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As of this writing, Hawai'i, currently 2–6, is listed as one loss away from bowl ineligibility with a note indicating that they must win seven games to reach bowl eligibility, since they are playing a 13-game schedule. However, if Hawai'i were to finish the regular season 6–7 and win the Mountain West Conference championship game, they would have seven wins and meet the NCAA's definition of a deserving team. Therefore, Hawai'i only become bowl ineligible when they have seven losses and are eliminated from Mountain West Conference championship contention.
Hawai'i is presently 0–3 in the Mountain West. So, to determine whether they are one loss away from bowl ineligibility, we need to ascertain whether a loss in their next game (which would give them seven losses) vs. San José State would result in their elimination from the Mountain West championship race.
The top two teams in the Mountain West standings qualify for the conference championship game. Mountain West teams play an eight-game conference schedule. Therefore, a loss vs. San José State means Hawai'i can finish with no better than a 4–4 conference record. The clearest path to determine whether Hawai'i could, even in the most remotely possible circumstances, be one of the two teams participating in the conference championship game is to find outcomes of yet-to-be-played games that produce a multiple-team tie for second place in the conference with a record of 4–4.
The Mountain West tiebreakers for ties between three or more teams [Hawaii 1] break such ties first using the CFP Selection Committee ranking prior to the regular season's final weekend, unless one of the tied teams has defeated all other tied teams. The tied team with the highest CFP ranking wins the tiebreaker, if it wins its final regular-season game. If none of the tied teams are ranked, or if no ranked team wins its final game, the team with the best composite average of selected computer rankings at the conclusion of the regular season wins the tiebreaker. Since the CFP committee's ranking and the composite average of selected computer rankings that would determine the tiebreaker cannot be known at this time, there can be no certainty that Hawai'i would lose either of these.
Assuming a Hawai'i loss to San José State, the Mountain West standings would be as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 4 | 0 |
UNLV | 3 | 0 |
Wyoming | 2 | 1 |
Boise State | 2 | 1 |
Fresno State | 2 | 1 |
San José State | 3 | 2 |
Colorado State | 1 | 2 |
Nevada | 1 | 2 |
New Mexico | 1 | 2 |
San Diego State | 1 | 3 |
Utah State | 1 | 3 |
Hawai'i | 0 | 4 |
Next, we can assume the following outcomes of the remaining conference games:
Hawai'i: wins versus Nevada, Air Force, Wyoming and Colorado State (4–0)
Air Force: wins versus Colorado State, UNLV and Boise State, loss versus Hawai'i (3–1)
UNLV: win versus Fresno State, losses versus New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force and San José State (1–4)
Wyoming: wins versus UNLV and Nevada, losses versus Boise State, Colorado State and Hawai'i (2–3)
Boise State: win versus Wyoming, losses versus Fresno State, New Mexico, Utah State and Air Force (1–4)
Fresno State: wins versus Boise State and San José State, losses versus UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State (2–3)
San José State: win versus UNLV, losses versus Fresno State and San Diego State (1–2)
Colorado State: win versus Wyoming, losses versus Air Force, San Diego State, Nevada and Hawai'i (1–4)
Nevada: wins versus New Mexico, Utah State and Colorado State, losses versus Hawai'i and Wyoming (3–2)
New Mexico: wins versus UNLV, Boise State and Fresno State, losses versus Nevada and Utah State (3–2)
San Diego State: wins versus Colorado State, San José State and Fresno State, loss versus Utah State (3–1)
Utah State: wins versus San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico, loss versus Nevada (3–1)
Those outcomes would produce final regular season standings as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 7 | 1 |
UNLV | 4 | 4 |
Wyoming | 4 | 4 |
Fresno State | 4 | 4 |
San José State | 4 | 4 |
Nevada | 4 | 4 |
New Mexico | 4 | 4 |
San Diego State | 4 | 4 |
Utah State | 4 | 4 |
Hawai'i | 4 | 4 |
Boise State | 3 | 5 |
Colorado State | 2 | 6 |
In the resulting nine-way tie for second place, none of the tied teams would have defeated all the other tied teams. Therefore, the tie would be broken by either the CFP rankings or the composite average of selected computer rankings, and Hawai'i could prevail under either of those. As a result, a loss by Hawai'i to San José State will not make them bowl ineligible, since they could still win the Mountain West championship game and finish 7–7.
