The Three Warfares Doctrine is a Chinese doctrine of Hybrid warfare to exert its influence and shape government and public perception and behavior in foreign countries as well as within China with the end objective of building political power. The doctrine was approved by China's Central Military Commission in 2003 as a guiding conceptual umbrella for information operations for the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The three warfares described are: Psychological warfare, Overt and Covert Media manipulation and Exploitation of National and International Legal Systems. [1] [2] [3]
The doctrine is believed to be inspired from the Zhou dynasty strategist Sun Tzu's book The Art of War, in which is written "Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting" and seeks to break adversary resistance and achieve Chinese supremacy with little or no actual fighting. [3]
Anne-Marie Brady, politics researcher and professor at the University of Canterbury who specializes in Chinese politics, in her book Making the foreign serve China: managing foreigners in the People's Republic has described the tactics used including "Appointing foreigners with access to political power to high profile roles in Chinese companies or Chinese-funded entities in the host country." and "Co-opting foreign academics, entrepreneurs, and politicians to promote China’s perspective in the media and academia. Build up positive relations with susceptible individuals via shows of generous political hospitality in China." [4]
Implementation
The Three Warfares Doctrine has been noticed to have been implemented to exert influence in a number of countries and geo-political theatres.
Australia and New Zealand
According to Sascha Dov Bachmann (Professor in Law at the University of Canberra and Fellow NATO SHAPE Asia Pacific), China has since 2000, employed influence operations that have eroded the sovereignty of both Australia and New Zealand. It aims to undermine the integrity of the organic political processes in both countries to manufacture a friendly political environment for Beijing through the use of influence and disinformation campaigns. [5]
According to Anne-Marie Brady, the Chinese Government works with Chinese diaspora community organisations and ethnic Chinese media as part of a united front strategy to advance Chinese political and economic interests in New Zealand. Chinese Communist Party influence in New Zealand included working with diaspora organisations and local media to cultivate relationships with New Zealand business and politicians from the country's two major parties, National and Labour.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
The BRI project is seen as a key element of the Three Warfares Doctrine, seeking to create a debt-trap for unsuspecting nations and compromise the economic and political sovereignty of these nations. Through bribery and coercion, China has acquired allies and clients within the economic and political elites of these nations, and gets them to promote the acceptance of the BRI project in their respective nations. [6]
Covid-19 pandemic
During the Covid-19 pandemic, China used a vast disinformation campaign that COVID-19 originated outside of China. It used proxy accounts, bots and even Chinese government officials and diplomats to disseminate false stories on social media. For example, Chinese state-run media falsely claimed that COVID-19 had originated in South Korea and Italy. A Chinese diplomat Zhao Lijian shared a theory that a US Army service member had brought the virus to China. The German Interior Ministry also revealed that Chinese diplomats had urged Germany to report favorably on Chins's COVID-19 response efforts. China has also influenced the World Health Organisation to shape and steer its messaging in favour of China. Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO Director General consistently praised China's "effective" response but never criticized China for suppressing whistleblowers and ignoring WHO’s recommendations on how to stop the spread of COVID-19. [7]
Czech Republic
According to a Czech Republic's counter-intelligence agency Security Information Service (BIS) 2014 report, "China’s administration and its intelligence services have put an emphasis on gaining influence over Czech political and state structures and on gathering political intelligence, with active participation by select Czech elites, including politicians and state officials." [1]
South China Sea
Since 2013, China has aggressively implemented an effort of land reclamation and fortification of a number of islands in the South China Sea. The brazen reclamation projects and deployment of military assets in the islands shows China's efforts to undermine the psychological ability of the other claimants (Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, and Malaysia) to oppose its own. It has also deployed maritime militia in the region to create confusion among the navies of these nations. It has followed an aggressive messaging initiative using diplomatic pressure, news media and other mediums to promote narratives reinforcing the historicity of its claim and warning others to refrain from antagonism. [3] China has also consistently attempted to push narratives that show itself as the upholder of international law in the South China Sea region as well as its own interpretations of international law to oppose the other nations' positions and to delegitimize the arbitration process. [8]
United States
In April 2014, The Pentagon released a report where it said the PLA was using its Three warefares strategy and use of warned of China's use of coercive economic inducements and other non-traditional methods to weaken the resolve of the US and its regional partners to defend the islands and oceans of the South and East China seas. [9] In 2016, the Journal of Strategic Security reported that China uses the Three warefares strategy to influence the international community, and the United States in particular, to forestall the development and implementation of any counter strategy to its cyber espionage campaign which has resulted in losses of $338 billion to the US. [10]
Xinjiang
The Three Warfares Doctrine has been seen to have been used in Xinjiang even though it is an internal province of China. China's objectives of using Three Warfares is the implementation of the concept of "social management" as a means of preserving its hold on power. As a part of this, China implemented a Social Credit System through which it collects and analyses Metadata to shape and "score" the economic and social behavior of citizens. This scoring system allows for "predictive policing", enabling the state to make predictive assessments of perceived threats to its authority. [11]
References
- ^ a b Raska, Michael (18 December 2015). "China and the 'Three Warfares'". The Diplomat.
