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When analysts write blogs, they don't commit the same resources that they would commit to scholarly articles. In order to be a published, a blog needs to be checked for spelling, and occasionally grammar. In order to be published, an actual analytical source needs to be checked for content; blogs are never checked for content, therefore blogs don't qualify. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 21:33, 15 August 2009 (UTC)
First off, the people who interpret a treaty, are the ones who write it. Not allies of the ones who write it. This treaty was written by Sarkozy and Medvedev. The British had no say in it. Georgia had no say in it, as Saakashvili was just shown the final treaty and asked to accept it. The treaty was heralded as a talk between Russian and the European Union. However the EU's representative for the treaty was Sarkozy. Not the House of Lords. Thus only Sarkozy can say whether Russia broke the treaty terms or not. Representatives of organizations have different opinions. The British and the French generally have different standards of interpretation. For instance Britain calls the Iraq War legal, France calls it illegal, using the exact same documents. By signing with Sarkozy, Medvedev was yielding to French, not British interpretation. If Britain was the EU representative, Russia would not have signed the treaty.
According to Xeeron's and Kouber's logic, "Who signed the peace threaty (btw Sarkozy did, as representative of the EU, hint GB is part of that), is irrelevant, the house of Lords can issue reports without HistoricWarrior's approval." Well Medvedev signed the peace treaty (or threaty) on as representative of the Russian Coalition that won the war, hint LDPR is part of that.) So I guess we should also state what Zhirinovsky thinks about the treaty, he has as much credibility on this as the House of Lords. And while the House of Lords can issue reports without my approval, those reports still have to be accurate. Svante Cornell can fantasize about millions of Russian troops flooding Georgia, and he doesn't need my approval for that, but it's still grossly inaccurate.
Contrary to Xeeron and Kouber, commons sense states that who signed the treaty is extremely relevant. United Russia spokesperson, I forget which one, stated that if Poland chaired the EU, Russia wouldn't sign the treaty, err I mean threaty. The same could be said of Britain, with whom Russia is not on the best of terms.
When interpreting a document, be it a treaty or threaty, one looks for the original meaning of it. That's the legal concept accepted in Universal Jurisprudence. Who better, to interpret the confusing parts of a document, than its writer? No one! This is common sense so basic, that it doesn't even need to be mentioned, but with Xeeron's and Kouber's POV, even the most basic common sense needs explaining. Troops still don't fly. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 00:31, 22 July 2009 (UTC)
As per the Six Point Peace Plan, points 5 and 6 state:
5. Russian armed forces to withdraw to the positions held before hostilities began in South Ossetia. Russian peacekeepers to implement additional security measures until an international monitoring mechanism is in place. Sarkozy: These measures affect only the immediate vicinity of South Ossetia and in no instance the entire territory of Georgia.
6. The opening of international discussions on the modalities of security and stability of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
In other words, if Russia recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, they get to keep their troops there, it's not a violation. Russia's and Nicaragua's recognition qualify as an international mechanism. Which means they no longer have to be peacekeepers. In addition, South Ossetia definitely qualifies as the immediate vicinity of South Ossetia. Sarkozy was mainly worried about Russia occupying Georgia Proper, as such occupation might threaten French Interests, he didn't really care about Russia being in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. The House of Lords may have cared, but I don't recall anyone even remotely asking the House of Lords for anything in this war. Certainly not the French or Russians. Thus it's irrelevant, this is an encyclopedia, not the mouthpiece of the House of Lords. Shall I go and write Zhirinovsky's comments on the Independence of Ireland? If not, why are putting the House of Lords here? The language is crystal clear, there's really no need to make stuff up.
I do find it hilarious that both Xeeron and Kouber find Russia's statement that "we will intervene if you attack South Ossetia and/or Abkhazia" not significant enough to be placed in the introduction, but a House of Lords report on a treaty in which the House of Lords has no say in, and never had a say in, is somehow significant. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 03:29, 22 July 2009 (UTC)
I don't know why it seems different editors are citing different results but it still suffers the same problem of being a complete Google search. I have always looked at the Google News search results since those don't give results more than a few months old and the most common name in the media is almost always the name used in the history books. Here are the results I got:
Now, I don't care what name you think it should be changed to but it seems pretty clear to me that South Ossetia War loses.-- The Devil's Advocate ( talk) 04:33, 3 August 2009 (UTC)
"South Ossetia" has always been, and continues to be, the least used of the names. However, on wikipedia, a determined opposition can always block the move, that is why I don't see the title change anytime soon.
Regarding "academic sources", here are the latest Google scholar numbers:
Whether you use normal google, google news or google scholar, the gist stays the same: South Ossetia war is, by far, the least used of those names. -- Xeeron ( talk) 09:11, 8 August 2009 (UTC)
Hit count numbers alone can only rarely "prove" anything about notability, without further discussion of the type of hits, what's been searched for, how it was searched, and what interpretation to give the results. On the other hand, examining the types of hit arising (or their lack) often does provide useful information related to notability.
Oh my, this discussion again. Anyway I would suggest August war. It overwhelms current title in google scholar 13 vs 82 making it clearly more widely used, and no nonsensical counterarguments about painting Russia as "agressor" (which seemed to be main reason why some editors took opposing stance against "Russia-Georgia war") or whatever can be used against it without looking like total moron as its as neutral as you can get.-- Staberinde ( talk) 20:22, 18 August 2009 (UTC)
Stuff like this really drains my will to edit here. -- Xeeron ( talk) 11:34, 4 August 2009 (UTC)
You can look for deletion logs for these files to determine the reason, which in most cases is the license/copyright problems. See for example here.
Here is the discussion that led to the deletion of all those pics: [2]. In short, the permission given by the ministry did not allow commercial use, but that is a requirement in Wikipedia. If you see good pics anywhere, send the copyright owner a message similar to the ones listed here and maybe they will agree to release the pics. I once managed to get initial permissions from osinform.ru and Arkady Babchenko, but WP voluenteers handling the permissions wanted a more formal response, and when I asked for it, I got no reply anymore. Offliner ( talk) 00:09, 5 August 2009 (UTC)
Seems that the centenary has upped the topic in the news again. Here are 3 pieces:
Don't think they need to go into the article, but it is interesting how different the evaluations still are. -- Xeeron ( talk) 11:21, 8 August 2009 (UTC)
I think the Fajardo Arcticle would be a great addition in the Media War section. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 06:35, 24 August 2009 (UTC)
I think this interview has a good summary of the legal aspects of the war, as well as of the media coverage. It's interesting that the US and UK blocked all of Russia's Security Council proposals, which demanded Georgia to stop the attack. (According to Professor Petro, this means that Russia's reaction was appropriate and proportionate, because the international community failed to act, and therefore unilateral action was necessary.) The Security Council stuff was dropped from the article long time ago for size reasons, but I'm starting to think that some if it should be brought back, but I'm not sure in which form. I also inserted Petro's analysis of Western media coverage and how it changed over time (this is another thing that was lacking in the article.) Offliner ( talk) 10:07, 19 August 2009 (UTC)
This is a good article from him as well. It has analysis about how Georgia conducted the media war and it even has some pieces of info that are new to me, such as "Georgia cut off water supplies to Tskhinvali already in July", and "Georgian hackers shut down Ossetian news sites early on 5 August". Offliner ( talk) 08:18, 20 August 2009 (UTC)
Back on topic, I think this part of the interview should be included: "The overall perceptions [the average] American has of Russia is far less judgmental than that of the media or the policy making elite, since most people see little connection between Russia’s problems in the Caucasus, and their own lives...Sadly, while the facts regarding Georgia’s aggression are somewhat better known today, Western pundits and politicians remain ignorant of the history of the region and it peoples, and hence of the deeper roots of the conflict."
