply providing comprehensive information. I know there are many "doom and gloom" people who believe the earth will end if we don't abolish all the earth's factories and petroleum refineries, and that viewpoint should *ALSO* be reflected as one of many conclusion in an overall spectrum. Since virtually all conclusions on the matter are based on some scientific data, it is just wrong to claim, or even imply, that any one viewpoint is the scientifically correct one...until, of course, some conclusive data is obtained.
-- Coopercmu 19:31, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
I don't much like references at the end of an article myself (2 clicks, not one) but 3 reviewers seem to have asked for it. It would seem like spoiling the ship for a hapeth of tar if we don't do it and thus fail to get this made a FA. The FA guidelines Wikipedia:What is a featured article? also say a FA should have a "References" section where the references are set out, complemented where appropriate by inline citations (see Wikipedia:Citing sources). For articles with footnotes or endnotes, the meta:cite format is strongly encouraged" So I have 3 questions for people.
But do keep going - I think we are nearly there, don't be downhearted now.-- NHSavage 21:49, 8 May 2006 (UTC)
I had a go at doing some automated reference fixing - just all the inline web references. It could still use some tidying, but it's a start. Sandbox version at User:Leland_McInnes/Global_warming_references. -- Leland McInnes 02:16, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
I strongly dislike the ref format & like the inline links. So I've reverted back to the pre-ref version. Sorry about all the wasted work but this question has a loooong history and was settled in favour of in-line ages ago. I also disagree with converting the links just to make FA people happy. Harvard style is OK though. William M. Connolley 07:38, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
If getting to FA means swapping to "ref" format, then FA is broken, and I see no reason to go for it. William M. Connolley 09:26, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
All citations formatted Judgesurreal777 10:06, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
So let's try to come to an agreement ;-). This may also be something of a cultural clash. In my field of computer science, we use footnotes (normally numbered) for details and side remarks. We use references into the bibliography for attribution. Such references can be numbered [1], [2], they can be name+date (Schulz and Connolley, 2006), (SlimVirgin et al., 2006) (I guess that's what is called Harvard style), or, probaby the most frequent case, they use a short reference key [SC06], [SJ+06]. We do not use footnotes for references, something that seems to be frequent for the humanities.
What now makes me somewhat leaning towards a unified system using <ref> are two points.
So what are the objective disadvantages of this system (apart from personal dislike and unfamilarity)? I see one:
-- Stephan Schulz 10:59, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
Having thought very hard about this one I am in agreement here. I know it is not perfect but I think the combination of citation methods we use at the moment is even worse. I don't think any other way of unifying the citations works and I still don't think it is possible to sensibly use Harvard style for URLs. I think we should adopt <ref>-- NHSavage 11:05, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
Looks like someone is in a hurry - assuming consensus after only a few hours of limited debate, we don't all op in the same time zone :-) As SlimVirgin said Harvard and embedded link style is acceptable - and is my preference. For a FA enthusiast to jump in and help by doing a unilateral convert without consensus is absurd. I strongly dislike the notes style of a numbered list and I rather dislike FA enthusiasts jumping in to modify an article to fit their mold. If footnotes are required for FA - then we don't need FA. Judgesurreal777 please take a look at the history and the arbcomm decision last winter relating to this. Vsmith 11:17, 9 May 2006 (UTC)
I've just resurrected this discussion because I noticed that the issue of dead links had not been given any consideration. Templates such as {{ cite web}} provide additional information in the article that can be used to find a source again if its link changes, or if it is removed from one of several mirror sites. Any comments? - Samsara ( talk • contribs) 13:14, 27 June 2006 (UTC)
Here are some more examples of the conversion script: [30] [31] [32] [33]. - Samsara ( talk • contribs) 09:48, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
Just thought the folks who follow this talk page might be interested - I just dropped by, noticed the ref style, and started poking a little. Noticed that the References section includes <references/>, but didn't see any <ref>-style footnotes. Hmmm. Had the thought that maybe I could contribute some copyediting, and convert the refs to <ref>s (having done a lot of that lately). Went to the discussion page to (1) see if anybody'd registered any opinions on the subject and (2) if not, ask the community, to see if folks thought it would be okay to do so. Found this thread. Read it. Went "oh", and went back to minding my own business.
For the record, though, I do find the current ref style hard to use. Seeing a [1] style ref, and a list of references at the bottom of the article, it's a lot of work to discover if the number corresponds to any of the references and, if so, which one. For all of its disadvantages, <ref> does make it easier for the reader in this sense.