- ^ "China's Application of the 'Three Warfares' in the South China Sea and Xinjiang" (PDF). National Security College, Australian National University (ANU).
- ^ a b c "China's "Three Warfares" In Theory and Practice in the South China Sea". Georgetown Security Studies Review. 25 March 2018.
- ^ Lulu, Jichang (22 March 2019). "Make the foreign serve Huawei: An invitation-only presentation to demonstrate the company's openness". Sinopsis. Retrieved 18 September 2020.
- ^ Bachmann, Sascha DOV (2020). "The Silent Erosion of Sovereignty: A Sino–Australian Example". academia.edu. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- ^ Gershaneck, Professor Kerry. "To Win without Fighting Defining China's Political Warfare". US Marine Corps University. Retrieved 19 September 2020.
- ^ Ha, Mathew. "China's Coronavirus Disinformation Campaigns Are Integral to Its Global Information Warfare Strategy". FDD. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- ^ Kania, Elsa (22 August 2016). "The PLA's Latest Strategic Thinking on the Three Warfares". Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved 18 September 2020.
- ^ Garnaut, John (11 April 2014). "US unsettled by China's 'three warfares' strategy: Pentagon report". Sunday Morning Herald.
- ^ Iasiello, Emilio (2016). "China's Three Warfares Strategy Mitigates Fallout From Cyber Espionage Activities". JSS, University of South Florida. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- ^ Clarke, Michael (January 2019). "China's Application of the 'Three Warfares' in the South China Sea and Xinjiang". National Security College, Australian National University. Retrieved 18 September 2020.
The Three Warfares Doctrine is a Chinese doctrine of Hybrid warfare to exert its influence and shape government and public perception and behavior in foreign countries as well as within China with the end objective of building political power. The doctrine was approved by China's Central Military Commission in 2003 as a guiding conceptual umbrella for information operations for the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The three warfares described are: Psychological warfare, Overt and Covert Media manipulation and Exploitation of National and International Legal Systems. [1] [2] [3]
The doctrine is believed to be inspired from the Zhou dynasty strategist Sun Tzu's book The Art of War, in which is written "Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting" and seeks to break adversary resistance and achieve Chinese supremacy with little or no actual fighting. [3]
Anne-Marie Brady, politics researcher and professor at the University of Canterbury who specializes in Chinese politics, in her book Making the foreign serve China: managing foreigners in the People's Republic has described the tactics used including "Appointing foreigners with access to political power to high profile roles in Chinese companies or Chinese-funded entities in the host country." and "Co-opting foreign academics, entrepreneurs, and politicians to promote China’s perspective in the media and academia. Build up positive relations with susceptible individuals via shows of generous political hospitality in China." [4]
Implementation
The Three Warfares Doctrine has been noticed to have been implemented to exert influence in a number of countries and geo-political theatres.