First of, it's true. Petro most likely conducted the study amongst his college students, for the first part of the statement, and anyone who watches America's TV channels, most notably CNN, can confirm the second part. I had a copy of the Times delivered, on August 8th, showing pictures of Georgian women in blood, (which were later proven fake, but no apology was given by the newspaper). I have unsubscribed from the newspaper that day, but previously I received it on a regular basis. Either way, living in the US, I can say that both statements are true. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:12, 29 August 2009 (UTC)
"Flag of the United Kingdom Roy Allison wrote in International Affairs that there is strong evidence that the Russian invasion of South Ossetia and then deeper into Georgia was indeed planned and even expected rather than spontaneous and improvised. However, the exact timing of the intervention during August–September may not have been of Moscow’s choosing, if for example South Ossetian forces were impatient to instigate a conflict in July–August to give Russia a pretext for intervention and could not be effectively controlled. Regarding the events of August 7/8, Allison states that "Moscow’s insistence that its forces did not cross the Georgian border until Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali were in severe jeopardy has gained quite wide acceptance internationally. The Georgian claim has, however, been strengthened by the release of telephone intercepts (lost for a month in the chaos of combat) indicating that at least part of a Russian armoured regiment had crossed into South Ossetia by late on 7 August." In the light of the Russian occupation of uncontested Georgian territory, its claim to realize the peacekeeping function assumed in the Sochi agreements is described as "increasingly surreal". Russia's goals in the war are described as manyfold: Restoring the security of its peacekeepers and 'citizens' in South Ossetia, the establishment of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as military protectorates, a weakening of Georgia's strategic position (as a mean to disuade NATO from offering a MAP to Georgia and to diminish the attractiveness of the energy transit corridor from the Caspian) and bringing down the government of President Saakashvili.[273]"
NATO already offered a MAP to Georgia. In an article, that you, Xeeron, cited earlier: http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/2008/p08-049e.html from this I get: "We will begin talks immediately with the aim of signing Accession Protocols by the end of July 2008 and completing the ratification process without delay. During the period leading up to accession, NATO will involve the invited countries in Alliance activities to the greatest extent possible, and will continue to provide support and assistance, including through the Membership Action Plan (MAP). We look forward to receiving the invited countries' timetables for reform, upon which further progress will be expected before, and after, accession in order to enhance their contribution to the Alliance."
So in July 2008, Georgia and Ukraine go on MAP. In August, according to sources cited by Xeeron, Russia invades Georgia, in order to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from going on MAP. Xeeron, I'm not entirely sure you're aware of this, but July actually comes before August. In other words, Russia cannot attack Georgia in August, to dissuade the European countries from offering a MAP to Georgia in July. Dude, do you at least bother to read your own sources? Do you think Wikipedia's a joke or something? At this point in the debate, I am using your own sources and common sense against you. Are you sure you want to keep going? HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:18, 24 August 2009 (UTC)
And Allison's bias comes out: Mr. Allison still view the World in Black and White, in NATO and non-NATO terms. Here's his paper with a certain Svante Cornell: http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/vol14no3.pdf For instance, Mr. Allison believes that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been largely ineffective. It has been so ineffective, that Mongolia, Iran, Pakistan and India hold observer positions while ASEAN is an honorary guest. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is so "ineffective", that it stabilized the borders of its members. In addition Mr. Allison heavily relies on reports from the Jamestown Foundation, which is already over-represented in this article. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 05:45, 26 August 2009 (UTC)
From the Article:
Flag of Russia On 14 August, 2008, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, biologist by training, observer of Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta and regular contributor to U.S. based think-tank Jamestown Foundation speculated in a Novaya Gazeta article that "Russia's invasion of Georgia had been planned in advance, with the final political decision to complete the preparations and start war in August apparently having been made back in April."
Felgenhauer is not a "Russian military analyst". He does not have a military history degree. He does not teach, nor do military researches. He is a regular contributor to the Jamestown Foundation, but since when does that make you a Russian military analyst? I am not against him being included, but first off, the flag should be American, not Russian, as the article was written by Felgenhauer as an employee of/contributor to The Jamestown Foundation, which isn't Russian. I guess credentials don't matter anymore.
Here is a gem by PF: http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ncw/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=1348&tx_ttnews[backPid]=184&no_cache=1 (yeah guys, Russia is definitely losing the Second Chechen War according to Felgenhauer, whoopsie, I guess he called that one wrong.)
And from 1999: Only one prominent writer, the Moscow-based independent defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, has called attention to its importance, in the English-language "St. Petersburg Times." In that article, Felgenhauer called Putin "an irrational warmonger--a leader who..." (Yeah Putin, stabilizing and increasing the living standards of Russian citizens in the Caucasian region, you irrational warmonger you!)
I don't think Felgenhauer, writing for the Jamestown Foundation, qualifies as a Russian source. In addition, Felgenhauer speculated that: "Russia's invasion of Georgia had been planned in advance, with the final political decision to complete the preparations and start war in August apparently having been made back in April". Felgenhauer bases this claim on the fact that "in April Russia understood that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually join NATO". It's great that Felgenhauer understood what the rest of the World missed, because France and Germany were willing to VETO Georgia's membership. As would Spain and Greece. Here is an article that Felgenhauer apparently missed: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0115117020080401?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews "France will not give its green light to the entry of Ukraine and Georgia," Fillon told France Inter radio."France has an opinion which is different from that of the United States on this question." "We are opposed to the entry of Georgia and Ukraine because we think it is not the right response to the balance of power in Europe and between Europe and Russia, and we want to have a dialogue on this subject with Russia," Fillon said.
It is hard to believe that France alone would go against the US, without any backing. The reason here being is that France and Germany would much rather find a middle ground between the US and Russia, then take the side of the US. Russia and France aren't threats to each other, and, outside Kosovo, don't have conflicting interests. Same can be said for Russia and Germany. Even more can be said of Russia's relationship with Greece and Spain. Perhaps Felgenhauer can explain this article for me: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b48201e0-bc00-11dd-80e9-0000779fd18c,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fb48201e0-bc00-11dd-80e9-0000779fd18c.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FGeorgia%25E2%2580%2593NATO_relations&nclick_check=1 which states that, well here, I'll quote: "Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, on Wednesday pulled back from the country’s goal of putting Georgia and Ukraine in Nato’s membership action plan (MAP) after opposition from some of the alliance’s European members. MAP status for Georgia and Ukraine – often seen as a staging post to joining the alliance – was a high-profile goal for President George W. Bush at Nato’s Bucharest summit in April, but the US was unable to win the backing of some countries, such as France and Germany."
Meanwhile, Russia did NOT threaten military action outright: Responding on April 11, 2008, the head of the Russian military, general Yuri Baluyevsky stated that if Georgia joins NATO, "Russia will take steps aimed at ensuring its interests along its borders and these will not only be military steps, but also steps of a different nature". This could be a hint of Russia giving nukes to Serbia, something which would be bad for France. It is impossible to imagine France and Germany risking relations with Russia over Ukraine and Georgia. Not to mention that any referendum held to join NATO in Ukraine, where the people vote, will not win. Yet to Felgenhauer it's imminent. I heard someone wanted to shorten the article, just offering my two cents. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 10:51, 5 August 2009 (UTC)
And I've just read an article, where Felgenhauer claims that Russians haven't left Afghanistan since 1989. Yup, now this guy is officially a joke. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 02:27, 15 August 2009 (UTC)
Ok seeing how this is still relevant, I went through your initial post, which, unsurprisingly, turns out to be less than solid in claiming that Felgenhauer is less than solid.
To summarize, you wall of text is half-backed WP:OR by yourself, is misrepresenting the sources and is in no way proving Felgenhauer wrong. -- Xeeron ( talk) 17:25, 16 August 2009 (UTC)
Perhaps this will focus the discussion on more fruitful endeavors. If it is conceded that everyone including Russia knew that Georgia and Ukraine were to enter NATO, then it can be seen that it still remains to be proven that Russia's subsequent actions were based on this knowledge. Even if everyone was all in agreement that yes, there is an obvious connection, and all felt that the one thing proves the other, it would still be an opinion, and an unscholarly non-notable opinion at that.
Inclusion of a statement from a scholar to that effect is a whole other thing, and I will not get involved in that discussion yet, other than to say that for the most part, such statements should be a reflection of a wide consensus, and not a single scholar's idea. Anarchangel ( talk) 01:53, 23 August 2009 (UTC)
Here's another article by Felgenhauer: "Of course, today Russia is too weak to seriously exploit the new rift in the West. But many in Moscow are happy to see it happen: The dream of a "multipolar" world seems to be materializing. France, Germany, China, Russia, the Vatican -- i.e. all, or almost all, world centers of power with the exception of Washington are joining forces to prevent the U.S. war machine from rolling Hussein out of office." Yes - fear the might of The Vatican, against the US War Machine.
