2024 Atlantic hurricane season | |
---|---|
Seasonal boundaries | |
First system formed | Season not started |
Last system dissipated | Season not started |
Seasonal statistics | |
Total fatalities | None |
Total damage | None |
Related articles | |
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the next Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, 2024, about two weeks prior to the start of the season.
Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | [1] | |
Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | [2] | |
Record low activity | 1 | 0† | 0† | [2] | |
TSR | December 11, 2023 | 20 | 9 | 4 | [3] |
CSU | April 4, 2024 | 23 | 11 | 5 | [4] |
MFR | April 5, 2024 | 21 | 11 | N/A | [5] |
TSR | April 8, 2024 | 23 | 11 | 5 | [6] |
UA | April 8, 2024 | 21 | 11 | 5 | [7] |
MU | April 12, 2024 | 26 | 11 | 5 | [8] |
NCSU | April 16, 2024 | 15–20 | 10–12 | 3–4 | [9] |
UPenn | April 24, 2024 | 33 | N/A | N/A | [10] |
Actual activity | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
* June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. ( See all) |
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered. [1]
On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. [nb 1] [3] They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea, and the current El Niño that was predicted to weaken to a neutral stage by August 2024. [3] On April 4, 2024, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 210 units, citing the extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña by the summer. [4] On April 5, Météo-France (MFR) issued a prediction of 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. They cited warm sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and humidity. [5] On April 8, TSR updated their prediction, predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 217 units. They predicted that moderate La Niña conditions would occur in the summer and persist into fall and above average sea surface temperatures would also persist into summer. [6] On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units. [7] On April 12, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 26 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. [8] On April 16, NCSU issued their prediction of 15–20 named storms, 10–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes. [9] On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (+/- 6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming. [10]
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2024. [12] This is the same list used in the 2018 season, with the exceptions of Francine and Milton, which replaced Florence and Michael, respectively. [13]
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|
|
2024 Atlantic hurricane season | |
---|---|
Seasonal boundaries | |
First system formed | Season not started |
Last system dissipated | Season not started |
Seasonal statistics | |
Total fatalities | None |
Total damage | None |
Related articles | |
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the next Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, 2024, about two weeks prior to the start of the season.
Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | [1] | |
Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | [2] | |
Record low activity | 1 | 0† | 0† | [2] | |
TSR | December 11, 2023 | 20 | 9 | 4 | [3] |
CSU | April 4, 2024 | 23 | 11 | 5 | [4] |
MFR | April 5, 2024 | 21 | 11 | N/A | [5] |
TSR | April 8, 2024 | 23 | 11 | 5 | [6] |
UA | April 8, 2024 | 21 | 11 | 5 | [7] |
MU | April 12, 2024 | 26 | 11 | 5 | [8] |
NCSU | April 16, 2024 | 15–20 | 10–12 | 3–4 | [9] |
UPenn | April 24, 2024 | 33 | N/A | N/A | [10] |
Actual activity | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
* June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. ( See all) |
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered. [1]
On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. [nb 1] [3] They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea, and the current El Niño that was predicted to weaken to a neutral stage by August 2024. [3] On April 4, 2024, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 210 units, citing the extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña by the summer. [4] On April 5, Météo-France (MFR) issued a prediction of 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. They cited warm sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and humidity. [5] On April 8, TSR updated their prediction, predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 217 units. They predicted that moderate La Niña conditions would occur in the summer and persist into fall and above average sea surface temperatures would also persist into summer. [6] On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units. [7] On April 12, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 26 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. [8] On April 16, NCSU issued their prediction of 15–20 named storms, 10–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes. [9] On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (+/- 6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming. [10]
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2024. [12] This is the same list used in the 2018 season, with the exceptions of Francine and Milton, which replaced Florence and Michael, respectively. [13]
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