Oh, and congrats on FA! -- Waitak 06:16, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
I want to argue against the theory that we are the cause of global warming and climate change. Considering the Earth is billions of years old, I have a hard time believing that humans could be the cause of this phenomenon. If this hasn't already happened before, then how did the Ice Age end? The Earth was in a state of extreme cold, then it warms up again, a prime example of climate change. The Ice Age happened before humans could burn fuel or pollute the environment significantly, so the only logical explanation is that the Earth went through this process before, unaffected by humans. Humans are animals and are a part of nature just like any other living thing on this Earth, which means we are just something else living under the Earth's atmosphere. The Earth itself has been and is more powerful than any little organism that could ever dare to stand against Her. Proof of that is in the fact that we are still struck dumb at the forces She produces, and we are still at Her mercy, not the other way around. Wolfranger 13:06, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
Oh, we can change the earth... I always use chernobyl as an example, but in 10 years, I'll be using global warming...
Exactly. Anyone who beleives in Global warming has NO common sense. The earth goes in cycles, people! Take the Ice Age, how did it melt down? This "Global Warming" Phenomenon. It's natural, people. Calm down. 65.12.134.148 12:07, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
As for Anon (65.12.134.148)... He appears to have learned everything he knows about climate change from Sid and Manny. -- Oscar Bravo 12:12, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
I am not saying global warming isn't happening, because it is. I just don't believe humans can cause such an enormous phenomenon. One question I have, how can scientists attribute it to humans? Sure, we give off alot of carbon dioxide. But, carbon dioxide is a natural gas. Humans give it off naturally as a waste product through respiration. Plants absorb it and make oxygen. But, other animals give off carbon dioxide as well as a result of respiration. Carbon dioxide has been released into the atmosphere since life first appeared on Earth, which means global warming could be attributed to just another natural cause. Wolfranger 15:50, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
I see your point, Stephan. Wolfranger 13:17, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
The only reason that there is any controversy about the causes of Global Warming is that, if it is caused by human activity, we have a responsibility to do something about it. Unfortunately, "doing something about it" probably means reducing CO2 emissions, which means things like clean power generation, less oil use, smaller cars, and generally adding costs to industrialists who were getting along just fine until all this pesky environmentalism came along. Pretending it isn't happening or assuming it's nothing to do with us, means business as usual and no risk to the gravy train. -- Oscar Bravo 07:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Into the fray - An Alternative Theory - Considering that the earth's tilt on her axis produces significant seasonal changes it becomes obvious that incremental changes in the earth's orbit would have long term effects upon climate. This research (cited below) proposes answers left unexplained by Milankovitch_cycles. - The Orbital Variance Theory © (used with permission) [ [34]] suggests that the actual length of a year varies (over the eons) by as much as 5 days (fluctuating 2.5 days on either side of the mean year) and that the variance is caused by the gradual expansion and contraction of the Earth's orbit over hundreds of millions of years (a natural process). The orbital variances gradually (and cyclically) decrease and increase (over eons) the distance of the earth from the sun. The result is that the length of a day remains constant (Earth's daily axis rotation), however, the length of a year (Earth's orbit of the sun) varies depending upon where we are within the orbital cycle (closer or farther from the sun). - The astronomical measurements that we have used to determine the length of a year have been taken within a very small window of about 2000 years (introduction of the solar calendar). We presume that our astronomical measurements of the length of a year are constants. Presently, according to the theory, the earth's orbit is in a 'contracting phase' with global warming as a natural result (the expanding orbital phase produces Ice Ages). The Orbital Variance Theory © is 'continuing original research' and, therefore, not 'verifiable' for inclusion in the main article. . John Charles Webb 20:46, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
- Other areas that are worthy of investigating are: 1) the growing contribution of aviation to Global Warming [ [35]] and 2) deforestation and the diminshing rain forests [ [36]] John Charles Webb 20:46, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Vocal Eco-nazis insist on hijacking this article for a liberal political agenda. I don't see how this can be stopped, other than to delete and edit whenever the politics are reinserted. -- JohnCPope 13:56, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
Cut:
Ha, 3.5% on top of the equilibrium quantity... That doubles the equilibrium quantity in roughly 21 years...
I don't think the article has enough about these two points:
Urban heat island effect in the north and south poles...?
I've seen some web sites which illustrate CO2 increases coming after temperature increases. Anyone else seen these? Friends of science. Funded by Exxon. Assume its true, explain the mechanism. I say assume because its not.
And how much analysis has been done by the opposing GW theory camps on UH Islands affecting the surface record? -- Uncle Ed 20:27, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
Another observation: the time when the remaining sceptics start crapping their pants about GW and wishing they'd figured it out sooner might be nearer than they think...
Independent - 'Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert'.