And here's Felgenhauer completely ignoring the US Civil Rights Movement: "I lived for almost 40 years under a totalitarian regime, and I know from first-hand experience what life without freedom means. Anti-war protesters in Western Europe and America do not know and could not care less." Yeah, you anti-war protesters that marched with Martin Luther King Jr. You clearly know nothing of the oppression poor, poor Pasha had to face.
"Only by military means can millions of Iraqis be released from total servitude, and Hussein destroyed along with his Baath party that has ruled Iraq since 1958. If there ever existed such a thing as a "just war" then the coming U.S.-led invasion of Iraq could be the most righteous of them all." - yeah so if you're one of the people who lost a loved one, after all a million Iraqis died, remember - the US fought a "just war" according to Felgenhauer.
Felgenhauer's analogy, Hussein is Hitler: "It's easy to envisage a similar scenario in 1944: After the liberation of France and Belgium, the war could have stopped at the borders of Hitler's Reich. A ceasefire could have been signed (the Germans were at the time actively trying to start negotiations to organize such a ceasefire). A UN inspection team could have been deployed to destroy Hitler's ballistic missiles and other weapons of mass destruction. Hitler and his party would have continued to rule in Berlin and would surely have played games with UN arms inspectors, using underground factories and so on. Western pacifists, the Vatican and all those that today adamantly oppose the liberation of Iraq by force would surely have liked an outcome that would have left Hitler in power and saved many German lives and German cities. The Germans were in fact liberated against their own will -- the majority continued to support Hitler to the bloody end." - yeah, all those 100 million Americans, such as, dare I say it, Barack Obama, you Hitler Appeasers you. Felgenhauer the military analyst knows it all.
"If Chirac and other French politicians had had their way, Hussein could have made tens of nuclear bombs by 1990." - How does he know? Oh I get it, according to Biophys, Felgenhauer is a military analyst, so we must trust him blindly. Well Hitler was a military analyst too. See, I can also do grotesque analogies.
And this is the guy, whom, according to Biophys, Xeeron, Kober, et al, we should trust, like the Nazis trusted Hitler, because "Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst" and he's damn good at lying and bullshitting. To quote Jon Stewart: "Don't these idiots know we're recodring this stuff?"
Source: http://www.cdi.org/russia/244-4.cfm
Now, we can remove Felgenhauer from this article, or I can post more embarrassing stuff about him. Your choice, because I have the time, and I have the library of his stuff, oh boy do I have the library. Like for instance Russia and Ukraine are about to go at it, according to Felgenhauer: http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=163037 How's your hero doing now Biophys, Xeeron, Kober, Kouber, et al? HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 07:02, 24 August 2009 (UTC)
And here's Xeeron the flip-flopper. From the Felgenhauer argument:
"Georgia–NATO relations says (talking about the NATO summit in April 2008): "Instead NATO countries assured the Georgian side in a special communiqué that they would eventually join the alliance once the requirement for membership were met." (my emphasis)"
And from the Allison argument:
"It is not helping this article any bit having to spend time replying to your fantasies. You seem immersed in a world different from reality. Would you have any real interest in the topic, other than pushing your extreme POV, you might have noticed that Georgia does not have a MAP. It is as simple as checking the wiki pages on the topic. Your POV driven attempts to paint only peer-reviewed source in the analyst section as fringe are ridiculous."
And recently, Xeeron undid my edit on Felgenhauer. So according to Xeeron the intelligent, despite Georgia not having a MAP, Felgenhauer's unsupported claim that Russia attacked Georgia because Russia feared that Georgia might join NATO, despite Georgia not having a MAP, which takes at least two years to complete, was the reason that Russia attacked Georgia on the eve of the Chinese Olympics. When I tried to remove Felgenhauer from the article, Xeeron, who earlier stated that he won't start an edit war over this, placed him back in, for the fifth time. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 21:39, 30 August 2009 (UTC)
Going back to the original topic, of removing the disgrace that Felgenhauer is, a point that opposing editors don't want to debate, Xeeron and Kober would rather make Ad Hominems against me than actually engage in intelligent debate, here's an argument that discredits Felgenhauer's whole theory: http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/2008-151-12.cfm
"Pavel Felgenhauer’s conspiracy theory has several major wholes in it. First of all, it relies on the false assumption that contingency plans constitute decided actions. This is the same mistake made by those who supported the various conspiracy theories surrounding the August 1991 party-siloviki putsch against Gorbachev and Yeltsin. More or less normal contingency plans for instituting emergency rule and martial law were loosely interpreted as plans to implement them at a soon-to-be-determined time and place.
Second, the entire Russian ‘plan’ would have been undone, if Saakashvili had agreed to sign the agreement proposed by Russia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia to reject the use of force to resolve Georgia’s self-made‘frozen conflicts.’ It was Saakashvili’s willingness to use force that allowed him, if he indeed was, to be sucked into using force. This means that he was as complicit as the Russians were in the frozen conflict’s thaw and devolution into violence. Both sides were spoiling for a fight and to one extent or another were doing their best to bait the other side into flagrantly breaking the ceasefire by way of a major incursion. In other words, it is unclear who entrapped whom. As usual a certain ilk of ‘analyst’ is willing to entertain this possibility in relation to the Russian side; for that ilk the Russians are always entirely to blame, and the West and whomever the present administration has designated an ally are not.
Felgenhauer mentions Russia's April tranfer of unarmed troops to Abkhazia to make repairs of the Abkhaz railroad for transport of Russian military equipment and the shooting down of the Israeli-suppled recon drones. He neglects to mention that if the railraod repairs were preparation for war, what were the recon flights for?
He mentions the Russian 58th army's maneuvers, but neglects the American-Georgian military excercies being conducted at the same time. One is seen as preparation for war, the other is ignored. Clearly both were intended as general preparation in the even of war. It is possible that niether or both were part of mobilization for an already planned attack. Felgenhauer neglects the fact that Georgian forces stepped up their activities and moved heavy artillery closer to Tskhinval during their maneuvers with U.S. forces. In RFERL writer Brian Whitmore's rehash of Felgenhauer's material he mentions that "(a)t center stage in the Russian maneuvers was...Russia's 58th Army, the very unit that would later play a key role in the incursion." This supposedly revealing 'coincdence' is intended to be further 'proof' that Russia had decidec on war. Omitted from Whitmore's piece is that any maneuvers in Russia's North Caucasus would include the 58th Army which is the nucleus of its military presence there and has been fighting Chechen separatists and Caucasus jihadists for years. American taxpayers might wonder why their hard-earned money is funding pro-Georgian propaganda by the "independent" organization "funded by the U.S. Congress"?!
Felgenhauer’s reliance on the conspiracy theories surrounding the Chechen jihadists’ long-planned invasion of Dagestan in 1999 further undermine his interpretation. The Russian did not need to goad jihadists like Shamil Basaev and global jihadist and al Qaeda operative Khattab to attack Dagestan. The Chechen and foreign jihadists had been conspiring with Dagestan jihadists’ for well over a year to establish an Islamic jamaat/caliphate in several Dagestani villages and months before their attack were declaring their intention to do so. The same conspiratorial approach surrounds that period’s Moscow and Volgadonsk apartment bombings, for which both Basaev and Khattab took responsibility by acknowledging that Dagestanis had carried it out.
These conspiracy theories are similar to those surrounding the Bush administration and Mossad and 9/11 and deserve about as much credence. That is why no semi-serious, no less serious analyst pays them much heed.
Dr. Gordon M. Hahn –Senior Researcher, Monterey Terrorism Research and Education Program and Visiting Assistant Professor, Graduate School of International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Monterey, California; Senior Researcher, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group; and Analyst/Consultant, Russia Other Points of View – Russia Media Watch, www.russiaotherpointsofview.com. Dr Hahn is author of two well-received books, Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007) and Russia’s Revolution From Above (Transaction, 2002), and numerous articles on Russian politics."