Two more losses by Hawai'i would eliminate them from bowl eligibility, because they would have eight losses. Further, it is impossible for a team with five conference losses to finish tied for second place in the Mountain West.
References
Taxman1913 ( talk) 15:43, 25 October 2023 (UTC)
After a 35–0 loss in Week 9 to San José State, Hawai'i sits at 2–7. Therefore, they now must qualify for and win the Mountain West championship game to finish 7–7 and meet the NCAA's definition of a deserving team. Through Week 9, the Mountain West standings are as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 5 | 0 |
Fresno State | 3 | 1 |
Boise State | 3 | 1 |
UNLV | 3 | 1 |
San José State | 3 | 2 |
Nevada | 2 | 2 |
Wyoming | 2 | 2 |
Utah State | 1 | 3 |
New Mexico | 1 | 3 |
San Diego State | 1 | 3 |
Colorado State | 1 | 3 |
Hawai'i | 0 | 4 |
We need to assume Hawai'i wins all its remaining games, since one more loss gives them eight losses, and, even if they were to win the Mountain West championship, their record would be 6–8, which excludes them from being a deserving team.
The following outcomes of remaining conference games can be assumed:
Hawai'i: wins versus Nevada, Air Force, Wyoming and Colorado State (4–0)
Air Force: wins versus UNLV and Boise State, loss versus Hawai'i (2–1)
Fresno State: win versus Boise State, losses versus San José State, New Mexico and San Diego State (1–3)
Boise State: losses versus Fresno State, New Mexico, Utah State and Air Force (0–4)
UNLV: win versus San José State, losses versus New Mexico, Wyoming and Air Force (1–3)
San José State: win versus Fresno State, losses versus San Diego State and UNLV (1–2)
Nevada: wins versus Utah State and Colorado State, losses versus Hawai'i and Wyoming (2–2)
Wyoming: wins versus UNLV and Nevada, losses versus Colorado State and Hawai'i (2–2)
Utah State: wins versus San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico, loss versus Nevada (3–1)
New Mexico: wins versus UNLV, Boise State and Fresno State, loss versus Utah State (3–1)
San Diego State: wins versus San José State and Fresno State, losses versus Utah State and Colorado State (2–2)
Colorado State: wins versus Wyoming and San Diego State, losses versus San Diego State, Nevada and Hawai'i (2–2)
Those outcomes would produce final regular season standings as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 7 | 1 |
Hawai'i | 4 | 4 |
Fresno State | 4 | 4 |
UNLV | 4 | 4 |
San José State | 4 | 4 |
Nevada | 4 | 4 |
Wyoming | 4 | 4 |
Utah State | 4 | 4 |
New Mexico | 4 | 4 |
Boise State | 3 | 5 |
San Diego State | 3 | 5 |
Colorado State | 3 | 5 |
In the resulting eight-way tie for second place, none of the tied teams would have defeated all the other tied teams, since a team that did so would have at least seven conference wins, and all the teams have four. Therefore, the tie would be broken by either the CFP rankings or the composite average of selected computer rankings, and Hawai'i could prevail under either of those. As a result, Hawai'i still has a mathematical possibility of reaching and winning the Mountain West championship game and finishing 7–7, which would make them bowl eligible as a deserving team.
The first Mountain West game in Week 10 is a Friday night game between Wyoming and Colorado State. If Wyoming wins that game (instead of losing as in the model above), Wyoming could lose its game against Nevada (instead of winning as above), and Nevada could lose its game against Colorado State (instead of winning as above). These different results would give Wyoming and Nevada 4–4 conference records, while Colorado State would still be 3–5. Thus, an eight-way tie for second place that includes Hawai'i would remain possible.
