The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

The result of the move request was: moved to 1980 October Surprise theory. In appraising this discussion, I reviewed not just this RM itself, but also the sections Post RFC Discussion and Requested move 14 June 2023, which were effectively part of the same overall conversation. I read through the prior RfC as well, though discussion in that RfC largely pertained to the usage of the term "conspiracy theory" in this article's title, and thus it has less relevance to the specific questions under dispute here.

One of the main complicating factors in evaluating this discussion is that many of the participants expressed comparable levels of support for either title. However, some arguments were still made to support one proposed title above the other. It was noted that MOS:ALLEGED seems to prefer "allegations", but that "theory" is a broader term that captures the same idea; participants disputed whether adopting that broader term would be an improvement in neutrality, or a worsening of clarity. The question of WP:COMMONNAME was also somewhat fraught. In the original RfC, some sources were leveled to demonstrate usage of "theory"; meanwhile, it was claimed in this RM that "allegations" was more common in the academic literature, but no evidence was supplied to verify that claim. Honestly, I don't think there's a consensus for either specific title; however, the previous consensus to move away from "conspiracy theory" has showed no signs of changing, which leaves me in the position of needing to make a WP:NOTCURRENTTITLE close. Within this framework, I think "1980 October surprise theory" has the marginally stronger case, due to the sources provided in its support. However, if anyone has new arguments that they feel were not raised in this discussion, they may feel free to open a new RM at any time.

Finally, I wish to devote a bit of space to alternate titles that came up during the overarching discussion. At various points, people suggested just paring down the title to October Surprise (1980) or similar formulations, but these proposals largely failed to pick up traction due to the fact that no such surprise actually occurred. Additionally, some recent participants in the discussion suggested descriptive titles such as 1980 Iran hostage deal allegations that omit the term "October surprise" entirely, arguing that the term "October surprise" is not sufficiently WP:RECOGNIZABLE. While this view has attracted a few supporters recently, the fact that it went unmentioned for most of the two months of active discussion suggests to me that it's not a sufficiently widespread view to have consensus at this point. Again, as this is a WP:NOTCURRENTTITLE close, supporters of a descriptive title may launch a new RM at any time if they feel that the topic needs more focused consideration. ( closed by non-admin page mover) ModernDayTrilobite ( talk • contribs) 15:33, 30 June 2023 (UTC) reply

This RFC is meant to consider two move options: October Surprise conspiracy theory → 1980 October surprise theory or → 1980 October surprise allegations – A recent RFC yielded a consensus that this article should be moved. As the closer said, "there's consensus to change the title, but no consensus about what to change it to." In a post-rfc discussion, users were generally split between two options: 1980 October surprise allegations and 1980 October surprise theory. Because editors seem evenly split on preferring allegations/theory (most editors say they support either), I've started an RFC to get broader community input-- Jerome Frank Disciple 17:39, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply

!votes

• Support theory: First, as the last RFC noted, there is a consensus to move the page, largely because "conspiracy theory" is pejorative and it is not clear that all reliable sources treat the theory as a conspiracy theory. Second, "theory" is the better choice over "allegations": To start, "1980 October Surprise theory" is used by other sources (as I showed above), making it the more WP:COMMONNAME. That should be enough on its own. Still, to respond to the support for allegations: as @ LokiTheLiar: noted, per MOS:ALLEGED, alleged is appropriate when "wrongdoing is asserted but undetermined". But theory is an umbrella term that captures "allegation". And, rightly or wrongly, a few of the secondary sources we've previously gone over do treat the "allegations" as having been established/determined. Additionally, "alleged" is more often used in a criminal context (i.e. "prosecutors alleged"), which is inappropriate here. And I haven't heard any explanation as to why "theory" would be deficient. But I support allegations over the current name, and the discussion as to what the name should be has died down-- Jerome Frank Disciple 17:38, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Oppose but support move to allegations Sorry for not !voting above, but like I've explained above I think 1980 October Surprise Allegations is a clearly superior title. Loki ( talk) 17:43, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Support move to allegations. Rja13ww33 ( talk) 18:28, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Support "theory" I think it's a fine neutral description. Also, I would say that in 1980 "allegations" would have been the obvious choice, but by now it's more a theory. However, I have no objections to "allegations". As a third option I propose flipping a coin lest we end up with yet another RFC. -- Random person no 362478479 ( talk) 18:37, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Comment I weekly support adding 1980 to the title. I have no strong feelins on "Conspiracy theory" vs "allegations", a quick query on GS suggests both terms are used in academic literature. The latter seems more common, but sounds weirder to me given wiki naming conventions so... abstain on that. -- _{Piotr Konieczny aka Prokonsul Piotrus| reply here} 02:54, 21 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Support allegations but theory is also acceptable. KarlFrei ( talk) 14:51, 21 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Between these, I support move to allegations. To my ear, "theory" makes it sound more like punditry about the concept of a late-campaign announcement, whereas "allegations" better gets across the idea that this is a specific accusation of wrongdoing. — Kawnhr ( talk) 17:13, 26 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Support anything. Flip a coin if necessary. SilverLocust ( talk) 01:07, 28 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Support "theory" with 1980 ( Summoned by bot) if no better title can be found, but it fails the 'recognisability' test to anyone not already very up-to-speed on US pundit terminology. As I lived through it, I was aware of the intense humiliation heaped onto Carter by the delays in the hostage release until minutes after his presidency had finished, but I would never have guessed that this article was connected to those occurences from the title. When 'botted' here, I thought 'October Surprise' might be some kind of chocolate treat. Some suggestions below are more recognisable. Pincrete ( talk) 06:52, 28 June 2023 (UTC) reply

