Cost-of-storms-by-decade.jpg (474 × 374 pixels, file size: 28 KB, MIME type: image/jpeg)
The cost of extreme weather is rising rapidly and could reach four trillion dollars by 2020. source data: IPCC. Some of the increase is due to greater exposure such as building on the coast.
Note that the underlying cause (excess heat trapped in atmosphere by greenhouse gases) more closely fits a sigmoid curve. The logistic function or its functional neighbors (e.g., the Gompertz function) might produce a better extrapolation.
R : Copyright 2005, The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Version 2.2.0 2005-10-06....
decade <- c(1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990)
billions <- c(3.5, 5, 7.5, 13, 40)
new <- data.frame(decade = seq(1950, 2050, 1))
# for graphlb <- log(billions)
# enter log domain for nonnegative datapm <- lm(lb ~ poly(decade, 2))
summary(pm)
"... on 2 degrees of freedom, adjusted R-squared: 0.9839, p-value: 0.00804"
clim <- predict(pm, new, interval = "confidence")
# calculate confidence intervalseclim <- exp(clim)
# exit log domainmatplot(new$decade, eclim, lty = c(1, 3, 3), col = c("black", "brown", "brown"), type = "l", ylab = "billions", ylim=c(0,4000), xlab = "decade", xlim=c(1950,2020), main="average yearly inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar
cost of extreme weather events worldwide")
Thanks to Marc Schwartz for the R commands to create graphs with confidence intervals.
I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby release it into the
public domain. This applies worldwide. If this is not legally possible: |
This file is a candidate to be copied to
Wikimedia Commons.
Any user may perform this transfer; refer to Wikipedia:Moving files to Commons for details. If this file has problems with attribution, copyright, or is otherwise ineligible for Commons, then remove this tag and DO NOT transfer it; repeat violators may be blocked from editing. Other Instructions
| |||
|
Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.
Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 02:17, 21 December 2005 | 474 × 374 (28 KB) | Nrcprm2026 ( talk | contribs) | revision to Image:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.gif by James Salsman with 95% confidence intervals, in the nonnegative log domain, with 2 instead of 1 degrees of freedom, as requested at Talk:Global_warming#Image:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.gif |
You cannot overwrite this file.
Cost-of-storms-by-decade.jpg (474 × 374 pixels, file size: 28 KB, MIME type: image/jpeg)
The cost of extreme weather is rising rapidly and could reach four trillion dollars by 2020. source data: IPCC. Some of the increase is due to greater exposure such as building on the coast.
Note that the underlying cause (excess heat trapped in atmosphere by greenhouse gases) more closely fits a sigmoid curve. The logistic function or its functional neighbors (e.g., the Gompertz function) might produce a better extrapolation.
R : Copyright 2005, The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Version 2.2.0 2005-10-06....
decade <- c(1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990)
billions <- c(3.5, 5, 7.5, 13, 40)
new <- data.frame(decade = seq(1950, 2050, 1))
# for graphlb <- log(billions)
# enter log domain for nonnegative datapm <- lm(lb ~ poly(decade, 2))
summary(pm)
"... on 2 degrees of freedom, adjusted R-squared: 0.9839, p-value: 0.00804"
clim <- predict(pm, new, interval = "confidence")
# calculate confidence intervalseclim <- exp(clim)
# exit log domainmatplot(new$decade, eclim, lty = c(1, 3, 3), col = c("black", "brown", "brown"), type = "l", ylab = "billions", ylim=c(0,4000), xlab = "decade", xlim=c(1950,2020), main="average yearly inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar
cost of extreme weather events worldwide")
Thanks to Marc Schwartz for the R commands to create graphs with confidence intervals.
I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby release it into the
public domain. This applies worldwide. If this is not legally possible: |
This file is a candidate to be copied to
Wikimedia Commons.
Any user may perform this transfer; refer to Wikipedia:Moving files to Commons for details. If this file has problems with attribution, copyright, or is otherwise ineligible for Commons, then remove this tag and DO NOT transfer it; repeat violators may be blocked from editing. Other Instructions
| |||
|
Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.
Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 02:17, 21 December 2005 | 474 × 374 (28 KB) | Nrcprm2026 ( talk | contribs) | revision to Image:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.gif by James Salsman with 95% confidence intervals, in the nonnegative log domain, with 2 instead of 1 degrees of freedom, as requested at Talk:Global_warming#Image:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.gif |
You cannot overwrite this file.