Of course, Hawai'i must win its game on Saturday at Nevada to avoid reaching eight losses and becoming bowl ineligible. If Hawai'i wins, and UNLV defeats New Mexico (instead of losing as above), UNLV could lose its game against San José State (instead of winning as above), San José State could lose its game against Fresno State (instead of winning as above), and Fresno State could lose its game against Boise State (instead of winning as above).
Fresno State and Boise State play on Saturday evening. In the case of a Hawai'i victory on Saturday (the only circumstance in which the other games remain relevant), if UNLV and Fresno State both win, they will both have four wins, and each has a game remaining against San José State, which has three wins and a bye in Week 10. Therefore, those two results will mean that at least one of UNLV, Fresno State and San José State must have at least five conference wins, a total Hawai'i cannot reach. Consequently, wins by both UNLV and Fresno State would make Hawai'i bowl ineligible, regardless of the outcome of Hawai'i's game. Taxman1913 ( talk) 23:38, 29 October 2023 (UTC)
I think there's a decent chance that some teams that are not deserving teams may become bowl eligible based on their APRs, so I added a section discussing this to the article.
There are currently 23 five-win teams with 24 games remaining. Navy is the only one with two games left. If they collectively go 0–24 in those games, the Syracuse loss would force Wake Forest to 5–7, the UCF loss would force Houston to 5–7, the Rice loss would force Florida Atlantic to 5–7, the Utah State loss would force New Mexico to 5–7, and the second Navy loss would force Army to 5–6. Two 4–7 teams, FIU and UAB, are playing each other. Assuming the team with the lower APR wins the game maximizes the opportunity for other teams to qualify based on APR. All four-win teams not playing five-win teams or other four-win teams as assumed to lose. All those assumptions would produce the following:
Selection Order |
APR Rank | Team | Countable Games Record |
Projected Record |
Multiyear APR |
2021–22 APR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 8 (tie) | Wake Forest | 4–7 | 5–7 | 992 | 1,000 |
2 | 8 (tie) | Minnesota | 5–6 | 5–7 | 992 | 994 |
3 | 15 (tie) | Rice | 5–6 | 5–7 | 987 | |
4 | 19 (tie) | Mississippi State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 985 | |
5 | 22 | UCF | 5–6 | 5–7 | 984 | |
6 | 23 (tie) | South Carolina | 5–6 | 5–7 | 983 | |
7 | 28 (tie) | Michigan State | 4–7 | 4–8 | 982 | |
8 | 34 (tie) | Ball State | 4–7 | 4–8 | 980 | |
9 | 36 (tie) | California | 5–6 | 5–7 | 978 | 975 |
10 | 36 (tie) | Army | 4–6 | 5–6 | 978 | 971 |
11 | 43 (tie) | Florida | 5–6 | 5–7 | 977 | |
12 | 59 (tie) | Middle Tennessee | 4–7 | 4–8 | 972 | |
13 | 65 (tie) | Navy | 5–5 | 5–7 | 969 | 971 |
14 | 65 (tie) | Nebraska | 5–6 | 5–7 | 969 | 965 |
15 | 69 (tie) | Northern Illinois | 5–6 | 5–7 | 967 | 988 |
16 | 69 (tie) | Virginia Tech | 5–6 | 5–7 | 967 | 962 |
17 | 69 (tie) | South Florida | 5–6 | 5–7 | 967 | 955 |
18 | 79 (tie) | Utah State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 965 | |
19 | 84 | Old Dominion | 5–6 | 5–7 | 963 | |
20 | 85 | Illinois | 5–6 | 5–7 | 962 | |
21 | 88 (tie) | Marshall | 5–6 | 5–7 | 961 | 951 |
22 | 88 (tie) | Washington State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 961 | 949 |
23 | 92 (tie) | Colorado | 4–7 | 4–8 | 959 | |
24 | 97 (tie) | Colorado State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 957 | |
25 | 102 (tie) | Houston | 4–7 | 5–7 | 955 | 965 |
26 | 102 (tie) | Syracuse | 5–6 | 5–7 | 955 | 963 |
27 | 105 (tie) | BYU | 5–6 | 5–7 | 954 | |
28 | 108 | North Texas | 4–7 | 4–8 | 953 | |
29 | 109 (tie) | Central Michigan | 5–6 | 5–7 | 952 | 958 |
30 | 109 (tie) | TCU | 5–6 | 5–7 | 952 | 950 |
31 | 109 (tie) | Louisiana | 5–6 | 5–7 | 952 | 929 |
32 | 117 (tie) | FIU | 4–7 | 4–8 | 948 | |