Discussion

Honestly, I'd like to request that you withdraw your withdrawal above. That !vote was not up for nearly enough time to come to any real conclusions. Loki ( talk) 17:45, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply

Actually, it's confusing me what the previous vote was even about. It seems like it might have also been to move to "theory"? But it was edited after the fact? Loki ( talk) 17:46, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply

Fixing now! I did an official withdrawal after the short-hand was just changed. There were only 3 votes after 6 days, but, also: there's no actual objective reason to preference theory or allegations: After DN's comments in the withdrawn RFC, the exact same number of users seem to have supported both (with the vast majority supporting either and small few supporting just allegations or just theory). I wish I could do an RM for both, but unfortunately that's not doable. I'm going to change the intro of this RFC to encourage people to say their selection.-- Jerome Frank Disciple 17:49, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply

I didn't get the vote either. But I guess I'll add mine. Rja13ww33 ( talk) 18:00, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply

• Pinging all editors in last RFC and subsequent discussion: @ Aquillion, Rja13ww33, Robertus Pius, S Marshall, Location, Random person no 362478479, XOR'easter, Rgr09, Fad Ariff, 3Kingdoms, Jack Upland, Alaexis, KarlFrei, Piotrus, Darknipples, and Huldra:-- Jerome Frank Disciple 17:49, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• Notified each of the WikiProjects to which this page belongs. [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]-- Jerome Frank Disciple 22:15, 20 June 2023 (UTC) reply
• 1980 allegations that representatives of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign made a secret deal with Iranian leaders to delay the release of American hostages until after the election between Reagan and President Jimmy Carter - there must be a better title. Propose: Allegations of deal to delay release of American embassy hostages in Iran. In ictu oculi ( talk) 10:26, 21 June 2023 (UTC) reply

  That title is way too long, but I could see something like 1980 Iran hostage deal allegations. Loki ( talk) 17:44, 23 June 2023 (UTC) reply

  I agree with the above. The term "October surprise" has become so thoroughly genericized — indeed, by the modern understanding, 1980 might not even qualify as an October surprise, since nothing actually happened — that using it in the title doesn't make clear what this article is actually about. To me, it sounds more like punditry or political science, applied to one specific election, rather than allegations of meddling and wrongdoing. 1980 Iran hostage deal allegations, as suggested by Loki, would be much clearer title. — Kawnhr ( talk) 17:14, 26 June 2023 (UTC) reply

  I think it's a little funny that this page is now starting to be split between users who are like "I've never heard of an October surprise outside of this context" and users who are like "the term October surprise has so thoroughly permeated our cultural lexicon that it's lost all connection from its origin"-- Jerome Frank Disciple 23:40, 26 June 2023 (UTC) reply

  Haha! Well, don't take my word for it… October surprise has examples for every US presidential election, and several midterm elections, of this millennium. — Kawnhr ( talk) 00:52, 27 June 2023 (UTC) reply