So a loser who cannot get his war predictions correctly, vs. a person who was published by Yale Press. Yale wins again or Shitversity! HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 19:23, 1 September 2009 (UTC)
Vyacheslav Borisov admitted that "now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves."
That comes from a single source, the NY Times. How did the NY Times get that information? From another discussion: Unless I see an actual quote from Borisov from a source that he actually gave the interview to, I am going to have to delete it. HistoricWarrior007 (talk) 22:45, 21 August 2009 (UTC)
I did a Google Search, found 16 references, they are: Wikipedia, New York Times, World War Four Report (I'm sorry did I miss WWIII?), Prairiepundit, Wikipedia again, Godlikeproductions, Free Republic, IISS, Townhall.com Blog, Georgian Daily, theage.com.au, Sfetcu, Wikipedia Again, a website citing Wikipedia, Jorgen Modin, and canadaspace.com. Neither of these sources had access, even remotely, to Borisov. Neither of these sources had taken Borisov's interview. Where did the quote come from? Well NY Times doesn't cite the original interview, World War Four cites the NY Times, prairie pundit cites the NY Times, Godlike Productions cite the NY Times, Free Republic cites the NY Times, IISS cites the NY Times, Townhall blog cites the NY Times, Georgian Daily cites the NY Times, The New Age source also cites the NY Times, Sfectu has his own account, Modin cited the NY Times, and all Wikipedia sources also, either directly or indirectly cited the New York Times.
So where did the quote come from? According to Sfectu, Borisov said it on August 13th. Matt Seigel printed it on August 14th. However, I cannot find an interview that Borisov on August 13th. Nor can I find Borisov giving an interview on August 14th. To me it looks like Matt Siegel just pulled that quote out of his ass.
Mark Ames describes how Matt Siegel performed his journalistic duties, in this article: http://exiledonline.com/how-to-screw-up-a-war-story-the-new-york-times-at-work/
"On the long ride down to Gori via South Ossetia, Siegel loudly and busily counted up the burned houses in ethnic Georgian villages, excitedly telling everyone, “This is what my New York Times editor wants,” running up and down the Hyundai minibus aisle. When we’d pass through Ossetian villages, he was back in his seat, on the phone loudly reporting figures into his cellphone.
When we got to Gori, we saw that it wasn’t bombed to the ground, as we’d expected. Frankly, I was shocked: after what the Russians did to Grozny during the two Chechen wars, I couldn’t believe that they wouldn’t bomb an enemy city into rubble first and ask questions later. But the fact was, compared with the ruins of Tskhinvali, Gori looked like Geneva. Siegel wasn’t interested–or, rather, his Times editor wasn’t–so he went running around looking for evidence that the Russians had dropped a cluster bomb. He thought he found that evidence–we all saw the bombshell–but apparently it wasn’t rock-solid enough for the Times editors."
And that's just one example. For those who think that Mark Ames is pro-Russian, bear in mind that his newspaper in Russia was shut down by Russian authorities.
So where did that quote come from? Why was it only quoted by the New York Times? Why didn't anyone else pick up on it? To me it just looks like Siegel pulled that quote out of his ass, considering that Borisov was busy commanding the troops to make actual interviews or press releases. Indeed not a single interview shows Borisov making that statement.
Correction: Sfetcu also cites Wikipedia, which cites the NY Times. And the NY Times has still no released a source on how they got the information.
There are no other sources confirming it. Not one source, aside from the New York Times. I believe having this quote in violates WP:FRINGE Speaking of the New York Times, how are those tapes doing? HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:41, 21 August 2009 (UTC)
Here's WP:FRINGE: "Coverage on Wikipedia should not make a fringe theory appear more notable than it actually is.[1] Since Wikipedia describes significant opinions in its articles, with representation in proportion to their prominence,[2] it is important that Wikipedia itself does not become the validating source for non-significant subjects. Other well-known, reliable, and verifiable sources that discuss an idea are required so that Wikipedia does not become the primary source for fringe theories. Furthermore, one may not be able to write about a fringe theory in a neutral manner if there are no independent secondary sources of reasonable reliability and quality about it."
Well the NY Times is the only source. We are presenting that quote, as if it actually originated from Borisov. However Borisov did not give interviews or press releases on August 13th or August 14th. In addition, half of the links flashing Borisov's statement come from Wikipedia. Thus Wikipedia is becoming the primary source for Siegel's fringe theory. Also, there are no independent second sources of any reliability and quality confirming the NY Times. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:46, 21 August 2009 (UTC)
Quoting from WP:Fringe Coverage on Wikipedia should not make a fringe theory appear more notable than it actually is.[1] Since Wikipedia describes significant opinions in its articles, with representation in proportion to their prominence,[2] it is important that Wikipedia itself does not become the validating source for non-significant subjects. Other well-known, reliable, and verifiable sources that discuss an idea are required so that Wikipedia does not become the primary source for fringe theories. Furthermore, one may not be able to write about a fringe theory in a neutral manner if there are no independent secondary sources of reasonable reliability and quality about it.
Also: "Fringe theory in a nutshell: In order to be notable enough to appear in Wikipedia, an idea should be referenced extensively, and in a serious manner, in at least one major publication, or by a notable group or individual that is independent of the theory. Even debunking or disparaging references are adequate, as they establish the notability of the theory outside of its group of adherents. "
Now let's take a look at Borisov's quote: "Vyacheslav Borisov admitted that "now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves."
Before that we have another quote: "A Russian lieutenant said on 14 August: "We have to be honest. The Ossetians are marauding." I take no issue with this quote, because, although the quote is anti-Russian, there was substantial proof of property destruction on the part of Ossetians, and property destruction is a part of marauding. I am just saying this, because I know that at some point in time, there will be a pro-Neocon editor whining about me taking out all anti-Russian sources.
So let's go back to Borisov's quote: "Vyacheslav Borisov admitted that "now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves." First off, there have been no records of mass killings of Georgians. There were records of property destruction but there were no records of mass killings of Georgians. Out of 17,500 - less than 70 died. The standard rule of warfare, is that you aren't supposed to inflict more civilian casualties, than military casualties. Georgia's lowest count of military casualties is 2,200. By contrast, Georgian civilian casualties are 228. Now if one looks at only those who were killed, one would notice that the 228 number referred to "dead or missing", in other words we don't know how many were killed and how many were missing. You also have to apply overall casualties, when dealing with above stated rule, not just those killed. In other words, there were no reports of Ossetians deliberately killing Georgians on a massive scale, as the quote by Borisov suggests.
The quote only appears in a New York Times Article. There are no secondary sources, as all of the people who are quoting it, are citing the New York Times, or this Wikipedia Article, which is also citing the New York Times. Wikipedia rule states: "In order to be notable enough to appear in Wikipedia, an idea should be referenced extensively, and in a serious manner, in at least one major publication, or by a notable group or individual that is independent of the theory." I do not dispute that the NY Times is a major publication. But was the idea referenced in a serious manner? Not really, it was a quote from a second-string correspondent. And it wasn't referenced extensively. In fact, it was only printed in a single article. So the quote clearly fails the test of being "referenced extensively". Nor are there any debunking sources. The quote clearly breaks WP:Fringe.