33 | 119 (tie) | New Mexico | 4–7 | 5–7 | 947 | |
34 | 123 (tie) | UAB | 4–7 | 5–7 | 944 | |
35 | 128 (tie) | Florida Atlantic | 4–7 | 5–7 | 933 |
There are presently 14 unfilled bowl berths. If the five-win teams go 0–24, the first two alternate berths would go to Jacksonville State and James Madison, leaving 12 berths to be filled by APR rankings. If the five-win teams go 11–13, including 0–2 by Navy, there would be one APR alternate. If Syracuse had one of those wins, it would have become a deserving team and left Wake Forest at 4–8, falling off the APR list. So, if you believe that the five-win teams will do no better than 11–13, the Syracuse–Wake Forest game is effectively for a bowl berth.
If Michigan State, Ball State and Middle Tennessee all lose this weekend, it would require going down to the 15th team on the APR list to fill the maximum number of 12 bowl slots. It doesn't matter what happens in the Syracuse–Wake Forest game, because either Syracuse will win and become a deserving team, reducing the maximum number of alternate APR teams by one, or Wake Forest will take the first alternate APR spot.
There is an interesting possibility that would add an unprecedented twist to America's Game. If the five-win teams below Army in the APR rankings, excluding Syracuse, go 4–12, including a loss by Navy, and Michigan State and Ball State both lose, those four winners would all have become bowl eligible, leaving eight unfilled bowl slots. One of those would go to the Syracuse–Wake Forest winner. Army would move up to the eighth selection in the APR rankings and need a win in the Army–Navy game to secure the final bowl berth. Navy would be 5–6 and need a win to become bowl eligible. The Army–Navy game could be an elimination game for bowl eligibility, and the circumstances to get there are not so far fetched. Other combinations would work as well in setting up that scenario. Taxman1913 ( talk) 05:14, 24 November 2023 (UTC)
References
Hey folks. This edit changed the article to say that the Rose Bowl will have the number 2 and 3 seeds and the Sugar Bowl will have the number 1 and 4 seeds. I believe that's not been determined, and if I'm wrong I would request a link to a reliable reference. If you look at this page on the CFP official website and expand point 9, Pairing for Semi-Finals, you'll see this: "When assigning teams to sites, the selection committee will place the top two seeds at the most advantageous sites, weighing criteria such as convenience of travel for its fans, home‐crowd advantage or disadvantage and general familiarity with the host city and its stadium. Preference will go to the No. 1 seed." So it'll be 2 vs. 3 and 1 vs. 4, but we don't know which game will get which. So, I'm going to take that out of the article. As always other editors are encouraged to post their views. — Mudwater ( Talk) 01:18, 28 November 2023 (UTC)
So, the Rose Bowl gets the 1 and 4 seeds, and the Sugar Bowl gets the 2 and 3 seeds. Presumably the CFP committee sent #1 Michigan to the Rose Bowl because the Big Ten has a historic affinity to that venue. But it could have gone the other way, seed-wise. We just don't know until the committee picks the top four teams and then assigns them to the two semifinal games. — Mudwater ( Talk) 00:09, 4 December 2023 (UTC)
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As of this writing, Hawai'i, currently 2–6, is listed as one loss away from bowl ineligibility with a note indicating that they must win seven games to reach bowl eligibility, since they are playing a 13-game schedule. However, if Hawai'i were to finish the regular season 6–7 and win the Mountain West Conference championship game, they would have seven wins and meet the NCAA's definition of a deserving team. Therefore, Hawai'i only become bowl ineligible when they have seven losses and are eliminated from Mountain West Conference championship contention.
