Available in | English |
---|---|
Founded | 2021 |
Founder(s) | Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett |
URL |
manifold |
Current status | Active |
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. [1] [2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana'. [3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars. [4]
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization. [5]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. [6] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, [7] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. [8]
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny. [6]
Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations at the value of 100 mana = $1 (USD), but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise, [9] allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling. [6] [10] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap". [11]
Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
Available in | English |
---|---|
Founded | 2021 |
Founder(s) | Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett |
URL |
manifold |
Current status | Active |
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. [1] [2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana'. [3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars. [4]
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization. [5]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. [6] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, [7] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. [8]
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny. [6]
Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations at the value of 100 mana = $1 (USD), but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise, [9] allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling. [6] [10] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap". [11]
Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.