Rd232
talk
21:59, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
Hello - I edited a section of global warming trying to give some criticism of the "established belief" yet it was reverted back soon after I did the edit. The reasons you gave for reverting it was that it was unsourced and really did not justify contradicting the established view on global warming. I apologize for the former since I'm not sure how exactly I was to go about citing it, but for the latter I am quite appalled. Here are some links you might find interesting (almost all from scientific, peer-reviewed magazines):
http://pages.towson.edu/mroberge/hydro/McKendry2003.pdf That report goes into the Urban Heat Island effect and explicitly says towards the end that the scientists attempt to re-adjust temperatures for it might be too simplistic. That being said, the adjusted temperatures to see the true effect of greenhouse gases on global mean temperatures might not be correct. In other words, the global warming we are experiencing could be due to an error in adjusting measurements from the Urban Heat Island effect.
http://www.richel.org/theodoc/pdf/ClimChange2004.pdf This is a report on the Greenland Ice Sheet. For the first half of the twentieth century, it underwent a warming trend but since 1940 it has been going through a slight cooling trend. Since the mid-1980's, that cooling trend has become more dramatic. Moreover, Greenland is having a net increase of ice mass.
http://search.epnet.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&an=6061747 This article brings up two strong points: the West Antarctica sheet is having a net GAIN of ice each year AND Antarctica has recently reversed a melting trend that has been going on for the past few thousand years.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/308/5730/1898 This is an abstract from a Science article that brings up one strong point: East Antarctica is gaining ~45 billion tons of ice a year.
http://www.npr.org/programs/morning/features/2002/jan/antarctica/020118.antarctica.html This is a nice article from a left leaning organization, NPR. It throws the idea out of the water that Antarctica is gaining ice due to global warming because over the past few decades Antarctica has been getting COLDER like Greenland. Therefore, with the information I've given you so far, the two places that contain the most ice on Earth are getting colder and gaining ice - pretty good indication that global warming might not be all that a lot of scientists are making it out to be.
http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=204020211&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=17210&RQT=309&VName=PQD Finally, this article talks about the Sahara desert and how, instead of growing and getting hotter due to global warming, it is in fact RETREATING. Strange that is happening when global warming is definitely happening.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D_lrg.gif Finally, here's a mean temperature graph of the United States since 1880. If you see, the recent increase in temperature is not disimiliar from the one in the late 1920's through 1930's. Oddly enough, as carbon dioxide emissions were increasing from 1940-1970, the temperature was decreasing.
I'd also like to note that if you search for temperature graphs on NASA's website, the stations in or near larger cities show the most dramatic trends of getting hotter. Many other graphs show not much change or even cooling. Urban Island Heat effect maybe? Anyway, I hope the evidence I've given you might give you an idea for why I am at least skeptical about the idea that humans are affecting global warming by emitting more carbon dioxide than what naturally should be emitted. —Preceding unsigned comment added by DrLove829 ( talk • contribs)
Granted, it comes from what some people claim to be a left-leaning news source, but that would if anything give more credit to the facts they give since those on the left tend to be more passionate about global warming. Anyway, my point with that article is that it does make sense for Antarctica to gain ice as the temperature increases (more precipitation), but since Antarctica as a whole is decreasing in temperature, that puts to suspect the idea that Antarctica is gaining ice because it's getting colder.
Wikipedia articles should be presenting facts, and should not be a forum for anyone's political opinion. Much data has been collected, and so data is fine to be presented. There are many theories based on the data, therefore varying theories so based on the data, are fair game to be mentioned, but not promoted, especially as anything other than someone's theory based on data. The article should mention that there is controversy and link to a contoversy article.
It is a foul to claim that any theory is "the prevailing scientific theory" because 1) there isn't one, 2)that wording is simply political agenda-speak, and 3) it converts the article into a politcal forum pushing that one theory.