Hawai'i is presently 0–3 in the Mountain West. So, to determine whether they are one loss away from bowl ineligibility, we need to ascertain whether a loss in their next game (which would give them seven losses) vs. San José State would result in their elimination from the Mountain West championship race.
The top two teams in the Mountain West standings qualify for the conference championship game. Mountain West teams play an eight-game conference schedule. Therefore, a loss vs. San José State means Hawai'i can finish with no better than a 4–4 conference record. The clearest path to determine whether Hawai'i could, even in the most remotely possible circumstances, be one of the two teams participating in the conference championship game is to find outcomes of yet-to-be-played games that produce a multiple-team tie for second place in the conference with a record of 4–4.
The Mountain West tiebreakers for ties between three or more teams [Hawaii 1] break such ties first using the CFP Selection Committee ranking prior to the regular season's final weekend, unless one of the tied teams has defeated all other tied teams. The tied team with the highest CFP ranking wins the tiebreaker, if it wins its final regular-season game. If none of the tied teams are ranked, or if no ranked team wins its final game, the team with the best composite average of selected computer rankings at the conclusion of the regular season wins the tiebreaker. Since the CFP committee's ranking and the composite average of selected computer rankings that would determine the tiebreaker cannot be known at this time, there can be no certainty that Hawai'i would lose either of these.
Assuming a Hawai'i loss to San José State, the Mountain West standings would be as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 4 | 0 |
UNLV | 3 | 0 |
Wyoming | 2 | 1 |
Boise State | 2 | 1 |
Fresno State | 2 | 1 |
San José State | 3 | 2 |
Colorado State | 1 | 2 |
Nevada | 1 | 2 |
New Mexico | 1 | 2 |
San Diego State | 1 | 3 |
Utah State | 1 | 3 |
Hawai'i | 0 | 4 |
Next, we can assume the following outcomes of the remaining conference games:
Hawai'i: wins versus Nevada, Air Force, Wyoming and Colorado State (4–0)
Air Force: wins versus Colorado State, UNLV and Boise State, loss versus Hawai'i (3–1)
UNLV: win versus Fresno State, losses versus New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force and San José State (1–4)
Wyoming: wins versus UNLV and Nevada, losses versus Boise State, Colorado State and Hawai'i (2–3)
Boise State: win versus Wyoming, losses versus Fresno State, New Mexico, Utah State and Air Force (1–4)
Fresno State: wins versus Boise State and San José State, losses versus UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State (2–3)
San José State: win versus UNLV, losses versus Fresno State and San Diego State (1–2)
Colorado State: win versus Wyoming, losses versus Air Force, San Diego State, Nevada and Hawai'i (1–4)
Nevada: wins versus New Mexico, Utah State and Colorado State, losses versus Hawai'i and Wyoming (3–2)
New Mexico: wins versus UNLV, Boise State and Fresno State, losses versus Nevada and Utah State (3–2)
San Diego State: wins versus Colorado State, San José State and Fresno State, loss versus Utah State (3–1)
Utah State: wins versus San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico, loss versus Nevada (3–1)
Those outcomes would produce final regular season standings as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 7 | 1 |
UNLV | 4 | 4 |
Wyoming | 4 | 4 |
Fresno State | 4 | 4 |
San José State | 4 | 4 |
Nevada | 4 | 4 |
New Mexico | 4 | 4 |
San Diego State | 4 | 4 |
Utah State | 4 | 4 |
Hawai'i | 4 | 4 |
Boise State | 3 | 5 |
Colorado State | 2 | 6 |
In the resulting nine-way tie for second place, none of the tied teams would have defeated all the other tied teams. Therefore, the tie would be broken by either the CFP rankings or the composite average of selected computer rankings, and Hawai'i could prevail under either of those. As a result, a loss by Hawai'i to San José State will not make them bowl ineligible, since they could still win the Mountain West championship game and finish 7–7.