But it doesn't stop there. Our article makes the fringe theory appear extremely notable. So notable that roughly half of the citations of the quote come not from the NY Times, but from Wikipedia. In short, our article is an engine driving that fringe theory forward, and Wikipedia is one of the two primary sources for it, the other being the NY Times. There are no other well-known, reliable and verifiable sources that discuss the idea. Furthermore our article presents this fringe theory as a fact! I have not seen a clearer case of WP:Fringe than the one regarding Borisov's quote. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 22:42, 28 August 2009 (UTC)
I don't this is such a huge issue. The Borisov quote is clearly unnecessary, since the previous sentence says basically the same (that the Ossetians are marauding.) One editor presented concerns about the quote (and I tend to agree), so there shouldn't be much of a problem with removing it. Offliner ( talk) 18:07, 31 August 2009 (UTC)
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Archive 25 | Archive 26 | Archive 27 | Archive 28 | Archive 29 | Archive 30 | → | Archive 35 |
When analysts write blogs, they don't commit the same resources that they would commit to scholarly articles. In order to be a published, a blog needs to be checked for spelling, and occasionally grammar. In order to be published, an actual analytical source needs to be checked for content; blogs are never checked for content, therefore blogs don't qualify. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 21:33, 15 August 2009 (UTC)
First off, the people who interpret a treaty, are the ones who write it. Not allies of the ones who write it. This treaty was written by Sarkozy and Medvedev. The British had no say in it. Georgia had no say in it, as Saakashvili was just shown the final treaty and asked to accept it. The treaty was heralded as a talk between Russian and the European Union. However the EU's representative for the treaty was Sarkozy. Not the House of Lords. Thus only Sarkozy can say whether Russia broke the treaty terms or not. Representatives of organizations have different opinions. The British and the French generally have different standards of interpretation. For instance Britain calls the Iraq War legal, France calls it illegal, using the exact same documents. By signing with Sarkozy, Medvedev was yielding to French, not British interpretation. If Britain was the EU representative, Russia would not have signed the treaty.
According to Xeeron's and Kouber's logic, "Who signed the peace threaty (btw Sarkozy did, as representative of the EU, hint GB is part of that), is irrelevant, the house of Lords can issue reports without HistoricWarrior's approval." Well Medvedev signed the peace treaty (or threaty) on as representative of the Russian Coalition that won the war, hint LDPR is part of that.) So I guess we should also state what Zhirinovsky thinks about the treaty, he has as much credibility on this as the House of Lords. And while the House of Lords can issue reports without my approval, those reports still have to be accurate. Svante Cornell can fantasize about millions of Russian troops flooding Georgia, and he doesn't need my approval for that, but it's still grossly inaccurate.
Contrary to Xeeron and Kouber, commons sense states that who signed the treaty is extremely relevant. United Russia spokesperson, I forget which one, stated that if Poland chaired the EU, Russia wouldn't sign the treaty, err I mean threaty. The same could be said of Britain, with whom Russia is not on the best of terms.
When interpreting a document, be it a treaty or threaty, one looks for the original meaning of it. That's the legal concept accepted in Universal Jurisprudence. Who better, to interpret the confusing parts of a document, than its writer? No one! This is common sense so basic, that it doesn't even need to be mentioned, but with Xeeron's and Kouber's POV, even the most basic common sense needs explaining. Troops still don't fly. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 00:31, 22 July 2009 (UTC)
As per the Six Point Peace Plan, points 5 and 6 state:
5. Russian armed forces to withdraw to the positions held before hostilities began in South Ossetia. Russian peacekeepers to implement additional security measures until an international monitoring mechanism is in place. Sarkozy: These measures affect only the immediate vicinity of South Ossetia and in no instance the entire territory of Georgia.
6. The opening of international discussions on the modalities of security and stability of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
In other words, if Russia recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, they get to keep their troops there, it's not a violation. Russia's and Nicaragua's recognition qualify as an international mechanism. Which means they no longer have to be peacekeepers. In addition, South Ossetia definitely qualifies as the immediate vicinity of South Ossetia. Sarkozy was mainly worried about Russia occupying Georgia Proper, as such occupation might threaten French Interests, he didn't really care about Russia being in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. The House of Lords may have cared, but I don't recall anyone even remotely asking the House of Lords for anything in this war. Certainly not the French or Russians. Thus it's irrelevant, this is an encyclopedia, not the mouthpiece of the House of Lords. Shall I go and write Zhirinovsky's comments on the Independence of Ireland? If not, why are putting the House of Lords here? The language is crystal clear, there's really no need to make stuff up.
I do find it hilarious that both Xeeron and Kouber find Russia's statement that "we will intervene if you attack South Ossetia and/or Abkhazia" not significant enough to be placed in the introduction, but a House of Lords report on a treaty in which the House of Lords has no say in, and never had a say in, is somehow significant. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 03:29, 22 July 2009 (UTC)
I don't know why it seems different editors are citing different results but it still suffers the same problem of being a complete Google search. I have always looked at the Google News search results since those don't give results more than a few months old and the most common name in the media is almost always the name used in the history books. Here are the results I got:
Now, I don't care what name you think it should be changed to but it seems pretty clear to me that South Ossetia War loses.-- The Devil's Advocate ( talk) 04:33, 3 August 2009 (UTC)
"South Ossetia" has always been, and continues to be, the least used of the names. However, on wikipedia, a determined opposition can always block the move, that is why I don't see the title change anytime soon.
Regarding "academic sources", here are the latest Google scholar numbers:
Whether you use normal google, google news or google scholar, the gist stays the same: South Ossetia war is, by far, the least used of those names. -- Xeeron ( talk) 09:11, 8 August 2009 (UTC)
Hit count numbers alone can only rarely "prove" anything about notability, without further discussion of the type of hits, what's been searched for, how it was searched, and what interpretation to give the results. On the other hand, examining the types of hit arising (or their lack) often does provide useful information related to notability.
Oh my, this discussion again. Anyway I would suggest August war. It overwhelms current title in google scholar 13 vs 82 making it clearly more widely used, and no nonsensical counterarguments about painting Russia as "agressor" (which seemed to be main reason why some editors took opposing stance against "Russia-Georgia war") or whatever can be used against it without looking like total moron as its as neutral as you can get.-- Staberinde ( talk) 20:22, 18 August 2009 (UTC)
Stuff like this really drains my will to edit here. -- Xeeron ( talk) 11:34, 4 August 2009 (UTC)
You can look for deletion logs for these files to determine the reason, which in most cases is the license/copyright problems. See for example here.
Here is the discussion that led to the deletion of all those pics: [2]. In short, the permission given by the ministry did not allow commercial use, but that is a requirement in Wikipedia. If you see good pics anywhere, send the copyright owner a message similar to the ones listed here and maybe they will agree to release the pics. I once managed to get initial permissions from osinform.ru and Arkady Babchenko, but WP voluenteers handling the permissions wanted a more formal response, and when I asked for it, I got no reply anymore. Offliner ( talk) 00:09, 5 August 2009 (UTC)
Seems that the centenary has upped the topic in the news again. Here are 3 pieces:
Don't think they need to go into the article, but it is interesting how different the evaluations still are. -- Xeeron ( talk) 11:21, 8 August 2009 (UTC)
I think the Fajardo Arcticle would be a great addition in the Media War section. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 06:35, 24 August 2009 (UTC)
I think this interview has a good summary of the legal aspects of the war, as well as of the media coverage. It's interesting that the US and UK blocked all of Russia's Security Council proposals, which demanded Georgia to stop the attack. (According to Professor Petro, this means that Russia's reaction was appropriate and proportionate, because the international community failed to act, and therefore unilateral action was necessary.) The Security Council stuff was dropped from the article long time ago for size reasons, but I'm starting to think that some if it should be brought back, but I'm not sure in which form. I also inserted Petro's analysis of Western media coverage and how it changed over time (this is another thing that was lacking in the article.) Offliner ( talk) 10:07, 19 August 2009 (UTC)
This is a good article from him as well. It has analysis about how Georgia conducted the media war and it even has some pieces of info that are new to me, such as "Georgia cut off water supplies to Tskhinvali already in July", and "Georgian hackers shut down Ossetian news sites early on 5 August". Offliner ( talk) 08:18, 20 August 2009 (UTC)
Back on topic, I think this part of the interview should be included: "The overall perceptions [the average] American has of Russia is far less judgmental than that of the media or the policy making elite, since most people see little connection between Russia’s problems in the Caucasus, and their own lives...Sadly, while the facts regarding Georgia’s aggression are somewhat better known today, Western pundits and politicians remain ignorant of the history of the region and it peoples, and hence of the deeper roots of the conflict."