To Uncle Ed: Please do not pretend to "chastize" me about "personal attacks" in the talk page. This article has fallen victim to petty political agendas and you really aren't helping much. The politics need to be removed, and to that end, I will call a spade a spade. If you wish to help, you should be calling all those onto the carpet who have watched some Geenpeace documentary and now insist on converting this Wikipedia article into whatever their brainwashed minds have been told to repeat. If there is data on global warming then that should be presented in the article. If you are playing "let's vote on which theories we should present as legitimate, then you aren't helping. -- JohnCPope 13:19, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
DF wrote: Nearly the entire scientific community agrees on the basic outline of anthropogenic global warming
Well, according to Benny Peiser's literature search, it's less than 3 percent. So, where are you getting "nearly the entire scientific community" from? I'm going to put that in as "fairly describe the dispute". -- Uncle Ed 16:06, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
The sky is blue, pigs cannot fly, Peiser is a hack, and the IPCC and other national and international organizations express the consensus view on the topic of global warming. How does wikipedia respond when the less well informed descend and attempt to inflict their reality. Is it possible to set up a wiki or similar site for the reality challenged? -- 205.189.26.38 16:25, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
I think you just made the point about being reality challenged. You have to decide what literature you are going to read, if you are going to get your information on this topic from falacy follies, Benny Peiser, Bob Carter, Tim Ball, and similar luminaries the subject matter will never come together for you. Fortunately there is an extensive literature of credible information available. This article reflects that literature. If you have a specific point to make there are several regular contributors here that could address it. The shotgun approach will not get a serious reply. J Hamilton-- 72.57.116.125 05:11, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
Reality challenged? All the graphs shown in this article - CO2 is my favorite - show co2 has had peaks long before man made an appearance ( or his cars, etc ). These graphs all seem to have the same peaks,etc - nonscientific terminology, sorry - this seems to be long term cyclic type phenomenon. Politically correct thinking doesn't fit too well with events that happen over millenium. I believe, in 1974 we were told we were going to all freeze to death - now we are going to boil to death. I suspect we will neither boil or freeze to death - but that is how I interrupt the last few million years worth of data. Al Gore probably doesn't think the same, but if he could be Pres by singing global freezing, I wonder what he would do and his friends who know reality so well.
Ed, you wrote: The bulk of research money goes to supporting a scientific opinion on climate change promated by the UN's IPCC, that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities" [37]. Apart from the fact that the reference is wrong for your claim, so are both the assumptions and the implied logic of the whole sentence. Do you have any source for the primary claim? What do you even include as "research money"? Public research money as given by the NFS in the US, the DFG in Germany, and similar institutions is not given to "support a view", but to perform a research project. If we know the outcome beforehand, no study will be funded. But even assuming your questionable premisses about the distribution of the money: What do you expect? Give a large number of equal grants to a group of competent scientists and tell them to investigate the shape of the earth. Most of the studies will come out with "approximately oblate spheroid" or maybe even "roughly spherical". Note how flat earther can claim that "of course that's the result - see how most of the money went to spherists". -- Stephan Schulz 16:30, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
- a) There are many scientists who claim that many other scientists are mistaken about their thoeries - b) all funded scientific research has an interest in marketing their own legitimately scientifically-based, yet incompatible and competing, theories - c) outside the scientific community, yes, there is one prevalently popular humano-centered opinion All of the above is being disguised and intermixed into the article, and I think it is unfair to anyone who might happen to read the article in an attempt to acquire some unbiased information. -- JohnCPope 18:39, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
I'd like to ask how many contributors to the Global warming article agree with the above:
Agree:
Disagree:
Other (such as Ed just made that up, so it's irrelevant):
I am amazed at the lack of understanding on this topic. How many scientists are there in the world? Millions? And the vast majority of those millions of people believe that humans are a significant contributor to global warming? If that is true, I have seen no evidence for it.
What people are trying to say is that the vast majority of climate research organizations have concluded that humans are an important cause. And that has been demonstrated to be correct. It is not correct to assume that the handful of publicized critics represent the whole of the skeptical scientists.
Perhaps one could imagine that out of the body of skeptics in the scientific community, most would remain silent. After all, why should someone risk their reputation and career on this political issue?
Let's frame this problem in terms of statistics. Say we want to sample this group of millions of scientists around the world.
Clearly this is not representative sampling, and this "small minority" conclusion is also original research. Again, I support the assertion that a "small minority of scientific organizations," or a "small minority of scientific opinion" is in disagreement over the causes of global warming, and it's a simple enough assessment to make without a formal study.
Also keep in mind that science can only provide theories, and then try to disprove them. If one considers that the political climate is somewhat hostile to critics of conventional global warming theories, then perhaps one could also conclude that much truly critical research has yet to be done. -- Coopercmu 15:08, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
I still haven't gotten any direct arguments against my point. The article does not use the term "climate scientists," it uses the term "scientists." And regardless of what anyone may think of the financial incentives, it is not representative to look only at the research leaders and organizations. Who's to say that a lot of researchers even working on these studies don't have serious reservations about some of their models? A scientist's job is not to "know" that they are right, it's to come up with new theories and explanations, and to try to disprove other research. And again, I don't think there's been a lot of research that is actually trying to disprove the CO2 causes of global warming. -- Coopercmu 19:53, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
1) No scientist claims that any gasses (classified as "greenhouse" or otherswise) are a source of heat to planet earth. 2) All of science claims that the earth is heated almost entirely by the sun, but does get some small small radiance from geothermal venting. 3) No scientist claims that any gasses (classified as "greenhouse" or otherwise) does anything other than "redistribute" heat (claims include "trap it in" and "block it from escaping") 4) The article leads one to think that humans are not only heating the earth, but that it's the "leading scientific opinion."