Two more losses by Hawai'i would eliminate them from bowl eligibility, because they would have eight losses. Further, it is impossible for a team with five conference losses to finish tied for second place in the Mountain West.
References
Taxman1913 ( talk) 15:43, 25 October 2023 (UTC)
After a 35–0 loss in Week 9 to San José State, Hawai'i sits at 2–7. Therefore, they now must qualify for and win the Mountain West championship game to finish 7–7 and meet the NCAA's definition of a deserving team. Through Week 9, the Mountain West standings are as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 5 | 0 |
Fresno State | 3 | 1 |
Boise State | 3 | 1 |
UNLV | 3 | 1 |
San José State | 3 | 2 |
Nevada | 2 | 2 |
Wyoming | 2 | 2 |
Utah State | 1 | 3 |
New Mexico | 1 | 3 |
San Diego State | 1 | 3 |
Colorado State | 1 | 3 |
Hawai'i | 0 | 4 |
We need to assume Hawai'i wins all its remaining games, since one more loss gives them eight losses, and, even if they were to win the Mountain West championship, their record would be 6–8, which excludes them from being a deserving team.
The following outcomes of remaining conference games can be assumed:
Hawai'i: wins versus Nevada, Air Force, Wyoming and Colorado State (4–0)
Air Force: wins versus UNLV and Boise State, loss versus Hawai'i (2–1)
Fresno State: win versus Boise State, losses versus San José State, New Mexico and San Diego State (1–3)
Boise State: losses versus Fresno State, New Mexico, Utah State and Air Force (0–4)
UNLV: win versus San José State, losses versus New Mexico, Wyoming and Air Force (1–3)
San José State: win versus Fresno State, losses versus San Diego State and UNLV (1–2)
Nevada: wins versus Utah State and Colorado State, losses versus Hawai'i and Wyoming (2–2)
Wyoming: wins versus UNLV and Nevada, losses versus Colorado State and Hawai'i (2–2)
Utah State: wins versus San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico, loss versus Nevada (3–1)
New Mexico: wins versus UNLV, Boise State and Fresno State, loss versus Utah State (3–1)
San Diego State: wins versus San José State and Fresno State, losses versus Utah State and Colorado State (2–2)
Colorado State: wins versus Wyoming and San Diego State, losses versus San Diego State, Nevada and Hawai'i (2–2)
Those outcomes would produce final regular season standings as follows:
Team | W | L |
---|---|---|
Air Force | 7 | 1 |
Hawai'i | 4 | 4 |
Fresno State | 4 | 4 |
UNLV | 4 | 4 |
San José State | 4 | 4 |
Nevada | 4 | 4 |
Wyoming | 4 | 4 |
Utah State | 4 | 4 |
New Mexico | 4 | 4 |
Boise State | 3 | 5 |
San Diego State | 3 | 5 |
Colorado State | 3 | 5 |
In the resulting eight-way tie for second place, none of the tied teams would have defeated all the other tied teams, since a team that did so would have at least seven conference wins, and all the teams have four. Therefore, the tie would be broken by either the CFP rankings or the composite average of selected computer rankings, and Hawai'i could prevail under either of those. As a result, Hawai'i still has a mathematical possibility of reaching and winning the Mountain West championship game and finishing 7–7, which would make them bowl eligible as a deserving team.
The first Mountain West game in Week 10 is a Friday night game between Wyoming and Colorado State. If Wyoming wins that game (instead of losing as in the model above), Wyoming could lose its game against Nevada (instead of winning as above), and Nevada could lose its game against Colorado State (instead of winning as above). These different results would give Wyoming and Nevada 4–4 conference records, while Colorado State would still be 3–5. Thus, an eight-way tie for second place that includes Hawai'i would remain possible.