Australia and New Zealand
According to Sascha Dov Bachmann (Professor in Law at the University of Canberra and Fellow NATO SHAPE Asia Pacific), China has since 2000, employed influence operations that have eroded the sovereignty of both Australia and New Zealand. It aims to undermine the integrity of the organic political processes in both countries to manufacture a friendly political environment for Beijing through the use of influence and disinformation campaigns. [5]
According to Anne-Marie Brady, the Chinese Government works with Chinese diaspora community organisations and ethnic Chinese media as part of a united front strategy to advance Chinese political and economic interests in New Zealand. Chinese Communist Party influence in New Zealand included working with diaspora organisations and local media to cultivate relationships with New Zealand business and politicians from the country's two major parties, National and Labour.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
The BRI project is seen as a key element of the Three Warfares Doctrine, seeking to create a debt-trap for unsuspecting nations and compromise the economic and political sovereignty of these nations. Through bribery and coercion, China has acquired allies and clients within the economic and political elites of these nations, and gets them to promote the acceptance of the BRI project in their respective nations. [6]
Covid-19 pandemic
During the Covid-19 pandemic, China used a vast disinformation campaign that COVID-19 originated outside of China. It used proxy accounts, bots and even Chinese government officials and diplomats to disseminate false stories on social media. For example, Chinese state-run media falsely claimed that COVID-19 had originated in South Korea and Italy. A Chinese diplomat Zhao Lijian shared a theory that a US Army service member had brought the virus to China. The German Interior Ministry also revealed that Chinese diplomats had urged Germany to report favorably on Chins's COVID-19 response efforts. China has also influenced the World Health Organisation to shape and steer its messaging in favour of China. Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO Director General consistently praised China's "effective" response but never criticized China for suppressing whistleblowers and ignoring WHO’s recommendations on how to stop the spread of COVID-19. [7]
Czech Republic
According to a Czech Republic's counter-intelligence agency Security Information Service (BIS) 2014 report, "China’s administration and its intelligence services have put an emphasis on gaining influence over Czech political and state structures and on gathering political intelligence, with active participation by select Czech elites, including politicians and state officials." [1]
South China Sea
Since 2013, China has aggressively implemented an effort of land reclamation and fortification of a number of islands in the South China Sea. The brazen reclamation projects and deployment of military assets in the islands shows China's efforts to undermine the psychological ability of the other claimants (Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, and Malaysia) to oppose its own. It has also deployed maritime militia in the region to create confusion among the navies of these nations. It has followed an aggressive messaging initiative using diplomatic pressure, news media and other mediums to promote narratives reinforcing the historicity of its claim and warning others to refrain from antagonism. [3] China has also consistently attempted to push narratives that show itself as the upholder of international law in the South China Sea region as well as its own interpretations of international law to oppose the other nations' positions and to delegitimize the arbitration process. [8]
United States
In April 2014, The Pentagon released a report where it said the PLA was using its Three warefares strategy and use of warned of China's use of coercive economic inducements and other non-traditional methods to weaken the resolve of the US and its regional partners to defend the islands and oceans of the South and East China seas. [9] In 2016, the Journal of Strategic Security reported that China uses the Three warefares strategy to influence the international community, and the United States in particular, to forestall the development and implementation of any counter strategy to its cyber espionage campaign which has resulted in losses of $338 billion to the US. [10]
Xinjiang
The Three Warfares Doctrine has been seen to have been used in Xinjiang even though it is an internal province of China. China's objectives of using Three Warfares is the implementation of the concept of "social management" as a means of preserving its hold on power. As a part of this, China implemented a Social Credit System through which it collects and analyses Metadata to shape and "score" the economic and social behavior of citizens. This scoring system allows for "predictive policing", enabling the state to make predictive assessments of perceived threats to its authority. [11]
References
- ^ a b Raska, Michael (18 December 2015). "China and the 'Three Warfares'". The Diplomat.
- ^ "China's Application of the 'Three Warfares' in the South China Sea and Xinjiang" (PDF). National Security College, Australian National University (ANU).
- ^ a b c "China's "Three Warfares" In Theory and Practice in the South China Sea". Georgetown Security Studies Review. 25 March 2018.
- ^ Lulu, Jichang (22 March 2019). "Make the foreign serve Huawei: An invitation-only presentation to demonstrate the company's openness". Sinopsis. Retrieved 18 September 2020.
- ^ Bachmann, Sascha DOV (2020). "The Silent Erosion of Sovereignty: A Sino–Australian Example". academia.edu. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- ^ Gershaneck, Professor Kerry. "To Win without Fighting Defining China's Political Warfare". US Marine Corps University. Retrieved 19 September 2020.
- ^ Ha, Mathew. "China's Coronavirus Disinformation Campaigns Are Integral to Its Global Information Warfare Strategy". FDD. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- ^ Kania, Elsa (22 August 2016). "The PLA's Latest Strategic Thinking on the Three Warfares". Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved 18 September 2020.
- ^ Garnaut, John (11 April 2014). "US unsettled by China's 'three warfares' strategy: Pentagon report". Sunday Morning Herald.
- ^ Iasiello, Emilio (2016). "China's Three Warfares Strategy Mitigates Fallout From Cyber Espionage Activities". JSS, University of South Florida. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- ^ Clarke, Michael (January 2019). "China's Application of the 'Three Warfares' in the South China Sea and Xinjiang". National Security College, Australian National University. Retrieved 18 September 2020.