Ok, so, I'll use letters to make it simple. So, CO2 only "reflects" type A. You have types A B C D E coming in from the sun. So, A gets reflectd and the rest come in. B C D and E will cause the earth to hit up. The earth produces, from this heat, mostly type A radiation. So, type A radiation is sent out but it gets reflected back in. Is that cool?
(long-live edit conflicts) The greenhouse effect refers to the process whereby energy ultimately derived from the sun is trapped near the surface of the Earth due to the recycling effects of the atmosphere. Most of the heat exchange between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere is accomplished by the ability of greenhouse gases to absorb infrared radiation (the type of radiation given off by all things as a function of their temperature), and so greenhouse gases play an essential role in determining how much energy is trapped near the surface. See figure at right for the relative fluxes involved. At the average mid-latitude location and averaged over a full 24 hours, there is actually more energy transfered from the atmosphere to the Earth's surface than there is recieved directly from the sun. Without the extra energy flux maintained by the greenhouse effect temperatures on Earth would drop more than 30 C. Dragons flight 21:10, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
"Only a small minority of scientists discount the role that humanity's actions have played in recent warming. However, the uncertainty is more significant regarding how much climate change should be expected in the future" ---it compares the "uncertainty" of global change, which is an integral part of any scientifically estimated value, with something very different. I think it should be rephrased. Also, i think the dispute over the climate models is more relevant than the dispute over whether there already is warming. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 82.123.254.123 ( talk • contribs) .
Rather than even have that section at all, the Causes section itself should list up to the (2nd? 3rd? 4th?) largest theories on the causes with a paragraph, each with separate articles for full details, rather than just Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and "everything else" (Alternative theories).
Although the list of alternatives shows 'range of natural variation' 'coming out of a prior cold period' (with link) and 'solar irradiance' the only other theory under Causes with a section and a link to an article of its own is Solar Variation, and even then it uses a different term than in the list.
One problem with the Alternative Theories section is that although it lists three things, then claims there's not much support for any, the solar irradiance/solar variation section afterwards is fairly lengthy and seems at least somewhat supported.
The biggest problem is that the support for the implication that such (or any) alternative opinions being 'not widely held' is made by a reference to the Oreskes essay in Science. There are problems with that essay. It's not primary sources, it's not peer-reviewed, it's not more than an editorial, and it's very unreliable:
The "Causes" section should list the possible causes. -- Sln3412 02:25, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
It is my understanding that the 100,000 year cycles in temperature and carbon dioxide are caused by the changes in the Earth's distance from the Sun. This causes change in the intensity of light, causing change in temperature. This change in temperature then causes changes in carbon dioxide levels. Seeing as how this works in the reverse way that global warming is said to, what would be the mechanism of this? Obviously the ice core graphs show that the industrial age has seen drastically increased carbon dioxide levels and matching temperatures, but how can it be said that this trend will doubtlessly continue if we don't fully understand the graph? If anyone knows of any research that explains this, it might be a good thing to include in the article. Also, a PhD in Marine Biology quoted to me yesterday that approximately 60% of the worlds photosynthesis occurs in the oceans. Marine algaes and planktons would receive all the benefits listed in the "biomass" section with barely any downside. Also, if you look at the 100 million year timescale, the Earth has been much warmer in the past, and the plant life flourished. So, if anyone could find research on these topics, I think they would be great to include. The evidence for global warming is almost indisputable, but the evidence for the unchanging, exponential, apocalyptic nature of global warming is NOT conclusive; the article should reflect this. The supposed effects of the mechanisms listed in the global cooling article also contradict the effects of global warming described in this article. That must be addressed. -- TBSchemer 09:26, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
This may seem to be a flippant devil's advocate, but has anyone looked into any possible positive externalities of global warming? It seems that we, as a world, are running pell-mell into the future despite all the warnings and evidence. I find it hard to believe the world is totally pell-mell, but the global warming problem will probably be fully upon us before any corrections are done. So, how does one use it to our advantage? This counter argument may point to a possible conviction held by some that there could be benefits to global warming and if this is so, what would be the benefit of global warming?
Yeah, temperate climate zones are the most productive agricultarally (contraire to popular belief that tropical are...) and most technologies were developed to deal with these climates (guess why?) If this climates are shifted towards the poles then there will be less area to exploit them.