First of, it's true. Petro most likely conducted the study amongst his college students, for the first part of the statement, and anyone who watches America's TV channels, most notably CNN, can confirm the second part. I had a copy of the Times delivered, on August 8th, showing pictures of Georgian women in blood, (which were later proven fake, but no apology was given by the newspaper). I have unsubscribed from the newspaper that day, but previously I received it on a regular basis. Either way, living in the US, I can say that both statements are true. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:12, 29 August 2009 (UTC)
"Flag of the United Kingdom Roy Allison wrote in International Affairs that there is strong evidence that the Russian invasion of South Ossetia and then deeper into Georgia was indeed planned and even expected rather than spontaneous and improvised. However, the exact timing of the intervention during August–September may not have been of Moscow’s choosing, if for example South Ossetian forces were impatient to instigate a conflict in July–August to give Russia a pretext for intervention and could not be effectively controlled. Regarding the events of August 7/8, Allison states that "Moscow’s insistence that its forces did not cross the Georgian border until Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali were in severe jeopardy has gained quite wide acceptance internationally. The Georgian claim has, however, been strengthened by the release of telephone intercepts (lost for a month in the chaos of combat) indicating that at least part of a Russian armoured regiment had crossed into South Ossetia by late on 7 August." In the light of the Russian occupation of uncontested Georgian territory, its claim to realize the peacekeeping function assumed in the Sochi agreements is described as "increasingly surreal". Russia's goals in the war are described as manyfold: Restoring the security of its peacekeepers and 'citizens' in South Ossetia, the establishment of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as military protectorates, a weakening of Georgia's strategic position (as a mean to disuade NATO from offering a MAP to Georgia and to diminish the attractiveness of the energy transit corridor from the Caspian) and bringing down the government of President Saakashvili.[273]"
NATO already offered a MAP to Georgia. In an article, that you, Xeeron, cited earlier: http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/2008/p08-049e.html from this I get: "We will begin talks immediately with the aim of signing Accession Protocols by the end of July 2008 and completing the ratification process without delay. During the period leading up to accession, NATO will involve the invited countries in Alliance activities to the greatest extent possible, and will continue to provide support and assistance, including through the Membership Action Plan (MAP). We look forward to receiving the invited countries' timetables for reform, upon which further progress will be expected before, and after, accession in order to enhance their contribution to the Alliance."
So in July 2008, Georgia and Ukraine go on MAP. In August, according to sources cited by Xeeron, Russia invades Georgia, in order to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from going on MAP. Xeeron, I'm not entirely sure you're aware of this, but July actually comes before August. In other words, Russia cannot attack Georgia in August, to dissuade the European countries from offering a MAP to Georgia in July. Dude, do you at least bother to read your own sources? Do you think Wikipedia's a joke or something? At this point in the debate, I am using your own sources and common sense against you. Are you sure you want to keep going? HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:18, 24 August 2009 (UTC)
And Allison's bias comes out: Mr. Allison still view the World in Black and White, in NATO and non-NATO terms. Here's his paper with a certain Svante Cornell: http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/vol14no3.pdf For instance, Mr. Allison believes that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been largely ineffective. It has been so ineffective, that Mongolia, Iran, Pakistan and India hold observer positions while ASEAN is an honorary guest. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is so "ineffective", that it stabilized the borders of its members. In addition Mr. Allison heavily relies on reports from the Jamestown Foundation, which is already over-represented in this article. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 05:45, 26 August 2009 (UTC)
From the Article:
Flag of Russia On 14 August, 2008, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, biologist by training, observer of Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta and regular contributor to U.S. based think-tank Jamestown Foundation speculated in a Novaya Gazeta article that "Russia's invasion of Georgia had been planned in advance, with the final political decision to complete the preparations and start war in August apparently having been made back in April."
Felgenhauer is not a "Russian military analyst". He does not have a military history degree. He does not teach, nor do military researches. He is a regular contributor to the Jamestown Foundation, but since when does that make you a Russian military analyst? I am not against him being included, but first off, the flag should be American, not Russian, as the article was written by Felgenhauer as an employee of/contributor to The Jamestown Foundation, which isn't Russian. I guess credentials don't matter anymore.
Here is a gem by PF: http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ncw/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=1348&tx_ttnews[backPid]=184&no_cache=1 (yeah guys, Russia is definitely losing the Second Chechen War according to Felgenhauer, whoopsie, I guess he called that one wrong.)
And from 1999: Only one prominent writer, the Moscow-based independent defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, has called attention to its importance, in the English-language "St. Petersburg Times." In that article, Felgenhauer called Putin "an irrational warmonger--a leader who..." (Yeah Putin, stabilizing and increasing the living standards of Russian citizens in the Caucasian region, you irrational warmonger you!)
I don't think Felgenhauer, writing for the Jamestown Foundation, qualifies as a Russian source. In addition, Felgenhauer speculated that: "Russia's invasion of Georgia had been planned in advance, with the final political decision to complete the preparations and start war in August apparently having been made back in April". Felgenhauer bases this claim on the fact that "in April Russia understood that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually join NATO". It's great that Felgenhauer understood what the rest of the World missed, because France and Germany were willing to VETO Georgia's membership. As would Spain and Greece. Here is an article that Felgenhauer apparently missed: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0115117020080401?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews "France will not give its green light to the entry of Ukraine and Georgia," Fillon told France Inter radio."France has an opinion which is different from that of the United States on this question." "We are opposed to the entry of Georgia and Ukraine because we think it is not the right response to the balance of power in Europe and between Europe and Russia, and we want to have a dialogue on this subject with Russia," Fillon said.
It is hard to believe that France alone would go against the US, without any backing. The reason here being is that France and Germany would much rather find a middle ground between the US and Russia, then take the side of the US. Russia and France aren't threats to each other, and, outside Kosovo, don't have conflicting interests. Same can be said for Russia and Germany. Even more can be said of Russia's relationship with Greece and Spain. Perhaps Felgenhauer can explain this article for me: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b48201e0-bc00-11dd-80e9-0000779fd18c,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fb48201e0-bc00-11dd-80e9-0000779fd18c.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FGeorgia%25E2%2580%2593NATO_relations&nclick_check=1 which states that, well here, I'll quote: "Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, on Wednesday pulled back from the country’s goal of putting Georgia and Ukraine in Nato’s membership action plan (MAP) after opposition from some of the alliance’s European members. MAP status for Georgia and Ukraine – often seen as a staging post to joining the alliance – was a high-profile goal for President George W. Bush at Nato’s Bucharest summit in April, but the US was unable to win the backing of some countries, such as France and Germany."
Meanwhile, Russia did NOT threaten military action outright: Responding on April 11, 2008, the head of the Russian military, general Yuri Baluyevsky stated that if Georgia joins NATO, "Russia will take steps aimed at ensuring its interests along its borders and these will not only be military steps, but also steps of a different nature". This could be a hint of Russia giving nukes to Serbia, something which would be bad for France. It is impossible to imagine France and Germany risking relations with Russia over Ukraine and Georgia. Not to mention that any referendum held to join NATO in Ukraine, where the people vote, will not win. Yet to Felgenhauer it's imminent. I heard someone wanted to shorten the article, just offering my two cents. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 10:51, 5 August 2009 (UTC)
And I've just read an article, where Felgenhauer claims that Russians haven't left Afghanistan since 1989. Yup, now this guy is officially a joke. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 02:27, 15 August 2009 (UTC)
Ok seeing how this is still relevant, I went through your initial post, which, unsurprisingly, turns out to be less than solid in claiming that Felgenhauer is less than solid.
To summarize, you wall of text is half-backed WP:OR by yourself, is misrepresenting the sources and is in no way proving Felgenhauer wrong. -- Xeeron ( talk) 17:25, 16 August 2009 (UTC)
Perhaps this will focus the discussion on more fruitful endeavors. If it is conceded that everyone including Russia knew that Georgia and Ukraine were to enter NATO, then it can be seen that it still remains to be proven that Russia's subsequent actions were based on this knowledge. Even if everyone was all in agreement that yes, there is an obvious connection, and all felt that the one thing proves the other, it would still be an opinion, and an unscholarly non-notable opinion at that.