Of course, Hawai'i must win its game on Saturday at Nevada to avoid reaching eight losses and becoming bowl ineligible. If Hawai'i wins, and UNLV defeats New Mexico (instead of losing as above), UNLV could lose its game against San José State (instead of winning as above), San José State could lose its game against Fresno State (instead of winning as above), and Fresno State could lose its game against Boise State (instead of winning as above).
Fresno State and Boise State play on Saturday evening. In the case of a Hawai'i victory on Saturday (the only circumstance in which the other games remain relevant), if UNLV and Fresno State both win, they will both have four wins, and each has a game remaining against San José State, which has three wins and a bye in Week 10. Therefore, those two results will mean that at least one of UNLV, Fresno State and San José State must have at least five conference wins, a total Hawai'i cannot reach. Consequently, wins by both UNLV and Fresno State would make Hawai'i bowl ineligible, regardless of the outcome of Hawai'i's game. Taxman1913 ( talk) 23:38, 29 October 2023 (UTC)
I think there's a decent chance that some teams that are not deserving teams may become bowl eligible based on their APRs, so I added a section discussing this to the article.
There are currently 23 five-win teams with 24 games remaining. Navy is the only one with two games left. If they collectively go 0–24 in those games, the Syracuse loss would force Wake Forest to 5–7, the UCF loss would force Houston to 5–7, the Rice loss would force Florida Atlantic to 5–7, the Utah State loss would force New Mexico to 5–7, and the second Navy loss would force Army to 5–6. Two 4–7 teams, FIU and UAB, are playing each other. Assuming the team with the lower APR wins the game maximizes the opportunity for other teams to qualify based on APR. All four-win teams not playing five-win teams or other four-win teams as assumed to lose. All those assumptions would produce the following:
Selection Order |
APR Rank | Team | Countable Games Record |
Projected Record |
Multiyear APR |
2021–22 APR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 8 (tie) | Wake Forest | 4–7 | 5–7 | 992 | 1,000 |
2 | 8 (tie) | Minnesota | 5–6 | 5–7 | 992 | 994 |
3 | 15 (tie) | Rice | 5–6 | 5–7 | 987 | |
4 | 19 (tie) | Mississippi State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 985 | |
5 | 22 | UCF | 5–6 | 5–7 | 984 | |
6 | 23 (tie) | South Carolina | 5–6 | 5–7 | 983 | |
7 | 28 (tie) | Michigan State | 4–7 | 4–8 | 982 | |
8 | 34 (tie) | Ball State | 4–7 | 4–8 | 980 | |
9 | 36 (tie) | California | 5–6 | 5–7 | 978 | 975 |
10 | 36 (tie) | Army | 4–6 | 5–6 | 978 | 971 |
11 | 43 (tie) | Florida | 5–6 | 5–7 | 977 | |
12 | 59 (tie) | Middle Tennessee | 4–7 | 4–8 | 972 | |
13 | 65 (tie) | Navy | 5–5 | 5–7 | 969 | 971 |
14 | 65 (tie) | Nebraska | 5–6 | 5–7 | 969 | 965 |
15 | 69 (tie) | Northern Illinois | 5–6 | 5–7 | 967 | 988 |
16 | 69 (tie) | Virginia Tech | 5–6 | 5–7 | 967 | 962 |
17 | 69 (tie) | South Florida | 5–6 | 5–7 | 967 | 955 |
18 | 79 (tie) | Utah State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 965 | |
19 | 84 | Old Dominion | 5–6 | 5–7 | 963 | |
20 | 85 | Illinois | 5–6 | 5–7 | 962 | |
21 | 88 (tie) | Marshall | 5–6 | 5–7 | 961 | 951 |
22 | 88 (tie) | Washington State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 961 | 949 |
23 | 92 (tie) | Colorado | 4–7 | 4–8 | 959 | |
24 | 97 (tie) | Colorado State | 5–6 | 5–7 | 957 | |
25 | 102 (tie) | Houston | 4–7 | 5–7 | 955 | 965 |
26 | 102 (tie) | Syracuse | 5–6 | 5–7 | 955 | 963 |