Inclusion of a statement from a scholar to that effect is a whole other thing, and I will not get involved in that discussion yet, other than to say that for the most part, such statements should be a reflection of a wide consensus, and not a single scholar's idea. Anarchangel ( talk) 01:53, 23 August 2009 (UTC)
Here's another article by Felgenhauer: "Of course, today Russia is too weak to seriously exploit the new rift in the West. But many in Moscow are happy to see it happen: The dream of a "multipolar" world seems to be materializing. France, Germany, China, Russia, the Vatican -- i.e. all, or almost all, world centers of power with the exception of Washington are joining forces to prevent the U.S. war machine from rolling Hussein out of office." Yes - fear the might of The Vatican, against the US War Machine.
And here's Felgenhauer completely ignoring the US Civil Rights Movement: "I lived for almost 40 years under a totalitarian regime, and I know from first-hand experience what life without freedom means. Anti-war protesters in Western Europe and America do not know and could not care less." Yeah, you anti-war protesters that marched with Martin Luther King Jr. You clearly know nothing of the oppression poor, poor Pasha had to face.
"Only by military means can millions of Iraqis be released from total servitude, and Hussein destroyed along with his Baath party that has ruled Iraq since 1958. If there ever existed such a thing as a "just war" then the coming U.S.-led invasion of Iraq could be the most righteous of them all." - yeah so if you're one of the people who lost a loved one, after all a million Iraqis died, remember - the US fought a "just war" according to Felgenhauer.
Felgenhauer's analogy, Hussein is Hitler: "It's easy to envisage a similar scenario in 1944: After the liberation of France and Belgium, the war could have stopped at the borders of Hitler's Reich. A ceasefire could have been signed (the Germans were at the time actively trying to start negotiations to organize such a ceasefire). A UN inspection team could have been deployed to destroy Hitler's ballistic missiles and other weapons of mass destruction. Hitler and his party would have continued to rule in Berlin and would surely have played games with UN arms inspectors, using underground factories and so on. Western pacifists, the Vatican and all those that today adamantly oppose the liberation of Iraq by force would surely have liked an outcome that would have left Hitler in power and saved many German lives and German cities. The Germans were in fact liberated against their own will -- the majority continued to support Hitler to the bloody end." - yeah, all those 100 million Americans, such as, dare I say it, Barack Obama, you Hitler Appeasers you. Felgenhauer the military analyst knows it all.
"If Chirac and other French politicians had had their way, Hussein could have made tens of nuclear bombs by 1990." - How does he know? Oh I get it, according to Biophys, Felgenhauer is a military analyst, so we must trust him blindly. Well Hitler was a military analyst too. See, I can also do grotesque analogies.
And this is the guy, whom, according to Biophys, Xeeron, Kober, et al, we should trust, like the Nazis trusted Hitler, because "Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst" and he's damn good at lying and bullshitting. To quote Jon Stewart: "Don't these idiots know we're recodring this stuff?"
Source: http://www.cdi.org/russia/244-4.cfm
Now, we can remove Felgenhauer from this article, or I can post more embarrassing stuff about him. Your choice, because I have the time, and I have the library of his stuff, oh boy do I have the library. Like for instance Russia and Ukraine are about to go at it, according to Felgenhauer: http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=163037 How's your hero doing now Biophys, Xeeron, Kober, Kouber, et al? HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 07:02, 24 August 2009 (UTC)
And here's Xeeron the flip-flopper. From the Felgenhauer argument:
"Georgia–NATO relations says (talking about the NATO summit in April 2008): "Instead NATO countries assured the Georgian side in a special communiqué that they would eventually join the alliance once the requirement for membership were met." (my emphasis)"
And from the Allison argument:
"It is not helping this article any bit having to spend time replying to your fantasies. You seem immersed in a world different from reality. Would you have any real interest in the topic, other than pushing your extreme POV, you might have noticed that Georgia does not have a MAP. It is as simple as checking the wiki pages on the topic. Your POV driven attempts to paint only peer-reviewed source in the analyst section as fringe are ridiculous."
And recently, Xeeron undid my edit on Felgenhauer. So according to Xeeron the intelligent, despite Georgia not having a MAP, Felgenhauer's unsupported claim that Russia attacked Georgia because Russia feared that Georgia might join NATO, despite Georgia not having a MAP, which takes at least two years to complete, was the reason that Russia attacked Georgia on the eve of the Chinese Olympics. When I tried to remove Felgenhauer from the article, Xeeron, who earlier stated that he won't start an edit war over this, placed him back in, for the fifth time. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 21:39, 30 August 2009 (UTC)
Going back to the original topic, of removing the disgrace that Felgenhauer is, a point that opposing editors don't want to debate, Xeeron and Kober would rather make Ad Hominems against me than actually engage in intelligent debate, here's an argument that discredits Felgenhauer's whole theory: http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/2008-151-12.cfm
"Pavel Felgenhauer’s conspiracy theory has several major wholes in it. First of all, it relies on the false assumption that contingency plans constitute decided actions. This is the same mistake made by those who supported the various conspiracy theories surrounding the August 1991 party-siloviki putsch against Gorbachev and Yeltsin. More or less normal contingency plans for instituting emergency rule and martial law were loosely interpreted as plans to implement them at a soon-to-be-determined time and place.
Second, the entire Russian ‘plan’ would have been undone, if Saakashvili had agreed to sign the agreement proposed by Russia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia to reject the use of force to resolve Georgia’s self-made‘frozen conflicts.’ It was Saakashvili’s willingness to use force that allowed him, if he indeed was, to be sucked into using force. This means that he was as complicit as the Russians were in the frozen conflict’s thaw and devolution into violence. Both sides were spoiling for a fight and to one extent or another were doing their best to bait the other side into flagrantly breaking the ceasefire by way of a major incursion. In other words, it is unclear who entrapped whom. As usual a certain ilk of ‘analyst’ is willing to entertain this possibility in relation to the Russian side; for that ilk the Russians are always entirely to blame, and the West and whomever the present administration has designated an ally are not.
Felgenhauer mentions Russia's April tranfer of unarmed troops to Abkhazia to make repairs of the Abkhaz railroad for transport of Russian military equipment and the shooting down of the Israeli-suppled recon drones. He neglects to mention that if the railraod repairs were preparation for war, what were the recon flights for?
He mentions the Russian 58th army's maneuvers, but neglects the American-Georgian military excercies being conducted at the same time. One is seen as preparation for war, the other is ignored. Clearly both were intended as general preparation in the even of war. It is possible that niether or both were part of mobilization for an already planned attack. Felgenhauer neglects the fact that Georgian forces stepped up their activities and moved heavy artillery closer to Tskhinval during their maneuvers with U.S. forces. In RFERL writer Brian Whitmore's rehash of Felgenhauer's material he mentions that "(a)t center stage in the Russian maneuvers was...Russia's 58th Army, the very unit that would later play a key role in the incursion." This supposedly revealing 'coincdence' is intended to be further 'proof' that Russia had decidec on war. Omitted from Whitmore's piece is that any maneuvers in Russia's North Caucasus would include the 58th Army which is the nucleus of its military presence there and has been fighting Chechen separatists and Caucasus jihadists for years. American taxpayers might wonder why their hard-earned money is funding pro-Georgian propaganda by the "independent" organization "funded by the U.S. Congress"?!
Felgenhauer’s reliance on the conspiracy theories surrounding the Chechen jihadists’ long-planned invasion of Dagestan in 1999 further undermine his interpretation. The Russian did not need to goad jihadists like Shamil Basaev and global jihadist and al Qaeda operative Khattab to attack Dagestan. The Chechen and foreign jihadists had been conspiring with Dagestan jihadists’ for well over a year to establish an Islamic jamaat/caliphate in several Dagestani villages and months before their attack were declaring their intention to do so. The same conspiratorial approach surrounds that period’s Moscow and Volgadonsk apartment bombings, for which both Basaev and Khattab took responsibility by acknowledging that Dagestanis had carried it out.
These conspiracy theories are similar to those surrounding the Bush administration and Mossad and 9/11 and deserve about as much credence. That is why no semi-serious, no less serious analyst pays them much heed.
Dr. Gordon M. Hahn –Senior Researcher, Monterey Terrorism Research and Education Program and Visiting Assistant Professor, Graduate School of International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Monterey, California; Senior Researcher, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group; and Analyst/Consultant, Russia Other Points of View – Russia Media Watch, www.russiaotherpointsofview.com. Dr Hahn is author of two well-received books, Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007) and Russia’s Revolution From Above (Transaction, 2002), and numerous articles on Russian politics."