27 | 105 (tie) | BYU | 5–6 | 5–7 | 954 | |
28 | 108 | North Texas | 4–7 | 4–8 | 953 | |
29 | 109 (tie) | Central Michigan | 5–6 | 5–7 | 952 | 958 |
30 | 109 (tie) | TCU | 5–6 | 5–7 | 952 | 950 |
31 | 109 (tie) | Louisiana | 5–6 | 5–7 | 952 | 929 |
32 | 117 (tie) | FIU | 4–7 | 4–8 | 948 | |
33 | 119 (tie) | New Mexico | 4–7 | 5–7 | 947 | |
34 | 123 (tie) | UAB | 4–7 | 5–7 | 944 | |
35 | 128 (tie) | Florida Atlantic | 4–7 | 5–7 | 933 |
There are presently 14 unfilled bowl berths. If the five-win teams go 0–24, the first two alternate berths would go to Jacksonville State and James Madison, leaving 12 berths to be filled by APR rankings. If the five-win teams go 11–13, including 0–2 by Navy, there would be one APR alternate. If Syracuse had one of those wins, it would have become a deserving team and left Wake Forest at 4–8, falling off the APR list. So, if you believe that the five-win teams will do no better than 11–13, the Syracuse–Wake Forest game is effectively for a bowl berth.
If Michigan State, Ball State and Middle Tennessee all lose this weekend, it would require going down to the 15th team on the APR list to fill the maximum number of 12 bowl slots. It doesn't matter what happens in the Syracuse–Wake Forest game, because either Syracuse will win and become a deserving team, reducing the maximum number of alternate APR teams by one, or Wake Forest will take the first alternate APR spot.
There is an interesting possibility that would add an unprecedented twist to America's Game. If the five-win teams below Army in the APR rankings, excluding Syracuse, go 4–12, including a loss by Navy, and Michigan State and Ball State both lose, those four winners would all have become bowl eligible, leaving eight unfilled bowl slots. One of those would go to the Syracuse–Wake Forest winner. Army would move up to the eighth selection in the APR rankings and need a win in the Army–Navy game to secure the final bowl berth. Navy would be 5–6 and need a win to become bowl eligible. The Army–Navy game could be an elimination game for bowl eligibility, and the circumstances to get there are not so far fetched. Other combinations would work as well in setting up that scenario. Taxman1913 ( talk) 05:14, 24 November 2023 (UTC)
References
Hey folks. This edit changed the article to say that the Rose Bowl will have the number 2 and 3 seeds and the Sugar Bowl will have the number 1 and 4 seeds. I believe that's not been determined, and if I'm wrong I would request a link to a reliable reference. If you look at this page on the CFP official website and expand point 9, Pairing for Semi-Finals, you'll see this: "When assigning teams to sites, the selection committee will place the top two seeds at the most advantageous sites, weighing criteria such as convenience of travel for its fans, home‐crowd advantage or disadvantage and general familiarity with the host city and its stadium. Preference will go to the No. 1 seed." So it'll be 2 vs. 3 and 1 vs. 4, but we don't know which game will get which. So, I'm going to take that out of the article. As always other editors are encouraged to post their views. — Mudwater ( Talk) 01:18, 28 November 2023 (UTC)
So, the Rose Bowl gets the 1 and 4 seeds, and the Sugar Bowl gets the 2 and 3 seeds. Presumably the CFP committee sent #1 Michigan to the Rose Bowl because the Big Ten has a historic affinity to that venue. But it could have gone the other way, seed-wise. We just don't know until the committee picks the top four teams and then assigns them to the two semifinal games. — Mudwater ( Talk) 00:09, 4 December 2023 (UTC)