So a loser who cannot get his war predictions correctly, vs. a person who was published by Yale Press. Yale wins again or Shitversity! HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 19:23, 1 September 2009 (UTC)
Vyacheslav Borisov admitted that "now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves."
That comes from a single source, the NY Times. How did the NY Times get that information? From another discussion: Unless I see an actual quote from Borisov from a source that he actually gave the interview to, I am going to have to delete it. HistoricWarrior007 (talk) 22:45, 21 August 2009 (UTC)
I did a Google Search, found 16 references, they are: Wikipedia, New York Times, World War Four Report (I'm sorry did I miss WWIII?), Prairiepundit, Wikipedia again, Godlikeproductions, Free Republic, IISS, Townhall.com Blog, Georgian Daily, theage.com.au, Sfetcu, Wikipedia Again, a website citing Wikipedia, Jorgen Modin, and canadaspace.com. Neither of these sources had access, even remotely, to Borisov. Neither of these sources had taken Borisov's interview. Where did the quote come from? Well NY Times doesn't cite the original interview, World War Four cites the NY Times, prairie pundit cites the NY Times, Godlike Productions cite the NY Times, Free Republic cites the NY Times, IISS cites the NY Times, Townhall blog cites the NY Times, Georgian Daily cites the NY Times, The New Age source also cites the NY Times, Sfectu has his own account, Modin cited the NY Times, and all Wikipedia sources also, either directly or indirectly cited the New York Times.
So where did the quote come from? According to Sfectu, Borisov said it on August 13th. Matt Seigel printed it on August 14th. However, I cannot find an interview that Borisov on August 13th. Nor can I find Borisov giving an interview on August 14th. To me it looks like Matt Siegel just pulled that quote out of his ass.
Mark Ames describes how Matt Siegel performed his journalistic duties, in this article: http://exiledonline.com/how-to-screw-up-a-war-story-the-new-york-times-at-work/
"On the long ride down to Gori via South Ossetia, Siegel loudly and busily counted up the burned houses in ethnic Georgian villages, excitedly telling everyone, “This is what my New York Times editor wants,” running up and down the Hyundai minibus aisle. When we’d pass through Ossetian villages, he was back in his seat, on the phone loudly reporting figures into his cellphone.
When we got to Gori, we saw that it wasn’t bombed to the ground, as we’d expected. Frankly, I was shocked: after what the Russians did to Grozny during the two Chechen wars, I couldn’t believe that they wouldn’t bomb an enemy city into rubble first and ask questions later. But the fact was, compared with the ruins of Tskhinvali, Gori looked like Geneva. Siegel wasn’t interested–or, rather, his Times editor wasn’t–so he went running around looking for evidence that the Russians had dropped a cluster bomb. He thought he found that evidence–we all saw the bombshell–but apparently it wasn’t rock-solid enough for the Times editors."
And that's just one example. For those who think that Mark Ames is pro-Russian, bear in mind that his newspaper in Russia was shut down by Russian authorities.
So where did that quote come from? Why was it only quoted by the New York Times? Why didn't anyone else pick up on it? To me it just looks like Siegel pulled that quote out of his ass, considering that Borisov was busy commanding the troops to make actual interviews or press releases. Indeed not a single interview shows Borisov making that statement.
Correction: Sfetcu also cites Wikipedia, which cites the NY Times. And the NY Times has still no released a source on how they got the information.
There are no other sources confirming it. Not one source, aside from the New York Times. I believe having this quote in violates WP:FRINGE Speaking of the New York Times, how are those tapes doing? HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:41, 21 August 2009 (UTC)
Here's WP:FRINGE: "Coverage on Wikipedia should not make a fringe theory appear more notable than it actually is.[1] Since Wikipedia describes significant opinions in its articles, with representation in proportion to their prominence,[2] it is important that Wikipedia itself does not become the validating source for non-significant subjects. Other well-known, reliable, and verifiable sources that discuss an idea are required so that Wikipedia does not become the primary source for fringe theories. Furthermore, one may not be able to write about a fringe theory in a neutral manner if there are no independent secondary sources of reasonable reliability and quality about it."
Well the NY Times is the only source. We are presenting that quote, as if it actually originated from Borisov. However Borisov did not give interviews or press releases on August 13th or August 14th. In addition, half of the links flashing Borisov's statement come from Wikipedia. Thus Wikipedia is becoming the primary source for Siegel's fringe theory. Also, there are no independent second sources of any reliability and quality confirming the NY Times. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 23:46, 21 August 2009 (UTC)
Quoting from WP:Fringe Coverage on Wikipedia should not make a fringe theory appear more notable than it actually is.[1] Since Wikipedia describes significant opinions in its articles, with representation in proportion to their prominence,[2] it is important that Wikipedia itself does not become the validating source for non-significant subjects. Other well-known, reliable, and verifiable sources that discuss an idea are required so that Wikipedia does not become the primary source for fringe theories. Furthermore, one may not be able to write about a fringe theory in a neutral manner if there are no independent secondary sources of reasonable reliability and quality about it.
Also: "Fringe theory in a nutshell: In order to be notable enough to appear in Wikipedia, an idea should be referenced extensively, and in a serious manner, in at least one major publication, or by a notable group or individual that is independent of the theory. Even debunking or disparaging references are adequate, as they establish the notability of the theory outside of its group of adherents. "
Now let's take a look at Borisov's quote: "Vyacheslav Borisov admitted that "now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves."
Before that we have another quote: "A Russian lieutenant said on 14 August: "We have to be honest. The Ossetians are marauding." I take no issue with this quote, because, although the quote is anti-Russian, there was substantial proof of property destruction on the part of Ossetians, and property destruction is a part of marauding. I am just saying this, because I know that at some point in time, there will be a pro-Neocon editor whining about me taking out all anti-Russian sources.
So let's go back to Borisov's quote: "Vyacheslav Borisov admitted that "now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves." First off, there have been no records of mass killings of Georgians. There were records of property destruction but there were no records of mass killings of Georgians. Out of 17,500 - less than 70 died. The standard rule of warfare, is that you aren't supposed to inflict more civilian casualties, than military casualties. Georgia's lowest count of military casualties is 2,200. By contrast, Georgian civilian casualties are 228. Now if one looks at only those who were killed, one would notice that the 228 number referred to "dead or missing", in other words we don't know how many were killed and how many were missing. You also have to apply overall casualties, when dealing with above stated rule, not just those killed. In other words, there were no reports of Ossetians deliberately killing Georgians on a massive scale, as the quote by Borisov suggests.
The quote only appears in a New York Times Article. There are no secondary sources, as all of the people who are quoting it, are citing the New York Times, or this Wikipedia Article, which is also citing the New York Times. Wikipedia rule states: "In order to be notable enough to appear in Wikipedia, an idea should be referenced extensively, and in a serious manner, in at least one major publication, or by a notable group or individual that is independent of the theory." I do not dispute that the NY Times is a major publication. But was the idea referenced in a serious manner? Not really, it was a quote from a second-string correspondent. And it wasn't referenced extensively. In fact, it was only printed in a single article. So the quote clearly fails the test of being "referenced extensively". Nor are there any debunking sources. The quote clearly breaks WP:Fringe.
But it doesn't stop there. Our article makes the fringe theory appear extremely notable. So notable that roughly half of the citations of the quote come not from the NY Times, but from Wikipedia. In short, our article is an engine driving that fringe theory forward, and Wikipedia is one of the two primary sources for it, the other being the NY Times. There are no other well-known, reliable and verifiable sources that discuss the idea. Furthermore our article presents this fringe theory as a fact! I have not seen a clearer case of WP:Fringe than the one regarding Borisov's quote. HistoricWarrior007 ( talk) 22:42, 28 August 2009 (UTC)
I don't this is such a huge issue. The Borisov quote is clearly unnecessary, since the previous sentence says basically the same (that the Ossetians are marauding.) One editor presented concerns about the quote (and I tend to agree), so there shouldn't be much of a problem with removing it. Offliner ( talk) 18:07, 31 August 2009 (UTC)